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Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects
Open accessAbstract
Seasonal climate forecasts occupy an intermediate zone between weather forecasting and climate projections. They share with the numerical weather prediction the difficulty of initializing the simulations with a realistic state of the atmosphere and the need to periodically verify different aspects of their quality, while additionally are burdened by uncertainties in feedback processes that also play a central role in constraining climate projections. Seasonal predictions have to deal also with the challenge of initializing all the components of the climate system (ocean, sea ice, and land surface). The value of skilful seasonal forecasts is obvious for many societal sectors and is currently being included in the framework of developing climate services. Seasonal forecasts will in addition be valuable by increasing the acceptance of climate projections among the general public. This advanced‐review article presents an overview of the state‐of‐the‐art in global seasonal predictability and forecasting for climate researchers and discusses fundamental advances to increase forecast quality in the near future. The article concludes with a list of challenges where seasonal forecasting is expected to focus on in the near future. WIREs Clim Change 2013, 4:245–268. doi: 10.1002/wcc.217 This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Earth System Models Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge > Climate Science and Decision Making
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Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability
National Research Council (2010) · National Academies Press eBooks · doi:10.17226/12878 · Cited by 99
The Linear Response of ENSO to the Madden–Julian Oscillation
Zavala‐Garay, J., Zhang, C., Moore, A. M., & Kleeman, R. D. (2005) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3408.1 · Cited by 98
Coupled general circulation modeling of the tropical Pacific
Delécluse, P., Davey, M. K., Kitamura, Y., Philander, S. G., Suárez, M. J., & Bengtsson, L. O. (1998) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/97jc02546 · Cited by 97
Prediction Skill of the NAO and PNA from Daily to Seasonal Time Scales
Johansson, Å. (2007) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli4072.1 · Cited by 94
Zhao, M., Held, I. M., & Vecchi, G. A. (2010) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/2010mwr3366.1 · Cited by 93
Impact of Argo on analyses of the global ocean
Balmaseda, M., Anderson, D. L. T., & Vidard, A. (2007) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2007gl030452 · Cited by 91
Comparison of Some Statistical Methods of Probabilistic Forecasting of ENSO
Mason, S. J., & Mimmack, G. M. (2002) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0008:cossmo>2.0.co;2 · Cited by 90
Is unequal weighting significantly better than equal weighting for multi‐model forecasting?
DelSole, T., Yang, X., & Tippett, M. K. (2012) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.1961 · Cited by 90
Berner, J., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Palmer, T. N., et al. (2008) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0033 · Cited by 89
Self-citationDouville, H. (2009) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0508-1 · Cited by 88
How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead?
Folland, C. K., Scaife, A. A., Lindesay, J., & Stephenson, D. B. (2011) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.2314 · Cited by 88
Changing seasonal sea ice predictor relationships in a changing Arctic climate
Holland, M. M., & Stroeve, J. C. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2011gl049303 · Cited by 87
Seasonal climate predictability with Tier-one and Tier-two prediction systems
Kug, J., Kang, I., & Choi, D. (2007) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0264-7 · Cited by 87
Toward an Integrated Seasonal Forecasting System for South America
Coelho, C. A. S., Stephenson, D. B., Balmaseda, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., & van Oldenborgh, G. J. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3801.1 · Cited by 87
Self-citationUnderstanding forecast verification statistics
Mason, S. J. (2008) · Meteorological Applications · doi:10.1002/met.51 · Cited by 86
Evaluation of Atmospheric Fields from the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasts over a 15-Year Period
van Oldenborgh, G. J., Balmaseda, M., Ferranti, L., Stockdale, T., & Anderson, D. L. T. (2005) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3421.1 · Cited by 86
Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles
Weisheimer, A., Palmer, T. N., & Doblas-Reyes, F. J. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2011gl048123 · Cited by 84
Self-citationPeings, Y., Brun, E., Mauvais, V., & Douville, H. (2012) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2012gl054083 · Cited by 83
Kirtman, B. P., & Pirani, A. (2009) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/2008bams2707.1 · Cited by 82
Long-range forecasting and the Global Framework for Climate Services
GRAHAM, R., Yun, W.-T., Kim, J., Kumar, A., Jones, D. A., Bettio, L., Gagnon, N., Kolli, R. K., & Smith, D. (2010) · Climate Research · doi:10.3354/cr00963 · Cited by 82
Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts
Tippett, M. K., Barnston, A. G., & Li, S. (2011) · Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology · doi:10.1175/jamc-d-11-093.1 · Cited by 80
The Impact of Air–Sea Interactions on the Simulation of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability
Pegion, K., & Kirtman, B. P. (2008) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2008jcli2180.1 · Cited by 80
Schepen, A., Wang, Q. J., & Robertson, D. (2012) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2012jd018011 · Cited by 78
Alessandri, A., Borrelli, A., Navarra, A., Arribas, A., Déqué, M., Rogel, P., & Weisheimer, A. (2010) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/2010mwr3417.1 · Cited by 78
Model Fidelity versus Skill in Seasonal Forecasting
DelSole, T., & Shukla, J. (2010) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2010jcli3164.1 · Cited by 78
Statistical and dynamical downscaling of precipitation over Spain from DEMETER seasonal forecasts
DIEZ, E., Primo, C., García-Moya, J. A., Gutiérrez, J. M., & Orfila, B. (2005) · Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography · doi:10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14698 · Cited by 77
Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Balmaseda, M., Weisheimer, A., & Palmer, T. N. (2011) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2010jd015394 · Cited by 76
Self-citationImpact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts
Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Hagedorn, R., Palmer, T. N., & Morcrette, J. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl025061 · Cited by 76
Self-citationWang, H., Schemm, J.-K. E., Kumar, A., Wang, W., Long, L. N., Chelliah, M., Bell, G. D., & Peng, P. (2009) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2009jcli2753.1 · Cited by 73
Vannière, B., Guilyardi, É., Madec, G., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., & Woolnough, S. J. (2012) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1429-6 · Cited by 72
Self-citationSensitivity of decadal predictions to the initial atmospheric and oceanic perturbations
Du, H. N., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., García‐Serrano, J., Guémas, V., Soufflet, Y., & Wouters, B. (2012) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1285-9 · Cited by 67
Self-citationSeasonal ensemble forecasts: Are recalibrated single models better than multimodels?
Weigel, A. P., Liniger, M. A., & Appenzeller, C. (2009) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/2008mwr2773.1 · Cited by 66
Skill of Multimodel ENSO Probability Forecasts
Tippett, M. K., & Barnston, A. G. (2008) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/2008mwr2431.1 · Cited by 64
Dynamical downscaling of ECMWF Ensemble seasonal forecasts over East Africa with RegCM3
Diro, G. T., Tompkins, A. M., & Bi, X. (2012) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2011jd016997 · Cited by 62
Frías, M. D., Herrera, S., Cofiño, A. S., & Gutiérrez, J. M. (2009) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2009jcli2824.1 · Cited by 62
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Douville, H. (2004) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0386-5 · Cited by 60
Hawkins, E., Robson, J. I., Sutton, R. T., Smith, D. M., & Keenlyside, N. S. (2011) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1023-3 · Cited by 59
Climate–society feedbacks and the avoidance of dangerous climate change
Jarvis, A. J., Leedal, D. T., & Hewitt, C. N. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1586 · Cited by 57
Ensemble 1‐Year predictions of Arctic sea ice for the spring and summer of 2008
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Medium-Range, Monthly, and Seasonal Prediction for Europe and the Use of Forecast Information
Rodwell, M. J., & Doblas-Reyes, F. J. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3944.1 · Cited by 54
Self-citationForecasting the number of extreme daily events on seasonal timescales
Hamilton, E., Eade, R., Graham, R., Scaife, A. A., Smith, D. M., Maidens, A., & MacLachlan, C. (2011) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2011jd016541 · Cited by 52
Methods and Resources for Climate Impacts Research
Challinor, A. J., Osborne, T., Morse, A. P., Shaffrey, L., Wheeler, T., Weller, H., & Vidale, P. L. (2009) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/2008bams2403.1 · Cited by 52
Predictability of seasonal climate variations: a pedagogical review
Shukla, J., & Kinter, J. L. (2006) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511617652.013 · Cited by 45
LaRow, T. E., Stefanova, L., Shin, D., & Cocke, S. D. (2010) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2009gl041459 · Cited by 43
Improving Extraseasonal Summer Rainfall Prediction by Merging Information from GCMs and Observations
Lang, X., & Wang, H. (2010) · Weather and Forecasting · doi:10.1175/2010waf2222342.1 · Cited by 43
Dynamical Extended-Range Prediction of Early Monsoon Rainfall over India
Vitart, F., & Molteni, F. (2008) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/2008mwr2761.1 · Cited by 40
A Prediction Model for Atlantic Named Storm Frequency Using a Year-by-Year Increment Approach
Fan, K. (2010) · Weather and Forecasting · doi:10.1175/2010waf2222406.1 · Cited by 39
Impact of Global Ocean Surface Warming on Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Prediction
Luo, J., Behera, S. K., Masumoto, Y., & Yamagata, T. (2010) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2010jcli3645.1 · Cited by 38
Realistic greenhouse gas forcing and seasonal forecasts
Liniger, M. A., Mathis, H., Appenzeller, C., & Doblas-Reyes, F. J. (2007) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2006gl028335 · Cited by 35
Self-citationProbabilistic prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using global climate models
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Seasonal Predictability of Wintertime Precipitation in Europe Using the Snow Advance Index
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Quantifying the Predictability of Winter River Flow in Iberia. Part I: Interannual Predictability
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Predictability of Cold Spring Seasons in Europe
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Multi-model calibration and combination of tropical seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts
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Impact of greenhouse gas concentrations on tropical storms in coupled seasonal forecasts
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Self-citation(2003) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016
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Metadata
- Authors
- Doblas‐Reyes, F. J., García‐Serrano, J., Lienert, F., Biescas, A. P., & Rodrigues, L. R. L.
- Venue
- WIREs Climate Change
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2013-06-14
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 245-268
- ISSN
- 1757-7780 (ISSN-L)
- 1757-7799
- OpenAlex
- W2160581812
- Cited by
- 478
- References
- 160
- FWCI
- 18.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
