Orienting the causal relationship between imprecisely measured traits using GWAS summary data.
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Abstract
Inference about the causal structure that induces correlations between two traits can be achieved by combining genetic associations with a mediation-based approach, as is done in the causal inference test (CIT). However, we show that measurement error in the phenotypes can lead to the CIT inferring the wrong causal direction, and that increasing sample sizes has the adverse effect of increasing confidence in the wrong answer. This problem is likely to be general to other mediation-based approaches. Here we introduce an extension to Mendelian randomisation, a method that uses genetic associations in an instrumentation framework, that enables inference of the causal direction between traits, with some advantages. First, it can be performed using only summary level data from genome-wide association studies; second, it is less susceptible to bias in the presence of measurement error or unmeasured confounding. We apply the method to infer the causal direction between DNA methylation and gene expression levels. Our results demonstrate that, in general, DNA methylation is more likely to be the causal factor, but this result is highly susceptible to bias induced by systematic differences in measurement error between the platforms, and by horizontal pleiotropy. We emphasise that, where possible, implementing MR and appropriate sensitivity analyses alongside other approaches such as CIT is important to triangulate reliable conclusions about causality.
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The study performed MR and identified 17 unique proteins as putatively causal for AD (FDR-corrected P<0.05) with confirmed directionality using the Steiger test.
“We next performed MR47 and identified 17 unique proteins as putatively causal for AD (Fig. 4A, Supp. Table S40&41, FDR-corrected P<0.05) with confirmed directionality using the Steiger test52 (Supp. Table S42).”
From Proteogenomic analysis of human cerebrospinal fluid identifies neurologically relevant regulation and implicates causal proteins for Alzheimer’s disease (2024) · cites this paper as [52]
Directionality in the MR analysis was assessed using MR-Steiger.
“We analyzed directionality using MR-Steiger52.”
From Proteogenomic analysis of human cerebrospinal fluid identifies neurologically relevant regulation and implicates causal proteins for Alzheimer’s disease (2024) · cites this paper as [52]
Estimates from two-stage analyses with binary variables using logistic regression are sensitive to correct specification of the first-stage regression model.
“although in this case estimates are sensitive to correct specification of the first-stage regression model 74”
From Guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations (2020) · cites this paper as [74]
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- Authors
- Hemani, G., Tilling, K., & Davey Smith, G.
- Affiliations
- University of Bristol (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Hemani, Gibran
- Venue
- PLoS Genetics
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2017-11-17
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- e1007081
- ISSN
- 1553-7390 (ISSN-L)
- 1553-7404
- PMC
- PMC5711033
- OpenAlex
- W2770598799
- Cited by
- 2,607
- References
- 58
- Citations by year
- 2026: 308 · 2025: 603 · 2024: 851 · 2023: 392 · 2022: 191 · 2021: 121 · 2020: 69 · 2019: 42 · 2018: 23 · 2017: 7
- FWCI
- 25.33
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- PLoS Genetics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Explore Bristol Research (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Medical Research Council (GB) (MC_UU_12013/1, MC_UU_12013/9)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetic Associations and Epidemiology
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Molecular Biology › Epigenetics and DNA Methylation
- Keywords
- causal direction inference, measurement error, Mendelian randomization, mediation analysis, DNA methylation, gene expression, horizontal pleiotropy, unmeasured confounding, sensitivity analysis
- MeSH terms
- Gene Expression Regulation, Phenotype, Bias, Sample Size, DNA Methylation, Genome-Wide Association Study, Genetic Association Studies, Mendelian Randomization Analysis
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