Confidence Predictions Affect Performance Confidence and Neural Preparation in Perceptual Decision Making
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Abstract
Decisions are usually accompanied by a feeling of being wrong or right – a subjective confidence estimate. But what information is this confidence estimate based on, and what is confidence used for? To answer these questions, research has largely focused on confidence regarding current or past decisions, for example identifying how characteristics of the stimulus affect confidence, how confidence can be used as an internally generated feedback signal, and how communicating confidence can affect group decisions. Here, we report two studies which implemented a novel metacognitive measure: predictions of confidence for future perceptual decisions. Using computational modeling of behaviour and EEG, we established that experience-based confidence predictions are one source of information that affects how confident we are in future decision-making, and that learned confidence-expectations affect neural preparation for future decisions. Results from both studies show that participants develop precise confidence predictions informed by past confidence experience. Notably, our results also show that confidence predictions affect performance confidence rated after a decision is made; this finding supports the proposal that confidence judgments are based on multiple sources of information, including expectations. We found strong support for this link in neural correlates of stimulus preparation and processing. EEG measures of preparatory neural activity (contingent negative variation; CNV) and evidence accumulation (centro-parietal positivity; CPP) show that predicted confidence affects neural preparation for stimulus processing, supporting the proposal that one purpose of confidence judgments may be to learn about performance for future encounters and prepare accordingly.
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Global confidence can be considered a higher-order prior on estimates of local propositional confidence, naturally modeled as a probability distribution over expected success.
“One fruitful approach considers global confidence as a higher-order prior on estimates of (local) propositional confidence (Boldt et al. 2019, Marcke et al. 2022), which can be naturally modeled as a probability distribution over expected success (Rouault et al. 2019).”
From Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis (2024) · cites this paper as Boldt et al. 2019
The Introduction (page unavailable) proposes that predicted confidence acts as a prior for confidence reported after a perceptual decision, and the Discussion describes experience-based confidence as a prior belief. But the paper’s own results concern stimulus-category-specific predictions, not a general global-confidence prior; it also leaves mathematical formalization for future work. The probability-distribution clause is attributed to Rouault et al., not Boldt et al., and is not assessed here. (LLM, conf=0.82)
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- Authors
- Boldt, A., Schiffer, A.-M., Waszak, F., & Yeung, N.
- Affiliations
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Corresponding author
- Boldt, Annika
- Venue
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2019-03-11
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 4031-4031
- ISSN
- 2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6411854
- OpenAlex
- W2746267321
- Cited by
- 86
- References
- 60
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 5
- FWCI
- 5.96
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- RCUK | Economic and Social Research Council (ES/J500112/1)
- RCUK | Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BB/I019847/1)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Visual perception and processing mechanisms
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Keywords
- confidence estimation, metacognition, perceptual decision making, performance confidence, contingent negative variation, evidence accumulation, EEG
- MeSH terms
- Metacognition, Decision Making, Electroencephalography, Emotions, Humans, Judgment
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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