Cited by 1,659Dementia and Cognitive Impairment ResearchCancer-related cognitive impairment studiesNeurological Disease Mechanisms and Treatments

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Rate of progression of mild cognitive impairment to dementia – meta‐analysis of 41 robust inception cohort studies

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Mitchell, A. J., Shiri‐Feshki, M.·2009·Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica

DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0447.2008.01326.x

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Abstract

Objective: To quantify the risk of developing dementia in those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Method: Meta‐analysis of inception cohort studies. Results: Forty‐one robust cohort studies were identified. To avoid heterogeneity clinical studies, population studies and clinical trials were analysed separately. Using Mayo defined MCI at baseline and adjusting for sample size, the cumulative proportion who progressed to dementia, to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and to vascular dementia (VaD) was 39.2%, 33.6% and 6.2%, respectively in specialist settings and 21.9%, 28.9% and 5.2%, respectively in population studies. The adjusted annual conversion rate (ACR) from Mayo defined MCI to dementia, AD and VaD was 9.6%, 8.1% and 1.9%, respectively in specialist clinical settings and 4.9%, 6.8% and 1.6% in community studies. Figures from non‐Mayo defined MCI and clinical trials are also reported. Conclusion: The ACR is approximately 5–10% and most people with MCI will not progress to dementia even after 10 years of follow‐up.

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Screening for cognitive impairment in an Australian aged care assessment team as part of comprehensive geriatric assessment
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“The literature suggests an estimated 10% annual rate of progression to dementia (Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
Background
Mild Cognitive Impairment in Retired Professional Football Players With a History of Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: A Pilot Investigation
Didehbani, N., Fields, L. M., Wilmoth, K., LoBue, C., Hart, J., & Cullum, C. M. (2020) · Cognitive and Behavioral Neurology · doi:10.1097/wnn.0000000000000240 · Cited by 9
“Higher rates of conversion are typically observed from aMCI to AD compared to other types of dementia such as vascular dementia (Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
BackgroundInfluential
Post-Test Diagnostic Accuracy Measures of a Continuous Test With a Disease of Ordinal Multistages
Samawi, H. M., Yin, J., Rochani, H. D., Mo, C., & Kersey, J. X. (2021) · Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research · doi:10.1080/19466315.2021.1873841 · Cited by 8
Computerised cognition-based interventions for maintaining cognitive function in cognitively healthy people in late life
Gates, N. J., Karim, S., Rutjes, A. W., Ware, J. J., Chong, L. Y., March, E. G., & Vernooij, R. W. M. (2016) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd012277 · Cited by 9
Modeling Brain Volume Using Deep Learning-Based Physical Activity Features in Patients With Dementia
Park, B., Choi, B., Lee, H., Jang, J.-H., Roh, H. W., Kim, E. Y., Hong, C. H., Son, S. J., & Yoon, D. (2022) · Frontiers in Neuroinformatics · doi:10.3389/fninf.2022.795171 · Cited by 8
“While the numbers of patients with dementia and MCI are rapidly increasing due to recent changes in the proportions of aging populations, only a fraction of patients with MCI progress to clinical AD (Visser et al., 2006; Mitchell, 2009).”
Background
Dietary interventions for maintaining cognitive function in cognitively healthy people in late life
Siervo, M., Lara, J., Munro, A., Tang, E. Y. H., Rutjes, A. W., & Stephan, B. C. M. (2015) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd011910 · Cited by 7
Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation Improves Executive Functioning through Modulation of Social Cognitive Networks in Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment: Preliminary Results
Sacco, L., Ceroni, M., Pacifico, D., Zerboni, G., Rossi, S., Galati, S., Caverzasio, S., Kaelin‐Lang, A., & Riccitelli, G. C. (2023) · Diagnostics · doi:10.3390/diagnostics13030415 · Cited by 8
“[7] reported an annual progression rate of approximately 5% for dementia, other studies have highlighted that some MCI patients do not progress at all toward dementia [8] and even revert to normal [9], with an estimated reversion rate of 12.”
Background
The value of maintaining cognition in patients with mild cognitive impairment: The innovation headroom and potential cost‐effectiveness of roflumilast
Handels, R. L. H., Grimm, S. E., Blokland, A., Possemis, N., Ramakers, I. H. G. B., Sambeth, A., Verhey, F. R. J., Vos, S. J. B., Joore, M. A., Prickaerts, J., et al. (2023) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.13001 · Cited by 8
Assessing the Neurocognitive Disorders of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fifth Edition)
Crowe, S. F. (2015) · Australian Psychologist · doi:10.1111/ap.12104 · Cited by 9
Is it possible to identify individuals with mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease using a 30-minute neuropsychological battery?
Coutinho, G., de Oliveira‐Souza, R., Moll, J., Tovar-Moll, F. F., & Mattos, P. (2013) · Archives of Clinical Psychiatry (São Paulo) · doi:10.1590/s0101-60832013000400003 · Cited by 7
Interaction of erythrocyte eicosapentaenoic acid and physical activity predicts reduced risk of mild cognitive impairment
Street, S. J., Parletta, N., Milte, C. M., Sullivan, K. A., Hills, A. P., Buckley, J. D., & Howe, P. R. C. (2014) · Aging & Mental Health · doi:10.1080/13607863.2014.971705 · Cited by 8
“With an estimated 5% 10% of MCI cases converting to dementia per year (Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009), finding ways to reduce MCI may also help to reduce the rate of dementia onset.”
Background
Rare and unusual dementias
Gupta, S., Fiertag, O., & Warner, J. P. (2009) · Advances in Psychiatric Treatment · doi:10.1192/apt.bp.107.003558 · Cited by 11
A correlativity study of plasma APL1β28 and clusterin levels with MMSE/MoCA/CASI in aMCI patients
Meng, Y., Li, H., Hua, R., Wang, H., Lu, J. G., Yu, X., & Zhang, C. (2015) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep15546 · Cited by 10
Automated tests for diagnosing and monitoring cognitive impairment: a diagnostic accuracy review
Aslam, R. W., Bates, V., Dundar, Y., Hounsome, J. C., Richardson, M., Krishan, A., Dickson, R., Boland, A., Kotas, E., Fisher, J. D., et al. (2016) · Health Technology Assessment · doi:10.3310/hta20770 · Cited by 8
Interaction between C-reactive protein and cognitive functions according to APOE gene polymorphism in post-menopausal women
Bojar, I., Gujski, M., Pinkas, J., Raczkiewicz, D., Owoc, A., & Humeniuk, E. (2016) · Archives of Medical Science · doi:10.5114/aoms.2016.62868 · Cited by 8
“Mild cognitive impairment should not be ignored, because practically in all individuals with MCI, an increased risk of the development of dementia occurs [32].”
Background
Association between Sleep Disordered Breathing and Nighttime Driving Performance in Mild Cognitive Impairment
Cross, N. E., Terpening, Z., Duffy, S. L., Lewis, S. J. G., Grunstein, R. R., WONG, K. K. H., & Naismith, S. L. (2017) · Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society · doi:10.1017/s1355617717000273 · Cited by 8
“E-mail: sharon.naismith@sydney.edu.au 502 more likely to develop ongoing cognitive and functional decline when compared to those with single domain MCI (Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
Background
Associative Learning and Regional White Matter Deficits in Mild Cognitive Impairment
Boespflug, E. L., Eliassen, J. C., Welge, J. A., & Krikorian, R. (2014) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-131682 · Cited by 8
Mild cognitive impairment – A hospital-based prospective study
Mukku, S. S. R., Varghese, M., Bharath, S., & Kumar, K. (2019) · Journal of Geriatric Mental Health · doi:10.4103/jgmh.jgmh_30_18 · Cited by 8
Inactive bowel movement and stroke are associated with increased risks of mild cognitive impairment among community-living Singapore elderly
Huang, K., Tang, X., Li, Y., Zhang, Z., Ye, K. X., Shen, Q.-F., Wang, X., Zhu, X., Huang, X., Lu, G., et al. (2020) · Aging · doi:10.18632/aging.103674 · Cited by 8
“MCI is also regarded as a preclinical phase of dementia, because around 22% of MCI-affected people would progress to dementia within 3 to 10 years upon diagnosis of MCI, while only 3% of non-MCI people develop dementia [4].”
Background
A longitudinal study using latent curve models of groups with mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s disease
Moustafa, A. A., Tindle, R., Alashwal, H., & Diallo, T. (2020) · Journal of Neuroscience Methods · doi:10.1016/j.jneumeth.2020.109040 · Cited by 8
Are Guidelines Needed for the Diagnosis and Management of Incipient Alzheimer's Disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment?
Palmer, K., Musicco, M., & Caltagirone, C. (2010) · International Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.4061/2010/417615 · Cited by 11
“Research both from clinical- and populationbased samples suggest that MCI patients have a high risk of progressing to a full dementia syndrome; a meta-analyses [12] of longitudinal studies of individuals with MCI reported an annual conversion rate of 8.”
BackgroundInfluential
Three‐month Chan‐Chuang qigong program improves physical performance and quality of life of patients with cognitive impairment: A randomized controlled trial
Hsu, C., Yeh, M., & Liu, Y. E. (2022) · Research in Nursing & Health · doi:10.1002/nur.22219 · Cited by 7
Evidence for health promotion interventions to improve cognitive and physical functioning outcomes in older adults with MCI: A state-of-the-art review
Rookes, T., Frost, R., Marston, L., Armstrong, M., Barrado‐Martín, Y., & Walters, K. R. (2025) · Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics · doi:10.1016/j.archger.2025.106049 · Cited by 7
Mild Cognitive Impairment
Janelidze, M., & Botchorishvili, N. (2018) · InTech eBooks · doi:10.5772/intechopen.75509 · Cited by 9
“6%) in a study spanning between 1992 and 2009 [44].”
Background
The Active Brains Digital Intervention to Reduce Cognitive Decline in Older Adults: Protocol for a Feasibility Randomized Controlled Trial
Smith, K. A., Bradbury, K. J., Essery, R., Pollet, S., Mowbray, F., Slodkowska‐Barabasz, J., Denison‐Day, J., Hayter, V., Kelly, J., Somerville, J., et al. (2020) · JMIR Research Protocols · doi:10.2196/18929 · Cited by 8
“There is not enough evidence yet that screening for MCI is either effective or cost-effective [10], but a systematic review of cohort studies suggests that between 5% and 10% of MCI cases progress into dementia annually [11].”
Background
Validation of a novel computerized cognitive function test for the rapid detection of mild cognitive impairment
Kouzuki, M., Miyamoto, M., Tanaka, N., & Urakami, K. (2022) · BMC Neurology · doi:10.1186/s12883-022-02997-4 · Cited by 7
“While the annual conversion rate from MCI to dementia is thought to be approximately 5–15% based on the observation of two review articles [3, 8], MCI does not always exacerbate progressively, and cognitive function may return to normal levels after MCI.”
Background
Reduced body cell mass and functions in lower extremities are associated with mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s dementia
Doan, D. N. T., Kim, K., Ku, B. U., Lee, K. H., & Kim, J. U. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-39110-9 · Cited by 8
Montreal Cognitive Assessment in Mild Cognitive Impairment: Relationship with Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers and Conversion to Dementia
Bernardes, C., Lima, M., Duro, D., Silva‐Spínola, A., Durães, J., Tábuas‐Pereira, M., Baldeiras, I., Freitas, S., & Santana, I. J. (2023) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-230916 · Cited by 8
C-reactive protein and cognitive impairment: A bidirectional Mendelian randomization study
Xie, W., Kong, C., Luo, W., Zheng, J., & Zhou, Y. (2024) · Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics · doi:10.1016/j.archger.2024.105359 · Cited by 8
Development of the Telephone-based Daily Instrumental Activities of Living (T-DIAL) to assess financial management remotely in older adults
Thompson, J. L., Woods, S. P., Webber, T. A., Medina, L. D., Podell, K., Yoshida, H., Evans, D., Ridgely, N. C., Babicz, M. A., Gomez, E. M., et al. (2024) · Aging Neuropsychology and Cognition · doi:10.1080/13825585.2024.2352900 · Cited by 8
“Nevertheless, questionnaire-based functional measures are subject to reporting biases, including the influence of depression and limited deficit awareness (Mitchell & Shiri ‐ Feshki, 2009; Tucker-Drob, 2011).”
Technology and Cognitive Empowerment for Healthy Elderly
Serino, S., & Pedroli, E. (2016) · Advances in psychology, mental health, and behavioral studies (APMHBS) book series · doi:10.4018/978-1-4666-9986-1.ch008 · Cited by 7
Cognitive decline after surgery and anaesthesia: correlation does not mean causation
Docherty, A. B., & Shenkin, S. D. (2016) · Anaesthesia · doi:10.1111/anae.13592 · Cited by 7
Hypothetical Interventions on Risk Factors for Cognitive Impairment among Chinese Older Adults: An Application of the Parametric G-Formula
Zhou, Z., Cai, L., Fu, J., Han, Y., & Fang, Y. (2020) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph17031021 · Cited by 7
Detecting Signatures of Early-stage Dementia with Behavioural Models Derived from Sensor Data
Poyiadzi, R., Yang, W., Ben‐Shlomo, Y., Craddock, I. J., Coulthard, E. J., Santos‐Rodríguez, R., Selwood, J., & Twomey, N. (2020) · Explore Bristol Research · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2007.03615 · Cited by 9
Poor Cognitive Function Is Associated with Obstructive Lung Diseases in Taiwanese Adults
Hsieh, S., Wu, D., Wang, C., Chen, S., Hung, C., & Kuo, C. (2021) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph18052344 · Cited by 7
“MCI is associated with a 5 to 10% annual conversion rate to dementia [4,5].”
Background
Vaskuläre Demenz
Peters, N., & Dichgans, M. (2010) · Der Nervenarzt · doi:10.1007/s00115-009-2848-4 · Cited by 7
Predicting risk of dementia with machine learning and survival models using routine primary care records
Langham, J., Stamate, D., Wu, C. A., Murtagh, F. D., Morgan, C., Reeves, D., Ashcroft, D. M., Kontopantelis, E., & McMillan, B. (2021) · IEEE International Conference on Bioinformatics and Biomedicine (BIBM) · doi:10.1109/bibm52615.2021.9669363 · Cited by 7
The Outcome of Patients with Amyloid-Negative Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment
Cardoso, S., Silva, D., Alves, L., Guerreiro, M., & de Mendonça, A. (2022) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-215465 · Cited by 7
“Indeed, patients diagnosed with aMCI in a clinical setting haveabout10%annualprogressionrateofconversion todementia,usuallyAD[4].”
Assessment of non-directed computer-use behaviours in the home can indicate early cognitive impairment: A proof of principle longitudinal study
Stringer, G., Couth, S., Heuvelman, H., Bull, C., Gledson, A., Keane, J. A., Rayson, P., Sutcliffe, A., Sawyer, P., Zeng, X., et al. (2022) · Aging & Mental Health · doi:10.1080/13607863.2022.2036946 · Cited by 7
“Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki (2009) found that conversion rates of MCI to AD dementia was 8.1% per year in specialist clinical settings and 6.8% in community settings.”
BackgroundInfluential
A Neuropsychological Approach to Mild Cognitive Impairment
Alfano, D. P., Grummisch, J. A., Gordon, J. L., & Hadjistavropoulos, T. (2022) · Archives of Clinical Neuropsychology · doi:10.1093/arclin/acac026 · Cited by 8

Authors: Mitchell, A. J., & Shiri‐Feshki, M.
Affiliations: University of Leicester (GB)
Nottinghamshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust (GB)
Corresponding author: Mitchell, A. J.
ORCID: Mitchell, A. J.
Venue: Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2009-03-03
Volume: 119
Issue: 4
Pages: 252-265
ISSN: 0001-690X (ISSN-L)
1600-0447
DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0447.2008.01326.x
OpenAlex: W2052226124
Cited by: 1,659
References: 87
Citations by year: 2026: 84 · 2025: 98 · 2024: 135 · 2023: 118 · 2022: 129 · 2021: 176 · 2020: 165 · 2019: 115 · 2018: 96 · 2017: 86 · 2016: 88 · 2015: 85 · 2014: 62 · 2013: 75 · 2012: 55
FWCI: 5.80
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Cancer-related cognitive impairment studies
Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Neurology › Neurological Disease Mechanisms and Treatments
Keywords: mild cognitive impairment, dementia progression, Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, Mayo criteria
MeSH terms: Aged, Alzheimer Disease, Cognition Disorders, Dementia, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Middle Aged, Neuropsychological Tests, Severity of Illness Index, Dementia, Vascular, Cohort Studies, Prevalence, Disease Progression

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Rate of progression of mild cognitive impairment to dementia – meta‐analysis of 41 robust inception cohort studies

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