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Within-sibship genome-wide association analyses decrease bias in estimates of direct genetic effects

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Howe, Laurence J., Nivard, Michel G., Morris, Tim T., Hansen, Ailin F., Rasheed, Humaira, Cho, Yoonsu, Chittoor, Geetha, Ahlskog, Rafael, Lind, Penelope A., Palviainen, Teemu, van der Zee, Matthijs D., Cheesman, Rosa, Mangino, Massimo, Wang, Yunzhang, Li, Shuai, Klaric, Lucija, Ratliff, Scott M., Bielak, Lawrence F., Nygaard, Marianne, Giannelis, Alexandros, Willoughby, Emily A., Reynolds, Chandra A., Balbona, Jared V., Andreassen, Ole A., Ask, Helga, Baras, Aris, Bauer, Christopher R., Boomsma, Dorret I., Campbell, Archie, Campbell, Harry, Chen, Zhengming, Christofidou, Paraskevi, Corfield, Elizabeth, Dahm, Christina C., Dokuru, Deepika R., Evans, Luke M., de Geus, Eco J. C., Giddaluru, Sudheer, Gordon, Scott D., Harden, K. Paige, Hill, W. David, Hughes, Amanda, Kerr, Shona M., Kim, Yongkang, Kweon, Hyeokmoon, Latvala, Antti, Lawlor, Deborah A., Li, Liming, Lin, Kuang, Magnus, Per, Magnusson, Patrik K. E., Mallard, Travis T., Martikainen, Pekka, Mills, Melinda C., Njølstad, Pål Rasmus, Overton, John D., Pedersen, Nancy L., Porteous, David J., Reid, Jeffrey, Silventoinen, Karri, Southey, Melissa C., Stoltenberg, Camilla, Tucker-Drob, Elliot M., Wright, Margaret J., Social Science Genetic Association Consortium, Kweon, Hyeokmoon, Koellinger, Philipp D., Benjamin, Daniel J., Turley, Patrick, Within Family Consortium, Howe, Laurence J., Nivard, Michel G., Morris, Tim T., Hansen, Ailin F., Rasheed, Humaira, Cho, Yoonsu, Chittoor, Geetha, Ahlskog, Rafael, Lind, Penelope A., Palviainen, Teemu, van der Zee, Matthijs D., Cheesman, Rosa, Mangino, Massimo, Wang, Yunzhang, Li, Shuai, Klaric, Lucija, Ratliff, Scott M., Bielak, Lawrence F., Nygaard, Marianne, Giannelis, Alexandros, Willoughby, Emily A., Reynolds, Chandra A., Balbona, Jared V., Andreassen, Ole A., Ask, Helga, Boomsma, Dorret I., Campbell, Archie, Campbell, Harry, Chen, Zhengming, Christofidou, Paraskevi, Corfield, Elizabeth, Dahm, Christina C., Dokuru, Deepika R., Evans, Luke M., de Geus, Eco J. C., Giddaluru, Sudheer, Gordon, Scott D., Harden, K. Paige, Hill, W. David, Hughes, Amanda, Kerr, Shona M., Kim, Yongkang, Latvala, Antti, Lawlor, Deborah A., Li, Liming, Lin, Kuang, Magnus, Per, Magnusson, Patrik K. E., Mallard, Travis T., Martikainen, Pekka, Mills, Melinda C., Njølstad, Pål Rasmus, Pedersen, Nancy L., Porteous, David J., Silventoinen, Karri, Southey, Melissa C., Stoltenberg, Camilla, Tucker-Drob, Elliot M., Wright, Margaret J., Hewitt, John K., Keller, Matthew C., Stallings, Michael C., Lee, James J., Christensen, Kaare, Kardia, Sharon L. R., Peyser, Patricia A., Smith, Jennifer A., Wilson, James F., Hopper, John L., Hägg, Sara, Spector, Tim D., Pingault, Jean-Baptiste, Plomin, Robert, Havdahl, Alexandra, Bartels, Meike, Martin, Nicholas G., Oskarsson, Sven, Justice, Anne E., Millwood, Iona Y., Hveem, Kristian, Naess, Øyvind, Willer, Cristen J., Åsvold, Bjørn Olav, Kaprio, Jaakko, Medland, Sarah E., Walters, Robin G., Evans, David M., Smith, George Davey, Hayward, Caroline, Brumpton, Ben, Hemani, Gibran, Davies, Neil M., Hewitt, John K., Keller, Matthew C., Stallings, Michael C., Lee, James J., Christensen, Kaare, Kardia, Sharon L. R., Peyser, Patricia A., Smith, Jennifer A., Wilson, James F., Hopper, John L., Hägg, Sara, Spector, Tim D., Pingault, Jean-Baptiste, Plomin, Robert, Havdahl, Alexandra, Bartels, Meike, Martin, Nicholas G., Oskarsson, Sven, Justice, Anne E., Millwood, Iona Y., Hveem, Kristian, Naess, Øyvind, Willer, Cristen J., Åsvold, Bjørn Olav, Koellinger, Philipp D., Kaprio, Jaakko, Medland, Sarah E., Walters, Robin G., Benjamin, Daniel J., Turley, Patrick, Evans, David M., Davey Smith, George, Hayward, Caroline, Brumpton, Ben, Hemani, Gibran, Davies, Neil M.·2022·Nature Genetics

Abstract

Estimates from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of unrelated individuals capture effects of inherited variation (direct effects), demography (population stratification, assortative mating) and relatives (indirect genetic effects). Family-based GWAS designs can control for demographic and indirect genetic effects, but large-scale family datasets have been lacking. We combined data from 178,086 siblings from 19 cohorts to generate population (between-family) and within-sibship (within-family) GWAS estimates for 25 phenotypes. Within-sibship GWAS estimates were smaller than population estimates for height, educational attainment, age at first birth, number of children, cognitive ability, depressive symptoms and smoking. Some differences were observed in downstream SNP heritability, genetic correlations and Mendelian randomization analyses. For example, the within-sibship genetic correlation between educational attainment and body mass index attenuated towards zero. In contrast, analyses of most molecular phenotypes (for example, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol) were generally consistent. We also found within-sibship evidence of polygenic adaptation on taller height. Here, we illustrate the importance of family-based GWAS data for phenotypes influenced by demographic and indirect genetic effects.

Overview

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TL;DR

This study combined 178,086 siblings from 19 cohorts to compare population and within-sibship GWAS estimates for 25 phenotypes. Within-sibship estimates were smaller for several behavioral and anthropometric traits, with some downstream differences in heritability, genetic correlation, Mendelian randomization and polygenic adaptation analyses, while most molecular phenotypes were generally consistent.

Key findings

  • Within-sibship shrinkage was largest for number of children (67%; 95% CI 4%, 130%), age at first birth (52%; 30%, 75%), depressive symptoms (50%; 18%, 82%) and educational attainment (47%; 41%, 52%); shrinkage was also found for cognitive ability (22%; 6%, 37%), ever smoking (19%; 9%, 30%) and height (10%; 8%, 12%), with limited evidence for the remaining 17 phenotypes including BMI and SBP.
  • SNP heritability attenuated for educational attainment (population h2 = 0.13 vs within-sibship h2 = 0.04; 76% attenuation; difference P = 5.3 × 10−26), cognitive ability (0.24 vs 0.14; 44%; P = 0.011), ever smoking (0.10 vs 0.07; 25%; P = 0.029) and height (0.41 vs 0.34; 17%; P = 1.6 × 10−3).
  • Genetic correlations with educational attainment attenuated toward zero for BMI (rg = −0.32 to −0.05; difference P = 5.3 × 10−4), ever smoking (−0.41 to −0.14; P = 0.040) and CRP (−0.46 to −0.06; P = 0.039).
  • Within-sibship MR estimates differed from population MR for height on educational attainment (0.06 s.d. vs 0.02 s.d.; difference P = 1.2 × 10−3) and BMI on educational attainment (−0.19 s.d. vs −0.05 s.d.; P < 0.001), age at first birth (P = 2.3 × 10−3) and cognitive ability (P = 0.020); polygenic adaptation on taller height was supported by population (r = 0.022; 95% CI 0.014, 0.031) and within-sibship (r = 0.012; 0.003, 0.020) estimates.

Methods

  • Data came from 178,076 individuals with one or more genotyped siblings from 77,832 sibships in 19 cohorts; 25 phenotypes were analyzed, with phenotype sample sizes ranging from 13,375 to 163,748 (median 82,760). European-ancestry cohorts were meta-analyzed, and 13,856 individuals from the China Kadoorie Biobank were analyzed separately.
  • Population and within-sibship linear regression models were fit in each cohort; the within-sibship model included the mean sibship genotype as a covariate and used family-mean-centered genotype, with age, sex and principal components as covariates and standard errors clustered by sibship. Fixed-effects meta-analysis was performed in METAL.
  • Downstream analyses used LDSC and SumHer for SNP heritability and genetic correlations, within-sibship Mendelian randomization for height and BMI, and tSDS-based Spearman correlations for polygenic adaptation; simulations evaluated LDSC applicability and relatedness effects.

Limitations

  • Stated in the paper: within-sibship models do not control for indirect genetic effects of siblings; assortative mating can bias within-sibship heritability estimates downward; findings are limited to adult phenotypes; family data and statistical inefficiency constrain within-family GWAS; and power was limited for heterogeneity analyses.
  • Stated in the paper: LD score mismatch with 1000 Genomes LD scores in the Norwegian HUNT study and other studies likely inflated LDSC ratios in both population and within-sibship models, and cryptic relatedness likely inflated LDSC ratios in population models but not within-sibship data.
  • Evident from the text: the main meta-analysis was restricted to European-ancestry cohorts, with non-European evidence limited to the China Kadoorie Biobank, and several LDSC confounding estimates were imprecise.

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Crossref · 10.1038/s41588-022-01062-7

Cites

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Figures

Fig. 1 Demographic and indirect genetic effects. Population stratification: population stratification is defined as the distortion of associations between a genotype and a phenotype when ancestry A influences both genotype G (via differences in allele frequencies) and the phenotype X. Principal components and linear mixed model methods control for ancestry but they may not completely control for fine-scale population structure. Assortative mating: assortative mating is a phenomenon where individuals select a partner based on phenotypic (dis)similarities. For example, tall individuals may prefer a tall partner. Assortative mating can induce correlations between causes of an assorted phenotype in subsequent generations. If a phenotype X is influenced by two independent genetic variants G1 and G2 then assortment on X (represented by effects of X on mate choice M) will induce positive correlations between G1 in parent 1 and G2 in parent 2 and vice versa. Parental transmission will then induce correlations between otherwise independent G1 and G2 in offspring. These correlations can distort genetic association estimates. Indirect genetic effects: indirect genetic effects are effects of relative genotypes (via relative phenotypes and the shared environment) on the index individual’s phenotype. These indirect effects influence population GWAS estimates because relative genotypes are also associated with genotypes of the index individual. Indirect genetic effects of parents on offspring are of most interest because they are likely to be the largest. However, indirect genetic effects of siblings or more distal relatives are also possible.
Fig. 1 Demographic and indirect genetic effects. Population stratification: population stratification is defined as the distortion of associations between a genotype and a phenotype when ancestry A influences both genotype G (via differences in allele frequencies) and the phenotype X. Principal components and linear mixed model methods control for ancestry but they may not completely control for fine-scale population structure. Assortative mating: assortative mating is a phenomenon where individuals select a partner based on phenotypic (dis)similarities. For example, tall individuals may prefer a tall partner. Assortative mating can induce correlations between causes of an assorted phenotype in subsequent generations. If a phenotype X is influenced by two independent genetic variants G1 and G2 then assortment on X (represented by effects of X on mate choice M) will induce positive correlations between G1 in parent 1 and G2 in parent 2 and vice versa. Parental transmission will then induce correlations between otherwise independent G1 and G2 in offspring. These correlations can distort genetic association estimates. Indirect genetic effects: indirect genetic effects are effects of relative genotypes (via relative phenotypes and the shared environment) on the index individual’s phenotype. These indirect effects influence population GWAS estimates because relative genotypes are also associated with genotypes of the index individual. Indirect genetic effects of parents on offspring are of most interest because they are likely to be the largest. However, indirect genetic effects of siblings or more distal relatives are also possible.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 2 Population GWAS estimate the association between raw genotypes G and phenotypes X. As outlined in Fig. 1, estimates from population GWAS may not fully control for demography (population stratification and assortative mating) and may also capture indirect genetic effects of relatives. For simplicity we use N to represent all sources of associations between G and X that do not relate to direct effects of G. Circles indicate unmeasured variables and squares indicate measured variables. If parental genotypes are known, G can be separated into nonrandom (determined by parental genotypes) and random (relating to segregation at meiosis) components. Within-sibship GWAS include the mean genotype across a sibship (GF) (a proxy for the mean of the paternal and maternal genotypes GP, M) as a covariate to capture associations between G and X relating to parents. The within-sibship estimate is defined as the effect of the random component: that is, the association between family-mean-centered genotype GC (that is, G − GF) and X. Demography and indirect genetic effects of parents (N) will be captured by GF. The association between GC and X will not be influenced by these sources of association but could be affected by indirect effects of the siblings themselves, which are not controlled for.
Fig. 2 Population GWAS estimate the association between raw genotypes G and phenotypes X. As outlined in Fig. 1, estimates from population GWAS may not fully control for demography (population stratification and assortative mating) and may also capture indirect genetic effects of relatives. For simplicity we use N to represent all sources of associations between G and X that do not relate to direct effects of G. Circles indicate unmeasured variables and squares indicate measured variables. If parental genotypes are known, G can be separated into nonrandom (determined by parental genotypes) and random (relating to segregation at meiosis) components. Within-sibship GWAS include the mean genotype across a sibship (GF) (a proxy for the mean of the paternal and maternal genotypes GP, M) as a covariate to capture associations between G and X relating to parents. The within-sibship estimate is defined as the effect of the random component: that is, the association between family-mean-centered genotype GC (that is, G − GF) and X. Demography and indirect genetic effects of parents (N) will be captured by GF. The association between GC and X will not be influenced by these sources of association but could be affected by indirect effects of the siblings themselves, which are not controlled for.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 3 A flowchart of analyses undertaken in this project. We started by performing quality control and running GWAS models in 19 individual cohorts. We then meta-analyzed GWAS data from 18 of these cohorts with European-ancestry individuals. We then used the European meta-analysis data for downstream analyses including LDSC, MR and polygenic adaptation testing. We performed analyses in the China Kadoorie Biobank separately. QC, quality control.
Fig. 3 A flowchart of analyses undertaken in this project. We started by performing quality control and running GWAS models in 19 individual cohorts. We then meta-analyzed GWAS data from 18 of these cohorts with European-ancestry individuals. We then used the European meta-analysis data for downstream analyses including LDSC, MR and polygenic adaptation testing. We performed analyses in the China Kadoorie Biobank separately. QC, quality control.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 4 Estimates of shrinkage between population and within-sibship models with corresponding 95% CIs. Shrinkage is defined as the % decrease in association between the relevant weighted score and phenotype when comparing the population estimate with the within-sibship estimate. Shrinkage was computed as the ratio of two weighted score association estimates with standard errors derived using leave-one-out jackknifing. The number of individuals contributing to each phenotype ranged from n = 149,174 for height to n = 13,375 for age at menopause. Further information on the sample sizes of each phenotype is contained in Supplementary Table 2. SG, weighted score at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8); SL, weighted score at more liberal threshold (P < 1 × 10−5); Education, educational attainment; EverSmk, ever smoking; WHR, waist-to-hip ratio; Alcohol, weekly alcohol consumption; Menarche, age at menarche; AFB, age at first birth; Children, number of biological children; Menopause, age at menopause; Cognition, cognitive ability; Depressive, depressive symptoms; PA, physical activity; CPD, cigarettes per day; LDL, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol; HDL, HDL-cholesterol; TG, triglycerides; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; FEV1, forced expiratory volume; FEV1FVC, ratio of FEV1/forced vital capacity; HbA1c, hemoglobin A1C.
Fig. 4 Estimates of shrinkage between population and within-sibship models with corresponding 95% CIs. Shrinkage is defined as the % decrease in association between the relevant weighted score and phenotype when comparing the population estimate with the within-sibship estimate. Shrinkage was computed as the ratio of two weighted score association estimates with standard errors derived using leave-one-out jackknifing. The number of individuals contributing to each phenotype ranged from n = 149,174 for height to n = 13,375 for age at menopause. Further information on the sample sizes of each phenotype is contained in Supplementary Table 2. SG, weighted score at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8); SL, weighted score at more liberal threshold (P < 1 × 10−5); Education, educational attainment; EverSmk, ever smoking; WHR, waist-to-hip ratio; Alcohol, weekly alcohol consumption; Menarche, age at menarche; AFB, age at first birth; Children, number of biological children; Menopause, age at menopause; Cognition, cognitive ability; Depressive, depressive symptoms; PA, physical activity; CPD, cigarettes per day; LDL, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol; HDL, HDL-cholesterol; TG, triglycerides; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; FEV1, forced expiratory volume; FEV1FVC, ratio of FEV1/forced vital capacity; HbA1c, hemoglobin A1C.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 5 LDSC SNP h2 estimates for 25 phenotypes using population and within-sibship meta-analysis data with corresponding 95% CIs. The number of individuals contributing to each phenotype ranged from n = 149,174 for height to n = 13,375 for age at menopause. BMI, body mass index; Education, educational attainment; EverSmk, ever smoking; SBP, systolic blood pressure; WHR, waist-hip ratio; Alcohol, weekly alcohol consumption; Menarche, age at menarche; AFB, age at first birth; Children, number of biological children; Menopause, age at menopause; Cognition, cognitive ability; Depressive, depressive symptoms; PA, physical activity; CPD, cigarettes per day; LDL, LDL cholesterol; HDL, HDL cholesterol; TG, triglycerides; CRP, C-reactive protein; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; FEV1, forced expiratory volume; FEV1FVC, ratio of FEV1/forced vital capacity; HbA1c, Haemoglobin A1C. Further information on the sample sizes of each phenotype is contained in Supplementary Table 2.
Fig. 5 LDSC SNP h2 estimates for 25 phenotypes using population and within-sibship meta-analysis data with corresponding 95% CIs. The number of individuals contributing to each phenotype ranged from n = 149,174 for height to n = 13,375 for age at menopause. BMI, body mass index; Education, educational attainment; EverSmk, ever smoking; SBP, systolic blood pressure; WHR, waist-hip ratio; Alcohol, weekly alcohol consumption; Menarche, age at menarche; AFB, age at first birth; Children, number of biological children; Menopause, age at menopause; Cognition, cognitive ability; Depressive, depressive symptoms; PA, physical activity; CPD, cigarettes per day; LDL, LDL cholesterol; HDL, HDL cholesterol; TG, triglycerides; CRP, C-reactive protein; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; FEV1, forced expiratory volume; FEV1FVC, ratio of FEV1/forced vital capacity; HbA1c, Haemoglobin A1C. Further information on the sample sizes of each phenotype is contained in Supplementary Table 2.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 6 LDSC rg estimates between educational attainment and 20 phenotypes using population and within-sibship meta-analysis data with corresponding 95% CIs. The number of individuals contributing to the educational attainment GWAS was n = 128,777 with sample sizes for outcomes ranging from n = 149,174 for height to n = 27,638 for cognitive ability. BMI, body mass index; Education, educational attainment; EverSmk, ever smoking; SBP, systolic blood pressure; WHR, waist-hip ratio; Alcohol, weekly alcohol consumption; Menarche, age at menarche; AFB, age at first birth; Children, number of biological children; Menopause, age at menopause; Cognition, cognitive ability; Depressive, depressive symptoms; CPD, cigarettes per day; LDL, LDL cholesterol; HDL, HDL cholesterol; TG, triglycerides; CRP, C-reactive protein; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; FEV1, forced expiratory volume; HbA1c, Haemoglobin A1C. Further information on the sample sizes of each phenotype is contained in Supplementary Table 2.
Fig. 6 LDSC rg estimates between educational attainment and 20 phenotypes using population and within-sibship meta-analysis data with corresponding 95% CIs. The number of individuals contributing to the educational attainment GWAS was n = 128,777 with sample sizes for outcomes ranging from n = 149,174 for height to n = 27,638 for cognitive ability. BMI, body mass index; Education, educational attainment; EverSmk, ever smoking; SBP, systolic blood pressure; WHR, waist-hip ratio; Alcohol, weekly alcohol consumption; Menarche, age at menarche; AFB, age at first birth; Children, number of biological children; Menopause, age at menopause; Cognition, cognitive ability; Depressive, depressive symptoms; CPD, cigarettes per day; LDL, LDL cholesterol; HDL, HDL cholesterol; TG, triglycerides; CRP, C-reactive protein; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; FEV1, forced expiratory volume; HbA1c, Haemoglobin A1C. Further information on the sample sizes of each phenotype is contained in Supplementary Table 2.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 7 Spearman rank correlation estimates and corresponding 95% CIs between tSDS (SDS aligned with height-increasing alleles) and absolute height Z scores. Positive correlations indicate evidence of historical positive selection on height-increasing alleles. The pooled estimate is a meta-analysis of the correlation estimates from the individual studies shown above while the European meta-analysis estimate is the correlation estimate using the meta-analysis GWAS data. The number of individuals in the meta-analysis estimate was n = 149,174 with the sample sizes for the displayed individual studies ranging from n = 40,068 in UK Biobank to 4,708 in the Netherlands Twin Register. Further information on available height data in each phenotype is contained in Supplementary Table 1. QIMR, Queensland Institute of Medical Research.
Fig. 7 Spearman rank correlation estimates and corresponding 95% CIs between tSDS (SDS aligned with height-increasing alleles) and absolute height Z scores. Positive correlations indicate evidence of historical positive selection on height-increasing alleles. The pooled estimate is a meta-analysis of the correlation estimates from the individual studies shown above while the European meta-analysis estimate is the correlation estimate using the meta-analysis GWAS data. The number of individuals in the meta-analysis estimate was n = 149,174 with the sample sizes for the displayed individual studies ranging from n = 40,068 in UK Biobank to 4,708 in the Netherlands Twin Register. Further information on available height data in each phenotype is contained in Supplementary Table 1. QIMR, Queensland Institute of Medical Research.CC BY · PubMed Central
Extended Data Fig. 1 Within-sibship shrinkage for height across European ancestry cohorts. AMDTSS = Australian Mammographic Density Twin Study, DTR = Danish Twins Registry, NTR = Netherlands Twin Registry, QIMR = QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute (QIMR), TEDS = Twins Early Development Study. Extended Data Figure 1 shows estimates of within-sibship shrinkage and 95% confidence intervals for height variants in all of the cohorts contributing to the European meta-analysis as well as the meta-analysis GWAS. Shrinkage is defined as the % decrease in association between the relevant weighted score and phenotype when comparing the population estimate to the within-sibship estimate. Shrinkage was computed as the ratio of two weighted score association estimates with standard errors derived using leave-one-out jackknifing. These estimates used the weighted score for each phenotype at the more liberal threshold (P < 1×10−5). The total number of individuals in the meta-analysis was n = 149,174 with individual study sample sizes ranging from n = 601 for the Colorado based CADD study to n = 40,068 for UK Biobank. Further information on samples with height data in each cohort are contained in Supplementary Table 1.
Extended Data Fig. 1 Within-sibship shrinkage for height across European ancestry cohorts. AMDTSS = Australian Mammographic Density Twin Study, DTR = Danish Twins Registry, NTR = Netherlands Twin Registry, QIMR = QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute (QIMR), TEDS = Twins Early Development Study. Extended Data Figure 1 shows estimates of within-sibship shrinkage and 95% confidence intervals for height variants in all of the cohorts contributing to the European meta-analysis as well as the meta-analysis GWAS. Shrinkage is defined as the % decrease in association between the relevant weighted score and phenotype when comparing the population estimate to the within-sibship estimate. Shrinkage was computed as the ratio of two weighted score association estimates with standard errors derived using leave-one-out jackknifing. These estimates used the weighted score for each phenotype at the more liberal threshold (P < 1×10−5). The total number of individuals in the meta-analysis was n = 149,174 with individual study sample sizes ranging from n = 601 for the Colorado based CADD study to n = 40,068 for UK Biobank. Further information on samples with height data in each cohort are contained in Supplementary Table 1.CC BY · PubMed Central
Extended Data Fig. 2 Within-sibship shrinkage for educational attainment across European ancestry cohorts. AMDTSS = Australian Mammographic Density Twin Study, DTR = Danish Twins Registry, NTR = Netherlands Twin Registry, QIMR = QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute (QIMR).Extended Data Figure 2 shows estimates of within-sibship shrinkage and 95% confidence intervals for educational attainment variants in all of the cohorts contributing to the European meta-analysis as well as the meta-analysis GWAS. Shrinkage is defined as the % decrease in association between the relevant weighted score and phenotype when comparing the population estimate to the within-sibship estimate. Shrinkage was computed as the ratio of two weighted score association estimates with standard errors derived using leave-one-out jackknifing. These estimates used the weighted score for each phenotype at the more liberal threshold (P < 1×10−5). The total number of individuals in the meta-analysis was n = 128,777 with individual study sample sizes ranging from n = 742 for STR Psych Cohort 1 to n = 39,531 for UK Biobank. Further information on samples with educational attainment data in each cohort are contained in Supplementary Table 1.
Extended Data Fig. 2 Within-sibship shrinkage for educational attainment across European ancestry cohorts. AMDTSS = Australian Mammographic Density Twin Study, DTR = Danish Twins Registry, NTR = Netherlands Twin Registry, QIMR = QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute (QIMR).Extended Data Figure 2 shows estimates of within-sibship shrinkage and 95% confidence intervals for educational attainment variants in all of the cohorts contributing to the European meta-analysis as well as the meta-analysis GWAS. Shrinkage is defined as the % decrease in association between the relevant weighted score and phenotype when comparing the population estimate to the within-sibship estimate. Shrinkage was computed as the ratio of two weighted score association estimates with standard errors derived using leave-one-out jackknifing. These estimates used the weighted score for each phenotype at the more liberal threshold (P < 1×10−5). The total number of individuals in the meta-analysis was n = 128,777 with individual study sample sizes ranging from n = 742 for STR Psych Cohort 1 to n = 39,531 for UK Biobank. Further information on samples with educational attainment data in each cohort are contained in Supplementary Table 1.CC BY · PubMed Central
Extended Data Fig. 3 Within-sibship shrinkage estimates from China Kadoorie Biobank. SG = score including variants with P < 5×10−8, SL = score including variants with P < 1×10−5, BMI = body mass index, SBP = systolic blood pressure, EverSmk = ever smoking. Extended Data Figure 3 contains within-sibship shrinkage estimates and 95% confidence intervals for height, BMI, educational attainment, systolic blood pressure and ever-smoking genetic variants in China Kadoorie Biobank. Shrinkage is defined as the % decrease in association between the relevant weighted score and phenotype when comparing the population estimate to the within-sibship estimate. Shrinkage was computed as the ratio of two weighted score association estimates with standard errors derived using leave-one-out jackknifing. The figure includes genetic variants from the genome-wide significant (blue) and liberal (red) thresholds. Note that the genetic variants tested were identified in UK Biobank, but any ancestral differences will likely equally affect both the population and within-sibship estimates, meaning that the shrinkage estimate are unlikely to be biased by ancestral differences. Data was available from n = 13,856 individuals for each of the 6 phenotypes.
Extended Data Fig. 3 Within-sibship shrinkage estimates from China Kadoorie Biobank. SG = score including variants with P < 5×10−8, SL = score including variants with P < 1×10−5, BMI = body mass index, SBP = systolic blood pressure, EverSmk = ever smoking. Extended Data Figure 3 contains within-sibship shrinkage estimates and 95% confidence intervals for height, BMI, educational attainment, systolic blood pressure and ever-smoking genetic variants in China Kadoorie Biobank. Shrinkage is defined as the % decrease in association between the relevant weighted score and phenotype when comparing the population estimate to the within-sibship estimate. Shrinkage was computed as the ratio of two weighted score association estimates with standard errors derived using leave-one-out jackknifing. The figure includes genetic variants from the genome-wide significant (blue) and liberal (red) thresholds. Note that the genetic variants tested were identified in UK Biobank, but any ancestral differences will likely equally affect both the population and within-sibship estimates, meaning that the shrinkage estimate are unlikely to be biased by ancestral differences. Data was available from n = 13,856 individuals for each of the 6 phenotypes.CC BY · PubMed Central
Extended Data Fig. 4 SumHer SNP heritability estimates. BMI = body mass index, Education = educational attainment, EverSmk = ever smoking, SBP = systolic blood pressure, WHR = waist-hip ratio, Alcohol = weekly alcohol consumption, Menarche = age at menarche, AFB = age at first birth, Children = number of biological children, Menopause = age at menopause, Cognition = cognitive ability, Depressive = depressive symptoms, PA = physical activity, CPD = cigarettes per day, LDL = LDL cholesterol, HDL = HDL cholesterol, TG = triglycerides, CRP = C-reactive protein, eGFR = estimated glomerular filtration rate, FEV1 = forced expiratory volume, FEV1FVC = ratio of FEV1/forced vital capacity, HbA1c = Haemoglobin A1C. Extended Data Figure 4 displays SumHer SNP h2 (LDAK-thin model) estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals for 25 phenotypes using population and within-sibship meta-analysis data. The number of individuals contributing to each phenotype ranged from n = 149,174 for height to n = 13,375 for age at menopause. Further information on the sample sizes of each phenotype are contained in Supplementary Table 2.
Extended Data Fig. 4 SumHer SNP heritability estimates. BMI = body mass index, Education = educational attainment, EverSmk = ever smoking, SBP = systolic blood pressure, WHR = waist-hip ratio, Alcohol = weekly alcohol consumption, Menarche = age at menarche, AFB = age at first birth, Children = number of biological children, Menopause = age at menopause, Cognition = cognitive ability, Depressive = depressive symptoms, PA = physical activity, CPD = cigarettes per day, LDL = LDL cholesterol, HDL = HDL cholesterol, TG = triglycerides, CRP = C-reactive protein, eGFR = estimated glomerular filtration rate, FEV1 = forced expiratory volume, FEV1FVC = ratio of FEV1/forced vital capacity, HbA1c = Haemoglobin A1C. Extended Data Figure 4 displays SumHer SNP h2 (LDAK-thin model) estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals for 25 phenotypes using population and within-sibship meta-analysis data. The number of individuals contributing to each phenotype ranged from n = 149,174 for height to n = 13,375 for age at menopause. Further information on the sample sizes of each phenotype are contained in Supplementary Table 2.CC BY · PubMed Central
Extended Data Fig. 5 Evidence of polygenic adaption using SDS for 25 phenotypes. BMI = body mass index, EverSmk = ever smoking, SBP = systolic blood pressure, WHR = waist-hip ratio, AFB = age at first birth, PA = physical activity, CPD = cigarettes per day, TG = triglycerides, CRP = C-reactive protein, eGFR = estimated glomerular filtration rate, FEV1 = forced expiratory volume, FEV1FVC = ratio of FEV1/forced vital capacity, HbA1c = Haemoglobin A1C. Extended Data Figure 5 displays spearman rank correlation estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals between tSDS (SDS aligned with phenotype increasing alleles) and absolute phenotype Z scores for 25 phenotypes. The phenotype Z scores were taken from both the meta-analysis of population (blue) and within-sibship (red) estimates. Positive correlations indicate evidence of historical positive selection on phenotype increasing alleles. The number of individuals contributing to each phenotype ranged from n = 149,174 for height to n = 13,375 for age at menopause. Further information on the sample sizes of each phenotype are contained in Supplementary Table 2.
Extended Data Fig. 5 Evidence of polygenic adaption using SDS for 25 phenotypes. BMI = body mass index, EverSmk = ever smoking, SBP = systolic blood pressure, WHR = waist-hip ratio, AFB = age at first birth, PA = physical activity, CPD = cigarettes per day, TG = triglycerides, CRP = C-reactive protein, eGFR = estimated glomerular filtration rate, FEV1 = forced expiratory volume, FEV1FVC = ratio of FEV1/forced vital capacity, HbA1c = Haemoglobin A1C. Extended Data Figure 5 displays spearman rank correlation estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals between tSDS (SDS aligned with phenotype increasing alleles) and absolute phenotype Z scores for 25 phenotypes. The phenotype Z scores were taken from both the meta-analysis of population (blue) and within-sibship (red) estimates. Positive correlations indicate evidence of historical positive selection on phenotype increasing alleles. The number of individuals contributing to each phenotype ranged from n = 149,174 for height to n = 13,375 for age at menopause. Further information on the sample sizes of each phenotype are contained in Supplementary Table 2.CC BY · PubMed Central
Extended Data Fig. 6 Scatter plot of SDS p-value bins against mean tSDS (of the bin) using the within-sibship height meta-analysis GWAS data. In Extended Data Figure 6 each data point is the mean tSDS (SDS alligned with height increasing allele) in a set of 1000 genetic variants. Genetic variants were ordered by height P-value (from within-sibship meta-analysis GWAS data) and divided into bins. The plot illustrates evidence of a correlation between decreasing height P-value and higher mean tSDS suggestive of polygenic adaptation on height increasing alleles. The within-sibship European GWAS meta-analysis data (n = 149,174 individuals) were used for this analysis.
Extended Data Fig. 6 Scatter plot of SDS p-value bins against mean tSDS (of the bin) using the within-sibship height meta-analysis GWAS data. In Extended Data Figure 6 each data point is the mean tSDS (SDS alligned with height increasing allele) in a set of 1000 genetic variants. Genetic variants were ordered by height P-value (from within-sibship meta-analysis GWAS data) and divided into bins. The plot illustrates evidence of a correlation between decreasing height P-value and higher mean tSDS suggestive of polygenic adaptation on height increasing alleles. The within-sibship European GWAS meta-analysis data (n = 149,174 individuals) were used for this analysis.CC BY · PubMed Central
Extended Data Fig. 7 Histogram of tSDS for independent variants associated with height in the within-sibship meta-analysis data (P < 1×10−5). Extended Data Figure 7 Extended Data Figure 7 is a histogram of the distribution of tSDS (SDS aligned with height increasing alleles) amongst 310 putative independent height loci identified from the within-sibship meta-analysis data (P < 1×10−5). The plot indicates that the mean tSDS of these loci is higher than 0, consistent with polygenic adaptation on height increasing alleles. The within-sibship European GWAS meta-analysis data (n = 149,174 individuals) were used for this analysis.
Extended Data Fig. 7 Histogram of tSDS for independent variants associated with height in the within-sibship meta-analysis data (P < 1×10−5). Extended Data Figure 7 Extended Data Figure 7 is a histogram of the distribution of tSDS (SDS aligned with height increasing alleles) amongst 310 putative independent height loci identified from the within-sibship meta-analysis data (P < 1×10−5). The plot indicates that the mean tSDS of these loci is higher than 0, consistent with polygenic adaptation on height increasing alleles. The within-sibship European GWAS meta-analysis data (n = 149,174 individuals) were used for this analysis.CC BY · PubMed Central
Extended Data Fig. 8 LDSC estimates of confounding across 25 phenotypes using within-sibship data. BMI = body mass index, EverSmk = ever smoking, SBP = systolic blood pressure, WHR = waist-hip ratio, AFB = age at first birth, PA = physical activity, CPD = cigarettes per day, TG = triglycerides, CRP = C-reactive protein, eGFR = estimated glomerular filtration rate, FEV1 = forced expiratory volume, FEV1FVC = ratio of FEV1/forced vital capacity, HbA1c = Haemoglobin A1C. Extended Data Figure 8 shows LDSC ratio estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals 25 phenotypes using the within-sibship meta-analysis data. The LDSC ratio is a measure of the % of the polygenic signal attributable to confounding in a GWAS dataset. The number of individuals contributing to each phenotype ranged from n = 149,174 for height to n = 13,375 for age at menopause. Further information on the sample sizes of each phenotype are contained in Supplementary Table 2.
Extended Data Fig. 8 LDSC estimates of confounding across 25 phenotypes using within-sibship data. BMI = body mass index, EverSmk = ever smoking, SBP = systolic blood pressure, WHR = waist-hip ratio, AFB = age at first birth, PA = physical activity, CPD = cigarettes per day, TG = triglycerides, CRP = C-reactive protein, eGFR = estimated glomerular filtration rate, FEV1 = forced expiratory volume, FEV1FVC = ratio of FEV1/forced vital capacity, HbA1c = Haemoglobin A1C. Extended Data Figure 8 shows LDSC ratio estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals 25 phenotypes using the within-sibship meta-analysis data. The LDSC ratio is a measure of the % of the polygenic signal attributable to confounding in a GWAS dataset. The number of individuals contributing to each phenotype ranged from n = 149,174 for height to n = 13,375 for age at menopause. Further information on the sample sizes of each phenotype are contained in Supplementary Table 2.CC BY · PubMed Central
Extended Data Fig. 9 LDSC ratios from height GWAS. Extended Data Figure 9 shows LDSC ratio estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals for height GWAS from the summary data of 7 individual studies and the meta-analysis of European studies. The LDSC ratio is a measure of the % of the polygenic signal attributable to confounding in a GWAS dataset. The number of individuals in the meta-analysis estimate was n = 149,174 with the sample sizes for the displayed individual studies ranging from n = 40,068 in UK Biobank to 8,810 in the Finnish Twin Cohort. Further information on available height data in each phenotype are contained in Supplementary Table 1.
Extended Data Fig. 9 LDSC ratios from height GWAS. Extended Data Figure 9 shows LDSC ratio estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals for height GWAS from the summary data of 7 individual studies and the meta-analysis of European studies. The LDSC ratio is a measure of the % of the polygenic signal attributable to confounding in a GWAS dataset. The number of individuals in the meta-analysis estimate was n = 149,174 with the sample sizes for the displayed individual studies ranging from n = 40,068 in UK Biobank to 8,810 in the Finnish Twin Cohort. Further information on available height data in each phenotype are contained in Supplementary Table 1.CC BY · PubMed Central

Verification

Claims the paper makes

60 Own result · 16 Own interpretation · 14 Own method · 10 Partly supported · 7 Supported · 4 No basis given · 2 Supported so far · 1 Mixed support · accuracy not yet measured

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  • Probably not a substantial claim. 20
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 27
41 of 41
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Within-sibship models capture demographic and indirect genetic effects of parents in the family mean genotype covariate, so the within-sibship estimate is not influenced by these sources.

    “Demography and indirect genetic effects of parents (N) will be captured by GF. The association between GC and X will not be influenced by these sources of association but could be affected by indirect effects of the siblings themselves, which are not controlled for.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Assortative mating is unlikely to affect within-sibship GWAS estimates.

    “while assortative mating is unlikely to affect within-sibship GWAS estimates”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    If biases affect the population and within-sibship SNP heritability estimates equally, then the difference between the two estimates will be unbiased.

    “If we assume that biases affect the estimates equally then the difference between the two estimates will be unbiased.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    All other coefficients remain consistent when writing the expectation of hWS² as a function of k and hPop².

    “Therefore, assuming all other coefficients remain consistent, the expectation of hWS² can be written as a function of k and hPop².”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Effects from demographic and familial pathways inflate (rather than shrink) population-based estimates.

    “In general, these effects have been shown to inflate (rather than shrink) population-based estimates, so we estimated within-sibship shrinkage (the % difference from population to within-sibship estimates).”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Educational attainment is influenced by demographic and indirect genetic effects.

    “We estimated only pairwise genetic correlations between educational attainment and all other phenotypes because of previous evidence that educational attainment is influenced by demographic and indirect genetic effects and, given the limited statistical power, to reduce the multiple testing burden.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    There is previous evidence for shrinkage on height and educational attainment.

    “These phenotypes were chosen because of previous evidence for shrinkage on these phenotypes and available data.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Cryptic relatedness, defined as nonindependence between close relatives in the study sample, leads to inflated precision in GWAS associations.

    “One source of inflation in GWAS associations is cryptic relatedness: nonindependence between close relatives in the study sample results which leads to inflated precision.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Inflated signal relating to cryptic relatedness may result in confounded signal, which is detected by the LD score intercept/ratio.

    “Inflated signal relating to cryptic relatedness may result in confounded signal, which is detected by the LD score intercept/ratio.”
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Metadata

Authors
Howe, L. J., Nivard, M. G., Morris, T. T., Hansen, A. F., Rasheed, H., Cho, Y., Chittoor, G., Ahlskog, R., Lind, P. A., Palviainen, T., van der Zee, M. D., Cheesman, R., Mangino, M., Wang, Y., Li, S., Klaric, L., Ratliff, S. M., Bielak, L. F., Nygaard, M., Giannelis, A., Willoughby, E. A., Reynolds, C. A., Balbona, J. V., Andreassen, O. A., Ask, H., Baras, A., Bauer, C. R., Boomsma, D. I., Campbell, A., Campbell, H., Chen, Z., Christofidou, P., Corfield, E., Dahm, C. C., Dokuru, D. R., Evans, L. M., de Geus, E. J. C., Giddaluru, S., Gordon, S. D., Harden, K. P., Hill, W. D., Hughes, A., Kerr, S. M., Kim, Y., Kweon, H., Latvala, A., Lawlor, D. A., Li, L., Lin, K., Magnus, P., Magnusson, P. K. E., Mallard, T. T., Martikainen, P., Mills, M. C., Njølstad, P. R., Overton, J. D., Pedersen, N. L., Porteous, D. J., Reid, J., Silventoinen, K., Southey, M. C., Stoltenberg, C., Tucker-Drob, E. M., Wright, M. J., Social Science Genetic Association Consortium, Kweon, H., Koellinger, P. D., Benjamin, D. J., Turley, P., Within Family Consortium, Howe, L. J., Nivard, M. G., Morris, T. T., Hansen, A. F., Rasheed, H., Cho, Y., Chittoor, G., Ahlskog, R., Lind, P. A., Palviainen, T., van der Zee, M. D., Cheesman, R., Mangino, M., Wang, Y., Li, S., Klaric, L., Ratliff, S. M., Bielak, L. F., Nygaard, M., Giannelis, A., Willoughby, E. A., Reynolds, C. A., Balbona, J. V., Andreassen, O. A., Ask, H., Boomsma, D. I., Campbell, A., Campbell, H., Chen, Z., Christofidou, P., Corfield, E., Dahm, C. C., Dokuru, D. R., Evans, L. M., de Geus, E. J. C., Giddaluru, S., Gordon, S. D., Harden, K. P., Hill, W. D., Hughes, A., Kerr, S. M., Kim, Y., Latvala, A., Lawlor, D. A., Li, L., Lin, K., Magnus, P., Magnusson, P. K. E., Mallard, T. T., Martikainen, P., Mills, M. C., Njølstad, P. R., Pedersen, N. L., Porteous, D. J., Silventoinen, K., Southey, M. C., Stoltenberg, C., Tucker-Drob, E. M., Wright, M. J., Hewitt, J. K., Keller, M. C., Stallings, M. C., Lee, J. J., Christensen, K., Kardia, S. L. R., Peyser, P. A., Smith, J. A., Wilson, J. F., Hopper, J. L., Hägg, S., Spector, T. D., Pingault, J.-B., Plomin, R., Havdahl, A., Bartels, M., Martin, N. G., Oskarsson, S., Justice, A. E., Millwood, I. Y., Hveem, K., Naess, Ø., Willer, C. J., Åsvold, B. O., Kaprio, J., Medland, S. E., Walters, R. G., Evans, D. M., Smith, G. D., Hayward, C., Brumpton, B., Hemani, G., Davies, N. M., Hewitt, J. K., Keller, M. C., Stallings, M. C., Lee, J. J., Christensen, K., Kardia, S. L. R., Peyser, P. A., Smith, J. A., Wilson, J. F., Hopper, J. L., Hägg, S., Spector, T. D., Pingault, J.-B., Plomin, R., Havdahl, A., Bartels, M., Martin, N. G., Oskarsson, S., Justice, A. E., Millwood, I. Y., Hveem, K., Naess, Ø., Willer, C. J., Åsvold, B. O., Koellinger, P. D., Kaprio, J., Medland, S. E., Walters, R. G., Benjamin, D. J., Turley, P., Evans, D. M., Davey Smith, G., Hayward, C., Brumpton, B., Hemani, G., & Davies, N. M.
Affiliations
  • Regeneron (United States) (US)
  • Geisinger Health System (US)
Venue
Nature Genetics
Published
2022-05
Volume
54
Issue
5
Pages
581-592
ISSN
  • 1061-4036 (ISSN-L)
  • 1546-1718
OpenAlex
W4229455035
Cited by
377
References
59
Citations by year
2026: 69 · 2025: 88 · 2024: 102 · 2023: 81 · 2022: 34
FWCI
46.80
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Nature Genetics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Explore Bristol Research (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • VU Research Portal (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • KTH Publication Database DiVA (KTH Royal Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja (submittedVersion)
  • Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • University of Southern Denmark Research Portal (University of Southern Denmark) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Apollo
  • Apollo (cc-by)
Funders
  • RCUK | Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011)
  • Jacobs Foundation
  • RCUK | MRC | Medical Research Foundation (MC_UU_00011)
Topics
  • Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetic Associations and Epidemiology
  • Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetic and phenotypic traits in livestock
  • Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetic Mapping and Diversity in Plants and Animals
Keywords
direct genetic effects, indirect genetic effects, population stratification, assortative mating, heritability, genetic correlation, polygenic adaptation, height, educational attainment, age at first birth, number of children, cognitive ability, depressive symptoms, smoking, body mass index, LDL cholesterol, Mendelian randomization
MeSH terms
Humans, Phenotype, Multifactorial Inheritance, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Genome-Wide Association Study, Mendelian Randomization Analysis

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