CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 1Health disparities and outcomesChild and Adolescent Psychosocial and Emotional DevelopmentBullying, Victimization, and Aggression

Investigating the interplay of loneliness and social isolation across adolescence: Findings from a nationally representative longitudinal study

Open access
Bryan, Bridget T., Thompson, Katherine N., Fisher, Helen L., Matthews, Timothy, Milne, Barry, Arseneault, Louise·2026·Development and Psychopathology
DOI 10.1017/s0954579426101758
Open this paper in CoChat — free accountOpen PDF

Abstract

While loneliness and social isolation are risk factors for poor health and functioning, prominent theories suggest that loneliness may serve an adaptive function by encouraging social reconnection. Nevertheless, few studies have examined how loneliness and isolation relate to each other, and other outcomes, over time. Using the Environmental Risk Longitudinal Twin Study, a UK population-representative cohort of 2,232 individuals born in 1994–1995 (49% male, 90% White), we investigated how loneliness and isolation are related across time and jointly influence outcomes. Loneliness and isolation were assessed at ages 12 and 18. Mental health, well-being, health behaviors, and socioeconomic outcomes were measured at age 18. Loneliness and isolation were concurrently and longitudinally associated with each other across adolescence. Loneliness marginally moderated the stability of social isolation from age-12 to 18 ( β = ‒0.08, p = 0.08) but did not observe a buffering effect, with isolated children who experienced loneliness experiencing high isolation in young adulthood. Age-12 loneliness and isolation were independently associated with poorer mental health, well-being, and socioeconomic outcomes ( β = ‒0.18–0.10, p < 0.05), though experiencing both was not associated with worse outcomes. Our findings underline the pervasive impacts of childhood loneliness and isolation and challenge the view that loneliness drives social reconnection in early life.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

Using the UK E-Risk Longitudinal Twin Study, this paper finds that loneliness and social isolation are bidirectionally associated across adolescence and that loneliness does not buffer later social isolation. Both age-12 loneliness and isolation independently predict poorer age-18 mental health, wellbeing, and socioeconomic outcomes, but experiencing both together does not produce cumulatively worse outcomes.

Key findings

  • Loneliness and social isolation were cross-sectionally associated at ages 12 and 18 (r = 0.31 and r = 0.38, respectively) and showed bidirectional longitudinal associations: isolation at 12 predicted loneliness at 18 (β = 0.10), while loneliness at 12 predicted isolation at 18 more strongly (β = 0.20; difference p = 0.01).
  • Loneliness did not buffer the persistence of social isolation: the loneliness × isolation interaction predicting age-18 isolation was marginal (β = −0.08, p = 0.08), and children with high age-12 loneliness had high age-18 isolation regardless of their age-12 isolation level (b = 0.19, p = 0.29), unlike those with no or low loneliness (b = 0.57 and 0.44, both p < 0.001).
  • Age-12 loneliness and isolation were independently associated with poorer age-18 mental health, wellbeing, and socioeconomic outcomes (β = −0.18 to 0.10, p < 0.05), though experiencing both was not associated with significantly worse outcomes than experiencing only one.
  • Interaction analyses indicated a ceiling or saturation effect rather than exacerbation: age-12 loneliness moderated associations between social isolation and age-18 life satisfaction, sleep quality, positive coping, employability, social status, and NEET status, with isolation having little impact among the most lonely children.

Methods

  • Participants were from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a UK population-representative cohort of 2,232 twins born in 1994–1995 (49% male, 90% White); loneliness and social isolation were assessed at ages 12 and 18, and outcomes were measured at age 18.
  • Loneliness at age 12 used three Children’s Depression Inventory items; loneliness at age 18 used four UCLA Loneliness Scale items. Social isolation at age 12 used six CBCL/TRF items averaged across mother and teacher reports; at age 18 it used the reversed Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support as a proxy.
  • Analyses included a cross-lagged panel model, linear and logistic regressions, cumulative loneliness/isolation indices, and interaction/simple slopes tests, with Full Information Maximum Likelihood, clustered robust standard errors for twin nonindependence, and Stata 18; the study was preregistered.

Limitations

  • The paper states that only two assessment waves with a six-year lag limited the ability to distinguish transient from persistent loneliness, required different age-appropriate measures across development, and may have attenuated associations due to the lower internal consistency of the age-12 loneliness measure.
  • The paper states that the traditional cross-lagged panel model cannot separate within-person dynamics from stable between-person differences, that the twin sample may not generalize to singletons, and that the age-18 social isolation measure based on perceived support may overlap with loneliness.
  • Evident from the text: the sample is 90% White and drawn from a UK twin cohort, so findings may not generalize to more ethnically diverse or non-twin populations; the paper also notes that early-adolescent loneliness and isolation measures were constructed from broader screening instruments rather than designed specifically for these constructs.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1017/s0954579426101758

Cites

82 of 84 references verified0 citation errors · 2 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

20 of 53 cited sources checked · 8 supported · 1 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Findingcitation

    The cross-sectional association between loneliness and social isolation at age 18 (r=0.38) is comparable but somewhat stronger than that observed in studies using structural indicators of social isolation in adulthood (e.g., r≈0.18-0.30).

    “This may be reflected in the cross-sectional association between the constructs at age 18 (r = 0.38), which is comparable but somewhat stronger than that observed in studies using structural indicators of social isolation in adulthood (e.g., r ≈ 0.18-0.30;Preacher et al., 2005;Coyle & Dugan, 2012;Steptoe et al., 2013).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Preacher et al., 2005 source
    • cites Coyle & Dugan, 2012 source
    • cites Steptoe et al., 2013 source

      The Results report a positive correlation between social isolation and loneliness in this older-adult sample, but its magnitude is ρ = 0.10, not approximately 0.18–0.30. The age-18 correlation is the citing authors’ own result, not a finding attributed to Steptoe et al. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Premisecitation

    Deficits in social relationships, particularly isolation and loneliness experienced early in life, are associated with poor mental health, functioning, and socioeconomic outcomes.

    “Deficits in social relationships, particularly isolation and loneliness experienced early in life, are associated with poor mental health (Matthews et al., 2015;Qualter et al., 2010), functioning (Thompson et al., 2022;von Soest et al., 2020) and socioeconomic outcomes (Bryan et al., 2024).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim3 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Matthews et al., 2015 source
    • cites Qualter et al., 2010 source
    • cites Thompson et al., 2022 source
  • Study design and conductcitation

    The study used measures of social isolation that capture low embeddedness within age-appropriate social networks, consistent with prior research that conceptualizes childhood isolation in terms of peer relationships.

    “We used measures of social isolation that capture low embeddedness within age-appropriate social networks, which is consistent with prior research that conceptualizes childhood isolation in terms of peer relationships (e.g., Lacey et al., 2014;Matthews et al., 2016;Morneau-Vaillancourt et al., 2023;Thompson et al., 2023).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim3 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Lacey et al., 2014 source
    • cites Matthews et al., 2016 source

      The Methods (Measures; page not available) describe an age-18 isolation measure based on low perceived support from family and friends, which supports the general idea of assessing social connectedness in an age-appropriate way. The Discussion mentions a separate childhood measure based on mother and teacher reports at age 12, but does not say that it conceptualized childhood isolation specifically in terms of peer relationships. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Morneau-Vaillancourt et al., 2023 source
  • Findingown data

    Loneliness did not buffer the association between earlier social isolation and later social isolation.

    “but did not observe a buffering effect”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Loneliness marginally moderated the stability of social isolation from age 12 to age 18 (β = -0.08, p = 0.08).

    “Loneliness marginally moderated the stability of social isolation from age-12 to 18 (β = -0.08,p = 0.08)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 48
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 28
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 2

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Loneliness and social isolation are conceptually distinct and the correlation between the two constructs is modest.

    “While loneliness and social isolation often cooccur, they are conceptually distinct and the correlation between the two constructs is modest (Coyle & Dugan, 2012;Matthews et al., 2015).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Coyle & Dugan, 2012 source
    • cites Matthews et al., 2015 source

      The Discussion (page not provided) says loneliness and social isolation are related but distinct constructs, supporting their conceptual distinction. It does not describe the correlation between those constructs as modest; the moderate correlations in Method > Childhood Social Isolation are between mother and teacher ratings of isolation, not between isolation and loneliness. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Lonely individuals are less trusting of others and more anxious and pessimistic than less lonely people.

    “Loneliness is consistently associated with withdrawal from social interactions (Qualter et al., 2015), with lonely individuals being less trusting of others and more anxious and pessimistic than less lonely people (Cacioppo et al., 2006;Langenkamp, 2023;Lieberz et al., 2021).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Cacioppo et al., 2006 source
    • cites Langenkamp, 2023 source
    • cites Lieberz et al., 2021 source

      The Results sections report that high-lonely participants had less interpersonal trust and heightened anxiety symptoms than low-lonely controls. The Introduction describes anticipated rejection and negative attribution styles, but the paper does not establish that the high-lonely group was more pessimistic than controls. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Experiencing loneliness may precede or exacerbate social isolation, forming a self-reinforcing cycle of escalating social isolation and loneliness over time.

    “As such, experiencing loneliness may precede or exacerbate social isolation, forming a selfreinforcing cycle of escalating social isolation and loneliness over time.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Rook et al., 2024 source

      The Discussion reports that lonelier older adults showed less interest, made fewer efforts, and reported less success in expanding social ties. Limitations and Future Directions proposes that unsuccessful efforts might increase loneliness, but calls this a potential cycle needing further research. The paper does not establish escalating social isolation and loneliness over time. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Chang et al., 2025

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Das, 2021

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Existing evidence indicates that loneliness and social isolation are independently associated with mental health conditions and mortality.

    “Although existing evidence indicates that loneliness and social isolation are independently associated with mental health conditions and mortality (Holt-Lunstad et al., 2015;Matthews et al., 2016), their independent effects on physical health conditions are less consistent and their independent effects on socioeconomic outcomes have not been investigated (Leigh-Hunt et al., 2017).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Holt-Lunstad et al., 2015 source

      The Discussion reports that loneliness and social isolation each predicted mortality after adjustment for covariates. The Introduction links a lack of social connections to psychological and emotional well-being, but the passages do not establish independent associations of loneliness and social isolation with mental health conditions; they also note that few studies examined the two concurrently. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Matthews et al., 2016 source

      The Results (Table 2; page unavailable) show that loneliness and social isolation were each associated with depressive symptoms when entered together in a regression model, although the isolation association was much weaker. The paper does not report an association with mortality, so it supports the mental-health portion of the attributed claim but not the mortality portion. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The independent effects of loneliness and social isolation on physical health conditions are less consistent, and their independent effects on socioeconomic outcomes have not been investigated.

    “Although existing evidence indicates that loneliness and social isolation are independently associated with mental health conditions and mortality (Holt-Lunstad et al., 2015;Matthews et al., 2016), their independent effects on physical health conditions are less consistent and their independent effects on socioeconomic outcomes have not been investigated (Leigh-Hunt et al., 2017).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Leigh-Hunt et al., 2017 source

      The Physical Health section reports weaker evidence for conditions other than cardiovascular disease, and the Conclusions say the socio-economic consequences are less clear. The Limitations specify that no included reviews considered health economics; they do not establish that socio-economic outcomes have never been investigated. The paper also does not consistently assess the separate, independent effects of loneliness and social isolation on those outcomes. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Lonely individuals struggle to use their social skills and approach social situations in a more defensive manner.

    “Lonely individuals also struggle to use their social skills (Knowles et al., 2015) and approach social situations in a more defensive manner (Cacioppo et al., 2006;Cacioppo & Hawkley, 2009), such that even if they are motivated to seek connections with others, these attempts to reconnect may not be successful.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Knowles et al., 2015 source
    • cites Cacioppo et al., 2006 source
    • cites Cacioppo & Hawkley, 2009 source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Exposure to multiple social adversities in childhood, such as maltreatment, bullying, neglect and community violence, is associated with more severe negative consequences than exposure to a single risk factor.

    “Meanwhile, a robust body of research on cumulative risk exposure indicates that exposure to multiple social adversities in childhood, such as maltreatment, bullying, neglect and community violence, are associated with more severe negative consequences than exposure to a single risk factor (Deniz et al., 2025;Evans et al., 2013;Fisher et al., 2015;Hardi et al., 2025).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Deniz et al., 2025 source

      The Discussion reports that cumulative risk predicted later emotional distress beyond individual risk factors, supporting the claim’s central comparison. But the Measures section includes individual characteristics alongside social exposures; it measures bullying, while abuse or neglect are only potential reasons for a social-services referral, and community violence is not measured directly. The paper therefore does not establish the comparison for the specific set of childhood social adversities listed. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Evans et al., 2013 source
    • cites Fisher et al., 2015 source

      The Results section on poly-victimization (page unavailable) reports that adolescents exposed to one type of severe victimization were more likely to experience other types, including neglect and maltreatment. The paper does not establish the claimed comparison: that exposure to multiple adversities has more severe negative consequences than exposure to a single risk factor. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    These items have also been used to assess loneliness and social isolation in several previous studies in this cohort, supporting the comparison of the present findings to earlier work.

    “These items have also been used to assess loneliness and social isolation in several previous studies in this cohort (e.g.Bryan et al., 2024;Matthews et al., 2022;Thompson et al., 2023), supporting the comparison of the present findings to earlier work”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim3 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Bryan et al., 2024 source

      The Method > Measures passage (page not supplied) confirms that Bryan et al. used four UCLA Loneliness Scale items to assess loneliness in the cohort at ages 18 and 26. It does not show those items being used to assess social isolation as a separate measure, so that part of the attribution is unsupported by this source. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Matthews et al., 2022 source
    • cites Thompson et al., 2023 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Experiences of loneliness and social isolation in early adolescence were independently and robustly associated with reduced socioeconomic outcomes in young adulthood, with social isolation associated with later unemployment in a magnitude similar to established risk factors including childhood socioeconomic disadvantage and mental health difficulties.

    “Experiences of loneliness and social isolation in early adolescence were independently and robustly associated with reduced socioeconomic outcomes in young adulthood, with social isolation associated with later unemployment in a magnitude similar to established risk factors including childhood socioeconomic disadvantage and mental health difficulties (Rahmani et al., 2024;Veldman, van Zon & Bültm”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Rahmani et al., 2024 source
    • cites Veldman, van Zon & Bültmann, 2024 source

      Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 1 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Loneliness and social isolation were cross-sectionally associated at both age 12 and age 18, with the association stronger at age 18 (r12=0.31, r18=0.38; χ2(1)=3.7, p=.05).

    “Loneliness and social isolation were also cross-sectionally associated at both timepoints, with this association stronger at age 18 (r 12 = 0.31, r 18 = 0.38; χ 2 (1) = 3.7, p = .05).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Childhood loneliness and social isolation were independently associated with a range of poor outcomes in young adulthood, with lonelier and more isolated 12-year-olds going on to experience poor mental health, worse wellbeing and reduced socioeconomic outcomes at age 18.

    “Experiences of loneliness and social isolation in childhood were independently associated with a range of poor outcomes in young adulthood, with lonelier and more isolated 12-year-olds going on to experience poor mental health, worse wellbeing and reduced socioeconomic outcomes at age 18 (Table 4, model 2), consistent with H3.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The main effect of age-12 social isolation on age-18 isolation did not differ by sex or by mother or teacher report of social isolation at age 12.

    “The main effect of age-12 social isolation on age-18 isolation did not differ by sex or by mother or teacher report of social isolation at age 12 (Supplement D).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The autoregressive effects of loneliness and social isolation from age 12 to 18 were significant and similar in strength (loneliness β=0.22, isolation β=0.15; χ2(1)=2.68, p=0.10).

    “When examining the associations between loneliness and social isolation across ages 12 and 18, we found that the autoregressive effects of loneliness and social isolation were significant and similar in strength (loneliness 12-18 β=0.22,isolation 12-18 β=0.15; χ 2 (1) = 2.68, p = 0.10; Figure 1).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Results did not differ between male and female participants, or between mother- or teacher-reported social isolation at age 12.

    “Results did not differ between male and female participants, or between mother or teacher reported social isolation at age 12 (full details in Supplement C).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Among children with high loneliness scores, the effect of age-12 social isolation on age-18 social isolation was reduced, and they experienced high levels of social isolation at age 18 regardless of their age-12 isolation (b=0.19, p=0.29).

    “This effect was reduced among children with high loneliness scores, who experienced high levels of social isolation at age 18 no matter their level of isolation at age 12 (b = 0.19, p = 0.29).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Lagged effects showed bidirectional associations: participants lonelier at age 12 were more isolated at age 18, and more isolated 12-year-olds reported higher loneliness at age 18.

    “Consistent with H1, results for the lagged effects show bidirectional associations, with participants who were lonelier in early secondary school going on to be more isolated as they entered young adulthood, and more isolated 12-year-olds reporting higher loneliness as young adults.”
    • Also stated in: § Discussion · hedged
      “Our findings indicate that loneliness and social isolation are independently and positively associated with each other over time.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingreasoning

    The items in the two measures capture different dimensions of social connection: social isolation items assess availability of support from family, friends, and close others, whereas loneliness items focus on subjective experiences and feelings about disconnection.

    “The items in the two measures capture different dimensions of social connection: the social isolation items assess the availability of support from family, friends, and close others”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Results using the age-12 social isolation measure with the complains of loneliness item excluded were consistent with the main findings, indicating that inclusion of this item does not meaningfully influence the observed associations.

    “The results were also consistent with the main findings (Supplement F), indicating that the inclusion of this item does not meaningfully influence the observed associations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    When adjusting for childhood mental health and personality, lonelier or more isolated young adults concurrently experienced elevated depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms and more psychotic experiences than their less lonely or isolated peers.

    “When adjusting for childhood mental health and personality, lonelier or more isolated young adults concurrently experienced elevated depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms and more psychotic experiences than their less lonely or isolated peers”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The association between social isolation and concurrent coping behaviors is weaker among the loneliest young people, who reported less positive coping behaviors than their less lonely peers whether they were isolated or not.

    “Similar to the moderating effects observed in the longitudinal models, the association between social isolation and concurrent coping behaviors is weaker among the loneliest young people, who reported less positive coping behaviors than their less lonely peers whether they were isolated or not (Figure 5, Table 6).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Compared with young people who did not experience loneliness or social isolation, 18-year-olds who reported high levels of either loneliness or social isolation had elevated mental health symptoms, reduced positive coping and wellbeing and fared poorly on key indicators of young adulthood socioeconomic outcomes.

    “Compared with young people who did not experience loneliness or social isolation, 18-year-olds who reported high levels of either loneliness or social isolation had elevated mental health symptoms, reduced positive coping and wellbeing and fared poorly on key indicators of young adulthood socioeconomic outcomes (Figure 4).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For children who reported no or low levels of loneliness, higher isolation at age 12 was associated with reduced life satisfaction, sleep quality, positive coping behaviors, employability and social status, and increased odds of being NEET as they entered young adulthood.

    “For children who reported no or low levels of loneliness, higher isolation at age 12 was associated with reduced life satisfaction, sleep quality, positive coping behaviors, employability and social status, and increased odds of being NEET as they entered young adulthood (Table 6).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Young people who experienced both loneliness and social isolation had similar poor outcomes, but the magnitude of the effect of experiencing both on each outcome was not significantly higher than the effect of experiencing only one type of social deficit.

    “While young people who experienced both loneliness and social isolation had similar poor outcomes, the magnitude of the effect of experiencing both loneliness and isolation on each outcome was not significantly higher than the effect of experiencing only one type of social deficit.”
    • Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
      “We observe that isolated and lonely individuals experience similar difficulties to those who experienced only one type of social deficit.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The associations between childhood social isolation and age-18 depression, and between childhood loneliness and later anxiety, were accounted for by childhood mental health symptoms and personality.

    “The associations between childhood social isolation and age-18 depression, and childhood loneliness and later anxiety were accounted for by childhood mental health symptoms and personality.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Loneliness was associated with higher alcohol use and lower physical activity in young adulthood.

    “Loneliness was associated with higher alcohol use and lower physical activity”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Loneliness and isolation in young adulthood were independently associated with concurrent mental health difficulties, worse wellbeing and poor socioeconomic outcomes.

    “Loneliness and isolation in young adulthood were also independently associated with concurrent mental health difficulties, worse wellbeing and poor socioeconomic outcomes (Table 4, model 4).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    In longitudinal models, age-12 social isolation was associated with age-18 NEET (OR=1.33, p<.001).

    “NEET | 1.24 | .09 | 1.33 | <.001 | 0.92 | .03 | 1.04 | .52 | 1.03 | .29 | 1.01 | .28”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Loneliness may be experienced by individuals with abundant social connections and some individuals with little social contact may not feel lonely.

    “Indeed, loneliness may be experienced by individuals with abundant social connections and some individuals with little social contact may not feel lonely (de Jong Gierveld et al., 2006).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites de Jong Gierveld et al., 2006 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The research questions, hypotheses and analysis plan was preregistered.

    “The research questions, hypotheses and analysis plan was preregistered at https://sites.duke.edu/moffittcaspiprhttps://github. com/bridgetbryan/loneliness-isolation-interplay and analysis code is available at https://github.com/bridgetbryan/lonelinessisolation-interplay.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The use of a top decile cut-off to capture loneliness and isolation is consistent with previous research in this cohort and mirrors the number of adolescents who report feeling lonely often.

    “This use of a top decile cut-off to capture loneliness and isolation is consistent with previous research in this cohort (Matthews et al., 2023) and mirrors the number of adolescents who report feeling lonely often (Office for National Statistics [ONS], 2018).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Matthews et al., 2023

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Office for National Statistics [ONS], 2018

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Loneliness does not buffer the association between earlier and later isolation over time, and it also does not exacerbate isolation over time, providing partial support for H2.

    “These findings indicate that, while loneliness does not buffer the association between earlier and later isolation over time, it also does not exacerbate isolation over time, providing partial support for H2.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Within the evolutionary framework, the aversive experience of loneliness can motivate socially isolated individuals to build or rebuild positive social relationships.

    “Within this framework, the aversive experience of loneliness can work to motivate socially isolated individuals to build or rebuild positive social relationships through a series of cognitive and behavioral processes (Cacioppo & Cacioppo, 2018).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Cacioppo & Cacioppo, 2018 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    Regression models were planned a priori.

    “We investigated the effect of age-12 loneliness and social isolation on age-18 social isolation using two linear regression models planned a priori.”
    • Also stated in: § Does loneliness buffer or exacerbate the association between earlier social isolation and later isolation? · plain
      “We tested whether age-12 loneliness and social isolation preceded age-18 outcomes using a series of logistic and linear regression models planned a priori.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    A small number of studies point to cumulative effects of loneliness and isolation in mid-life and older adulthood on health, disability and quality of life, and synergistic effects on mortality risk.

    “While a small number of studies point to cumulative effects of loneliness and isolation in mid-life and older adulthood on health, disability and quality of life (Barnes et al., 2021;Shimada et al., 2025), as well as synergistic effects on mortality risk (Beller & Wagner, 2018;Foster et al., 2023;Ward et al., 2021), these studies have largely relied on cross-sectional data and focused on physical”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Barnes et al., 2021

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Shimada et al., 2025 source
    • cites Beller & Wagner, 2018 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The E-Risk sample was constructed in 1999-2000, when 1,116 families (93% of those eligible) with same-sex 5-year-old twin pairs participated in home-visit assessments.

    “Briefly, the E-Risk sample was constructed in 1999-2000, when 1,116 families (93% of those eligible) with same-sex 5-year-old twin pairs participated in home-visit assessments.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    Approximately 10% of the E-Risk study cohort fills each decile of the UK government's 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation, indicating that the cohort accurately represents the distribution of deprivation in the United Kingdom.

    “Approximately 10% of the E-Risk study cohort fills each of the index's 10% bands, indicating that the cohort accurately represents the distribution of deprivation in the United Kingdom (full detail in Supplement A).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    Missing values were handled using Full Information Maximum Likelihood.

    “We handled missing values using Full Information Maximum Likelihood and accounted for the nonindependence of twin observations by using robust standard errors with the vce(cluster) command.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Low social support reflects reduced embeddedness in a broader social network and was used as a proxy for social isolation at age 18.

    “As access to support is contingent on maintaining these social ties, low social support reflects reduced embeddedness in a broader social network and was used here as a proxy for social isolation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Follow-up home visits were conducted when the children were aged 7 (98% participation), 10 (96%), 12 (96%), and 18 years (93%).

    “Follow-up home visits were conducted when the children were aged 7 (98% participation), 10 (96%), 12 (96%), and 18 years (93%).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    This level of agreement between mother and teacher ratings is consistent with previous findings of parent and teacher ratings of children's behavior and may be partly accounted for by situational specificity.

    “This level of agreement is consistent with previous findings of parent and teacher ratings of children's behavior and may be partly accounted for by situational specificity (Achenbach et al., 1987).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Achenbach et al., 1987 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The evolutionary theory of loneliness proposes that loneliness has evolved as an adaptive signal that one's beneficial social relationships are under threat.

    “The evolutionary theory of loneliness considers social isolation to be a danger to an individual's survival and proposes that loneliness has evolved as an adaptive signal that one's beneficial social relationships are under threat (Cacioppo et al. 2013;Cacioppo & Cacioppo, 2018;Qualter et al., 2015).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Cacioppo et al. 2013

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Cacioppo & Cacioppo, 2018 source
    • cites Qualter et al., 2015 source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    The nonindependence of twin observations was accounted for by using robust standard errors with clustering within families in all models.

    “We handled missing values using Full Information Maximum Likelihood and accounted for the nonindependence of twin observations by using robust standard errors with the vce(cluster) command.”
    • Also stated in: § Employability · plain
      “Standard errors were adjusted for clustering of twin observations within families in all models.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    All analyses controlled for sex and parental SES.

    “All analyses controlled for sex and parental SES.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Loneliness may play a role in providing motivation for isolated individuals to connect, but additional factors such as social skills, traits and circumstances could determine whether an isolated individual reconnects or stays isolated long-term.

    “Within this context, loneliness may indeed play a role in providing motivation for isolated individuals to connect with others, but additional factors such as social skills, traits and circumstances could determine whether an isolated individual reconnects with others or stays isolated longterm.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    A traditional CLPM allows estimation of cross-sectional, auto-regressive, and cross-lagged associations with two waves of data but does not distinguish within-person dynamics from stable between-person differences.

    “Third, we employed a traditional CLPM, which allows estimation of cross-sectional, auto-regressive, and crosslagged associations with two waves of data but does not distinguish within-person dynamics from stable between-person differences (Hamaker, 2023).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hamaker, 2023

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    These measures differ from commonly used indicators of social isolation in adulthood, such as living alone or participation in community activities, which are not appropriate for younger populations.

    “These measures differ from commonly used indicators of social isolation in adulthood, such as living alone or participation in community activities, which are not appropriate for younger populations.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    All models adjust for parental socioeconomic status and sex.

    “All models adjust for parental socioeconomic status and sex.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The use of repeated, prospective assessments of loneliness and social isolation across adolescence is an important strength of this study.

    “The use of repeated, prospective assessments of loneliness and social isolation across adolescence is an important strength of this study.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The study used a top 10% cutoff to construct a cumulative measure of loneliness and social isolation, reflecting the proportion of adolescents who report feeling lonely often and aligning with previous research in this cohort.

    “We used a top 10% cutoff to construct a cumulative measure of loneliness and social isolation, which reflects the proportion of adolescents who report feeling lonely often (ONS, 2018) and aligns with previous research in this cohort (Matthews et al., 2023).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites ONS, 2018

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Matthews et al., 2023

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The use of two measurement waves spanning multiple developmental periods introduces several considerations for the interpretation of the CLPM findings.

    “Secondly, the use of two measurement waves spanning multiple developmental periods introduces several considerations for the interpretation of the CLPM findings.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Differences between findings in children and adolescents and previous findings in older populations may reflect differences in how loneliness and isolation shape health and functional outcomes in different developmental stages, as well as differences in how these constructs were measured across life.

    “Within this context, differences between our findings in children and adolescents and previous findings in older populations may reflect differences in how loneliness and isolation shape health and functional outcomes in different developmental stages, as well as differences in how these constructs were measured across life.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Findings highlight long-lasting implications of loneliness and social isolation for a range of outcomes, although experiencing both social deficits together does not appear to lead to a cumulatively greater impact on these outcomes.

    “Beyond the associations between loneliness and social isolation, our findings highlight their long-lasting implications for a range of outcomes, although experiencing both social deficits together does not appear to lead to a cumulatively greater impact on these outcomes.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The scales demonstrate good content validity, with social isolation items drawn from the CBCL capturing reductions in social engagement that may reflect either social withdrawal or peer rejection, and loneliness items closely paralleling those in the children's loneliness scale.

    “Nevertheless, the scales demonstrate good content validity, with the social isolation items drawn from the CBCL (Achenbach, 1991a) capturing reductions in social engagement that may reflect either social withdrawal or peer rejection.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Achenbach, 1991a

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The non-additive finding diverges from some existing evidence of cumulative effects on health in late adulthood, suggesting that pathways through which loneliness and isolation shape outcomes may vary across the life course.

    “The finding that the impact of loneliness and isolation on outcomes are non-additive in adolescence and young adulthood diverge from some existing evidence of cumulative effects on health in late adulthood (Barnes et al., 2021;Shimada et al., 2025), suggesting that the pathways through which they shape outcomes may vary across the life course.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Barnes et al., 2021

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Shimada et al., 2025 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Findings were similar when considering moderate and high levels of childhood loneliness, casting doubt on the assertion that milder loneliness is more likely to be adaptive and prompt social reaffiliation than more severe loneliness.

    “Our findings were similar when considering moderate and high levels of childhood loneliness, casting doubt about the assertion that milder loneliness is more likely to be 'adaptive' and prompt social reaffiliation than more severe loneliness (Hussain & Palmer, 2024).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Findings indicate that loneliness and social isolation jointly influence health, wellbeing, and socioeconomic outcomes in a non-additive manner, potentially exhibiting a ceiling or saturation effect.

    “In addition to their distinct contributions, our findings indicate that loneliness and social isolation jointly influence health, wellbeing, and socioeconomic outcomes in a non-additive manner, potentially exhibiting a ceiling or saturation effect.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The observed associations likely reflect a combination of trait-like differences and changes in loneliness and social isolation over time.

    “As such, the observed associations likely reflect a combination of trait-like differences and changes in loneliness and social isolation over time.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Findings do not support the evolutionary buffering hypothesis; socially isolated children who experience loneliness go on to have high levels of social isolation as they enter young adulthood, similar to children who did not experience loneliness.

    “Our findings do not support this buffering hypothesis, instead indicating that socially isolated children who experience loneliness go on to have high levels of social isolation as they enter young adulthood, similar to children who did not experience loneliness.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The pattern of associations between loneliness, isolation, and concurrent and later outcomes varied, with childhood social isolation particularly strongly associated with subsequent poor socioeconomic outcomes, and loneliness in young adulthood consistently co-occurring with mental health symptoms.

    “The pattern of associations between loneliness, isolation, and concurrent and later outcomes also varied, with childhood social isolation particularly strongly associated with subsequent poor socioeconomic outcomes, and loneliness in young adulthood consistently co-occurring with mental health symptoms.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The extreme groups approach has statistical limitations, and the results should be interpreted in the context of the underlying continuous distributions.

    “Nevertheless, this 'extreme groups' approach has statistical limitations, and the results should be interpreted in the context of the underlying continuous distributions (Preacher et al., 2005).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Preacher et al., 2005 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The research questions, hypotheses and analyses presented in this manuscript do not deviate from that described in the preregistration.

    “The research questions, hypotheses and analyses presented in this manuscript do not deviate from that described in the preregistration.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    All models adjust for sex, childhood socioeconomic status and childhood mental health.

    “All models adjust for sex, childhood socioeconomic status and childhood mental health.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The research questions, hypotheses and analysis plan was pre-registered at https://sites.duke.edu/moffittcaspiprojects/projects_ 2025/ on 8 April 2025.

    “The research questions, hypotheses and analysis plan was pre-registered at https://sites.duke.edu/moffittcaspiprojects/projects_ 2025/ on 8 April 2025.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    All participants in this study had a sibling of the same age, which may shape experiences of both loneliness and social isolation in childhood and adolescence and influence estimates of the associations between loneliness, social isolation and later outcomes.

    “All participants in this study had a sibling of the same age, which may shape experiences of both loneliness and social isolation in childhood and adolescence and influence estimates of the associations between loneliness, social isolation and later outcomes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The extent to which being a twin protects against isolation and loneliness is not well established.
64 of 64

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    How loneliness and social isolation relate and interact with each other over time has not been clearly characterized.

    “While this conceptual distinction between loneliness and social isolation is widely accepted across the research literature, how these constructs relate and interact with each other over time has not been clearly characterized.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Few studies have examined the role of loneliness in shaping social isolation over time.

    “While this conceptualization of loneliness as adaptive and motivating social connection is referenced widely in the literature on social connection (Hussain & Palmer, 2024;Maes & Vanhalst, 2025;Qualter et al., 2015), few studies have examined the role of loneliness in shaping social isolation over time.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Few studies have investigated how loneliness and social isolation work together, or separately, to shape later outcomes.

    “Similarly, while a growing body of evidence indicates that both loneliness and social isolation have wide-reaching consequences for individuals' health and life chances (Holt-Lunstad, 2017), few studies have investigated how loneliness and social isolation work together, or separately, to shape later outcomes.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The interplay of loneliness and social isolation before adulthood and their combined effects on poor outcomes are not well understood.

    “As a result, the interplay of loneliness and social isolation before adulthood and their combined effects on poor outcomes are not well understood.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Few studies have directly investigated the interplay of loneliness and social isolation over time or how they work together to shape outcomes.

    “Although there is growing concern about the corrosive effects of loneliness and social isolation for health and wellbeing, few studies have directly investigated their interplay over time or how they work together to shape outcomes.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The extent to which being a twin protects against isolation and loneliness is not well established.

    “However, the extent to which being a twin protects against isolation and loneliness is not well established.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Loneliness and social isolation both exist on a continuum and there is no consensus on how best to define whether an individual is lonely versus not lonely, or isolated versus not isolated.

    “Additionally, as loneliness and social isolation both exist on a continuum and there is no consensus on how best to define whether an individual is lonely versus not lonely, or isolated versus not isolated, we have treated both constructs as continuous wherever possible.”
7 of 7

Statistics recomputed

Every reported test result, recomputed from its test statistic and degrees of freedom. A result shows as not adding up only once an independent check has confirmed it.

  • Consistentχ²(1) = 2.68reported p = .1 · recomputed p = .102

    “χ 2 (1) = 2.68, p = .10”

  • Consistentχ²(1) = 3.7reported p = .05 · recomputed p = .054

    “χ 2 (1) = 3.7, p = .05”

2 of 2

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Discussion reverses the finding on childhood loneliness and educational attainment

    Major

    The discussion says the association between childhood loneliness and educational attainment was explained by childhood covariates. The results say that association persisted after accounting for those covariates.

1 of 1

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 8

  1. Kovacs, 1992, Multi-Health Systems, Toronto, ON
  2. Achenbach, 1991, Manual for the teacher’s peport form and 1991 profile
  3. Achenbach, 1991, Manual for the child behavior checklist/4-18 and 1991 profile
  4. Perlman, 1981, Toward a social psychology of loneliness, Personal Relationships in Disorder, 3, 31
  5. 2023, Stata statistical software: Release, 18
  6. Cacioppo, 2018, Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol, 58, 127
  7. John, 1999, Handbook of personality: Theory and research, 102
  8. 1994, Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Bryan, B. T., Thompson, K. N., Fisher, H. L., Matthews, T., Milne, B., & Arseneault, L.
Affiliations
  • King's College London (GB)
  • Purdue University West Lafayette (US)
  • University of Greenwich (GB)
  • University of Auckland (NZ)
Corresponding author
Arseneault, Louise
ORCID
Venue
Development and Psychopathology
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Published
2026-07-28
Volume
38
Issue
4
Pages
2012-2028
ISSN
  • 0954-5794 (ISSN-L)
  • 1469-2198
DOI
10.1017/s0954579426101758
OpenAlex
W7171500474
Cited by
1
References
74
Citations by year
2026: 1
FWCI
7.20
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Development and Psychopathology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Research Portal (King's College London) (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
  • Greenwich Academic Literature Archive (University of Greenwich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Health › Health disparities and outcomes
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Child and Adolescent Psychosocial and Emotional Development
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Bullying, Victimization, and Aggression
Keywords
loneliness, social isolation, adolescence, childhood loneliness, mental health, well-being, health behavior, socioeconomic outcomes, social reconnection, longitudinal development, Environmental Risk Longitudinal Twin Study
MeSH terms
Adolescent, Child, Female, United Kingdom, Humans, Loneliness, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Mental Health, Social Isolation, Health Behavior

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-16.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-16.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review