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A Meta-Analysis of the Effectiveness of Health Belief Model Variables in Predicting Behavior
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Abstract
The Health Belief Model (HBM; Rosenstock, 1966) was constructed to explain which beliefs should be targeted in communication campaigns to cause positive health behaviors. The model specifies that if individuals perceive a negative health outcome to be severe, perceive themselves to be susceptible to it, perceive the benefits to behaviors that reduce the likelihood of that outcome to be high, and perceive the barriers to adopting those behaviors to be low, then the behavior is likely for those individuals. A meta-analysis of 18 studies (2,702 subjects) was conducted to determine whether measures of these beliefs could longitudinally predict behavior. Benefits and barriers were consistently the strongest predictors. The length of time between measurement of the HBM beliefs and behavior, prevention versus treatment behaviors, and drug-taking regimens versus other behaviors were identified as moderators of the HBM variables' predictive power. Based on the weakness of two of the predictors, the continued use of the direct effects version of the HBM is not recommended.
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“Research has shown that the HBM constructs are predictive of actual behavior”
From Treatment histories, barriers, and preferences for individuals with symptoms of generalized anxiety disorder (2024) · cites this paper as Carpenter, 2010
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Cites
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“The HBM has been criticized for the noninclusion of interpersonal factors [43,44].”
BackgroundKuhn, E. S. (2013) · ScholarWorks @ The University of New Orleans (The University of New Orleans) · Cited by 5
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“This lends itself to the evolving discussion of how much an individual’s predictive behavior(s) is associated with what is defined as “good health” (Carpenter, 2010).”
BackgroundKieti, S. N. (2016) · Unisa Institutional Repository (University of South Africa) · Cited by 5
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“Previous studies have demonstrated that traditional media, social media and public health communication can influence knowledge, behaviour and perception of public health issues(1-2) and influence preparedness and protective behaviour .(3-4)Communication strategies should follow best practices for public health and ri…”
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“…hypotheses we aimed to test, and also with other meta-analyses of theoretical models in the field that exclusively focus on a single approach (e.g. carpenter, 2010; Milne et al., 2000), it meant that we did not make reference to, or consider, other theoretical approaches in our analyses and…”
Rivera, E. P., Urioste-Stone, S. M. D., Rickard, L. N., Anup, K. C., Stimson, J. R., Caprara, A., & Estrada, L. N. (2025) · Tropical Diseases Travel Medicine and Vaccines · doi:10.1186/s40794-025-00252-5 · Cited by 4
“We utilized constructs from the Health Belief Model (HBM), as this model has been widely used to understand the perceptions and the adoption, or lack of adoption, of preventive behaviors associated with a variety of health-related issues [53, 54].”
Onuorah, L., Santy‐Tomlinson, J., & Draper, P. (2025) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-025-23773-2 · Cited by 4
“Also, if the alternative behaviour like adopting evidence-based healthy lifestyles is perceived to be beneficial and highly likely to protect them from developing type 2 diabetes and if barriers to adopting the healthy behaviour is perceived as low [79, 80].”
Fang, Y., & Wang, D. (2025) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0330829 · Cited by 5
“According to the HBM, the greater an individual’s sense of vulnerability to specific health problems and the more severe they perceive the consequences of inaction to be, the higher the likelihood they will take steps to avert the health problem [24].”
Jo, Y., Park, J., & Shin, H. (2026) · Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing · doi:10.1080/10548408.2025.2558004 · Cited by 4
“C. J. Carpenter (2010), through a meta-analysis, examined which components of the HBM exhibited strong predictive power based on the existing literature.”
Chou, Y.-J., & Shih, C. M. (2022) · Taiwanese Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology · doi:10.1016/j.tjog.2022.03.013 · Cited by 4
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Li, M., Wang, S., & Darweesh, A. R. A. S. (2025) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0320049 · Cited by 4
“…(a) perceives a particular risk as directly threatening (perceived susceptibility + perceived severity), (b) perceives their capability to execute a behavior required to produce specific outcomes (self-efficacy), and (c) believes that a specific action will prevent harm (response efficacy) [82–84].”
Li, J., He, J., Yang, G., Cao, Z., & Zhong, X. (2025) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0321469 · Cited by 4
“In addition, a review also found that the predictive effect of perceived severity on behavior in HBM is weak [36].”
Alotaibi, K. A. (2025) · Journal of Multidisciplinary Healthcare · doi:10.2147/jmdh.s520357 · Cited by 7
Effects of Perceived Stress on Problematic Eating: Three Parallel Moderated Mediation Models
Guo, H., Ye, Z., Han, J., Luo, Y., & Chen, H. (2025) · Nutrients · doi:10.3390/nu17111928 · Cited by 4
“Considering that health beliefs are robust predictors of health behaviors [24], exploring their role in the stress–eating relationship could provide new insights for developing targeted interventions that modify maladaptive health beliefs in managing stress-driven eating problems.”
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Williams, D. M. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781316275047.017 · Cited by 3
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“The perceived risk reduces while the perceived benefit increases the likelihood of the behavior, which is the adherence in this case (27).”
BackgroundCosta, E. C. V., Barbosa, T. W. P., Soares, M., McIntyre, T. M., & Pereira, M. G. (2022) · International Journal of Sexual Health · doi:10.1080/19317611.2022.2032527 · Cited by 5
“Finally, considering previous research on HBM (Carpenter, 2010; Lin et al., 2005), and findings from the present study on individual determinants that indicate that greater barriers toward condom use are associated with higher rates of STIs among VCTC’s users, interventions should consider changing…”
MethodRiccò, M., Zaniboni, A., Satta, E., Baldassarre, A., Cerviere, M. P., Marchesi, F., & Peruzzi, S. (2022) · Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease · doi:10.3390/tropicalmed7110370 · Cited by 4
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“Perceived benefits refer to pandemic prevention behaviors that can effectively reduce the threat of the disease and other potential advantages [56].”
BackgroundKroke, A. M., & Ruthig, J. (2023) · Current Psychology · doi:10.1007/s12144-023-04953-y · Cited by 3
“Much like the TPB, the amount of variance explained by each component of the HBM depends on the situation (Carpenter, 2010).”
Bak, M., Chin, C.-L., & Chin, J. (2023) · PubMed Central · Cited by 4
Dolan, H., Pohl, J. S., Pituch, K. A., & Coon, D. W. (2024) · Journal of Aging and Health · doi:10.1177/08982643241242518 · Cited by 4
“While the HBM and the concept of perceived susceptibility ’ s predictive ability has been inconsistent for long-term behavior change (Carpenter, 2010), the framework was selected due to its subjective focus.”
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“The HBM emphasises the role of individual beliefs and perceptions in shaping health behaviours (18).”
BackgroundSun-related knowledge and practices in Irish construction and agricultural workers
Hogan, V., Hogan, M., Kirwan, O., Walsh, C. L., McLaughlin, C., Moynihan, A. J., Connolly, A., Walsh, J., & Coggins, M. A. (2024) · Occupational Medicine · doi:10.1093/occmed/kqae042 · Cited by 4
“Previous research demonstrates that perceived constraints or barriers have a negative influence on behaviour change [27] and that barriers to sun protection have the strongest impact on sun-protective behaviour [28,29].”
BackgroundDesch, J., Thompson, E. L., Beckstead, J. W., Owens, H. N., Cayama, M. R., Hernandez, P., Valencia, J., Zimet, G. D., Vamos, C. A., & Daley, E. M. (2024) · Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics · doi:10.1080/21645515.2024.2390231 · Cited by 4
“20– 23 Prior research demonstrates that perceived benefits and barriers are among the strongest predictors of vaccination behaviors.”
BackgroundDissecting neuromyths in education: an analysis of educators, students, and parents in Taiwan
Cho, Y., & Yeh, T. (2024) · International Journal of Science Education · doi:10.1080/09500693.2024.2415094 · Cited by 4
“When individuals hold strong beliefs or values based on neuromyths, they are more likely to make decisions or engage in actions intended to enhance learning outcomes (Carpenter, 2010).”
Mahpour, A., Rahimi, A., Baghestani, A., & Mollajani, M. (2025) · Transportation Planning and Technology · doi:10.1080/03081060.2025.2487818 · Cited by 4
“Both susceptibility and severity concentrate on an individual’s perception of negative outcomes, suggesting these factors collectively represent perceived threats (Carpenter 2010).”
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Ort, A. (2019) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-658-10727-7_35 · Cited by 4
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Vermandere, H. (2016) · AVRUG-bulletin/Afrika Focus · doi:10.1163/2031356x-02902010 · Cited by 4
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Dorrian, J., Thorsteinsson, E., Benedetto, M. D., Lane‐Krebs, K., Day, M. A., Hutchinson, A. D., & Sherman, K. A. (2017) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781316779156 · Cited by 4
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Panicker, A. S., Samskani, M. S., Vimala, S., Poornima, G., & Veronika, M. (2019) · Asia Pacific Journal of Counselling and Psychotherapy · doi:10.1080/21507686.2019.1704807 · Cited by 4
“Previous research has identified perceived barriers as a significant predictor of behaviour (Carpenter, 2010; Janz & Becker, 1984).”
BackgroundBrown, A., Sutherland, R., Janssen, L. M., Hudson, N., Chooi, A., Reynolds, R., Walton, A., Lecathelinais, C., Reilly, K., Nathan, N., et al. (2020) · Public Health Nutrition · doi:10.1017/s1368980020003997 · Cited by 4
“The HBM has been used as a theoretical modelinthe development of mobilehealth or m-health interventions (22) , and a number of its constructs have been found in meta-analyses to be effective in predicting a range of health behaviours (23) .”
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Moon, J., Rigg, J. S., & Smith, J. E. (2020) · Tobacco Use Insights · doi:10.1177/1179173x20972384 · Cited by 4
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O’Neil-Pirozzi, T. M. (2021) · American Journal of Speech-Language Pathology · doi:10.1044/2021_ajslp-20-00145 · Cited by 4
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Labti, O., & Belkadi, E. (2021) · International Conference on Computing, Communication and Networking Technologies (ICCCNT) · doi:10.1109/icccnt51525.2021.9580037 · Cited by 4
“Perceived risks regarding travel intentions have been shown to possess the most robust effects while gauging HBM constructs [22].”
BackgroundUtilizing social and behavioral change methods in clinical pharmacy initiatives
Hemenway, A. N., Meyer‐Junco, L., Zobeck, B., & Pop, M. K. (2022) · JACCP JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN COLLEGE OF CLINICAL PHARMACY · doi:10.1002/jac5.1593 · Cited by 4
“In addition, of all the constructs, perceived benefits and barriers have been shown to be the strongest drivers of the HBM.35 Targeting interventions to address these constructs may provide more benefit than targeting other constructs of the HBM. Based on the information collected, the vaccine pharmacist decides to cr…”
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“HBM suggests that individuals’ beliefs about health problems, wishes and preferences, perceived benefits of action and barriers to action, as well as self-efficacy and cues to action can explain engagement in health-promoting behaviors [22,23].”
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BackgroundHu, S., Kirkpatrick, C. E., Hong, Y., Lee, N., Lee, S., & Hinnant, A. (2022) · Health Education Research · doi:10.1093/her/cyac026 · Cited by 4
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“The HBM was formulated by a group of social psychologists in the early 1950s in the United States; they tended to comprehend the underpinning rationales deterring people from adopting prophylactic health approaches (Carpenter, 2010; Janz & Becker, 1984).”
BackgroundJaffe, A. E., Walton, T., Walker, D. D., & Kaysen, D. L. (2023) · Journal of Traumatic Stress · doi:10.1002/jts.22908 · Cited by 4
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“Since its inception, HBM has been widely adopted to understand why people succeed or fail to take preventive health measures.(15) Noticeable efforts also confirmed HBM’s explanatory power in analyzing, designing, and delivering health campaign messages.”
BackgroundHow Attitudes towards Air Pollution May Impact Public Health: A Case Study of Almaty, Kazakhstan
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Ghazy, R. M., Gebreal, A., Saleeb, M., Sallam, M., El-Deen, A. E.-S. N., Sheriff, S. D., Tessema, E. A., Ahurwendeire, S., Tsoeu, N., Chamambala, P. C., et al. (2023) · Journal of Community Health · doi:10.1007/s10900-023-01261-1 · Cited by 4
“The model hypothesized that several factors, including cues to action, self-efficacy, risk perceptions of susceptibility and severity, as well as perceived benefits and barriers, can influence an individual’s health-related behav - iors [18].”
Njororai, F., Amulla, W. O., Nyaranga, C. K., Cholo, W. O., & Adekunle, T. E. (2024) · COVID · doi:10.3390/covid4060048 · Cited by 4
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“In addition, the efficiency of studies based on theories such as the Health Belief Model (HBM) has already been maintained, particularly in preventive health behavior [15].”
BackgroundA Study on Usage Effect and Acceptance Factors of a Particulate Matter Application (App)
YUNGWOOKKIM, Kim, H., Moon, H., & 이하나 (2017) · Journal of Public Relations · doi:10.15814/jpr.2017.21.4.114 · Cited by 4
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“The HBM addresses an individual’s perception of the warning and the danger of a health issue and appraises health-seeking behavior in preventing or managing the health problem (14-17).”
BackgroundHong, J., & An, S. (2022) · Korean Journal of Journalism & Communication Studies · doi:10.20879/kjjcs.2022.66.1.001 · Cited by 4
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“There are four individual perceptions that could predict their behavior [10].”
BackgroundJensen, J. D., Ratcliff, C. L., Weaver, J., Krakow, M., Payton, W., & Loewen, S. (2015) · Breast Cancer Research and Treatment · doi:10.1007/s10549-015-3581-2 · Cited by 4
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“1), perceived threat, perceived benefits, perceived barriers, and cues to action (Carpenter, 2010), were chosen as predictors of dog-waste pick-up behaviors.”
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“, Health Belief Model) and are often the focus of interventions [8] [9].”
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“tended to focus on how perceptions of health benefits and barriers have implications for a person’s own health [9, 10].”
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“…consider themselves vulnerable to the threat (i.e., perceived susceptibility), feel that the recommended behavior is efficacious in reducing the threat (i.e., perceived benefits), and consider the costs or risks of the advised behavior reasonable (i.e., perceived barriers) (Carpenter, 2010).”
BackgroundKobayashi, T., Tokiya, M., Matsumoto, A., Nakano, T., Hirota, Y., & Hara, M. (2024) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2024.1348170 · Cited by 3
“” Similarly, previous studies have reported that an awareness of the risks associated with the illness and the severity of its consequences may have resulted in behavioral change (36–38).”
BackgroundMethodAdiman, R., Razak, N. A., & van der Wee, N. J. A. (2024) · Information Management and Business Review · doi:10.22610/imbr.v16i4(i).4283 · Cited by 3
“As a result, existing HBM studies are typically focused on the four original variables (Carpenter, 2010).”
InfluentialFarah, Z., Bazant, E., Basha, I., Saleh, N., Moen, A. C., Ghosn, N., & Maison, P. (2025) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.126890 · Cited by 3
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“These models commonly inform interventions that effectively promote adaptive health behavior initiation and maintenance (Carpenter, 2010; McEachan et al., 2011; Mead & Irish, 2020).”
He, I. L., Liu, P., Wong, M. C. M., Chu, C. H., Yiu, C. K. Y., & Lo, E. C. M. (2025) · Journal of Dentistry · doi:10.1016/j.jdent.2025.106025 · Cited by 3
Parrish, J., Neville, T. H., Tarn, D. M., & Chang, D. (2025) · Journal of Intensive Care Medicine · doi:10.1177/08850666251371579 · Cited by 3
Beckman, J., Padilla, N. D., van der Woud, A., van den Burg, P. J. M., & Novotny, V. M. J. (2025) · Vox Sanguinis · doi:10.1111/vox.70115 · Cited by 3
Tirotto, F. A., Varaden, D., Kelly, F. J., & Poortinga, W. (2025) · Building and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2025.114089 · Cited by 3
“This pattern is in line with previous research showing that perceived vulnerability is the weakest and most inconsistent predictor among the different HBM constructs [44,88] and extends that observation to household air quality behaviours.”
Perceptions and beliefs of local Iranian communities towards forest protection
Savari, M., & Khaleghi, B. (2025) · Socio-Economic Planning Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.seps.2025.102407 · Cited by 4
Chung, M., Willis, E., & Applequist, J. (2025) · Journal of Advertising · doi:10.1080/00913367.2025.2593673 · Cited by 3
“Whereas HBM is widely used in health promotion research (Carpenter 2010), it has been underused in advertising contexts.”
Pakravan-Charvadeh, M. R., & Maleknia, R. (2026) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-026-35106-3 · Cited by 5
“Although knowledge and awareness may automatically translate into action; they might also enhance an individual’s perception of susceptibility, which then drives behavioral intentions 16 .”
The relationship between physical activity and social anxiety in adolescents: a cross-lagged study
Zhou, S., & Yang, W. (2026) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2025.1752588 · Cited by 3
“To address these limitations, the present study integrates Conservation of Resources Theory, Self-efficacy Theory, and the Health Behavior Model to explain the potential bidirectional dynamics between PA and SA.”
InfluentialCai, S., van Berlo, Z. M. C., & Nguyen, M. H. (2026) · Journal of Environmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103019 · Cited by 3
Hagger, M. S. (2026) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2026.119264 · Cited by 3
Lee, J. Y., & Lee, S. H. (2021) · Korean Journal of Journalism & Communication Studies · doi:10.20879/kjjcs.2021.65.3.003 · Cited by 3
Thøgersen‐Ntoumani, C., Stenling, A., Izett, E., & Quested, E. (2022) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph192316168 · Cited by 6
“A meta-analysis (k = 18), which examined longitudinal associations between constructs from the HBM and health behavior, found a near zero effect [13].”
Informiert = Geimpft? Das Informationsverhalten und die COVID-19-Impfentscheidung bei Studierenden
Schäfer, M., Stark, B., Werner, A. M., Mülder, L. M., Reichel, J. L., Heller, S., Schwab, L., Rigotti, T., Beutel, M. E., Simon, P. D., et al. (2023) · Publizistik · doi:10.1007/s11616-023-00779-7 · Cited by 3
“In der Vergangenheit haben sich kommunikationsbezogene Faktoren auch für gesundheitliches Handeln als wichtige Einflussgrößen erwiesen (vgl. u. a. Binder et al. 2014; Carpenter 2010; Friemel und Geber 2021; Green et al. 2021; Rosenstock et al. 1988).”
BackgroundSikandar, M. Z., Haider, S. M. B., Maqbool, I., Ain, Q., Naeem, S., Naeem, A., & Sulehri, F. U. (2023) · Cureus · doi:10.7759/cureus.46034 · Cited by 3
Understanding patients' mobility for treatment seeking in India
Karmakar, R., Reddy, U. S., & Bhagat, R. B. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-50184-3 · Cited by 3
Borah, P. (2024) · Health Communication · doi:10.1080/10410236.2024.2386718 · Cited by 3
“By synthesizing the results of 18 empirical articles in relation to the effectiveness of susceptibility, severity, benefits, and barrier, Carpenter (2010) validated the significant role of perceived benefits in predicting health behaviors.”
Patel, V., Grant, L. E., Shereefdeen, H., MacKay, M., Cheng, L., Phypers, M., Papadopoulos, A., & McWhirter, J. E. (2024) · Frontiers in Communication · doi:10.3389/fcomm.2024.1512014 · Cited by 3
Golebie, E., van Riper, C. J., Hitzroth, G., & Joffe-Nelson, N. (2024) · Water Biology and Security · doi:10.1016/j.watbs.2024.100337 · Cited by 3
Why Do Happy People Exercise More? The Role of Beliefs in the Psychosocial Benefits of Exercise
Jung, S., Ku, X., & Choi, I. (2025) · Journal of Happiness Studies · doi:10.1007/s10902-025-00885-5 · Cited by 3
“Exercise benefit beliefs consistently emerge as strong predictors of exercise behavior across various theoretical frameworks, despite variations in terminology (see Carpenter, 2010 for a review).”
Shereefdeen, H., Grant, L. E., Patel, V., MacKay, M., Papadopoulos, A., Cheng, L., Phypers, M., & McWhirter, J. E. (2025) · JMIR Public Health and Surveillance · doi:10.2196/68724 · Cited by 3
“Benefits and barrier constructs, observed less frequently in news media articles, are thought to be the strongest predictors of behavioral change [68].”
Etesamifard, T., Jouybari, T. A., Etesamifard, F., Mahboubi, M., Aghaei, A., & Ataee, M. (2014) · Journal of Biology and Today s World · doi:10.15412/j.jbtw.01031205 · Cited by 3
Yasobant, S., Shewade, H. D., Vora, K. S., Annerstedt, K. S., Isaakidis, P., Dholakia, N. B., & Mavalankar, D. V. (2017) · BMC Health Services Research · doi:10.1186/s12913-017-2256-6 · Cited by 3
“Previous experience is known to have a significant effect on the heath belief system of an individual [27]; the same may be applicable to subsequent CY utilization.”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Carpenter, C. J.
- Affiliations
- Western Illinois University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Carpenter, Christopher J.
- Venue
- Health Communication
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2010-11-30
- Volume
- 25
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 661-669
- ISSN
- 1041-0236 (ISSN-L)
- 1532-7027
- OpenAlex
- W2102635611
- Cited by
- 1,604
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 138 · 2025: 133 · 2024: 118 · 2023: 173 · 2022: 166 · 2021: 190 · 2020: 164 · 2019: 108 · 2018: 75 · 2017: 78 · 2016: 93 · 2015: 53 · 2014: 53 · 2013: 30 · 2012: 24
- FWCI
- 2.04
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Health Communication (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Applied Psychology › Behavioral Health and Interventions
- Social Sciences › Communication › Media Influence and Health
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Health and Wellbeing Research
- Keywords
- Health Belief Model, health behavior prediction, perceived benefits, perceived barriers, perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, health campaigns, longitudinal prediction
- MeSH terms
- Humans, Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice, Models, Psychological, Health Behavior, Health Communication
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