Pioglitazone after Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Patients with ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) are at increased risk for future cardiovascular events despite current preventive therapies. The identification of insulin resistance as a risk factor for stroke and myocardial infarction raised the possibility that pioglitazone, which improves insulin sensitivity, might benefit patients with cerebrovascular disease. METHODS: In this multicenter, double-blind trial, we randomly assigned 3876 patients who had had a recent ischemic stroke or TIA to receive either pioglitazone (target dose, 45 mg daily) or placebo. Eligible patients did not have diabetes but were found to have insulin resistance on the basis of a score of more than 3.0 on the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) index. The primary outcome was fatal or nonfatal stroke or myocardial infarction. RESULTS: By 4.8 years, a primary outcome had occurred in 175 of 1939 patients (9.0%) in the pioglitazone group and in 228 of 1937 (11.8%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio in the pioglitazone group, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62 to 0.93; P=0.007). Diabetes developed in 73 patients (3.8%) and 149 patients (7.7%), respectively (hazard ratio, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.69; P<0.001). There was no significant between-group difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.17; P=0.52). Pioglitazone was associated with a greater frequency of weight gain exceeding 4.5 kg than was placebo (52.2% vs. 33.7%, P<0.001), edema (35.6% vs. 24.9%, P<0.001), and bone fracture requiring surgery or hospitalization (5.1% vs. 3.2%, P=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: In this trial involving patients without diabetes who had insulin resistance along with a recent history of ischemic stroke or TIA, the risk of stroke or myocardial infarction was lower among patients who received pioglitazone than among those who received placebo. Pioglitazone was also associated with a lower risk of diabetes but with higher risks of weight gain, edema, and fracture. (Funded by the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00091949.).
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17 of 45 cited sources checked · 11 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Findingown data
In ancillary analyses using updated stroke and MI definitions, the effect of pioglitazone on the primary outcome was similar, with a hazard ratio of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.60 to 0.88).
“In ancillary analyses, the effect of pioglitazone on the primary outcome was similar when stroke and myocardial infarction were defined according to updated criteria28,29 (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.88).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked - Premisecitation
The higher vascular risk linked to insulin resistance may be mediated by associated hypertension, hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia, dyslipidemia, endothelial dysfunction, hypercoagulability, inflammation, and increased platelet reactivity.
“The presence of insulin resistance increases the risk of vascular disease, possibly because of associated hypertension, hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia, dyslipidemia, endothelial dysfunction, hypercoagulability, inflammation, and increased platelet reactivity.7–9”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked- cites [7] source
The opening section links insulin resistance to increased cardiovascular mortality and endothelial dysfunction. Figure 1 describes a possible prothrombotic pathway, and the main text associates inflammation with vascular dysfunction. The paper does not support the full proposed list of mediators: it does not identify hypertension, hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia, dyslipidemia, or increased platelet reactivity as explanations for the higher vascular risk. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [8] source
The Abstract (page unavailable) associates insulin resistance with vascular disease and describes dyslipidemia and other metabolic abnormalities as part of a proatherogenic milieu. The “Hyperglycemia and hypertension” section (page unavailable) discusses elevated glucose and compensatory hyperinsulinemia, while noting that the relationship with hypertension is less clear. Our copy does not support the full proposed list of mediators, particularly hypercoagulability and increased platelet reactivity. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [9] source
- Premisecitation
Insulin sensitivity may be transiently impaired after a stroke.
“Because insulin sensitivity may be transiently impaired after a stroke,21 the screening blood test was conducted at least 14 days after the index event.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [21] source
- Premisecitation
Insulin resistance raises the risk of vascular disease.
“The presence of insulin resistance increases the risk of vascular disease, possibly because of associated hypertension, hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia, dyslipidemia, endothelial dysfunction, hypercoagulability, inflammation, and increased platelet reactivity.7–9”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked - Findingown data
The diabetes finding was unchanged when a glycated hemoglobin cutoff of 6.5% or more was used, with a hazard ratio of 0.49 (95% CI, 0.38 to 0.64).
“The finding for diabetes was also unchanged when a cutoff for glycated hemoglobin of 6.5% or more was used in local analysis, consistent with the 2010 ADA recommendation30 (hazard ratio, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.64).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [30] source
- Premisecitation
More recent studies showed no significant association between pioglitazone and bladder cancer for any dose or duration.
“However, more recent studies48,49 showed no significant association for any dose or duration of therapy.49”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites [48] source
The Results (p. 5) report no significant association with cumulative exposure, and the duration categories of 1–2 and more than 2 years also have confidence intervals spanning 1. The paper does not report a dose-specific analysis, so it does not support the claim’s “any dose” wording. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [49] source
- Premisecitation
These actions modulate transcription of genes with favorable effects on insulin sensitivity, fat distribution, plasma glucose, lipid and protein metabolism, vascular endothelial function, and inflammation.
“These actions modulate the transcription of genes with favorable effects on insulin sensitivity,13,36 fat distribution,37 plasma glucose,35,38 lipid and protein metabolism,36,38 vascular endothelial function,39 and inflammation.35,40”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 4 sources checked - Premisecitation
In the BARI-2D trial, the primary outcome of death, stroke, or MI was not significantly lower with rosiglitazone and metformin than with insulin and sulfonylurea.
“In the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI-2D) trial,31 the rate of primary outcome of death, stroke, or myocardial infarction was not significantly lower among patients receiving rosiglitazone and metformin (insulin-sparing strategy) than among those receiving insulin and sulfonylurea therapy (insulin-providing strategy).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [31] source
The Results (Primary and Principal Secondary Outcomes; page unavailable) report no significant difference in major cardiovascular events between the insulin-sensitization and insulin-provision groups (P=0.13). But the Methods (Evaluation of Outcomes; page unavailable) define death, myocardial infarction, or stroke as the principal secondary end point, not the primary end point, which was death from any cause. The Methods (Treatment Strategies; page unavailable) also describe randomized treatment strategies that allowed drugs from the other strategy, rather than a direct comparison of the named drug combinations. (LLM, conf=0.92)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Findingown data
The primary composite outcome of fatal or nonfatal stroke or MI occurred in 175 of 1939 pioglitazone patients (9.0%) and 228 of 1937 placebo patients (11.8%), with a hazard ratio of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.62 to 0.93; P=0.007).
“By 4.8 years, a primary outcome had occurred in 175 of 1939 patients (9.0%) in the pioglitazone group and in 228 of 1937 (11.8%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio in the pioglitazone group, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62 to 0.93; P = 0.007).”
- Also stated in: § CLINICAL OUTCOMES · plain
“The primary outcome of stroke or myocardial infarction occurred in 175 of 1939 patients (9.0%) in the pioglitazone group and in 228 of 1937 (11.8%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio in the pioglitazone group, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62 to 0.93; P = 0.007) (Table 2 and Fig. 1, and Table S5 in the Supplementary Appendix).”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
“In this trial involving patients without diabetes who had a recent history of ischemic stroke or TIA and who had insulin resistance, the rate of the primary outcome was lower among patients who received pioglitazone than among those who received placebo.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § CLINICAL OUTCOMES · plain
- Findingown data
Pioglitazone had no significant effect on cognition compared with placebo; the overall between-group difference in change from baseline in least-squares mean 3MSE score was −0.02 (95% CI, −0.33 to 0.28; P=0.88).
“Pioglitazone had no significant effect on cognition, as compared with placebo. The overall between-group difference in the change from baseline in the least-squares mean score on the Modified Mini–Mental State Examination was −0.02 (95% CI, −0.33 to 0.28; P = 0.88).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Progression to diabetes was significantly less frequent with pioglitazone than with placebo, with a hazard ratio of 0.48 (95% CI, 0.33 to 0.69; P<0.001).
“Diabetes developed in 73 patients (3.8%) and 149 patients (7.7%), respectively (hazard ratio, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.69; P<0.001).”
- Also stated in: § CLINICAL OUTCOMES · plain
“Among the secondary outcomes, the rate of progression to diabetes was significantly lower in the pioglitazone group than in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.69; P<0.001) (Table 2).”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
“The incidence of a new diagnosis of diabetes was also lower with pioglitazone.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § CLINICAL OUTCOMES · plain
- Findingown data
No significant differences were found in any of the prespecified subgroups.
“There were no significant differences in any of the prespecified subgroups (Fig. 2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
HDL and LDL cholesterol levels were higher in the pioglitazone group than in the placebo group.
“Levels of both high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol were higher in the pioglitazone group than in the placebo group (Fig. S2 in the Supplementary Appendix).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The largest between-group difference in weight change occurred at year 4, with a mean gain of 2.6 kg in the pioglitazone group versus a mean loss of 0.5 kg in the placebo group (P<0.001).
“The maximum between-group difference in weight change was observed at year 4 (mean weight gain of 2.6 kg in the pioglitazone group vs. mean weight loss of 0.5 kg in the placebo group, P<0.001).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Serious bone fracture requiring hospitalization or surgery was reported in 99 pioglitazone patients and 62 placebo patients (5.1% vs 3.2%, P=0.003).
“Pioglitazone was associated with a greater frequency of weight gain exceeding 4.5 kg than was placebo (52.2% vs. 33.7%, P<0.001), edema (35.6% vs. 24.9%, P<0.001), and bone fracture requiring surgery or hospitalization (5.1% vs. 3.2%, P = 0.003).”
- Also stated in: § SAFETY OUTCOMES · plain
“The rates of edema were higher in the pioglitazone group than in the placebo group (35.6% vs. 24.9%, P<0.001), as were rates of serious bone fracture (i.e., requiring hospitalization or surgery), which were reported in 99 patients and 62 patients, respectively (5.1% vs. 3.2%, P=0.003).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § SAFETY OUTCOMES · plain
- Findingown data
Incident bladder cancer occurred in 12 pioglitazone patients and 8 placebo patients (P=0.37).
“Incident bladder cancer occurred in 12 patients in the pioglitazone group and in 8 in the placebo group (P = 0.37).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Edema occurred more often with pioglitazone than with placebo (35.6% vs 24.9%, P<0.001).
“Pioglitazone was associated with a greater frequency of weight gain exceeding 4.5 kg than was placebo (52.2% vs. 33.7%, P<0.001), edema (35.6% vs. 24.9%, P<0.001), and bone fracture requiring surgery or hospitalization (5.1% vs. 3.2%, P = 0.003).”
- Also stated in: § SAFETY OUTCOMES · plain
“The rates of edema were higher in the pioglitazone group than in the placebo group (35.6% vs. 24.9%, P<0.001), as were rates of serious bone fracture (i.e., requiring hospitalization or surgery), which were reported in 99 patients and 62 patients, respectively (5.1% vs. 3.2%, P=0.003).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Also stated in: § SAFETY OUTCOMES · plain
- Findingown data
Total cancer incidence did not differ significantly between groups (133 vs 150, P=0.29).
“The total incidence of cancer did not differ significantly between the two groups (133 patients and 150 patients, respectively; P = 0.29).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
In the PROactive trial, the primary composite outcome was not significantly lower with pioglitazone than with placebo.
“In the Prospective Pioglitazone Clinical Trial in Macrovascular Events (PROactive) trial,15,16 the rate of primary outcome of death, myocardial infarction, stroke, acute coronary syndrome, vascular surgery, or amputation was not significantly lower among patients in the pioglitazone group than among those in the placebo group.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Premisecitation
The HOMA-IR threshold of 3.0 was chosen because it identifies the highest quartile among populations without diabetes.
“The index threshold of 3.0 was chosen because it identifies the highest quartile among populations without diabetes.19,20”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Study design and conductown data
The primary outcome result remained unchanged after adjustment for covariates.
“This finding did not change after adjustment for covariates.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
People who have had an ischemic stroke or TIA remain at elevated risk of later cardiovascular events even with current preventive treatments.
“Patients with ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) are at increased risk for future cardiovascular events despite current preventive therapies.”
- Also stated in: § CONCLUSIONS · plain
“Affected patients are at increased risk for future cardiovascular events,3,4 and prevention of these adverse outcomes is a major goal in their care.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Also stated in: § CONCLUSIONS · plain
- Premisecitation
Treating insulin resistance is a possible new preventive approach that could be added to standard care after ischemic stroke or TIA.
“Treatment of insulin resistance represents a potential new preventive strategy that could be added to standard care after ischemic stroke or TIA.5”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [5] source
- Study design and conductown data
The two groups had similar adherence to recommended secondary prevention practices.
“Patients in the two groups had similar rates of adherence to recommended practices for secondary prevention (Table S3 in the Supplementary Appendix).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductown data
The two study groups had similar baseline characteristics.
“The two study groups had similar characteristics at baseline (Table 1, and Table S1 in the Supplementary Appendix).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Pioglitazone may lower the risk of cardiovascular events, including stroke, in patients with type 2 diabetes.
“One medication in this class, pioglitazone, may reduce the risk of cardiovascular events, including stroke, in patients with type 2 diabetes, for whom the drug is currently approved as a glucose-lowering agent.15,16”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Interpretationown data
The findings suggest that giving pioglitazone to 100 patients similar to those in the trial for about 5 years could prevent 3 patients from having a stroke or MI.
“The findings suggest that the administration of pioglitazone in 100 patients similar to those in our trial for about 5 years could prevent 3 patients from having a stroke or myocardial infarction.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
During the same period, treatment would be expected to cause bone fractures requiring surgery or hospitalization in 2 patients.
“However, during the same period, the treatment would be expected to result in bone fractures requiring surgery or hospitalization in 2 patients.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Pioglitazone, a therapy aimed at improving insulin sensitivity, can prevent cardiovascular events in patients with insulin resistance and cerebrovascular disease.
“In conclusion, we found that pioglitazone, a therapy directed at improving insulin sensitivity, can prevent cardiovascular events among patients who have insulin resistance along with cerebrovascular disease.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Improved insulin sensitivity may be central to pioglitazone's benefit.
“The enhancement of insulin sensitivity may be central to the benefit of pioglitazone.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Pioglitazone has been associated with an increased risk of bone fracture.
“Pioglitazone has been associated with an increased risk of bone fracture.43”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [43] source
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 27
- May combine two claims. 21
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationThe trial was international, double-blind, and placebo-controlled.
“The design of this international, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial has been reported previously.17”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [17] source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationThiazolidinedione PPAR-γ agonists are among the most potent insulin-sensitizing drugs available.
“The thiazolidinedione class of peroxisome proliferator–activated receptor γ (PPAR-γ) agonists are among the most potent insulin-sensitizing drugs available.14”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [14] source
The Discussion (page not specified) reports that troglitazone increased insulin-mediated peripheral glucose disposal substantially more than metformin in a small group of patients with type II diabetes. It does not establish that thiazolidinediones as a class are among the most potent insulin-sensitizing drugs available or discuss their PPAR-γ mechanism. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationObservational research in 2011 and 2012 suggested that pioglitazone may increase the risk of bladder cancer.
“Observational research conducted in 2011 and 2012 suggested that pioglitazone may increase the risk of bladder cancer.46,47”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationThe IRIS results agree with a secondary outcome in PROactive, where death, MI, or stroke was significantly lower with pioglitazone, and with trials showing a favorable effect of pioglitazone on subclinical atherosclerosis progression.
“However, the IRIS results are consistent with findings regarding a secondary outcome in the PROactive trial (i.e., that the rates of death, myocardial infarction, or stroke were significantly lower with pioglitazone than with placebo) and with findings of trials showing a favorable effect of pioglitazone on the progression of subclinical atherosclerosis among patients with and those without”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked- cites [32] source
- cites [33] source
- cites [34] source
The Discussion reports a reduction in PROactive’s secondary composite cardiovascular endpoint and describes slower atherosclerosis progression with pioglitazone in trials involving people with and without type 2 diabetes. It does not specify that PROactive’s secondary endpoint comprised death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, so that detail cannot be verified from this paper. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationOther research suggests that PPAR-γ agonists might prevent certain cancers.
“Other research suggests that PPAR-γ agonists might prevent certain cancers.50,51”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checkedClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
PremisecitationHOMA-IR was selected because it is easy to perform and closely correlated with more definitive but complex tests.
“We selected this measurement because it is easy to perform and is closely correlated with more definitive but complex tests.20,52”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checkedProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingown dataA total of 3895 patients were enrolled, and 67% came from US sites.
“A total of 3895 patients were enrolled, with 67% from sites in the United States (Fig. S1 in the Supplementary Appendix).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataBy 2010 ADA criteria, diabetes was present in 116 of 1939 pioglitazone patients (6.0%) and 129 of 1937 placebo patients (6.7%).
“According to the 2010 criteria of the ADA (which include a glycated hemoglobin level of ≥6.5% as diagnostic of diabetes), diabetes was present in 116 of 1939 patients (6.0%) in the pioglitazone group and in 129 of 1937 (6.7%) in the placebo group (Table S2 in the Supplementary Appendix).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAfter 1 year, HOMA-IR index and C-reactive protein levels were lower in the pioglitazone group than in the placebo group.
“After 1 year, the HOMA-IR index and C-reactive protein level were lower in the pioglitazone group than in the placebo group (Table S6 in the Supplementary Appendix).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataPatients in the pioglitazone group had more weight gain, edema, shortness of breath, and bone fractures than those in the placebo group.
“Patients in the pioglitazone group had more weight gain, edema, shortness of breath, and bone fractures than did patients in the placebo group (Table 3, and Table S7 in the Supplementary Appendix).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataDuring the trial, fasting glucose, fasting triglycerides, and systolic blood pressure were lower in the pioglitazone group, and diastolic blood pressure was lower in years 1 to 4.
“During the trial, levels of fasting glucose, fasting triglycerides, and systolic blood pressure were also lower in the pioglitazone group, as was diastolic blood pressure in years 1 to 4.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThere was no significant between-group difference in other monitored adverse events, except that alanine aminotransferase change was more favorable with pioglitazone.
“There was no significant between-group difference in the incidence of other monitored adverse events, with the exception of a change in the alanine aminotransferase level, which was more favorable with pioglitazone.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn the pioglitazone group, 52.2% gained more than 4.5 kg and 11.4% gained more than 13.6 kg; the corresponding placebo percentages were 33.7% and 4.5%.
“Among the patients in the pioglitazone group, 52.2% gained more than 4.5 kg and 11.4% gained more than 13.6 kg; the corresponding percentages in the placebo group were 33.7% and 4.5%.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductown dataIndependent committees adjudicated all outcomes and selected safety events while blinded.
“All outcomes and selected safety events (i.e., bone fracture, macular edema, and cancer) were adjudicated by the members of independent committees in a blinded fashion.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataThe primary outcome P value was adjusted for interim monitoring, and the five prespecified time-to-event secondary outcome P values were adjusted for multiple testing with the Hochberg procedure and a family-wise error rate of 0.05.
“The P value for the primary outcome was adjusted for interim monitoring with the use of East software, version 6.3 (Cytel), and the P values for the five prespecified time-to-event secondary outcomes were adjusted for multiple testing with the Hochberg procedure and a family-wise error rate of 0.05.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataAdherence to the study drug was lower in the pioglitazone group than in the placebo group; at exit, 60% of pioglitazone patients and 67% of placebo patients were still taking their assigned drug.
“Patients in the pioglitazone group had lower adherence to the drug regimen than did those in the placebo group (Table S4 in the Supplementary Appendix); at the exit visit, 60% of the patients in the pioglitazone group were still taking pioglitazone and 67% in the placebo group were still taking placebo.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenNo outcomes other than those specified were prespecified.
“No other outcomes were prespecified.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningThe 19 patients at that site were removed, leaving a final cohort of 3876 patients: 1939 in the pioglitazone group and 1937 in the placebo group.
“The 19 patients at this site were removed from the study, resulting in a final cohort of 3876 patients (1939 in the pioglitazone group and 1937 in the placebo group).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenAll patients gave written informed consent.
“All the patients provided written informed consent.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenAll analyses followed an intention-to-treat approach.
“All analyses were performed on an intention-to-treat basis.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe local ethics committee at each site approved trial operations.
“Trial operations were approved by the local ethics committee at each site.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductown dataEnrolling 3136 patients would give 90% power to detect a 4-year cumulative stroke or MI rate 20% lower with pioglitazone than placebo, assuming a two-sided type I error of 0.05 and a 27% placebo outcome rate.
“We determined that enrollment of 3136 patients would provide a power of 90% to detect a 4-year cumulative rate of stroke or myocardial infarction that was 20% lower in the pioglitazone group than in the placebo group, assuming a two-sided type I error of 0.05 and a 27% outcome rate in the placebo group.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataBaseline features were similar between the two groups among patients lost to follow-up.
“Baseline features were similar for patients who were lost to follow-up in the two groups.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningTakeda representatives had no role in developing the protocol, conducting the trial, interpreting data, or preparing the manuscript.
“Representatives of Takeda were provided with a copy of the protocol (available at NEJM.org) and manuscript but had no role in the development of the protocol, the conduct of the trial, the interpretation of the data, or the preparation of the manuscript.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductown dataEligible patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to pioglitazone or matching placebo.
“Eligible patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive either pioglitazone or matching placebo.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe study was conducted and reported in accordance with the protocol.
“The study was conducted and reported with fidelity to the protocol.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationFour interim analyses of the primary outcome assessed efficacy and futility using the O'Brien-Fleming method.
“Four interim analyses of the primary outcome were conducted for efficacy and futility with the use of the O’Brien–Fleming method.19”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [19] source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationInsulin resistance is nearly universal in type 2 diabetes and is also found in more than half of patients without diabetes who have had an ischemic stroke or TIA.
“Insulin resistance is nearly universal in patients with type 2 diabetes but is also present in more than 50% of patients without diabetes who have had an ischemic stroke or a TIA.6”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [6] source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataAn independent data and safety monitoring board appointed by NINDS monitored the trial.
“The trial was monitored by an independent data and safety monitoring board appointed by the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, which funded the study.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataReasons for stopping the study drug were similar between groups, except more pioglitazone patients stopped for edema or weight gain (172 vs 51) or were removed for safety reasons (146 vs 117).
“The reasons for drug discontinuation were similar in the two groups, except that more patients in the pioglitazone group than in the placebo group stopped because of edema or weight gain (172 patients vs. 51 patients) or were removed for safety reasons (primarily heart failure, repeated fracture, and incidence of or risk factors for bladder cancer) (146 patients vs. 117 patients).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataOver a median follow-up of 4.8 years, 227 patients (5.9%) withdrew consent and 99 (2.6%) were lost to follow-up.
“During a median follow-up of 4.8 years, a total of 227 patients (5.9%) withdrew consent and 99 (2.6%) were lost-to-follow-up (Fig. S1 in the Supplementary Appendix).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataAn alleged irregularity in the informed-consent process at one institution led to halting local research activities while data remained blinded.
“Alleged irregularity in the informed-consent process at one institution resulted in halting of local research activities while the data were still blinded.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataAlthough no significant treatment effect on total or any specific cancer incidence was observed, the study was not powered to address these questions.
“Although we did not observe a significant effect of treatment on the incidence of total or any specific cancer, our study was not powered to address these questions.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe mechanism of pioglitazone's bone fracture risk is uncertain, and studies have not shown a consistent effect of the drug on bone density.
“The mechanism is uncertain, and studies have not shown a consistent effect of the drug on bone density.44,45”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationWeight gain with PPAR-γ agonists such as pioglitazone reflects increased adipose tissue mass and a tendency for fluid accumulation from renal sodium retention.
“Weight gain with PPAR-γ agonists, such as pioglitazone, reflects an increase in adipose tissue mass and a tendency for fluid accumulation owing to renal sodium retention.41”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [41] source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningOther measured and unmeasured effects may have contributed to pioglitazone's benefit on the primary outcome.
“However, other measured and unmeasured effects may have contributed to the benefit of the drug with respect to our primary outcome.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationSodium retention, if unchecked, can increase the risk of heart failure.
“Sodium retention, if unchecked, can also increase the risk of heart failure.42”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [42] source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationPioglitazone activates PPAR-γ and partially activates PPAR-α.
“Pioglitazone activates PPAR-γ and also causes partial activation of PPAR-α.35”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [35] source
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningIn IRIS, no greater incidence of heart failure was observed with pioglitazone, probably because patients with a history of heart failure were excluded and safety algorithms triggered dose reduction for excessive weight gain or edema.
“However, in the IRIS trial, we did not observe a greater incidence of heart failure in the pioglitazone group than in the placebo group, which was probably because we excluded patients with a history of heart failure and used safety algorithms that triggered dose reduction for excessive weight gain or edema.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningTo address lack of standardization of plasma insulin, all HOMA-IR testing in IRIS was performed in central laboratories.
“To account for this, all HOMA-IR testing in the IRIS trial was performed in central laboratories.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The authors state this as an assumption.
Data were missing at random for the cognitive function analysis.
“We used a repeated-measures covariance-pattern model on the assumption that data were missing at random to analyze the effect of treatment on cognitive function”
The paper relies on this without support.
Missing time-to-event data were noninformative censoring.
“Missing time-to-event data were treated as noninformative censoring.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
A 2021 meta-analysis of 7 randomized controlled trials (N=56,005 participants; 174,163 patient-years of follow-up) found that GLP-1 receptor agonists reduced nonfatal stroke (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.77-0.95) without statistically significant heterogeneity among the trials.
“A 2021 meta-analysis analyzed 7 RCTs (N 56,005 participants) with 174,163 patient years of follow-up and found that GLP-1 RAs reduced nonfatal stroke (RR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.77–0.95) without statistically significant heterogeneity among the trials.660”
From American Association of Clinical Endocrinology Clinical Practice Guideline: Developing a Diabetes Mellitus Comprehensive Care Plan-2022 Update. (2022) · cites this paper as [660]
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 1 disputed, 0 misattributed, 1 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredTZDs are associated with possible side effects of fluid retention and congestive heart failure, weight gain, and bone fracture.
“However, these bene fi ts must be balanced against possible side effects of fl uid retention and congestive HF (196,197,202), weight gain (196 -198,202,203), and bone fracture (204,205).”
In the IRIS study, in adults without diabetes but with insulin resistance and recent history of stroke or transient ischemic attack, there was a lower risk of stroke or myocardial infarction with pioglitazone versus placebo.
“In the Insulin Resistance Intervention After Stroke (IRIS) study in adults without diabetes but with insulin resistance (HOMA of insulin resistance > 3.0) and recent history of stroke or transient ischemic attack, there was a lower risk of stroke or myocardial infarction with pioglitazone versus placebo (198,199).”
The Insulin Resistance Intervention After Stroke trial reported no significant difference in cognition, measured by Modified Mini-Mental State Examination, associated with pioglitazone compared with placebo over a mean follow-up of 57.6 months.
“The Insulin Resistance Intervention After Stroke trial reported no significant difference in cognition, measured by Modified Mini-Mental State Examination, associated with pioglitazone compared with placebo over a mean follow-up of 57.6 months.48”
From Cardioprotective Glucose-Lowering Agents and Dementia Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (2025) · cites this paper as [48]
In IRIS, there was no increased risk of heart failure hospitalizations with pioglitazone, but patients with known heart failure were excluded, and protocols were in place for dose reduction with any signs of fluid overload.
“in IRIS, there was no increased risk of heart failure hospitalizations with pioglitazone, but patients with known heart failure were excluded, and there were protocols in place for study drug dose reduction with any signs of fluid overload”
From Clinical management of stable coronary artery disease in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a scientific statement from the American Heart Association (2020) · cites this paper as [212]
In IRIS, which involved 3876 patients with stroke and insulin resistance but not type 2 diabetes, pioglitazone produced a 24% relative risk reduction in stroke or myocardial infarction (9.0% versus 11.8%).
“in the IRIS trial (Insulin Resistance Intervention After Stroke), which involved 3876 patients with stroke and insulin resistance (but notably not T2DM), pioglitazone produced a 24% RRR in stroke or myocardial infarction (9.0% versus 11.8%)”
From Clinical management of stable coronary artery disease in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a scientific statement from the American Heart Association (2020) · cites this paper as [212]
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- Authors
- Kernan, W. N., Viscoli, C. M., Furie, K. L., Young, L. H., Inzucchi, S. E., Gorman, M., Guarino, P. D., Lovejoy, A. M., Peduzzi, P. N., Conwit, R., Brass, L. M., Schwartz, G. G., Adams, H. P., Berger, L., Carolei, A., Clark, W., Coull, B., Ford, G. A., Kleindorfer, D., O’Leary, J. R., Parsons, M. W., Ringleb, P., Sen, S., Spence, J. D., Tanne, D., Wang, D., & Winder, T. R.
- Affiliations
- Western University (CA)
- University of Vermont (US)
- Yale University (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- New England Journal of Medicine
- Publisher
- Massachusetts Medical Society
- Published
- 2016-04-07
- Volume
- 374
- Issue
- 14
- Pages
- 1321-1331
- ISSN
- 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4406
- PMC
- PMC4887756
- OpenAlex
- W2274836352
- Semantic Scholar
- 192abcbc3012aaf42b8606eddd5adedcee96ce93
- Cited by
- 1,127
- References
- 63
- Citations by year
- 2026: 50 · 2025: 64 · 2024: 93 · 2023: 106 · 2022: 80 · 2021: 128 · 2020: 118 · 2019: 113 · 2018: 119 · 2017: 150 · 2016: 87 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 140.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- IRIS Research product catalog (Sapienza University of Rome) (submittedVersion)
- PubMed Central (submittedVersion)
- Scholarship@Western (Western University) (submittedVersion)
- Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca - Università degli Studi dell Aquila (submittedVersion)
- NOVA (University of Newcastle Australia) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Lipoproteins and Cardiovascular Health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Acute Ischemic Stroke Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Keywords
- pioglitazone, ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, insulin resistance, HOMA-IR, secondary stroke prevention, myocardial infarction, weight gain
- MeSH terms
- Pioglitazone, Aged, Brain Ischemia, Ischemic Attack, Transient, Double-Blind Method, Female, Humans, Hypoglycemic Agents
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-09-28.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-09-28.
Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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