Subjective confidence reflects representation of Bayesian probability in cortex
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
What gives rise to the human sense of confidence? Here we tested the Bayesian hypothesis that confidence is based on a probability distribution represented in neural population activity. We implemented several computational models of confidence and tested their predictions using psychophysics and functional magnetic resonance imaging. Using a generative model-based decoding technique, we extracted probability distributions from neural population activity in human visual cortex. We found that subjective confidence tracks the shape of the decoded distribution. That is, when sensory evidence was more precise, as indicated by the decoded distribution, observers reported higher levels of confidence. We furthermore found that neural activity in the insula, anterior cingulate and prefrontal cortex was linked to both the shape of the decoded distribution and reported confidence, in ways consistent with the Bayesian model. Altogether, our findings support recent statistical theories of confidence and suggest that probabilistic information guides the computation of one's sense of confidence.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Geurts et al. (2022) found that reported confidence was negatively correlated with a readout of uncertainty in visual cortex, even when the stimulus was held fixed.
“They found that reported confidence was negatively correlated with such a readout of uncertainty, even when the stimulus was held fixed.”
From Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis (2024) · cites this paper as Geurts et al. 2022
The decoder's readout of sensory uncertainty in early visual areas is correlated with univariate fMRI signals in prefrontal cortex, consistent with domain-specific uncertainty estimates informing globally available estimates of propositional confidence.
“Finally, in the study by Geurts et al. (2022) described above, the decoder's readout of sensory uncertainty in early visual areas was correlated with univariate fMRI signals in prefrontal cortex, consistent with domain-specific uncertainty estimates informing globally available estimates of propositional confidence.”
From Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis (2024) · cites this paper as Geurts et al. 2022
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Desikan, R. S., Ségonne, F., Fischl, B., Quinn, B. T., Dickerson, B. C., Blacker, D., Buckner, R. L., Dale, A. M., Maguire, R. P., Hyman, B. T., et al. (2006) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2006.01.021 · Cited by 13,324 · see citing works
Jenkinson, M., Bannister, P., Brady, M., & Smith, S. (2002) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1006/nimg.2002.1132 · Cited by 11,888 · see citing works
Jenkinson, M., Beckmann, C. F., Behrens, T. E. J., Woolrich, M. W., & Smith, S. M. (2012) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2011.09.015 · Cited by 11,314 · see citing works
Fast robust automated brain extraction
Smith, S. M. (2002) · Human Brain Mapping · doi:10.1002/hbm.10062 · Cited by 10,496 · see citing works
Cohen, J. (1992) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037//0033-2909.112.1.155 · Cited by 8,771 · see citing works
Zhang, Y., Brady, M., & Smith, S. M. (2001) · IEEE Transactions on Medical Imaging · doi:10.1109/42.906424 · Cited by 7,628 · see citing works
SMITH, S., & NICHOLS, T. (2009) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2008.03.061 · Cited by 5,250 · see citing works
The Neural Basis of Decision Making
Gold, J. I., & Shadlen, M. N. (2007) · Annual Review of Neuroscience · doi:10.1146/annurev.neuro.29.051605.113038 · Cited by 3,764 · see citing works
Permutation inference for the general linear model
Winkler, A. M., Ridgway, G. R., Webster, M. A., Smith, S. M., & Nichols, T. E. (2014) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2014.01.060 · Cited by 3,563 · see citing works
SUSAN—a new approach to low level image processing
Smith, S. M., & Brady, J. M. (1997) · International Journal of Computer Vision · doi:10.1023/a:1007963824710 · Cited by 3,333 · see citing works
Schuirmann, D. J. (1987) · Journal of Pharmacokinetics and Biopharmaceutics · doi:10.1007/bf01068419 · Cited by 2,696 · see citing works
Circular analysis in systems neuroscience: the dangers of double dipping
Kriegeskorte, N., Simmons, W. K., Bellgowan, P. S. F., & Baker, C. I. (2009) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.2303 · Cited by 2,696 · see citing works
Borders of Multiple Visual Areas in Humans Revealed by Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Sereno, M. I., Dale, A. M., Reppas, J. B., Kwong, K. K., Belliveau, J. W., Brady, T. J., Rosen, B. R., & Tootell, R. B. H. (1995) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.7754376 · Cited by 2,623 · see citing works
Within-subject template estimation for unbiased longitudinal image analysis
Reuter, M., Schmansky, N. J., Rosas, H. D., & Fischl, B. (2012) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2012.02.084 · Cited by 2,356 · see citing works
Learning the value of information in an uncertain world
Behrens, T. E. J., Woolrich, M. W., Walton, M. E., & Rushworth, M. F. S. (2007) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn1954 · Cited by 2,053 · see citing works
Kastner, S., Pinsk, M. A., De Weerd, P., Desimone, R., & Ungerleider, L. G. (1999) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/s0896-6273(00)80734-5 · Cited by 1,622 · see citing works
Retinotopic organization in human visual cortex and the spatial precision of functional MRI
Engel, S. A. (1997) · Cerebral Cortex · doi:10.1093/cercor/7.2.181 · Cited by 1,606 · see citing works
Decoding reveals the contents of visual working memory in early visual areas
Harrison, S. A., & Tong, F. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature07832 · Cited by 1,347 · see citing works
A common role of insula in feelings, empathy and uncertainty
Singer, T., Critchley, H. D., & Preuschoff, K. (2009) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.tics.2009.05.001 · Cited by 1,270 · see citing works
Controlling the familywise error rate in functional neuroimaging: a comparative review
Nichols, T. E., & Hayasaka, S. (2003) · Statistical Methods in Medical Research · doi:10.1191/0962280203sm341ra · Cited by 1,210 · see citing works
Appelle, S. (1972) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/h0033117 · Cited by 1,049 · see citing works
Mapping striate and extrastriate visual areas in human cerebral cortex.
DeYoe, E. A., Carman, G. J., Bandettini, P. A., Glickman, S., Wieser, J., Cox, R. W., Miller, D. A., & Jay Neitz, A. (1996) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.93.6.2382 · Cited by 1,047 · see citing works
Representation of Confidence Associated with a Decision by Neurons in the Parietal Cortex
Kiani, R., & Shadlen, M. N. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1169405 · Cited by 1,027 · see citing works
Chang, L. J., Yarkoni, T., Khaw, M. W., & Sanfey, A. G. (2013) · Cerebral Cortex · doi:10.1093/cercor/bhs065 · Cited by 879 · see citing works
Choice, uncertainty and value in prefrontal and cingulate cortex
Rushworth, M. F. S., & Behrens, T. E. J. (2008) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn2066 · Cited by 866 · see citing works
Neural correlates, computation and behavioural impact of decision confidence
Kepecs, A., Uchida, N., Zariwala, H. A., & Mainen, Z. F. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature07200 · Cited by 809 · see citing works
The neural basis of metacognitive ability
Fleming, S. M., & Dolan, R. J. (2012) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0417 · Cited by 747 · see citing works
Kolling, N., Behrens, T. E. J., Mars, R. B., & Rushworth, M. F. S. (2012) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1216930 · Cited by 629 · see citing works
Cardinal rules: visual orientation perception reflects knowledge of environmental statistics
Girshick, A. R., Landy, M. S., & Simoncelli, E. P. (2011) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.2831 · Cited by 613 · see citing works
Dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and the value of control
Shenhav, A., Cohen, J. D., & Botvinick, M. (2016) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.4384 · Cited by 573 · see citing works
The extent and drivers of gender imbalance in neuroscience reference lists
Dworkin, J. D., Linn, K. A., Teich, E. G., Zurn, P., Shinohara, R. T., & Bassett, D. S. (2020) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/s41593-020-0658-y · Cited by 543 · see citing works
Confidence in value-based choice
De Martino, B., Fleming, S. M., Garrett, N., & Dolan, R. J. (2013) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.3279 · Cited by 534 · see citing works
Partitioning neuronal variability
Goris, R. L. T., Movshon, J. A., & Simoncelli, E. P. (2014) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.3711 · Cited by 528 · see citing works
Confidence and certainty: Distinct probabilistic quantities for different goals
Pouget, A., Drugowitsch, J., & Kepecs, A. (2016) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.4240 · Cited by 528 · see citing works
Activity in primary visual cortex predicts performance in a visual detection task
Ress, D. B., Backus, B. T., & Heeger, D. J. (2000) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/78856 · Cited by 501 · see citing works
Value, search, persistence and model updating in anterior cingulate cortex
Kolling, N., Wittmann, M. K., Behrens, T. E. J., Boorman, E. D., Mars, R. B., & Rushworth, M. F. S. (2016) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.4382 · Cited by 439 · see citing works
The organization of dorsal frontal cortex in humans and macaques
Sallet, J., Mars, R. B., Noonan, M. P., Neubert, F.-X., Jbabdi, S., O'Reilly, J. X., Filippini, N., Thomas, A. G., & Rushworth, M. F. (2013) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.5108-12.2013 · Cited by 416 · see citing works
Prefrontal Contributions to Metacognition in Perceptual Decision Making
Fleming, S. M., Huijgen, J., & Dolan, R. J. (2012) · The Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.6489-11.2012 · Cited by 391 · see citing works
A Bayesian observer model constrained by efficient coding can explain 'anti-Bayesian' percepts
Wei, X.-X., & Stocker, A. A. (2015) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.4105 · Cited by 387 · see citing works
An oblique effect in human primary visual cortex
Furmanski, C. S., & Engel, S. A. (2000) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/75702 · Cited by 370 · see citing works
Neubert, F.-X., Mars, R. B., Sallet, J., & Rushworth, M. F. S. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1410767112 · Cited by 365 · see citing works
Value-Based Modulations in Human Visual Cortex
Serences, J. T. (2008) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2008.10.051 · Cited by 353 · see citing works
Confidence as Bayesian probability: From neural origins to behavior
Meyniel, F., Sigman, M., & Mainen, Z. F. (2015) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2015.09.039 · Cited by 349 · see citing works
A Neural Representation of Categorization Uncertainty in the Human Brain
Grinband, J., Hirsch, J., & Ferrera, V. P. (2006) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2006.01.032 · Cited by 330 · see citing works
Baird, B., Smallwood, J., Gorgolewski, K. J., & Margulies, D. S. (2013) · The Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.0786-13.2013 · Cited by 315 · see citing works
A computational framework for the study of confidence in humans and animals
Kepecs, A., & Mainen, Z. F. (2012) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0037 · Cited by 305 · see citing works
Anatomical coupling between distinct metacognitive systems for memory and visual perception
McCurdy, L. Y., Maniscalco, B., Metcalfe, J., Liu, K. Y., de Lange, F. P., & Lau, H. (2013) · The Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.1890-12.2013 · Cited by 299 · see citing works
Coexisting representations of sensory and mnemonic information in human visual cortex
Rademaker, R. L., Chunharas, C., & Serences, J. T. (2019) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/s41593-019-0428-x · Cited by 298 · see citing works
Morales, J., Lau, H., & Fleming, S. M. (2018) · The Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.2360-17.2018 · Cited by 274 · see citing works
Avoiding non-independence in fMRI data analysis: Leave one subject out
Esterman, M. S., Tamber-Rosenau, B. J., Chiu, Y., & Yantis, S. (2009) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2009.10.092 · Cited by 262 · see citing works
Signatures of a Statistical Computation in the Human Sense of Confidence
Sanders, J. I., Hangya, B., & Kepecs, A. (2016) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2016.03.025 · Cited by 253 · see citing works
Network Resets in Medial Prefrontal Cortex Mark the Onset of Behavioral Uncertainty
Karlsson, M. P., Tervo, D. G. R., & Karpova, A. Y. (2012) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1226518 · Cited by 236 · see citing works
Cross-orientation suppression in human visual cortex
Brouwer, G. J., & Heeger, D. J. (2011) · Journal of Neurophysiology · doi:10.1152/jn.00540.2011 · Cited by 222 · see citing works
Sensory uncertainty decoded from visual cortex predicts behavior
van Bergen, R. S., Ma, W. J., Pratte, M. S., & Jehee, J. F. M. (2015) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.4150 · Cited by 217 · see citing works
Self-citationResolution of Uncertainty in Prefrontal Cortex
Yoshida, W., & Ishii, S. (2006) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2006.05.006 · Cited by 196 · see citing works
The what, where and how of delay activity
Sreenivasan, K. K., & D’Esposito, M. (2019) · Nature reviews. Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/s41583-019-0176-7 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
Distinguishing the Roles of Dorsolateral and Anterior PFC in Visual Metacognition
Shekhar, M., & Rahnev, D. (2018) · The Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.3484-17.2018 · Cited by 154 · see citing works
Mamassian, P. (2016) · Annual Review of Vision Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-vision-111815-114630 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
Probabilistic Representation in Human Visual Cortex Reflects Uncertainty in Serial Decisions
van Bergen, R. S., & Jehee, J. F. M. (2019) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.3212-18.2019 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Self-citationA neural basis of probabilistic computation in visual cortex
Walker, E. Y., Cotton, R. J., Ma, W. J., & Tolias, A. S. (2019) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/s41593-019-0554-5 · Cited by 134 · see citing works
Humans incorporate attention-dependent uncertainty into perceptual decisions and confidence
Denison, R. N., Adler, W. T., Carrasco, M., & Ma, W. J. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1717720115 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Comparing Bayesian and non-Bayesian accounts of human confidence reports
Adler, W. T., & Ma, W. J. (2018) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006572 · Cited by 118 · cited 3× · see citing works
“Sensory measurements were randomly sampled from the generative model as described above (equations (8)–(11)), with a = 20, σ(2)n = 5, α = 10 and β = 1.”
BackgroundMethodBehavior- and Modality-General Representation of Confidence in Orbitofrontal Cortex
Masset, P., Ott, T., Lak, A., Hirokawa, J., & Kepecs, A. (2020) · Cell · doi:10.1016/j.cell.2020.05.022 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
Causal Evidence for Mnemonic Metacognition in Human Precuneus
Ye, Q., Zou, F., Lau, H. C., Hu, Y., & Kwok, S. C. (2018) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.0660-18.2018 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
A Mathematical Framework for Statistical Decision Confidence
Hangya, B., Sanders, J. I., & Kepecs, Á. (2016) · Neural Computation · doi:10.1162/neco_a_00864 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
The effects of delay duration on visual working memory for orientation
Shin, H., Zou, Q., & Ma, W. J. (2017) · Journal of Vision · doi:10.1167/17.14.10 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
The idiosyncratic nature of confidence
Navajas, J., Hindocha, C., Foda, H., Keramati, M., Latham, P., & Bahrami, B. (2017) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-017-0215-1 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Stolyarova, A., Rakhshan, M., Hart, E. E., O’Dell, T. J., Peters, M. A. K., Lau, H. C., Soltani, A., & Izquierdo, A. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12725-1 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Flexible mechanisms underlie the evaluation of visual confidence
Barthelmé, S., & Mamassian, P. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1007704107 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Joint representation of working memory and uncertainty in human cortex
Li, H.-H., Sprague, T. C., Yoo, A. H., Ma, W. J., & Curtis, C. E. (2021) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2021.08.022 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Learning optimal decisions with confidence
Drugowitsch, J., Mendonça, A. G., Mainen, Z. F., & Pouget, A. (2019) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1906787116 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Humans incorporate trial-to-trial working memory uncertainty into rewarded decisions
Honig, M., Ma, W. J., & Fougnie, D. L. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1918143117 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Private–public mappings in human prefrontal cortex
Bang, D., Ershadmanesh, S., Nili, H., & Fleming, S. M. (2020) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.56477 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Modeling correlated noise is necessary to decode uncertainty
van Bergen, R. S., & Jehee, J. F. M. (2017) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2017.08.015 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Self-citationDual strategies in human confidence judgments
Bertana, A., Четвериков, А. А., van Bergen, R. S., Ling, S., & Jehee, J. F. M. (2021) · Journal of Vision · doi:10.1167/jov.21.5.21 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
2 of the 77 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 4
- [17]Green DM Swets JA Signal detection theory and psychophysics Wiley 1966
- [59]Jenkinson M Beckmann CF Behrens TEJ Woolrich MW Smith SM FSL NeuroImage 2012 62 782 790 21979382
- [62]Hedges LV Olkin I Statistical methods for meta-analysis Academic Press 1985
- [63]Fieller EC Pearson ES Tests for Rank Correlation Coefficients: II Biometrika 1961 48 29
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis
Fleming, S. M. (2024) · Annual Review of Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev-psych-022423-032425 · Cited by 256 · see citing works
“Finally, in the study by Geurts et al. (2022) described above, the decoder’s readout of sensory uncertainty in early visual areas was correlated with univariate fMRI signals in the prefrontal cortex, consistent with domain-specific uncertainty estimates informing globally available estimates of…”
Precision and the Bayesian brain
Yon, D., & Frith, C. (2021) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/j.cub.2021.07.044 · Cited by 172 · see citing works
An insula hierarchical network architecture for active interoceptive inference
Fermin, A. S. R., Friston, K., & Yamawaki, S. (2022) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.220226 · Cited by 101 · see citing works
Confidence reflects a noisy decision reliability estimate
Boundy-Singer, Z. M., Ziemba, C. M., & Goris, R. L. T. (2022) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-022-01464-x · Cited by 71 · see citing works
The future of metacognition research: Balancing construct breadth with measurement rigor
Katyal, S., & Fleming, S. M. (2024) · Cortex · doi:10.1016/j.cortex.2023.11.002 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Studying the neural representations of uncertainty
Walker, E. Y., Pohl, S., Denison, R. N., Barack, D. L., Lee, J., Block, N., Ma, W. J., & Meyniel, F. (2023) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/s41593-023-01444-y · Cited by 56 · see citing works
On the varieties of conscious experiences: Altered Beliefs Under Psychedelics (ALBUS)
Safron, A., Juliani, A., Reggente, N., Klimaj, V., & Johnson, M. W. (2025) · Neuroscience of Consciousness · doi:10.1093/nc/niae038 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Social learning across adolescence: A Bayesian neurocognitive perspective
Hofmans, L., & van den Bos, W. (2022) · Developmental Cognitive Neuroscience · doi:10.1016/j.dcn.2022.101151 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Attractor dynamics reflect decision confidence in macaque prefrontal cortex
Wang, S., Falcone, R., Richmond, B. J., & Averbeck, B. B. (2023) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/s41593-023-01445-x · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Dou, W., Arango, L. J. M., Castaneda, O. G., Arellano, L., Mcintyre, E., Yballa, C., & Samaha, J. (2024) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/09567976241246561 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Separable neural signatures of confidence during perceptual decisions
Balsdon, T., Mamassian, P., & Wyart, V. (2021) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.68491 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Expectations about precision bias metacognition and awareness.
Olawole‐Scott, H., & Yon, D. (2023) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/xge0001371 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Metacognition and confidence: A review and synthesisPreprint
Fleming, S. M. (2023) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/ge7tz · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Confidence control for efficient behaviour in dynamic environments
Balsdon, T., & Philiastides, M. G. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-53312-3 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Pilipenko, A., & Samaha, J. (2024) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.1944-23.2024 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Ding, S., Pan, X., Hu, L., & Liu, L. (2025) · Computers & Industrial Engineering · doi:10.1016/j.cie.2025.110872 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Motion direction is represented as a bimodal probability distribution in the human visual cortex
Четвериков, А. А., & Jehee, J. F. M. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-43251-w · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationExpressions for Bayesian confidence of drift diffusion observers in fluctuating stimuli tasks
Calder-Travis, J., Bogacz, R., & Yeung, N. (2023) · Journal of Mathematical Psychology · doi:10.1101/2020.02.25.965384 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Neural basis of concurrent deliberation toward a choice and confidence judgment
Vivar-Lazo, M., & Fetsch, C. R. (2025) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/s41593-025-02116-9 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Cohanpour, M., Aly, M., & Gottlieb, J. P. (2024) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.0974-23.2024 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Balsdon, T., Pisauro, M. A., & Philiastides, M. G. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-49538-w · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Bayesian confidence in optimal decisionsPreprint
Calder-Travis, J. M., Charles, L., Bogacz, R., & Yeung, N. (2020) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/j8sxz · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Ecstatic or Mystical Experience through Epilepsy
Picard, F. (2023) · Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience · doi:10.1162/jocn_a_02031 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Prefrontal Cortex Codes Representations of Target Identity and Feature Uncertainty
Witkowski, P. P., & Geng, J. J. (2023) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.1117-23.2023 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Neural mechanisms of resource allocation in working memory
Li, H.-H., Sprague, T. C., Yoo, A. H., Ma, W. J., & Curtis, C. E. (2025) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adr8015 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Perception is rich and probabilistic
Jabar, S. B., & Fougnie, D. L. (2022) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-022-17458-8 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Automatic multisensory integration follows subjective confidence rather than objective performance
Gao, Y., Xue, K., Odegaard, B., & Rahnev, D. (2025) · Communications Psychology · doi:10.1038/s44271-025-00221-w · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Sensory population activity reveals downstream confidence computations in the primate visual system
Boundy-Singer, Z. M., Ziemba, C. M., & Goris, R. L. T. (2025) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2426441122 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
A characterization of the neural representation of confidence during probabilistic learning
Bounmy, T., Eger, E., & Meyniel, F. (2023) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2022.119849 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Fleming, S. M. (2023) · Journal of Consciousness Studies · doi:10.53765/20512201.30.9.113 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Nuiten, S. A., de Gee, J. W., Zantvoord, J. B., Fahrenfort, J. J., & van Gaal, S. (2024) · eNeuro · doi:10.1523/eneuro.0019-24.2024 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Neural Signatures of Evidence Accumulation Encode Subjective Perceptual ConfidencePreprint
Dou, W., Arango, L. J. M., Castaneda, O. G., Arellano, L., Mcintyre, E., Yballa, C., & Samaha, J. (2023) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2023.04.28.538782 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
A low-dimensional approximation of optimal confidence
Denmat, P. L., Verguts, T., & Desender, K. (2024) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012273 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Confidence and second-order errors in cortical circuits
Granier, A., Petrovici, M. A., Senn, W., & Wilmes, K. A. (2024) · PNAS Nexus · doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae404 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Broadscale dampening of uncertainty adjustment in the aging brain
Kosciessa, J. Q., Mayr, U., Lindenberger, U., & Garrett, D. D. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-55416-2 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Expressions for Bayesian confidence of drift diffusion observers in dynamic stimuli tasksPreprint
Calder-Travis, J. M., Bogacz, R., & Yeung, N. (2020) · doi:10.17605/osf.io/tk3vp · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Sánchez-Fuenzalida, N., van Gaal, S., Fleming, S. M., Haaf, J. M., & Fahrenfort, J. J. (2023) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/xa4fj · Cited by 9 · see citing works
The energy metabolic footprint of predictive processing in the human brainPreprint
Hechler, A., de Lange, F. P., & Riedl, V. (2023) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2023.12.08.570804 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Zhan, B., Chen, Y., Wang, R., & Jiang, Y. (2024) · iScience · doi:10.1016/j.isci.2024.111716 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Sánchez-Fuenzalida, N., van Gaal, S., Fleming, S. M., Haaf, J. M., & Fahrenfort, J. J. (2025) · Communications Psychology · doi:10.1038/s44271-025-00257-y · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Theta Activity Supports Landmark-Based Correction of Naturalistic Human Path Integration
Naveilhan, C., Zory, R., Gramann, K., & Ramanoël, S. (2025) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.1005-25.2025 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Large-scale mega-analysis indicates that serial dependence deteriorates perceptual decision-making
Ozkirli, A., Четвериков, А. А., & Pascucci, D. (2025) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-025-02362-8 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
The neural basis for uncertainty processing in hierarchical decision making
Wang, M. B., Lynch, N., & Halassa, M. M. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-63994-y · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Shared and Diverging Neural Dynamics Underlying False and Veridical Perception
Haarsma, J., Hetenyi, D., & Kok, P. (2025) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.1479-24.2025 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Miyoshi, K., Webb, T. W., Rahnev, D., & Lau, H. C. (2023) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-820480-1.00049-8 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Decision-Making under UncertaintyPreprint
Bruckner, R., & Nassar, M. R. (2024) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/ce8jf · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Zhu, B., Jia, S., Zhao, J., Han, J., Song, D., Chen, Z., Zhang, P., & Du, J. (2025) · Advanced Engineering Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.aei.2025.104239 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Ding, S. Z., Pan, X., Hu, L., & Qu, Q. (2026) · International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics · doi:10.1016/j.ergon.2026.103932 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Krasnoff, J., & Souza, A. S. (2024) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/s13421-023-01514-3 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Pupil-Linked Arousal Modulates Precision of Stimulus Representation in Cortex
Geurts, L. S., Ling, S., & Jehee, J. F. M. (2024) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.1522-23.2024 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Self-citationQu, H., Wang, J., Shirley, D. J., Gemmell, H. M., Christensen, D., Orlando, A., Romero, R. A. A., Zielinski, B. A., & Wang, Z. (2025) · Autism Research · doi:10.1002/aur.70024 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Shin, S., Oh, J., Kim, S. K., Lee, Y., & Kim, S. J. (2025) · Experimental & Molecular Medicine · doi:10.1038/s12276-025-01456-7 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Uncertain perceptual confidence
Mamassian, P. (2022) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-021-01248-9 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Computational and Neuronal Basis of Visual Confidence
Goris, R. L. T., Fu, Z., & Fetsch, C. R. (2025) · Annual Review of Vision Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-vision-110323-120909 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Ning, C., Fu, G., Zhang, Y.-Y., Meyniel, F., & Wang, L. (2026) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2025.11.014 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Metacognitive evaluation of postdecisional perceptual representations
Balsdon, T., Wyart, V., & Mamassian, P. (2024) · Journal of Vision · doi:10.1167/jov.24.4.2 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Metacognitive Introspection Alters the Dynamics of Pre-Decisional Neural Evidence AccumulationPreprint
Dou, W., Afrakhteh, S., & Samaha, J. (2024) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2024.11.26.625501 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Krasnoff, J., & Oberauer, K. (2022) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Learning Memory and Cognition · doi:10.1037/xlm0001211 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
A retinotopic reference frame for space throughout human visual cortexPreprint
Szinte, M., de Hollander, G., Aqil, M., Veríssimo, I., Dumoulin, S. O., & Knapen, T. H. J. (2024) · eLife · doi:10.1101/2024.02.05.578862 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Distinct forms of uncertainty guide information seeking and subjective confidencePreprint
Edwards-Lowe, G., Chiusa, E. L., Olawole‐Scott, H., & Yon, D. (2024) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/cf4a7 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Perceptual and attentional uncertainty impact global performance monitoring
Chancel, M., Filevich, E., & Faivre, N. (2025) · Neuroscience of Consciousness · doi:10.1093/nc/niaf041 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Developmental differences in social information use under uncertainty: A neurocomputational approach
Hofmans, L., & van den Bos, W. (2025) · Developmental Cognitive Neuroscience · doi:10.1016/j.dcn.2025.101604 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Neural correlates of Bayesian social belief updating in the medial prefrontal cortex
Hofmans, L., & van den Bos, W. (2025) · Cerebral Cortex · doi:10.1093/cercor/bhaf251 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Probabilistic processing: Possible, probable, or preposterous? A dialectical essay
Loued‐Khenissi, L., & Pascucci, D. (2025) · New Ideas in Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.newideapsych.2025.101212 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Sung, Y., Rigotti, M., & Lee, S. W. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-66677-w · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Altered uncertainty processing during adaptive learning in internet gaming disorder
Pang, Y.-X., Zhang, L., Yao, Y.-W., Potenza, M. N., & Liu, L. (2025) · Computers in Human Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.chb.2025.108882 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Towards an integrative neuroscience of metacognition
Fleming, S. M. (2026) · Nature reviews. Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/s41583-026-01081-x · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Awareness of the relative quality of spatial working memory representations
Li, A. Y., & Sprague, T. C. (2023) · Attention Perception & Psychophysics · doi:10.3758/s13414-022-02646-5 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Insights from Ecstatic Epilepsy: From Uncertainty to Metacognitive Feelings
Sooter, N. M., Seragnoli, F., & Picard, F. (2024) · Current topics in behavioral neurosciences · doi:10.1007/7854_2024_528 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Efficient coding explains neural response homeostasis and stimulus-specific adaptationPreprint
Young, E. J., & Ahmadian, Y. (2023) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2023.10.29.564616 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Decision-making under uncertainty
Bruckner, R., & Nassar, M. R. (2024) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-820480-1.00098-x · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Awareness of the Relative Quality of Spatial Working Memory Representations
li, Y., & Sprague, T. C. (2022) · Journal of Vision · doi:10.1167/jov.22.14.3367
Dynamic reduction of neural uncertainty regulates perceptual decisions in a Bayes-optimal mannerPreprint
Rangelov, D., Bitzer, S., & Mattingley, J. B. (2023) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3409042/v1
Confidence and metacognitionPreprint
Miyoshi, K., Webb, T. W., Rahnev, D., & Lau, H. C. (2024) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/y3drq
Seeing in crowds: Averaging first, then max
Lu, X., Jiang, R., Song, M., Wu, Y.-T., Ge, Y., & Chen, N. (2024) · Psychonomic Bulletin & Review · doi:10.3758/s13423-024-02468-6
Exogenous and Endogenous Sources of Uncertainty Inform Global Performance MonitoringPreprint
Chancel, M., Filevich, E., & Faivre, N. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4784806
Green, M. L., & Pratte, M. S. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4820539
Thermoethics: morality through the lens of neurophysiologyPreprint
Tjøstheim, T. A., & Stenseke, J. (2024) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/ksje5
Dissociation of movement and outcome representations in metacognition of agencyPreprint
Charalampaki, A., Maurer, H., Maurer, L. K., Müller, H., & Filevich, E. (2024) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2024.10.14.618169
Efficient coding explains neural response homeostasis and stimulus-specific adaptationPreprint
Young, E. J., & Ahmadian, Y. (2025) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.104746.1
Efficient coding explains neural response homeostasis and stimulus-specific adaptationPreprint
Young, E. J., & Ahmadian, Y. (2025) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.104746
Predictive processing for sensory and action neural representationsPreprint
Iwama, G. Y., Breska, A., & Helfrich, R. F. (2025) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2025.03.26.645167
Behavioral and Neurobiological Foundations of Judgment Under Uncertainty
Wang, M.-C., & Wu, S. (2025) · Chinese language learning sciences · doi:10.1007/978-981-96-6669-0_13
Spontaneous emergence of metacognition in neuronal computation
Ma, H., Lu, W., & Feng, J. (2025) · Physical Review Research · doi:10.1103/f1hv-bf1f
Confidence judgements from fused multisensory perceptsPreprint
Domenici, N., & Mamassian, P. (2025) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2025.09.05.674507
Efficient coding explains neural response homeostasis and stimulus-specific adaptationPreprint
Young, E. J., & Ahmadian, Y. (2025) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.104746.2
Green, M. L., & Pratte, M. S. (2025) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2025.106347
Multiple Routes to Metacognitive Judgments of Working Memory in the Macaque Prefrontal CortexPreprint
Ning, C., Fu, G., Zhang, Y., Meyniel, F., & Wang, L. (2025) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2025.07.15.664842
Orthogonal representational geometry in dACC underpins human hierarchical reasoning
Xu, C., Mei, N., Dong, W., Hu, R., Verguts, T., & Chen, Q. (2026) · Cell Reports · doi:10.1016/j.celrep.2026.117929
Fahrenfort, J. J., & Sánchez-Fuenzalida, N. (2025) · OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) · doi:10.17605/osf.io/h3uj5
Bayesian surprise tracks the strength of perceptual insightPreprint
Völler, J., Domingo, J. L., & González‐García, C. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.02.26.708200
Dissociating accuracy and metacognition in nutritional judgements
Hoogervorst, K., Bavato, F., Tyrer, A., & Allen, M. (2026) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2026.106744
Meyer, N. (2026) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm15062262
Brissenden, J. A., Vesia, M., & Lee, T. G. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.05.14.724968
Bayesian efficient coding as a theory of perception: progress, controversies, and prospects
Tomić, I., Lengyel, M., & Bays, P. M. (2026) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.tics.2026.05.001
Remembering What We Did: Confidence Tracks the Distinctiveness of Action RepresentationsPreprint
Domagala, W., Armstrong, M. J., O’Neill, K. J., Yon, D., & Seghezzi, S. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.7168947
Recent history attracts and repels perceptual decisions depending on surprisePreprint
Kaltenmaier, A., & Press, C. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.06.25.734467
- Authors
- Geurts, L. S., Cooke, J. R. H., van Bergen, R. S., & Jehee, J. F. M.
- Affiliations
- Radboud University Nijmegen (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Jehee, Janneke F. M.
- Venue
- Nature Human Behaviour
- Published
- 2022-01-20
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 294-305
- ISSN
- 2397-3374 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7612428
- OpenAlex
- W4220816838
- Cited by
- 104
- References
- 77
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 31 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 2
- FWCI
- 10.96
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2022-03-09)
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Human Behaviour (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Radboud Repository (Radboud University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Visual perception and processing mechanisms
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
- Keywords
- subjective confidence, Bayesian probability, neural population activity, visual cortex, insula, anterior cingulate cortex, prefrontal cortex, confidence model, decision-making
- MeSH terms
- Bayes Theorem, Cerebral Cortex, Humans, Probability, Visual Cortex, Visual Perception
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
