CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 26Bullying, Victimization, and AggressionChild and Adolescent Psychosocial and Emotional DevelopmentChild Abuse and Trauma

A cross‐lagged twin study of emotional symptoms, social isolation and peer victimisation from early adolescence to emerging adulthood

Open access
Morneau‐Vaillancourt, Geneviève, Oginni, Olakunle, Assary, Elham, Krebs, Georgina, Thompson, Ellen J., Palaiologou, Elisavet, Lockhart, Celestine, Arseneault, Louise +1 more·2023·Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry
DOI 10.1111/jcpp.13847PMC PMC7615178
Open this paper in CoChat — free accountOpen PDF

Abstract

Background: Emotional symptoms, such as anxiety and depressive symptoms, are common during adolescence, often persist over time, and can precede the emergence of severe anxiety and depressive disorders. Studies suggest that a vicious cycle of reciprocal influences between emotional symptoms and interpersonal difficulties may explain why some adolescents suffer from persisting emotional symptoms. However, the role of different types of interpersonal difficulties, such as social isolation and peer victimisation, in these reciprocal associations is still unclear. In addition, the lack of longitudinal twin studies conducted on emotional symptoms during adolescence means that the genetic and environmental contributions to these relationships during adolescence remain unknown. Methods: Participants ( N = 15,869) from the Twins Early Development Study completed self‐reports of emotional symptoms, social isolation and peer victimisation at 12, 16 and 21 years old. A phenotypic cross‐lagged model examined reciprocal associations between variables over time, and a genetic extension of this model examined the aetiology of the relationships between variables at each timepoint. Results: First, emotional symptoms were reciprocally and independently associated with both social isolation and peer victimisation over time, indicating that different forms of interpersonal difficulties uniquely contributed to emotional symptoms during adolescence and vice versa. Second, early peer victimisation predicted later emotional symptoms via social isolation in mid‐adolescence, indicating that social isolation may constitute an intermediate pathway through which peer victimisation predicts longer‐term emotional symptoms. Finally, individual differences in emotional symptoms were mostly accounted for by non‐shared environmental factors at each timepoint, and both gene–environment and individual‐specific environmental mechanisms were involved in the relationships between emotional symptoms and interpersonal difficulties. Conclusions: Our study highlights the necessity to intervene early in adolescence to prevent the escalation of emotional symptoms over time and to consider social isolation and peer victimisation as important risk factors for the long‐term persistence of emotional symptoms.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This longitudinal twin study found reciprocal, independent associations between emotional symptoms and both social isolation and peer victimisation from age 12 to 21, with social isolation in mid-adolescence mediating the path from early peer victimisation to later emotional symptoms. Non-shared environmental factors accounted for most variance in all variables, while both gene–environment and individual-specific environmental correlations contributed to their associations.

Key findings

  • Emotional symptoms were reciprocally and independently associated with social isolation and peer victimisation over time; cross-lagged paths were mostly significant (β = .03 to .12), except social isolation at 16 predicting peer victimisation at 21 (β = .01, 95% CI −.02, .03).
  • Peer victimisation at 12 indirectly predicted emotional symptoms at 21 via social isolation at 16 (β = .004, 95% CI .003, .007), explaining 3% of their correlation (.004/.141 = .028); the reverse indirect path was not significant (β = .001, 95% CI −.002, .003).
  • Non-shared environmental factors accounted for most variance at each timepoint: emotional symptoms E = .60 at 12, .60 at 16, .65 at 21; social isolation E = .61, .59, .61; peer victimisation E = .44, .55, .71.
  • Genetic correlations were moderate at 12 (rG = .46 to .60) and weaker later (rG = .33 to .48 at 16; .00 to .45 at 21); non-shared environmental correlations were weak but comparable across timepoints (rE = .12 to .19 at 12; .07 to .20 at 16; .06 and .27 at 21).

Methods

  • Participants were from the Twins Early Development Study (TEDS), a longitudinal twin cohort in England and Wales; N = 15,869 (54% female) with data for at least one measure in the phenotypic model, and N = 15,695 with zygosity available in the genetic model (2,727 complete MZ, 4,837 complete DZ, 138 incomplete MZ, 429 incomplete DZ pairs).
  • Self-reports at 12, 16 and 21 years measured emotional symptoms and social isolation using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (social isolation used four of five peer-problems items, excluding the bullying item), and peer victimisation using the Multidimensional Peer Victimisation Scale.
  • Phenotypic cross-lagged panel models were run in lavaan with full-information maximum likelihood, including bootstrapped indirect effects (1,000 iterations); a genetic cross-lagged twin model decomposed variance into additive genetic (A), shared environmental (C) and non-shared environmental (E) components in OpenMx, controlling for age and sex.

Limitations

  • The paper states that the cross-lagged model cannot disentangle between- from within-person effects or support causal inference, and that a random-intercept cross-lagged model was not used because it was not suitable for the study aims and twin decomposition.
  • The paper states that self-report measures may inflate within-person correlations via common method variance or increase non-shared environmental variance in twin analyses, and that 4–5-year assessment intervals may limit identification of specific developmental risk periods.
  • Evident from the text: peer victimisation at 16 was measured in a separate web survey with fewer participants (N = 5,236), and at 21 the victimisation definition was broader, including people from wider social networks such as work colleagues.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1111/jcpp.13847

Cites

70 of 70 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

15 of 45 cited sources checked · 6 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Interpretationcitation

    The finding that change in emotional and social problems is primarily accounted for by environmental influences is consistent with longitudinal twin studies.

    “As such, this finding is consistent with longitudinal twin studies showing that change in emotional and social problems is primarily accounted for by environmental influences (Brendgen et al., 2022; Matthews et al., 2022; Nivard et al., 2015).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Brendgen et al., 2022

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Matthews et al., 2022 source

      The Results (Biometric analyses) report that nonshared environmental influences explained 58% of change in loneliness between ages 12 and 18, supporting the claim for this social difficulty. The paper does not establish that environmental influences primarily account for change in emotional and social problems generally. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Nivard et al., 2015 source
  • Interpretationcitation

    Adolescents who experience peer victimisation during the first years of secondary school may develop a tendency to withdraw from social interactions.

    “suggesting that adolescents who experience peer victimisation during the first years of secondary school may develop a tendency to withdraw from social interactions (Barzeva et al., 2020; Oh et al., 2008).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Barzeva et al., 2020 source
    • cites Oh et al., 2008

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Findingown data

    Emotional symptoms at 12 years do not predict peer victimisation at 21 years via social isolation at 16 years.

    “However, we did not observe the reverse sequence of associations, as emotional symptoms at 12 years did not predict peer victimisation at 21 years via social isolation: β = .001 (95% CI = −.002, .003).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Emotional symptoms and peer victimisation are reciprocally associated over time from 12 to 21 years old.

    “First, emotional symptoms were reciprocally and independently associated with both social isolation and peer victimisation over time, indicating that different forms of interpersonal difficulties uniquely contributed to emotional symptoms during adolescence and vice versa.”
    • Also stated in: § Phenotypic cross‐lagged model · plain
      “Overall, the phenotypic cross‐lagged model showed that emotional symptoms at 12 and 16 years were independently and reciprocally associated with both social isolation and peer victimisation at 16 and 21 years, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Social isolation and peer victimisation equally predicted emotional symptoms.

    “We found that emotional symptoms equally predicted social isolation and peer victimisation and that conversely, both forms of interpersonal difficulties equally predicted emotional symptoms.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 30
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 13

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Negative peer interactions increase emotional symptoms via non-shared environmental pathways, unconfounded by pre-existing genetic dispositions or by features of the familial environment shared by both twins.

    “Furthermore, twin studies show that negative peer interactions increase emotional symptoms via non‐shared environmental pathways, providing evidence that these associations are unconfounded by pre‐existing genetic dispositions or by features of the familial environment shared by both twins (Arseneault et al., 2008; Schaefer et al., 2018; Silberg et al., 2016).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Arseneault et al., 2008 source
    • cites Schaefer et al., 2018 source

      The Results (page unavailable in our copy) find that adolescent poly-victimization remains associated with early-adult general psychopathology within identical-twin pairs, so shared genes and family environment do not fully explain the association. But the Discussion says a nonshared environmental factor could be an unmeasured third variable rather than a causal effect. The study could not test whether peer victimization specifically predicts psychopathology independently of shared genetic and family factors, and its twin analysis did not isolate emotional symptoms. (LLM, conf=0.89)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Silberg et al., 2016 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Emotionally vulnerable adolescents often struggle with anxiety in social situations.

    “This may be the case for emotionally vulnerable adolescents, who often struggle with anxiety in social situations (Nilsen, Karevold, Roysamb, Gustavson, & Mathiesen, 2013; Pickard, Rijsdijk, Happé, & Mandy, 2017).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Nilsen, Karevold, Roysamb, Gustavson, & Mathiesen, 2013

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Pickard, Rijsdijk, Happé, & Mandy, 2017 source

      The Abstract (Results; page unavailable) reports that greater social and communication difficulties were associated with greater social-anxiety symptoms at ages 7, 10, and 13. The paper supports a link between difficulties and social anxiety in young people, but it does not identify the group as “emotionally vulnerable adolescents” or establish how often that group experiences social anxiety. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Emotional symptoms often remain untreated and show continuity into adulthood, where they can escalate into full-syndrome and recurrent anxiety and depressive disorders.

    “Unfortunately, emotional symptoms often remain untreated and show continuity into adulthood, where they can escalate into full‐syndrome and recurrent anxiety and depressive disorders (Johnson et al., 2018; Kwong et al., 2019; Naicker, Galambos, Zeng, Senthilselvan, & Colman, 2013; Wolitzky‐Taylor et al., 2014).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Johnson et al., 2018 source

      Sections 4.1 and 4.2 link adolescent depression with adult depression and anxiety disorders, and the Introduction reports an increased risk of recurrent major depression. But the review studies adolescents meeting criteria for depression, not emotional symptoms generally progressing to full-syndrome disorders. Section 4.4 says treatment after adolescent depression was not measured, so the claim that symptoms often remain untreated is not established. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Kwong et al., 2019 source

      The Results (Trajectories of Depression Symptoms; page unavailable) identify a group whose depressive symptoms remained high from adolescence into young adulthood, supporting continuity for some individuals. The Introduction also notes a risk of later psychopathology among people with elevated or subthreshold depressive symptoms. Neither passage establishes that emotional symptoms often go untreated or develop into full-syndrome, recurrent anxiety and depressive disorders. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Naicker, Galambos, Zeng, Senthilselvan, & Colman, 2013 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Social isolation and peer victimisation are both heritable (30% to 70%).

    “Social isolation and peer victimisation do not occur randomly and are both heritable (30% to 70%), suggesting that genetic factors contribute to individual differences in these social difficulties (Fisher et al., 2015; Johansson et al., 2022; Matthews et al., 2016; Veldkamp et al., 2019).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Fisher et al., 2015 source

      The Discussion section on genetic and environmental influences on victimization exposure reports significant but modest heritability for peer/sibling victimization. Our copy does not report heritability of social isolation or establish the claimed 30%–70% range for both difficulties. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Johansson et al., 2022

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Matthews et al., 2016 source

      The Results report that genetic influences accounted for 40% of the variance in social isolation, within the claimed 30%–70% range. The cited paper does not report a heritability estimate for peer victimisation, so it supports only the social-isolation part of the attributed claim. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    These adolescents may miss out on opportunities to create meaningful relationships and gain confidence in their social abilities, which may ultimately exacerbate emotional problems over time.

    “Consequently, these adolescents may miss out on opportunities to create meaningful relationships and gain confidence in their social abilities, which may ultimately exacerbate emotional problems over time (Rubin et al., 2009).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Rubin et al., 2009 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Peer victimisation is both a precursor and an outcome of emotional symptoms.

    “Peer victimisation affects 10%–35% of adolescents and is both a precursor and an outcome of emotional symptoms (Cook, Williams, Guerra, Kim, & Sadek, 2010; Modecki, Minchin, Harbaugh, Guerra, & Runions, 2014; Moore et al., 2017; Reijntjes, Kamphuis, Prinzie, & Telch, 2010).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Cook, Williams, Guerra, Kim, & Sadek, 2010 source
    • cites Modecki, Minchin, Harbaugh, Guerra, & Runions, 2014 source
    • cites Moore et al., 2017 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    As peer relationships become more salient during adolescence, young individuals who show persistent difficulties with social relationships may be viewed as deviating from the peer group norms.

    “As peer relationships become more salient during adolescence, young individuals who show persistent difficulties with social relationships may be viewed as deviating from the peer group norms (Brown & Larson, 2009; Oh et al., 2008; Rubin, Bukowski, & Parker, 2006).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Brown & Larson, 2009 source

      The ‘Conventional Wisdom About Peer Relations’ section says peer relationships become more salient in adolescence and discusses poor social skills and peer rejection. It does not say that young people with persistent social-relationship difficulties are viewed as deviating from peer-group norms; that part of the claim is not supported by the passages found. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.82)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Oh et al., 2008

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Rubin, Bukowski, & Parker, 2006

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The cross-lagged panel model was also suitable to twin decomposition, as shown in previous studies using the same twin model, and examining the genetic and environmental associations between variables was a central aim of the study.

    “The cross‐lagged panel model was also suitable to twin decomposition, as shown in previous studies using the same twin model (e.g., Burt et al., 2005), and examining the genetic and environmental associations between variables was a central aim of our study.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Burt et al., 2005 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The finding is in line with studies showing genetic and environmental overlap between emotional symptoms and negative peer experiences but also extends them by providing evidence of these etiological processes at different periods during adolescence and early adulthood.

    “This finding is in line with studies showing genetic and environmental overlap between emotional symptoms and negative peer experiences but also extends them by providing evidence of these etiological processes at different periods during adolescence and early adulthood (Brendgen et al., 2013, 2022; Matthews et al., 2016; Schaefer et al., 2018; Silberg et al., 2016; Smith et al., 2021).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Brendgen et al., 2013, 2022

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Matthews et al., 2016 source
    • cites Schaefer et al., 2018 source

      Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Cross-lagged paths were statistically significant for most part (β = .03 to .12), except the path from social isolation at 16 years to peer victimisation at 21 years (β = .01, 95% CI −.02, .03).

    “Cross‐lagged paths were statistically significant for the most part (β = .03 to .12), except for the cross‐lagged path from social isolation at 16 years to peer victimisation at 21 years: β = .01 (95% CI: −.02, .03).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Both gene-environment and non-shared environmental correlations accounted for the associations between emotional symptoms, social isolation and peer victimisation at each timepoint.

    “and that both gene–environment and non‐shared environmental correlations accounted for their associations at each timepoint.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The final genetic model included AE factors for most variables, except victimisation at 12 years old, which had a significant C component.

    “The final model included AE factors for most variables, except for victimisation at 12 years old, which had a significant C component.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Genetic correlations were moderate at 12 years and were weaker at later timepoints (rG at 12 years = .46 to .60; rG at 16 years = .33 to .48; rG at 21 years = .00 to .45).

    “Genetic correlations were moderate at 12 years and were weaker at later timepoints (rG at 12 years = .46 to .60; rG at 16 years = .33 to .48; rG at 21 years = .00 to .45).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Genetic and environmental correlations were mostly significant, indicating that emotional symptoms, social isolation and peer victimisation shared both genetic and environmental risks at each timepoint.

    “Genetic and environmental correlations were mostly significant, indicating that emotional symptoms, social isolation and peer victimisation shared both genetic and environmental risks at each timepoint.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Social isolation did not significantly explain the link between emotional symptoms in early adolescence and peer victimisation in emerging adulthood, as social isolation in mid-adolescence did not significantly predict later peer victimisation.

    “However, social isolation did not significantly explain the link between emotional symptoms in early adolescence and peer victimisation in emerging adulthood, as social isolation in mid‐adolescence did not significantly predict later peer victimisation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Gene-environment correlations were larger at 12 years than at later timepoints, while the magnitude of non-shared environmental correlations was consistent across timepoints.

    “Interestingly, the gene–environment correlations were larger at 12 years than at later timepoints, while the magnitude of non‐shared environmental correlations was consistent across timepoints.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Non-shared environmental influences accounted for most of individual differences in emotional symptoms, social isolation and peer victimisation, and the magnitude of these influences was consistent across timepoints.

    “We further found that non‐shared environmental influences accounted for most of individual differences in emotional symptoms, social isolation and peer victimisation and that the magnitude of these influences was consistent across timepoints.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The analysis plan was pre-registered.

    “The analysis plan was pre‐registered (https://osf.io/sjb5a/?view_only=1ce2374f6e15467ebd2cf626538fbe19).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    The twin method decomposes phenotypic variance and covariance into genetic (A), shared (C) and non-shared (E) environmental factors.

    “The twin method relies on these assumptions to decompose phenotypic variance and covariance into genetic (A), shared (C) and non‐shared (E) environmental factors (Rijsdijk & Sham, 2002).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Rijsdijk & Sham, 2002

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    Estimates were similar across sensitivity models using one twin per pair and twin pairs in OpenMx, so the model using all participants (N = 15,869) is reported.

    “Estimates were similar across these models, so we report the results of the model using all participants (N = 15,869).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Both gene-environment and individual-specific environmental mechanisms were involved in the relationships between emotional symptoms and interpersonal difficulties.

    “Finally, individual differences in emotional symptoms were mostly accounted for by non‐shared environmental factors at each timepoint, and both gene–environment and individual‐specific environmental mechanisms were involved in the relationships between emotional symptoms and interpersonal difficulties.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The SDQ emotional symptoms and peer problems subscales show good convergent validity and measurement invariance over time.

    “Both emotional symptoms and peer problems SDQ subscales show good convergent validity as well as measurement invariance over time (Goodman & Scott, 1999; Speyer, Auyeng, & Murray, 2022; Vugteveen, de Bildt, Theunissen, Reijneveld, & Timmerman, 2021).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Goodman & Scott, 1999 source
    • cites Speyer, Auyeng, & Murray, 2022

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Vugteveen, de Bildt, Theunissen, Reijneveld, & Timmerman, 2021

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The cross-lagged model accounted for stability across timepoints and pre-existing relationships between variables, thereby assessing prediction of incremental changes in variables over time.

    “It accounted for the stability across timepoints and pre‐existing relationships between variables, thereby assessing the prediction of incremental changes in variables over time (Adachi & Willoughby, 2015).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Adachi & Willoughby, 2015 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    The findings align with prior studies supporting a transactional model of reciprocal influences between emotional symptoms and negative peer interactions, but also extend them by including another aspect of interpersonal difficulties.

    “Our findings align with prior studies supporting a transactional model of reciprocal influences between emotional symptoms and negative peer interactions (e.g., Smith et al., 2022), but also extend them by including another aspect of interpersonal difficulties.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Smith et al., 2022

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • Rests on an assumption: Prior research has mainly focused on the links between emotional symptoms and peer victimisation without considering that adolescents experiencing anxiety and depressive symptoms may also experience other, maybe less obvious, types of interpersonal difficulties such as social isolation.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    Removing the peer problems item 'Others pick on me or bully me' did not affect the reliability of the social isolation scale; sensitivity analyses using the full five-item subscale were highly similar.

    “We also conducted sensitivity analyses using the full five‐item peer problems subscale to see whether removing one item would affect the reliability of the scale. Results suggest that it did not, as they were highly similar to results obtained using the four‐item social isolation measure (see Table S2, Figure S1 and S2).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Because the study aimed to understand why some adolescents were at higher risk for emotional symptoms than others and to examine the risk factors associated with the persistence of emotional symptoms, the cross-lagged panel model was more appropriate.

    “However, because we aimed to understand why some adolescents were at higher risk for emotional symptoms than others and examine the risk factors associated with the persistence of emotional symptoms, the cross‐lagged panel model was more appropriate.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Further methodological work would have been required to apply the twin method to a random-intercept cross-lagged model, as this has never been done before.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Although social isolation in mid-adolescence was associated with later increases in emotional symptoms, being socially isolated at 16 years may carry less risk for peer victimisation in emerging adulthood.

    “Therefore, although social isolation in mid‐adolescence was associated with later increases in emotional symptoms, our findings suggest that being socially isolated at 16 years may carry less risk for peer victimisation in emerging adulthood.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Assessments were separated by a large time interval (i.e., 4-5 years) and this may have affected the capacity to identify the specific developmental periods at which risks were most important.

    “Third, assessments were separated by a large time interval (i.e., 4–5 years) and this may have affected our capacity to identify the specific developmental periods at which risks were most important.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    The findings could either reflect between-person processes, where adolescents who manifest more emotional symptoms than their peers are also more victimised, or within-person processes, where adolescents' fluctuations in emotional symptoms lead to more peer victimisation than what they usually experience.

    “Our findings could either reflect between‐person processes, where adolescents who manifest more emotional symptoms than their peers are also more victimised, or within‐person processes, where adolescents' fluctuations in emotional symptoms lead to more peer victimisation than what they usually experience.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation

    Some of the non-shared environmental contributions could include risk factors with a broader impact on both emotional and social domains, such as negative relationships with parents and peers.

    “Some of these non‐shared environmental contributions could include risk factors with a broader impact on both emotional and social domains such as negative relationships with parents and peers (Kaufman, Kretschmer, Huitsing, & Veenstra, 2019).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Kaufman, Kretschmer, Huitsing, & Veenstra, 2019

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Peer victimisation may also be less common once adolescents finish secondary school and are no longer exposed to their peers every day.

    “Peer victimisation may also be less common once adolescents finish secondary school and are no longer exposed to their peers every day.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The cross-lagged model does not disentangle between- from within-person effects and cannot be used to answer causal inference hypotheses.

    “First, the cross‐lagged model does not disentangle between‐ from within‐person effects and cannot be used to answer causal inference hypotheses (Hamaker, Kuiper, & Grasman, 2015).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hamaker, Kuiper, & Grasman, 2015 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The mechanisms underlying emotional symptoms during adolescence involve reciprocal associations with social isolation and peer victimisation, and both genetic and environmental influences play a role in these mechanisms.

    “In summary, our study shows that the mechanisms underlying emotional symptoms during adolescence involve reciprocal associations with social isolation and peer victimisation and that both genetic and environmental influences play a role in these mechanisms.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    New etiological processes emerge over time, suggesting that the genetic and non-shared environmental factors responsible for the relationships between emotional symptoms and interpersonal difficulties are not the same at 12, 16 and 21 years.

    “Nonetheless, this means that new etiological processes emerge over time, perhaps suggesting that the genetic and non‐shared environmental factors responsible for the relationships between emotional symptoms and interpersonal difficulties are not the same at 12, 16 and 21 years.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Some of the variances in self-reported measures may be due to self-perception biases and may be responsible for inflating within-person correlations between variables (i.e., common method variance) or increasing non-shared environmental variance in twin analyses.

    “Second, some of the variances in self‐reported measures may be due to self‐perception biases and may be responsible for inflating within‐person correlations between variables (i.e., common method variance) or increasing non‐shared environmental variance in twin analyses.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Being socially isolated reduces opportunities for socialising and establishing new relationships during the transition to emerging adulthood, thereby leading to more distress and emotional symptoms over time.

    “In turn, being socially isolated reduces opportunities for socialising and establishing new relationships during the transition to emerging adulthood, thereby leading to more distress and emotional symptoms over time (Oh et al., 2008; Rubin et al., 2006, 2009).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Oh et al., 2008

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Rubin et al., 2006, 2009

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

36 of 36

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Monozygotic twins share 100% of their segregating genes, and dizygotic twins share on average 50% of their segregating genes.

    “The twin method compares DZ twins, who share on average 50% of their segregating genes, to MZ twins, who share 100% of their genes.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Twins grow up in the same familial environment, so shared environmental factors increase similarity between twins.

    “Because twins grow up in the same familial environment, contributions from shared environmental factors are expected to increase the similarity between twins.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Non-shared environmental factors unique to each twin increase differences between twins.

    “Conversely, non‐shared environmental factors unique to each twin are expected to increase differences between twins.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The cross-lagged associations reflect causal processes rather than unmeasured confounding.

    “Our study highlights the necessity to intervene early in adolescence to prevent the escalation of emotional symptoms over time and to consider social isolation and peer victimisation as important risk factors for the long‐term persistence of emotional symptoms.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The present study is the first to use a genetically sensitive design to document the reciprocal associations between emotional symptoms and two different forms of interpersonal difficulties, social isolation and peer victimisation, over an extended period during adolescence and early adulthood.

    “The present study is the first to use a genetically sensitive design to document the reciprocal associations between emotional symptoms (i.e., anxiety and depressive symptoms) and two different forms of interpersonal difficulties, social isolation and peer victimisation, over an extended period during adolescence and early adulthood.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Prior research has mainly focused on the links between emotional symptoms and peer victimisation without considering that adolescents experiencing anxiety and depressive symptoms may also experience other, maybe less obvious, types of interpersonal difficulties such as social isolation.

    “Prior research has mainly focused on the links between emotional symptoms and peer victimisation without considering that adolescents experiencing anxiety and depressive symptoms may also experience other, maybe less obvious, types of interpersonal difficulties such as social isolation.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Further methodological work would have been required to apply the twin method to a random-intercept cross-lagged model, as this has never been done before.

    “Further methodological work would have been required to apply the twin method to a random‐intercept cross‐lagged model, as this has never been done before.”
7 of 7

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • The study used measures of social isolation that capture low embeddedness within age-appropriate social networks, consistent with prior research that conceptualizes childhood isolation in terms of peer relationships.

    “We used measures of social isolation that capture low embeddedness within age-appropriate social networks, which is consistent with prior research that conceptualizes childhood isolation in terms of peer relationships (e.g., Lacey et al., 2014;Matthews et al., 2016;Morneau-Vaillancourt et al., 2023;Thompson et al., 2023).”

    From Investigating the interplay of loneliness and social isolation across adolescence: Findings from a nationally representative longitudinal study (2026) · cites this paper as Morneau-Vaillancourt et al., 2023

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • C is described as both shared and non-shared environment

    Minor

    The results call the C component non-shared environmental factors, whereas the methods define C as shared environmental factors.

1 of 1

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. RStudio Team, 2022, RStudio: Integrated development environment for R
  2. Rubin K.H., 2006, Handbook of child psychology: Social, emotional, and personality development, 571

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Morneau‐Vaillancourt, G., Oginni, O., Assary, E., Krebs, G., Thompson, E. J., Palaiologou, E., Lockhart, C., Arseneault, L., & Eley, T. C.
Affiliations
King's College London (GB)
Corresponding author
Eley, Thalia C.
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2023-06-06
Volume
64
Issue
11
Pages
1569-1582
ISSN
  • 0021-9630 (ISSN-L)
  • 1469-7610
DOI
10.1111/jcpp.13847
PMC
PMC7615178
OpenAlex
W4379599835
Semantic Scholar
d02f79e2d3eeb1e48fc5206603567e222589b944
Cited by
26
References
68
Citations by year
2026: 11 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 4
FWCI
7.49
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University) (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
  • UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
  • ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University) (submittedVersion)
  • Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Greater South Information System
Funders
  • King's College London
  • Medical Research Council (MR/M021475/1, MR/V012878/1)
  • National Institutes of Health (AG046938)
  • Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (756‐2021‐0516)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Bullying, Victimization, and Aggression
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Child and Adolescent Psychosocial and Emotional Development
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Child Abuse and Trauma
Keywords
emotional symptoms, social isolation, peer victimization, anxiety, depression, bidirectional relationship, early adolescence, emerging adulthood, nonshared environment, gene-environment mediation, interpersonal problems, longitudinal twin study, Twins Early Development Study
MeSH terms
Adolescent, Anxiety, Emotions, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Peer Group, Social Isolation, Young Adult, Bullying

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-16.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-16.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review