Cited by 1,659Dementia and Cognitive Impairment ResearchCancer-related cognitive impairment studiesNeurological Disease Mechanisms and Treatments

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Rate of progression of mild cognitive impairment to dementia – meta‐analysis of 41 robust inception cohort studies

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Mitchell, A. J., Shiri‐Feshki, M.·2009·Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica

DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0447.2008.01326.x

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Abstract

Objective: To quantify the risk of developing dementia in those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Method: Meta‐analysis of inception cohort studies. Results: Forty‐one robust cohort studies were identified. To avoid heterogeneity clinical studies, population studies and clinical trials were analysed separately. Using Mayo defined MCI at baseline and adjusting for sample size, the cumulative proportion who progressed to dementia, to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and to vascular dementia (VaD) was 39.2%, 33.6% and 6.2%, respectively in specialist settings and 21.9%, 28.9% and 5.2%, respectively in population studies. The adjusted annual conversion rate (ACR) from Mayo defined MCI to dementia, AD and VaD was 9.6%, 8.1% and 1.9%, respectively in specialist clinical settings and 4.9%, 6.8% and 1.6% in community studies. Figures from non‐Mayo defined MCI and clinical trials are also reported. Conclusion: The ACR is approximately 5–10% and most people with MCI will not progress to dementia even after 10 years of follow‐up.

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Canevelli, M., Blasimme, A., Vanacore, N., Bruno, G., & Cesari, M. (2015) · Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · doi:10.1016/j.jamda.2015.04.013 · Cited by 19
A ‘Framingham-like’ Algorithm for Predicting 4-Year Risk of Progression to Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment or Alzheimer’s Disease Using Multidomain Information
Steenland, K., Initiative, A. D. N., Zhao, L., John, S. E., Goldstein, F. C., Levey, A. I., & Alonso, Á. (2018) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-170769 · Cited by 19
Mild cognitive impairment: A concept analysis
Domínguez-Chávez, C. J., Murrock, C. J., & Salazar-González, B. C. (2018) · Nursing Forum · doi:10.1111/nuf.12299 · Cited by 22
“MCI progresses to Alzheimer’s disease more frequently, followed by nonspecific dementia, Lewy body dementia, and vascular dementia.(40)”
Background
Assistive sensor-based technology driven self-management for building resilience among people with early stage cognitive impairment
Casaccia, S., Bevilacqua, R., Scalise, L., Revel, G. M., Astell, A. J., Spinsante, S., & Rossi, L. (2019) · IEEE International Symposium on Measurements & Networking (M&N) · doi:10.1109/iwmn.2019.8804998 · Cited by 19
High-Throughput Mass Spectrometry Assay for Quantifying β-Amyloid 40 and 42 in Cerebrospinal Fluid
Weber, D. M., Tran, D., Goldman, S. M., Taylor, S. W., Ginns, E. I., LAGIER, R. J., Rissman, R. A., Brewer, J. B., & Clarke, N. J. (2019) · Clinical Chemistry · doi:10.1373/clinchem.2018.300947 · Cited by 19
Mild Cognitive Impairment and modifiable risk factors among Lebanese older adults in primary care
Assaf, G., Khoury, J. E., Jawhar, S., & Rahme, D. V. (2021) · Asian Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.ajp.2021.102828 · Cited by 21
The Combination of Dysexecutive and Amnestic Deficits Strongly Predicts Conversion to Dementia in Young Mild Cognitive Impairment Patients: A Report from the Gothenburg-Oslo MCI Study
Hessen, E., Reinvang, I., Eliassen, C. F., Nordlund, A., Gjerstad, L., Fladby, T., & Wallin, A. (2014) · Dementia and Geriatric Cognitive Disorders Extra · doi:10.1159/000360282 · Cited by 19
Neuropsychological Predictors of Long-Term (10 Years) Mild Cognitive Impairment Stability
Alves, L., Cardoso, S., Marôco, J. P., de Mendonça, A., Guerreiro, M., & Silva, D. (2018) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-171034 · Cited by 19
Mild and moderate cognitive impairment and mortality among Brazilian older adults in long-term follow-up: The Bambui Health Aging Study
Campos, C. G., Diniz, B. S., Firmo, J. O. A., Lima‐Costa, M. F., Blay, S. L., & Costa, E. (2020) · Brazilian Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1590/1516-4446-2019-0654 · Cited by 18
Association between physical activity and mild cognitive impairment in community-dwelling older adults: Depression as a mediator
Liu, X., Jiang, Y., Peng, W., Wang, M., Chen, X., Li, M., Ruan, Y., Sun, S., Yang, T., Yang, Y., et al. (2022) · Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnagi.2022.964886 · Cited by 18
“Approximately 5−10% of MCI will progress to dementia each year and both MCI patients and those recovering from MCI have a higher risk of developing dementia than healthy older adults (Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki, 2009; Roberts et al., 2014).”
Background
Dual-targeted repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation modulates brain functional network connectivity to improve cognition in mild cognitive impairment patients
Zhang, X., Ren, H., Pei, Z., Lian, C., Su, X., Lan, X., Chen, C., Lei, Y., Li, B., & Guo, Y. (2022) · Frontiers in Physiology · doi:10.3389/fphys.2022.1066290 · Cited by 18
Cleveland Clinic Cognitive Battery (C3B): Normative, Reliability, and Validation Studies of a Self-Administered Computerized Tool for Screening Cognitive Dysfunction in Primary Care
Rao, S. M., Galioto, R., Sokolowski, M., Pierce, M., Penn, L., Sturtevant, A., Skugor, B., Anstead, B., Leverenz, J. B., Schindler, D., et al. (2023) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-220929 · Cited by 18
“Although MCI can occur for reasons other than AD and some MCI patients remain stable or revert to normal cognition, approximately 32–38% of MCI patients convert to dementia within a 5-year follow-up [2, 3].”
Background
Multi-level fusion network for mild cognitive impairment identification using multi-modal neuroimages
Xu, H., Zhong, S., & Zhang, Y. (2023) · Physics in Medicine and Biology · doi:10.1088/1361-6560/accac8 · Cited by 18
The use of nomogram for detecting mild cognitive impairment in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus
Maimaitituerxun, R., Chen, W., Xiang, J., Xie, Y., Kaminga, A. C., Wu, X. Y., Chen, L., Yang, J., Liu, A., & Dai, W. (2023) · Journal of Diabetes · doi:10.1111/1753-0407.13384 · Cited by 18
“9% in hospital-based and communitybased populations, respectively.(15) Furthermore, the overall unadjusted pooled odd ratio (OR) for the progression of MCI to dementia in those with diabetes was found to be 1.”
Background
Delineating the Heterogeneity of Alzheimer’s Disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment Using Normative Models of Dynamic Brain Functional Networks
Huo, Y., Jing, R., Li, P., Chen, P., Si, J., Liu, G., & Liu, Y. (2024) · Biological Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.biopsych.2024.05.025 · Cited by 18
Mild cognitive impairment associates with concurrent decreases in serum cholesterol and cholesterol-related lipoprotein subclasses
Tukiainen, T., Jylänki, P., Mäkinen, V., Gröhn, O. H. J., Hallikainen, M., Soininen, H. S., Kivipelto, M., Kaski, K. K., Groop, P., Savolainen, M. J., et al. (2011) · The journal of nutrition health & aging · doi:10.1007/s12603-011-0341-9 · Cited by 18
“8605 BP systolic (mmhg) 156 (24) 154 (23) 0.”
Regional Analysis of the Magnetization Transfer Ratio of the Brain in Mild Alzheimer Disease and Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment
Mascalchi, M., Ginestroni, A., Bessi, V., Toschi, N., Padiglioni, S., Ciulli, S., Tessa, C., Giannelli, M., Bracco, L., & Diciotti, S. (2013) · American Journal of Neuroradiology · doi:10.3174/ajnr.a3568 · Cited by 18
“6% per year, as indicated in a meta-analysis.(39) As a matter of fact, only approximately 60% of patients with amnestic MCI, termed converters, ultimately have development of probable AD after 5 years, whereas the remainder have other forms of dementia, remain stable, or even revert to normal.”
Background
Developing a Non-Pharmacological Intervention for Individuals With Mild Cognitive Impairment
Rodakowski, J. L., Reynolds, C. F., López, O. L., Butters, M. A., Dew, M. A., & Skidmore, E. R. (2016) · Journal of Applied Gerontology · doi:10.1177/0733464816645808 · Cited by 18
“Older adults with MCI develop dementia at a rate of 10% to 15% per year (Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
Background
Mortality in Mild Cognitive Impairment Diagnosed with DSM-5 Criteria and with Petersen's Criteria: A 17-Year Follow-Up in a Community Study
Santabárbara, J., Gracia‐García, P., Pírez, G., López‐Antón, R., de la Cámara, C., Ventura, T., Pérez-Sastre, M., Lobo, E., Saz, P., Marcos, G., et al. (2016) · American Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.jagp.2016.07.005 · Cited by 18
Multivariate regression analysis of structural MRI connectivity matrices in Alzheimer’s disease
Rasero, J., Amoroso, N., Rocca, M. L., Tangaro, S., Bellotti, R., Stramaglia, S., & Initiative, A. D. N. (2017) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0187281 · Cited by 18
The Loss in Expectation of Life due to Early-Onset Mild Cognitive Impairment and Early-Onset Dementia in Norway
Strand, B. H., Knapskog, A., Persson, K., Edwin, T. H., Bjertness, E., Engedal, K., & Selbæk, G. (2019) · Dementia and Geriatric Cognitive Disorders · doi:10.1159/000501269 · Cited by 18
Mature silkworm powders ameliorated scopolamine-induced amnesia by enhancing mitochondrial functions in the brains of mice
Nguyen, P., Kim, K., Kim, A., Choi, B.-H., Osabutey, A. F., Park, Y. H., Lee, H., Ji, S. D., & Koh, Y. H. (2020) · Journal of Functional Foods · doi:10.1016/j.jff.2020.103886 · Cited by 19
Meditation treatment of Alzheimer disease and mild cognitive impairment
Chen, Y., Zhang, J., Zhang, T., Cao, L., You, Y., Zhang, C., Liu, X., & Zhang, Q. (2020) · Medicine · doi:10.1097/md.0000000000019313 · Cited by 18
Detection of Mild Cognitive Impairment Based on Virtual Reality: A Scoping Review
Wang, S., Yin, H., Li, G., Jia, Y., Leng, M., Meng, Q., Wang, C., & Chen, L. (2020) · Current Alzheimer Research · doi:10.2174/1567205017666200317100421 · Cited by 20
Identifying brain functional connectivity alterations during different stages of Alzheimer’s disease
Ahmadi, H., Fatemizadeh, E., & Nasrabadi, A. M. (2020) · International Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1080/00207454.2020.1860037 · Cited by 18
“A meta-examination of 41 ponders showed that among the people with MCI followed for a long time, on average, 38% of them had the dementia [4].”
Background
Visual Reproduction on the Wechsler Memory Scale-Revised as a Predictor of Alzheimer’s Disease in Japanese Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairments
Hori, T., Sanjo, N., Tomita, M., & Mizusawa, H. (2013) · Dementia and Geriatric Cognitive Disorders · doi:10.1159/000346738 · Cited by 18
Mild cognitive impairment
Gordon, C. A., & Martin, D. J. (2013) · Expert Review of Neurotherapeutics · doi:10.1586/14737175.2013.856265 · Cited by 21
Diagnosing Mild Cognitive Impairment as a Precursor to Dementia: Fact or Fallacy?
Klekociuk, S. Z., Saunders, N. L., & Summers, M. J. (2016) · Australian Psychologist · doi:10.1111/ap.12178 · Cited by 21
Effects of Different Cognitive Trainings on Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment in the Elderly: A One-Year Longitudinal Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) Study
Feng, W. G., Wang, D., Tang, L., Cheng, Y., Wang, G., Hu, G., Gong, X., Cao, X., Jiang, L., & Li, C. (2018) · Medical Science Monitor · doi:10.12659/msm.908315 · Cited by 18
Cognitive reserve and Aβ1-42 in mild cognitive impairment (Argentina-Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative)
Harris, P., Suarez, M. F., Surace, E. I., Méndez, P. C., Martin, M. E., Clarens, M. F., Tapajóz, F., Campos, J., Sevlever, G. E., Allegri, R., et al. (2015) · Neuropsychiatric Disease and Treatment · doi:10.2147/ndt.s84292 · Cited by 19
“Although rates of conversion from MCI to AD range from 5% to 23%, many individuals diagnosed with MCI remain stable or progress to a non-AD dementia.(4) Hallmark lesions of sporadic AD comprise intraneuronal inclusions of abnormally phosphorylated tau protein and extracellular deposits of amyloid-beta peptide, especia…”
Background
Psychosocial adjustment to Mild Cognitive Impairment: The role of illness perceptions, cognitive fusion and cognitive impairment.
Guzmán, A., Gillanders, D., Stevenson, A., & Ross, K. (2021) · Dementia · doi:10.1177/1471301219893862 · Cited by 16
“Research evidence from a large meta-analysis of 41 studies suggests that annual progression rates are around 5% to 10% (Mitchell & Shiri-Feshki, 2009); however, many people diagnosed with MCI experience no further cognitive decline and an estimated 16% revert back to ‘normal’ cognitive functioning…”
Background
Counseling and disclosure practices in predictive Alzheimer's disease diagnostics: A scoping review
Perry, J., Radenbach, K., Geschke, K., & Rostamzadeh, A. (2024) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.14365 · Cited by 17
Gait Speed is independently associated with Depression Symptoms in Mild Cognitive Impairment
Naharcı, M. İ., Katipoğlu, B., Veizi, B. G. Y., & Taşçı, İ. (2021) · Aging Neuropsychology and Cognition · doi:10.1080/13825585.2021.1882932 · Cited by 17
“While subjects aged 65 years or older generally develop dementia at a yearly rate of 1–2%, those with MCI have a higher risk for conversion to dementia, with a reported incidence ranging from 10 to 15% (Mitchell & Mojtaba, 2009).”
Background
Preexisting Mild Cognitive Impairment, Dementia, and Receipt of Treatments for Acute Ischemic Stroke
Levine, D. A., Gałecki, A. T., Morgenstern, L. B., Zahuranec, D. B., Langa, K. M., Kabeto, M. U., Okullo, D., Nallamothu, B. K., Giordani, B., Reale, B. K., et al. (2021) · Stroke · doi:10.1161/strokeaha.120.032258 · Cited by 17
“DNR status (n=768), n (%) 5 (2) 17 (7) 17 (9) 0.”
Connectome-based model predicts episodic memory performance in individuals with subjective cognitive decline and amnestic mild cognitive impairment
Zhu, Y., Zang, F., Wang, Q., Zhang, Q., Tan, C., Zhang, S., Hu, T., Qi, L., Xu, S., Ren, Q., et al. (2021) · Behavioural Brain Research · doi:10.1016/j.bbr.2021.113387 · Cited by 21
A Review of Acute Coronary Syndrome and its Potential Impact on Cognitive Function
Kasprzak, D., Rzeźniczak, J., Ganowicz-Kaatz, T., Łuczak, T., Słomczyński, M., Hiczkiewicz, J., & Burchardt, P. (2021) · Global Heart · doi:10.5334/gh.934 · Cited by 20
Decreased Global EEG Synchronization in Amyloid Positive Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer’s Disease Patients—Relationship to APOE ε4
Smailović, U., Johansson, C., Koenig, T. W., Kåreholt, I., Graff, C., & Jelić, V. (2021) · Brain Sciences · doi:10.3390/brainsci11101359 · Cited by 16
“As it is known from the literature and clinical practice, a number of MCI subjects will progress to other types of dementias, including dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), Parkinson disease dementia (PDD), and vascular dementia or remain cognitively stable over time [67,68], while a substantial proportion of clinically d…”
Background
Physical inactivity in older adults with cognitive impairment without dementia: room for improvement
Miller, M. J., Cenzer, I. S., Barnes, D. E., & Covinsky, K. E. (2021) · Aging Clinical and Experimental Research · doi:10.1007/s40520-021-01999-5 · Cited by 17
Gestures analysis during a picture description task: Capacity to discriminate between healthy controls, mild cognitive impairment, and Alzheimer's disease
Geladó, S., Gómez‐Ruiz, I., & Diéguez-Vide, F. (2021) · Journal of Neurolinguistics · doi:10.1016/j.jneuroling.2021.101038 · Cited by 17
Effect of intensive blood pressure control on subtypes of mild cognitive impairment and risk of progression from SPRINT study
Gaussoin, S. A., Pajewski, N. M., Chelune, G. J., Cleveland, M. L., Crowe, M. G., Launer, L. J., Lerner, A. J., Martindale-Adams, J. L., Nichols, L. O., Ogrocki, P. K., et al. (2021) · Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · doi:10.1111/jgs.17583 · Cited by 17
“Study outcomes included the occurrence of adjudicated probable dementia and MCI.”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluential
Impact of Integrated Care Pathways Within the Framework of Collaborative Care on Older Adults With Anxiety, Depression, or Mild Cognitive Impairment
Dham, P., McAiney, C. A., Saperson, K., Wang, W., Malik, N., Parascandalo, F., Zhao, H., Lourenço, L., Oliver, D., Kates, N., et al. (2022) · American Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.jagp.2022.01.010 · Cited by 17
Anticholinergic Drug Burden and Risk of Incident MCI and Dementia
Gildengers, A. G., Stoehr, G. P., Ran, X., Jacobsen, E. P., Teverovsky, E., Chang, C. H., & Ganguli, M. (2023) · Alzheimer Disease & Associated Disorders · doi:10.1097/wad.0000000000000538 · Cited by 17

Authors: Mitchell, A. J., & Shiri‐Feshki, M.
Affiliations: University of Leicester (GB)
Nottinghamshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust (GB)
Corresponding author: Mitchell, A. J.
ORCID: Mitchell, A. J.
Venue: Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2009-03-03
Volume: 119
Issue: 4
Pages: 252-265
ISSN: 0001-690X (ISSN-L)
1600-0447
DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0447.2008.01326.x
OpenAlex: W2052226124
Cited by: 1,659
References: 87
Citations by year: 2026: 84 · 2025: 98 · 2024: 135 · 2023: 118 · 2022: 129 · 2021: 176 · 2020: 165 · 2019: 115 · 2018: 96 · 2017: 86 · 2016: 88 · 2015: 85 · 2014: 62 · 2013: 75 · 2012: 55
FWCI: 5.80
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Cancer-related cognitive impairment studies
Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Neurology › Neurological Disease Mechanisms and Treatments
Keywords: mild cognitive impairment, dementia progression, Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, Mayo criteria
MeSH terms: Aged, Alzheimer Disease, Cognition Disorders, Dementia, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Middle Aged, Neuropsychological Tests, Severity of Illness Index, Dementia, Vascular, Cohort Studies, Prevalence, Disease Progression

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Rate of progression of mild cognitive impairment to dementia – meta‐analysis of 41 robust inception cohort studies

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