Comparative quantification of health risks conceptual framework and methodological issues
Open accessAbstract
Reliable and comparable analysis of risks to health is key for preventing disease and injury. Causal attribution of morbidity and mortality to risk factors has traditionally been conducted in the context of methodological traditions of individual risk factors, often in a limited number of settings, restricting comparability.In this paper, we discuss the conceptual and methodological issues for quantifying the population health effects of individual or groups of risk factors in various levels of causality using knowledge from different scientific disciplines. The issues include: comparing the burden of disease due to the observed exposure distribution in a population with the burden from a hypothetical distribution or series of distributions, rather than a single reference level such as non-exposed; considering the multiple stages in the causal network of interactions among risk factor(s) and disease outcome to allow making inferences about some combinations of risk factors for which epidemiological studies have not been conducted, including the joint effects of multiple risk factors; calculating the health loss due to risk factor(s) as a time-indexed "stream" of disease burden due to a time-indexed "stream" of exposure, including consideration of discounting; and the sources of uncertainty.
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The comparative risk assessment approach is predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially overlapping health risks.
“the comparative risk assessment approach, a framework used by GBD since 2002 that is predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially overlapping health risks.29, 37”
From Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (2023) · cites this paper as [37]
The Introduction (page unavailable) identifies comparative risk assessment as a GBD framework and says it considers multiple stages in a causal network, including interactions and joint effects of risk factors. The Risk Quantification Models section (page unavailable) describes layers of a causal web, supporting the claim about hierarchically organised, potentially overlapping risks. The paper identifies the framework with the GBD 2000 study but does not establish that GBD has used it since 2002. (LLM, conf=0.85)
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Flagged first, then by citations
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“Methodology used to derive attributable fractions While the overall methodology for CRAs has been fairly stable (for a description see [105, 106]) based on original epidemiological concepts of the 1980s [107, 108], there are important shifts in details:”
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- Authors
- Murray, C. J., Ezzati, M., Lopez, A. D., Rodgers, A., & Vander Hoorn, S.
- Affiliations
- Resources For The Future (US)
- University of Auckland (NZ)
- Corresponding author
- Ezzati, Majid
- Venue
- Population Health Metrics
- Published
- 2003-04-14
- Volume
- 1
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-1
- ISSN
- 1478-7954 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC156894
- OpenAlex
- W2109078197
- Cited by
- 887
- References
- 110
- Citations by year
- 2026: 24 · 2025: 41 · 2024: 50 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 60 · 2021: 30 · 2020: 38 · 2019: 35 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 38 · 2016: 29 · 2015: 41 · 2014: 62 · 2013: 48 · 2012: 50
- FWCI
- 16.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Population Health Metrics (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UNSWorks (University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging (P01AG017625)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Health, Environment, Cognitive Aging
- Keywords
- disease burden, risk factor combinations, causal attribution, discounting, uncertainty, disease prevention
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