Cited by 53ECG Monitoring and AnalysisArtificial Intelligence in HealthcareMachine Learning in Healthcare

Ensemble Deep Learning Algorithm for Structural Heart Disease Screening Using Electrocardiographic Images

Open access
Dhingra, Lovedeep S., Aminorroaya, Arya, Sangha, Veer, Pedroso, Aline F., Shankar, Sumukh Vasisht, Coppi, Andreas, Foppa, Murilo, Brant, Luisa C.C. +5 more·2025·Journal of the American College of Cardiology

Abstract

Background Identifying structural heart diseases (SHDs) early can change the course of the disease, but their diagnosis requires cardiac imaging, which is limited in accessibility. Objectives The purpose of this study was to leverage images of 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) for automated detection and prediction of multiple SHDs using an ensemble deep learning approach. Methods We developed a series of convolutional neural network models for detecting a range of individual SHDs from images of ECGs with SHDs defined by transthoracic echocardiograms performed within 30 days of the ECG at the Yale New Haven Hospital (YNHH). SHDs were defined as left ventricular ejection fraction <40%, moderate-to-severe left-sided valvular disease (aortic/mitral stenosis or regurgitation), or severe left ventricular hypertrophy (interventricular septal diameter at end-diastole >1.5 cm and diastolic dysfunction). We developed an ensemble XGBoost model, PRESENT-SHD (Practical scREening using ENsemble machine learning sTrategy for SHD detection), as a composite screen across all SHDs. We validated PRESENT-SHD at 4 U.S. hospitals and the prospective, population-based ELSA-Brasil (Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health) cohort, with concurrent protocolized ECGs and transthoracic echocardiograms. We also used PRESENT-SHD for risk stratification of new-onset SHD or heart failure (HF) in clinical cohorts and the population-based UK Biobank. Results The models were developed using 261,228 ECGs from 93,693 YNHH patients and evaluated on a single ECG from 11,023 individuals at YNHH (19% with SHD), 44,591 across external hospitals (20%-27% with SHD), and 3,014 in the ELSA-Brasil (3% with SHD). In the held-out test set, PRESENT-SHD demonstrated an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.886 (95% CI: 0.877-894), 90% sensitivity, and 66% specificity. At hospital-based sites, PRESENT-SHD had AUROCs ranging from 0.854 to 0.900, with sensitivities and specificities of 93% to 96% and 51% to 56%, respectively. The model generalized well to ELSA-Brasil (AUROC 0.853 [95% CI: 0.811-0.897], 88% sensitivity, 62% specificity). PRESENT-SHD demonstrated consistent performance across demographic subgroups, novel ECG formats, and smartphone photographs of ECGs from monitors and printouts. A positive PRESENT-SHD screen portended a 2- to 4-fold higher risk of new-onset SHD/heart failure, independent of demographics, comorbidities, and the competing risk of death across clinical sites and UK Biobank, with high predictive discrimination. Conclusions We developed and validated PRESENT-SHD, an AI-ECG tool identifying a range of SHD using images of 12-lead ECGs, representing a robust, scalable, and accessible modality for automated SHD screening and risk stratification.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

PRESENT-SHD is an ensemble deep learning model that uses images of 12-lead ECGs to detect a composite of structural heart diseases and stratify risk of new-onset SHD/HF. It showed strong discrimination across US hospitals, a Brazilian population-based cohort, and UK Biobank, including on screenshots and smartphone photographs of ECGs.

Key findings

  • In the YNHH held-out test set, PRESENT-SHD detected composite SHD with AUROC 0.886 (95% CI, 0.877-0.894), AUPRC 0.807 (95% CI, 0.791-0.823), sensitivity 89.8%, specificity 66.2%, PPV 57.4%, and NPV 92.8%.
  • External hospital AUROCs ranged from 0.854 to 0.900, with sensitivities and specificities of 88-96% and 51-66%; in ELSA-Brasil, AUROC was 0.853 (95% CI, 0.811-0.897), sensitivity 87.5%, and specificity 61.9%.
  • Performance was consistent on ECG screenshots and smartphone photographs: AUROCs were 0.939 for plotted images, 0.934 for screenshots, 0.932 for photographs of computer monitors, and 0.924 for photographs of printouts, with Pearson correlations 0.959-0.977.
  • A positive PRESENT-SHD screen was associated with higher risk of new-onset SHD/HF in YNHH (age- and sex-adjusted HR 4.28, 95% CI 3.95-4.64; Harrell’s C-statistic 0.823) and UK Biobank (aHR 2.39, 95% CI 1.87-3.04; C-statistic 0.754); each 10% increment in model probability was associated with a 36% higher hazard in YNHH (aHR 1.36, 95% CI 1.35-1.38).

Methods

  • The authors trained 6 independent CNN models based on EfficientNet-B3 to detect individual SHD components from ECG images, using 261,228 ECGs from 93,693 YNHH patients; these outputs plus age and sex were combined in an XGBoost ensemble, PRESENT-SHD.
  • SHD was defined by transthoracic echocardiogram within 30 days of ECG as LVEF <40%, moderate-to-severe left-sided valvular disease, or severe LV hypertrophy (IVSd >1.5 cm plus moderate-to-severe diastolic dysfunction). Validation included 11,023 individuals at YNHH, 44,591 across 4 external US hospitals, 3,014 in ELSA-Brasil, and UK Biobank for incident prediction.
  • Performance was assessed with AUROC, AUPRC, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and F1 score with 95% CIs; new-onset SHD/HF was evaluated using age- and sex-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models and Fine-Gray competing-risk models, with Harrell’s C-statistic.

Limitations

  • The paper states that the development population was selected patients with a clinical indication for ECG and TTE, so continued prospective validation is needed before broad screening use; real-world feasibility and performance of screenshots and smartphone-captured ECG photographs also require prospective evaluation.
  • The paper states that model performance was lower in individuals aged 65 and older, potentially limiting reliability as a standalone tool to rule out the need for cardiac imaging, and that cost-effectiveness was not evaluated.
  • The paper notes possible incomplete capture of longitudinal outcomes outside YNHH and community hospitals; evident from the text, the study is retrospective and does not test whether screening with PRESENT-SHD improves clinical outcomes.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.jacc.2025.01.030

Cites

45 of 45 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

24 of 44 cited sources checked · 14 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    A key challenge of AI-ECG models in detecting specific cardiac disorders using ECGs is low precision driven by the low prevalence of individual disorders.

    “A key challenge of AI-ECG models in detecting specific cardiac disorders using ECGs is the low precision driven by the low prevalence of individual disorders.10-12”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [10] Attia, 2019, Screening for cardiac contractile dysfunction using an artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiogram, Nat Med source
    • cites [11] Sangha, 2023, Detection of Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction From Electrocardiographic Images, Circulation source

      The Results (page unavailable) report a positive predictive value of 0.26 for the AI-ECG model detecting left ventricular systolic dysfunction. The Discussion (page unavailable) notes lower disorder prevalence in a healthier validation cohort, but does not say that low prevalence drove low precision or establish this as a general challenge across individual cardiac disorders. (LLM, conf=0.82)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [12] Cohen-Shelly, 2021, Electrocardiogram screening for aortic valve stenosis using artificial intelligence, Eur Heart J source
  • Interpretationcitation

    The use of ECG images as input and a flexible strategy that allows for varying formats supports the scalability of the approach across resource settings.

    “Moreover, the use of ECG images as the input, and a flexible strategy that allows for varying formats, supports the scalability of the approach across resources settings.38”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [38] Oikonomou, 2024, Tracking the pre-clinical progression of transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy using artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiography and echocardiography, bioRxiv source
  • Premisecitation

    The low prevalence of individual structural heart diseases limits the potential implementation of models for broad screening because of the low PPVs of the proposed models.

    “While these models provide a strong foundation for the role of ECG-based detection of SHDs, the low prevalence of these individual diseases, their potential implementation for broad screening is limited by the low PPVs of the proposed models.10-12,16,32-34”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim4 of 7 sources checked
    • cites [10] Attia, 2019, Screening for cardiac contractile dysfunction using an artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiogram, Nat Med source
    • cites [11] Sangha, 2023, Detection of Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction From Electrocardiographic Images, Circulation source

      The Results (Detection of LV Systolic Dysfunction; page unavailable) report a PPV of 0.26. The Discussion (page unavailable) notes lower disease prevalence in a healthier validation cohort and says screening thresholds may need recalibration. The paper does not conclude that low prevalence and PPV limit broad screening implementation; it calls for prospective assessment in that setting. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [12] Cohen-Shelly, 2021, Electrocardiogram screening for aortic valve stenosis using artificial intelligence, Eur Heart J source
    • cites [16] Sangha, 2023, Identification of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy on electrocardiographic images with deep learning, medRxiv source

      The Discussion says community-based screening with this HCM model can produce high false-positive rates and that low prevalence limits screening yield. The Results report only 29 HCM cases among 45,389 UK Biobank ECGs. This supports the concern for HCM, but the paper does not establish low PPVs or screening limitations across multiple structural heart diseases and their proposed models. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [32] Ko, 2020, Detection of Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Using a Convolutional Neural Network-Enabled Electrocardiogram, J Am Coll Cardiol source
    • cites [33] Goto, 2022, Multinational federated learning approach to train ECG and echocardiogram models for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy detection, Circulation source

      The Methods describe an HCM surveillance cohort with 0.5% prevalence, and the Results report a 1% PPV for the ECG model at a high-sensitivity cutoff. The Discussion says PPV affects which follow-up actions are appropriate, but it does not conclude that low PPV precludes broad screening; it proposes systematic ECG screening followed by echocardiography. The paper addresses HCM, not structural heart diseases generally. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [34] Grogan, 2021, Artificial intelligence–enhanced electrocardiogram for the early detection of cardiac amyloidosis, Mayo Clin Proc source
  • Findingown data

    Of 127,547 individuals at risk in YNHH, 5,346 (4.2%) had new-onset SHD/HF over a median of 4.0 years of follow-up.

    “Of the 127,547 individuals at risk in YNHH, 5,346 (4.2%) had new-onset SHD/HF over a median of 4.0 (IQR 1.7-6.4) years of follow-up.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    PRESENT-SHD generalized to the external validation cohort at Lawrence + Memorial with an AUROC of 0.871 (95% CI, 0.864-0.878).

    “Further, PRESENT-SHD generalized well to the external validation cohorts at Bridgeport (AUROC, 0.854 [95% CI, 0.847-0.862]), Greenwich (AUROC, 0.900 [95% CI, 0.888-0.913]), Lawrence + Memorial (AUROC, 0.871 [95% CI, 0.864-0.878]), and Westerly (AUROC, 0.887 [95% CI, 0.874-0.902]) Hospitals, with sensitivities and specificities ranging 88-96% and 51-66%, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 9
  • May combine two claims. 29
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Previously, applications of artificial intelligence for electrocardiograms have shown potential to detect signatures of structural heart diseases.

    “Previously applications of artificial intelligence for electrocardiograms (AI-ECG) have shown potential to detect signatures of SHDs.10-18”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim6 of 9 sources checked
    • cites [10] Attia, 2019, Screening for cardiac contractile dysfunction using an artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiogram, Nat Med source
    • cites [11] Sangha, 2023, Detection of Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction From Electrocardiographic Images, Circulation source
    • cites [12] Cohen-Shelly, 2021, Electrocardiogram screening for aortic valve stenosis using artificial intelligence, Eur Heart J source
    • cites [13] Bjerkén, 2023, Artificial intelligence enabled ECG screening for left ventricular systolic dysfunction: a systematic review, Heart Fail Rev source
    • cites [14] Khunte, 2023, Detection of left ventricular systolic dysfunction from single-lead electrocardiography adapted for portable and wearable devices, NPJ Digit Med source
    • cites [15] Oikonomou, 2025, Artificial intelligence-enhanced risk stratification of cancer therapeutics-related cardiac dysfunction using electrocardiographic images, Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes source
    • cites [16] Sangha, 2023, Identification of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy on electrocardiographic images with deep learning, medRxiv source
    • cites [17] Dhingra, 2024, A multicenter evaluation of the impact of procedural and pharmacological interventions on deep learning-based electrocardiographic markers of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, bioRxiv source
    • cites [18] Dhingra, 2024, Using artificial intelligence to predict heart failure risk from single-lead electrocardiographic signals: a multinational assessment, bioRxiv source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Structural heart diseases are often diagnosed after the development of clinical symptoms, leading to poor health outcomes.

    “Consequently, these conditions are often diagnosed after the development of clinical symptoms, leading to poor health outcomes.4-6”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [4] Alkhouli, 2019, Racial disparities in the utilization and outcomes of structural heart disease interventions in the United States, J Am Heart Assoc source

      The Introduction and Discussion address racial disparities in access to structural heart disease interventions, while the Conclusions address short-term outcomes after those procedures. Our copy does not say that these conditions are often diagnosed after symptoms develop or that such diagnostic timing leads to poor outcomes (searched for diagnosis after symptoms and late diagnosis with poor outcomes). (LLM, conf=0.75)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [5] Samad, 2017, Prevalence and outcomes of left-sided valvular heart disease associated with Chronic kidney disease, J Am Heart Assoc source

      The Conclusions report that left-sided valve disease is associated with higher mortality among patients with CKD, supporting the poor-outcomes portion for that population. Neither the Conclusions nor the Discussion’s Clinical Implications section says these conditions are often diagnosed only after symptoms develop, or that delayed diagnosis causes the poor outcomes. (LLM, conf=0.82)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [6] Fleury, 2021, Sex and race differences in the pathophysiology, diagnosis, treatment, and outcomes of valvular heart diseases, Can J Cardiol source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Detection of structural heart diseases has traditionally required advanced cardiac imaging, including echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, which are resource-intensive and not suitable for large-scale disease screening.

    “The detection of these disorders has traditionally required advanced cardiac imaging, including echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, which are resource-intensive and, therefore, not suitable for large-scale disease screening.2,3”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [2] Picano, 2005, Economic and biological costs of cardiac imaging, Cardiovasc Ultrasound source

      The section “The cost of cardiac imaging” reports costs for echocardiography and cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging, supporting the claim that these tests use substantial resources. It does not say that detecting structural heart disease traditionally required them or that they are unsuitable for large-scale screening; it also notes a cost-effective example of ultrasound screening for a different condition. No page numbers are available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [3] Vitola, 2009, Assessing the need for nuclear cardiology and other advanced cardiac imaging modalities in the developing world, J Nucl Cardiol source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    These ensemble models use raw ECG voltage data as inputs, which are inaccessible to clinicians at the point of care and often require modifications to the technical infrastructure to account for vendor-specific data formats.

    “Nonetheless, these models use raw ECG voltage data as inputs, which are inaccessible to clinicians at the point of care and often require modifications to the technical infrastructure to account for vendor-specific data formats.19”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [19] Ulloa-Cerna, 2022, rECHOmmend: An ECG-Based Machine Learning Approach for Identifying Patients at Increased Risk of Undiagnosed Structural Heart Disease Detectable by Echocardiography, Circulation source

      Methods (Model Development; page not provided) says the CNN models use raw ECG trace data as input, supporting that part of the claim. The paper does not say those data are inaccessible to clinicians at the point of care or that vendor-specific formats often require infrastructure changes. Instead, the Discussion says the featured model uses data readily available from ECG systems and could be easily deployed across most health care systems. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Prior studies have reported the use of deep learning on 12-lead ECGs to detect individual structural cardiovascular conditions, including LVSD, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, cardiac amyloidosis, and aortic stenosis.

    “Prior studies have reported the use of deep learning on 12-lead ECGs to detect individual structural cardiovascular conditions, including LVSD,10,11,13 hypertrophic cardiomyopathy,16,32,33 cardiac amyloidosis,34,35 aortic stenosis,12 among others.15,35-37”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim6 of 8 sources checked
    • cites [10] Attia, 2019, Screening for cardiac contractile dysfunction using an artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiogram, Nat Med source
    • cites [11] Sangha, 2023, Detection of Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction From Electrocardiographic Images, Circulation source
    • cites [13] Bjerkén, 2023, Artificial intelligence enabled ECG screening for left ventricular systolic dysfunction: a systematic review, Heart Fail Rev source
    • cites [16] Sangha, 2023, Identification of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy on electrocardiographic images with deep learning, medRxiv source
    • cites [32] Ko, 2020, Detection of Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Using a Convolutional Neural Network-Enabled Electrocardiogram, J Am Coll Cardiol source
    • cites [33] Goto, 2022, Multinational federated learning approach to train ECG and echocardiogram models for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy detection, Circulation source
    • cites [34] Grogan, 2021, Artificial intelligence–enhanced electrocardiogram for the early detection of cardiac amyloidosis, Mayo Clin Proc source
    • cites [35] Taborsky, 2022, Detection of arrhythmias in patients with cardiac amyloidosis using implantable ECG recorders, Eur Heart J source

      The Methods and Conclusions (page not specified) describe implantable ECG loop recorders used to detect arrhythmias in patients already diagnosed with cardiac amyloidosis. Searches for deep learning, neural networks, and 12-lead ECG diagnosis found no passage about using them to detect cardiac amyloidosis. (LLM, conf=0.78)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Ensemble models for detecting a composite of multiple structural heart diseases have been proposed to overcome low precision.

    “To overcome this limitation, ensemble models for detecting a composite of multiple SHDs have been proposed.19”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [19] Ulloa-Cerna, 2022, rECHOmmend: An ECG-Based Machine Learning Approach for Identifying Patients at Increased Risk of Undiagnosed Structural Heart Disease Detectable by Echocardiography, Circulation source

      The Clinical Implications section says the authors combined seven structural heart disease outcomes into a composite prediction to increase diagnostic yield, and the Results report higher positive predictive value than the individual-disease models. But the Methods describe a model trained to predict the composite label, not an ensemble of models; that characterization is unsupported by our copy. No page numbers are available in the indexed passages. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The simultaneous detection of multiple SHDs increases the composite disease prevalence and improves model precision.

    “The simultaneous detection of multiple SHDs increases the composite disease prevalence and improves model precision.19”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [19] Ulloa-Cerna, 2022, rECHOmmend: An ECG-Based Machine Learning Approach for Identifying Patients at Increased Risk of Undiagnosed Structural Heart Disease Detectable by Echocardiography, Circulation source
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In ELSA-Brasil, 88 (2.9%) individuals had structural heart disease, with 37 (1.2%) having LVSD, 55 (1.8%) moderate or severe left-sided valvular disease, and 6 (0.2%) sLVH.

    “A total of 88 (2.9%) individuals had SHD, with 37 (1.2%) with LVSD, 55 (1.8%) with moderate or severe left-sided valvular disease, and 6 (0.2%) with sLVH (Supplementary Table 4).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The models were developed using 261,228 ECGs from 93,693 Yale New Haven Hospital patients and evaluated on a single ECG from 11,023 individuals at Yale New Haven Hospital (19% with structural heart disease), 44,591 across external hospitals (20-27% with structural heart disease), and 3,014 in ELSA-Brasil (3% with structural heart disease).

    “The models were developed using 261,228 ECGs from 93,693 YNHH patients and evaluated on a single ECG from 11,023 individuals at YNHH (19% with SHD), 44,591 across external hospitals (20-27% with SHD), and 3,014 in the ELSA-Brasil (3% with SHD).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    At external hospital sites, 18,222 patients at Bridgeport Hospital, 4,720 at Greenwich Hospital, 17,867 at Lawrence + Memorial Hospital, and 3,782 at Westerly Hospital were included, with 44,591 ECGs across these sites for model evaluation.

    “At the external hospital sites, 18,222 patients at Bridgeport Hospital, 4,720 patients at Greenwich Hospital, 17,867 patients at Lawrence + Memorial Hospital, and 3,782 patients from Westerly Hospital were included (Supplementary Figure 1), with 44,591 ECGs, randomly one chosen per person, across these sites for model evaluation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The ELSA-Brasil cohort had a median age of 62.0 years (IQR 57.0-67.0), 1,596 (53.0%) women, 1,661 (55.1%) White, 455 (15.1%) Black, and 753 (25.0%) Pardo or mixed race individuals.

    “The median age of the cohort was 62.0 (IQR, 57.0-67.0) years, 1,596 (53.0%) were women, 1,661 (55.1%) were White, 455 (15.1%) were Black, and 753 (25.0%) were Pardo (or mixed race) individuals.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The training set had 261,228 ECGs from 93,693 unique patients, and the validation and internal held-out test sets had a single ECG per person from 5,512 and 11,023 patients, respectively.

    “There were 261,228 ECGs from 93,693 unique patients in the training set, and the validation and internal held-out test sets had a single ECG per person from 5,512 and 11,023 patients, respectively (Supplementary Figure 1).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    A positive PRESENT-SHD screen portended a 2- to 4-fold higher risk of new-onset structural heart disease or heart failure, independent of demographics, comorbidities, and the competing risk of death across clinical sites and UK Biobank, with high predictive discrimination.

    “A positive PRESENT-SHD screen portended a 2- to 4-fold higher risk of new-onset SHD/HF, independent of demographics, comorbidities, and the competing risk of death across clinical sites and UKB, with high predictive discrimination.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: UK Biobank electronic health record diagnosis codes and procedure codes accurately identify new-onset structural heart disease or heart failure.
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Across hospital-based external validation sites, 63,748 individuals without SHD/HF at baseline were followed, and 4,593 (7.2%) developed incident SHD/HF over a median of 3.1 years.

    “Across the hospital-based external validation sites, there were 63,748 individuals without SHD/HF at baseline and 4,593 (7.2%) developed incident SHD/HF over a median of 3.1 years (IQR, 1.3-5.0) of follow up (Supplementary Table 25).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    PRESENT-SHD demonstrated consistent performance across demographic subgroups, novel ECG formats, and smartphone photographs of ECGs from monitors and printouts.

    “PRESENT-SHD demonstrated consistent performance across demographic subgroups, novel ECG formats, and smartphone photographs of ECGs from monitors and printouts.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    PRESENT-SHD risk stratification was consistent in UKB, where ECGs were protocolized and outcomes were ascertained using national EHR linkage.

    “Nonetheless, the model risk stratification was consistent in the UKB, where the ECGs were protocolized and outcomes were ascertained using national EHR linkage.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    At hospital-based sites, PRESENT-SHD had AUROCs ranging from 0.854 to 0.900, with sensitivities and specificities of 93-96% and 51-56%, respectively.

    “At hospital-based sites, PRESENT-SHD had AUROCs ranging from 0.854-0.900, with sensitivities and specificities of 93-96% and 51-56%, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the development population, 60,096 (22.5%) ECGs were paired with transthoracic echocardiograms showing structural heart disease, including 25,552 (9.5%) with LVSD, 42,989 (16.1%) with moderate or severe left-sided valvular disease, and 1,004 (0.4%) with sLVH.

    “In the development population, 60,096 (22.5%) ECGs were paired with TTEs with an SHD, including 25,552 (9.5%) with LVSD, 42,989 (16.1%) with moderate or severe left-sided valvular disease, and 1,004 (0.4%) with sLVH.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    PRESENT-SHD had consistent performance across all image types, with AUROCs of 0.939 for plotted images, 0.934 for ECG screenshots, 0.932 for smartphone photographs of computer monitors, and 0.924 for smartphone photographs of printouts.

    “Across ECG screenshots and smartphone photographs of monitors and printouts, the model demonstrated high agreement with plotted images (Pearson correlation coefficients, 0.959-0.977; Supplementary Figure 9) and consistent performance across all image types (AUROCs: Plotted images, 0.939 [95% CI, 0.887-0.976]; ECG screenshots, 0.934 [95% CI, 0.885-0.973]; Smartphone photographs of computer monitors”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the held-out test set, PRESENT-SHD demonstrated an AUROC of 0.886 (0.877-0.894), 90% sensitivity, and 66% specificity.

    “In the held-out test set, PRESENT-SHD demonstrated an AUROC of 0.886 (0.877-894), 90% sensitivity, and 66% specificity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In ELSA-Brasil, PRESENT-SHD had a sensitivity of 87.5% and a specificity of 61.9%.

    “PRESENT-SHD also generalized well to the population-based ELSA-Brasil, with an AUROC of 0.853 (95% CI: 0.811-0.897) and a sensitivity and specificity of 87.5% and 61.9%, respectively (Table 2; Supplementary Table 11).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The development population had a median age of 67.8 years (IQR 56.1-78.3), 49,947 (50.3%) women, 13,383 (13.8%) non-Hispanic Black, and 7,754 (8.1%) Hispanic individuals.

    “The development population (model training and validation sets) had a median age of 67.8 (IQR, 56.1-78.3) years, 49,947 were (50.3%) women, 13,383 (13.8%) non-Hispanic Black, and 7,754 were (8.1%) Hispanic (Supplementary Table 3).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Across hospital sites, median age at ECG ranged from 66 to 74 years, with cohorts comprising 48.3% to 50.5% women, 1.5% to 19.4% Black, and 1.4% to 15.9% Hispanic individuals.

    “Across hospital sites, the median age at ECG ranged from 66 to 74 years, with cohorts comprising 48.3% to 50.5% women, 1.5% to 19.4% Black, and 1.4% to 15.9% Hispanic individuals.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    There are no strategies to identify individuals at risk of developing structural heart diseases, despite evidence-based interventions that can alter the course of patients.

    “Moreover, there are no strategies to identify individuals at risk of developing SHDs, despite the presence of evidence-based interventions that can alter the course of patients.6-8”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [6] Fleury, 2021, Sex and race differences in the pathophysiology, diagnosis, treatment, and outcomes of valvular heart diseases, Can J Cardiol source
    • cites [7] Baumgartner, 2020, Timing of intervention in asymptomatic patients with valvular heart disease, Eur Heart J source
    • cites [8] Wang, 2003, Natural history of asymptomatic left ventricular systolic dysfunction in the community, Circulation source
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Structural heart diseases are a spectrum of prevalent cardiac disorders with a long presymptomatic course and substantially elevated risk of heart failure and premature death.

    “Structural heart diseases (SHDs) represent a spectrum of prevalent cardiac disorders with a long presymptomatic course and with substantially elevated risk of heart failure (HF) and premature death.1”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [1] Steinberg, 2010, Defining structural heart disease in the adult patient: current scope, inherent challenges and future directions, Eur Heart J Suppl source
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    Individuals at Yale New Haven Hospital were randomly divided into training, validation, and test sets (85:5:10) without any patient spanning these sets.

    “We randomly divided individuals at YNHH into training, validation, and test sets (85:5:10) without any patient spanning these sets (Supplementary Figure 1).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    In addition to accurate detection of cross-sectional disease, PRESENT-SHD predicted the risk of new-onset disease in those without baseline SHD, representing a novel strategy for cardiovascular risk stratification.

    “Moreover, in addition to the accurate detection of cross-sectional disease, PRESENT-SHD also predicted the risk of new-onset disease in those without baseline SHD, representing a novel strategy for cardiovascular risk stratification.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    PRESENT-SHD represents a robust, scalable, and accessible modality for automated structural heart disease screening and risk stratification.

    “We developed and validated PRESENT-SHD, an AI-ECG tool identifying a range of SHD using images of 12-lead ECGs, representing a robust, scalable, and accessible modality for automated SHD screening and risk stratification.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The study developed and validated a novel approach for the detection and prediction of a range of SHDs using images of 12-lead ECGs, representing a scalable and accessible tool for SHD screening and risk stratification.

    “We developed and validated a novel approach for the detection and the prediction of a range of SHDs using images of 12-lead ECGs, representing a scalable and accessible tool for SHD screening and risk stratification.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    In the ELSA-Brasil study, individuals underwent protocolized ECGs and echocardiograms concurrently at enrollment without confounding by indication.

    “This is further supported by the consistent validation of PRESENT-SHD in the ELSA-Brasil study, where individuals underwent protocolized ECGs and echocardiograms concurrently at enrollment without any confounding by indication.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductcitation

    The study follows the TRIPOD + AI checklist from the EQUATOR network.

    “Our study follows the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis + Artificial Intelligence (TRIPOD + AI) checklist from the EQUATOR network (Supplementary Table 2).31”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [31] 2024, TRIPOD+AI statement: updated guidance for reporting clinical prediction models that use regression or machine learning methods, BMJ

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    In the predictive evaluation, some outcome events may have occurred outside YNHH and the community hospitals, potentially resulting in incomplete capture of longitudinal outcomes.

    “Finally, in the predictive evaluation of the model, despite broad geographic coverage, some outcome events may have occurred outside the YNHH and the community hospitals, potentially resulting in incomplete capture of longitudinal outcomes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    PRESENT-SHD had excellent performance in detecting SHDs across five distinct US hospitals with unique patients and in a population-based cohort study from Brazil.

    “PRESENT-SHD had excellent performance in detecting SHDs across five distinct US hospitals with unique patients and in a population-based cohort study from Brazil.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    An image-based AI-ECG approach is a scalable and accessible strategy for screening for SHDs and identifying those at high risk for developing SHDs.

    “Thus, an image-based AI-ECG approach is a scalable and accessible strategy for screening for SHDs and identifying those at high risk for developing SHDs.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    There is a critical unmet need for an AI-ECG-based strategy to enable cross-sectional detection and longitudinal prediction of multiple structural heart diseases simultaneously using ubiquitous, interoperable, and accessible data input in the form of ECG images.

    “Thus, there is a critical unmet need for an AI-ECG-based strategy to enable cross-sectional detection and longitudinal prediction of multiple SHDs simultaneously using ubiquitous, interoperable, and accessible data input in the form of ECG images.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Most AI-ECG approaches focus on cross-sectional detection and do not quantify the risk of new-onset disease in those without structural heart disease.
35 of 35
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Most AI-ECG approaches focus on cross-sectional detection and do not quantify the risk of new-onset disease in those without structural heart disease.

    “Further, most AI-ECG approaches focus on cross-sectional detection and do not quantify the risk of new-onset disease in those without SHD, which would identify a group for continued monitoring.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    UK Biobank electronic health record diagnosis codes and procedure codes accurately identify new-onset structural heart disease or heart failure.

    “We followed these individuals till their first encounter with an SHD or HF diagnosis code or a left-sided valve replacement or repair procedure (Supplementary Table 1).”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Signal preprocessing before image plotting represents standard steps used in ECG machines before ECG images are generated or printed.

    “Fourth, although the development of the model focused on plotted images, the signal preprocessing before image plotting represented standard steps used in ECG machines before ECG images are generated or printed.”
3 of 3

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Unlike low-LVEF AI-ECG, broad SHD screening is still supported mainly by retrospective multicenter validation and nonrandomized prospective or population-based cohorts, and randomized implementation data, hard downstream outcome trials, and validated gatekeeper protocols for safely deferring echocardiography remain unavailable.

    “Even so, unlike low-LVEF AI-ECG—which already has pragmatic randomized trial evidence—broad SHD screening is still supported mainly by retrospective multicenter validation and nonrandomized prospective or population-based cohorts, and randomized implementation data, hard downstream outcome trials, and validated gatekeeper protocols for safely deferring echocardiography remain unavailable.14,34”

    From AI-ECG for Echocardiography Triage in Structural Heart Disease: Evidence, Implementation, and Future Directions (2026) · cites this paper as [34]

    Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • A model that performs well under curated conditions may still fail when ECG inputs are obtained through heterogeneous real-world pathways, including image-based formats and smartphone photographs, unless performance is validated in the intended deployment environment.

    “A model that performs well under curated conditions may still fail when ECG inputs are obtained through heterogeneous real-world pathways, including image-based formats and smartphone photographs, unless performance is validated in the intended deployment environment.”

    From AI-ECG for Echocardiography Triage in Structural Heart Disease: Evidence, Implementation, and Future Directions (2026) · cites this paper as [34]

    Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Valvular and composite SHD AI-ECG models are promising for referral enrichment.

    “Valvular and composite SHD models are promising for referral enrichment”
  • PRESENT-SHD found that ECG image-based ensemble deep learning achieved AUROC 0.853 in ELSA-Brasil, sensitivity 88%, specificity 62%, and a positive screen was associated with 2- to 4-fold higher incident SHD/HF risk.

    “AUROC 0.853 in ELSA-Brasil; sensitivity 88%; specificity 62%; positive screen associated with 2- to 4-fold higher incident SHD/HF risk”
  • In PRESENT-SHD, an image-based composite AI-ECG model validated across four U.S. hospitals generalized to the prospective ELSA-Brasil cohort, achieving an AUROC of 0.853 with 88% sensitivity and 62% specificity; a positive screen was associated with a 2- to 4-fold higher risk of incident SHD or heart failure across external cohorts.

    “In PRESENT-SHD, an image-based composite AI-ECG model validated across four U.S. hospitals also generalized to the prospective population-based ELSA-Brasil cohort, achieving an AUROC of 0.853 with 88% sensitivity and 62% specificity; a positive screen was further associated with a 2- to 4-fold higher risk of incident SHD or heart failure across external cohorts.34”

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Aortic-regurgitation AUROC falls outside its reported confidence interval

    Minor

    The reported AUROC of 0.722 is below the lower bound of its stated 95% confidence interval, 0.784.

  • Abstract and results give different external-hospital performance ranges

    Minor

    The abstract gives sensitivity and specificity ranges of 93-96% and 51-56% for hospital-based sites, whereas the results give 88-96% and 51-66% for the external hospitals.

2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 1

  1. Dhingra, 2024, Using artificial intelligence to predict heart failure risk from single-lead electrocardiographic signals: a multinational assessment, bioRxiv

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Dhingra, L. S., Aminorroaya, A., Sangha, V., Pedroso, A. F., Shankar, S. V., Coppi, A., Foppa, M., Brant, L. C. C., Barreto, S. M., Ribeiro, A. L. P., Krumholz, H. M., Oikonomou, E. K., & Khera, R.
Affiliations
  • Yale University (US)
  • Yale New Haven Hospital (US)
  • Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (BR)
  • Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (BR)
Corresponding author
Khera, Rohan
Venue
Journal of the American College of Cardiology
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2025-04
Volume
85
Issue
12
Pages
1302-1313
ISSN
0735-1097 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W4408790360
Cited by
53
References
42
Citations by year
2026: 38 · 2025: 15
FWCI
32.50
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Journal of the American College of Cardiology (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • Doris Duke Charitable Foundation
  • National Institutes of Health
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › ECG Monitoring and Analysis
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Machine Learning in Healthcare
Keywords
structural heart disease, 12-lead ECG, ensemble deep learning, convolutional neural networks, XGBoost, left ventricular ejection fraction, left ventricular hypertrophy, diastolic dysfunction, heart failure risk stratification, transthoracic echocardiography, ELSA-Brasil cohort, UK Biobank, automated disease detection, resource-limited settings, United States
MeSH terms
Deep Learning, Aged, Algorithms, Echocardiography, Electrocardiography, Female, Heart Diseases, Humans, Male, Mass Screening, Middle Aged, Prospective Studies

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-27.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-27.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

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