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Meat Intake and Mortality: A Prospective Study of Over Half a Million People
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: High intakes of red or processed meat may increase the risk of mortality. Our objective was to determine the relations of red, white, and processed meat intakes to risk for total and cause-specific mortality. METHODS: The study population included the National Institutes of Health-AARP (formerly known as the American Association of Retired Persons) Diet and Health Study cohort of half a million people aged 50 to 71 years at baseline. Meat intake was estimated from a food frequency questionnaire administered at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regression models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) within quintiles of meat intake. The covariates included in the models were age, education, marital status, family history of cancer (yes/no) (cancer mortality only), race, body mass index, 31-level smoking history, physical activity, energy intake, alcohol intake, vitamin supplement use, fruit consumption, vegetable consumption, and menopausal hormone therapy among women. Main outcome measures included total mortality and deaths due to cancer, cardiovascular disease, injuries and sudden deaths, and all other causes. RESULTS: There were 47 976 male deaths and 23 276 female deaths during 10 years of follow-up. Men and women in the highest vs lowest quintile of red (HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.27-1.35], and HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.30-1.43], respectively) and processed meat (HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.12-1.20], and HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.20-1.31], respectively) intakes had elevated risks for overall mortality. Regarding cause-specific mortality, men and women had elevated risks for cancer mortality for red (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.16-1.29], and HR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.12-1.30], respectively) and processed meat (HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.06-1.19], and HR, 1.11 [95% CI 1.04-1.19], respectively) intakes. Furthermore, cardiovascular disease risk was elevated for men and women in the highest quintile of red (HR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.20-1.35], and HR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.37-1.65], respectively) and processed meat (HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.03-1.15], and HR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.26-1.51], respectively) intakes. When comparing the highest with the lowest quintile of white meat intake, there was an inverse association for total mortality and cancer mortality, as well as all other deaths for both men and women. CONCLUSION: Red and processed meat intakes were associated with modest increases in total mortality, cancer mortality, and cardiovascular disease mortality.
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“Consistent with this, while a minority of individual studies suggest similar cardiovascular risk for unprocessed red meat vs. processed meats,170, 171 many other individual studies and meta-analyses support much stronger effects of processed meats, including low-fat deli meats, on CVD (Figure 6).172-174”
From Dietary and Policy Priorities for Cardiovascular Disease, Diabetes, and Obesity: A Comprehensive Review (2016) · cites this paper as [170]
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“At very low levels of intake animal food consumption may not induce harm, providing high quality protein and iron, whereas excess animal food intake in HIC may be linked to adverse health outcomes, particularly from processed meats (70).”
From Food Consumption and its Impact on Cardiovascular Disease: Importance of Solutions Focused on the Globalized Food System (2015) · cites this paper as [70]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Sinha, R., Cross, A. J., Graubard, B. I., Leitzmann, M. F., & Schatzkin, A.
- Affiliations
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics (US)
- United States Department of Health and Human Services (US)
- Venue
- Archives of Internal Medicine
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 2009-03-23
- Volume
- 169
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 562
- ISSN
- 0003-9926 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC2803089
- OpenAlex
- W2159002413
- Cited by
- 543
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 26 · 2022: 25 · 2021: 37 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 46 · 2018: 28 · 2017: 42 · 2016: 29 · 2015: 34 · 2014: 25 · 2013: 47 · 2012: 40
- FWCI
- 39.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Archives of Internal Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (Z99 CA999999)
- National Cancer Institute (Z01CP010127)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Nutritional Studies and Diet
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Animal Science and Zoology › Meat and Animal Product Quality
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- red meat consumption, processed meat intake, meat consumption, mortality, cancer mortality, cardiovascular mortality, cause-specific mortality, AARP Diet and Health Study, older adults, dietary risk factors, fruit and vegetable intake, alcohol consumption, smoking, physical activity, hormone replacement therapy, body mass index, vitamin supplements
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Cardiovascular Diseases, Diet, Eating, Female, Humans, Male, Meat, Middle Aged, Neoplasms, Prospective Studies, United States
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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