The impact of evidence reliability on sensitivity and bias in decision confidence.
Open accessAbstract
Human observers effortlessly and accurately judge their probability of being correct in their decisions, suggesting that metacognitive evaluation is an integral part of decision making. It remains a challenge for most models of confidence, however, to explain how metacognitive judgments are formed and which internal signals influence them. While the decision-making literature has suggested that confidence is based on privileged access to the evidence that gives rise to the decision itself, other lines of research on confidence have commonly taken the view of a multicue model of confidence. The present study aims at manipulating one such cue: the perceived reliability of evidence supporting an initial decision. Participants made a categorical judgment of the average color of an array of eight colored shapes, for which we critically manipulated both the distance of the mean color from the category boundary (evidence strength) and the variability of colors across the eight shapes (evidence reliability). Our results indicate that evidence reliability has a stronger impact on confidence than evidence strength. Specifically, we found that evidence reliability affects metacognitive readout, the mapping from subjectively experienced certainty to expressed confidence, allowing participants to adequately adjust their confidence ratings to match changes in objective task performance across conditions. (PsycINFO Database Record
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Confidence judgments are sensitive to the variability in perceptual evidence, although sometimes to a greater or lesser degree than predicted by an ideal observer model.
“A number of studies have presented evidence that confidence judgments are sensitive to the variability in perceptual evidence, although sometimes to a greater or lesser degree than predicted by an ideal observer model (Boldt et al. 2017, Spence et al. 2016, Zylberberg et al. 2014).”
From Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis (2024) · cites this paper as Boldt et al. 2017
The Results (Effects of Evidence Mean and Variance on Confidence; page unavailable) show that higher stimulus variance lowered confidence, even in conditions matched for task difficulty. They also report a difference from the normative expectation based on accuracy, but our copy does not compare the size of the variance effect with predictions from an ideal-observer model. (LLM, conf=0.82)
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Boldt, A., de Gardelle, V., & Yeung, N.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Boldt, Annika
- Venue
- Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance
- Published
- 2017-08
- Volume
- 43
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 1520-1531
- ISSN
- 0096-1523 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1277
- PMC
- PMC5524444
- OpenAlex
- W2605154204
- Cited by
- 110
- References
- 71
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 4
- FWCI
- 5.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Experimental Psychology Human Perception & Performance (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Economic and Social Research Council
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Visual perception and processing mechanisms
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory Processes and Influences
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Keywords
- metacognition, decision confidence, reliability of evidence, quality of evidence, confidence bias, categorical judgment, variability, confidence calibration
- MeSH terms
- Metacognition, Adolescent, Adult, Color Perception, Decision Making, Female, Humans, Judgment, Male, Young Adult
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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