Screening for cardiac contractile dysfunction using an artificial intelligence–enabled electrocardiogram
Abstract
Asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction (ALVD) is present in 3-6% of the general population, is associated with reduced quality of life and longevity, and is treatable when found 1-4. An inexpensive, noninvasive screening tool for ALVD in the doctor's office is not available. We tested the hypothesis that application of artificial intelligence (AI) to the electrocardiogram (ECG), a routine method of measuring the heart's electrical activity, could identify ALVD. Using paired 12-lead ECG and echocardiogram data, including the left ventricular ejection fraction (a measure of contractile function), from 44,959 patients at the Mayo Clinic, we trained a convolutional neural network to identify patients with ventricular dysfunction, defined as ejection fraction ≤35%, using the ECG data alone. When tested on an independent set of 52,870 patients, the network model yielded values for the area under the curve, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 0.93, 86.3%, 85.7%, and 85.7%, respectively. In patients without ventricular dysfunction, those with a positive AI screen were at 4 times the risk (hazard ratio, 4.1; 95% confidence interval, 3.3 to 5.0) of developing future ventricular dysfunction compared with those with a negative screen. Application of AI to the ECG-a ubiquitous, low-cost test-permits the ECG to serve as a powerful screening tool in asymptomatic individuals to identify ALVD.
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A landmark 2019 study demonstrated that AI-ECG could identify reduced LVEF from routine 12-lead recordings with strong discriminatory performance, establishing the principle that an inexpensive and widely available test could function as an upstream screening instrument for abnormalities ordinarily confirmed by echocardiography.
“A landmark 2019 study demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI)-ECG could identify reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) from routine 12-lead recordings with strong discriminatory performance, establishing the principle that an inexpensive and widely available test could function as an upstream screening instrument for abnormalities ordinarily confirmed by echocardiography.12”
From AI-ECG for Echocardiography Triage in Structural Heart Disease: Evidence, Implementation, and Future Directions (2026) · cites this paper as [12]
At present, AI-ECG is better interpreted as a tool for risk enrichment and follow-up prioritization in selected screening settings than as a stand-alone mandate for structured surveillance or immediate pathway escalation.
“At present, AI-ECG is better interpreted as a tool for risk enrichment and follow-up prioritization in selected screening settings than as a stand-alone mandate for structured surveillance or immediate pathway escalation.12,19,44,45”
From AI-ECG for Echocardiography Triage in Structural Heart Disease: Evidence, Implementation, and Future Directions (2026) · cites this paper as [12]
Patients without baseline ventricular dysfunction but with a positive AI-ECG screen had a fourfold higher risk of developing future ventricular dysfunction than those with a negative screen.
“In the same study, patients without baseline ventricular dysfunction but with a positive AI-ECG screen had a fourfold higher risk of developing future ventricular dysfunction than those with a negative screen.12”
From AI-ECG for Echocardiography Triage in Structural Heart Disease: Evidence, Implementation, and Future Directions (2026) · cites this paper as [12]
In the original Attia et al. study, patients with false-positive low-EF screens had a fourfold higher risk of developing future ventricular dysfunction (hazard ratio 4.1; 95% CI 3.3-5.0).
“In the original Attia et al study, patients with false-positive low-EF screens had a fourfold higher risk of developing future ventricular dysfunction (hazard ratio 4.1; 95% CI 3.3–5.0).12”
From AI-ECG for Echocardiography Triage in Structural Heart Disease: Evidence, Implementation, and Future Directions (2026) · cites this paper as [12]
Attia et al 2019 found that AI-ECG for reduced LVEF achieved AUC 0.93 and NPV 98.7%, and AI-positive/echo-negative patients had higher future ventricular dysfunction risk.
“AUC 0.93; NPV 98.7%; AI-positive/echo-negative patients had higher future ventricular dysfunction risk”
From AI-ECG for Echocardiography Triage in Structural Heart Disease: Evidence, Implementation, and Future Directions (2026) · cites this paper as [12]
Attia et al. in 2019 demonstrated that a convolutional neural network could detect LVEF ≤35% with an AUC of 0.93 and a negative predictive value of 98.7%.
“The field was established by Attia et al in 2019, who demonstrated that a convolutional neural network could detect LVEF ≤35% with an AUC of 0.93 and a negative predictive value of 98.7%.”
From AI-ECG for Echocardiography Triage in Structural Heart Disease: Evidence, Implementation, and Future Directions (2026) · cites this paper as [12]
The regulatory maturity of AI-ECG for SHD screening remains uneven.
“The regulatory maturity of AI-ECG for SHD screening remains uneven.”
From AI-ECG for Echocardiography Triage in Structural Heart Disease: Evidence, Implementation, and Future Directions (2026) · cites this paper as [12]
Low-LVEF detection is the most mature use case, having already progressed from model development to randomized trials and early implementation studies.
“Low-LVEF detection is the most mature use case, having already progressed from model development to randomized trials and early implementation studies.”
From AI-ECG for Echocardiography Triage in Structural Heart Disease: Evidence, Implementation, and Future Directions (2026) · cites this paper as [12]
ECG waveforms contain latent signatures of ventricular dysfunction.
“Emerging evidence suggests that ECG waveforms contain latent signatures of ventricular dysfunction [4], structural heart disease [5], metabolic abnormalities [6], and broader physiologic characteristics such as biological age [7] and future mortality risk [8].”
From Deep Learning Applied to 12-Lead ECGs for Detection of Structural, Metabolic and Systemic Disease (2026) · cites this paper as [4]
Attia et al.'s CNN identified patients with LVEF ≤ 35% with an AUC of 0.93, sensitivity of 86.3%, and specificity of 85.7%.
“The model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.93, with a sensitivity of 86.3% and specificity of 85.7%, a strong performance for a test this cheap and widely available [4].”
From Deep Learning Applied to 12-Lead ECGs for Detection of Structural, Metabolic and Systemic Disease (2026) · cites this paper as [4]
Patients with a positive AI-ECG despite a preserved ejection fraction were more likely to develop ventricular dysfunction during follow-up.
“Notably, patients with a positive AI-ECG despite a preserved ejection fraction were more likely to develop ventricular dysfunction during follow-up, suggesting that the model may be identifying subclinical disease rather than only established systolic dysfunction, positioning AI-ECG as a screening tool for both current and future ventricular dysfunction.”
From Deep Learning Applied to 12-Lead ECGs for Detection of Structural, Metabolic and Systemic Disease (2026) · cites this paper as [4]
AI-ECG may identify subclinical disease rather than only established systolic dysfunction.
“Notably, patients with a positive AI-ECG despite a preserved ejection fraction were more likely to develop ventricular dysfunction during follow-up, suggesting that the model may be identifying subclinical disease rather than only established systolic dysfunction, positioning AI-ECG as a screening tool for both current and future ventricular dysfunction.”
From Deep Learning Applied to 12-Lead ECGs for Detection of Structural, Metabolic and Systemic Disease (2026) · cites this paper as [4]
AI-ECG can be positioned as a screening tool for both current and future ventricular dysfunction.
“Notably, patients with a positive AI-ECG despite a preserved ejection fraction were more likely to develop ventricular dysfunction during follow-up, suggesting that the model may be identifying subclinical disease rather than only established systolic dysfunction, positioning AI-ECG as a screening tool for both current and future ventricular dysfunction.”
From Deep Learning Applied to 12-Lead ECGs for Detection of Structural, Metabolic and Systemic Disease (2026) · cites this paper as [4]
AI systems may identify clinically relevant information that is not readily apparent through conventional interpretation or visual inspection by clinicians.
“As a result, AI systems may identify clinically relevant information that is not readily apparent through conventional interpretation or visual inspection by clinicians [4].”
From Deep Learning Applied to 12-Lead ECGs for Detection of Structural, Metabolic and Systemic Disease (2026) · cites this paper as [4]
A routine ECG carries information about cardiac structure that a human reader cannot extract from the same tracing.
“The more striking implication was that a routine ECG carries information about cardiac structure that a human reader cannot extract from the same tracing.”
From Deep Learning Applied to 12-Lead ECGs for Detection of Structural, Metabolic and Systemic Disease (2026) · cites this paper as [4]
Evidence from reduced-ejection-fraction models and the EAGLE trial suggests that AI-ECG screening can identify subclinical disease and influence diagnostic evaluation.
“Evidence from reduced-ejection-fraction models and the EAGLE trial suggests that this approach can identify subclinical disease and influence diagnostic evaluation [4,19].”
From Deep Learning Applied to 12-Lead ECGs for Detection of Structural, Metabolic and Systemic Disease (2026) · cites this paper as [4]
Previously, applications of artificial intelligence for electrocardiograms have shown potential to detect signatures of structural heart diseases.
“Previously applications of artificial intelligence for electrocardiograms (AI-ECG) have shown potential to detect signatures of SHDs.10-18”
From Ensemble Deep Learning Algorithm for Structural Heart Disease Screening Using Electrocardiographic Images (2025) · cites this paper as [10]
Prior studies have reported the use of deep learning on 12-lead ECGs to detect individual structural cardiovascular conditions, including LVSD, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, cardiac amyloidosis, and aortic stenosis.
“Prior studies have reported the use of deep learning on 12-lead ECGs to detect individual structural cardiovascular conditions, including LVSD,10,11,13 hypertrophic cardiomyopathy,16,32,33 cardiac amyloidosis,34,35 aortic stenosis,12 among others.15,35-37”
From Ensemble Deep Learning Algorithm for Structural Heart Disease Screening Using Electrocardiographic Images (2025) · cites this paper as [10]
The low prevalence of individual structural heart diseases limits the potential implementation of models for broad screening because of the low PPVs of the proposed models.
“While these models provide a strong foundation for the role of ECG-based detection of SHDs, the low prevalence of these individual diseases, their potential implementation for broad screening is limited by the low PPVs of the proposed models.10-12,16,32-34”
From Ensemble Deep Learning Algorithm for Structural Heart Disease Screening Using Electrocardiographic Images (2025) · cites this paper as [10]
A key challenge of AI-ECG models in detecting specific cardiac disorders using ECGs is low precision driven by the low prevalence of individual disorders.
“A key challenge of AI-ECG models in detecting specific cardiac disorders using ECGs is the low precision driven by the low prevalence of individual disorders.10-12”
From Ensemble Deep Learning Algorithm for Structural Heart Disease Screening Using Electrocardiographic Images (2025) · cites this paper as [10]
LVEF < 40% is a threshold present in most heart failure diagnosis guidelines and consistent with prior work.
“The cutoff for low LVEF was set as LVEF < 40%, a threshold present in most heart failure diagnosis guidelines4, and consistent with prior work in this space8,22.”
From Detection of left ventricular systolic dysfunction from single-lead electrocardiography adapted for portable and wearable devices (2023) · cites this paper as [8]
Artificial intelligence can detect LVSD from ECGs.
“Artificial intelligence (AI) can detect left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) from electrocardiograms (ECGs)”
From Detection of left ventricular systolic dysfunction from single-lead electrocardiography adapted for portable and wearable devices (2023) · cites this paper as [8]
LVEF below 40% is a threshold present in most heart failure diagnosis guidelines.
“Both models were trained to detect LVEF below 40%, a threshold present in most heart failure diagnosis guidelines4, and consistent with prior work8,22.”
From Detection of left ventricular systolic dysfunction from single-lead electrocardiography adapted for portable and wearable devices (2023) · cites this paper as [8]
A convolutional neural network developed with 12-lead ECGs classified ventricular dysfunction with good accuracy.
“In another study, a convolutional neural network developed with a training dataset of 35,970, 12-lead ECGs and validated in an independent dataset of 52,870 ECGs classified ventricular dysfunction with good accuracy60.”
From Smart wearable devices in cardiovascular care: Where we are and how to move forward (2021) · cites this paper as [60]
Attia et al. used 1-lead ECGs from an AW coupled with an AI algorithm to detect patients with left ventricular dysfunction with an area under the curve of 0.885.
“Attia et al. used 1-lead ECGs from an AW coupled with an AI algorithm to detect patients with left ventricular dysfunction with an area under the curve of 0.885.16”
From Unlocking Tomorrow’s Health Care: Expanding the Clinical Scope of Wearables by Applying Artificial Intelligence (2024) · cites this paper as [16]
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How will machine learning inform the clinical care of atrial fibrillation?
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“12,14,16,37,38 By contrast, composite SHD screening and rarer-disease applications such as cardiac amyloidosis remain at an earlier stage, with the literature still dominated by model development, retrospective validation, and limited prospective implementation evidence.”
Deep Learning Applied to 12-Lead ECGs for Detection of Structural, Metabolic and Systemic Disease
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- Authors
- Attia, Z. I., Kapa, S., Lopez-Jimenez, F., McKie, P. M., Ladewig, D. J., Satam, G., Pellikka, P. A., Enriquez-Sarano, M., Noseworthy, P. A., Munger, T. M., Asirvatham, S. J., Scott, C. G., Carter, R. E., & Friedman, P. A.
- Affiliations
- Mayo Clinic (US)
- Corresponding author
- Friedman, Paul A.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Medicine
- Published
- 2019-01
- Volume
- 25
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 70-74
- ISSN
- 1078-8956 (ISSN-L)
- 1546-170X
- OpenAlex
- W2901226889
- Cited by
- 1,389
- References
- 42
- Citations by year
- 2026: 245 · 2025: 244 · 2024: 225 · 2023: 196 · 2022: 158 · 2021: 146 · 2020: 124 · 2019: 47 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 54.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Mayo Clinic
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › ECG Monitoring and Analysis
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Health Informatics › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare and Education
- Keywords
- asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction, cardiac contractile dysfunction, electrocardiogram, artificial intelligence, convolutional neural networks, left ventricular ejection fraction, deep learning, cardiovascular screening, risk stratification, echocardiography
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Artificial Intelligence, Electrocardiography, Female, Heart, Humans, Male, Mass Screening, Middle Aged, Myocardial Contraction, ROC Curve, Sensitivity and Specificity, Stroke Volume, Neural Networks, Computer
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