Cited by 182Evolutionary Psychology and Human BehaviorCultural Differences and ValuesSocial and Intergroup Psychology

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Pathogens and Politics: Further Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism

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Abstract

According to a "parasite stress" hypothesis, authoritarian governments are more likely to emerge in regions characterized by a high prevalence of disease-causing pathogens. Recent cross-national evidence is consistent with this hypothesis, but there are inferential limitations associated with that evidence. We report two studies that address some of these limitations, and provide further tests of the hypothesis. Study 1 revealed that parasite prevalence strongly predicted cross-national differences on measures assessing individuals' authoritarian personalities, and this effect statistically mediated the relationship between parasite prevalence and authoritarian governance. The mediation result is inconsistent with an alternative explanation for previous findings. To address further limitations associated with cross-national comparisons, Study 2 tested the parasite stress hypothesis on a sample of traditional small-scale societies (the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample). Results revealed that parasite prevalence predicted measures of authoritarian governance, and did so even when statistically controlling for other threats to human welfare. (One additional threat-famine-also uniquely predicted authoritarianism.) Together, these results further substantiate the parasite stress hypothesis of authoritarianism, and suggest that societal differences in authoritarian governance result, in part, from cultural differences in individuals' authoritarian personalities.

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Overview

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TL;DR

Two studies support the parasite-stress hypothesis: historical pathogen prevalence predicted authoritarian governance across 31 countries, and this link was statistically mediated by individual authoritarianism. In 90 Standard Cross-Cultural Sample societies, pathogen prevalence also predicted authoritarian governance even when controlling for famine, malnutrition, and warfare, with famine independently predicting authoritarianism.

Key findings

  • Study 1 (31 countries): pathogen prevalence predicted all four authoritarian-governance measures (|r| = .47–.67, p < .01) and individual F-scale authoritarianism (r = .65, p < .001); its unique regression effect on individual authoritarianism was β = .73 (p = .04) controlling GDP per capita, GINI, education, and life-expectancy residual.
  • Study 1 mediation: individual authoritarianism mediated the pathogen-prevalence→authoritarian-governance relation, accounting for 77% of the effect on political rights, 63% on civil liberties, 60% on democracy, and 37% on property rights; the reverse mediation model accounted for only 31–48%.
  • Study 2 (90 SCCS societies): both pathogen measures predicted authoritarian governance (r = .42 and .29, p < .01); in multiple regressions, pathogen prevalence (β = .47) and famine (β = .36) were unique predictors (p < .001), and with Low’s pathogen-stress measure pathogen stress (β = .36) and famine (β = .34) were unique predictors (p < .005).
  • Study 2 item-level: pathogen prevalence uniquely predicted 11 of 12 authoritarian-governance variables; famine uniquely predicted 8 of 12; malnutrition predicted 1; warfare predicted none.

Methods

  • Study 1: cross-national correlational and mediation analyses on 31 countries with data on authoritarian governance (Freedom House political rights/civil liberties, Heritage property rights, Vanhanen democracy index), individual authoritarianism (Meloen’s mean non-student F-scale scores), and historical pathogen prevalence (9 diseases; α = .84); controls were GDP per capita (1980), GINI (1991–1996), UN Education Index (1990), and life-expectancy residual; mediation used 10,000 nonparametric bootstrapped samples.
  • Study 2: analyses on 90 Standard Cross-Cultural Sample societies; authoritarian governance was a 12-item composite from Ross’s “concentration of political power” variables (α = .94); pathogen prevalence was measured with Cashdan & Steele’s 10-pathogen index (α = .81) and Low’s 7-item total pathogen stress index (α = .77; the two correlated r = .87); controls were famine, malnutrition, and warfare; analyses used correlations and multiple regressions on the composite and its 12 constituent variables.

Limitations

  • Stated: the results cannot identify the specific underlying processes, cannot distinguish whether pathogen and famine effects reflect one general stress mechanism or multiple threat-specific mechanisms, and cannot confidently infer individual-level processes from population-level data.
  • Stated: effect-size differences between the nation-state and SCCS samples caution against firm conclusions about actual effect sizes, because nation-state results may be spuriously inflated (e.g., colonial processes) and SCCS results may be attenuated by measurement error in ethnographic codings.
  • Evident: both studies are correlational in design and cannot establish causality; Study 1 had relatively low statistical power (N = 31), and the ancillary region-level SCCS test was nonsignificant (r(6) = .67, p = .14).

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Crossref · 10.1371/journal.pone.0062275

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  • The quote only partly states this claim. 2
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  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Alternative explanations for the initial cross-national results remain unaddressed.

    “Although results from several initial studies support this “parasite stress” hypothesis of authoritarian governance [7], [8], alternative explanations for those results remain unaddressed.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Institutionalized forms of governance reflect the attitudes and values of the individuals who populate the local ecology.

    “To the extent that institutionalized forms of governance reflect the attitudes and values of the individuals who populate the local ecology, these lines of research have implications for predicting worldwide variability in authoritarian governance”
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Citations

Cites

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Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. Perry RL, Robertson JD (2002) Comparative analyses of nations: Quantitative approaches. Boulder CO: Westview Press.
  2. TH Henriksen, 2001, The rise and decline of rogue states, J Int Aff, 54, 349
  3. Murdock GP (1949). Social structure. Oxford, UK: Macmillan..

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Metadata

Authors
Murray, D. R., Schaller, M., & Suedfeld, P.
Affiliations
University of British Columbia (CA)
Corresponding author
Murray, Damian R.
Venue
PLoS ONE
Published
2013-05-01
Volume
8
Issue
5
Pages
e62275
ISSN
1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2091672012
Cited by
182
References
69
Citations by year
2026: 5 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 24 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 18
FWCI
16.71
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Evolutionary Psychology and Human Behavior
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Cultural Differences and Values
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social and Intergroup Psychology
Keywords
parasite prevalence, authoritarianism, authoritarian governance, authoritarian personality, small-scale societies, famine, cultural differences, cross-national differences
MeSH terms
Animals, Authoritarianism, Cross-Cultural Comparison, Food Supply, Government, Humans, Parasitic Diseases, Politics, Regression Analysis, Social Conditions, Social Dominance, Starvation, Warfare, Prevalence, Gross Domestic Product

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