Precision and False Perceptual Inference
Open accessAbstract
Accurate perceptual inference fundamentally depends upon accurate beliefs about the reliability of sensory data. In this paper, we describe a Bayes optimal and biologically plausible scheme that refines these beliefs through a gradient descent on variational free energy. To illustrate this, we simulate belief updating during visual foraging and show that changes in estimated sensory precision (i.e., confidence in visual data) are highly sensitive to prior beliefs about the contents of a visual scene. In brief, confident prior beliefs induce an increase in estimated precision when consistent with sensory evidence, but a decrease when they conflict. Prior beliefs held with low confidence are rapidly updated to posterior beliefs, determined by sensory data. These induce much smaller changes in beliefs about sensory precision. We argue that pathologies of scene construction may be due to abnormal priors, and show that these can induce a reduction in estimated sensory precision. Having previously associated this precision with cholinergic signaling, we note that several neurodegenerative conditions are associated with visual disturbances and cholinergic deficits; notably, the synucleinopathies. On relating the message passing in our model to the functional anatomy of the ventral visual stream, we find that simulated neuronal loss in temporal lobe regions induces confident, inaccurate, empirical prior beliefs at lower levels in the visual hierarchy. This provides a plausible, if speculative, computational mechanism for the loss of cholinergic signaling and the visual disturbances associated with temporal lobe Lewy body pathology. This may be seen as an illustration of the sorts of hypotheses that may be expressed within this computational framework.
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Dopamine is proposed to encode precision weighting.
“dopamine is proposed to encode precision weighting44”
From Deviations in effective connectivity explain different hallucination subtypes in Parkinson's disease psychosis (2026) · cites this paper as [44]
The Introduction associates sensory precision with acetylcholine, not dopamine. The only substantive dopamine passage, in Computational neuropathology, says impaired dopamine signaling might contribute to these disorders but does not link it to precision weighting. Searched the paper for “dopamine” and “dopamine precision weighting.” (LLM, conf=0.76)
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Sajid, N., Parr, T., Hope, T. M., Price, C. J., & Friston, K. J. (2020) · Cerebral Cortex · doi:10.1093/cercor/bhaa148 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Self-citationHallucinations both in and out of context: An active inference account
Benrimoh, D. A., Parr, T., Adams, R. A., & Friston, K. J. (2019) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0212379 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Self-citationPrefrontal Computation as Active Inference
Parr, T., Rikhye, R. V., Halassa, M. M., & Friston, K. J. (2019) · Cerebral Cortex · doi:10.1093/cercor/bhz118 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Self-citationCognitive effort and active inference
Parr, T., Holmes, E., Friston, K. J., & Pezzulo, G. (2023) · Neuropsychologia · doi:10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2023.108562 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Free Energy Principle for Perception and Action: A Deep Learning Perspective
Mazzaglia, P., Verbelen, T., Çatal, O., & Dhoedt, B. (2022) · Entropy · doi:10.3390/e24020301 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Integrating Evolutionary, Cultural, and Computational Psychiatry: A Multilevel Systemic Approach
Constant, A., Badcock, P. B., Friston, K. J., & Kirmayer, L. J. (2022) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2022.763380 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Self-citationInteroceptive technologies for psychiatric interventions: From diagnosis to clinical applications
Schoeller, F., Horowitz, A. H., Jain, A., Maes, P., Reggente, N., Christov-Moore, L., Pezzulo, G., Barca, L., Allen, M., Salomon, R., et al. (2024) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2023.105478 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Self-citationMcParlin, Z., Cerritelli, F., Rossettini, G., Friston, K. J., & Esteves, J. E. (2022) · Frontiers in Behavioral Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnbeh.2022.897247 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Self-citationAn Investigation of the Free Energy Principle for Emotion Recognition
Demekas, D., Parr, T., & Friston, K. J. (2020) · Frontiers in Computational Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fncom.2020.00030 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Self-citationThe two kinds of free energy and the Bayesian revolution
Gottwald, S., & Braun, D. A. (2020) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008420 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
From filters to fillers: an active inference approach to body image distortion in the selfie era
Tremblay, S. C., Tremblay, S. E., & Poirier, P. (2020) · AI & Society · doi:10.1007/s00146-020-01015-w · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Parvizi-Wayne, D., Sandved-Smith, L., Pitliya, R. J., Limanowski, J., Tufft, M. R. A., & Friston, K. J. (2024) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1354719 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Self-citationExpectations about precision bias metacognition and awareness.
Olawole‐Scott, H., & Yon, D. (2023) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/xge0001371 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Deep Active Inference and Scene Construction
Heins, R. C., Mirza, M. B., Parr, T., Friston, K. J., Kagan, I., & Pooresmaeili, A. (2020) · Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence · doi:10.3389/frai.2020.509354 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Self-citationMinds and Brains, Sleep and Psychiatry
Hobson, J. A., Gott, J., & Friston, K. J. (2020) · Psychiatric Research and Clinical Practice · doi:10.1176/appi.prcp.20200023 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Self-citationRelative fluency (unfelt vs felt) in active inference
Brouillet, D., & Friston, K. J. (2023) · Consciousness and Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.concog.2023.103579 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Self-citationTrujillo, L. T. (2019) · Frontiers in Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnins.2019.01292 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Ridder, D. D., Friston, K. J., Sedley, W., & Vanneste, S. (2023) · Brain Communications · doi:10.1093/braincomms/fcad132 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Self-citationThe computational pharmacology of oculomotion
Parr, T., & Friston, K. J. (2019) · Psychopharmacology · doi:10.1007/s00213-019-05240-0 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Self-citationDudley, R. E. J., Watson, F., O'Grady, L., Aynsworth, C., Dodgson, G., Common, S., Alderson‐Day, B., & Fernyhough, C. (2022) · Psychiatry Research · doi:10.1016/j.psychres.2022.114988 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
The Many Roles of Precision in Action
Limanowski, J., Adams, R. A., Kilner, J. M., & Parr, T. (2024) · Entropy · doi:10.3390/e26090790 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Self-citationInstability and Uncertainty Are Critical for Psychotherapy: How the Therapeutic Alliance Opens Us Up
Connolly, P. M. (2022) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2021.784295 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
The Active Bayesian Brain and the Rorschach Task
Meyer, G. J., & Friston, K. J. (2022) · Rorschachiana Journal of the International Society for the Rorschach · doi:10.1027/1192-5604/a000158 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationPerceptual pathways to hallucinogenesis
Sheldon, A. D., Kafadar, E., Fisher, V., Greenwald, M. S., Aitken, F., Negreira, A. M., Woods, S. W., & Powers, A. R. (2022) · Schizophrenia Research · doi:10.1016/j.schres.2022.02.002 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
fMRI Evidence for Default Mode Network Deactivation Associated with Rapid Eye Movements in Sleep
Hong, C. C.-H., Fallon, J., & Friston, K. J. (2021) · Brain Sciences · doi:10.3390/brainsci11111528 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationBistable perception, precision and neuromodulation
Novický, F., Parr, T., Friston, K. J., Mirza, M. B., & Sajid, N. (2023) · Cerebral Cortex · doi:10.1093/cercor/bhad401 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Bayesian brain and cooperative communication in schizophrenia
Palaniyappan, L. K., & Venkatasubramanian, G. (2022) · Journal of Psychiatry and Neuroscience · doi:10.1503/jpn.210231 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Interoceptive Technologies for Psychiatric Interventions: From Diagnosis to Clinical ApplicationsPreprint
Schoeller, F., Horowitz, A. H., Maes, P., Jain, A., Reggente, N., Christov‐Moore, L., Trousselard, M., Klein, A., Barca, L., Pezzulo, G., et al. (2022) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/sqr6z · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Self-citationConfidence in evaluations and value-based decisions reflects variation in experienced values.
Quandt, J., Figner, B., Holland, R. W., & Veling, H. (2021) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/xge0001102 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
The Cooperative Neuron: Cellular Foundations of Mental Life
Phillips, W. A. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.001.0001 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
State-Dependent Effective Connectivity in Resting-State fMRI
Park, H., Eo, J., Pae, C., Son, J., Park, S., & Kang, J. (2021) · Frontiers in Neural Circuits · doi:10.3389/fncir.2021.719364 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Modeling the subjective perspective of consciousness and its role in the control of behaviours
Rudrauf, D., Sergeant-Perthuis, G., Belli, O., Tisserand, Y., & Serugendo, G. D. M. (2021) · Journal of Theoretical Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110957 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Zaccaro, A., della Penna, F., Bubbico, F., BAYRAM, B., Parrotta, E., Perrucci, M. G., Costantini, M., & Ferri, F. (2026) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2026.121711 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
The Functional Anatomy of Nociception: Effective Connectivity in Chronic Pain and Placebo Response
Nara, S., Baliki, M. N., Friston, K. J., & Ray, D. (2025) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.1447-24.2025 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationDynamic planning in hierarchical active inference
Priorelli, M., & Stoianov, I. P. (2025) · Neural Networks · doi:10.1016/j.neunet.2024.107075 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Reclaiming saliency: Rhythmic precision-modulated action and perception
Meera, A. A., Novický, F., Parr, T., Friston, K. J., Lanillos, P., & Sajid, N. (2022) · Frontiers in Neurorobotics · doi:10.3389/fnbot.2022.896229 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Self-citationWhy Use Predictive Processing to Explain Psychopathology? The Case of Anorexia Nervosa
Gadsby, S., & Hohwy, J. (2020) · doi:10.5040/9781350099784.ch-012 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Why use predictive processing to explain psychopathology? The case of anorexia nervosaPreprint
Gadsby, S., & Hohwy, J. (2019) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/y46z5 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
DLPFC-PPC-cTBS effects on metacognitive awareness
Martin, A., Lane, T. J., & Hsu, T. (2023) · Cortex · doi:10.1016/j.cortex.2023.05.022 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Effects of expected task difficulty on metacognitive confidence and multitaskingPreprint
Sherman, M. T., & Seth, A. K. (2021) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/3gfp2 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Yun, S., Jo, S.-H., Jeon, H.-J., Choo, B.-K., Seok, J., Shin, H. K., Kim, I. Y., Choi, S., & Koo, B. (2024) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1293347 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Ignatavicius, A., Churchill, L., Anderson, J., Konuri, A., O’Callaghan, C., Lewis, S. J. G., & Matar, E. (2025) · Movement Disorders · doi:10.1002/mds.70011 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Todo, M. (2020) · Neuroscience Research · doi:10.1016/j.neures.2020.02.009 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Peripheral filling in causes illusory afterimages
Otten, M., Fitzmaurice, N., & Pinto, Y. (2025) · Vision Research · doi:10.1016/j.visres.2025.108721 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Reshaping computational neuropsychiatry beyond synaptopathy
Bottemanne, H., Mouchabac, S., & Gauld, C. (2025) · Brain · doi:10.1093/brain/awaf031 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
The hysterical symptom: A proposal of articulation of the Freudian theory and the Bayesian account
Thá, F., da Silveira, E. B. N., & da Silveira, T. B. N. (2021) · Neuropsychoanalysis · doi:10.1080/15294145.2021.1999845 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Fox, S. (2021) · Entropy · doi:10.3390/e23091155 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Parvizi-Wayne, D. (2024) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/b3h2e · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Introduction to The Cooperative Neuron
Phillips, W. A. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.003.0001 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
The active construction of past episodes
Parr, T., Pezzulo, G., & Friston, K. J. (2026) · Translational Neuroscience · doi:10.1515/tnsci-2025-0391 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
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“This aligns also with our result showing a negative correlation between task connectivity and dopaminergic D1 distribution, as dopamine is proposed to encode precision weighting 44 .”
Disorders of Artificial Awareness.
Parr, T., Hafner, D., & Friston, K. J. (2019) · UCL Discovery (University College London)
Self-citationLarkum, M. E. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.002.0005
Evolution and Development of Cooperative Neurons
Phillips, W. A. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.003.0007
An Information-theoretic View of Context-sensitive Computation
Phillips, W. A. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.003.0009
Phillips, W. A. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.003.0002
What Cooperative Neurons Do for Mental Life
Phillips, W. A. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.003.0006
Pathologies of Cooperative Neuronal Processing
Phillips, W. A. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.003.0008
Phillips, W. A. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.002.0004
Cooperative Neurons in Various States of Mind and Brain
Phillips, W. A. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.003.0005
Phillips, W. A. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.003.0003
Phillips, W. A. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.002.0003
Phillips, B. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.002.0006
Phillips, W. A. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.002.0008
Phillips, W. A. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.003.0011
Difficulties and Unresolved Issues
Phillips, W. A. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.003.0010
Advance praise for The Cooperative Neuron
Phillips, W. A. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198876984.002.0019
From falling keys to dreams—Dynamic reorganization
Northoff, G. (2024) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-821935-5.00009-0
From Salvador Dali to dreams—topographic reorganization model of dreams
Northoff, G. (2024) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-821935-5.00019-3
Bonilla‐Bedoya, S., Žalakevičiūtė, R., Mejía, D., da Silva, G. F., & Molina, J. R. (2026) · Restoration Ecology · doi:10.1111/rec.70447
The phantastic organ: predictive processing in the brain
Friston, K. J., & Parr, T. (2026) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2026.1901293
Self-citation
- Authors
- Parr, T., Benrimoh, D. A., Vincent, P., & Friston, K. J.
- Affiliations
- Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Parr, Thomas
- Venue
- Frontiers in Integrative Neuroscience
- Publisher
- Frontiers Media SA
- Published
- 2018-09-20
- Volume
- 12
- Pages
- 39-39
- ISSN
- 1662-5145 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6158318
- OpenAlex
- W2890724683
- Cited by
- 87
- References
- 82
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 4.91
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Frontiers in Integrative Neuroscience (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Rosetrees Trust (173346)
- Wellcome Trust (088130/Z/09/Z)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Visual perception and processing mechanisms
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Embodied and Extended Cognition
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
- Keywords
- sensory precision, perceptual inference, variational free energy, Bayesian belief updating, prior beliefs, visual foraging, cholinergic neurotransmission, synucleinopathies, Lewy bodies, temporal lobe, ventral stream, message passing, neuronal loss, visual disturbances, computational models of perception
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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