Origins of major human infectious diseases
Open accessAbstract
Many of the major human infectious diseases, including some now confined to humans and absent from animals, are ‘new’ ones that arose only after the origins of agriculture. Where did they come from? Why are they overwhelmingly of Old World origins? Here we show that answers to these questions are different for tropical and temperate diseases; for instance, in the relative importance of domestic animals and wild primates as sources. We identify five intermediate stages through which a pathogen exclusively infecting animals may become transformed into a pathogen exclusively infecting humans. We propose an initiative to resolve disputed origins of major diseases, and a global early warning system to monitor pathogens infecting individuals exposed to wild animals.
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Cross-species transmission results from a complex interplay between pathogen characteristics, the original host's infection, behavior, and ecology, pathogen shedding and survival in the environment, human exposure, and human susceptibility.
“Cross-species transmission results from a complex interplay between the characteristics of the pathogen (2, 10–12): the original host’s infection, behavior, and ecology; how the pathogen is shed into and survives in the environment; how humans are exposed to the pathogen; and how susceptible those humans are to infection (4, 12–16).”
From Impacts of biodiversity and biodiversity loss on zoonotic diseases (2021) · cites this paper as [4]
The Evolutionary stages section explains cross-species infection in terms of pathogen traits, the number and infection rate of animal hosts, opportunities for human exposure, and barriers to infection in the new host. It does not specifically address how pathogens are shed or survive in the environment, so that part of the attributed claim is unsupported by our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredMost epidemics in history have involved a pathogen passing from an animal host to humans and then spreading human-to-human.
“Most epidemics in history have involved the passage of a pathogen from an animal host to humans, followed by human-to-human transmission.54”
From The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic (2022) · cites this paper as [54]
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- Authors
- Wolfe, N. D., Dunavan, C. P., & Diamond, J.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- Corresponding author
- Wolfe, Nathan D.
- Diamond, Jared
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2007-05-17
- Volume
- 447
- Issue
- 7142
- Pages
- 279-283
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- PMC
- PMC7095142
- OpenAlex
- W2055601403
- Semantic Scholar
- e6b7efc9a7bb84861be5645493acecddeff7d558
- Cited by
- 1,867
- References
- 32
- Citations by year
- 2026: 52 · 2025: 83 · 2024: 103 · 2023: 122 · 2022: 150 · 2021: 245 · 2020: 156 · 2019: 78 · 2018: 115 · 2017: 78 · 2016: 79 · 2015: 92 · 2014: 103 · 2013: 84 · 2012: 95
- FWCI
- 56.25
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Geographic Society
- National Institutes of Health
- Fogarty International Center
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Virology and Viral Diseases
- Keywords
- zoonoses, human pathogens, reservoir hosts, wild primates, domestic animals, early warning systems, zoo workers, industrial food production, blood transfusion, vaccine production, tropical diseases, Old World origin
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Climate, Communicable Diseases, Disease Reservoirs, Biological Evolution, Geography, Humans, Zoonoses
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