Ensemble Deep Learning Algorithm for Structural Heart Disease Screening Using Electrocardiographic Images
Open accessAbstract
Background Identifying structural heart diseases (SHDs) early can change the course of the disease, but their diagnosis requires cardiac imaging, which is limited in accessibility. Objectives The purpose of this study was to leverage images of 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) for automated detection and prediction of multiple SHDs using an ensemble deep learning approach. Methods We developed a series of convolutional neural network models for detecting a range of individual SHDs from images of ECGs with SHDs defined by transthoracic echocardiograms performed within 30 days of the ECG at the Yale New Haven Hospital (YNHH). SHDs were defined as left ventricular ejection fraction <40%, moderate-to-severe left-sided valvular disease (aortic/mitral stenosis or regurgitation), or severe left ventricular hypertrophy (interventricular septal diameter at end-diastole >1.5 cm and diastolic dysfunction). We developed an ensemble XGBoost model, PRESENT-SHD (Practical scREening using ENsemble machine learning sTrategy for SHD detection), as a composite screen across all SHDs. We validated PRESENT-SHD at 4 U.S. hospitals and the prospective, population-based ELSA-Brasil (Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health) cohort, with concurrent protocolized ECGs and transthoracic echocardiograms. We also used PRESENT-SHD for risk stratification of new-onset SHD or heart failure (HF) in clinical cohorts and the population-based UK Biobank. Results The models were developed using 261,228 ECGs from 93,693 YNHH patients and evaluated on a single ECG from 11,023 individuals at YNHH (19% with SHD), 44,591 across external hospitals (20%-27% with SHD), and 3,014 in the ELSA-Brasil (3% with SHD). In the held-out test set, PRESENT-SHD demonstrated an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.886 (95% CI: 0.877-894), 90% sensitivity, and 66% specificity. At hospital-based sites, PRESENT-SHD had AUROCs ranging from 0.854 to 0.900, with sensitivities and specificities of 93% to 96% and 51% to 56%, respectively. The model generalized well to ELSA-Brasil (AUROC 0.853 [95% CI: 0.811-0.897], 88% sensitivity, 62% specificity). PRESENT-SHD demonstrated consistent performance across demographic subgroups, novel ECG formats, and smartphone photographs of ECGs from monitors and printouts. A positive PRESENT-SHD screen portended a 2- to 4-fold higher risk of new-onset SHD/heart failure, independent of demographics, comorbidities, and the competing risk of death across clinical sites and UK Biobank, with high predictive discrimination. Conclusions We developed and validated PRESENT-SHD, an AI-ECG tool identifying a range of SHD using images of 12-lead ECGs, representing a robust, scalable, and accessible modality for automated SHD screening and risk stratification.
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
PRESENT-SHD is an ensemble deep learning model that uses images of 12-lead ECGs to detect a composite of structural heart diseases and stratify risk of new-onset SHD/HF. It showed strong discrimination across US hospitals, a Brazilian population-based cohort, and UK Biobank, including on screenshots and smartphone photographs of ECGs.
Key findings
- In the YNHH held-out test set, PRESENT-SHD detected composite SHD with AUROC 0.886 (95% CI, 0.877-0.894), AUPRC 0.807 (95% CI, 0.791-0.823), sensitivity 89.8%, specificity 66.2%, PPV 57.4%, and NPV 92.8%.
- External hospital AUROCs ranged from 0.854 to 0.900, with sensitivities and specificities of 88-96% and 51-66%; in ELSA-Brasil, AUROC was 0.853 (95% CI, 0.811-0.897), sensitivity 87.5%, and specificity 61.9%.
- Performance was consistent on ECG screenshots and smartphone photographs: AUROCs were 0.939 for plotted images, 0.934 for screenshots, 0.932 for photographs of computer monitors, and 0.924 for photographs of printouts, with Pearson correlations 0.959-0.977.
- A positive PRESENT-SHD screen was associated with higher risk of new-onset SHD/HF in YNHH (age- and sex-adjusted HR 4.28, 95% CI 3.95-4.64; Harrell’s C-statistic 0.823) and UK Biobank (aHR 2.39, 95% CI 1.87-3.04; C-statistic 0.754); each 10% increment in model probability was associated with a 36% higher hazard in YNHH (aHR 1.36, 95% CI 1.35-1.38).
Methods
- The authors trained 6 independent CNN models based on EfficientNet-B3 to detect individual SHD components from ECG images, using 261,228 ECGs from 93,693 YNHH patients; these outputs plus age and sex were combined in an XGBoost ensemble, PRESENT-SHD.
- SHD was defined by transthoracic echocardiogram within 30 days of ECG as LVEF <40%, moderate-to-severe left-sided valvular disease, or severe LV hypertrophy (IVSd >1.5 cm plus moderate-to-severe diastolic dysfunction). Validation included 11,023 individuals at YNHH, 44,591 across 4 external US hospitals, 3,014 in ELSA-Brasil, and UK Biobank for incident prediction.
- Performance was assessed with AUROC, AUPRC, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and F1 score with 95% CIs; new-onset SHD/HF was evaluated using age- and sex-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models and Fine-Gray competing-risk models, with Harrell’s C-statistic.
Limitations
- The paper states that the development population was selected patients with a clinical indication for ECG and TTE, so continued prospective validation is needed before broad screening use; real-world feasibility and performance of screenshots and smartphone-captured ECG photographs also require prospective evaluation.
- The paper states that model performance was lower in individuals aged 65 and older, potentially limiting reliability as a standalone tool to rule out the need for cardiac imaging, and that cost-effectiveness was not evaluated.
- The paper notes possible incomplete capture of longitudinal outcomes outside YNHH and community hospitals; evident from the text, the study is retrospective and does not test whether screening with PRESENT-SHD improves clinical outcomes.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
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Claims the paper makes
24 of 44 cited sources checked · 14 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
A key challenge of AI-ECG models in detecting specific cardiac disorders using ECGs is low precision driven by the low prevalence of individual disorders.
“A key challenge of AI-ECG models in detecting specific cardiac disorders using ECGs is the low precision driven by the low prevalence of individual disorders.10-12”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked- cites [10] Attia, 2019, Screening for cardiac contractile dysfunction using an artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiogram, Nat Med source
- cites [11] Sangha, 2023, Detection of Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction From Electrocardiographic Images, Circulation source
The Results (page unavailable) report a positive predictive value of 0.26 for the AI-ECG model detecting left ventricular systolic dysfunction. The Discussion (page unavailable) notes lower disorder prevalence in a healthier validation cohort, but does not say that low prevalence drove low precision or establish this as a general challenge across individual cardiac disorders. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [12] Cohen-Shelly, 2021, Electrocardiogram screening for aortic valve stenosis using artificial intelligence, Eur Heart J source
- Interpretationcitation
The use of ECG images as input and a flexible strategy that allows for varying formats supports the scalability of the approach across resource settings.
“Moreover, the use of ECG images as the input, and a flexible strategy that allows for varying formats, supports the scalability of the approach across resources settings.38”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [38] Oikonomou, 2024, Tracking the pre-clinical progression of transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy using artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiography and echocardiography, bioRxiv source
- Premisecitation
The low prevalence of individual structural heart diseases limits the potential implementation of models for broad screening because of the low PPVs of the proposed models.
“While these models provide a strong foundation for the role of ECG-based detection of SHDs, the low prevalence of these individual diseases, their potential implementation for broad screening is limited by the low PPVs of the proposed models.10-12,16,32-34”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim4 of 7 sources checked- cites [10] Attia, 2019, Screening for cardiac contractile dysfunction using an artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiogram, Nat Med source
- cites [11] Sangha, 2023, Detection of Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction From Electrocardiographic Images, Circulation source
The Results (Detection of LV Systolic Dysfunction; page unavailable) report a PPV of 0.26. The Discussion (page unavailable) notes lower disease prevalence in a healthier validation cohort and says screening thresholds may need recalibration. The paper does not conclude that low prevalence and PPV limit broad screening implementation; it calls for prospective assessment in that setting. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [12] Cohen-Shelly, 2021, Electrocardiogram screening for aortic valve stenosis using artificial intelligence, Eur Heart J source
- cites [16] Sangha, 2023, Identification of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy on electrocardiographic images with deep learning, medRxiv source
The Discussion says community-based screening with this HCM model can produce high false-positive rates and that low prevalence limits screening yield. The Results report only 29 HCM cases among 45,389 UK Biobank ECGs. This supports the concern for HCM, but the paper does not establish low PPVs or screening limitations across multiple structural heart diseases and their proposed models. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [32] Ko, 2020, Detection of Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Using a Convolutional Neural Network-Enabled Electrocardiogram, J Am Coll Cardiol source
- cites [33] Goto, 2022, Multinational federated learning approach to train ECG and echocardiogram models for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy detection, Circulation source
The Methods describe an HCM surveillance cohort with 0.5% prevalence, and the Results report a 1% PPV for the ECG model at a high-sensitivity cutoff. The Discussion says PPV affects which follow-up actions are appropriate, but it does not conclude that low PPV precludes broad screening; it proposes systematic ECG screening followed by echocardiography. The paper addresses HCM, not structural heart diseases generally. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [34] Grogan, 2021, Artificial intelligence–enhanced electrocardiogram for the early detection of cardiac amyloidosis, Mayo Clin Proc source
- Findingown data
Of 127,547 individuals at risk in YNHH, 5,346 (4.2%) had new-onset SHD/HF over a median of 4.0 years of follow-up.
“Of the 127,547 individuals at risk in YNHH, 5,346 (4.2%) had new-onset SHD/HF over a median of 4.0 (IQR 1.7-6.4) years of follow-up.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
PRESENT-SHD generalized to the external validation cohort at Lawrence + Memorial with an AUROC of 0.871 (95% CI, 0.864-0.878).
“Further, PRESENT-SHD generalized well to the external validation cohorts at Bridgeport (AUROC, 0.854 [95% CI, 0.847-0.862]), Greenwich (AUROC, 0.900 [95% CI, 0.888-0.913]), Lawrence + Memorial (AUROC, 0.871 [95% CI, 0.864-0.878]), and Westerly (AUROC, 0.887 [95% CI, 0.874-0.902]) Hospitals, with sensitivities and specificities ranging 88-96% and 51-66%, respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data
The model for LVSD had an AUROC of 0.914 (95% CI, 0.904-0.924).
“The models for LVSD, moderate or severe valvular disease, and sLVH had AUROCs of 0.914 (95% CI, 0.904-0.924), 0.805 (95% CI, 0.793-0.817), and 0.903 (95% CI, 0.850-0.946; Figure 2), respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
A positive PRESENT-SHD screen portended a 4-fold higher risk of new-onset SHD/HF in YNHH (age- and sex-adjusted HR, 4.28; 95% CI, 3.95-4.64; Harrell's C-statistic, 0.823).
“A positive PRESENT-SHD screen portended a 4-fold higher risk of new-onset SHD/HF in YNHH (age- and sex-adjusted HR [aHR], 4.28 [95% CI, 3.95-4.64], Harrell’s C-statistic, 0.823 [95% CI, 0.817-0.828]) and every 10% increment in model probability was progressively associated with a 36% higher hazard for incident SHD/HF (aHR, 1.36 [1.35-1.38]).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Across the external validation hospitals, sensitivities and specificities ranged 88-96% and 51-66%, respectively.
“Further, PRESENT-SHD generalized well to the external validation cohorts at Bridgeport (AUROC, 0.854 [95% CI, 0.847-0.862]), Greenwich (AUROC, 0.900 [95% CI, 0.888-0.913]), Lawrence + Memorial (AUROC, 0.871 [95% CI, 0.864-0.878]), and Westerly (AUROC, 0.887 [95% CI, 0.874-0.902]) Hospitals, with sensitivities and specificities ranging 88-96% and 51-66%, respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Across validation sites, PRESENT-SHD performance was consistent across demographic subgroups.
“Across validation sites, model performance was consistent across demographic subgroups (Supplementary Tables 12-16).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
At the probability threshold for sensitivity above 90% in the internal validation set, PRESENT-SHD had a PPV of 57.4% (95% CI, 56.1-58.6) for detecting SHD in the held-out test set in YNHH.
“At the probability threshold for sensitivity above 90% in the internal validation set, the model had a sensitivity of 89.8% (95% CI, 89.0-90.5), specificity of 66.2% (95% CI, 65.0-67.4), PPV of 57.4% (95% CI, 56.1-58.6), and NPV of 92.8% (95% CI, 92.1-93.4) for detecting SHD in the held-out test set in YNHH (Table 2; Supplementary Figure 7).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Across ECG screenshots and smartphone photographs of monitors and printouts, PRESENT-SHD demonstrated high agreement with plotted images (Pearson correlation coefficients, 0.959-0.977).
“Across ECG screenshots and smartphone photographs of monitors and printouts, the model demonstrated high agreement with plotted images (Pearson correlation coefficients, 0.959-0.977; Supplementary Figure 9) and consistent performance across all image types (AUROCs: Plotted images, 0.939 [95% CI, 0.887-0.976]; ECG screenshots, 0.934 [95% CI, 0.885-0.973]; Smartphone photographs of computer monitors”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The CNN model for AS had an AUROC of 0.804 (95% CI, 0.784-0.824).
“The performance of CNN models for individual valvular heart diseases varied, with an AUROC of 0.722 (95% CI, 0.784-0.824) for moderate or severe AR, 0.804 (95% CI, 0.784-0.824) for AS, and 0.792 (95% CI, 0.776-0.807) for MR.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Of 15,105 participants in ELSA-Brasil, 3,014 who underwent ECG and transthoracic echocardiogram during their baseline visit were included.
“Of the 15,105 participants in ELSA-Brasil, 3,014 who underwent ECG and TTE during their baseline visit were included.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
PRESENT-SHD had high discrimination for detecting the severe SHD phenotype (LVSD, severe left-sided valve disease, or sLVH).
“Moreover, the model had consistent performance across subsets where TTEs were performed before, on the same day as, or after the ECG (Supplementary Table 6) and had high discrimination for detecting the severe SHD phenotype (LVSD, severe left-sided valve disease, or sLVH; Supplementary Figure 8).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Every 10% increment in PRESENT-SHD model probability was associated with a 36% higher hazard for incident SHD/HF (aHR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.35-1.38).
“A positive PRESENT-SHD screen portended a 4-fold higher risk of new-onset SHD/HF in YNHH (age- and sex-adjusted HR [aHR], 4.28 [95% CI, 3.95-4.64], Harrell’s C-statistic, 0.823 [95% CI, 0.817-0.828]) and every 10% increment in model probability was progressively associated with a 36% higher hazard for incident SHD/HF (aHR, 1.36 [1.35-1.38]).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In UKB, 413 (1.0%) of 41,800 individuals developed SHD/HF over 3.0 years of follow-up.
“In UKB, 413 (1.0%) of 41,800 individuals developed SHD/HF over 3.0 (IQR 2.1-4.5) years of follow-up.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
At the probability threshold for sensitivity above 90% in the internal validation set, PRESENT-SHD had an NPV of 92.8% (95% CI, 92.1-93.4) for detecting SHD in the held-out test set in YNHH.
“At the probability threshold for sensitivity above 90% in the internal validation set, the model had a sensitivity of 89.8% (95% CI, 89.0-90.5), specificity of 66.2% (95% CI, 65.0-67.4), PPV of 57.4% (95% CI, 56.1-58.6), and NPV of 92.8% (95% CI, 92.1-93.4) for detecting SHD in the held-out test set in YNHH (Table 2; Supplementary Figure 7).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The model for sLVH had an AUROC of 0.903 (95% CI, 0.850-0.946).
“The models for LVSD, moderate or severe valvular disease, and sLVH had AUROCs of 0.914 (95% CI, 0.904-0.924), 0.805 (95% CI, 0.793-0.817), and 0.903 (95% CI, 0.850-0.946; Figure 2), respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Across all sites, higher PRESENT-SHD model probabilities were associated with progressively higher risk of new-onset SHD/HF.
“Across all sites, higher model probabilities were associated with progressively higher risk of new-onset SHD/HF (Supplementary Table 28; Figure 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
PRESENT-SHD had consistent performance across subsets where TTEs were performed before, on the same day as, or after the ECG.
“Moreover, the model had consistent performance across subsets where TTEs were performed before, on the same day as, or after the ECG (Supplementary Table 6) and had high discrimination for detecting the severe SHD phenotype (LVSD, severe left-sided valve disease, or sLVH; Supplementary Figure 8).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The model for moderate or severe valvular disease had an AUROC of 0.805 (95% CI, 0.793-0.817).
“The models for LVSD, moderate or severe valvular disease, and sLVH had AUROCs of 0.914 (95% CI, 0.904-0.924), 0.805 (95% CI, 0.793-0.817), and 0.903 (95% CI, 0.850-0.946; Figure 2), respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The CNN model AUPRCs varied with individual disease prevalence.
“The CNN model AUPRCs varied with individual disease prevalence (Supplementary Tables 18-23).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
PRESENT-SHD achieved an AUROC of 0.886 (95% CI, 0.877-0.894) for detecting the composite SHD outcome in the held-out test set.
“The ensemble XGBoost model, PRESENT-SHD, demonstrated an AUROC of 0.886 (95% CI, 0.877-0.894) and an AUPRC of 0.807 (95% CI, 0.791-0.823) for the detection of the composite SHD outcome in the held-out test set (Table 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
PRESENT-SHD generalized to the external validation cohort at Bridgeport with an AUROC of 0.854 (95% CI, 0.847-0.862).
“Further, PRESENT-SHD generalized well to the external validation cohorts at Bridgeport (AUROC, 0.854 [95% CI, 0.847-0.862]), Greenwich (AUROC, 0.900 [95% CI, 0.888-0.913]), Lawrence + Memorial (AUROC, 0.871 [95% CI, 0.864-0.878]), and Westerly (AUROC, 0.887 [95% CI, 0.874-0.902]) Hospitals, with sensitivities and specificities ranging 88-96% and 51-66%, respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
At the probability threshold for sensitivity above 90% in the internal validation set, PRESENT-SHD had a specificity of 66.2% (95% CI, 65.0-67.4) for detecting SHD in the held-out test set in YNHH.
“At the probability threshold for sensitivity above 90% in the internal validation set, the model had a sensitivity of 89.8% (95% CI, 89.0-90.5), specificity of 66.2% (95% CI, 65.0-67.4), PPV of 57.4% (95% CI, 56.1-58.6), and NPV of 92.8% (95% CI, 92.1-93.4) for detecting SHD in the held-out test set in YNHH (Table 2; Supplementary Figure 7).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
PRESENT-SHD achieved an AUPRC of 0.807 (95% CI, 0.791-0.823) for detecting the composite SHD outcome in the held-out test set.
“The ensemble XGBoost model, PRESENT-SHD, demonstrated an AUROC of 0.886 (95% CI, 0.877-0.894) and an AUPRC of 0.807 (95% CI, 0.791-0.823) for the detection of the composite SHD outcome in the held-out test set (Table 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
PRESENT-SHD generalized to the population-based ELSA-Brasil cohort with an AUROC of 0.853 (95% CI, 0.811-0.897).
“PRESENT-SHD also generalized well to the population-based ELSA-Brasil, with an AUROC of 0.853 (95% CI: 0.811-0.897) and a sensitivity and specificity of 87.5% and 61.9%, respectively (Table 2; Supplementary Table 11).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
PRESENT-SHD performance was higher than the CNN models trained to directly detect SHD and other XGBoost ensemble strategies.
“Notably, the performance of PRESENT-SHD was higher than the CNN models trained to directly detect SHD and other XGBoost ensemble strategies (Supplementary Tables 7 and 8).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
PRESENT-SHD generalized to the external validation cohort at Westerly with an AUROC of 0.887 (95% CI, 0.874-0.902).
“Further, PRESENT-SHD generalized well to the external validation cohorts at Bridgeport (AUROC, 0.854 [95% CI, 0.847-0.862]), Greenwich (AUROC, 0.900 [95% CI, 0.888-0.913]), Lawrence + Memorial (AUROC, 0.871 [95% CI, 0.864-0.878]), and Westerly (AUROC, 0.887 [95% CI, 0.874-0.902]) Hospitals, with sensitivities and specificities ranging 88-96% and 51-66%, respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
PRESENT-SHD performed consistently across subgroups of age, sex, race, and ethnicity.
“PRESENT-SHD performed consistently across subgroups of age, sex, race, and ethnicity (Table 1), and generalized well to novel ECG formats not encountered during training (Supplementary Table 5).”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
“Model performance was consistent across demographic subgroups and similar to the corresponding signal-based models.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
- Findingown data
PRESENT-SHD had an AUROC of 0.853 (0.811-0.897), 88% sensitivity, and 62% specificity in ELSA-Brasil.
“The model generalized well to ELSA-Brasil (AUROC, 0.853 [0.811-0.897], 88% sensitivity, 62% specificity).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
PRESENT-SHD performance was similar to the corresponding signal-based model for detecting SHD.
“PRESENT-SHD performance was similar to the corresponding signal-based model for detecting SHD (Supplementary Table 9).”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
“Model performance was consistent across demographic subgroups and similar to the corresponding signal-based models.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
- Findingown data
The performance for individual disease CNNs was consistent across external validation cohorts and real-world ECG image modalities.
“The performance for individual disease CNNs was consistent across external validation cohorts (Supplementary Figure 10; Supplementary Tables 18-23) and real-world ECG image modalities (Supplementary Table 24).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
At the probability threshold for sensitivity above 90% in the internal validation set, PRESENT-SHD had a sensitivity of 89.8% (95% CI, 89.0-90.5) for detecting SHD in the held-out test set in YNHH.
“At the probability threshold for sensitivity above 90% in the internal validation set, the model had a sensitivity of 89.8% (95% CI, 89.0-90.5), specificity of 66.2% (95% CI, 65.0-67.4), PPV of 57.4% (95% CI, 56.1-58.6), and NPV of 92.8% (95% CI, 92.1-93.4) for detecting SHD in the held-out test set in YNHH (Table 2; Supplementary Figure 7).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The association between PRESENT-SHD and incident SHD/HF remained consistent after adjusting for comorbidities at baseline and the competing risk of death.
“This association remained consistent after adjusting for comorbidities at baseline and the competing risk of death (Supplementary Table 26).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
PRESENT-SHD generalized to the external validation cohort at Greenwich with an AUROC of 0.900 (95% CI, 0.888-0.913).
“Further, PRESENT-SHD generalized well to the external validation cohorts at Bridgeport (AUROC, 0.854 [95% CI, 0.847-0.862]), Greenwich (AUROC, 0.900 [95% CI, 0.888-0.913]), Lawrence + Memorial (AUROC, 0.871 [95% CI, 0.864-0.878]), and Westerly (AUROC, 0.887 [95% CI, 0.874-0.902]) Hospitals, with sensitivities and specificities ranging 88-96% and 51-66%, respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
A similar pattern of association between PRESENT-SHD and incident SHD/HF was observed across all external validation hospital sites.
“A similar pattern was observed across all external validation hospital sites (Supplementary Tables 26 and 27).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In UKB, a positive versus negative PRESENT-SHD screen was associated with twice the hazard of developing SHD/HF (aHR, 2.39; 95% CI, 1.87-3.04; Harrell's C-statistic, 0.754).
“In the UKB, a positive vs. negative PRESENT-SHD screen was associated with twice the hazard of developing SHD/HF (aHR, 2.39 [95% CI, 1.87-3.04], Harrell’s C-statistic, 0.754 [95% CI, 0.728-0.780]).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
PRESENT-SHD generalized well to novel ECG formats not encountered during training.
“PRESENT-SHD performed consistently across subgroups of age, sex, race, and ethnicity (Table 1), and generalized well to novel ECG formats not encountered during training (Supplementary Table 5).”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
“Additionally, PRESENT-SHD maintained high performance when tested on novel ECG formats, screenshots of ECGs in the EHR, as well as smartphone photographs of ECGs captured from laptop monitors and printouts.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
- Findingown data
PRESENT-SHD model performance was lower in individuals aged 65 and older.
“Fifth, model performance was lower in individuals aged 65 and older, potentially limiting reliability as a standalone tool to rule out the need for cardiac imaging.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The CNN model for MR had an AUROC of 0.792 (95% CI, 0.776-0.807).
“The performance of CNN models for individual valvular heart diseases varied, with an AUROC of 0.722 (95% CI, 0.784-0.824) for moderate or severe AR, 0.804 (95% CI, 0.784-0.824) for AS, and 0.792 (95% CI, 0.776-0.807) for MR.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The CNN model for moderate or severe AR had an AUROC of 0.722 (95% CI, 0.784-0.824).
“The performance of CNN models for individual valvular heart diseases varied, with an AUROC of 0.722 (95% CI, 0.784-0.824) for moderate or severe AR, 0.804 (95% CI, 0.784-0.824) for AS, and 0.792 (95% CI, 0.776-0.807) for MR.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductcitation
All structural heart disease conditions were ascertained based on interpretation of transthoracic echocardiograms by board-certified cardiologists according to American Society of Echocardiography guidelines.
“All conditions were ascertained based on the interpretation of TTE by board-certified cardiologists according to the American Society of Echocardiography guidelines.20”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [20]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationreasoning
Any processing of ECG images is not required for the real-world application of PRESENT-SHD.
“Thus, any processing of ECG images is not required for the real-world application of PRESENT-SHD, as also demonstrated in the publicly accessible application of the model.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Signal preprocessing before image plotting represents standard steps used in ECG machines before ECG images are generated or printed.
- Interpretationreasoning
By focusing on detecting any clinically relevant SHDs that require TTE for confirmation, PRESENT-SHD enables efficient screening by limiting false discovery.
“Through a focus on detecting any of the clinically relevant SHDs that require TTE for confirmation, PRESENT-SHD enables efficient screening by limiting false discovery.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductnone given
None of the ECGs on the self-supervised pretraining task represented individuals in the structural heart disease model development.
“None of the ECGs on the self-supervised pretraining task represented individuals in the SHD model development.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
A focus on developing PRESENT-SHD in diverse populations enabled its consistent performance in demographic subgroups across validation sites.
“A focus on developing PRESENT-SHD in diverse populations enabled its consistent performance in demographic subgroups across validation sites.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
PRESENT-SHD is an ensemble deep learning model that uses an ECG image as the input to detect a range of SHDs.
“We developed and validated PRESENT-SHD, an ensemble deep learning model that uses an ECG image as the input to detect a range of SHDs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The use of raw ECG voltage data precludes widespread use of AI-ECG approaches for broad cardiovascular screening because data integrations are not commonly available.
“This precludes the widespread use of AI-ECG approaches for broad cardiovascular screening, as these data integrations are not commonly available.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
PRESENT-SHD is an AI-ECG tool that identifies a range of structural heart diseases using images of 12-lead ECGs.
“We developed and validated PRESENT-SHD, an AI-ECG tool identifying a range of SHD using images of 12-lead ECGs, representing a robust, scalable, and accessible modality for automated SHD screening and risk stratification.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Given that the individual components of SHD share a common diagnostic test, TTE, screening with PRESENT-SHD can help triage the use of TTE testing.
“Given that the individual components of SHD share a common diagnostic test, a TTE, screening with PRESENT-SHD can help triage the use of TTE testing.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductnone given
None of the patients in the external validation sets were in the model development population.
“Of note, none of the patients in the external validation sets were in the model development population.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The focus on a composite model that detects a broad range of SHDs simultaneously reduces the burden of false positive screens and downstream testing, which is a major concern for AI-ECG models developed for individual cardiovascular conditions.
“The focus on a composite model that detects a broad range of SHDs simultaneously reduces the burden of false positive screens and downstream testing, which is a major concern for AI-ECG models developed for individual cardiovascular conditions.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation
An AI-ECG-based approach that leverages ECG images and photographs can enable opportunistic screening through automated deployment across clinical settings where ECGs are obtained.
“Since early disease detection and intervention can alter the trajectory and outcomes of patients with SHDs, an AI-ECG-based approach that leverages ECG images and photographs can enable opportunistic screening through automated deployment across clinical settings where ECGs are obtained.42,43”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [42] Levin, 1996, Prevalent left ventricular hypertrophy in the predialysis population: identifying opportunities for intervention, Am J Kidney Dis source
- cites [43] Topol, 2024, for medical scans
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationown data
In individuals without SHD at baseline, PRESENT-SHD identified those with an up to 4-fold higher risk of developing new-onset SHD/HF across both US health system-centered cohorts and a UK community-based cohort.
“Further, in individuals without SHD at baseline, PRESENT-SHD identified those with an up to 4-fold higher risk of developing new-onset SHD/HF, across both health system-centered cohorts in the US and in a community-based cohort in the UK.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
PRESENT-SHD was well calibrated to the risk of new-onset disease, such that higher PRESENT-SHD probabilities were associated with progressively higher risk of developing SHD/HF.
“The model was well calibrated to the risk of new-onset disease, such that higher PRESENT-SHD probabilities were associated with progressively higher risk of developing SHD/HF.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
PRESENT-SHD generalized well to ELSA-Brasil.
“The model generalized well to ELSA-Brasil (AUROC, 0.853 [0.811-0.897], 88% sensitivity, 62% specificity).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Lower PRESENT-SHD performance in individuals aged 65 and older potentially limits its reliability as a standalone tool to rule out the need for cardiac imaging.
“Fifth, model performance was lower in individuals aged 65 and older, potentially limiting reliability as a standalone tool to rule out the need for cardiac imaging.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductnone given
The development population represented a selected set of patients with a clinical indication for an ECG and a TTE.
“First, the development population represented a selected set of patients with a clinical indication for an ECG and a TTE.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The consistent validation of PRESENT-SHD across populations with a broad range of clinical subpopulations seen in community and referral hospitals suggests that the model learned generalizable signatures of the SHDs.
“The consistent validation of the model across populations with a broad range of clinical subpopulations seen in community as well as referral hospitals suggests that the model learned generalizable signatures of the SHDs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 9
- May combine two claims. 29
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationPreviously, applications of artificial intelligence for electrocardiograms have shown potential to detect signatures of structural heart diseases.
“Previously applications of artificial intelligence for electrocardiograms (AI-ECG) have shown potential to detect signatures of SHDs.10-18”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim6 of 9 sources checked- cites [10] Attia, 2019, Screening for cardiac contractile dysfunction using an artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiogram, Nat Med source
- cites [11] Sangha, 2023, Detection of Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction From Electrocardiographic Images, Circulation source
- cites [12] Cohen-Shelly, 2021, Electrocardiogram screening for aortic valve stenosis using artificial intelligence, Eur Heart J source
- cites [13] Bjerkén, 2023, Artificial intelligence enabled ECG screening for left ventricular systolic dysfunction: a systematic review, Heart Fail Rev source
- cites [14] Khunte, 2023, Detection of left ventricular systolic dysfunction from single-lead electrocardiography adapted for portable and wearable devices, NPJ Digit Med source
- cites [15] Oikonomou, 2025, Artificial intelligence-enhanced risk stratification of cancer therapeutics-related cardiac dysfunction using electrocardiographic images, Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes source
- cites [16] Sangha, 2023, Identification of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy on electrocardiographic images with deep learning, medRxiv source
- cites [17] Dhingra, 2024, A multicenter evaluation of the impact of procedural and pharmacological interventions on deep learning-based electrocardiographic markers of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, bioRxiv source
- cites [18] Dhingra, 2024, Using artificial intelligence to predict heart failure risk from single-lead electrocardiographic signals: a multinational assessment, bioRxiv source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationStructural heart diseases are often diagnosed after the development of clinical symptoms, leading to poor health outcomes.
“Consequently, these conditions are often diagnosed after the development of clinical symptoms, leading to poor health outcomes.4-6”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked- cites [4] Alkhouli, 2019, Racial disparities in the utilization and outcomes of structural heart disease interventions in the United States, J Am Heart Assoc source
The Introduction and Discussion address racial disparities in access to structural heart disease interventions, while the Conclusions address short-term outcomes after those procedures. Our copy does not say that these conditions are often diagnosed after symptoms develop or that such diagnostic timing leads to poor outcomes (searched for diagnosis after symptoms and late diagnosis with poor outcomes). (LLM, conf=0.75)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [5] Samad, 2017, Prevalence and outcomes of left-sided valvular heart disease associated with Chronic kidney disease, J Am Heart Assoc source
The Conclusions report that left-sided valve disease is associated with higher mortality among patients with CKD, supporting the poor-outcomes portion for that population. Neither the Conclusions nor the Discussion’s Clinical Implications section says these conditions are often diagnosed only after symptoms develop, or that delayed diagnosis causes the poor outcomes. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [6] Fleury, 2021, Sex and race differences in the pathophysiology, diagnosis, treatment, and outcomes of valvular heart diseases, Can J Cardiol source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationDetection of structural heart diseases has traditionally required advanced cardiac imaging, including echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, which are resource-intensive and not suitable for large-scale disease screening.
“The detection of these disorders has traditionally required advanced cardiac imaging, including echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, which are resource-intensive and, therefore, not suitable for large-scale disease screening.2,3”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites [2] Picano, 2005, Economic and biological costs of cardiac imaging, Cardiovasc Ultrasound source
The section “The cost of cardiac imaging” reports costs for echocardiography and cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging, supporting the claim that these tests use substantial resources. It does not say that detecting structural heart disease traditionally required them or that they are unsuitable for large-scale screening; it also notes a cost-effective example of ultrasound screening for a different condition. No page numbers are available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [3] Vitola, 2009, Assessing the need for nuclear cardiology and other advanced cardiac imaging modalities in the developing world, J Nucl Cardiol source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThese ensemble models use raw ECG voltage data as inputs, which are inaccessible to clinicians at the point of care and often require modifications to the technical infrastructure to account for vendor-specific data formats.
“Nonetheless, these models use raw ECG voltage data as inputs, which are inaccessible to clinicians at the point of care and often require modifications to the technical infrastructure to account for vendor-specific data formats.19”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [19] Ulloa-Cerna, 2022, rECHOmmend: An ECG-Based Machine Learning Approach for Identifying Patients at Increased Risk of Undiagnosed Structural Heart Disease Detectable by Echocardiography, Circulation source
Methods (Model Development; page not provided) says the CNN models use raw ECG trace data as input, supporting that part of the claim. The paper does not say those data are inaccessible to clinicians at the point of care or that vendor-specific formats often require infrastructure changes. Instead, the Discussion says the featured model uses data readily available from ECG systems and could be easily deployed across most health care systems. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationPrior studies have reported the use of deep learning on 12-lead ECGs to detect individual structural cardiovascular conditions, including LVSD, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, cardiac amyloidosis, and aortic stenosis.
“Prior studies have reported the use of deep learning on 12-lead ECGs to detect individual structural cardiovascular conditions, including LVSD,10,11,13 hypertrophic cardiomyopathy,16,32,33 cardiac amyloidosis,34,35 aortic stenosis,12 among others.15,35-37”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim6 of 8 sources checked- cites [10] Attia, 2019, Screening for cardiac contractile dysfunction using an artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiogram, Nat Med source
- cites [11] Sangha, 2023, Detection of Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction From Electrocardiographic Images, Circulation source
- cites [13] Bjerkén, 2023, Artificial intelligence enabled ECG screening for left ventricular systolic dysfunction: a systematic review, Heart Fail Rev source
- cites [16] Sangha, 2023, Identification of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy on electrocardiographic images with deep learning, medRxiv source
- cites [32] Ko, 2020, Detection of Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Using a Convolutional Neural Network-Enabled Electrocardiogram, J Am Coll Cardiol source
- cites [33] Goto, 2022, Multinational federated learning approach to train ECG and echocardiogram models for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy detection, Circulation source
- cites [34] Grogan, 2021, Artificial intelligence–enhanced electrocardiogram for the early detection of cardiac amyloidosis, Mayo Clin Proc source
- cites [35] Taborsky, 2022, Detection of arrhythmias in patients with cardiac amyloidosis using implantable ECG recorders, Eur Heart J source
The Methods and Conclusions (page not specified) describe implantable ECG loop recorders used to detect arrhythmias in patients already diagnosed with cardiac amyloidosis. Searches for deep learning, neural networks, and 12-lead ECG diagnosis found no passage about using them to detect cardiac amyloidosis. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationEnsemble models for detecting a composite of multiple structural heart diseases have been proposed to overcome low precision.
“To overcome this limitation, ensemble models for detecting a composite of multiple SHDs have been proposed.19”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [19] Ulloa-Cerna, 2022, rECHOmmend: An ECG-Based Machine Learning Approach for Identifying Patients at Increased Risk of Undiagnosed Structural Heart Disease Detectable by Echocardiography, Circulation source
The Clinical Implications section says the authors combined seven structural heart disease outcomes into a composite prediction to increase diagnostic yield, and the Results report higher positive predictive value than the individual-disease models. But the Methods describe a model trained to predict the composite label, not an ensemble of models; that characterization is unsupported by our copy. No page numbers are available in the indexed passages. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe simultaneous detection of multiple SHDs increases the composite disease prevalence and improves model precision.
“The simultaneous detection of multiple SHDs increases the composite disease prevalence and improves model precision.19”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [19] Ulloa-Cerna, 2022, rECHOmmend: An ECG-Based Machine Learning Approach for Identifying Patients at Increased Risk of Undiagnosed Structural Heart Disease Detectable by Echocardiography, Circulation source
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn ELSA-Brasil, 88 (2.9%) individuals had structural heart disease, with 37 (1.2%) having LVSD, 55 (1.8%) moderate or severe left-sided valvular disease, and 6 (0.2%) sLVH.
“A total of 88 (2.9%) individuals had SHD, with 37 (1.2%) with LVSD, 55 (1.8%) with moderate or severe left-sided valvular disease, and 6 (0.2%) with sLVH (Supplementary Table 4).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe models were developed using 261,228 ECGs from 93,693 Yale New Haven Hospital patients and evaluated on a single ECG from 11,023 individuals at Yale New Haven Hospital (19% with structural heart disease), 44,591 across external hospitals (20-27% with structural heart disease), and 3,014 in ELSA-Brasil (3% with structural heart disease).
“The models were developed using 261,228 ECGs from 93,693 YNHH patients and evaluated on a single ECG from 11,023 individuals at YNHH (19% with SHD), 44,591 across external hospitals (20-27% with SHD), and 3,014 in the ELSA-Brasil (3% with SHD).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAt external hospital sites, 18,222 patients at Bridgeport Hospital, 4,720 at Greenwich Hospital, 17,867 at Lawrence + Memorial Hospital, and 3,782 at Westerly Hospital were included, with 44,591 ECGs across these sites for model evaluation.
“At the external hospital sites, 18,222 patients at Bridgeport Hospital, 4,720 patients at Greenwich Hospital, 17,867 patients at Lawrence + Memorial Hospital, and 3,782 patients from Westerly Hospital were included (Supplementary Figure 1), with 44,591 ECGs, randomly one chosen per person, across these sites for model evaluation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe ELSA-Brasil cohort had a median age of 62.0 years (IQR 57.0-67.0), 1,596 (53.0%) women, 1,661 (55.1%) White, 455 (15.1%) Black, and 753 (25.0%) Pardo or mixed race individuals.
“The median age of the cohort was 62.0 (IQR, 57.0-67.0) years, 1,596 (53.0%) were women, 1,661 (55.1%) were White, 455 (15.1%) were Black, and 753 (25.0%) were Pardo (or mixed race) individuals.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe training set had 261,228 ECGs from 93,693 unique patients, and the validation and internal held-out test sets had a single ECG per person from 5,512 and 11,023 patients, respectively.
“There were 261,228 ECGs from 93,693 unique patients in the training set, and the validation and internal held-out test sets had a single ECG per person from 5,512 and 11,023 patients, respectively (Supplementary Figure 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataA positive PRESENT-SHD screen portended a 2- to 4-fold higher risk of new-onset structural heart disease or heart failure, independent of demographics, comorbidities, and the competing risk of death across clinical sites and UK Biobank, with high predictive discrimination.
“A positive PRESENT-SHD screen portended a 2- to 4-fold higher risk of new-onset SHD/HF, independent of demographics, comorbidities, and the competing risk of death across clinical sites and UKB, with high predictive discrimination.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: UK Biobank electronic health record diagnosis codes and procedure codes accurately identify new-onset structural heart disease or heart failure.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataAcross hospital-based external validation sites, 63,748 individuals without SHD/HF at baseline were followed, and 4,593 (7.2%) developed incident SHD/HF over a median of 3.1 years.
“Across the hospital-based external validation sites, there were 63,748 individuals without SHD/HF at baseline and 4,593 (7.2%) developed incident SHD/HF over a median of 3.1 years (IQR, 1.3-5.0) of follow up (Supplementary Table 25).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataPRESENT-SHD demonstrated consistent performance across demographic subgroups, novel ECG formats, and smartphone photographs of ECGs from monitors and printouts.
“PRESENT-SHD demonstrated consistent performance across demographic subgroups, novel ECG formats, and smartphone photographs of ECGs from monitors and printouts.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataPRESENT-SHD risk stratification was consistent in UKB, where ECGs were protocolized and outcomes were ascertained using national EHR linkage.
“Nonetheless, the model risk stratification was consistent in the UKB, where the ECGs were protocolized and outcomes were ascertained using national EHR linkage.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAt hospital-based sites, PRESENT-SHD had AUROCs ranging from 0.854 to 0.900, with sensitivities and specificities of 93-96% and 51-56%, respectively.
“At hospital-based sites, PRESENT-SHD had AUROCs ranging from 0.854-0.900, with sensitivities and specificities of 93-96% and 51-56%, respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn the development population, 60,096 (22.5%) ECGs were paired with transthoracic echocardiograms showing structural heart disease, including 25,552 (9.5%) with LVSD, 42,989 (16.1%) with moderate or severe left-sided valvular disease, and 1,004 (0.4%) with sLVH.
“In the development population, 60,096 (22.5%) ECGs were paired with TTEs with an SHD, including 25,552 (9.5%) with LVSD, 42,989 (16.1%) with moderate or severe left-sided valvular disease, and 1,004 (0.4%) with sLVH.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataPRESENT-SHD had consistent performance across all image types, with AUROCs of 0.939 for plotted images, 0.934 for ECG screenshots, 0.932 for smartphone photographs of computer monitors, and 0.924 for smartphone photographs of printouts.
“Across ECG screenshots and smartphone photographs of monitors and printouts, the model demonstrated high agreement with plotted images (Pearson correlation coefficients, 0.959-0.977; Supplementary Figure 9) and consistent performance across all image types (AUROCs: Plotted images, 0.939 [95% CI, 0.887-0.976]; ECG screenshots, 0.934 [95% CI, 0.885-0.973]; Smartphone photographs of computer monitors”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn the held-out test set, PRESENT-SHD demonstrated an AUROC of 0.886 (0.877-0.894), 90% sensitivity, and 66% specificity.
“In the held-out test set, PRESENT-SHD demonstrated an AUROC of 0.886 (0.877-894), 90% sensitivity, and 66% specificity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn ELSA-Brasil, PRESENT-SHD had a sensitivity of 87.5% and a specificity of 61.9%.
“PRESENT-SHD also generalized well to the population-based ELSA-Brasil, with an AUROC of 0.853 (95% CI: 0.811-0.897) and a sensitivity and specificity of 87.5% and 61.9%, respectively (Table 2; Supplementary Table 11).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe development population had a median age of 67.8 years (IQR 56.1-78.3), 49,947 (50.3%) women, 13,383 (13.8%) non-Hispanic Black, and 7,754 (8.1%) Hispanic individuals.
“The development population (model training and validation sets) had a median age of 67.8 (IQR, 56.1-78.3) years, 49,947 were (50.3%) women, 13,383 (13.8%) non-Hispanic Black, and 7,754 were (8.1%) Hispanic (Supplementary Table 3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingown dataAcross hospital sites, median age at ECG ranged from 66 to 74 years, with cohorts comprising 48.3% to 50.5% women, 1.5% to 19.4% Black, and 1.4% to 15.9% Hispanic individuals.
“Across hospital sites, the median age at ECG ranged from 66 to 74 years, with cohorts comprising 48.3% to 50.5% women, 1.5% to 19.4% Black, and 1.4% to 15.9% Hispanic individuals.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationThere are no strategies to identify individuals at risk of developing structural heart diseases, despite evidence-based interventions that can alter the course of patients.
“Moreover, there are no strategies to identify individuals at risk of developing SHDs, despite the presence of evidence-based interventions that can alter the course of patients.6-8”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [6] Fleury, 2021, Sex and race differences in the pathophysiology, diagnosis, treatment, and outcomes of valvular heart diseases, Can J Cardiol source
- cites [7] Baumgartner, 2020, Timing of intervention in asymptomatic patients with valvular heart disease, Eur Heart J source
- cites [8] Wang, 2003, Natural history of asymptomatic left ventricular systolic dysfunction in the community, Circulation source
Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
PremisecitationStructural heart diseases are a spectrum of prevalent cardiac disorders with a long presymptomatic course and substantially elevated risk of heart failure and premature death.
“Structural heart diseases (SHDs) represent a spectrum of prevalent cardiac disorders with a long presymptomatic course and with substantially elevated risk of heart failure (HF) and premature death.1”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1] Steinberg, 2010, Defining structural heart disease in the adult patient: current scope, inherent challenges and future directions, Eur Heart J Suppl source
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataIndividuals at Yale New Haven Hospital were randomly divided into training, validation, and test sets (85:5:10) without any patient spanning these sets.
“We randomly divided individuals at YNHH into training, validation, and test sets (85:5:10) without any patient spanning these sets (Supplementary Figure 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataIn addition to accurate detection of cross-sectional disease, PRESENT-SHD predicted the risk of new-onset disease in those without baseline SHD, representing a novel strategy for cardiovascular risk stratification.
“Moreover, in addition to the accurate detection of cross-sectional disease, PRESENT-SHD also predicted the risk of new-onset disease in those without baseline SHD, representing a novel strategy for cardiovascular risk stratification.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataPRESENT-SHD represents a robust, scalable, and accessible modality for automated structural heart disease screening and risk stratification.
“We developed and validated PRESENT-SHD, an AI-ECG tool identifying a range of SHD using images of 12-lead ECGs, representing a robust, scalable, and accessible modality for automated SHD screening and risk stratification.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe study developed and validated a novel approach for the detection and prediction of a range of SHDs using images of 12-lead ECGs, representing a scalable and accessible tool for SHD screening and risk stratification.
“We developed and validated a novel approach for the detection and the prediction of a range of SHDs using images of 12-lead ECGs, representing a scalable and accessible tool for SHD screening and risk stratification.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenIn the ELSA-Brasil study, individuals underwent protocolized ECGs and echocardiograms concurrently at enrollment without confounding by indication.
“This is further supported by the consistent validation of PRESENT-SHD in the ELSA-Brasil study, where individuals underwent protocolized ECGs and echocardiograms concurrently at enrollment without any confounding by indication.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationThe study follows the TRIPOD + AI checklist from the EQUATOR network.
“Our study follows the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis + Artificial Intelligence (TRIPOD + AI) checklist from the EQUATOR network (Supplementary Table 2).31”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [31] 2024, TRIPOD+AI statement: updated guidance for reporting clinical prediction models that use regression or machine learning methods, BMJ
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningIn the predictive evaluation, some outcome events may have occurred outside YNHH and the community hospitals, potentially resulting in incomplete capture of longitudinal outcomes.
“Finally, in the predictive evaluation of the model, despite broad geographic coverage, some outcome events may have occurred outside the YNHH and the community hospitals, potentially resulting in incomplete capture of longitudinal outcomes.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataPRESENT-SHD had excellent performance in detecting SHDs across five distinct US hospitals with unique patients and in a population-based cohort study from Brazil.
“PRESENT-SHD had excellent performance in detecting SHDs across five distinct US hospitals with unique patients and in a population-based cohort study from Brazil.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningAn image-based AI-ECG approach is a scalable and accessible strategy for screening for SHDs and identifying those at high risk for developing SHDs.
“Thus, an image-based AI-ECG approach is a scalable and accessible strategy for screening for SHDs and identifying those at high risk for developing SHDs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
InterpretationreasoningThere is a critical unmet need for an AI-ECG-based strategy to enable cross-sectional detection and longitudinal prediction of multiple structural heart diseases simultaneously using ubiquitous, interoperable, and accessible data input in the form of ECG images.
“Thus, there is a critical unmet need for an AI-ECG-based strategy to enable cross-sectional detection and longitudinal prediction of multiple SHDs simultaneously using ubiquitous, interoperable, and accessible data input in the form of ECG images.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Most AI-ECG approaches focus on cross-sectional detection and do not quantify the risk of new-onset disease in those without structural heart disease.
The paper relies on this without support.
Most AI-ECG approaches focus on cross-sectional detection and do not quantify the risk of new-onset disease in those without structural heart disease.
“Further, most AI-ECG approaches focus on cross-sectional detection and do not quantify the risk of new-onset disease in those without SHD, which would identify a group for continued monitoring.”
The paper relies on this without support.
UK Biobank electronic health record diagnosis codes and procedure codes accurately identify new-onset structural heart disease or heart failure.
“We followed these individuals till their first encounter with an SHD or HF diagnosis code or a left-sided valve replacement or repair procedure (Supplementary Table 1).”
The paper relies on this without support.
Signal preprocessing before image plotting represents standard steps used in ECG machines before ECG images are generated or printed.
“Fourth, although the development of the model focused on plotted images, the signal preprocessing before image plotting represented standard steps used in ECG machines before ECG images are generated or printed.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Unlike low-LVEF AI-ECG, broad SHD screening is still supported mainly by retrospective multicenter validation and nonrandomized prospective or population-based cohorts, and randomized implementation data, hard downstream outcome trials, and validated gatekeeper protocols for safely deferring echocardiography remain unavailable.
“Even so, unlike low-LVEF AI-ECG—which already has pragmatic randomized trial evidence—broad SHD screening is still supported mainly by retrospective multicenter validation and nonrandomized prospective or population-based cohorts, and randomized implementation data, hard downstream outcome trials, and validated gatekeeper protocols for safely deferring echocardiography remain unavailable.14,34”
From AI-ECG for Echocardiography Triage in Structural Heart Disease: Evidence, Implementation, and Future Directions (2026) · cites this paper as [34]
Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredA model that performs well under curated conditions may still fail when ECG inputs are obtained through heterogeneous real-world pathways, including image-based formats and smartphone photographs, unless performance is validated in the intended deployment environment.
“A model that performs well under curated conditions may still fail when ECG inputs are obtained through heterogeneous real-world pathways, including image-based formats and smartphone photographs, unless performance is validated in the intended deployment environment.”
From AI-ECG for Echocardiography Triage in Structural Heart Disease: Evidence, Implementation, and Future Directions (2026) · cites this paper as [34]
Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredValvular and composite SHD AI-ECG models are promising for referral enrichment.
“Valvular and composite SHD models are promising for referral enrichment”
From AI-ECG for Echocardiography Triage in Structural Heart Disease: Evidence, Implementation, and Future Directions (2026) · cites this paper as [34]
PRESENT-SHD found that ECG image-based ensemble deep learning achieved AUROC 0.853 in ELSA-Brasil, sensitivity 88%, specificity 62%, and a positive screen was associated with 2- to 4-fold higher incident SHD/HF risk.
“AUROC 0.853 in ELSA-Brasil; sensitivity 88%; specificity 62%; positive screen associated with 2- to 4-fold higher incident SHD/HF risk”
From AI-ECG for Echocardiography Triage in Structural Heart Disease: Evidence, Implementation, and Future Directions (2026) · cites this paper as [34]
In PRESENT-SHD, an image-based composite AI-ECG model validated across four U.S. hospitals generalized to the prospective ELSA-Brasil cohort, achieving an AUROC of 0.853 with 88% sensitivity and 62% specificity; a positive screen was associated with a 2- to 4-fold higher risk of incident SHD or heart failure across external cohorts.
“In PRESENT-SHD, an image-based composite AI-ECG model validated across four U.S. hospitals also generalized to the prospective population-based ELSA-Brasil cohort, achieving an AUROC of 0.853 with 88% sensitivity and 62% specificity; a positive screen was further associated with a 2- to 4-fold higher risk of incident SHD or heart failure across external cohorts.34”
From AI-ECG for Echocardiography Triage in Structural Heart Disease: Evidence, Implementation, and Future Directions (2026) · cites this paper as [34]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Aortic-regurgitation AUROC falls outside its reported confidence interval
MinorThe reported AUROC of 0.722 is below the lower bound of its stated 95% confidence interval, 0.784.
“an AUROC of 0.722”
“95% CI, 0.784-0.824) for moderate or severe AR”
Abstract and results give different external-hospital performance ranges
MinorThe abstract gives sensitivity and specificity ranges of 93-96% and 51-56% for hospital-based sites, whereas the results give 88-96% and 51-66% for the external hospitals.
“At hospital-based sites, PRESENT-SHD had AUROCs ranging from 0.854-0.900, with sensitivities and specificities of 93-96% and 51-56%, respectively.”
“with sensitivities and specificities ranging 88-96% and 51-66%, respectively.”
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- Dhingra, 2024, Using artificial intelligence to predict heart failure risk from single-lead electrocardiographic signals: a multinational assessment, bioRxiv
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Self-citationLeone, D. M., Asztalos, I., & Mayourian, J. (2026) · Current opinion in pediatrics · doi:10.1097/mop.0000000000001612
Electrocardiogram-Based Deep Learning to Prioritize Testing for Transthyretin Amyloid Cardiomyopathy
Croon, P. M., Batinica, B., Dhingra, L. S., Choi, R. B., Oikonomou, E. K., Shankar, S. V., Sangha, V., van der Boon, R. M. A., Michels, M., van Ettinger, M. J. B., et al. (2026) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2026.16785
Self-citationAminorroaya, A., Shankar, S. V., Khan, M., Carter, M., Dhingra, L. S., Khunte, A., Lombo, B., McNamara, R. L., Oikonomou, E. K., Pedroso, A. F., et al. (2026) · medRxiv · doi:10.64898/2026.09.14.26361683
Self-citationMultiscale transformer model based on Raman spectroscopy detection in diagnosis of colorectal cancer
Xu, J., Zheng, X., Hu, Y., Li, C., Chen, X., Dai, S., Kong, X., Ding, L., Wang, B., & Ding, K. (2026) · Spectrochimica Acta Part A Molecular and Biomolecular Spectroscopy · doi:10.1016/j.saa.2026.128756
Ma, S., Wang, W., Yang, J., Wen, J., Wang, Y., & Tang, Y. (2026) · International Journal of Medical Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2026.106758
- Authors
- Dhingra, L. S., Aminorroaya, A., Sangha, V., Pedroso, A. F., Shankar, S. V., Coppi, A., Foppa, M., Brant, L. C. C., Barreto, S. M., Ribeiro, A. L. P., Krumholz, H. M., Oikonomou, E. K., & Khera, R.
- Affiliations
- Yale University (US)
- Yale New Haven Hospital (US)
- Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (BR)
- Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (BR)
- Corresponding author
- Khera, Rohan
- ORCID
- Venue
- Journal of the American College of Cardiology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2025-04
- Volume
- 85
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 1302-1313
- ISSN
- 0735-1097 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC12199746
- OpenAlex
- W4408790360
- Cited by
- 53
- References
- 42
- Citations by year
- 2026: 38 · 2025: 15
- FWCI
- 32.50
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of the American College of Cardiology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Doris Duke Charitable Foundation
- National Institutes of Health
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › ECG Monitoring and Analysis
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Machine Learning in Healthcare
- Keywords
- structural heart disease, 12-lead ECG, ensemble deep learning, convolutional neural networks, XGBoost, left ventricular ejection fraction, left ventricular hypertrophy, diastolic dysfunction, heart failure risk stratification, transthoracic echocardiography, ELSA-Brasil cohort, UK Biobank, automated disease detection, resource-limited settings, United States
- MeSH terms
- Deep Learning, Aged, Algorithms, Echocardiography, Electrocardiography, Female, Heart Diseases, Humans, Male, Mass Screening, Middle Aged, Prospective Studies
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-27.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-27.
Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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