Physical activity and the risk of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis
Abstract
We investigated the association between specific types of physical activity and the risk of type 2 diabetes in a systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies. PubMed, Embase and Ovid databases were searched for prospective studies and randomized trials up to 2nd of March 2015. Summary relative risks (RRs) were calculated using a random effects model. Eighty-one studies were included. The summary RRs for high versus low activity were 0.65 (95 % CI 0.59-0.71, I(2) = 18 %, n = 14) for total physical activity, 0.74 (95 % CI 0.70-0.79, I(2) = 84 %, n = 55) for leisure-time activity, 0.61 (95 % CI 0.51-0.74, I(2) = 73 %, n = 8) for vigorous activity, 0.68 (95 % CI 0.52-0.90, I(2) = 93 %, n = 5) for moderate activity, 0.66 (95 % CI 0.47-0.94, I(2) = 47 %, n = 4) for low intensity activity, and 0.85 (95 % CI 0.79-0.91, I(2) = 0 %, n = 7) for walking. Inverse associations were also observed for increasing activity over time, resistance exercise, occupational activity and for cardiorespiratory fitness. Nonlinear relations were observed for leisure-time activity, vigorous activity, walking and resistance exercise (p nonlinearity < 0.0001 for all), with steeper reductions in type 2 diabetes risk at low activity levels than high activity levels. This meta-analysis provides strong evidence for an inverse association between physical activity and risk of type 2 diabetes, which may partly be mediated by reduced adiposity. All subtypes of physical activity appear to be beneficial. Reductions in risk are observed up to 5-7 h of leisure-time, vigorous or low intensity physical activity per week, but further reductions cannot be excluded beyond this range.
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The meta-analysis included 20 articles (22 independent studies), comprising 40,485 pregnant women and 4402 gestational diabetes mellitus participants.
“The initial search yielded 4368 relevant articles in the database. Following the elimination of 4348 ineligible articles, 20 articles were ultimately included (a total of 22 independent studies), which included 40,485 pregnant women and 4402 GDM participants [10, 14, 16–18, 28–42].”
From Physical activity during pregnancy and the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and dose–response meta-analysis (2024) · cites this paper as [14]
Risk factors for type 2 diabetes include overweight and obesity, physical inactivity, age, family history, race and ethnicity, history of gestational diabetes, and presence of other conditions (eg, hypertension, dyslipidemia, cardiovascular disease).
“Risk factors for type 2 diabetes include overweight and obesity, physical inactivity, age, family history, race and ethnicity, history of gestational diabetes, and presence of other conditions (eg, hypertension, dyslipidemia, cardiovascular disease).9–14”
From Diagnosis and Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes in Adults (2025) · cites this paper as [9]
Physical activity is an effective regimen to lower the risk of developing diabetes by improving β-cell function.
“Several studies have demonstrated that physical activity is an effective regimen to lower the risk of developing diabetes by improving the β-cell function (172).”
From Diabetes and Sarcopenic Obesity: Pathogenesis, Diagnosis, and Treatments (2020) · cites this paper as [172]
Lack of physical activity is a risk factor for ASCVD such as CAD and cerebrovascular disease.
“It is also a risk factor for ASCVD such as CAD and cerebrovascular disease577–587).”
From Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS) guidelines for prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases 2017 (2018) · cites this paper as [577]
Lack of physical activity is associated with increased body fat (obesity), dyslipidemia, metabolic syndrome, hypertension, diabetes/impaired glucose tolerance, vascular endothelial dysfunction, and decreased physical fitness.
“Lack of physical activity is associated with increased body fat (obesity), dyslipidemia, metabolic syndrome, hypertension, diabetes/impaired glucose tolerance, vascular endothelial dysfunction, and decreased physical fitness.”
From Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS) guidelines for prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases 2017 (2018) · cites this paper as [577]
Six of the 8 reports of systematic review and meta-analysis reported a significant increase in HDL-C levels.
“Six reported a significant increase in HDL-C levels, which was the most frequently observed effect of exercise on serum lipids577, 607–613).”
From Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS) guidelines for prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases 2017 (2018) · cites this paper as [577]
Among 8 reports of systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs comparing exercise and non-exercise control, significant decreases in LDL-C and TG levels were reported in two articles, respectively.
“Among 8 reports of systematic review and metaanalysis of RCTs with comparison of exercise and non-exercise control including Japanese participants and were published after 2,000, significant decreases in LDL-C and TG levels were reported in two articles, respectively.”
From Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS) guidelines for prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases 2017 (2018) · cites this paper as [577]
Evidence suggests that low-intensity physical activity may be similarly as effective as moderate to intense physical activity in preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus.
“Moreover, evidence suggests that low-intensity physical activity may be similarly as effective as moderate to intense physical activity in preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus,360 which is a concern in nondiabetic adults with RH.”
From Resistant Hypertension: Detection, Evaluation, and Management: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association (2018) · cites this paper as [360]
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- Authors
- Aune, D., Norat, T., Leitzmann, M., Tonstad, S., & Vatten, L. J.
- Affiliations
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- University Hospital Regensburg (DE)
- Oslo University Hospital (NO)
- Corresponding author
- Aune, Dagfinn
- Venue
- European Journal of Epidemiology
- Published
- 2015-06-20
- Volume
- 30
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 529-542
- ISSN
- 0393-2990 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-7284
- OpenAlex
- W581981666
- Cited by
- 880
- References
- 114
- Citations by year
- 2026: 69 · 2025: 95 · 2024: 90 · 2023: 83 · 2022: 109 · 2021: 103 · 2020: 83 · 2019: 87 · 2018: 78 · 2017: 44 · 2016: 31 · 2015: 6
- FWCI
- 6.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- European Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- University of Regensburg Publication Server (University of Regensburg) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Norges Teknisk-Naturvitenskapelige Universitet
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Physical Activity and Health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Molecular Biology › Metabolism, Diabetes, and Cancer
- Keywords
- physical activity, type 2 diabetes, diabetes risk, dose-response relationship, leisure-time physical activity, high-intensity exercise, moderate physical activity, walking, resistance training, cardiorespiratory fitness, occupational physical activity, adiposity, nonlinear dose-response relationship
- MeSH terms
- Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Humans, Leisure Activities, Motor Activity, Physical Fitness, Prospective Studies, Sports, Exercise, Walking
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