Cited by 1,659Dementia and Cognitive Impairment ResearchCancer-related cognitive impairment studiesNeurological Disease Mechanisms and Treatments

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Rate of progression of mild cognitive impairment to dementia – meta‐analysis of 41 robust inception cohort studies

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Mitchell, A. J., Shiri‐Feshki, M.·2009·Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica

DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0447.2008.01326.x

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Abstract

Objective: To quantify the risk of developing dementia in those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Method: Meta‐analysis of inception cohort studies. Results: Forty‐one robust cohort studies were identified. To avoid heterogeneity clinical studies, population studies and clinical trials were analysed separately. Using Mayo defined MCI at baseline and adjusting for sample size, the cumulative proportion who progressed to dementia, to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and to vascular dementia (VaD) was 39.2%, 33.6% and 6.2%, respectively in specialist settings and 21.9%, 28.9% and 5.2%, respectively in population studies. The adjusted annual conversion rate (ACR) from Mayo defined MCI to dementia, AD and VaD was 9.6%, 8.1% and 1.9%, respectively in specialist clinical settings and 4.9%, 6.8% and 1.6% in community studies. Figures from non‐Mayo defined MCI and clinical trials are also reported. Conclusion: The ACR is approximately 5–10% and most people with MCI will not progress to dementia even after 10 years of follow‐up.

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Verbal and spatial memory spans in mild cognitive impairment
Tollis, M. D., Simone, M. S. D., Perri, R., Fadda, L., Caltagirone, C., & Carlesimo, G. A. (2021) · Acta Neurologica Scandinavica · doi:10.1111/ane.13470 · Cited by 26
Better Identification of Cognitive Decline With Interleukin-2 Than With Amyloid and Tau Protein Biomarkers in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment
Liang, C., Tsai, C., Lin, G., Lee, J., Lin, Y., Chu, C., Sung, Y., Tsai, C., Yeh, T., Chu, H., et al. (2021) · Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnagi.2021.670115 · Cited by 29
“However, many patients may not progress to dementia when followed up after 10 years (Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki, 2009), implying that patients diagnosed with aMCI may live with uncertainty for a long time (Langa and Levine, 2014).”
Background
Frailty and functional brain connectivity (FBC) in older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI): baseline results from the SYNERGIC Trial
Bray, N. W., Pieruccini‐Faria, F., Witt, S. T., Rockwood, K. J., Bartha, R., Doherty, T. J., Nagamatsu, L. S., Almeida, Q. J., Liu-Ambrose, T. Y. L., Middleton, L. E., et al. (2022) · GeroScience · doi:10.1007/s11357-022-00702-4 · Cited by 29
Predictors of Future Cognitive Decline in Persons with Mild Cognitive Impairment
Xie, H., Mayo, N., & Koski, L. (2011) · Dementia and Geriatric Cognitive Disorders · doi:10.1159/000334996 · Cited by 26
Cognitive decline: the relevance of diabetes, hyperlipidaemia and hypertension
Etgen, T., Sander, D., Bickel, H., Sander, K., & Förstl, H. (2010) · The British Journal of Diabetes · doi:10.1177/1474651410368408 · Cited by 26
“The progression rate from MCI into dementia is estimated at about 5–10% per year.(4) Recent preventative strategies include the identification of risk factors and predictors among patients with rapid cognitive decline (MCI-plus).”
Background
The Mental Activity and eXercise (MAX) trial: Effects on physical function and quality of life among older adults with cognitive complaints
Middleton, L. E., Ventura, M. I., Santos‐Modesitt, W., Poelke, G., Yaffe, K. S., & Barnes, D. E. (2017) · Contemporary Clinical Trials · doi:10.1016/j.cct.2017.10.009 · Cited by 26
Associations of health behaviors, food preferences, and obesity patterns with the incidence of mild cognitive impairment in the middle-aged and elderly population: An 18-year cohort study
Feng, T., Feng, Z., Jiang, L., Yu, Q., & Liu, K. (2020) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2020.06.038 · Cited by 27
Do CSF biomarkers help clinicians predict the progression of mild cognitive impairment to dementia?
Mitchell, A. J., Monge-Argilés, J. A., & Sánchez–Payá, J. (2010) · Practical Neurology · doi:10.1136/jnnp.2010.217778 · Cited by 26
Self-citation
Improving medication adherence among community-dwelling seniors with cognitive impairment: a systematic review of interventions
Kröger, E., Tatar, O., Vedel, I., Giguère, A. M. C., Voyer, P., Guillaumie, L., Grégoire, J.-P., & Guénette, L. (2017) · International Journal of Clinical Pharmacy · doi:10.1007/s11096-017-0487-6 · Cited by 23
Präventionsstrategien gegen Demenz
Müller, P., Schmicker, M., & Müller, N. G. (2017) · Zeitschrift für Gerontologie und Geriatrie · doi:10.1007/s00391-017-1202-x · Cited by 25
Correlates of psychological distress in study partners of older people with and without mild cognitive impairment (MCI) – the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study
Seeher, K. M., Low, L., Reppermund, S., Slavin, M. J., Draper, B., Kang, K., Kochan, N. A., Trollor, J. N., Sachdev, P. S., & Brodaty, H. (2014) · Aging & Mental Health · doi:10.1080/13607863.2013.875123 · Cited by 25
Modifiable Risk Factor Possession Patterns of Dementia in Elderly with MCI: A 4-Year Repeated Measures Study
Katayama, O., Lee, S., Bae, S., Makino, K., Shinkai, Y., Chiba, I., Harada, K., & Shimada, H. (2020) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm9041076 · Cited by 25
Meta-Analysis of Memory-Focused Training and Multidomain Interventions in Mild Cognitive Impairment
Sherman, D. S., Durbin, K. A., & Ross, D. M. (2020) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-200261 · Cited by 24
Neuropsychological profile of amyloid‐positive versus amyloid‐negative amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment
Alves, L., Cardoso, S., Silva, D., Mendes, T., Marôco, J. P., Nogueira, J., Lima, M., Tábuas‐Pereira, M., Baldeiras, I., Santana, I. J., et al. (2020) · Journal of Neuropsychology · doi:10.1111/jnp.12218 · Cited by 25
“Patients diagnosed with aMCI in a clinical setting have about 10% annual progression rate of conversion to dementia, usually AD (Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
Background
Früherkennung der Alzheimer-Krankheit und Demenzprädiktion bei Patienten mit leichter kognitiver Störung
Rostamzadeh, A., & Jessen, F. (2020) · Der Nervenarzt · doi:10.1007/s00115-020-00907-y · Cited by 29
Association of lysophosphatidic acids with cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers and progression to Alzheimer’s disease
Ahmad, S., Orellana, A., Köhler, I., Frölich, L., de Rojas, I., Gil, S., Boada, M., Hernández, I., Hausner, L., Bakker, M. H. M., et al. (2020) · Alzheimer s Research & Therapy · doi:10.1186/s13195-020-00680-9 · Cited by 27
Cognitive Phenotypes of Older Adults with Subjective Cognitive Decline and Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment: The Czech Brain Aging Study
Jester, D. J., Andel, R., Čechová, K., Laczó, J., Lerch, O., Marková, H., Nikolai, T., Vyhnálek, M., & Hort, J. (2020) · Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society · doi:10.1017/s1355617720001046 · Cited by 25
“From a meta-analysis that examined aMCI, the annual progression rate to dementia was estimated at 12% (Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
Background
Differences between memory encoding and retrieval failure in mild cognitive impairment: results from quantitative electroencephalography and magnetic resonance volumetry
Han, S., Pyun, J., Yeo, S., Kang, D. W., Jeong, H. T., Kang, S. W., Kim, S., & Youn, Y. C. (2021) · Alzheimer s Research & Therapy · doi:10.1186/s13195-020-00739-7 · Cited by 25
Biomarker-Based Risk Prediction of Alzheimer’s Disease Dementia in Mild Cognitive Impairment: Psychosocial, Ethical, and Legal Aspects
Rostamzadeh, A., Schwegler, C., Gil‐Navarro, S., Rosende‐Roca, M., Romotzky, V., Ortega, G., Cañabate, P., Moreno, M., Schmitz‐Luhn, B., Boada, M., et al. (2021) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-200484 · Cited by 25
Risk factors for the progression of motoric cognitive risk syndrome to dementia: Retrospective cohort analysis of two populations
Meiner, Z., Ayers, E. I., Bennett, D. A., Wang, C., & Verghese, J. (2021) · European Journal of Neurology · doi:10.1111/ene.14841 · Cited by 25
“We selected demographic, medical illnesses, mood, lifestyle and genetic variables as predictors of transition to dementia based on data availability in the cohorts as well as previously reported associations of these variables with risk of developing MCR [1] or those reported as predictors of transition to dementia in…”
Method
Can cochlear implantation prevent cognitive decline in the long-term follow-up?
Völter, C., Götze, L., Kamin, S. T., Haubitz, I., Dazert, S., & Thomas, J. P. (2022) · Frontiers in Neurology · doi:10.3389/fneur.2022.1009087 · Cited by 28
“This is highly relevant because it takes a couple of years for mild cognitive impairment to develop into dementia (45) and it is hard to differentiate healthy physiological aging from a pathological process (41) because there is a huge variability in cognitive performance in age (40) and cognitive decline is (a) influ…”
Background
Challenges and opportunities of diagnostic markers of Alzheimer's disease based on structural magnetic resonance imaging
Hu, X., Meier, M., & Pruessner, J. C. (2023) · Brain and Behavior · doi:10.1002/brb3.2925 · Cited by 24
“It has further been suggested that the conversion rate within 1 year lies above 10% (Petersen et al., 2001), although a recent meta-analysis argued that the conversion rate might be less than 10% (Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
Background
Informing Understandings of Mild Cognitive Impairment for Older Adults: Implications From a Scoping Review
Fang, M. L., Coatta, K., Badger, M., Wu, S., Easton, M., Nygård, L., Astell, A. J., & Sixsmith, A. J. (2015) · Journal of Applied Gerontology · doi:10.1177/0733464815589987 · Cited by 31
“…treatment options (Albert et al., 2011; Beard & Neary, 2013; Costa, Caltagirone, & Carlesimo, 2011; Flicker, Ferris, & Reisberg, 1991; Ganguli et al., 2014; Jelic et al., 2006; McKhann et al., 2011; Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009; Moreira et al., 2009; Moretti et al., 2012; Wolk et al., 2009).”
BackgroundMethod
Efeito da estimulação cognitiva em Idosos
Apóstolo, J., Cardoso, D., Marta, L. M. G., & Amaral, T. (2011) · Revista de Enfermagem Referência · doi:10.12707/riii11104 · Cited by 25
Sex differences in cognitive training effects of patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment
Rahe, J., Liesk, J., Rosen, J. B., Petrelli, A., Kaesberg, S., Onur, O. A., Kessler, J., Fink, G. R., & Kalbe, E. (2015) · Aging Neuropsychology and Cognition · doi:10.1080/13825585.2015.1028883 · Cited by 29
“…aged over 65 years (Petersen, 2011), and as MCI in many cases also constitutes a prodromal state of dementia (with conversion rates of 5–15% per year (Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009; Petersen, 2004) and long-term conversion rates of up to 80% (Petersen et al., 2001), efficient intervention…”
Background
Functional Connectivity in the Default Mode Network is Reduced in Association with Nocturnal Awakening in Mild Cognitive Impairment
McKinnon, A. C., Duffy, S. L., Cross, N. E., Terpening, Z., Grunstein, R. R., Lagopoulos, J., Batchelor, J., Hickie, I. B., Lewis, S. J. G., Shine, J. M., et al. (2017) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-160922 · Cited by 25
Psychometric and diagnostic properties of the Taiwan version of the Quick Mild Cognitive Impairment screen
Lee, M.-T., Chang, W.-Y., & Jang, Y. (2018) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0207851 · Cited by 26
A Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Dementia and Mild Cognitive Impairment
Stamate, D., Alghambdi, W., Ogg, J., Hoile, R., & Murtagh, F. D. (2018) · International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications · doi:10.1109/icmla.2018.00107 · Cited by 25
“Additionally, those that are diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), while having a substantially higher risk of developing dementia [3], can either become cognitively stable or return to a healthy cognitive norm [4].”
Background
Economic Impact of Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer Disease in the United States
Frech, F. H., Li, G., Juday, T., Ding, Y., Mattke, S., Khachaturian, A., Rosenberg, A. S., Ndiba-Markey, C., Rava, A., Batrla, R., et al. (2024) · The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease · doi:10.14283/jpad.2024.68 · Cited by 24
“Not all individuals with MCI go on to develop AD or other forms of dementia disorders (6, 7).”
Non-linear relationship of serum albumin-to-globulin ratio and cognitive function in American older people: a cross-sectional national health and nutrition examination survey 2011–2014 (NHANES) study
Yang, H., Liao, Z., Zhou, Y., Gao, Z., & Mao, Y. (2024) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2024.1375379 · Cited by 25
Efficacy of a computerized cognitive training application for older adults with and without memory impairments
Maseda, A., Millán-Calentí, J. C., Lorenzo‐López, L., & Núñez‐Naveira, L. (2013) · Aging Clinical and Experimental Research · doi:10.1007/s40520-013-0070-5 · Cited by 24
“More severe or consistent memory decline has been classified as mild cognitive impairment (MCI) [4] and may indicate the early stages of a condition such as dementia, given the substantial magnitude of the annual conversion rate of MCI to dementia [5].”
Background
Cardiac rehabilitation and its effects on cognition in patients with coronary artery disease and heart failure
Alagiakrishnan, K., Mah, D., & Gyenes, G. T. (2018) · Expert Review of Cardiovascular Therapy · doi:10.1080/14779072.2018.1510318 · Cited by 24
“Patients with MCI are at high risk of dementia, likely due to shared vascular risk factors [20,21].”
Background
Nocturnal Hypoxemia Is Associated with Altered Parahippocampal Functional Brain Connectivity in Older Adults at Risk for Dementia
Naismith, S. L., Duffy, S. L., Cross, N. E., Grunstein, R. R., Terpening, Z., Hoyos, C. M., D'Rozario, A. L., Lagopoulos, J., Osorio, R. S., Shine, J. M., et al. (2019) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-190747 · Cited by 26
Detecting cognitive decline in community‐dwelling older adults using simple cognitive and motor performance tests
Tomita, Y., Tanaka, S., Takahashi, S., & Takeuchi, N. (2020) · Geriatrics and gerontology international/Geriatrics & gerontology international · doi:10.1111/ggi.13863 · Cited by 24
Predicting the Prognosis of MCI Patients Using Longitudinal MRI Data
Er, F. C., & Goularas, D. (2020) · IEEE Transactions on Computational Biology and Bioinformatics · doi:10.1109/tcbb.2020.3017872 · Cited by 24
“However, neurological studies showed that some individuals with MCI develop AD [2].”
Background
Interrater agreement in dementia diagnosis: A systematic review and meta‐analysis
Cerullo, E., Quinn, T., McCleery, J. M., Vounzoulaki, E., Cooper, N. J., & Sutton, A. J. (2021) · International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/gps.5499 · Cited by 23
Virtual reality-based monitoring test for MCI: A multicenter feasibility study
Jang, S., Choi, S., Son, S. J., Oh, J., Ha, J.-H., Kim, W. J., Roh, H. W., Kim, K. Y., Lee, S., Jung, E.-J., et al. (2023) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2022.1057513 · Cited by 24
“Attention was evaluated by (1) listening to the phone number and making a phone call, (2) identifying the word syllable backward, and (3) helping the granddaughter choose desired rides in order in the playground.”
BackgroundMethod
Differences in learning rates for item and associative memories between amnestic mild cognitive impairment and healthy controls
Wang, P., Li, J., Li, H., & Zhang, S. (2013) · Behavioral and Brain Functions · doi:10.1186/1744-9081-9-29 · Cited by 24
“A meta-analysis indicated that the annual conversion rate from MCI to dementia is approximately 5–10% [3], which is obviously higher than the incidence rates form normal elderly to dementia (1–2% per year) [1].”
Background
Genetic Testing in Combination with Preventive Donepezil Treatment for Patients with Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment
Djalalov, S., Yong, J. H. E., Beca, J. M., Black, S. E., Saposnik, G., Musa, Z., Siminovitch, K. A., Moretti, M. E., & Hoch, J. S. (2012) · Molecular Diagnosis & Therapy · doi:10.1007/s40291-012-0010-7 · Cited by 24
“1%), estimated from a metaanalysis of rates of progression from MCI to AD, which included 29 robust inception cohort studies [24].”
Background
Lower Choline and Myo-Inositol in Temporo-Parietal Cortex Is Associated With Apathy in Amnestic MCI
Tumati, S., Opmeer, E. M., Marsman, J.-B. C., Martens, S., Reesink, F. E., Deyn, P. P. D., & Aleman, A. (2018) · Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnagi.2018.00106 · Cited by 24
“…to AD, other outcomes such as development of frontotemporal dementia and diﬀuse lewy body dementia, stable aMCI (i.e., without further worsening) or even reversion to normal cognitive function may occur (Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki, 2009) and need to be considered when interpreting the results.”
Background
Detection of early changes in the parahippocampal and posterior cingulum bundles during mild cognitive impairment by using high-resolution multi-parametric diffusion tensor imaging
Ito, K., Sasaki, M., Takahashi, J., Uwano, I., Yamashita, F., Higuchi, S., Goodwin, J., Harada, T., Kudo, K., & Terayama, Y. (2015) · Psychiatry Research: Neuroimaging · doi:10.1016/j.pscychresns.2015.01.020 · Cited by 26
“, 2006), which is nine times higher than the conversion rate for healthy elderly individuals (Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
Limited generalizability and high risk of bias in multivariable models predicting conversion risk from mild cognitive impairment to dementia: A systematic review
Vermeulen, R. J., Andersson, V., Banken, J., Hannink, G., Govers, T. M., Rovers, M. M., & Rikkert, M. O. (2025) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.70069 · Cited by 25
Associations between performance of activities of daily living and everyday technology use among older adults with mild stage Alzheimer’s disease or mild cognitive impairment
Ryd, C., Nygård, L., Malinowsky, C. W., Öhman, A., & Kottorp, A. (2014) · Scandinavian Journal of Occupational Therapy · doi:10.3109/11038128.2014.964307 · Cited by 23
“Among those who convert the most common cause of dementia is AD (15).”
Background
Root canal treatment in elderly patients
AlRahabi, M. K. (2019) · Saudi Medical Journal · doi:10.15537/smj.2019.3.23769 · Cited by 25

Authors: Mitchell, A. J., & Shiri‐Feshki, M.
Affiliations: University of Leicester (GB)
Nottinghamshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust (GB)
Corresponding author: Mitchell, A. J.
ORCID: Mitchell, A. J.
Venue: Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2009-03-03
Volume: 119
Issue: 4
Pages: 252-265
ISSN: 0001-690X (ISSN-L)
1600-0447
DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0447.2008.01326.x
OpenAlex: W2052226124
Cited by: 1,659
References: 87
Citations by year: 2026: 84 · 2025: 98 · 2024: 135 · 2023: 118 · 2022: 129 · 2021: 176 · 2020: 165 · 2019: 115 · 2018: 96 · 2017: 86 · 2016: 88 · 2015: 85 · 2014: 62 · 2013: 75 · 2012: 55
FWCI: 5.80
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Cancer-related cognitive impairment studies
Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Neurology › Neurological Disease Mechanisms and Treatments
Keywords: mild cognitive impairment, dementia progression, Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, Mayo criteria
MeSH terms: Aged, Alzheimer Disease, Cognition Disorders, Dementia, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Middle Aged, Neuropsychological Tests, Severity of Illness Index, Dementia, Vascular, Cohort Studies, Prevalence, Disease Progression

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Rate of progression of mild cognitive impairment to dementia – meta‐analysis of 41 robust inception cohort studies

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