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Global Carbon Budget 2021

Friedlingstein, Pierre, Jones, Matthew W., O'Sullivan, Michael, Andrew, Robbie M., Bakker, Dorothee C. E., Hauck, Judith, Le Quéré, Corinne, Peters, Glen P., Peters, Wouter, Pongratz, Julia, Sitch, Stephen, Canadell, Josep G., Ciais, Philippe, Jackson, Rob B., Alin, Simone R., Anthoni, Peter, Bates, Nicholas R., Becker, Meike, Bellouin, Nicolas, Bopp, Laurent, Chau, Thi Tuyet Trang, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Cronin, Margot, Currie, Kim I., Decharme, Bertrand, Djeutchouang, Laique M., Dou, Xinyu, Evans, Wiley, Feely, Richard A., Feng, Liang, Gasser, Thomas, Gilfillan, Dennis, Gkritzalis, Thanos, Grassi, Giacomo, Gregor, Luke, Gruber, Nicolas, Gürses, Özgür, Harris, Ian, Houghton, Richard A., Hurtt, George C., Iida, Yosuke, Ilyina, Tatiana, Luijkx, Ingrid T., Jain, Atul, Jones, Steve D., Kato, Etsushi, Kennedy, Daniel, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Knauer, Jürgen, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Körtzinger, Arne, Landschützer, Peter, Lauvset, Siv K., Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lienert, Sebastian, Liu, Junjie, Marland, Gregg, McGuire, Patrick C., Melton, Joe R., Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro, Niwa, Yosuke, Ono, Tsuneo, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rehder, Gregor, Resplandy, Laure, Robertson, Eddy, Rödenbeck, Christian, Rosan, Thais M., Schwinger, Jörg, Schwingshackl, Clemens, Séférian, Roland, Sutton, Adrienne J., Sweeney, Colm, Tanhua, Toste, Tans, Pieter P., Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, Tubiello, Francesco, van der Werf, Guido R., Vuichard, Nicolas, Wada, Chisato, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watson, Andrew J., Willis, David, Wiltshire, Andrew J., Yuan, Wenping, Yue, Chao, Yue, Xu, Zaehle, Sönke, Zeng, Jiye·2022·Earth System Science Data
DOI 10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022

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Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions ( E FOS ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change ( E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate ( G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO 2 sink ( S OCEAN ) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO 2 sink ( S LAND ) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance ( B IM ), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 σ . For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our E LUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, E FOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and E LUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , for a total anthropogenic CO 2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr −1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO 2 ). Also, for 2020, G ATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr −1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr −1 ), S OCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr −1 , with a B IM of −0.8 GtC yr −1 . The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in E FOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

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Metadata

Authors
Friedlingstein, P., Jones, M. W., O'Sullivan, M., Andrew, R. M., Bakker, D. C. E., Hauck, J., Le Quéré, C., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Sitch, S., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Alin, S. R., Anthoni, P., Bates, N. R., Becker, M., Bellouin, N., Bopp, L., Chau, T. T. T., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Cronin, M., Currie, K. I., Decharme, B., Djeutchouang, L. M., Dou, X., Evans, W., Feely, R. A., Feng, L., Gasser, T., Gilfillan, D., Gkritzalis, T., Grassi, G., Gregor, L., Gruber, N., Gürses, Ö., Harris, I., Houghton, R. A., Hurtt, G. C., Iida, Y., Ilyina, T., Luijkx, I. T., Jain, A., Jones, S. D., Kato, E., Kennedy, D., Klein Goldewijk, K., Knauer, J., Korsbakken, J. I., Körtzinger, A., Landschützer, P., Lauvset, S. K., Lefèvre, N., Lienert, S., Liu, J., Marland, G., McGuire, P. C., Melton, J. R., Munro, D. R., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S.-I., Niwa, Y., Ono, T., Pierrot, D., Poulter, B., Rehder, G., Resplandy, L., Robertson, E., Rödenbeck, C., Rosan, T. M., Schwinger, J., Schwingshackl, C., Séférian, R., Sutton, A. J., Sweeney, C., Tanhua, T., Tans, P. P., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., Tubiello, F., van der Werf, G. R., Vuichard, N., Wada, C., Wanninkhof, R., Watson, A. J., Willis, D., Wiltshire, A. J., Yuan, W., Yue, C., Yue, X., Zaehle, S., & Zeng, J.
ORCID
Venue
Earth System Science Data
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Published
2022-04-26
Volume
14
Issue
4
Pages
1917-2005
ISSN
1866-3516
DOI
10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022
Cited by
1,285
References
19
Language
en
Licence
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (vor)
Funders
  • Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (IRI I001019N)
  • Fondation BNP Paribas (Philanthropic grant for developments of the Global Carbon Atlas)
  • Tula Foundation (n.a.)
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China (41975155)
  • Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (n.a.)
  • Horizon 2020
  • European Space Agency (ESRIN/4000123002/18/I-NB, 4000112091/14/I-LG)
  • Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (n.a.)
  • Bundesministerium für Forschung, Technologie und Raumfahrt (03F0773A, 03F0857C)
  • Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (390683824)
  • GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel (n.a.)
  • Helmholtz Association (ATMO Programme, VH-NG-1301)
  • Marine Institute (n.a.)
  • Ministry of the Environment, Government of Japan (JPMEERF21S20810, E1751)
  • Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation (n.a.)
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC17K0348, 80NM0018F0583, 80NSSC18K0893)
  • Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (SH-312, 17616, NWO-2021.010)
  • National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (n.a.)
  • Norges Forskningsråd (270061, 245927)
  • Department of Science and Innovation, South Africa (n.a.)
  • National Research Foundation (n.a.)
  • Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (200020_172476)
  • Royal Society (RP\R1\191063, OCEANFLUX)
  • National Centre for Atmospheric Science (n.a.)
  • Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P021417/1, NE/R016518/1)
  • Newton Fund (CSSP Brazil)
  • U.S. Department of Commerce (n.a.)
  • U.S. Department of Energy (DE-SC000 0016323, DESC0012972)
  • National Science Foundation (1903722, PLR 1543457)
  • Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University (80NSSC18K0893)

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

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