Cited by 457Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsMemory Processes and InfluencesClinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills

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Hindsight Bias

Roese, Neal J., Vohs, Kathleen D.·2012·Perspectives on Psychological Science

DOI 10.1177/1745691612454303

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Abstract

Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they “knew it all along,” that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known. Hindsight bias embodies any combination of three aspects: memory distortion, beliefs about events’ objective likelihoods, or subjective beliefs about one’s own prediction abilities. Hindsight bias stems from (a) cognitive inputs (people selectively recall information consistent with what they now know to be true and engage in sensemaking to impose meaning on their own knowledge), (b) metacognitive inputs (the ease with which a past outcome is understood may be misattributed to its assumed prior likelihood), and (c) motivational inputs (people have a need to see the world as orderly and predictable and to avoid being blamed for problems). Consequences of hindsight bias include myopic attention to a single causal understanding of the past (to the neglect of other reasonable explanations) as well as general overconfidence in the certainty of one’s judgments. New technologies for visualizing and understanding data sets may have the unintended consequence of heightening hindsight bias, but an intervention that encourages people to consider alternative causal explanations for a given outcome can reduce hindsight bias.

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Clegg, C., Robinson, M. A., Davis, M. C., Bolton, L., Pieniazek, R. L., & McKay, A. (2017) · Design Science · doi:10.1017/dsj.2017.4 · Cited by 63
“Indeed, such hindsight bias is well documented following accidents and errors (Roese & Vohs 2012).”
Dual-target search for high and low prevalence X-ray threat targets
Godwin, H., Menneer, T., Cave, K. R., & Donnelly, N. (2010) · doi:10.1080/13506285.2010.500605 · Cited by 54
Choice-Supportive Misremembering: A New Taxonomy and Review
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“Furthermore, in this review we are concerned solely with preferential choice and not with the predictability of an event or outcome, which is the main issue investigated in studies on the hindsight bias (Roese and Vohs, 2012).”
Background
Marketing Ideas: How to Write Research Articles that Readers Understand and Cite
Warren, N. L., Farmer, M., Gu, T., & Warren, C. (2021) · Journal of Marketing · doi:10.1177/00222429211003560 · Cited by 93
Making ERP research more transparent: Guidelines for preregistration.
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“…statistical inferences (Devezer et al., 2020; Navarro, 2020), strengthen the link between theories and their mathematical representations (Szollosi and Donkin, 2019), or develop more precise, consistent, and “hard-to-vary” theories altogether (Szollosi and Donkin, 2021; van Rooij and Baggio, 2021).”
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Robson, S. G., Baum, M. A., Beaudry, J. L., Beitner, J., Brohmer, H., Chin, J. M., Jaśko, K., Kouros, C. D., Laukkonen, R., Moreau, D., et al. (2021) · Collabra Psychology · doi:10.1525/collabra.30137 · Cited by 79
The incidentaloma: a medicolegal dilemma.
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“Whereas there is no lack of literature concerning the hindsight bias (for a review, see e.g. Roese & Vohs, 2012, for reviews of the hindsight bias in the context of the law, see Harley, 2007 and Giroux, Coburn, Harley, Connolly, & Bernstein, 2016, for discussion in the context of the law see…”
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“Hindsight bias occurs when individuals overestimate their prior knowledge about facts or events once they know the actual outcome (Pohl & Erdfelder, 2017), suggesting that they “knew it all along” (Fischhoff, 1975).”
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“Finally, paradigmatic examples of memory disruptions due to information obtained after the experience being recalled include post-event misinformation [8], imagination inflation [9], hindsight bias [10], or leading questions [11].”
Background
Explaining individual differences in cognitive processes underlying hindsight bias
Coolin, A., Erdfelder, E., Bernstein, D. M., Thornton, A. E., & Thornton, W. L. (2014) · Psychonomic Bulletin & Review · doi:10.3758/s13423-014-0691-5 · Cited by 32
“These findings are consistent with other reviews (Pohl, 2004), suggesting that recollection bias is a modest but significant contributor to HB.”
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Martinussen, L., Møller, M., Prato, C., & Haustein, S. (2017) · Accident Analysis and Prevention · doi:10.1016/j.aap.2016.10.031 · Cited by 36
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Xie, W., Yu, B., Zhou, X., Sedikides, C., & Vohs, K. D. (2013) · Journal of Consumer Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jcps.2013.12.002 · Cited by 34
“Next, the experimenter told participants that the following task involved operating high-precision equipment for which they needed to clean their hands with a disposable wet wipe.”
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Supervisory and co-worker support on the work-life balance of working women in the banking sector: a developing country perspective
Uddin, M., Ali, K. B., Khan, M. A., & Ahmad, A. (2021) · Journal of Family Studies · doi:10.1080/13229400.2021.1922299 · Cited by 55
“The items in the measurewere properly structured and examined by experts tomake themmore understandable and also eliminate retrospective biases and ambiguity in the terms and concepts employed in obtaining the respondents’ perceptions (Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Background
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Løhre, E., & Teigen, K. (2016) · Thinking & Reasoning · doi:10.1080/13546783.2015.1069758 · Cited by 34
“Studies of the hindsight bias (Fischhoff, 1975; Roese & Vohs, 2012) show that events often seem more predictable in retrospect than before the outcomes are known.”
Background
Hindsight bias in depression
Groß, J., Blank, H., & Bayen, U. J. (2017) · Clinical Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/2167702617712262 · Cited by 32
“This phenomenon is known as hindsight bias (for a review, see Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
BackgroundInfluential
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“The hindsight bias, also known as the “knew-it-all-along” effect [14, 36], refers to overestimating the ability of oneself to have predicted an outcome after it has already happened.”
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“com/ICSME-2 it becomes known than it was before it became known [53].”
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“” That is an example of hindsight bias: people claim that they had known it all along – and would notice it next time [75].”
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Casu, M., Guarnera, L., Caponnetto, P., & Battiato, S. (2024) · Forensic Science International: Digital Investigation · doi:10.1016/j.fsidi.2024.301795 · Cited by 30
“…science is the hindsight bias (Giroux et al., 2016), which occurs when people believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known, involving memory distortion, beliefs about objective likelihoods, and subjective beliefs about one’s own prediction abilities (Roese and Vohs, 2012).”
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An integrated ranking approach using cross-efficiency intervals and the cumulative prospect theory
Fang, L., & Yang, J. (2019) · Computers & Industrial Engineering · doi:10.1016/j.cie.2019.07.053 · Cited by 33
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“Participants assimilate the hindsight information with the rest of the knowledge as a way to “make sense, or a coherent whole, out of all that he knows about the event” (Fischhoff, 1977, p. 356; see also Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
“Old” and “new” safety thinking: Perspectives of aviation safety investigators
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“Knowledge updating appears to be a crucial process in hindsight memory distortion (Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
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“” The results of courses of action color peoples' judgments, including ethical or moral evaluations (Byrne & Timmons, 2018; Fleischhut et al., 2017; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
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“Past events, after the outcome is known, always seem easily predictable (Blank et al., 2007; Pezzo, 2011; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Background
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Blank, H., & Peters, J. H. (2010) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/mc.38.3.356 · Cited by 23
Lessons learned from accident and near-accident experiences in traffic
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“This finding is particularly important in consideration of the fact that hindsight bias is a very robust and pervasive error (Guilbault et al., 2004; Roese & Vohs, 2012), for which it may be assumed that it is shared among all authors.”
Background
Hindsight bias is not a bias
Hedden, B. (2018) · Analysis · doi:10.1093/analys/any023 · Cited by 24
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“…back from the outcome makes the assessor susceptible to hindsight bias, which leads to an over-estimation of the foreseeability of the outcome (Roese 2012) and that the resulting investigations can contribute to a culture in which clinicians feel that they are liable to be blamed for…”
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“…that both the hindsight bias and curse of knowledge continue in diminished forms throughout the life span (Bernstein, Erdfelder, Meltzoff, Peria, & Loftus, 2011; Roese & Vohs, 2012), school-age children might also be expected to have greater challenges distinguishing direct from indirect knowledge.”
Background
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“…biased towards that particular outcome and potentially underestimate the uncertainty associated with other outcomes that might have been possible (i.e. ‘hindsight bias’, when an assessor believes that an event is more predictable after it occurs than it was before it happened; Roese & Vohs 2012).”
Background
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“consequences for novices and experts alike (e.g., Arkes et al., 1981; Berlin, 2000; Dawson et al., 1988; Leary, 1982).”
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Metacognitive hindsight bias
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“To understand the cognitive processes that underlie hindsight bias, researchers have proposed that there are three distinct, hierarchically organized components of hindsight bias (see Blank, Nestler, von Collani, & Fischer, 2008; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
BackgroundInfluential
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“To improve comprehension of the measurement items, the instruments were pre-tested by three faculty members and three subject matter experts to assess the content and face validity (Roese and Vohs 2012).”
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Equal egocentric bias in school-aged children with and without autism spectrum disorders
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“Hindsight bias refers to the phenomenon that, after learning an outcome, people find it difficult to judge a naive perspective that lacks this outcome knowledge (Fischhoff, 1975; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Background
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“…current and past findings (Felson & Palmore, 2018) is that victim blaming has a common general psychological process (e.g., hindsight bias and just world beliefs; Furnham, 2003; Roese & Vohs, 2012), regardless of victimization type, rather than a basis in crime-specific stereotypes or assumptions.”
Background
How expert witnesses' counterfactuals influence causal and responsibility attributions of mock jurors and expert judges
Catellani, P., Bertolotti, M., Vagni, M., & Pajardi, D. (2020) · Applied Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1002/acp.3720 · Cited by 17
“These findings are in line with research on other cognitive biases, such as the outcome bias (Baron & Hershey, 1988; Mazzocco et al., 2004) or the hindsight bias (Fischhoff, 1975; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Result
“I’m Trying to Stop Things Before They Happen”: Carers’ Contributions to Patient Safety in Hospitals
Merner, B., Hill, S., & Taylor, M. (2019) · Qualitative Health Research · doi:10.1177/1049732319841021 · Cited by 17
Overclaiming shares processes with the hindsight bias
Müller, S., & Moshagen, M. (2018) · Personality and Individual Differences · doi:10.1016/j.paid.2018.06.035 · Cited by 17
Investigating the role of the faculty advisor in doctoral students’ career trajectories
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“…evaluations of unrelated targets; Nisbett and Wilson 1977) or hindsight bias (i.e. the inclination to see an outcome as having been predictable; Roese and Vohs 2012) may have led graduates who accepted tenure-track positions to reflect more favorably upon their mentoring experiences due to…”
Background
Making Sense of Self-Deception: Distinguishing Self-Deception from Delusion, Moral Licensing, Cognitive Dissonance and Other Self-Distortions
Khalil, E. L. (2017) · Philosophy · doi:10.1017/s003181911700033x · Cited by 25
Adaptive compression as a unifying framework for episodic and semantic memory
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“Conversely, updating the model after a new experience (such as in post-event misinformation 98 or hindsight bias 99 ) changes the decoder and therefore alters how past experiences are reconstructed 23 , potentially also explaining associative memory errors 100 .”
Failures in the Loop: Human Leadership in AI-Based Decision-Making
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Age Differences in Processes Underlying Hindsight Bias: A Life-Span Study
Pohl, R., Bayen, U., Arnold, N. R., Auer, T., & Martin, C. (2018) · Journal of Cognition and Development · doi:10.1080/15248372.2018.1476356 · Cited by 16
“…bias, which has been investigated extensively and mainly with young adults (for overviews, see Bernstein, Aßfalg, Kumar, & Ackerman, 2016; Blank, Musch, & Pohl, 2007; Guilbault, Bryant, Brockway, & Posavac, 2004; Hoffrage & Pohl, 2003; Pezzo, 2011; Pohl & Erdfelder, 2017; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Background

Authors: Roese, N. J., & Vohs, K. D.
Affiliations: Northwestern University (US)
University of Minnesota (US)
ORCID: Roese, Neal J.
Vohs, Kathleen D.
Venue: Perspectives on Psychological Science
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Published: 2012-09
Volume: 7
Issue: 5
Pages: 411-426
ISSN: 1745-6916 (ISSN-L)
1745-6924
DOI: 10.1177/1745691612454303
OpenAlex: W4211165067
Cited by: 457
References: 186
Citations by year: 2026: 35 · 2025: 50 · 2024: 52 · 2023: 43 · 2022: 40 · 2021: 54 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 27 · 2018: 38 · 2017: 37 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 20 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 2
FWCI: 9.21
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license (tdm)
Locations: Perspectives on Psychological Science (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory Processes and Influences
Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
Keywords: hindsight bias, memory distortion, perceived predictability, metacognition, overconfidence, causal explanation, sensemaking, alternative explanations, data visualization, bias reduction interventions

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