Cited by 1,015Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and LipoproteinsDiabetes Treatment and ManagementDiabetes Management and Research

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 69 of the 72 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 32 of the 49 sources its claims cite were checked for support.

Worldwide trends in diabetes prevalence and treatment from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 1108 population-representative studies with 141 million participants

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Diabetes can be detected at the primary health-care level, and effective treatments lower the risk of complications. There are insufficient data on the coverage of treatment for diabetes and how it has changed. We estimated trends from 1990 to 2022 in diabetes prevalence and treatment for 200 countries and territories. METHODS: of 6·5% or higher, or taking medication for diabetes. We defined diabetes treatment as the proportion of people with diabetes who were taking medication for diabetes. We analysed the data in a Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression model to estimate diabetes prevalence and treatment. FINDINGS: In 2022, an estimated 828 million (95% credible interval [CrI] 757-908) adults (those aged 18 years and older) had diabetes, an increase of 630 million (554-713) from 1990. From 1990 to 2022, the age-standardised prevalence of diabetes increased in 131 countries for women and in 155 countries for men with a posterior probability of more than 0·80. The largest increases were in low-income and middle-income countries in southeast Asia (eg, Malaysia), south Asia (eg, Pakistan), the Middle East and north Africa (eg, Egypt), and Latin America and the Caribbean (eg, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, and Costa Rica). Age-standardised prevalence neither increased nor decreased with a posterior probability of more than 0·80 in some countries in western and central Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia and the Pacific, Canada, and some Pacific island nations where prevalence was already high in 1990; it decreased with a posterior probability of more than 0·80 in women in Japan, Spain, and France, and in men in Nauru. The lowest prevalence in the world in 2022 was in western Europe and east Africa for both sexes, and in Japan and Canada for women, and the highest prevalence in the world in 2022 was in countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, some countries in the Caribbean and the Middle East and north Africa, as well as Pakistan and Malaysia. In 2022, 445 million (95% CrI 401-496) adults aged 30 years or older with diabetes did not receive treatment (59% of adults aged 30 years or older with diabetes), 3·5 times the number in 1990. From 1990 to 2022, diabetes treatment coverage increased in 118 countries for women and 98 countries for men with a posterior probability of more than 0·80. The largest improvement in treatment coverage was in some countries from central and western Europe and Latin America (Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and Costa Rica), Canada, South Korea, Russia, Seychelles, and Jordan. There was no increase in treatment coverage in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa; the Caribbean; Pacific island nations; and south, southeast, and central Asia. In 2022, age-standardised treatment coverage was lowest in countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, and treatment coverage was less than 10% in some African countries. Treatment coverage was 55% or higher in South Korea, many high-income western countries, and some countries in central and eastern Europe (eg, Poland, Czechia, and Russia), Latin America (eg, Costa Rica, Chile, and Mexico), and the Middle East and north Africa (eg, Jordan, Qatar, and Kuwait). INTERPRETATION: In most countries, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, diabetes treatment has not increased at all or has not increased sufficiently in comparison with the rise in prevalence. The burden of diabetes and untreated diabetes is increasingly borne by low-income and middle-income countries. The expansion of health insurance and primary health care should be accompanied with diabetes programmes that realign and resource health services to enhance the early detection and effective treatment of diabetes. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

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This pooled analysis of 1108 population-representative studies estimates that in 2022, 828 million adults had diabetes and 445 million adults aged 30 years or older with diabetes were untreated. Although diabetes prevalence rose in many low-income and middle-income countries, treatment coverage increased mainly in high-income and some middle-income countries, widening global inequities.

Key findings

  • In 2022, an estimated 828 million (95% CrI 757–908) adults aged 18 years or older had diabetes, an increase of 630 million (554–713) from 1990; 420 million (372–473) were women and 408 million (356–467) were men. India (212 million, 175–250) and China (148 million, 103–202) had the largest numbers.
  • Age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 1990 to 2022 in 131 countries for women and 155 countries for men with posterior probability >0·80; the largest increases were 15–22 percentage points in countries from southeast Asia, south Asia, the Middle East and north Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Prevalence decreased with posterior probability >0·80 in women in Japan, Spain, and France, and in men in Nauru by 7 percentage points.
  • In 2022, 445 million (95% CrI 401–496) adults aged 30 years or older with diabetes did not receive treatment (59% of adults aged 30 years or older with diabetes), 3·5 times the number in 1990 (129 million, 112–147). 30% of untreated diabetes cases (133 million, 109–160) were in India, followed by China (78 million, 51–112).
  • Treatment coverage increased from 1990 to 2022 in 118 countries for women and 98 countries for men with posterior probability >0·80; largest improvements were 25–37 percentage points in countries including Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Costa Rica, Brazil, the Netherlands, Finland, Croatia, Canada, South Korea, Russia, Seychelles, and Jordan. In 2022, treatment coverage was 5–10% in a few sub-Saharan African countries and 55% or higher in South Korea, many high-income western countries, and some countries in central and eastern Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East and north Africa; the highest was 86% (74–95) for women and 77% (60–89) for men in Belgium.

Methods

  • Pooled analysis of 1108 population-representative studies with 141 million participants aged 18 years or older, conducted from 1980 to 2022, with measurements of fasting glucose and/or HbA1c and information on diabetes treatment; 833 (75%) studies had treatment data.
  • Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥7·0 mmol/L, HbA1c ≥6·5%, or taking medication for diabetes; treatment was defined as the proportion of people with diabetes taking oral hypoglycaemic drugs or insulin. Prevalence was estimated for women and men aged 18 years or older, and treatment for those aged 30 years or older.
  • A Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression model estimated trends by sex, age, country, and year for 200 countries and territories; estimates were age-standardised to the WHO standard population, and posterior probabilities were used to identify probable increases or decreases. The change in untreated diabetes was decomposed into contributions from population size and age structure, prevalence, and treatment coverage.

Limitations

  • The paper states that some countries had fewer data and 25 had no data, so estimates for those countries were informed more strongly by data from other countries through geographical hierarchy, increasing uncertainty; survey participation rates vary and can be low, especially in Europe; unobserved differences in assays and measurement methods might persist; 2-h postprandial glucose was not included, so true prevalence could be higher; HbA1c can be affected by anaemia, haemoglobin variants, and other non-glycaemic factors; isolated elevated HbA1c or FPG was predicted in studies missing one marker; type 1 and type 2 diabetes were not separated in adults; most surveys used a single visit rather than a confirmatory test; COVID-19 might have affected surveys and outcomes; treatment details such as insulin and specific medicines were insufficiently collected; and children and adolescents were not included.
  • Evident from the text: treatment coverage is estimated only for adults aged 30 years or older, not all adults with diabetes, and is based on current medication use rather than adherence, clinical control, or medicine type.

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Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)02317-1

Cites

69 of 72 references verified3 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Figures

Figure 1 Age-standardised diabetes prevalence from 1990 to 2022 by country, for women and men aged 18 years or older The shaded areas around the lines show the 95% credible intervals of the estimates. Countries are labelled using their International Organization for Standardization 3166–1 α-3 codes. The numbers in brackets after each country’s label show the total number of data sources and the number of nationally representative data sources, respectively. See the appendix (pp 90–91) for the results for both sexes combined. AFG=Afghanistan. AGO=Angola. ALB=Albania. AND=Andorra. ARE=United Arab Emirates. ARG=Argentina. ARM=Armenia. ASM=American Samoa. ATG=Antigua and Barbuda. AUS=Australia. AUT=Austria. AZE=Azerbaijan. BDI=Burundi. BEL=Belgium. BEN=Benin. BFA=Burkina Faso. BGD=Bangladesh. BGR=Bulgaria. BHR=Bahrain. BHS=The Bahamas. BIH=Bosnia and Herzegovina. BLR=Belarus. BLZ=Belize. BMU=Bermuda. BOL=Bolivia. BRA=Brazil. BRB=Barbados. BRN=Brunei. BTN=Bhutan. BWA=Botswana. CAF=Central African Republic. CAN=Canada. CHE=Switzerland. CHL=Chile. CHN=China. CIV=Côte d’Ivoire. CMR=Cameroon. COD=DR Congo. COG=Congo (Brazzaville). COK=Cook Islands. COL=Colombia. COM=Comoros. CPV=Cabo Verde. CRI=Costa Rica. CUB=Cuba. CYP=Cyprus. CZE=Czechia. DEU=Germany. DJI=Djibouti. DMA=Dominica. DNK=Denmark. DOM=Dominican Republic. DZA=Algeria. ECU=Ecuador. EGY=Egypt. ERI=Eritrea. ESP=Spain. EST=Estonia. ETH=Ethiopia. FIN=Finland. FJI=Fiji. FRA=France. FSM=Federated States of Micronesia. GAB=Gabon. GBR=UK. GEO=Georgia. GHA=Ghana. GIN=Guinea. GMB=The Gambia. GNB=Guinea-Bissau. GNQ=Equatorial Guinea. GRC=Greece. GRD=Grenada. GRL=Greenland. GTM=Guatemala. GUY=Guyana. HND=Honduras. HRV=Croatia. HTI=Haiti. HUN=Hungary. IDN=Indonesia. IND=India. IRL=Ireland. IRN=Iran. IRQ=Iraq. ISL=Iceland. ISR=Israel. ITA=Italy. JAM=Jamaica. JOR=Jordan. JPN=Japan. KAZ=Kazakhstan. KEN=Kenya. KGZ=Kyrgyzstan. KHM=Cambodia. KIR=Kiribati. KNA=Saint Kitts and Nevis. KOR=South Korea. KWT=Kuwait. LAO=Laos. LBN=Lebanon. LBR=Liberia. LBY=Libya. LCA=Saint Lucia. LKA=Sri Lanka. LSO=Lesotho. LTU=Lithuania. LUX=Luxembourg. LVA=Latvia. MAR=Morocco. MDA=Moldova. MDG=Madagascar. MDV=Maldives. MEX=Mexico. MHL=Marshall Islands. MKD=North Macedonia. MLI=Mali. MLT=Malta. MMR=Myanmar. MNE=Montenegro. MNG=Mongolia. MOZ=Mozambique. MRT=Mauritania. MUS=Mauritius. MWI=Malawi. MYS=Malaysia. NAM=Namibia. NER=Niger. NGA=Nigeria. NIC=Nicaragua. NIU=Niue. NLD=Netherlands. NOR=Norway. NPL=Nepal. NRU=Nauru. NZL=New Zealand. OMN=Oman. PAK=Pakistan. PAN=Panama. PER=Peru. PHL=Philippines. PLW=Palau. PNG=Papua New Guinea. POL=Poland. PRI=Puerto Rico. PRK=North Korea. PRT=Portugal. PRY=Paraguay. PSE=Palestine. PYF=French Polynesia. QAT=Qatar. ROU=Romania. RUS=Russia. RWA=Rwanda. SAU=Saudi Arabia. SDN=Sudan. SEN=Senegal. SGP=Singapore. SLB=Solomon Islands. SLE=Sierra Leone. SLV=El Salvador. SOM=Somalia. SRB=Serbia. SSD=South Sudan. STP=São Tomé and Príncipe. SUR=Suriname. SVK=Slovakia. SVN=Slovenia. SWE=Sweden. SWZ=Eswatini. SYC=Seychelles. SYR=Syria. TCD=Chad. TGO=Togo. THA=Thailand. TJK=Tajikistan. TKL=Tokelau. TKM=Turkmenistan. TLS=Timor-Leste. TON=Tonga. TTO=Trinidad and Tobago. TUN=Tunisia. TUR=Türkiye. TUV=Tuvalu. TWN=Taiwan. TZA=Tanzania. UGA=Uganda. UKR=Ukraine. URY=Uruguay. USA=USA. UZB=Uzbekistan. VCT=Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. VEN=Venezuela. VNM=Viet Nam. VUT=Vanuatu. WSM=Samoa. YEM=Yemen. ZAF=South Africa. ZMB=Zambia. ZWE=Zimbabwe.
Figure 1 Age-standardised diabetes prevalence from 1990 to 2022 by country, for women and men aged 18 years or older The shaded areas around the lines show the 95% credible intervals of the estimates. Countries are labelled using their International Organization for Standardization 3166–1 α-3 codes. The numbers in brackets after each country’s label show the total number of data sources and the number of nationally representative data sources, respectively. See the appendix (pp 90–91) for the results for both sexes combined. AFG=Afghanistan. AGO=Angola. ALB=Albania. AND=Andorra. ARE=United Arab Emirates. ARG=Argentina. ARM=Armenia. ASM=American Samoa. ATG=Antigua and Barbuda. AUS=Australia. AUT=Austria. AZE=Azerbaijan. BDI=Burundi. BEL=Belgium. BEN=Benin. BFA=Burkina Faso. BGD=Bangladesh. BGR=Bulgaria. BHR=Bahrain. BHS=The Bahamas. BIH=Bosnia and Herzegovina. BLR=Belarus. BLZ=Belize. BMU=Bermuda. BOL=Bolivia. BRA=Brazil. BRB=Barbados. BRN=Brunei. BTN=Bhutan. BWA=Botswana. CAF=Central African Republic. CAN=Canada. CHE=Switzerland. CHL=Chile. CHN=China. CIV=Côte d’Ivoire. CMR=Cameroon. COD=DR Congo. COG=Congo (Brazzaville). COK=Cook Islands. COL=Colombia. COM=Comoros. CPV=Cabo Verde. CRI=Costa Rica. CUB=Cuba. CYP=Cyprus. CZE=Czechia. DEU=Germany. DJI=Djibouti. DMA=Dominica. DNK=Denmark. DOM=Dominican Republic. DZA=Algeria. ECU=Ecuador. EGY=Egypt. ERI=Eritrea. ESP=Spain. EST=Estonia. ETH=Ethiopia. FIN=Finland. FJI=Fiji. FRA=France. FSM=Federated States of Micronesia. GAB=Gabon. GBR=UK. GEO=Georgia. GHA=Ghana. GIN=Guinea. GMB=The Gambia. GNB=Guinea-Bissau. GNQ=Equatorial Guinea. GRC=Greece. GRD=Grenada. GRL=Greenland. GTM=Guatemala. GUY=Guyana. HND=Honduras. HRV=Croatia. HTI=Haiti. HUN=Hungary. IDN=Indonesia. IND=India. IRL=Ireland. IRN=Iran. IRQ=Iraq. ISL=Iceland. ISR=Israel. ITA=Italy. JAM=Jamaica. JOR=Jordan. JPN=Japan. KAZ=Kazakhstan. KEN=Kenya. KGZ=Kyrgyzstan. KHM=Cambodia. KIR=Kiribati. KNA=Saint Kitts and Nevis. KOR=South Korea. KWT=Kuwait. LAO=Laos. LBN=Lebanon. LBR=Liberia. LBY=Libya. LCA=Saint Lucia. LKA=Sri Lanka. LSO=Lesotho. LTU=Lithuania. LUX=Luxembourg. LVA=Latvia. MAR=Morocco. MDA=Moldova. MDG=Madagascar. MDV=Maldives. MEX=Mexico. MHL=Marshall Islands. MKD=North Macedonia. MLI=Mali. MLT=Malta. MMR=Myanmar. MNE=Montenegro. MNG=Mongolia. MOZ=Mozambique. MRT=Mauritania. MUS=Mauritius. MWI=Malawi. MYS=Malaysia. NAM=Namibia. NER=Niger. NGA=Nigeria. NIC=Nicaragua. NIU=Niue. NLD=Netherlands. NOR=Norway. NPL=Nepal. NRU=Nauru. NZL=New Zealand. OMN=Oman. PAK=Pakistan. PAN=Panama. PER=Peru. PHL=Philippines. PLW=Palau. PNG=Papua New Guinea. POL=Poland. PRI=Puerto Rico. PRK=North Korea. PRT=Portugal. PRY=Paraguay. PSE=Palestine. PYF=French Polynesia. QAT=Qatar. ROU=Romania. RUS=Russia. RWA=Rwanda. SAU=Saudi Arabia. SDN=Sudan. SEN=Senegal. SGP=Singapore. SLB=Solomon Islands. SLE=Sierra Leone. SLV=El Salvador. SOM=Somalia. SRB=Serbia. SSD=South Sudan. STP=São Tomé and Príncipe. SUR=Suriname. SVK=Slovakia. SVN=Slovenia. SWE=Sweden. SWZ=Eswatini. SYC=Seychelles. SYR=Syria. TCD=Chad. TGO=Togo. THA=Thailand. TJK=Tajikistan. TKL=Tokelau. TKM=Turkmenistan. TLS=Timor-Leste. TON=Tonga. TTO=Trinidad and Tobago. TUN=Tunisia. TUR=Türkiye. TUV=Tuvalu. TWN=Taiwan. TZA=Tanzania. UGA=Uganda. UKR=Ukraine. URY=Uruguay. USA=USA. UZB=Uzbekistan. VCT=Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. VEN=Venezuela. VNM=Viet Nam. VUT=Vanuatu. WSM=Samoa. YEM=Yemen. ZAF=South Africa. ZMB=Zambia. ZWE=Zimbabwe.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 2 Age-standardised diabetes prevalence and treatment coverage in 2022 and change from 1990 to 2022 (A) Age-standardised diabetes prevalence in people aged 18 years or older. (B) Age-standardised treatment coverage in people aged 30 years or older. The density plot alongside each map shows the smoothed distribution of estimates across countries. The appendix (pp 78–81) shows the posterior probability of an estimated increase or decrease being a true increase or decrease. The appendix (pp 92–93) also shows the results for both sexes combined.
Figure 2 Age-standardised diabetes prevalence and treatment coverage in 2022 and change from 1990 to 2022 (A) Age-standardised diabetes prevalence in people aged 18 years or older. (B) Age-standardised treatment coverage in people aged 30 years or older. The density plot alongside each map shows the smoothed distribution of estimates across countries. The appendix (pp 78–81) shows the posterior probability of an estimated increase or decrease being a true increase or decrease. The appendix (pp 92–93) also shows the results for both sexes combined.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 3 Number of people with (A) diabetes and (B) untreated diabetes in 2022 The number of people with diabetes is for people aged 18 years or older; the number of people with diabetes covering only those aged 30 years or older is shown in the appendix (p 70). The number of people with untreated diabetes is for people aged 30 years or older. The area of the circle is proportional to the number of people with diabetes or untreated diabetes in each country. Countries listed were the top 20 countries in 2022 in terms of number of people with diabetes or untreated diabetes, with their rankings shown by the numbers before their names. The numbers in brackets after each country name show the number of people with diabetes or untreated diabetes in that country, and its percentage of the global number (828 million for diabetes and 445 million for untreated diabetes).
Figure 3 Number of people with (A) diabetes and (B) untreated diabetes in 2022 The number of people with diabetes is for people aged 18 years or older; the number of people with diabetes covering only those aged 30 years or older is shown in the appendix (p 70). The number of people with untreated diabetes is for people aged 30 years or older. The area of the circle is proportional to the number of people with diabetes or untreated diabetes in each country. Countries listed were the top 20 countries in 2022 in terms of number of people with diabetes or untreated diabetes, with their rankings shown by the numbers before their names. The numbers in brackets after each country name show the number of people with diabetes or untreated diabetes in that country, and its percentage of the global number (828 million for diabetes and 445 million for untreated diabetes).CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 4 Age-standardised treatment coverage for women and men aged 30 years or older in 1990 and 2022 Each line represents a country, with countries coloured by the super-region in which they fall. The black triangle shows the age-standardised treatment coverage for the world. The appendix (p 69) shows the countries in each super-region. The appendix (pp 94–95) also shows the results for both sexes combined.
Figure 4 Age-standardised treatment coverage for women and men aged 30 years or older in 1990 and 2022 Each line represents a country, with countries coloured by the super-region in which they fall. The black triangle shows the age-standardised treatment coverage for the world. The appendix (p 69) shows the countries in each super-region. The appendix (pp 94–95) also shows the results for both sexes combined.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 5 Contributions of population growth and ageing, rise in diabetes prevalence, and improvement in treatment coverage to the change in the number of people with untreated diabetes from 1990 to 2022 The sum of all sections in each graph is the total number of people with untreated diabetes over time, also shown by the solid black line. The area above the solid black line and top of stacked sections, where it is present, equals the contribution of improvement in treatment (ie, the purple section) towards reducing the number of people with untreated diabetes—namely, the top of the stacked sections shows how many people would have had untreated diabetes had treatment coverage not improved. The appendix (p 69) describes the countries in each super-region.
Figure 5 Contributions of population growth and ageing, rise in diabetes prevalence, and improvement in treatment coverage to the change in the number of people with untreated diabetes from 1990 to 2022 The sum of all sections in each graph is the total number of people with untreated diabetes over time, also shown by the solid black line. The area above the solid black line and top of stacked sections, where it is present, equals the contribution of improvement in treatment (ie, the purple section) towards reducing the number of people with untreated diabetes—namely, the top of the stacked sections shows how many people would have had untreated diabetes had treatment coverage not improved. The appendix (p 69) describes the countries in each super-region.CC BY · PubMed Central

Verification

Claims the paper makes

10 Own result · 9 Partly supported · 7 Own method · 7 Own interpretation · 2 Supported · 1 Couldn’t confirm · 1 No full text of the sources · accuracy not yet measured

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  • It may state two separate claims as one. 19
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 11
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  • The paper relies on this without support.

    High-risk prevention using diet, lifestyle modification and medicines is less widely used in low-resourced health systems with limited attention to, or resources for, diabetes screening.

    “This approach is less widely used in low-resourced health systems with limited attention to, or resources for, diabetes screening.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Health survey participation rates vary across countries, can change over time, and have become particularly low in Europe.

    “Health survey participation rate varies across countries and can change over time, and has become particularly low in Europe.”
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Citations

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Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. 2017, SEMDSA 2017 guidelines for the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus, J Endocrinol Metab Diabetes South Africa, 22, S1
  2. 2021, Guideline for the prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus in China (2020 edition), Zhonghua Neifenmi Daixie Zazhi, 37, 311

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Metadata

Authors
Zhou, B., Rayner, A. W., Gregg, E. W., Sheffer, K. E., Carrillo-Larco, R. M., Bennett, J. E., Shaw, J. E., Paciorek, C. J., Singleton, R. K., Barradas Pires, A., Stevens, G. A., Danaei, G., Lhoste, V. P., Phelps, N. H., Heap, R. A., Jain, L., D'Ailhaud De Brisis, Y., Galeazzi, A., Kengne, A. P., Mishra, A., Ikeda, N., Lin, H.-H., Aguilar-Salinas, C. A., Anjana, R. M., Ben Romdhane, H., Davletov, K., Ganapathy, S., Heidemann, C., Khader, Y. S., Khang, Y.-H., Laxmaiah, A., Mbanya, J. C. N., Mohan, V., Narayan, K. V., Pavkov, M. E., Sobngwi, E., Wade, A. N., Younger-Coleman, N. O., Zdrojewski, T., Abarca-Gómez, L., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., Abdul Rahim, H. F., Abu-Rmeileh, N. M., Adambekov, S., Adams, R. J., Aekplakorn, W., Afzal, S., Agdeppa, I. A., Aghazadeh-Attari, J., Agyemang, C., Ahmad, N. A., Ahmadi, A., Ahmadi, N., Ahmadi, N., Ahmed, S. H., Ahrens, W., Ajlouni, K., Al-Hamli, S. F., Al-Hinai, H., Al-Lawati, J. A., Al Asfoor, D., Alarouj, M., AlBuhairan, F., AlDhukair, S., Ali, M. M., Ali, M. K., Alieva, A. V., Alinezhad, F., Alkandari, A., Alkerwi, A., Aly, E., Amarapurkar, D. N., Andersen, L. B., Anderssen, S. A., Andrade, D. S., Ansari-Moghaddam, A., Aounallah-Skhiri, H., Araújo, J., Aris, T., Arku, R. E., Arlappa, N., Aryal, K. K., Aspelund, T., Assah, F. K., Assembekov, B., Au Yeung, S. L., Auvinen, J., Avdičová, M., Azad, K., Azevedo, A., Azimi-Nezhad, M., Azizi, F., Bacopoulou, F., Balakrishna, N., Balanova, Y., Bamoshmoosh, M., Banach, M., Bandosz, P., Banegas, J. R., Barbagallo, C. M., Barcelo, A., Baretić, M., Barrera, L., Barreto, M., Basit, A., Batieha, A. M., Batista, A. P., Baur, L. A., Belavendra, A., Benedek, T., Benet, M., Benzeval, M., Berkinbayev, S., Bernabe-Ortiz, A., Berrios Carrasola, X., Bettiol, H., Beybey, A. F., Bhargava, S. K., Bi, Y., Bika Lele, E. C., Bikbov, M. M., Bista, B., Bjerregaard, P., Bjertness, E., Bjertness, M. B., Björkelund, C., Bloch, K. V., Blokstra, A., Bobak, M., Boehm, B. O., Boggia, J. G., Boissonnet, C. P., Bojesen, S. E., Bonaccio, M., Bonilla-Vargas, A., Borghs, H., Botomba, S., Bovet, P., Brajkovich, I., Brenner, H., Brewster, L. M., Brian, G. R., Briceño, Y., Brito, M., Bueno, G., Bugge, A., Buntinx, F., Cabrera de León, A., Caixeta, R. B., Can, G., Cândido, A. P. C., Capanzana, M. V., Čapková, N., Capuano, E., Capuano, R., Capuano, V., Cardoso, V. C., Carlsson, A. C., Casanueva, F. F., Censi, L., Cervantes–Loaiza, M., Chadjigeorgiou, C. A., Chamnan, P., Chamukuttan, S., Chan, Q., Charchar, F. J., Chaturvedi, N., Chen, C.-J., Chen, H., Chen, L.-S., Cheng, C.-Y., Cheraghian, B., Chetrit, A., Chiou, S.-T., Chirlaque, M.-D., Chudek, J., Cifkova, R., Cirillo, M., Claessens, F., Clarke, J., Cohen, E., Concin, H., Cooper, C., Cosmin, C. R., Costanzo, S., Cowan, M. J., Cowell, C., Crampin, A. C., Crujeiras, A. B., Cruz, J. J., Cureau, F. V., Cuschieri, S., D'Arrigo, G., d'Orsi, E., da Silva-Ferreira, H., Dallongeville, J., Damasceno, A., Dankner, R., Dastgiri, S., Dauchet, L., De Curtis, A., de Gaetano, G., De Henauw, S., De Ridder, D., Deepa, M., DeGennaro, V. J., Demarest, S., Dennison, E., Deschamps, V., Dhimal, M., Dika, Z., Djalalinia, S., Donfrancesco, C., Dorobantu, M., Dragano, N., Drygas, W., Du, S., Du, Y., Duante, C. A., Duboz, P., Duda, R. B., Dushpanova, A., Dzerve, V., Dziankowska-Zaborszczyk, E., Ebrahimi, N., Eddie, R., Eftekhar, E., Efthymiou, V., Egbagbe, E. E., Eggertsen, R., Eghtesad, S., Ejembi, C. L., El-Khateeb, M., El Ati, J., Eldemire-Shearer, D., Elosua, R., Enang, O., Erasmus, R. T., Erem, C., Ergor, G., Eriksen, L., Eriksson, J. G., Esmaeili, A., Evans, R. G., Fagherazzi, G., Fahimfar, N., Fakhradiyev, I., Fakhretdinova, A. A., Fall, C. H., Faramarzi, E., Farjam, M., Farzadfar, F., Farzi, Y., Fattahi, M. R., Fawwad, A., Felix-Redondo, F. J., Ferguson, T. S., Fernández-Bergés, D., Fernando, D. R., Ferrao, T., Ferrari, M., Ferrario, M. M., Ferreccio, C., Ferrer, E., Feskens, E. J., Fink, G., Flood, D., Forsner, M., Fosse-Edorh, S., Fottrell, E. F., Fouad, H. M., Francis, D. K., Frontera, G., Fujiati, I. I., Fumihiko, M., Furusawa, T., Gaciong, Z., Galvano, F., Garnett, S. P., Gaspoz, J.-M., Gasull, M., Gazzinelli, A., Gehring, U., Ghaderi, E., Ghamari, S.-H., Ghanbari, A., Ghasemi, E., Gheorghe-Fronea, O.-F., Ghimire, A., Gialluisi, A., Giampaoli, S., Gianfagna, F., Gill, T. K., Giovannelli, J., Gironella, G., Giwercman, A., Goldberg, M., Goltzman, D., Gomula, A., Gonçalves, H., Gonçalves, M., Gonzalez-Chica, D. A., Gonzalez-Gross, M., González-Rivas, J. P., Gonzalez, A. R., Goto, A., Gottrand, F., Grafnetter, D., Grammatikopoulou, M. G., Grant, A., Grimsgaard, A. S., Grodzicki, T., Grøntved, A., Grosso, G., Gu, D., Gudnason, V., Guerrero, R., Guessous, I., Gujral, U. P., Gupta, R., Gutierrez, L., Gwee, X., Ha, S., Haghshenas, R., Hakimi, H., Hambleton, I. R., Hamzeh, B., Hange, D., Hantunen, S., Hao, J., Harooni, J., Hashemi-Shahri, S. M., Hata, J., Hayes, A. J., He, J., Henrique, R. D. S., Henriques, A., Herrala, S., Herzig, K.-H., Heshmat, R., Hill, A. G., Ho, S. Y., Holdsworth, M., Homayounfar, R., Hopman, W. M., Horimoto, A. R., Hormiga, C., Horta, B. L., Houti, L., Howitt, C., Htay, T. T., Htet, A. S., Htike, M. M. T., Huerta, J. M., Huhtaniemi, I. T., Huiart, L., Huisman, M., Hunsberger, M., Husseini, A., Huybrechts, I., Iacoviello, L., Iakupova, E. M., Iannone, A. G., Ibrahim Wong, N., Ijoma, C., Irazola, V. E., Ishida, T., Islam, S. M. S., Islek, D., Ittermann, T., Iwasaki, M., Jääskeläinen, T., Jacobs, J. M., Jaddou, H. Y., Jadoul, M., Jallow, B., James, K., Jamil, K. M., Janus, E., Jarvelin, M.-R., Jasienska, G., Jelaković, A., Jelaković, B., Jennings, G., Jha, A. K., Jibo, A., Jimenez, R. O., Jöckel, K.-H., Jokelainen, J. J., Jonas, J. 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S., Laurenzi, M., Le Coroller, G., Lee, J., Lehtimäki, T., Lemogoum, D., Leung, G. M., Lim, C., Lim, W.-Y., Lima-Costa, M. F., Lin, Y.-J., Lind, L., Lissner, L., Liu, L., Liu, X., Lo, W.-C., Loit, H.-M., Lopez-Garcia, E., Lopez, T., Lozano, J. E., Luksiene, D., Lundqvist, A., Lunet, N., Lung, T., Lustigová, M., Ma, G., Machado-Coelho, G. L., Machado-Rodrigues, A. M., Macia, E., Macieira, L. M., Madar, A. A., Maestre, G. E., Maggi, S., Magliano, D. J., Magriplis, E., Mahasampath, G., Maire, B., Makdisse, M., Makrilakis, K., Malekpour, M.-R., Malekzadeh, F., Malekzadeh, R., Malyutina, S., Maniego, L. V., Manios, Y., Mansour-Ghanaei, F., Manzato, E., Mapatano, M. A., Marcil, A., Mardones, F., Margozzini, P., Marques-Vidal, P., Marques, L. P., Martorell, R., Mascarenhas, L. P., Masimango Imani, M., Masinaei, M., Masoodi, S. R., Mathiesen, E. B., Mathur, P., Matsha, T. E., Mc Donald Posso, A. J., McFarlane, S. R., McGarvey, S. T., McLean, S. B., McNulty, B. A., Mediene Benchekor, S., Mehlig, K., Mehrparvar, A. H., Melgarejo, J. D., Méndez, F., Menezes, A. M. B., Mereke, A., Meshram, I. I., Meto, D. T., Michels, N., Minderico, C. S., Mini, G., Miquel, J. F., Miranda, J. J., Mirjalili, M. R., Mirkopoulou, D., Modesti, P. A., Moghaddam, S. S., Mohammad, K., Mohammadi, M. R., Mohammadi, Z., Mohammadifard, N., Mohammadpourhodki, R., Mohd Yusoff, M. F., Mohebbi, I., Møller, N. C., Molnár, D., Momenan, A., Montenegro Mendoza, R. A., Moosazadeh, M., Moradpour, F., Morejon, A., Moreno, L. A., Morgan, K., Morin, S. N., Moschonis, G., Moslem, A., Mosquera, M., Mossakowska, M., Mostafa, A., Mostafavi, S.-A., Mota, E., Mota, J., Mota, M., Motlagh, M. E., Motta, J., Msyamboza, K. P., Mu, T. T., Muiesan, M. L., Munroe, P. B., Mursu, J., Musa, K. I., Mustafa, N., Muyer, M. T. M., Nabipour, I., Nagel, G., Naidu, B. M., Najafi, F., Námešná, J., Nang, E. E. K., Nangia, V. B., Naseri, T., Navarro-Ramírez, A. 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M., Porta, M., Poudyal, A., Pourfarzi, F., Pourshams, A., Poustchi, H., Prabhakaran, D., Pradeepa, R., Price, A. J., Price, J. F., Providencia, R., Puder, J. J., Puhakka, S., Punab, M., Qiao, Q., Qorbani, M., Quintana, H. K., Quoc Bao, T., Radisauskas, R., Rahimikazerooni, S., Raitakari, O., Ramachandran, A., Ramirez-Zea, M., Ramke, J., Ramos, E., Ramos, R., Rampal, L., Rampal, S., Ramsay, S. E., Rangel Reina, D. A., Rannan-Eliya, R. P., Rashidi, M.-M., Redon, J., Renner, J. D., Reuter, C. P., Revilla, L., Rezaei, N., Rezaianzadeh, A., Rho, Y., Rigo, F., Riley, L. M., Risérus, U., Roa, R. G., Robinson, L., Rodríguez-Anderson, W. E., Rodríguez-Artalejo, F., Rodriguez-Perez, M. D. C., Rodríguez-Villamizar, L. A., Rodríguez, A. Y., Roggenbuck, U., Rohloff, P., Rojas-Martinez, R., Romeo, E. L., Rosengren, A., Roy, J. G., Rubinstein, A., Ruiz-Castell, M., Russo, P., Rust, P., Rutkowski, M., Sabanayagam, C., Sabbaghi, H., Sachdev, H. S., Sadjadi, A., Safarpour, A. 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Affiliations
  • Center for Excellence in Molecular Cell Science (CN)
  • Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
  • Imperial College London (GB)
  • Hôpital Paul-Brousse (FR)
Corresponding author
Ezzati, Majid
ORCID
Venue
The Lancet
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2024-11
Volume
404
Issue
10467
Pages
2077-2093
ISSN
  • 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
  • 0140-6736
OpenAlex
W4404311881
Cited by
1,013
References
70
Citations by year
2026: 492 · 2025: 517 · 2024: 4
FWCI
333.54
Type
journal article
Language
en
Update notices
erratum (2025-04-05)
Open access
Locations
  • The Lancet (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Pure Amsterdam UMC (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
  • ENLIGHTEN (Jurnal Bimbingan dan Konseling Islam) (acceptedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (acceptedVersion)
  • St George's Online Research Archive (St George's University of London) (acceptedVersion)
  • Open Access at Essex (University of Essex) (acceptedVersion)
  • LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
  • PUBLISSO (German National Library of Medicine) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Queen Mary Research Online (Queen Mary University of London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • ScholarWorks @ UTRGV (The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • OAR@UM (University of Malta) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Uppsala University Publications (Uppsala University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Ghent University Academic Bibliography (Ghent University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Digital Access to Libraries (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Florence Research (University of Florence) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • The HKU Scholars Hub (University of Hong Kong) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • Institutional Repositories DataBase (IRDB) (submittedVersion)
  • IrInSubria (University of Insubria) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Nova Science Publishers (Nova Science Publishers, Inc.) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Lirias (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Lithuanian University of Health Sciences (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Research Explorer (The University of Manchester) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa (Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • Seoul National University Open Repository (Seoul National University) (submittedVersion)
  • University of Southern Denmark Research Portal (University of Southern Denmark) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • UTUPub (University of Turku) (submittedVersion)
  • Zaguan (Universidad de Zaragoza) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
  • UK Research and Innovation
  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
  • UKRI Medical Research Council (MR/V034057/1)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Treatment and Management
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
Keywords
diabetes prevalence, diabetes medication use, low- and middle-income countries, regional variation in prevalence, underdiagnosis of diabetes, diabetes epidemiology
MeSH terms
Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Bayes Theorem, Blood Glucose, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Glycated Hemoglobin, Humans, Hypoglycemic Agents, Male, Middle Aged, Global Health, Prevalence, Sex Distribution, Young Adult

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-29, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).

A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-29 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).

Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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