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Rate of progression of mild cognitive impairment to dementia – meta‐analysis of 41 robust inception cohort studies
Open accessAbstract
Objective: To quantify the risk of developing dementia in those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Method: Meta‐analysis of inception cohort studies. Results: Forty‐one robust cohort studies were identified. To avoid heterogeneity clinical studies, population studies and clinical trials were analysed separately. Using Mayo defined MCI at baseline and adjusting for sample size, the cumulative proportion who progressed to dementia, to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and to vascular dementia (VaD) was 39.2%, 33.6% and 6.2%, respectively in specialist settings and 21.9%, 28.9% and 5.2%, respectively in population studies. The adjusted annual conversion rate (ACR) from Mayo defined MCI to dementia, AD and VaD was 9.6%, 8.1% and 1.9%, respectively in specialist clinical settings and 4.9%, 6.8% and 1.6% in community studies. Figures from non‐Mayo defined MCI and clinical trials are also reported. Conclusion: The ACR is approximately 5–10% and most people with MCI will not progress to dementia even after 10 years of follow‐up.
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“Individuals diagnosed with MCI are a heterogeneous group, with only about 30 % of them developing Alzheimer’s dementia within 3 years after clinical MCI diagnosis [8].”
From Psychotherapeutic interventions in individuals at risk for Alzheimer’s dementia: a systematic review (2022) · cites this paper as [8]
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MethodClassification and Epidemiology of MCI
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“…studies of MCI patients with a minimal longitudinal follow up of 3 years, annual conversion rate to AD was estimated around 7% for MCI and almost 12% for amnestic MCI, while relative risk of AD (as compared to cognitively normal individuals) was around 9-fold (Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
BackgroundDietary ketosis enhances memory in mild cognitive impairment
Krikorian, R., Shidler, M. D., Dangelo, K. N., Couch, S. C., Benoit, S. C., & Clegg, D. J. (2010) · Neurobiology of Aging · doi:10.1016/j.neurobiolaging.2010.10.006 · Cited by 370
“Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) is a clinical construct that identifies individuals with increased risk for dementia and represents the first manifestation of neurodegeneration for a substantial subset of individuals who will progress to AD (Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki, 2009; Petersen, 2004).”
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“One moderate-quality systematic review examined the risk of conversion from MCI to AD (Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
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“The construct mild cognitive impairment((3)) identifies individuals with elevated risk for dementia((4)), and progression from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer’s disease can be as high as 10 % per year((5)).”
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Depression, Anxiety, and Apathy in Mild Cognitive Impairment: Current Perspectives
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“aMCI results in memory deficits that do not impair normal daily activities [60,61], and may be prodromal to AD [62], that is a progressive neurodegenerative disease characterized by irreversible memory loss, cognitive decline, and deterioration of emotional control, daily routines, and social function [63].”
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“…are at higher risk of progressing to Alzheimer’s disease than cognitively unimpaired elderly individuals (Petersen, 2004; Gauthier et al., 2006; Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki, 2009), only those MCI subjects who also exhibit a high amyloid-b accumulation are believed to represent a prodromal…”
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“A significant number of individuals with MCI remain cognitively unchanged or return to normal cognition status.(10,14,15) Behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia are complications of dementia.”
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Outcomes of Mild Cognitive Impairment by Definition
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“Although longer prospective studies usually report annual progression rates averaged over multiple years,(5,8,12,14) the annual rate changes over time.(12) Repeated assessments of this cohort over a longer follow-up period will clarify these patterns and identify the profiles of individuals whose mild impairments are…”
Shaw, L. M., Arias, J., Blennow, K., Galasko, D., Molinuevo, J. L., Salloway, S., Schindler, S., Carrillo, M. C., Hendrix, J. A., Ross, A., et al. (2018) · Alzheimer's & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2018.07.220 · Cited by 266
“Many studies have shown that MCI is associated with an increased risk of progression to dementia [113] and that different subtypes of MCI may have different risks; for example, amnestic MCImay have a higher risk of progression toAD than nonamnestic MCI [114].”
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“These findings are in contrast to those reported for MCI in the general population, in which the majority of patients will not progress to dementia even after 10 years of follow-up.(26) Using total DRS-2 score to control for global cognitive performance at baseline, demographic predictors of progression to cognitive i…”
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The clinical characteristics of dementia with Lewy bodies and a consideration of prodromal diagnosis
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“People with MCI are at increased risk of developing dementia [14], leading to MCI being considered a prodromal phase of dementia [15].”
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Krikorian, R., Boespflug, E. L., Fleck, D. E., Stein, A. L., Wightman, J. D., Shidler, M. D., & Sadat-Hossieny, S. (2012) · Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry · doi:10.1021/jf300277g · Cited by 255
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“Other aetiologies for amnestic MCI are possible (Petersen and Negash, 2008), but the amnestic MCI criteria used here, namely, single-domain amnestic MCI (Petersen and Negash, 2008), defines the most specific clinical entity for the early stage of Alzheimer’s disease (Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
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Simon, S. S., Yokomizo, J. E., & Bottino, C. M. C. (2012) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2012.01.007 · Cited by 263
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“MCI defines a risk group, not a disease state, and in fact, many individuals with MCI do not progress to dementia or AD (Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009); these individuals probably do not have a brain disease.”
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“Only a fraction of MCI patients progress to clinical AD over 5–10 years, and a recent meta-analysis concluded that the majority of MCI patients will not progress to dementia even after 10 years follow-up [114].”
Canevelli, M., Grande, G., Lacorte, E., Quarchioni, E., Cesari, M., Mariani, C., Bruno, G., & Vanacore, N. (2016) · Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · doi:10.1016/j.jamda.2016.06.020 · Cited by 226
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“8% in specialist and community settings, respectively [8].”
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Political drive to screen for pre-dementia: not evidence based and ignores the harms of diagnosis
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Nonamnestic mild cognitive impairment progresses to dementia with Lewy bodies
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“Approximately 16% of older adults have MCI (Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki, 2009; Petersen et al., 1999), and these older adults are at high risk of developing dementia.”
BackgroundMielke, M. M., Okonkwo, O. C., Oishi, K., Mori, S., Tighe, S. K., Miller, M. I., Ceritoglu, C., Brown, T., Albert, M., & Lyketsos, C. G. (2012) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2011.05.2416 · Cited by 220
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Neuropsychological Predictors of Conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease
Gainotti, G., Quaranta, D., Vita, M. G., & Marra, C. (2013) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-130881 · Cited by 214
Hu, C., Yu, D., Sun, X., Zhang, M., Wang, L., & Qin, H. (2017) · International Psychogeriatrics · doi:10.1017/s1041610217000473 · Cited by 209
“MCI itself was also speculated to be a heterogeneous disorder with unidentified subtypes (Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
BackgroundInfluentialLung disease as a determinant of cognitive decline and dementia
Dodd, J. W. (2015) · Alzheimer's Research & Therapy · doi:10.1186/s13195-015-0116-3 · Cited by 192
“Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is associated with a 5 to 10% annual conversion rate to dementia [1,2].”
BackgroundTheta-Gamma Coupling and Working Memory in Alzheimer’s Dementia and Mild Cognitive Impairment
Goodman, M. S., Kumar, S., Zomorrodi, R., Ghazala, Z., Cheam, A., Barr, M. S., Daskalakis, Z. J., Blumberger, D. M., Fischer, C. E., Flint, A. J., et al. (2018) · Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnagi.2018.00101 · Cited by 216
“While converging epidemiologic (Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki, 2009), neuropsychological (Petersen et al., 1999) and neurophysiologic (Jack et al., 1999; Sabbagh et al., 2010) research has established a link between MCI and AD, the underlying mechanisms associated with the progression from MCI to AD…”
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“Although up to 60% of MCI patients develop dementia within a ten-year period, many people remain cognitively stable or regain normal cognitive (NC) function [5,6].”
BackgroundMethodCognition and gait in older people
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“Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki (2009) found, in specialty settings, rates of conversion from MCI to dementia to be 39.2%, and in general population samples, to be 21.9%.”
BackgroundInfluentialAssociation between air pollutants and dementia risk in the elderly
Wu, Y., Lin, Y., Yu, H., Chen, J., Chen, T., Sun, Y., Wen, L., Yip, P., Chu, Y., & Chen, Y. (2015) · Alzheimer s & Dementia Diagnosis Assessment & Disease Monitoring · doi:10.1016/j.dadm.2014.11.015 · Cited by 187
“However, only a small portion of cognitively impaired elderly progress to dementia [19]; therefore, studies on cognitive impairment have been unable to fully”
BackgroundGraham, S. F., Chevallier, O. P., Elliott, C. T., Hölscher, C., Johnston, J. A., McGuinness, B., Kehoe, P. G., Passmore, A. P., & Green, B. D. (2015) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0119452 · Cited by 188
“MCI is heterogeneous in nature with several potential outcomes, ranging from increased risk of developing AD to restoration of normal cognition [5–7].”
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“While the condition often represents prodromal AD, patients may also progress to other dementia types, remain stable, or even revert to normal cognition(73,74).”
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Computerised cognitive training for preventing dementia in people with mild cognitive impairment
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Are Empirically-Derived Subtypes of Mild Cognitive Impairment Consistent with Conventional Subtypes?
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“Although MCI is considered a risk factor for AD, many individuals diagnosed with MCI may remain stable, progress to a non-AD dementia such as vascular dementia (VaD) (Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009), or show improvement on cognitive tests upon follow-up (Loewenstein et al., 2009).”
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“Mitchell 2009 Mitchell AJ, Shiri-Feshki M. Rate of progression of mild cognitive impairment to dementia--meta-analysis of 41 robust inception cohort studies.”
BackgroundDementia risk prediction in the population: are screening models accurate?
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“Furthermore, given that estimates of conversion to MCI and dementia vary among clinic [49–51] and community samples [49,51], the findings from this study may reflect sample characteristics specific to the NACC cohort.”
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“29 showed an annual conversion rate of 8.1% and a cumulative proportion of 33.6% for MCI conversion to dementia, although it is noted that some studies show higher proportions of conversion, and in all studies, some MCI subjects fail to progress only because of death.”
InfluentialLannfelt, L., Möller, C., Basun, H., Osswald, G., Sehlin, D., Satlin, A., Logovinsky, V., & Gellerfors, P. (2014) · Alzheimer s Research & Therapy · doi:10.1186/alzrt246 · Cited by 153
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“In our 1-year follow-up study, 15 out of 42 MCI patients (31%) converted to AD dementia, which is higher than the 8–16% expected annual risk of conversion (Landau et al., 2010; Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
Does mild cognitive impairment always lead to dementia? A review
Pandya, S. Y., Clem, M. A., Silva, L. M., & Woon, F. L. M. (2016) · Journal of the Neurological Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.jns.2016.07.055 · Cited by 160
“A meta-analysis of 41MCI studies, usingMayo Clinic criteria [32,34], identified the annual progression rate to dementia from MCI as 10% in clinical settings (8% of the entire sample progressed to AD) and 5% in community settings (7% of the entire sample progressed to AD) [26], suggesting that the annual MCI progressio…”
Weissberger, G. H., Strong, J. V., Stefanidis, K. B., Summers, M. J., Bondi, M. W., & Stricker, N. H. (2017) · Neuropsychology Review · doi:10.1007/s11065-017-9360-6 · Cited by 169
“In addition, some individuals diagnosed with MCI revert back to normal, or never convert to AD (Klekociuk et al. 2014; Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki 2009; Summers and Saunders 2012), thus suggesting that these individuals may represent false positives and are not representative of early Alzheimer’s…”
BackgroundDiagnosing Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) in clinical trials: a systematic review
Stephan, B. C. M., Minett, T., Pagett, E., Siervo, M., Brayne, C., & McKeith, I. G. (2013) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2012-001909 · Cited by 154
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“Since AD dementia constitutes only one of the possible clinical outcomes for MCI condition (Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki, 2009), data on validated biomarker accuracy for risk progression to different dementias in a large prodromal MCI sample are necessary, and currently lacking.”
BackgroundInfluentialPlasma microRNA biomarkers for detection of mild cognitive impairment: Biomarker Validation Study
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“Since a large number of MCI patients will progress to AD dementia [24-26], it is reasonable to suggest that these biomarker pairs detect early stages of AD as well, although they do not differentiate AD from MCI caused by other conditions.”
BackgroundCost-effectiveness of Aducanumab and Donanemab for Early Alzheimer Disease in the US
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“…subjective cognitive decline or Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) present with AD biomarkers (e.g., neurodegeneration, Meiberth et al., 2015, Spulber et al., 2012; amyloid burden, Amariglio et al., 2012) and some will go on to develop AD or another type of dementia (Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
BackgroundHerukka, S.-K., Simonsen, A. H., Andreasen, N., Baldeiras, I., Bjerke, M., Blennow, K., Engelborghs, S., Frisoni, G. B., Gabryelewicz, T., Galluzzi, S., et al. (2017) · Alzheimer's & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2016.09.009 · Cited by 141
“Approximately 35% of MCI patients progress to AD dementia within a 3year follow-up with an annual conversion rate of 5%–10% [5].”
Ganguli, M., Fu, B., Snitz, B. E., Hughes, T. F., & Chang, C. H. (2013) · Neurology · doi:10.1212/wnl.0b013e318295d776 · Cited by 150
Metadata
- Authors
- Mitchell, A. J., & Shiri‐Feshki, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Leicester (GB)
- Nottinghamshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Mitchell, A. J.
- ORCID
- Mitchell, A. J.
- Venue
- Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2009-03-03
- Volume
- 119
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 252-265
- ISSN
- 0001-690X (ISSN-L)
- 1600-0447
- OpenAlex
- W2052226124
- Cited by
- 1,659
- References
- 87
- Citations by year
- 2026: 84 · 2025: 98 · 2024: 135 · 2023: 118 · 2022: 129 · 2021: 176 · 2020: 165 · 2019: 115 · 2018: 96 · 2017: 86 · 2016: 88 · 2015: 85 · 2014: 62 · 2013: 75 · 2012: 55
- FWCI
- 5.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Cancer-related cognitive impairment studies
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Neurology › Neurological Disease Mechanisms and Treatments
- Keywords
- mild cognitive impairment, dementia progression, Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, Mayo criteria
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Alzheimer Disease, Cognition Disorders, Dementia, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Middle Aged, Neuropsychological Tests, Severity of Illness Index, Dementia, Vascular, Cohort Studies, Prevalence, Disease Progression
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