Cited by 9,068Meta-analysis and systematic reviewsPsychology Research and Bibliometricsscientometrics and bibliometrics research

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 16 of the 16 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

The file drawer problem and tolerance for null results.

Rosenthal, Robert·1979·Psychological Bulletin

Abstract

For any given research area, one cannot tell how many studies have been con-ducted but never reported. The extreme view of the "file drawer problem " is that journals are filled with the 5 % of the studies that show Type I errors, while the file drawers are filled with the 95 % of the studies that show non-significant results. Quantitative procedures for computing the tolerance for filed and future null results are reported and illustrated, and the implications are discussed. Both behavioral researchers and statisti-cians have long suspected that the studies published in the behavioral sciences are a biased sample of the studies that are actually carried out (Bakan, 1967; McNemar, 1960; Smart, 1964; Sterling, 1959). The extreme view of this problem, the "file drawer prob-lem, " is that the journals are filled with the 5 % of the studies that show Type I errors, while the file drawers back at the lab are filled with the 95 % of the studies that show nonsignificant (e.g., p>.05) results. In the past there was very little one could do to assess the net effect of studies, tucked away in file drawers, that did not make the magic.05 level (Rosenthal & Gaito, 1963, 1964). Now, however, although no definitive solution to the problem is available, one can establish reasonable boundaries on the prob-lem and estimate the degree of damage to any research conclusion that could be done by the file drawer problem. This advance in our ability to cope with the file drawer is an outgrowth of the in-creasing interest of behavioral scientists in summarizing bodies of research literature sys-Preparation of this article was supported in part by the National Science Foundation. I would like to thank Judith A. Hall and Donald B. Rubin for their valuable improvements of an earlier version of this article. Requests for reprints should be sent to Robert

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Crossref · 10.1037/0033-2909.86.3.638

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Metadata

Authors
Rosenthal, R.
Affiliations
Harvard University (US)
Corresponding author
Rosenthal, Robert
Venue
Psychological Bulletin
Published
1979-05
Volume
86
Issue
3
Pages
638-641
ISSN
  • 0033-2909 (ISSN-L)
  • 1939-1455
OpenAlex
W2006546769
Cited by
9,068
References
16
Citations by year
2026: 421 · 2025: 521 · 2024: 509 · 2023: 526 · 2022: 525 · 2021: 536 · 2020: 612 · 2019: 607 · 2018: 492 · 2017: 436 · 2016: 417 · 2015: 392 · 2014: 337 · 2013: 289 · 2012: 252
FWCI
26.44
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
Psychological Bulletin (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
  • Social Sciences › Library and Information Sciences › scientometrics and bibliometrics research
Keywords
file drawer problem, negative results, publication bias, non-significant results, type I error, selective reporting, behavioral science, evidence synthesis

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