Assessing shortnose sturgeon response to estuarine dredging in the Savannah River using a before-after control-impact (BACI) approach
Open accessAbstract
Estuaries are productive ecosystems that support diverse aquatic species and human economies through fisheries, recreation, and navigation. However, coastal development and dredging have altered the ecological processes of estuarine habitats. In the Savannah River estuary, the Savannah Harbor Expansion Project (SHEP) deepened the river’s navigational channel by dredging to amplify vessel commerce. The endangered shortnose sturgeon ( Acipenser brevirostrum ) relies on estuarine habitat in the Savannah River to complete its life cycle; the SHEP dredging was predicted to decrease estuarine habitat availability for the local population of shortnose sturgeon. To assess population trends in relation to the SHEP, we conducted mark-recapture sampling for shortnose sturgeon in the Savannah River in the summers of 2013–2024 and used Huggins closed population capture-recapture models to estimate annual juvenile and adult abundances. We applied a before-after control-impact (BACI) model approach to compare changes in demographic-based abundances over time in the Savannah River to abundances in the geographically proximate, relatively unaltered Altamaha River. The BACI model indicated a significant decline in juvenile abundance in the Savannah River during and after the SHEP, while adult abundance remained unchanged. The timeframe of this decline and the absence of juvenile declines in the reference river suggest it may be associated with dredging via the SHEP. Juvenile declines may further threaten recovery of the Savannah River population. Continued population-level monitoring efforts and protection of the remaining estuarine habitat are critical for the long-term persistence of the Savannah River shortnose sturgeon population.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Using 12 years of mark-recapture data and a before-after control-impact (BACI) design comparing the dredged Savannah River to the relatively unaltered Altamaha River, this study found a significant decline in juvenile shortnose sturgeon abundance in the Savannah River during and after the Savannah Harbor Expansion Project (SHEP), while adult abundance showed no significant BACI interaction. The authors suggest the juvenile decline may be associated with SHEP dredging and could threaten recovery of the Savannah River population.
Key findings
- Juvenile abundance in the Savannah River declined significantly from the before period (2013–2019) to the during/after period (2020–2024) relative to the Altamaha River (BACI time × river interaction, p < 0.01); the Altamaha showed a non-significant increase (p = 0.21). Before the SHEP, juvenile abundance did not differ significantly between rivers (Savannah before = 5.79, se = 0.47; Altamaha before = 5.13, se = 0.36; p = 0.18).
- Savannah River juvenile point estimates ranged from 15 juveniles in both 2023 (95% CI = 8–49) and 2024 (95% CI = 5–58) to 603 juveniles in 2018 (95% CI = 347–1084). Altamaha juvenile estimates ranged from 31 in 2018 (95% CI = 8–132) to 1000 in 2020 (95% CI = 406–2576).
- Adult abundance showed no significant BACI interaction (p = 0.38). Savannah adult estimates ranged from 634 in 2021 (95% CI = 357–1217) to 3886 in 2019 (95% CI = 1184–13,511); Altamaha adult estimates ranged from 249 in 2015 (95% CI = 63–1267) to 3575 in 2017 (95% CI = 1821–7271). Adult abundance declined in both rivers from before to after the SHEP, but the change was non-significant.
- Sampling in the Savannah River totaled 2701 nets, 1796 h of effort, 2084 shortnose sturgeon captures, and 99 recaptures (5%); the Altamaha River totaled 2013 nets, 1663 h, 1601 captures, and 55 recaptures (3%).
Methods
- Long-term mark-recapture sampling occurred every summer from 2013 to 2024 in the Savannah and Altamaha River estuaries, using anchored monofilament gill and trammel nets in low-salinity reaches; captured fish were measured, PIT-tagged if untagged, and released. Fish were classified as juveniles (< 450 mm fork length) or adults (≥ 450 mm fork length).
- Annual juvenile and adult abundances were estimated separately for each river and year using Huggins closed-population capture-recapture models in RMark, with candidate models including constant, time-varying, group-varying, and time × group capture probabilities; the top model was selected by AICc and Akaike weight.
- BACI linear models used log-transformed annual abundance point estimates as the response, with time (before 2013–2019 vs during/after 2020–2024), river (Altamaha reference vs Savannah impact), and their interaction as fixed effects; juvenile and adult abundances were modeled separately.
Limitations
- The paper states that some years lacked captures or recaptures to produce viable abundance estimates, including Savannah River years in the “after” period, and that the BACI model used point estimates despite potentially large 95% confidence intervals; missing years could have altered the BACI results.
- The paper states that Huggins models assume closure, but recent telemetry found adults may make interriver migrations outside the summer sampling window, so adult abundances may include some non-natal individuals and exclude some natal individuals.
- The paper states that it did not measure salinity or dissolved oxygen or investigate mechanisms, so the SHEP-related association is not a demonstrated cause; the authors describe SHEP habitat alteration as a parsimonious explanation. An evident limitation is that the BACI design uses one impact and one reference system, which limits broader causal inference.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
6 of 56 cited sources checked · 2 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Findingown data
Before the SHEP, adult abundances were not significantly different between Altamaha and Savannah rivers (Altamaha before = 7.43, se = 0.32; Savannah before = 7.54, se = 0.42; p = 0.8).
“Before the SHEP, adult abundances were not significantly different between the Altamaha and Savannah rivers (Altamaha before = 7.43, se = 0.32; Savannah before = 7.54, se = 0.42; p = 0.8; Table 6), with adult abundance in the Savannah River being slightly greater (Fig. 5).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Abundance estimates could not be calculated in Altamaha River in 2013 and 2014 because there were either no capture events or recapture events in those sampling seasons.
“We could not calculate abundance estimates in the Altamaha River in 2013 and 2014 because there were either no capture events or recapture events in those sampling seasons (Figs. 2 and 3; Table 1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The top Huggins closed capture model varied among years for each study river.
“The top Huggins closed capture model, based on Akaike weight, varied among years for each study river (Tables 2 and 3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In the Altamaha River, no significant temporal change in juvenile abundance was observed from before to after the SHEP.
“whereas significant temporal change in juvenile abundance was not observed in the Altamaha River (Table 6).”
- Also stated in: § Results · plain
“while the Altamaha River showed a non-significant increase (Altamaha after = 5.84, se = 0.54, p = 0.21; Table 6) in juvenile abundance (Fig. 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Results · plain
- Findingown data
In Altamaha River, adult abundance estimates varied from a minimum of 249 adults in 2015 to a maximum of 3575 adults in 2017.
“Adult abundance estimates in the Altamaha River varied from a minimum of 249 adults (95% CI = 63-1267) in 2015 to a maximum of 3575 adults (95% CI = 1821-7271) in 2017 (Fig. 3; Table 5).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- Findingown data
In the after period, juvenile abundance significantly declined in the Savannah River (interaction = 1.58, se = 0.77, p < 0.01).
“In the period of the SHEP's progress and following completion of dredging, juvenile abundance significantly declined in the Savannah River (interaction = 1.58, se = 0.77, p < 0.01), while the Altamaha River showed a non-significant increase (Altamaha after = 5.84, se = 0.54, p = 0.21; Table 6) in juvenile abundance (Fig. 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In Altamaha River, the time covariate was included in the top model in every year for which an estimate could be produced.
“In the Altamaha River, the time covariate was included in the top model in every year for which an estimate could be produced.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The BACI model did not indicate a significant interaction (p = 0.38) between time and river for adult abundance estimates.
“The BACI model results did not indicate a significant interaction (p = 0.38) between the model effects of time and river when evaluating adult abundance estimates (Table 6).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The BACI model found a significant interaction (p < 0.01) between time (before-after) and river (Altamaha-Savannah) for juvenile abundance estimates.
“The BACI model results noted a significant interaction (p < 0.01) between time (before-after) and river (Altamaha-Savannah) when evaluating juvenile abundance estimates (Table 6).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Reasonable estimates of juvenile abundance could not be calculated in 2021 in Savannah River because not enough juveniles were recaptured.
“We could not calculate reasonable estimates of juvenile abundance in 2021 in the Savannah River because not enough juveniles were recaptured in that sampling season (Fig. 2; Table 1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In Altamaha River, juvenile abundance varied from a minimum of 31 juveniles in 2018 to a maximum of 1000 juveniles in 2020.
“For the Altamaha River, estimates of juvenile abundance varied from a minimum of 31 juveniles (95% CI = 8-132) in 2018 to a maximum of 1000 juveniles in 2020 (95% CI = 406-2576) (Fig. 2; Table 4).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In Savannah River, the time covariate was included in the top model in every year for which an estimate of abundance could be calculated.
“In the Savannah River, the time covariate was included in the top model in every year for which an estimate of abundance could be calculated.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In Savannah River, point estimates of juvenile abundance varied from a minimum of 15 juveniles in 2023 and 2024 to a maximum of 603 juveniles in 2018.
“Over the study period in the Savannah River, point estimates of juvenile abundance varied from a minimum of 15 juveniles in both 2023 and 2024 (2023 95% CI = 8-49; 2024 = 5-58) to a maximum of 603 juveniles in 2018 (95% CI = 347-1084) (Fig. 2; Table 4).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In Savannah River, adult abundance estimates varied from a minimum of 634 adults in 2021 to a maximum of 3886 adults in 2019.
“Adult abundance estimates in the Savannah River varied from a minimum of 634 adults in 2021 (95% CI = 357-1217) to a maximum of 3886 adults in 2019 (95% CI = 1184-13,511) (Fig. 3; Table 5).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In the period during and after SHEP, a non-significant temporal change in adult abundance was observed in both Altamaha (p = 0.95) and Savannah (interaction = 6.84, se = 0.66, p = 0.38).
“In the period of the SHEP's progression and following completion of dredging, a non-significant temporal change in adult abundance was observed in both the Altamaha River (Altamaha after = 7.40, se = 0.48, p = 0.95) and the Savannah River (interaction = 6.84, se = 0.66, p = 0.38; Table 6).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In the Savannah River, juvenile abundance significantly declined from the before period (2013-2019) to the after period (2020-2024) during and after the SHEP, based on BACI model.
“The BACI model indicated a significant decline in juvenile abundance in the Savannah River during and after the SHEP, while adult abundance remained unchanged.”
- Also stated in: § Results · hedged
“This interaction indicated that a significant decline occurred in juvenile abundance from the before period to the after period in the Savannah River, whereas significant temporal change in juvenile abundance was not observed in the Altamaha River (Table 6).”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · boosted
“we documented that, compared to the nearby Altamaha River, there was a significant decline in juvenile abundance of the Savannah River shortnose sturgeon population that occurred in conjunction with and after the channel deepening via the SHEP.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Results · hedged
- Findingown data
Savannah River juvenile shortnose sturgeon abundances were lower every year after the SHEP.
“we consistently saw lower Savannah River juvenile abundances every year after the SHEP”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The study area is closed to immigration and emigration during the sampling period.
- Findingown data
The BACI model did not detect a statistically significant time × river interaction for adult abundance (estimate -0.59, se 0.66, p = 0.38).
“Interaction (time × river) | -0.59 | 0.66 | 0.38”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The study area is closed to immigration and emigration during the sampling period.
- Findingown data
The BACI model detected a statistically significant time × river interaction for juvenile abundance (estimate -3.55, se 0.77, p < 0.01).
“Interaction (time × river) | -3.55 | 0.77 | < 0.01*”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The study area is closed to immigration and emigration during the sampling period.
- Interpretationown data
Juvenile declines may further threaten recovery of the Savannah River population.
“Juvenile declines may further threaten recovery of the Savannah River population.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The observed juvenile decline in Savannah River may be associated with dredging via the SHEP.
“The timeframe of this decline and the absence of juvenile declines in the reference river suggest it may be associated with dredging via the SHEP.”
- Also stated in: § Data analysis · hedged
“Because both rivers are likely experiencing the same general environmental conditions, such a difference may be a result of the SHEP.”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
“The SHEP-related major habitat alterations to the Savannah River are a parsimonious explanation for the observed juvenile population in that estuary.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Both the Savannah River and Altamaha River experience similar natural conditions (weather, seasonal patterns, environmental perturbations) due to their geographic proximity.
- Also stated in: § Data analysis · hedged
- Premisecitation
The SHEP deepened the Savannah River navigational channel by approximately 1.5 m to allow larger cargo ships to access the container port.
“The SHEP was a multi-year channel deepening modification to 60 river kilometers (rkm) of the estuary, which deepened the channel by approximately 1.5 m to allow larger cargo ships to access the container port (USACE 2012).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites USACE 2012
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Dredging for the SHEP was conducted by USACE in the Savannah River estuary from September 2019 to March 2022.
“The most recent harbor modification was the Savannah Harbor Expansion Plan (SHEP), in which dredging was conducted by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) in the estuary from September 2019-March 2022 (USACE 2025).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites USACE 2025
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationreasoning
The juvenile decline in Savannah River is not a regional phenomenon.
“Although we did not investigate mechanisms for the decline of juveniles in the Savannah River, the fact that there was not a similar decline in the Altamaha River suggests that this is not a regional phenomenon.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Exposure to suspended sediments can result in higher mortality of fishes, particularly among early life stages.
“Exposure to suspended sediments can result in higher mortality of fishes, particularly among early life stages (Auld and Schubel 1978;Griffin et al. 2009;Lowe et al. 2015), and the subsequent decreased recruitment to the adult population can potentially lead to long-term population declines (Wenger et al. 2017).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked - Interpretationreasoning
Variations in interannual abundance in the Altamaha River are likely due to natural changes (e.g., climate and hydrology) rather than an anthropogenic perturbation.
“Therefore, variations in interannual abundance in the Altamaha River are likely due to potential “natural” changes (e.g., climate and hydrology) rather than an anthropogenic perturbation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The Altamaha River is anthropogenically unaltered relative to the Savannah River.
- Interpretationreasoning
The shortnose sturgeon populations targeted in this study are closed during summer months.
“providing additional evidence that our targeted populations of shortnose sturgeon are closed during summer months.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
A consistent disturbance is likely disrupting the Savannah River population of shortnose sturgeon.
“suggesting that a consistent disturbance is likely disrupting the river's population of shortnose sturgeon.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The geographic proximity of the Altamaha River to the Savannah River suggests that both shortnose sturgeon populations would experience similar effects.
“its geographic proximity to the Savannah River would suggest that both populations would experience similar effects.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites SSSRT 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationown data
Further loss of nursery habitat used by juvenile fish may pose a major threat to juvenile shortnose sturgeon survival in the Savannah River.
“Our results suggest that further loss of nursery habitat used by juvenile fish may pose a major threat to juvenile survival”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
The benthic nature of shortnose sturgeon increases the likelihood that individuals experience direct mortality from dredging operations while inhabiting the Savannah River estuary.
“The benthic nature of shortnose sturgeon increases the likelihood for individuals to experience direct mortality from dredging operations while inhabiting the estuary of the Savannah River (Dadswell et al. 1984;Collins et al. 2002).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Dadswell et al. 1984
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Collins et al. 2002
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductcitation
The 450 mm fork length threshold allowed conservative assignment of fish to demographic groups because fork length at sexual maturity across the species range is 450-550 mm, depending on sex.
“This 450 mm fork length allowed us to conservatively assign fish to a demographic group because fork length at sexual maturity across the species range is 450-550 mm, depending on sex (Dadswell et al. 1984;NMFS 1998).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Dadswell et al. 1984
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites NMFS 1998
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Length frequency analysis breaks down for shortnose sturgeon older than age-1 because length modes overlap due to differences in individual growth.
“Length frequency analysis is useful for assigning individual fish to age-1 cohorts in shortnose sturgeon, but this method breaks down for individuals older than age-1, as the distribution of length modes-representative of presumed age-classesoverlap due to differences in individual growth (Rider et al. 2025).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Rider et al. 2025
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
The upper Savannah River estuary serves as nursery habitat for juveniles that cannot yet tolerate much salinity.
“The upper Savannah River estuary serves as nursery habitat for juveniles that cannot yet tolerate much salinity (Hall et al. 1991;Jenkins et al. 1993;Collins et al. 2002).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Hall et al. 1991 source
- cites Jenkins et al. 1993
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Collins et al. 2002
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning
Because of inter-river movements, anthropogenic threats within the Savannah River may pose threats to other populations of shortnose sturgeon beyond the scope of this study.
“Because of these inter-river movements, anthropogenic threats within the Savannah River may pose threats to other populations of shortnose sturgeon beyond the scope of this study.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Salinity tolerance in shortnose sturgeon increases with size and age.
“However, salinity tolerance in shortnose sturgeon increases with size and age (Jenkins et al. 1993).”
- Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
“Salinity tolerance is size-and temperature-based; once juveniles are large enough, they join adults in foraging in the estuary in fall and winter (Hall et al. 1991;Jenkins et al. 1993).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Jenkins et al. 1993
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
- Study design and conductnone given
The study did not measure environmental variables of salinity and dissolved oxygen concentrations from the SHEP that could influence abundance of the Savannah River shortnose sturgeon population.
“Our study did not measure the environmental variables of salinity and dissolved oxygen concentrations from the SHEP that could influence abundance of the Savannah River shortnose sturgeon population.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Tolerance to water temperature increases with body size in shortnose sturgeon.
“Because tolerance to water temperature increases with body size in shortnose sturgeon (Ziegeweid et al. 2008), increasing water temperatures from a changing climate will be more detrimental to juvenile survival than adults”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Ziegeweid et al. 2008 source
- Premisecitation
Movement of shortnose sturgeon during the summer sampling period is limited in southern rivers, as fish aggregate in tidally influenced holding areas with little to no saltwater intrusion to alleviate environmental stressors that occur in summer months.
“Movement of shortnose sturgeon during our sampling period is limited in southern rivers, as fish aggregate in tidally influenced holding areas with little to no saltwater intrusion to alleviate environmental stressors that occur in summer months (Hall et al. 1991;Collins et al. 2002;Ingram and Peterson 2018).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked - Premisecitation
Prior studies assessing population abundances in coastal rivers of Georgia distributed sampling effort evenly throughout suspected summer holding areas as well as habitat above and below these areas.
“prior studies assessing population abundances in coastal rivers of Georgia featured effort that was evenly distributed throughout suspected summer holding areas as well as habitat above and below these areas.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Premisecitation
Efforts outside of the suspected summer holding areas did not yield captures during the summer sampling period.
“Efforts outside of the suspected summer holding areas did not yield captures during the summer sampling period (Altamaha River: Peterson and Bednarski 2013;Savannah River: Bahr and Peterson 2017)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Study design and conductown data
In a few years of the study, juvenile or adult abundance could not be quantified in either study river with the Huggins closed population capture-recapture models because those years lacked captures or recaptures to produce viable estimates.
“There were a few years in our study in which abundance estimates could not be quantified for juveniles or adults in either study river with the Huggins closed population capture-recapture models, as those years lacked captures or recaptures to produce viable estimates.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
In warmer months, both juvenile and adult shortnose sturgeon move upriver and aggregate in areas with little to no salinity in the freshwater/saltwater interface of the Savannah River.
“In warmer months, both juveniles and adults will move upriver and aggregate in areas with little to no salinity in the freshwater/saltwater interface of the Savannah River (Hall et al. 1991;Ingram and Peterson 2018).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Premisecitation
Adult and juvenile shortnose sturgeon can potentially be entrained by dredging equipment when inhabiting the channelized portion of the Savannah River estuary or areas that are dredged in the estuary.
“Adult and juvenile fish can potentially be entrained by dredging equipment when inhabiting the channelized portion of the Savannah River estuary, or areas that are dredged in the estuary (Reine et al. 2014;Chapman et al. 2019).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Reine et al. 2014
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Chapman et al. 2019 source
- Study design and conductreasoning
Assessing how the Savannah River shortnose sturgeon population changed during the SHEP required long-term data from both the Savannah River and the Altamaha River for comparison.
“we needed not only long-term data from Savannah River, but also similar data from the Altamaha River for comparison.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
The reference in BACI accounts for natural variability that may influence the dependent variable of both the reference and treatment over the duration of the study.
“The reference accounts for natural variability that may influence the dependent variable of both the reference and treatment over the duration of the study (Smith 2002).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Smith 2002 source
- Study design and conductreasoning
The BACI model results may have been altered if the missing years of juvenile abundance estimates could have been quantified.
“Thus, our BACI model results may have been altered if those missing years of juvenile abundance estimates could have been quantified.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 14
- May combine two claims. 11
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationFish using the navigational channel in the Savannah River estuary are vulnerable to vessel strikes.
“Fish using the navigational channel in the Savannah River estuary will be vulnerable to vessel strikes”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked- cites Brown and Murphy 2010 source
- cites Balazik et al. 2012 source
- cites Hondorp et al. 2017 source
The Discussion (page unavailable) links navigation-channel use by Lake Sturgeon in the lower Detroit River to increased vulnerability to ship strikes. The Introduction also says fish in shipping routes may be injured or killed by vessels. Neither passage addresses fish in the Savannah River estuary, so the location-specific claim extends beyond the source. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationRecent telemetry studies found that adult shortnose sturgeon may make frequent inter-river migrations, but those migrations occurred outside the summer sampling window.
“recent telemetry studies found that adults may make frequent interriver migrations-but that those migrations occurred outside our summer sampling window (Nolan et al. 2025;2026).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites Nolan et al. 2025 source
The paper’s movement-pattern passage (labelled Abstract in our copy; no page given) places the two tracked adults’ inter-river migrations around the winter–spring spawning window, outside summer. It documents repeated movements by those two fish, but says the proportion of adults that migrate this way is unknown; it does not establish that such migrations are frequent among adults generally. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites Nolan et al. 2026 source
The Results report inter-river migration in 48 of 206 tracked sturgeon. The Discussion (page unavailable) says some migrants crossed the coast annually and that migrations from the Altamaha and Savannah rivers typically occurred during the December–April spawning window, outside summer. It does not establish that all such migrations occurred outside the citing authors’ summer sampling window. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationLess suitable habitat can increase intraspecific competition, potentially increasing density-dependent mortality in juvenile fish.
“Additionally, less suitable habitat can increase intraspecific competition (Dadswell et al. 1984;Ross 1997), potentially increasing density-dependent mortality in juvenile fish (Hixon and Jones 2005;Lorenzen and Camp 2019).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked- cites Dadswell et al. 1984
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Ross 1997
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Hixon and Jones 2005 source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationVessel strikes can result in injury or mortality to fish inhabiting navigational channels, with larger adult individuals being more susceptible to strikes.
“vessel strikes can result in injury or mortality to fish inhabiting navigational channels, with larger, adult individuals being more susceptible to strikes (Brown and Murphy 2010;Balazik et al. 2012;Hondorp et al. 2017;Demetras et al. 2020).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked- cites Brown and Murphy 2010 source
- cites Balazik et al. 2012 source
- cites Demetras et al. 2020 source
The paper states that vessel strikes pose a risk of injury and mortality to White Sturgeon in the Carquinez Strait, and discusses their potential overlap with vessels in shipping channels (main text; page unavailable). It does not establish that larger adults are more susceptible than smaller fish; it also describes sub-adult sturgeon as potentially vulnerable. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationDredging procedures result in direct removal of habitat for benthic fishes and can remove individual fish through entrainment.
“Dredging procedures result in the direct removal of habitat (i.e., sediment, structure) for benthic fishes (Fischer et al. 2012;Freedman et al. 2013;Soinski et al. 2022) but can also remove individual fish through entrainment (Eleftheriou and Robertson 1992;Drabble 2012;Barletta et al. 2016).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataReasonable estimates of juvenile abundance in 2021 or adult abundance in 2024 could not be calculated for Altamaha River because there were not enough recaptures.
“Furthermore, we could not calculate reasonable estimates of juvenile abundance in 2021 or adult abundance in 2024 for the Altamaha River because there were not enough recaptures.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationThe SHEP dredging was predicted to decrease estuarine habitat availability for the local population of shortnose sturgeon.
“the SHEP dredging was predicted to decrease estuarine habitat availability for the local population of shortnose sturgeon.”
- Also stated in: § Introduction · hedged
“The SHEP was anticipated to have similar adverse effects on the estuary, including increasing salinities and decreasing dissolved oxygen concentrations, which would likely result in additional habitat loss for both adult and juvenile shortnose sturgeon (USACE 2012).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites USACE 2012
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Also stated in: § Introduction · hedged
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationown dataThere may be other unknown mechanisms influencing survival of adult shortnose sturgeon at the regional level, since adult abundance in Altamaha River also declined over the same time frame.
“Since adult abundance in the Altamaha River also declined over the same time frame, there may be other unknown mechanisms influencing survival of adult contingents of shortnose sturgeon at the regional level.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningAdult abundance decline in Savannah River during and after SHEP could potentially be attributed to fewer juvenile fish surviving to maturity because of perturbations caused by the SHEP.
“However, adult abundance in the Savannah River declined during and after the SHEP; this could potentially be attributed to fewer juvenile fish surviving to maturity because of perturbations caused by the SHEP.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationHuggins models assume population closure, and prior studies have shown that shortnose sturgeon populations meet this assumption during summer months in southern rivers when movement of fish is limited.
“Huggins models assume population closure, and prior studies have shown that populations of shortnose sturgeon meet this assumption during summer months in southern rivers when movement of fish is limited (Hall et al. 1991;Peterson and Bednarski 2013;Bahr and Peterson 2017;Ingram and Peterson 2018).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checkedThe quote only partly states this claim.
Study design and conductown dataTwo years in the Savannah River during the 'after' time frame that included the SHEP's progression and completion lacked abundance estimates.
“This includes 2 years in the Savannah River during the “after” time frame that included the SHEP's progression and completion.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningFurther loss of nursery habitat could cause bottlenecks in recruitment and threaten the long-term persistence of the Savannah River shortnose sturgeon population.
“which could cause bottlenecks in recruitment and threaten the long-term persistence of the Savannah River shortnose sturgeon population.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
InterpretationreasoningThe results demonstrate the value of long-term monitoring among multiple river systems in evaluating changes to systems that could negatively affect fish communities.
“Our results demonstrate the value of long-term monitoring among multiple river systems in evaluating changes to systems that could negatively affect fish communities.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationMortality-related threats that shortnose sturgeon may be exposed to in the Savannah River can further impede recovery of southern populations of shortnose sturgeon.
“these mortality-related threats that fish may be exposed to in the Savannah River can further impede recovery of southern populations of shortnose sturgeon (SSSRT 2010).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites SSSRT 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationThe sampling methods have successfully captured shortnose sturgeon in Georgia rivers.
“These methods have successfully captured shortnose sturgeon in Georgia rivers (Peterson and Farrae 2011;Peterson and Bednarski 2013;Bahr and Peterson 2017;Ingram et al. 2020;Kleinhans and Fox 2024).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checkedClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationEstablishing multi-year abundance estimates of shortnose sturgeon in each riverine population is an essential research objective in the species recovery plan to identify how populations at the riverine level respond to stressors or potential recovery actions over time.
“Establishing multi-year abundance estimates of shortnose sturgeon in each riverine population is an essential research objective in the species recovery plan to identify how populations at the riverine level respond to stressors or potential recovery actions over time (NMFS 1998).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites NMFS 1998
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenThe long-term mark-recapture study used consistent methods and effort and relatively consistent sampling sites for well over a decade.
“That study has used consistent methods and effort and relatively consistent sampling sites for well over a decade.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe Savannah River is presumed to contain the second largest shortnose sturgeon population in the southern extent of the species' current range, with a 2013 estimate as large as 2432 individuals.
“The Savannah River is presumed to contain the second largest shortnose sturgeon population in the southern extent of the species' current range, with a 2013 estimate putting total population abundance as large as 2432 individuals (Bahr and Peterson 2017).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Bahr and Peterson 2017 source
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationThe adult abundances quantified in this study may include some non-natal individuals and exclude some natal individuals.
“we acknowledge that the adult abundances we quantified may include some non-natal individuals and exclude some natal individuals.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationSturgeon can potentially be entrained if individuals cannot exhibit the capacity to swim out of the dredging machinery's suction field.
“sturgeon can be potentially entrained if individuals cannot exhibit the capacity to swim out of the dredging”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductown dataJuvenile and adult abundance estimates were log-transformed to meet model assumptions of normality and homoscedasticity.
“Juvenile and adult abundance estimates were evaluated in separate linear models, and abundance estimates were log-transformed to meet model assumptions of normality and homoscedasticity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationBACI models use concurrent data from a reference that has not been subject to disruption as a comparison to data from a treatment that has experienced a disruption to assess how the treatment has potentially responded to the disruption over the same time.
“To evaluate the effects of the SHEP on the Savannah River population of shortnose sturgeon, we used BACI models, which use concurrent data from a reference (control) that has not been subject to disruption as a comparison to data from a treatment (impacted) that has experienced a disruption to assess how the treatment has potentially responded to the disruption over the same time (Underwood 1991;S”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenThe BACI model used point estimates of abundance as the response variable despite potentially large uncertainties (95% confidence intervals).
“in our BACI model approach, we used point estimates of abundance as the response variable, despite potentially large uncertainties (i.e., 95% confidence intervals).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningThe Altamaha River served as an appropriate control system because it is geographically proximate to the Savannah River and is anthropogenically unaltered relative to the Savannah River.
“We used the Altamaha River as a control in this study because of its geographic proximity to the Savannah River and because the Altamaha River is anthropogenically unaltered relative to the Savannah River.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The Altamaha River is anthropogenically unaltered relative to the Savannah River.
The authors state this as an assumption.
Both the Savannah River and Altamaha River experience similar natural conditions (weather, seasonal patterns, environmental perturbations) due to their geographic proximity.
“We use this estuary as a reference in our study because we expect that both systems experience similar natural conditions (i.e., weather, seasonal patterns, environmental perturbations) due to their geographic proximity.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The study area is closed to immigration and emigration during the sampling period.
“The Huggins closed population capture-recapture model that we used to quantify abundance relies on an assumption that the study area is closed to immigration and emigration during sampling.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The Altamaha River is anthropogenically unaltered relative to the Savannah River.
“the Altamaha River is anthropogenically unaltered relative to the Savannah River.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Juvenile BACI interaction conflicts with Table 6
MajorThe Results give the juvenile interaction as positive 1.58, whereas Table 6 reports −3.55. These are conflicting values for the conclusion-bearing interaction.
“juvenile abundance significantly declined in the Savannah River (interaction = 1.58, se = 0.77, p < 0.01)”
“| | Interaction (time × river) | -3.55 | 0.77 | < 0.01* |”
Savannah River mean net count does not match the total
MinorThe study covers 12 years, so 2,701 nets average about 225 per year, not 209.
Reported 209 · recomputed 225.083333
“Over the 12-year period of study, we set a total of 2701 nets (mean = 209 nets deployed/year) in the Savannah River”
Adult BACI interaction conflicts with Table 6
MinorThe Results give the adult interaction as 6.84, whereas Table 6 reports −0.59. The prose also describes the interaction as non-significant, making the conflicting estimate consequential to its interpretation.
“interaction = 6.84, se = 0.66, p = 0.38; Table 6”
“| | Interaction (time × river) | -0.59 | 0.66 | 0.38 |”
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Self-citationLongest documented coastal migrations of shortnose sturgeon
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Dredging on water bodies and margin interventions: effects on fish
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Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 6
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- Rider HR, Morgan MK, Bond AT, Nolan JD, Fox AG, Hamel MJ (2025) Validating age estimates from pectoral fin spines and length-frequency analysis of known-age Shortnose sturgeon. J Southeast Assoc Fish Wildl Agencies 12:52–60
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Nolan, J. M., Baker, M., Cummins, A. J., et al. (2026) · Aquatic Conservation Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems · doi:10.1002/aqc.70481
Self-citation
- Authors
- Rider, H. J., Morgan, K. M., Bond, A. T., Nolan, J. D., Fox, A. G., & Hamel, M. J.
- Affiliations
- University of Georgia (US)
- Corresponding author
- Hamel, Martin J.
- Venue
- Environmental Biology of Fishes
- Published
- 2026-08-28
- Volume
- 109
- Issue
- 3
- ISSN
- 0378-1909 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-5133
- OpenAlex
- W7204496850
- Cited by
- 1
- References
- 49
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1
- FWCI
- 4.15
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Environmental Biology of Fishes (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- National Marine Fisheries Service (NA22NMF4720099)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ichthyology and Marine Biology
- Keywords
- shortnose sturgeon, Acipenser brevirostrum, mark-recapture, Altamaha River, estuarine habitat loss, population recovery
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-27.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-27.
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Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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