Impact of 10 years of adaptive multi-paddock grazing on soil carbon and beef's greenhouse gas footprint in the US Upper Midwest
Open accessAbstract
CONTEXT Adaptive multi-paddock (AMP) grazing has been discussed as an option to reduce beef production's greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint via its potential impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) accrual. This is especially relevant for the grazing-based cow-calf production phase, responsible for most beef GHGs and where practical mitigation options remain limited. However, existing AMP studies are too few, often short-term, and have key limitations in estimating SOC and GHGs to provide real confidence in its mitigation potential. OBJECTIVE To evaluate decade-scale impacts of AMP grazing on net GHG emissions in beef production systems. METHODS We conducted a life cycle assessment (LCA) using 11 years of on-farm data from an experimental research site in Michigan, USA. We compared two beef production systems, incorporating different combinations of AMP grazing within conventional production phases: AMP-GF (grass-finishing) and AMP-FL (feedlot-finishing), both using AMP grazing for cow-calf and stocker phases. The LCA accounted for all standard GHG sources (i.e., emissions from enteric fermentation, manure management, feed production, on-farm energy use, transportation) and incorporated both measured and modeled SOC change (0–30 cm) over 11 years. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS AMP-grazed pastures accrued an estimated 0.52 Mg C ha −1 yr −1 , based on a conservative SOC estimate informed by field measurements and model outputs. Incorporating this SOC change into the LCA reduced net GHG intensities to ∼17 kg CO 2 -e kg CW −1 for both systems, corresponding to 41% (AMP-GF) and 34% (AMP-FL) reductions relative to their baselines. SIGNIFICANCE This study provides rare, decade-scale, system-wide evidence across the full beef lifecycle, showing that AMP grazing can meaningfully mitigate beef GHG emissions through sustained SOC accrual in the Upper Midwest.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
A decade-scale life cycle assessment at a Michigan research farm found that adaptive multi-paddock grazing accrued soil organic carbon and cut net beef greenhouse gas intensity by 34–41% relative to gross emissions. Both AMP grass-finished and AMP feedlot-finished systems reached about 17 kg CO₂-e kg CW⁻¹ under a conservative measure-plus-model SOC estimate.
Key findings
- AMP-grazed pastures accrued an estimated 0.52 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (0–30 cm) over 11 years using the Measure + model approach; SOC increased in AMP pastures (p = 0.02) while the control area remained relatively unchanged (p = 0.93).
- Gross GHG footprints were 29.4 ± 4.5 kg CO₂-e kg CW⁻¹ for AMP-GF and 25.6 ± 3.7 kg CO₂-e kg CW⁻¹ for AMP-FL; enteric CH₄ was the largest source (73% and 67%, respectively), and the cow-calf phase dominated emissions (82% and 80%).
- Incorporating SOC accrual reduced net GHG intensities to 17.2 kg CO₂-e kg CW⁻¹ for AMP-GF and 17.0 kg CO₂-e kg CW⁻¹ for AMP-FL, corresponding to 41% and 34% reductions relative to their baselines.
- AMP-FL produced 19% more beef annually than AMP-GF (36.1 vs. 30.4 t CW yr⁻¹) and 26% more beef per hectare (129 vs. 102 kg CW ha⁻¹); AMP-GF would require about 21% more land to produce the same annual carcass weight.
Methods
- Deterministic cradle-to-farm-gate Excel-based LCA comparing AMP-GF (AMP grazing during cow-calf, stocker, and grass-finishing) and AMP-FL (AMP grazing during cow-calf and stocker, then feedlot-finishing), using 11 years (2012–2023) of on-farm data from Michigan State University’s Lake City AgBioResearch Center; feedlot data came from Stanley et al. (2018).
- GHG sources included enteric CH₄, manure CH₄ and N₂O, feed production, on-farm energy, and transportation; emissions used IPCC Tier 2 methods and GWP100 factors (CH₄ = 27, N₂O = 273), expressed as kg CO₂-e kg CW⁻¹, with uncertainty of ±20% for CH₄, ±50% for N₂O, and ±20% for non-animal direct GHGs.
- SOC was measured at T₀ (2012), T₁ (2016), and T₂ (2023) for 0–30 cm (186 samples total), analyzed with a linear mixed model using site as a random effect, equivalent soil mass correction, and clay/silt covariates; the SALUS process model was used to set a conservative T₀ baseline, and the main LCA used the Measure + model SOC estimate, with Measure and Model approaches as sensitivity analyses.
Limitations
- Stated: the T₀ baseline had low sampling and site density (3 sites vs. 9 later), samples were analyzed across different laboratories, and a model-supported T₀ baseline was therefore used; enteric CH₄ was likely overestimated by IPCC Tier 2 assumptions, including a regional Ym of 6.5% and DMI adjustments, with on-site CH₄ about 17% and 24% lower than modeled for lactating cows and finishers, respectively; unmeasured production groups were scaled by metabolic body weight.
- Stated: results are region-specific and cannot be extrapolated beyond the study period or region; legacy effects from pre-2010/2012 management cannot be ruled out; the control site was not ideal; discrete sampling intervals limit detection of nonlinear SOC trends; longer and more frequent measurements are needed.
- Evident from the text: this is a single-farm case study, and the feedlot phase was not based on the same 11-year on-farm dataset but on a prior 90-day trial and a simulated 171-day feedlot period; the LCA is deterministic with uncertainty assigned from IPCC/expert-based values.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
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Cites
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Claims the paper makes
36 of 81 cited sources checked · 20 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Existing studies on AMP and SOC have generally relied on space-for-time comparisons rather than longitudinal data.
“Existing studies on AMP and SOC have generally relied on space-for-time comparisons rather than longitudinal data (Machmuller et al., 2015;Mehre et al., 2024;Rowntree et al., 2020;Wang et al., 2015), focused on cropland-to-pasture transitions (Machmuller et al., 2015;Mehre et al., 2024;Rowntree et al., 2020), or evaluated only short-term shifts from conventional grazing (Stanley et al., 2018).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked- cites Machmuller et al., 2015 source
The Abstract describes this study as a chronosequence comparing pastures established in different years, supporting its use as a space-for-time example. It also says the authors sampled across the pastures over two years, so the study did include repeated measurements; this paper alone does not establish what existing studies generally relied on. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites Mehre et al., 2024 source
- cites Rowntree et al., 2020 source
The Soil Carbon Sequestration section says this study estimated SOC change using a space-for-time substitution rather than direct measurements over time. It does not establish the broader claim that existing AMP–SOC studies have generally used that approach. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Initial evidence from beef LCAs incorporating AMP grazing induced SOC accrual suggests substantial GHG mitigation potential, with reported reductions from 65 to 169% lower relative to footprints without SOC offsets.
“Initial evidence from beef life cycle assessments (LCAs) incorporating AMP grazing induced SOC accrual suggest substantial GHG mitigation potential.Relative to GHG footprints calculated without considering offsets from SOC accrual, reported GHG footprints incorporating measured SOC accrual suggested reductions from 65 to 169% lower (Mehre et al., 2024;Rowntree et al., 2020;Stanley et al., 2018).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked- cites Mehre et al., 2024 source
- cites Rowntree et al., 2020 source
The Net GHG Footprint and Land Use section reports that incorporating measured soil-carbon accrual reduced this system’s LCA footprint by 80%, from 20.8 to 4.1 kg CO₂-e per kg carcass weight. That supports substantial mitigation and falls within the cited range, but this paper does not report the range’s 65% and 169% endpoints; its separate 66% figure compares the resulting footprint with conventional production, not with its own footprint before the SOC offset. The Soil Carbon Sequestration section describes its grazing approach as analogous to AMP grazing rather than AMP grazing itself. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites Stanley et al., 2018 source
- Premisecitation
The majority of GHG emissions in US beef production systems originate from the grazing phases (cow-calf and stocker), which account for ~70-80% of total beef emissions.
“The majority of GHG emissions in these systems originate from the grazing phases-cow-calf and stocker production-which account for ~70-80% of total beef emissions (Pelton et al., 2024;Rotz et al., 2019).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites Pelton et al., 2024 source
The ‘Aggregate US beef industry baseline emissions’ section attributes the majority of emissions to grazing, but gives its share as 64%, not approximately 70–80%. The ‘Spatial distribution of beef emissions and emission intensity’ section likewise identifies grazing as the largest stage and reports 64%. No page numbers are provided in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.92)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites Rotz et al., 2019 source
- Premisecitation
Compared to continuous grazing systems, AMP grazing is thought to bolster SOC accrual by adaptively optimizing grazing frequency, timing, duration, and intensity, thereby increasing SOC inputs, reducing losses, and improving the efficiency of below-ground transformations.
“Compared to continuous grazing systems, AMP grazing is thought to bolster SOC accrual by adaptively optimizing grazing frequency, timing, duration, and intensity, thereby increasing SOC inputs, reducing losses, and improving the efficiency of below-ground transformations”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked - Premisecitation
Some studies compared SOC between AMP and conventional grazing at one timepoint and therefore could not report accrual rates.
“Additionally, some studies compared SOC between AMP and conventional grazing at one timepoint (Mosier et al., 2022;Stanley et al., 2025) and therefore could not report accrual rates.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
- Study design and conductcitation
Following conservative accounting principles in natural climate solutions, and given high uncertainty associated with T0 sampling, we used the SALUS model to establish a more conservative T0 baseline through retrospective carbon-balance validation.
“Following conservative accounting principles in natural climate solutions (Ellis et al., 2024), and given the high uncertainty associated with T 0 sampling, we used the process-based System Approach to Land Use Sustainability (SALUS) model to establish a more conservative T 0 baseline through retrospective carbon-balance validation (Section 2.4.4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites Ellis et al., 2024 source
- Premisecitation
Most farm-level LCAs either exclude SOC from net emissions or extrapolate literature estimates due to the lack of on-farm data or reliable SOC models for grazing systems.
“Most farm-level LCAs either exclude SOC from net emissions (Cusack et al., 2021) or extrapolate literature estimates (Pelletier et al., 2010) due to the lack of on-farm data or reliable SOC models for grazing systems that adequately capture management complexity (Gerber et al., 2013).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked - Premisecitation
Existing studies on AMP and SOC have evaluated only short-term shifts from conventional grazing.
“or evaluated only short-term shifts from conventional grazing (Stanley et al., 2018).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites Stanley et al., 2018 source
- Premisecitation
Existing studies on AMP and SOC have focused on cropland-to-pasture transitions.
“focused on cropland-to-pasture transitions (Machmuller et al., 2015;Mehre et al., 2024;Rowntree et al., 2020)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked - Premisereasoning
Even the most effective additives-such as 3-nitrooxypropanol or red seaweed (Asparagopsis taxiformis), which can reduce CH4 by 30-80% in feedlot diets-have limited influence on cow-calf-to-finish emissions.
“As a result, even the most effective additives—such as 3-nitrooxypropanol or red seaweed (Asparagopsis taxiformis), which can reduce CH 4 by 30-80% in feedlot diets (Beauchemin et al., 2022;Roque et al., 2021)—have limited influence on cow-calf-to-finish emissions.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked - Premisecitation
Because of the need for controlled feeding, most existing options are designed for confined, non-grazing systems.
“Because of the need for controlled feeding, most existing options are designed for confined, non-grazing systems (Beauchemin et al., 2022).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites Beauchemin et al., 2022 source
The Summary of Mitigation Strategies says feed-based strategies require a way to deliver supplements and that substantially less research is available for partial grazing than for confined systems. But it also says these strategies can be used in partial grazing systems with supplementation, so the claim’s restriction to non-grazing systems is too narrow. The provided passages give no page number. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Study design and conductcitation
Our regional Ym default of 6.5% is likely an overestimate: the clippings we used for forage digestibility analysis included lower and less-digestible plant parts that cattle at LCRC often avoided under the ~50% utilization target, potentially inflating modeled CH4 estimates.
“Our regional Ym default of 6.5% (EPA, 2023) is also likely an overestimate: the clippings we used for forage digestibility analysis included lower and less-digestible plant parts that cattle at LCRC often avoided under the ~50% utilization target (Thompson et al., 2021), potentially inflating modeled CH 4 estimates.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites EPA, 2023
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Thompson et al., 2021 source
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Study design and conductcitation
Soil samples were analyzed across different laboratories, introducing unknown uncertainty from differences in sample handling and processing, despite all using dry combustion, the analytical gold standard.
“Soil samples were also analyzed across different laboratories, introducing unknown uncertainty from differences in sample handling and processing, despite all using dry combustion, the analytical gold standard (Brinton et al., 2025;Even et al., 2025).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites Brinton et al., 2025 source
- cites Even et al., 2025 source
Section 2.1 reports sending soil samples to eight external laboratories, and section 4.1 attributes the larger spread in carbon measurements partly to inconsistent processing methods. Section 2.4 calls dry combustion the most accurate method for total-carbon measurement. Our copy does not establish that all eight external laboratories used dry combustion, so that qualification is unsupported. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Findingown data
Incorporating SOC change into the LCA reduced net GHG intensities to ~17 kg CO 2 -e kg CW -1 for both AMP-GF and AMP-FL systems.
“Incorporating this SOC change into the LCA reduced net GHG intensities to ~17 kg CO 2 -e kg CW -1 for both systems, corresponding to 41% (AMP-GF) and 34% (AMP-FL) reductions relative to their baselines.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: SOC equilibrium for all feed produced from cropland and off-farm hayland.
- Findingown data
AMP-grazed pastures accrued an estimated 0.52 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 , based on a conservative SOC estimate informed by field measurements and model outputs.
“AMP-grazed pastures accrued an estimated 0.52 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 , based on a conservative SOC estimate informed by field measurements and model outputs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
4-7% of AMP-FL feed was derived from potentially human-edible sources.
“4-7% of which were derived from potentially human-edible sources (Table A.7).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
AMP-GF resulted in a 15% greater GHG footprint (29.4 ± 4.5 kg CO2e kg-1 CW) than AMP-FL (25.6 ± 3.7 kg CO2-e kg-1 CW).
“AMP-GF resulted in a 15% greater GHG footprint (29.4 ± 4.5 kg CO 2e kg -1 CW) than AMP-FL (25.6 ± 3.7 kg CO 2 -e kg -1 CW) (Fig. 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation
The cow-calf phase has the greatest percentage of GHG emissions and land use.
“As others have reported (Beauchemin et al., 2010;Rotz et al., 2019), and similar to our study (Figs.1B and 2), the cow-calf phase has the greatest percentage of GHG emissions and land use.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Findingown data
AMP-FL produced 19% more beef annually than AMP-GF (36.1 t CW yr-1 vs. 30.4 t CW yr-1).
“AMP-FL produced 19% more beef annually than AMP-GF (36.1 t CW yr -1 vs. 30.4t CW yr -1 ; Fig. 1A)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
SOC stocks remained relatively unchanged in the control area (p = 0.93).
“but remained relatively unchanged in the control area (p = 0.93) (Fig. A.7).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Using the Measure + model SOC estimate, SOC stocks increased at an average rate of 0.52 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 between T0 (2012) and T2 (2023).
“Using the Measure + model SOC estimate, SOC stocks increased at an average rate of 0.52 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 between T 0 (2012) and T 2 (2023) (Table 1; Fig. 3A).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
SOC stocks increased in AMP pastures between 2012 and 2023 (p = 0.02).
“SOC stocks increased in AMP pastures between 2012 and 2023 (p = 0.02)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Manure CH4 emissions were 2.6 times higher in AMP-FL than AMP-GF on an absolute basis.
“manure CH 4 emissions were 2.6 times higher in AMP-FL on an absolute basis (Table A.8).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Enteric CH4 was the largest contributor to total GHGs in both systems, accounting for 73% of emissions in AMP-GF and 67% in AMP-FL.
“Enteric CH 4 was the largest contributor to total GHGs in both systems, accounting for 73% of emissions in AMP-GF and 67% in AMP-FL”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
AMP-FL produced 26% more beef per hectare than AMP-GF (129 vs. 102 kg CW ha-1).
“The AMP-FL system produced 26% more beef per hectare than AMP-GF (129 vs. 102 kg CW ha -1 ; Table A.7)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Over 11 years of AMP grazing management, SOC stocks in the top 30 cm of pasture soils at LCRC increased across all estimation approaches.
“Over 11 years of AMP grazing management, SOC stocks in the top 30 cm of pasture soils at LCRC—the grazing base for both AMP-GF and AMP-FL—increased across all estimation approaches.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Manure N2O and feed production made up most of the remaining emissions (~24% in AMP-GF and ~29% in AMP-FL).
“while manure N 2 O and feed production made up most of the remaining emissions (~24% in AMP-GF and ~ 29% in AMP-FL; Fig. 2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Both AMP-FL and AMP-GF produced the same amount of carcass weight from the cow-calf and stocker phases.
“as both systems produced the same amount of CW from the cow-calf and stocker phases.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The cow-calf phase dominated emissions (82% in AMP-GF and 80% in AMP-FL).
“with the cow-calf phase dominating emissions (82% in AMP-GF and 80% in AMP-FL).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Incorporating 11-year SOC accrual into the GHG balance substantially reduced the emissions of both AMP-GF and AMP-FL systems.
“Incorporating 11-year SOC accrual into the GHG balance substantially reduced the emissions of both AMP-GF and AMP-FL systems.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
GHG intensity per unit land was ~10% lower for AMP-GF than AMP-FL.
“GHG intensity per unit land was ~10% lower for AMP-GF than AMP-FL (Table A.8).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning
The cow-calf phase accounted for a greater share of total CW in AMP-GF (51%) than in AMP-FL (43%).
“In contrast, the cow-calf phase accounted for a greater share in AMP-GF (51% vs. 43% in AMP-FL), while stocker contributions were similar across systems (Fig. 1A).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingcitation
Our AMP-GF footprint was ~15% lower than the value reported for a conventionally grazed cow-calf to grass-finishing system in the Upper Midwest using the same IPCC methodologies (Pelletier et al., 2010).
“our AMP-GF footprint was ~15% lower than the value reported for a conventionally grazed cowcalf to grass-finishing system in the Upper Midwest using the same IPCC methodologies (Pelletier et al., 2010)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Pelletier et al., 2010 source
- Findingown data
Both empirical data and model outputs suggest a slowing of SOC accrual rates over time.
“While both empirical data and model outputs suggest a slowing of SOC accrual rates over time”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
Winter feeding was spatially limited, with each paddock used only ~3 times over 11 years.
“Winter feeding was also spatially limited, with each paddock used only ~3 times over 11 years.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Our 11-year dataset shows that SOC continued to accumulate over more than a decade of management.
“Our 11-year dataset provides valuable insight into the persistence of SOC gains under AMP grazing, showing that SOC continued to accumulate over more than a decade of management.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation
Our AMP-FL footprint (25.6 kg CO2-e kg CW-1) matches the regional estimate reported by Rotz et al. (2019) using a Tier 3 process-based model (25.5 kg CO2-e kg CW-1).
“our AMP-FL footprint (25.6 kg CO 2 -e kg CW -1 ) matches the regional estimate reported by Rotz et al. (2019) using a Tier 3 process-based model (25.5 kg CO 2 -e kg CW -1 )”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Rotz et al. (2019) source
- Findingown data
Incorporating SOC accrual, measured as a result of 11 years of AMP grazing at our study site, as an emissions sink reduced the net GHG footprints of the AMP-GF and AMP-FL systems by 41% and 34%, respectively.
“Incorporating SOC accrual, measured as a result of 11 years of AMP grazing at our study site, as an emissions sink reduced the net GHG footprints of the AMP-GF and AMP-FL systems by 41% and 34%, respectively, in this study.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Even assuming partial stabilization, wasted hay contributes <1% of the 0.52 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 SOC accrual rate.
“Even assuming partial stabilization, we estimate that wasted hay contributes <1% of our 0.52 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 SOC accrual rate”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Our sensitivity analysis using farm generated data for AMP-GF reduced total enteric CH4 by 3% (~21 t of CO2-e).
“Our sensitivity analysis using farm generated data for AMP-GF reduced total enteric CH 4 by 3% (~21 t of CO 2 -e; Table A .9).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
On-site measurements support this-CH4 was ~17% and ~24% lower than modeled values for lactating cows and finishers, respectively.
“On-site measurements support this—CH 4 was ~17% and ~ 24% lower than modeled values for lactating cows and finishers, respectively (Table A.9).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The SOC accrual rate for AMP grazing averaged over 11 years was 0.52 Mg C ha−1 yr−1.
“Using our resulting SOC accrual rate of 0.52 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 averaged over 11 years of AMP grazing”
- Also stated in: § 5. Conclusions and implications · plain
“corresponding to an 11-year accrual rate of 0.52 Mg C ha -1 yr -1”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § 5. Conclusions and implications · plain
- Findingreasoning
Both AMP systems (AMP-GF and AMP-FL) achieved similar net GHG footprints of ~17 kg CO2-e kg CW−1.
“both AMP systems achieved similar net footprints of ~17 kg CO 2 -e kg CW -1”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
AMP-GF requires ~21% more land to produce the same beef output than AMP-FL.
“AMP-GF requires ~21% more land to produce the same beef output.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
The cow-calf phase contributes the most to beef GHG emissions due to its year-round duration on lower quality forages, reproductive inefficiencies, and large cattle numbers.
“The cow-calf phase contributes the most due to its year-round duration on lower quality forages, reproductive inefficiencies, and large cattle numbers (Stackhouse-Lawson et al., 2012).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Stackhouse-Lawson et al., 2012 source
- Interpretationown data
AMP grazing can meaningfully mitigate beef GHG emissions through sustained SOC accrual in the Upper Midwest.
“This study provides rare, decade-scale, system-wide evidence across the full beef lifecycle, showing that AMP grazing can meaningfully mitigate beef GHG emissions through sustained SOC accrual in the Upper Midwest.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: SOC equilibrium for all feed produced from cropland and off-farm hayland.
- Interpretationown data
SOC accrual from AMP grazing may offer decade-scale GHG offsetting benefits.
“SOC accrual from AMP grazing may offer decade-scale GHG offsetting benefits.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The difference in annual beef production between AMP-FL and AMP-GF was driven by greater productivity during the finishing phase.
“driven by greater productivity during the finishing phase (Table A.6), as both systems produced the same amount of CW from the cow-calf and stocker phases.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
If both systems produced the same annual CW output, AMP-FL would require ~21% less land (278 ha vs. 354 ha).
“If both systems were to hypothetically produce the same annual CW output, AMP-FL would require ~21% less land (278 ha vs. 354 ha).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisenone given
None of the previous studies integrated SOC measurements with process-based modeling to assess whether observed changes are biophysically plausible from a carbon-balance perspective.
“Moreover, none of the previous studies integrated SOC measurements with process-based modeling to assess whether observed changes are biophysically plausible from a carbon-balance perspective (i.e., given the carbon inputs), reducing confidence in the inferred management effects.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
This study demonstrates the potential of AMP grazing to mitigate the GHG footprint of beef production in the Upper Midwest, USA, through its impacts on SOC accrual.
“This study demonstrates the potential of AMP grazing to mitigate the GHG footprint of beef production in the Upper Midwest, USA, through its impacts on SOC accrual.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductcitation
Using a power analysis and spatial heterogeneity data from 2016, we estimated that 103 samples were needed to detect statistically significant changes in SOC with 80% power, assuming a 30% relative increase from 2016.
“Using a power analysis web app (https://scf.berkeley.edu/shiny/bosf/soil-carbon-statistics/;Stanley et al., 2023) and spatial heterogeneity data from 2016, we estimated that 103 samples were needed to detect statistically significant changes in SOC with 80% power, assuming a 30% relative increase from 2016.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Stanley et al., 2023 source
- Interpretationreasoning
Improving SOC accrual within the cow-calf stage offers the greatest opportunity for GHG mitigation in beef production.
“Accordingly, improving SOC accrual within this stage offers the greatest opportunity for GHG mitigation in beef production.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
AMP grazing can fundamentally reshape the net GHG footprint and climate impacts of beef production systems via SOC accrual.
“Our findings demonstrate that AMP grazing can fundamentally reshape the net GHG footprint and climate impacts of beef production systems via SOC accrual.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Although winter hay could have provided a minor additional C input, this contribution is likely negligible.
“Although winter hay could have provided a minor additional C input, this contribution is likely negligible.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductreasoning
Uncertainty in baseline SOC estimates limits our ability to attribute the slowing pattern definitively to diminishing returns.
“uncertainty in baseline SOC estimates limits our ability to attribute this pattern definitively to diminishing returns.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
AMP-driven SOC gains observed in our study may provide larger and more scalable GHG reductions for beef systems than many existing and emerging mitigation options.
“AMP-driven SOC gains observed in our study may provide larger and more scalable GHG reductions for beef systems than many existing and emerging mitigation options.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
A decline in accrual rate does not necessarily indicate that saturation is imminent.
“Therefore, a decline in accrual rate does not necessarily indicate that saturation is imminent.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationnone given
Our use of conservative Tier 2 IPCC assumptions may overestimate enteric CH4.
“despite our use of conservative Tier 2 IPCC assumptions that may overestimate enteric CH 4 .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationcitation
Our gross overall GHG footprints and their distribution across emission sources and production phases align well with values reported for comparable beef systems in the ecoregion.
“Our gross overall GHG footprints and their distribution across emission sources and production phases align well with values reported for comparable beef systems in the ecoregion”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Improving management within existing grazing systems (e.g., the cow-calf and stocker phases) provides a low-cost and practical pathway for system-level mitigation.
“Improving management within existing grazing systems (e.g., the cowcalf and stocker phases) therefore provides a low-cost and practical pathway for system-level mitigation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Our results provide strong evidence that AMP grazing can achieve conservative yet meaningful SOC gains that exceed typical literature estimates for temperate pasture systems.
“our results provide strong evidence that AMP grazing can achieve conservative yet meaningful SOC gains that exceed typical literature estimates for temperate pasture systems.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductcitation
Baseline (T0) SOC measurements were collected with low sampling and site density, a common challenge in SOC and grazing research.
“Baseline (T 0 ) SOC measurements were collected with low sampling and site density, a common challenge in SOC and grazing research (Stanley et al., 2023).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Stanley et al., 2023 source
- Interpretationown data
The intensity of grazing management, rather than input intensity, can substantially offset GHG emissions from cow-calf to both grain-and grass-finished systems through sustained SOC accumulation.
“Our results demonstrate that the intensity of grazing management, rather than input intensity, can substantially offset GHG emissions from cow-calf to both grain-and grass-finished systems through sustained SOC accumulation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The greater mitigation in AMP-GF reflects the continued influence of SOC accrual during the grass-finishing phase.
“The greater mitigation in AMP-GF reflects the continued influence of SOC accrual during the grass-finishing phase”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Meaningful GHG reductions can be achieved when SOC accumulation is optimized during the typically grazed cow-calf and stocker stages.
“These results show that meaningful GHG reductions can be achieved when SOC accumulation is optimized during the typically grazed cow-calf and stocker stages.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
AMP grazing in cow-calf to finish systems in the Upper Midwest can substantially reduce the GHG footprint of beef production, even when cattle are feedlot-finished or under the most conservative SOC accrual rates.
“Overall, our findings demonstrate that AMP grazing in cow-calf to finish systems can be an effective GHG mitigation tool, even when cattle are feedlot-finished or using the most conservative SOC accrual rates.”
- Also stated in: § 5. Conclusions and implications · plain
“This study provides critical insights into the decade-long potential of AMP grazing to mitigate the GHG footprint of beef production through SOC accrual in grazing operations.”
- Also stated in: § 5. Conclusions and implications · plain
“3) substantially reduce the GHG footprint of cow-calf to finish systems, even under the most conservative SOC accrual rates.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The studied AMP systems are representative of commercial-scale cow-calf to finish systems in the Upper Midwest.
- Rests on an assumption: There is a major gap in the scientific literature regarding comprehensive LCA-based assessments of AMP grazing's impact on the GHG balance of beef production.
- Also stated in: § 5. Conclusions and implications · plain
- Interpretationown data
AMP grazing in the Upper Midwest can preserve and enhance SOC stocks in grazing systems.
“2) preserve and enhance SOC stocks in grazing systems”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The studied AMP systems are representative of commercial-scale cow-calf to finish systems in the Upper Midwest.
- May combine two claims. 47
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 29
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationPast studies have failed to robustly inform the long-term GHG impacts of AMP grazing, largely due to the scarcity of studies measuring SOC over time.
“Past studies have failed to robustly inform its long-term GHG impacts.This gap is largely due to the scarcity of studies measuring SOC over time, primarily because AMP's adaptive nature limits its study in traditional agricultural research (Roche, 2016;Teague et al., 2013).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites Roche, 2016 source
The Conclusions (page unavailable) call for management-scale, participatory research, but do not say that AMP grazing is difficult to study using traditional methods. Searches for soil organic carbon, SOC, greenhouse-gas impacts, and longitudinal measurements found no passage addressing the claimed research gap or its proposed cause. (LLM, conf=0.75)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites Teague et al., 2013 source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationMost LCAs on AMP grazing compare fully AMP-managed systems to fully conventional ones, which may be interpreted as AMP and feedlots being incompatible, even though AMP grazing could be integrated into earlier production phases.
“Additionally, most LCAs on AMP grazing compare fully AMPmanaged systems to fully conventional ones (Rowntree et al., 2020;Stanley et al., 2018), which may be interpreted as AMP and feedlots being incompatible, even though AMP grazing could be integrated into earlier production phases.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites Rowntree et al., 2020 source
The Abstract and Introduction (pages unavailable) describe this paper’s whole-farm comparison of a multispecies pasture-rotation system with conventional production. That supports an example of the comparison described, but the paper does not establish that most LCAs of AMP grazing use this design; its studied system is also not specifically an AMP-grazing system. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites Stanley et al., 2018 source
The Introduction describes this paper as a comparison of feedlot and AMP-grazing finishing, so it supports the citation as an example of that comparison. But it explicitly calls the study a partial LCA of the finishing phase; it does not establish that most AMP-grazing LCAs compare fully AMP-managed systems with fully conventional ones. The sentence’s interpretation about compatibility and earlier production phases is the citing authors’ framing, not a finding attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningWe conducted a sensitivity analysis comparing the IPCC Tier 2 method with measured LCRC data and the simplified IPCC Tier 2 approach for enteric CH4 emissions.
“Given the sensitivity of enteric CH 4 emissions to diet and intake levels, and their dominance in the beef footprint, we conducted a sensitivity analysis comparing the IPCC Tier 2 method with measured LCRC data (Chiavegato et al., 2015a;Thompson et al., 2021) and the simplified IPCC Tier 2 approach (IPCC, 2019).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked- cites Chiavegato et al., 2015a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Thompson et al., 2021 source
- cites IPCC, 2019
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationTools intended for grazing cattle generally remain early in development; CH4 vaccines show minimal or inconsistent in vivo effects, and red seaweed additives have so far produced only short-term reductions in small grazing trials.
“Tools intended for grazing cattle generally remain early in development; for example, CH 4 vaccines show minimal or inconsistent in vivo effects (Beauchemin et al., 2022), and red seaweed additives have so far produced only short-term reductions in small grazing trials (Meo-Filho et al., 2024)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe average SOC accrual rate was 0.52 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, which is ~1.5-2× greater than commonly cited mean accrual rates for improved grazing management (0.28 Mg C ha-1 yr-1; Conant et al., 2017; 0.32 Mg C ha-1 yr-1; Dondini et al., 2023).
“This resulted in an average SOC accrual rate of 0.52 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 , which is ~1.5-2× greater than commonly cited mean accrual rates for improved grazing management (0.28 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 ; Conant et al., 2017; 0.32 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 ; Dondini et al., 2023).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites Conant et al., 2017 source
- cites Dondini et al., 2023
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationAcross much of this grazingland base, SOC stocks fall below estimated ecosystem potential, shaped by long-term land-use and grazing management history.
“Across much of this grazingland base, SOC stocks fall below estimated ecosystem potential (Sanderman et al., 2017), shaped by long-term land-use and grazing management history.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites Sanderman et al., 2017 source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationMost agricultural soils-particularly those with a history of degradation-remain far below the SOC saturation threshold.
“Although SOC saturation represents a theoretical upper limit, most agricultural soils—particularly those with a history of degradation—remain far below this threshold (Georgiou et al., 2022;Georgiou et al., 2025;Sanderman et al., 2017).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim3 of 3 sources checked- cites Georgiou et al., 2022 source
In Results and discussion, the paper reports that agricultural systems averaged 31 ± 2% saturation and that most current and abandoned agricultural lands are considerably below their mineralogical carbon capacity, consistent with the claim about degraded agricultural soils. The qualification is that the paper measures saturation of mineral-associated organic carbon, not total SOC, and its estimated capacity is not an absolute upper limit: some soils exceed it. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites Georgiou et al., 2025 source
In “Approaches for Quantifying Saturation” (page unavailable), the paper says cropland soils are often carbon-depleted and average about 30% MAOC saturation, supporting the claim that many agricultural soils are well below saturation. The Introduction reports carbon losses from land-use degradation, but does not establish that previously degraded agricultural soils are particularly far below saturation. The quantified threshold concerns mineral-associated carbon (MAOC), rather than total SOC. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites Sanderman et al., 2017 source
The Abstract reports that SOC loss is more common across agricultural land, and the Results and Discussion identify SOC-loss hotspots associated with highly degraded land. But the paper compares current SOC with historical or nonagricultural stocks; it does not establish that most agricultural soils are far below a theoretical SOC saturation threshold. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationIn the US, efficiency-based strategies appear to have limited remaining scope, partly because the sector has historically been technology-driven.
“In the US, efficiency-based strategies appear to have limited remaining scope (Cusack et al., 2021;Pelton et al., 2024), partly because the sector has historically been technology-driven (Drouillard, 2018).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim3 of 3 sources checked- cites Cusack et al., 2021 source
- cites Pelton et al., 2024 source
The Main section says the US beef industry has made efficiency gains over the past 50 years, but does not assess how much scope remains for efficiency-based strategies. It explicitly places productivity improvements outside the study’s scope and calls them an important opportunity for future research. The technology-driven explanation is cited to Drouillard, not Pelton, so it is not part of this verdict. (LLM, conf=0.72)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites Drouillard, 2018 source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationSeveral alternative mitigation tools are technically available-mostly targeting enteric CH4-but substantial barriers still limit their scalability, including costs, regulatory approval, limited farm-scale testing, and low suitability in grazing settings.
“Several alternative mitigation tools are technically available—mostly targeting enteric CH 4 —but substantial barriers still limit their scalability, including costs, regulatory approval, limited farm-scale testing, and low suitability in grazing settings (Beauchemin et al., 2022).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites Beauchemin et al., 2022 source
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationRecent research suggests SOC is more dynamic than once believed, with stabilization and turnover influenced by climate, microbial activity, and land use.
“Recent research suggests SOC is more dynamic than once believed, with stabilization and turnover influenced by climate, microbial activity, and land use (Cotrufo et al., 2019;Hansen et al., 2024).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checkedClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationTo address these issues, we applied improved analytical methods, compared SOC stocks using equivalent soil mass to correct for temporal BD differences, and benchmarked AMP pastures against a non-grazed reference area.
“To address these issues, we applied improved analytical methods, compared SOC stocks using equivalent soil mass to correct for temporal BD differences (Fowler et al., 2023), and benchmarked AMP pastures against a non-grazed reference area (Fig. A.7;Table A.10).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites Fowler et al., 2023 source
May combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationOur study indicates that incorporating AMP grazing either partially (AMP-FL) or entirely (AMP-GF) leads to significantly improved ecological outcomes compared to conventional grazing and grass-finishing systems, and maintains production levels comparable to current systems in our region.
“Our study indicates that incorporating AMP grazing either partially (AMP-FL) or entirely (AMP-GF) not only leads to significantly improved ecological outcomes compared to conventional grazing and grass-finishing systems, but also maintains production levels comparable to current systems in our region (Asem-Hiablie et al., 2016;Lindquist, 2014;Pelletier et al., 2010).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked- cites Asem-Hiablie et al., 2016 source
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 1 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites Lindquist, 2014
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Pelletier et al., 2010 source
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe reductions in net GHG intensity relative to baselines were 41% for AMP-GF and 34% for AMP-FL.
“corresponding to 41% (AMP-GF) and 34% (AMP-FL) reductions relative to their baselines.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“AMP grazing cut beef GHG emissions by 34-41% under the measure + model approach.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: SOC equilibrium for all feed produced from cropland and off-farm hayland.
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataAMP-GF relied entirely on pastureland, while AMP-FL utilized 94.5% pastureland and 5.5% cropland.
“with AMP-GF relying entirely on pastureland, while AMP-FL utilized 94.5% pastureland and 5.5% cropland (Fig. 1B).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAMP-GF required 39 kg DM per kg CW produced, compared to 32 kg DM per kg CW produced in AMP-FL.
“Feed efficiency also varied, with AMP-GF requiring 39 kg DM kg -1 CW produced (100% pasture), compared to 32 kg DM kg -1 CW produced in AMP-FL”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataUsing the Measure + model SOC accrual rate of 0.52 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, the GHG footprints decreased by 41% for AMP-GF (from 29.4 to 17.2 kg CO2-e kg-1 CW) and 34% for AMP-FL (from 25.6 to 17.0 kg CO2-e kg-1 CW).
“Using the Measure + model SOC accrual rate of 0.52 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 as the main estimate, the GHG footprints decreased by 41% for AMP-GF (from 29.4 to 17.2 kg CO 2 -e kg -1 CW) and 34% for AMP-FL (from 25.6 to 17.0 kg CO 2 -e kg -1 CW) (Fig. 3B).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAMP-finished steers accounted for 10% of emissions and FL-finished steers for 13%.
“AMP-finished steers accounted for 10% of emissions and FL-finished steers for 13% (Fig. 2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe finishing phase contributed 51% of total CW in AMP-FL and 42% in AMP-GF.
“As a share of total CW, the finishing phase contributed 51% in AMP-FL, compared to 42% in AMP-GF.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataReplacing the IPCC Tier 2 method with on-farm measured data reduced enteric CH4 emissions by 3%, while using the simplified IPCC Tier 2 approach increased emissions by 10% for AMP-GF.
“our sensitivity analysis for AMP-GF showed that replacing the IPCC Tier 2 method used in this study with on-farm measured data reduced enteric CH 4 emissions by 3%, while using the simplified IPCC Tier 2 approach increased emissions by 10% (Table A.9).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAccounting for SOC accrual reduced net GHG intensities by 41% for AMP-GF and 34% for AMP-FL relative to their baselines.
“representing 41% and 34% reductions relative to their baselines for AMP-GF and AMP-FL, respectively.”
- Also stated in: § 5. Conclusions and implications · plain
“Accounting for SOC accrual reduced net GHG intensities (kg CO 2 -e kg CW -1 ) by 41% and 34%, respectively, relative to gross emissions.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Also stated in: § 5. Conclusions and implications · plain
Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenWe attempted to ensure that SL soil samples collected in 2012 and 2016 were from relatively close distances, and 2016 samples from SL soils were all within 100 m of the original locations.
“Notably, we attempted to ensure that SL soil samples collected in 2012 and 2016 were from relatively close distances.While we were unable to find exact coordinates from 2012 sample locations, we were able to ensure that 2016 samples collected from SL soils were all within 100 m of the original locations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataFrom 2012 onward, LCRC maintained a consistent herd size, allowing averaging of animal categories and numbers over 2012-2023 to generate an inventory comparable to commercial herds.
“From 2012 onward, LCRC maintained a consistent herd size, allowing us to average animal categories and numbers over 2012-2023 to generate an inventory comparable to commercial herds (Table A.3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Study design and conductcitationWe quantified uncertainties in farm-level GHG emissions following procedures previously used, applying ±20% uncertainty for enteric and manure-derived CH4, ±50% for N2O, and ±20% for non-animal direct GHGs, with overall uncertainty calculated as the square root of the sum of squares.
“We quantified uncertainties in farm-level GHG emissions following procedures previously used (Rotz et al., 2019;Stackhouse-Lawson et al., 2012), where uncertainty percentages were assigned to each source following IPCC (2006) based on expert opinion for their Tier 2 methodologies.We applied ±20% uncertainty for enteric and manurederived CH 4 , ±50% for N 2 O, and ± 20% for non-animal direct GHGs (”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationMeasured SOC responses to AMP grazing cannot be extrapolated to other regions, as grazing-mediated SOC changes are highly climate-dependent.
“Importantly, measured SOC responses to AMP grazing cannot be extrapolated to other regions, as grazing-mediated SOC changes are highly climate-dependent (McSherry and Ritchie, 2013).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites McSherry and Ritchie, 2013 source
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationThis long-term dataset captures inter-annual variability in inputs, production, and emissions, meeting FAO recommendations for LCA data quality.
“This long-term dataset captures inter-annual variability in inputs, production, and emissions, meeting FAO recommendations for LCA data quality (FAO, 2016).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites FAO, 2016
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationA recent 10-year rotational-grazing study offers rare long-term SOC observations, but its plot-scale setup, single annual composite per plot, and cropland-conversion history limit its applicability to AMP systems operating at whole-farm scales.
“Although a recent 10-year rotational-grazing study offers rare long-term SOC observations (Simmons et al., 2026), its plot-scale setup, single annual composite per plot, and cropland-conversion history limit its applicability to AMP systems operating at whole-farm scales.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Simmons et al., 2026 source
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenThis complete cradle-to-farm gate LCA encompassed all major GHG emissions and sinks associated with beef production, from feed production to transport to the slaughterhouse.
“This complete cradle-to-farm gate LCA encompassed all major GHG emissions and sinks associated with beef production, from feed production to transport to the slaughterhouse (Fig. A.3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Existing hayland and cropland supplied off-farm hay and crops, so land use change emissions were excluded.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Background soil N2O emissions from soil organic matter mineralization and crop residue decomposition are negligible and unchanged due to beef production, and emissions from machinery, infrastructure, and seed production are minor.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationWe established 30x50m sampling zones in the same areas sampled in 2016, used QGIS to randomly allocate sampling locations, and avoided sampling in locations with animal excreta, pathways, driveways, or near watering points to prevent bias.
“We established 30x50m sampling zones in the same areas sampled in 2016 to ensure adequate coverage and used QGIS to randomly allocate sampling locations within each of these zones (QGIS.org, 2023).We avoided sampling in locations with animal excreta, pathways, driveways, or near watering points to prevent bias (FAO, 2019).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites QGIS.org, 2023
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites FAO, 2019
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Premisenone givenThere is an absence, to the authors' knowledge, of a single study globally or domestically that simultaneously addresses all relevant factors for assessing AMP grazing as a tool to reduce beef emissions.
“A key barrier to assessing the potential of AMP grazing as a tool to reduce beef emissions is the absence, to our knowledge, of a single study-globally or domestically-that simultaneously addresses all relevant factors (e.g., long-term AMP grazing management with productivity data, integration of measured and modeled SOC change, full LCA accounting, incorporation of realistic scenarios combining a”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningWe collected 108 soil cores, averaging 12 samples per site, from the same nine sites sampled in 2016, following the statistically powered estimated sample size.
“Following this statistically powered estimated sample size, we collected 108 soil cores, averaging 12 samples per site, from the same nine sites sampled in 2016.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataAMP grazing substantially reduced the GHG footprints of the studied cow-calf to finish systems, resulting in low net emissions under a conservative SOC accrual rate of 0.52 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, while maintaining productivity levels comparable to those reported for conventional systems.
“we found that AMP grazing substantially reduced the GHG footprints of the studied cow-calf to finish systems, resulting in low net emissions under a conservative SOC accrual rate of 0.52 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 , while maintaining productivity levels comparable to those reported for conventional systems.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningBy combining measured and modeled outputs, we obtained the most robust SOC accrual rate to use in the LCA, along with separate measure- and model-based estimates for sensitivity analysis.
“By combining measured and modeled outputs, we obtained the most robust SOC accrual rate to use in the LCA, along with separate measure-and model-based estimates for sensitivity analysis.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationnone givenThe specific accrual rates reported here reflect Upper Midwest conditions and cannot be directly transferred to other regions.
“While the specific accrual rates reported here reflect Upper Midwest conditions and cannot be directly transferred to other regions”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationnone givenThe underlying pathways of SOC accrual are biologically universal.
“the underlying pathways are biologically universal.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationThese patterns can improve several ecophysiological elements linked to SOC formation, including greater canopy and ground cover, enhanced plant productivity, improved root allocation and exudation, higher-quality litter inputs, and increased manure distribution and plant functional diversity.
“These patterns can improve several ecophysiological elements linked to SOC formation, including greater canopy and ground cover, enhanced plant productivity, improved root allocation and exudation, higher-quality litter inputs, and increased manure distribution and plant functional diversity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Stanley et al., 2024 source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationMultiple studies have demonstrated SOC gains under AMP grazing, alongside broader improvements in ecophysiological indicators of soil health such as enhanced plant community composition and water dynamics.
“Despite limited long-term data, multiple studies have demonstrated SOC gains under AMP grazing (e.g., Mosier et al., 2021;Stanley et al., 2025), alongside broader improvements in ecophysiological indicators of soil health such as enhanced plant community composition and water dynamics (Apfelbaum et al., 2022;Döbert et al., 2021).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningOur emissions estimates fall within expected regional ranges, combined with our intentionally conservative Ym assumptions, provides a robust basis for interpreting the net GHG outcomes driven by SOC change.
“Overall, the fact that our emissions estimates fall within expected regional ranges, combined with our intentionally conservative Ym assumptions (see enteric CH 4 considerations below), provides a robust basis for interpreting the net GHG outcomes driven by SOC change.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningBecause sampling occurred at discrete intervals and SOC accrual was calculated to derive a single, robust 11-year estimate for the LCA, it is difficult to detect short-term changes or nonlinear trends during that period.
“However, because sampling occurred at discrete intervals and SOC accrual was calculated to derive a single, robust 11-year estimate for the LCA, it is difficult to detect short-term changes or nonlinear trends during that period.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationnone givenWe cannot rule out that legacy effects from the pre-2010/2012 management period partially contributed to the SOC gains observed here.
“However, we cannot rule out that legacy effects from the pre-2010/2012 management period partially contributed to the SOC gains observed here.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningSOC gains at LCRC cannot be attributed to reductions in stocking rate-which was held constant throughout the study period-or to external carbon inputs, given the absence of N fertilizer, reseeding, or soil amendments.
“Importantly, SOC gains at LCRC cannot be attributed to reductions in stocking rate—which was held constant throughout the study period—or to external carbon inputs, given the absence of N fertilizer, reseeding, or soil amendments.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataAMP management may support better overall system efficiency and differences among grazing systems in gross emissions could be meaningful and merit further study.
“illustrating that AMP management may support better overall system efficiency and that differences among grazing systems in gross emissions could be meaningful and merit further study.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationGrazinglands span nearly 2 billion hectares globally and form the foundation of most beef supply chains.
“Grazinglands span nearly 2 billion hectares globally (Dondini et al., 2023) and form the foundation of most beef supply chains.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Dondini et al., 2023
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductown dataOur results add to this evidence with a uniquely long, longitudinal dataset.
“Our results add to this evidence with a uniquely long, longitudinal dataset.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationThe relative dominance of these pathways and the degree to which AMP management activates them will vary with local climate, soil type, plant community, and grazing history.
“Their relative dominance and the degree to which AMP management activates them will vary with local climate, soil type, plant community, and grazing history (Stanley et al., 2024).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Stanley et al., 2024 source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationTogether, these mechanisms support the three major pathways of SOC accrual: increasing carbon inputs, reducing losses, and promoting below-ground transformations.
“Together, these mechanisms support the three major pathways of SOC accrual: increasing carbon inputs, reducing losses, and promoting below-ground transformations (Stanley et al., 2024).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Stanley et al., 2024 source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationIn the empirical dataset, the slower rate observed in later years may reflect a real trend, consistent with diminishing returns reported elsewhere.
“In the empirical dataset, the slower rate observed in later years may reflect a real trend, consistent with diminishing returns reported elsewhere (Stewart et al., 2007).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Stewart et al., 2007 source
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningAMP's climate importance comes from its unusually broad scalability across the beef sector, though the degree to which its soil carbon climate benefit is realized will depend on local soil, climate, and management conditions, and requires further validation across regions.
“Beyond the general mitigation magnitude advantage, AMP's climate importance comes from its unusually broad scalability across the beef sector—though the degree to which its soil carbon climate benefit is realized will depend on local soil, climate, and management conditions, and requires further validation across regions.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationAttempts to measure grazing-induced changes in SOC and incorporate them into LCAs have been sparse in the literature and have yielded widely variable results.
“Attempts to measure grazing-induced changes in SOC and incorporate them into LCAs have been sparse in the literature and have yielded widely variable results (Lupo et al., 2013;Mehre et al., 2024;Pelletier et al., 2010;Rowntree et al., 2020; see SI Section A.3.4 for a direct comparison with these studies).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checkedProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningThis leaves substantial room for improvement through grazing management approaches that optimize for SOC accrual and retention.
“This leaves substantial room for improvement through grazing management approaches that optimize for SOC accrual and retention.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningSOC accrual rates, potential, and longevity are highly regionally contextual, which combined with differences in grazing management likely partly explains variability across the studies.
“SOC accrual rates, potential, and longevity are highly regionally contextual, which combined with differences in grazing management likely partly explains variability across the studies.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationnone givenUsing a combined measure-model SOC approach is useful for validating SOC results, which can vary across time and space.
“Our work also illustrates the strengths of using a combined measure-model SOC approach for validating SOC results, which can vary across time and space.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
InterpretationreasoningPotential land-use tradeoffs may be partially mitigated when considering ecosystem services, as the additional land required under AMP grazing may also provide broader soil health and resilience benefits associated with SOC accrual.
“However, potential land-use tradeoffs may be partially mitigated when considering ecosystem services, as the additional land required under AMP grazing may also provide broader soil health and resilience benefits associated with SOC accrual.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationOur low-input grazing-based systems (AMP-GF and AMP-FL) can maintain beef output per hectare comparable to current regional systems for both cow-calf to grain- or grass-finishing, ensuring that potential mitigation practices do not compromise productivity.
“This indicates that our lowinput grazing-based systems (AMP-GF and AMP-FL) can maintain beef output per hectare comparable to current regional systems for both cowcalf to grain-or grass-finishing, ensuring that potential mitigation practices do not compromise productivity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningThis combined measure-model approach produces a conservative SOC accrual estimate of 0.52 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, providing defensible benchmark for interpreting AMP's contribution to net GHG outcomes.
“This combined measure-model approach produces a conservative SOC accrual estimate of 0.52 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 , providing defensible benchmark for interpreting AMP's contribution to net GHG outcomes (see SI Section A.3.2 for details).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationGiven this scalability and the continued prevalence of continuous grazing in the US, industry sustainability initiatives now identify grazing management plans as a key mitigation strategy for cow-calf systems.
“Given this scalability and the continued prevalence of continuous grazing in the US (Whitt and Wallander, 2022), industry sustainability initiatives now identify grazing management plans as a key mitigation strategy for cow-calf systems (USRSB, 2025).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Whitt and Wallander, 2022
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites USRSB, 2025
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningOur findings are robust by construction and likely represent a minimum estimate of this system's climate mitigation potential.
“Our findings are therefore robust by construction and likely represent a minimum estimate of this system's climate mitigation potential.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningThe relatively low standard error among T0 samples supports their internal consistency, yet the small number of T0 sites (3 vs. 9 in later years) limits precision and cannot fully compensate for potential laboratory or equipment-related error.
“The relatively low standard error among T 0 samples supports their internal consistency, yet the small number of T 0 sites (3 vs. 9 in later years) limits precision and cannot fully compensate for potential laboratory or equipment-related error.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoningGiven these constraints, we adopted a model-supported T0 baseline.
“Given these constraints, we adopted a model-supported T 0 baseline.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationnone givenAMP grazing in the Upper Midwest can sustain low-input yet productive operations, yielding high meat production from predominantly non-human edible feed sources.
“1) sustain low-input yet productive operations, yielding high meat production from predominantly non-human edible feed sources”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The studied AMP systems are representative of commercial-scale cow-calf to finish systems in the Upper Midwest.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenA remaining limitation is that emissions for unmeasured production groups were scaled using metabolic body weight, which may have diluted the pre-group estimates.
“A remaining limitation is that emissions for unmeasured production groups were scaled using metabolic body weight, which may have diluted the pregroup estimates.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningThe IPCC Tier 2 model likely overestimates enteric CH4 in our system, as we intentionally took a conservative approach to ensure that any potentially low footprint was driven by SOC change rather than underestimated emissions.
“Although our GHG emissions estimates align with regional values, the IPCC Tier 2 model likely overestimates enteric CH 4 in our system, as we intentionally took a conservative approach to ensure that any potentially low footprint was driven by SOC change rather than underestimated emissions.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningOur two conservative assumptions-an upper-bound T0 baseline and a Ym factor that likely overestimates emissions-are directionally aligned: any residual bias pushes our estimates toward underestimation of both SOC accrual and methane reduction.
“Taken together, our two conservative assumptions—an upper-bound T 0 baseline and a Ym factor that likely overestimates emissions—are directionally aligned: any residual bias pushes our estimates toward underestimation of both SOC accrual and methane reduction.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataWe increased the IPCC DMI values to better reflect actual intake; without this correction, enteric CH4 would be underestimated by ~7% in both systems.
“To this end, we increased the IPCC DMI values to better reflect actual intake; without this correction, enteric CH 4 would be underestimated by ~7% in both systems (Table A.9).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Interpretationnone givenOur AMP-FL scenario balances the benefits of SOC accrual from AMP grazing in early beef production phases with the productivity benefits of FL finishing.
“Alternatively, our AMP-FL scenario balances the benefits of SOC accrual from AMP grazing in early beef production phases with the productivity benefits of FL finishing.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The authors state this as an assumption.
SOC equilibrium for all feed produced from cropland and off-farm hayland.
“We assumed SOC equilibrium for all feed produced from cropland and off-farm hayland.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Existing hayland and cropland supplied off-farm hay and crops, so land use change emissions were excluded.
“Land use change emissions were excluded due to LCRC's long-standing perennial pastures and the assumption that existing hayland and cropland supplied off-farm hay and crops.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Background soil N2O emissions from soil organic matter mineralization and crop residue decomposition are negligible and unchanged due to beef production, and emissions from machinery, infrastructure, and seed production are minor.
“Background soil N 2 O emissions from soil organic matter mineralization and crop residue decomposition, assuming negligible changes due to beef production (Stanley et al., 2018), as well as emissions from machinery, infrastructure, and seed production were not accounted for due to their minor contribution to the overall footprint (FAO, 2016;Stackhouse-Lawson et al., 2012).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Live animals sold to other farms maintained LCRC-gained weight until culling, except for two assumed mortalities.
“Many live animals-mostly bred females-were sold to other farms and included in the beef output under the assumption that they maintained LCRC-gained weight until culling, except for two assumed mortalities.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Unweaned calves' diet transition from 4-6 months had grass constituting 25% and 50% of intake at 4-5 and 5-6 months, respectively.
“Although IPCC guidelines exclude emissions for unweaned calves, we conservatively modeled their 4-6 month diet transition, assuming grass constituted 25% and 50% of their intake at 4-5 and 5-6 months, respectively (EPA, 2023).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
25% of hay was sourced on-farm and 75% off-farm.
“To estimate hay production emissions for the AMP grazing stages, we assumed 25% of hay was sourced on-farm and 75% off-farm, with total usage calculated based on DMI estimates and adjusted for a 15% feeding wastage rate (Ty Hughston, manager, LCRC, pers.comm.).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The control site provides a useful reference point for comparison despite not being an ideal control.
“Although it does not represent an ideal control, it provides a useful reference point for comparison.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The studied AMP systems are representative of commercial-scale cow-calf to finish systems in the Upper Midwest.
“detailed data from commercial-scale cow-calf to finish systems in the Upper Midwest”
“AMP grazing in the Upper Midwest”
The paper relies on this without support.
There is a major gap in the scientific literature regarding comprehensive LCA-based assessments of AMP grazing's impact on the GHG balance of beef production.
“addressing a major gap in the scientific literature.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Control-site sampling dates span 12 years, not 11
MinorThe control site was sampled in 2012 and resampled in 2024, a 12-year interval. It therefore was not evaluated over the same 11-year period as the AMP pastures sampled through 2023.
“we also evaluated SOC changes over the same 11-year time period in a mostly ungrazed, 0.6 ha control site”
“This control plot was initially sampled for SOC at baseline in 2012 for another project (Chiavegato et al., 2015b).This site was ungrazed from the late 1990s until 2012, and then sporadically grazed once per year between 2012 and 2014, for a single day each time, with ~80% forage utilization.Although it does not represent an ideal control, it provides a useful reference point for comparison.At resampling in 2024, we collected 27 samples across the site following the previously described methods.”
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Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 2
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Phillips, R., Zhou, X., & Bo, H. (2026) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-026-72714-5
“This report of net annual gains in ecosystem C adds to the body of evidence that well-managed, rotational grazing systems can lead to improvements in grassland health, including water quality 39 , soil C stocks 9,40 biodiversity 41,42 , and flood reduction 43 .”
- Authors
- Garcia, L., Stanley, P. L., Sacramento, J. P., Dillon, J. A., Thorbecke, M., Thompson, L. R., Ambike, V., Sharma, P., Xu, S., Chiavegato, M. B., Raven, M. R., Basso, B., & Rowntree, J. E.
- Affiliations
- Michigan State University (US)
- Colorado State University (US)
- Cornell University (US)
- Kansas State University (US)
- University of California, Davis (US)
- The Ohio State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Rowntree, Jason E.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Agricultural Systems
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2026-10
- Volume
- 238
- Pages
- 104879
- ISSN
- 0308-521X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W7167243174
- Semantic Scholar
- 996f2307e478e69891a91dbe62ccc4d66b1a8c21
- Cited by
- 1
- References
- 64
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1
- FWCI
- 3.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Agricultural Systems (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- Michigan Alliance for Animal Agriculture (AA-22-0054)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Pasture and Agricultural Systems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Chemistry › Sustainable Agricultural Systems Analysis
- Keywords
- adaptive multi-paddock grazing, soil carbon, beef cattle, greenhouse gas footprint, grazing management, carbon sequestration, Upper Midwest
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-23.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-23.
Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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