Cited by 1,659Dementia and Cognitive Impairment ResearchCancer-related cognitive impairment studiesNeurological Disease Mechanisms and Treatments

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Rate of progression of mild cognitive impairment to dementia – meta‐analysis of 41 robust inception cohort studies

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Mitchell, A. J., Shiri‐Feshki, M.·2009·Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica

DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0447.2008.01326.x

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Abstract

Objective: To quantify the risk of developing dementia in those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Method: Meta‐analysis of inception cohort studies. Results: Forty‐one robust cohort studies were identified. To avoid heterogeneity clinical studies, population studies and clinical trials were analysed separately. Using Mayo defined MCI at baseline and adjusting for sample size, the cumulative proportion who progressed to dementia, to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and to vascular dementia (VaD) was 39.2%, 33.6% and 6.2%, respectively in specialist settings and 21.9%, 28.9% and 5.2%, respectively in population studies. The adjusted annual conversion rate (ACR) from Mayo defined MCI to dementia, AD and VaD was 9.6%, 8.1% and 1.9%, respectively in specialist clinical settings and 4.9%, 6.8% and 1.6% in community studies. Figures from non‐Mayo defined MCI and clinical trials are also reported. Conclusion: The ACR is approximately 5–10% and most people with MCI will not progress to dementia even after 10 years of follow‐up.

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Background
Cognitive frailty increases the risk of long‐term care dependency in community‐dwelling older adults: A nationwide cohort study in South Korea
Yi, J., & Yoon, J. Y. (2023) · Geriatrics and gerontology international/Geriatrics & gerontology international · doi:10.1111/ggi.14534 · Cited by 11
Effectiveness of Robot Interventions for Cognitive and Psychological Outcomes among Older Adults with Cognitive Impairment: A Meta-Analysis
Noh, D., & Shim, M. (2023) · Healthcare · doi:10.3390/healthcare11162341 · Cited by 11
“According to a study by Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki [8], the rate of annual transition from MCI to dementia was 9.”
Influential
Estimated Investment Need to Increase England's Capacity to Diagnose Eligibility for an Alzheimer's Treatment to G7 Average Capacity Levels
Mattke, S., Shi, Z., Hanson, M., Mitchell, S., Lynch, C., Kalonji, K. M., & Lanman, L. (2024) · The Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.14283/jpad.2024.24 · Cited by 11
Effects of Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation on Cognitive Function in Older Adults with and without Mild Cognitive Impairment: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials
Li, S., Tang, Y. C., You, Z., & Ni, Y. (2024) · Gerontology · doi:10.1159/000537848 · Cited by 11
“Moreover, a meta-analysis showed that 39.2% of MCI patients could develop dementia [14].”
Influential
The Association of the 24-Hour Activity Cycle Profiles With Cognition in Older Adults With Mild Cognitive Impairment: A Cross-Sectional Study
Balbim, G. M., Falck, R. S., Silva, N. C. B. S., Kramer, A. F., Voss, M. W., & Liu-Ambrose, T. Y. L. (2024) · The Journals of Gerontology Series A · doi:10.1093/gerona/glae099 · Cited by 11
“The worldwide prevalence of MCI— regardless of its subtype—among community-dwelling adults older than 50 is 15.56% (5), with progression rates to dementia ranging from 10% to 39% in clinical settings and 3% to 21.9% in community settings (3,6,7).”
BackgroundInfluential
Detection of Mild Cognitive Impairment Through Hand Motor Function Under Digital Cognitive Test: Mixed Methods Study
Li, A., Li, J., Chai, J., Wu, W., Chaudhary, S., Zhao, J., & Qiang, Y. (2024) · JMIR mhealth and uhealth · doi:10.2196/48777 · Cited by 11
“Previous evidence has shown that patients with MCI develop dementia or Alzheimer dementia (AD) at a rate of approximately 10% to 15% per year [3,4], significantly higher than the incidence of dementia in the general population, which is 1% to 2% per year.”
Background
Choroid plexus volumes and auditory verbal learning scores are associated with conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease
Pearson, M. J., Wagstaff, R. A., Williams, R. J., & Initiative, A. D. N. (2024) · Brain and Behavior · doi:10.1002/brb3.3611 · Cited by 11
“Conversion rates of 24% and 34% from meta-analyses performed in different countries have been reported (McGrattan et al., 2022; Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
Background
Facing the new diagnostic and treatment options of Alzheimer's disease: The necessity of informed consent
Karneboge, J. N., Haberstroh, J., Geschke, K., Perry, J., Radenbach, K., Jessen, F., & Rostamzadeh, A. (2024) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.14204 · Cited by 11
The Use of Home-Based Nonimmersive Virtual Reality to Encourage Physical and Cognitive Exercise in People With Mild Cognitive Impairment: A Feasibility Study
Sheehy, L., Sveistrup, H., Knoefel, F. D., Taillon‐Hobson, A., Martin, T., Egan, M. Y., Bilodeau, M., Welch, V. A., Yang, C. P., & Finestone, H. M. (2021) · Journal of Aging and Physical Activity · doi:10.1123/japa.2021-0043 · Cited by 11
Radial peripapillary vessel density as early biomarker in preperimetric glaucoma and amnestic mild cognitive impairment
Montorio, D., Criscuolo, C., Breve, M. A., Lanzillo, R., Salvatore, E., Morra, V. B., & Cennamo, G. (2022) · Graefe s Archive for Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology · doi:10.1007/s00417-022-05561-5 · Cited by 11
“Mild cognitive impairment (MCI), in particular, is a condition of cognitive decline that does not completely compromise daily functions [11, 12].”
Background
Vitamin and mineral supplementation for maintaining cognitive function in cognitively healthy people in mid life
Denton, D. A., Abraham, R. P., Al-Assaf, A. S., Rutjes, A. W., Chong, L. Y., Anderson, J. L., Malik, M., & Tabet, N. (2015) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd011904 · Cited by 11
The Association Between Acquired Color Deficiency and PET Imaging of Neurodegeneration in Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer Disease
Vidal, K. M., Decleva, D., Barboni, M., Nagy, B., de Menezes, P. A. H., Aher, A. J., Coutinho, A., Squarzoni, P., Faria, D. D. P., Duran, F. L. D. S., et al. (2022) · Investigative Ophthalmology and Visual Science · doi:10.1167/iovs.63.5.20 · Cited by 12
“56 Thus, the fact that a milder color vision loss was found in the MCI compared with the AD group agrees with the morphologi-Color cal observation that the RNFL thicknesses in patients with MCI is intermediate between those of normal subjects and patients with AD.”
Vascular Factors in Patients with Midlife Sensorineural Hearing Loss and the Progression to Mild Cognitive Impairment
VECCHIO, V. D., Tricarico, L., Pisani, A., Serra, N., D’Errico, D., Corso, E. D., Rea, T., Picciotti, P. M., Laria, C., Manna, G., et al. (2023) · Medicina · doi:10.3390/medicina59030481 · Cited by 11
“In fact, MCI is considered a prodromal stage that confers a high risk of developing dementia within 3 years [14,15].”
Background
Dietary interventions for prevention of dementia in people with mild cognitive impairment
Tang, E. Y. H., Harrison, S. L., Albanese, E., Gorman, T. J., Rutjes, A. W., Siervo, M., & Stephan, B. C. M. (2015) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd011909 · Cited by 10
Dementia and Cancer: A Review of the Literature and Current Practice
Solomons, L. C., Solomons, J., & Gosney, M. (2013) · Aging Health · doi:10.2217/ahe.13.27 · Cited by 11
Clinical Conversion or Reversion of Mild Cognitive Impairment in Community versus Hospital Based Studies: GDEMCIS (Gwangju Dementia and Mild Cognitive Impairment Study) and CREDOS (Clinical Research Center for Dementia of South Korea)
Roh, H. W., Hong, C. H., Lee, Y., Lee, K. S., Chang, K. J., Kang, D. R., Lee, J.-D., Choi, S. H., Kim, S. Y., Na, D. L., et al. (2016) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-160341 · Cited by 11
The Proactive Self in Space: How Egocentric and Allocentric Spatial Impairments Contribute to Anosognosia in Alzheimer’s Disease
Serino, S., & Riva, G. (2016) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-160676 · Cited by 11
“, [91]), but it is crucial to underline that although”
Effects of physical activity on delayed memory measures in randomized controlled trials with nonclinical older, mild cognitive impairment, and dementia participants
Gasquoine, P. G. (2018) · Journal of Clinical and Experimental Neuropsychology · doi:10.1080/13803395.2018.1442815 · Cited by 15
“MCI is conceptualized as an intermediate stage between nonclinical aging and dementia, although the likelihood of an older person with MCI showing further neurocognitive deterioration into dementia is far from certain (Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
Background
The items in the Chinese version of the Montreal cognitive assessment basic discriminate among different severities of Alzheimer’s disease
Zhang, Y.-R., Ding, Y., Chen, K., Liu, Y., Wei, C., Zhai, T., Wang, W., & Dong, W. (2019) · BMC Neurology · doi:10.1186/s12883-019-1513-1 · Cited by 11
Mild cognitive impairment and receipt of procedures for acute ischemic stroke in older adults
Levine, D. A., Gałecki, A. T., Kabeto, M. U., Nallamothu, B. K., Zahuranec, D. B., Morgenstern, L. B., Lisabeth, L. D., Giordani, B., & Langa, K. M. (2020) · Journal of Stroke and Cerebrovascular Diseases · doi:10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2020.105083 · Cited by 11
Innovation Inspired by COVID: A Virtual Treatment Program for Patients With Mild Cognitive Impairment at Mayo Clinic
Locke, D. E. C., Khayoun, R., Shandera‐Ochsner, A. L., Cuc, A., Eilertsen, J., Caselli, M., Abrew, K., & Chandler, M. J. (2021) · Mayo Clinic Proceedings Innovations Quality & Outcomes · doi:10.1016/j.mayocpiqo.2021.06.004 · Cited by 11
Prevalence of cognitive impairment and related risk factors incommunity-dwelling elderly in Kayseri, Turkey
Arguvanlı, S., Akın, S., Şafak, E. D., Mucuk, S., Öztürk, A., Mazıcıoğlu, M. M., Kızılçay, H. D., & Göçer, Ş. (2015) · TURKISH JOURNAL OF MEDICAL SCIENCES · doi:10.3906/sag-1406-149 · Cited by 11
Mild cognitive impairment is becoming more psychosocial
Verhey, F. R. J., & de Vugt, M. E. (2013) · Aging & Mental Health · doi:10.1080/13607863.2013.768212 · Cited by 11
“Some people with MCI remain stable or even return to normal over time, and most of the people with MCI do not progress to dementia even after 10 years (Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
Background
Differential Diagnosis of Alzheimer Disease vs. Mild Cognitive Impairment Based on Left Temporal Lateral Lobe Hypomethabolism on 18F-FDG PET/CT and Automated Classifiers
Nuvoli, S. M. F., Bianconi, F., Rondini, M., Lazzarato, A., Marongiu, A., Fravolini, M. L., Cascianelli, S., Amici, S., Filippi, L., Spanu, A., et al. (2022) · Diagnostics · doi:10.3390/diagnostics12102425 · Cited by 10
“This condition is considered high risk for AD [6]: approximately 10% of MCI cases per year progress to AD or other forms of dementia; however, a fraction of MCI patients will not develop clinical dementia, even after 10 years [5,7,8].”
Background
Validation of a Harmonised, Three-Item Cognitive Screening Instrument for the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE-Cog)
O’Donovan, M. R., Cornally, N., & Ó’Caoimh, R. (2023) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph20196869 · Cited by 12
“Ageing is also associated with other cognitive issues, which herald or predispose to the development of dementia, such as mild cognitive impairment (MCI), a minor neurocognitive disorder characterised by symptoms and observable deficits in cognition without a loss of function [4], as well as subjective memory complain…”
Background
MyCOACH (COnnected Advice for Cognitive Health): a digitally delivered multidomain intervention for cognitive decline and risk of dementia in adults with mild cognitive impairment or subjective cognitive decline–study protocol for a randomised controlled trial
Amos, J. G., Zheng, L., Eramudugolla, R., Parekh, D., Huque, M. H., Delbaere, K., Lautenschlager, N. T., & Anstey, K. J. (2023) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2023-075015 · Cited by 12
The effect of a cognitive training therapy based on stimulation of brain oscillations in patients with mild cognitive impairment in a Chilean sample: study protocol for a phase IIb, 2 × 3 mixed factorial, double-blind randomised controlled trial
Figueroa-Vargas, A., Costa, B. G., Alonso-Sánchez, M. F., Ortega, A., Soto-Fernández, P., Rivera, L. Z., Ramírez, S., González, F., Venturelli, P. M., & Billeke, P. B. (2024) · Trials · doi:10.1186/s13063-024-07972-7 · Cited by 9
Smaller cingulate grey matter mediates the association between dual-task gait and incident dementia
Ali, P., Pieruccini‐Faria, F., Annweiler, C., Dinomais, M., Son, S., Wilson, S. K., Camicioli, R. M., Hunter, S. W., Bartha, R., & Montero‐Odasso, M. (2024) · Brain · doi:10.1093/brain/awae356 · Cited by 10
Serum metabolome profiling in patients with mild cognitive impairment reveals sex differences in lipid metabolism
Escarcega, R. D., J., V. K. M., Kyriakopoulos, V. E., Ortiz, G. J., Gusdon, A. M., Fan, H., Peesh, P., Conesa, M. P. B., Colpo, G. D., Ahnstedt, H. W., et al. (2024) · Neurobiology of Disease · doi:10.1016/j.nbd.2024.106747 · Cited by 11
Dietary interventions for maintaining cognitive function in cognitively healthy people in mid life
Harrison, S. L., Birdi, R., Smart, C., Brittain, K., Rutjes, A. W., Siervo, M., & Stephan, B. C. M. (2015) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd011911 · Cited by 9
Consent to Medical Procedures of Patients with Neurodegenerative Diseases: A Comparative Study of Legal Regulations in Selected European Countries and in the United States
Guzik-Makaruk, E. M., Pływaczewski, E. W., Mroczko, P., Olesiuk-Okomska, M., & Kulczyńska‐Przybik, A. (2018) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-171176 · Cited by 10
Memory Performance and Quantitative Neuroimaging Software in Mild Cognitive Impairment: A Concurrent Validity Study
Umfleet, L. G., Butts, A. M., Janecek, J. K., Reiter, K. E., Agarwal, M., Brett, B. L., Ryan, J. J., Reuss, J. L., Klein, A. P., Correro, A. N., et al. (2020) · Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society · doi:10.1017/s1355617720000454 · Cited by 10
“Approximately half of those diagnosed with MCI convert to dementia within 5 years, with an annual conversion rate of about 10% in clinical environments (Gauthier et al., 2006; Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
Background
Apathy symptoms increase the risk of dementia conversion: a case‐matching cohort study on patients with post‐stroke mild cognitive impairment in China
Zhao, J., Jin, X., Chen, B., Fu, C., Ji, S., Shen, W., Wei, J., Zheng, H., & Zhang, Y. (2021) · Psychogeriatrics · doi:10.1111/psyg.12634 · Cited by 10
Relationship between Resting State Heart Rate Variability and Sleep Quality in Older Adults with Mild Cognitive Impairment
Grässler, B., Dordevic, M., Herold, F., Darius, S., Langhans, C., Halfpaap, N., Labott, B. K., Müller, P., Ammar, A., Thielmann, B., et al. (2021) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph182413321 · Cited by 11
“A meta-analysis showed that the annual conversion rate is about 7% from MCI to dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) [6].”
Background
Predicting Alzheimer's disease with practice effects, APOE genotype and brain metabolism
Oltra‐Cucarella, J., Sánchez‐SanSegundo, M., & Ferrer‐Cascales, R. (2022) · Neurobiology of Aging · doi:10.1016/j.neurobiolaging.2021.12.011 · Cited by 11
Vitamin and mineral supplementation for maintaining cognitive function in cognitively healthy people in late life
Al-Assaf, A. S., Denton, D. A., Abraham, R. P., Rutjes, A. W., Chong, L. Y., Anderson, J. L., Malik, M., & Tabet, N. (2015) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd011906 · Cited by 11
Exercise interventions for maintaining cognitive function in cognitively healthy people in mid life
Forbes, S. C., Forbes, D. A., Forbes, S. C., Blake, C. M., Chong, L. Y., Thiessen, E., Little, J. P., & Rutjes, A. W. (2015) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd011705 · Cited by 10
Comparative study between depression in Korean elderly with mild cognitive impairment and normal cognitive function
Shin, K., Kang, Y., Kim, M., Jung, D., & Kim, M. (2012) · Nursing and Health Sciences · doi:10.1111/j.1442-2018.2011.00666.x · Cited by 11
Screening for dementia with the Vienna Visuo-Constructional Test 3.0 screening (VVT 3.0 screening)
Valencia, N., & Lehrner, J. P. (2018) · Neuropsychiatrie · doi:10.1007/s40211-018-0279-9 · Cited by 10
Automated Volumetry of Medial Temporal Lobe Subregions in Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer Disease
Hata, K., Nakamoto, K., Nunomura, A., Sone, D., Maikusa, N., Ogawa, M., Sato, N., & Matsuda, H. (2019) · Alzheimer Disease & Associated Disorders · doi:10.1097/wad.0000000000000318 · Cited by 10
Effectiveness of interventions for dementia in low- and middle-income countries: protocol for a systematic review, pairwise and network meta-analysis
Salcher‐Konrad, M., Naci, H., McDaid, D., Alladi, S., Oliveira, D., Fry, A., Hussein, S., Knapp, M. R. J., Musyimi, C. W., Ndetei, D. M., et al. (2019) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2018-027851 · Cited by 11
Self-referential processing improves memory for narrative information in healthy aging and amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment
Carson, N., Rosenbaum, R. S., Moscovitch, M., & Murphy, K. J. (2019) · Neuropsychologia · doi:10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2019.107179 · Cited by 10
Test-retest reliability and minimal detectable change of the Contextual Memory Test in older adults with and without mild cognitive impairment
Liao, W.-W., Wu, C., Liu, C., Lin, S.-H., Chiau, H.-Y., & Chen, C. (2020) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0236654 · Cited by 11
Mild cognitive impairment in Aboriginal Australians
Derrig, H., Lavrencic, L. M., Broe, G. A., Draper, B., Cumming, R. G., Garvey, G., Hill, T. Y., Daylight, G., Chalkley, S., Mack, H. A., et al. (2020) · Alzheimer s & Dementia Translational Research & Clinical Interventions · doi:10.1002/trc2.12054 · Cited by 10
Connecting Mind-Body Therapy-Mediated Effects to Pathological Features of Alzheimer’s Disease
Hüttenrauch, M., López‐Noguerola, J. S., & Castro‐Obregón, S. (2020) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-200743 · Cited by 10
Predicting Amyloid Pathology in Mild Cognitive Impairment Using Radiomics Analysis of Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Park, Y. W., Initiative, A. D. N., Choi, D., Park, M., Ahn, S. J., Ahn, S. S., Suh, S. H., & Lee, S. (2020) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-200734 · Cited by 10
“(1) The identification of MCI patients at risk for dementia due to AD is of utmost importance for prediction of”
Z-score neurofeedback, heart rate variability biofeedback, and brain coaching for older adults with memory concerns
Meeuwsen, K. D., Groeneveld, K. M., Walker, L. A., Mennenga, A. M., Tittle, R. K., & White, E. K. (2020) · Restorative Neurology and Neuroscience · doi:10.3233/rnn-201053 · Cited by 14
“Individuals with MCI are at an increased risk of conversion to dementia, compared to older adults with no cognitive concerns (Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
Background

Authors: Mitchell, A. J., & Shiri‐Feshki, M.
Affiliations: University of Leicester (GB)
Nottinghamshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust (GB)
Corresponding author: Mitchell, A. J.
ORCID: Mitchell, A. J.
Venue: Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2009-03-03
Volume: 119
Issue: 4
Pages: 252-265
ISSN: 0001-690X (ISSN-L)
1600-0447
DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0447.2008.01326.x
OpenAlex: W2052226124
Cited by: 1,659
References: 87
Citations by year: 2026: 84 · 2025: 98 · 2024: 135 · 2023: 118 · 2022: 129 · 2021: 176 · 2020: 165 · 2019: 115 · 2018: 96 · 2017: 86 · 2016: 88 · 2015: 85 · 2014: 62 · 2013: 75 · 2012: 55
FWCI: 5.80
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Cancer-related cognitive impairment studies
Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Neurology › Neurological Disease Mechanisms and Treatments
Keywords: mild cognitive impairment, dementia progression, Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, Mayo criteria
MeSH terms: Aged, Alzheimer Disease, Cognition Disorders, Dementia, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Middle Aged, Neuropsychological Tests, Severity of Illness Index, Dementia, Vascular, Cohort Studies, Prevalence, Disease Progression

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Rate of progression of mild cognitive impairment to dementia – meta‐analysis of 41 robust inception cohort studies

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