Individual common variants exert weak effects on the risk for autism spectrum disorders
Open accessAbstract
While it is apparent that rare variation can play an important role in the genetic architecture of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), the contribution of common variation to the risk of developing ASD is less clear. To produce a more comprehensive picture, we report Stage 2 of the Autism Genome Project genome-wide association study, adding 1301 ASD families and bringing the total to 2705 families analysed (Stages 1 and 2). In addition to evaluating the association of individual single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we also sought evidence that common variants, en masse, might affect the risk. Despite genotyping over a million SNPs covering the genome, no single SNP shows significant association with ASD or selected phenotypes at a genome-wide level. The SNP that achieves the smallest P-value from secondary analyses is rs1718101. It falls in CNTNAP2, a gene previously implicated in susceptibility for ASD. This SNP also shows modest association with age of word/phrase acquisition in ASD subjects, of interest because features of language development are also associated with other variation in CNTNAP2. In contrast, allele scores derived from the transmission of common alleles to Stage 1 cases significantly predict case status in the independent Stage 2 sample. Despite being significant, the variance explained by these allele scores was small (Vm< 1%). Based on results from individual SNPs and their en masse effect on risk, as inferred from the allele score results, it is reasonable to conclude that common variants affect the risk for ASD but their individual effects are modest.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Stage 2 of the Autism Genome Project GWAS added 1301 ASD families to Stage 1, yielding 2705 families and over 947,000 QC-passed SNPs, but found no genome-wide significant single-SNP association with ASD. Common variants en masse significantly predicted Stage 2 case status, yet explained <1% of variance, supporting individually weak but collectively detectable common-variant effects.
Key findings
- No single SNP reached genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8); the distribution of test statistics was consistent with chance. Four primary-analysis regions had uncorrected P < 10−6, including rs4150167 in TAF1C (Spectrum/All ancestries; overall P = 2.910e-07, OR = 0.51; Stage 1 OR = 0.37, Stage 2 OR = 0.65, P = 0.014).
- The strongest uncorrected association across all analyses was rs1718101 in CNTNAP2 in European individuals with higher IQ (P = 7.8 × 10−9; OR = 2.13). It also showed modest association with age-at-first-phrase (additive P = 0.017; dominant P = 0.015), while rs17236239 showed recessive association with age-at-first-phrase (P = 0.018) and rs2710102 showed modest ASD risk association (P = 0.045).
- Stage 1-derived allele scores significantly predicted Stage 2 case versus pseudo-control status, but explained little variance: always <1%, with the greatest signal in European ancestry individuals with strict autism diagnosis (Vm = 0.78%; empirical P < 0.001). Most variance accrued to the minor allele frequency quintile 0.2–0.3.
- The previously highlighted MACROD2 SNP rs4141463 showed little Stage 2 signal (Stage 1 P = 2.40 × 10−8, OR = 0.65; Stage 2 P = 0.206, OR = 0.91; combined P = 1.2 × 10−6, OR = 0.77).
Methods
- The Autism Genome Project Stage 2 GWAS added 1301 ASD families to Stage 1, for a combined 2705 families; genotyping used Illumina Infinium 1M-single or 1M-duo arrays, with 947,233 SNPs passing QC.
- Primary family-based association analyses used an additive model across four overlapping datasets defined by diagnosis (spectrum vs strict) and ancestry (all ancestries vs European); secondary analyses examined parent-of-origin, verbal/non-verbal status, IQ, and age at first word/phrase using FBAT and in-house family-based methods.
- Allele scores were built from Stage 1 GWA signals at 10 P-value thresholds (P < 0.5 to P < 0.00001), then tested in Stage 2 via logistic regression predicting case status against pseudo-controls, with ancestry and non-missing genotype counts as covariates; variance explained was estimated by Nagelkerke pseudo R-squared difference and empirical significance by 1000 permutations.
Limitations
- The paper states that the allele-score analysis assumes pseudo-control liability distribution resembles the general population; an excess of multiplex families (at least 33% of families studied; 47.5% simplex, 19.5% unknown) could substantially bias Vm downward, and a larger Stage 1 predictor sample would improve score accuracy.
- The paper states that power to detect a protective effect for rs4150167 is small, so the posterior probability that this observation is a false positive is large; secondary-analysis P-values are uncorrected for multiple testing and none should be considered significant.
- Evident from the text: the top uncorrected CNTNAP2 SNP rs1718101 was not supported by other genotyped SNPs in LD, and the sample was predominantly European ancestry (94.9% of probands), limiting generalization and independent confirmation.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
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Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
0 of 39 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
Exploratory analyses produce no significant findings after adjusting for multiple testing.
“Exploratory analyses also produce no significant findings after adjusting for multiple testing (Table 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Most of the variance explained accrues to the minor allele frequency quintile 0.2-0.3.
“Analyses stratifying by quintile of minor allele frequency showed that most of the variance explained accrues to the quintile 0.2–0.3 (Supplementary Material, Fig. S6).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Allele scores derived from the transmission of common alleles to Stage 1 cases significantly predict case status in the independent Stage 2 sample.
“In contrast, allele scores derived from the transmission of common alleles to Stage 1 cases significantly predict case status in the independent Stage 2 sample.”
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
“When examined against Stage 2 individuals, the Stage 1 scores were significant predictors of case status (Fig. 1) and thus explain a significant portion of variance in case and control status of Stage 2 samples.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Individual common variants exert only a limited effect on risk and many such variants are present and exert these effects independently.
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
- Findingown data
The variance explained by the allele scores was small (Vm < 1%).
“Despite being significant, the variance explained by these allele scores was small (Vm< 1%).”
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
“Still the markers explain only a small proportion of the variance—always <1%, with the greatest signal observed in the smallest yet most homogeneous group, namely European ancestry individuals with a Strict diagnosis of autism (Vm = 0.78%; Empirical P< 0.001).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The distribution of liability for pseudo controls is similar to that of the general population.
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
- Findingown data
No single SNP shows significant association with ASD or selected phenotypes at a genome-wide level.
“Despite genotyping over a million SNPs covering the genome, no single SNP shows significant association with ASD or selected phenotypes at a genome-wide level.”
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
“Association analyses of these four classes do not identify any single SNP to be significantly associated with autism as judged by an accepted threshold for genome-wide significance, P < 5 × 10−8.”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
“From this large data set, we observed no genome-wide significant association with specific common variants.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
- Findingown data
Multiplex families comprise at least 33% of the families studied here (47.5% simplex, 19.5% unknown).
“Multiplex families comprise at least 33% of the families studied here (47.5% simplex, 19.5% unknown)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
rs4150167 shows evidence of a modest association in Stage 2 (Spectrum, All ancestries; Stage 1 OR = 0.37, P = 7.87 × 10−7; Stage 2 OR = 0.65, P = 0.014).
“When we evaluated the corresponding Stage 2 results with SNPs highlighted by our Stage 1 study (21), only one shows evidence of a modest association, namely rs4150167, which is a non-synonymous variant in TAF1C (Spectrum, All ancestries; rs4150167-A; Stage 1 OR = 0.37, P= 7.87 × 10−7; Stage 2 OR = 0.65, P= 0.014).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
rs1718101 shows modest association with age of word/phrase acquisition in ASD subjects.
“This SNP also shows modest association with age of word/phrase acquisition in ASD subjects, of interest because features of language development are also associated with other variation in CNTNAP2.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The variance explained increases with an increased number of markers in the model.
“In general, the variance explained increases with an increased number of markers in the model.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Of the promising results from other GWAS studies, only rs1328244 (13q33.3) and rs6646569 (Xq24) described by Wang et al. garner support from the combined AGP sample.
“Of the promising results from other GWAS studies (22,23,34), only rs1328244 (13q33.3) and rs6646569 (Xq24) described by Wang et al. (22) garner support from the combined AGP sample, although it is important to bear in mind that the studies overlap somewhat in samples/families and thus correlated statistics are expected (Table 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [22] Wang, 2009, Common genetic variants on 5p14.1 associate with autism spectrum disorders, Nature source
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingown data
No other SNP genotyped by this study supports the association of rs1718101.
“This SNP is not in substantial linkage disequilibrium (LD) with other genotyped SNPs and thus no other SNP genotyped by this study supports its association.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The strongest uncorrected association observed across all analyses was for rs1718101 in European individuals with higher IQ (P-value = 7.8 × 10−9; OR = 2.13).
“The strongest uncorrected association observed across all analyses was for rs1718101 in European individuals with higher IQ (P-value = 7.8 × 10−9; OR = 2.13).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
rs1718101 is not in substantial LD with other genotyped SNPs.
“This SNP is not in substantial linkage disequilibrium (LD) with other genotyped SNPs and thus no other SNP genotyped by this study supports its association.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The greatest signal was observed in European ancestry individuals with a Strict diagnosis of autism (Vm = 0.78%; Empirical P < 0.001).
“Still the markers explain only a small proportion of the variance—always <1%, with the greatest signal observed in the smallest yet most homogeneous group, namely European ancestry individuals with a Strict diagnosis of autism (Vm = 0.78%; Empirical P< 0.001).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The distribution of liability for pseudo controls is similar to that of the general population.
- Findingown data
In our data, no individual common variants are significantly associated with the risk for ASD.
“That no individual common variants are significantly associated with the risk for ASD in our data was anticipated by earlier analyses (28)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The primary analyses assume an additive model for the effect of transmitted alleles on the risk of ASD.
- Findingown data
For the mega-analysis, the association of rs4141463 is less compelling (P = 1.2 × 10−6; OR = 0.77) than previously reported.
“Thus, for the mega-analysis reported here, the association is less compelling (P-value = 1.2 × 10−6; OR = 0.77) than previously reported (21).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
rs17236239 shows modest association with age-at-first-phrase under a recessive model.
“For the language outcomes, rs1718101 shows modest, significant association with age-at-first-phrase, acting either additively or dominantly but not recessively; rs17236239 shows modest association with age-at-first-phrase under a recessive model (Table 5).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Of the three SNPs reported in the literature, rs2710102 shows very modest association with the risk for ASD.
“Of the three SNPs reported in the literature, one (rs2710102) shows very modest association with the risk for ASD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The allele score accounts for <1% of the variance.
“The score cannot account for much of the variance, <1%”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The primary analyses assume an additive model for the effect of transmitted alleles on the risk of ASD.
- Findingown data
MACROD2 SNP rs4141463 showed little if any signal in the Stage 2 sample (P = 0.206, OR = 0.91).
“The most highly associated MACROD2 SNP from primary Stage 1 analyses, rs4141463 (P-value = 2.40 × 10−8; OR = 0.65), obtained by analyses of subjects with a strict diagnosis of autism and of European ancestry, showed little if any signal in the Stage 2 sample (P-value = 0.206, OR = 0.91).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Allele scores derived in Stage 1 predict case and pseudo-control status in Stage 2.
“We find that allele scores derived in Stage 1 do indeed predict case and pseudo-control status in Stage 2”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The primary analyses assume an additive model for the effect of transmitted alleles on the risk of ASD.
- Findingown data
Within MACROD2, three SNPs show substantial but still non-significant over-transmission of specific alleles from mothers.
“Within this large gene three SNPs show substantial but still non-significant over-transmission of specific alleles from mothers (Table 3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
The allele score results suggest that many common variants affect risk.
“Although these results were noisy (Supplementary Material, Fig. S6), they suggest that many common variants affect risk.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The distribution of liability for pseudo controls is similar to that of the general population.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Individual common variants exert only a limited effect on risk and many such variants are present and exert these effects independently.
- Interpretationreasoning
The posterior probability that the rs4150167 observation is a false positive is large.
“Statistically, therefore, the posterior probability that this observation is a false positive is large.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
An excess of multiplex families relative to population frequencies could substantially diminish the estimated Vm.
“Various factors could skew this distribution and thus bias downwards the estimated Vm, a notable one being an excess of multiplex families relative to population frequencies (35,36).”
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · hedged
“Multiplex families comprise at least 33% of the families studied here (47.5% simplex, 19.5% unknown), and thus could substantially diminish the estimated Vm.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [35] Risch, 2001, Implications of multilocus inheritance for gene-disease association studies, Theor. Popul. Biol. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [36] Ferreira, 2007, Ascertainment through family history of disease often decreases the power of family-based association studies, Behav. Genet. 37 source
Not checked in the free run.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The distribution of liability for pseudo controls is similar to that of the general population.
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · hedged
- Study design and conductown data
The association of rs4150167 should be viewed cautiously because the power of this study to detect a protective effect is small.
“On the other hand the association should be viewed cautiously because the power of this study to detect a protective effect is small.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Rare variation plays a substantial role in ASD.
“Thus far, we can conclude that rare variation plays a substantial role (9,25), complementing many other studies (26,27).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [9] Pinto, 2010, Functional impact of global rare copy number variation in autism spectrum disorders, Nature source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [25] Szatmari, 2007, Mapping autism risk loci using genetic linkage and chromosomal rearrangements, Nat. Genet. source
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- cites [26] Betancur, 2011, Etiological heterogeneity in autism spectrum disorders: more than 100 genetic and genomic disorders and still counting, Brain Res. source
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- cites [27] Devlin, 2012, Genetic architecture in autism spectrum disorder, Curr. Opin. Genet. Devel. source
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- Premisecitation
To consistently and reliably detect common variants of modest effect will require samples in the tens of thousands.
“To consistently and reliably detect common variants of modest effect will require samples in the tens of thousands (29).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [29] Sullivan, 2012, Don't give up on GWAS, Mol. Psychiatry source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning
The individual effects of common variants affecting ASD risk are modest.
“their individual effects are modest”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The primary analyses assume an additive model for the effect of transmitted alleles on the risk of ASD.
- Interpretationcitation
The variance explained by the allele score is only about a third of that recently explained for schizophrenia.
“and only about a third of that recently explained for schizophrenia (30)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [30] Purcell, 2009, Common polygenic variation contributes to risk of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, Nature source
Not checked in the free run.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The primary analyses assume an additive model for the effect of transmitted alleles on the risk of ASD.
- Interpretationown data
Common variants affect the risk for ASD.
“making the case that common variants affect the risk for ASD”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · boosted
“the existence of common variants affecting the risk of ASD is almost assured”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The primary analyses assume an additive model for the effect of transmitted alleles on the risk of ASD.
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · boosted
- Interpretationown data
If SNPs in MACROD2 or its intra-genic antisense RNA genes play a role in risk for ASD, their effect size is modest.
“If they do, however, there can now be little doubt that their effect size is modest on the basis of our results and others (24).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [24] Curran, 2011, No association between a common single nucleotide polymorphism, rs4141463, in the MACROD2 gene and autism spectrum disorder, Am. J. Med. Genet. B Neuropsychiatr. Genet. source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning
The collective effects of common variants affecting ASD risk could be smaller than that for rare variation.
“their collective effects could be smaller than that for rare variation”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The primary analyses assume an additive model for the effect of transmitted alleles on the risk of ASD.
- Interpretationown data
Our results from >2700 trios, together with the results from other published GWAS, bear out the prediction that few if any common variants have an impact on risk exceeding 1.2.
“Our results from >2700 trios, together with the results from other published GWAS (22,23,34), bear out this prediction.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [22] Wang, 2009, Common genetic variants on 5p14.1 associate with autism spectrum disorders, Nature source
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- cites [23] Weiss, 2009, A genome-wide linkage and association scan reveals novel loci for autism, Nature source
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- cites [34] Ma, 2009, A genome-wide association study of autism reveals a common novel risk locus at 5p14.1, Ann. Hum. Genet. source
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- The authors state this as an assumption: The primary analyses assume an additive model for the effect of transmitted alleles on the risk of ASD.
- Interpretationcitation
Common variants account for a non-trivial proportion of risk.
“suggesting that common variants account for a non-trivial proportion of risk”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Gene-set enrichment and related analyses for AGP and other ASD data sets have found significant evidence for common variants affecting risk.
“gene-set enrichment and related analyses for AGP and other ASD data sets have found significant evidence for common variants affecting risk (54–57)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [54] Anney, 2011, Gene-ontology enrichment analysis in two independent family-based samples highlights biologically plausible processes for autism spectrum disorders, Eur. J. Hum. Genet. source
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- cites [55] Yaspan, 2011, Genetic analysis of biological pathway data through genomic randomization, Hum. Genet. source
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- cites [56] Hussman, 2011, A noise-reduction GWAS analysis implicates altered regulation of neurite outgrowth and guidance in autism, Mol. Autism source
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- cites [57] Davis, 2012, Loci nominally associated with autism from genome-wide analysis show enrichment of brain expression quantitative trait loci but not lymphoblastoid cell line expression quantitative trait loci, Mol. Autism source
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- Interpretationcitation
Many true positive associations of small effect could be buried in the noise of stochastic variation.
“and that many true positive associations of small effect could be buried in the noise of stochastic variation”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- May combine two claims. 11
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 17
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe same pattern of over-transmission of the common allele is present in the Stage 2 sample and cannot be traced to a genotyping error.
“The same pattern, although not as extreme, is present in the Stage 2 sample and again cannot be traced to a genotyping error (Supplementary Material, Fig. S7).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe common allele for rs4150167 was over-transmitted and is represented on roughly 98% of the chromosomes.
“Of interest is that the common allele for rs4150167 was over-transmitted and is represented on roughly 98% of the chromosomes.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataThe SNP that achieves the smallest P-value from secondary analyses is rs1718101.
“The SNP that achieves the smallest P-value from secondary analyses is rs1718101.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown data94.9% of the probands are of European ancestry.
“Ancestry analysis, estimated from numerous genetic markers by using standard techniques (31–33) and mapped back onto European recruitment sites to anchor the common ancestry of subjects, showed that 94.9% of the probands are of European ancestry (Supplementary Material, Fig. S1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataOnly four genomic regions show association signals at P < 10−6, two falling in genes.
“Only four genomic regions show association signals at P < 10−6, two falling in genes (Table 2; Supplementary Material, Figs S4 and 5).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown datars1718101 falls in CNTNAP2.
“It falls in CNTNAP2, a gene previously implicated in susceptibility for ASD.”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
“The SNP resides within CNTNAP2 (7q35), which encodes the Contactin-associated protein-like 2, a member of the neurexin-family thought to play a role in axonal differentiation and guidance.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingnone givenThe region encompassed by these three SNPs captures the 3′ region of a putative antisense RNA, specifically CR596518, and one SNP falls in its translated region (rs14135).
“The region encompassed by these three SNPs captures the 3′ region of a putative antisense RNA, specifically CR596518, and one SNP falls in its translated region (rs14135).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown datars1718101 shows modest, significant association with age-at-first-phrase, acting either additively or dominantly but not recessively.
“For the language outcomes, rs1718101 shows modest, significant association with age-at-first-phrase, acting either additively or dominantly but not recessively; rs17236239 shows modest association with age-at-first-phrase under a recessive model (Table 5).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningIf rs4150167 were a true causal effect, the minor allele is protective.
“If this were a true causal effect, it suggests that the minor allele at rs4150167 is somehow protective.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationCNTNAP2 has previously been implicated in ASD, in part because it resides within regions of suggestive linkage.
“CNTNAP2 is one of the largest genes in the human genome encompassing ∼1.5% of chromosome 7 and has previously been implicated in ASD, in part because it resides within regions of suggestive linkage (39).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [39] Liu, 2001, A genomewide screen for autism susceptibility loci, Am. J. Hum. Genet. source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataExamination of genotype intensity plots showed good quality clustering for rs1718101.
“Examination of the genotype intensity plots, however, showed good quality clustering (Supplementary Material, Fig. S7).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningCommon variants affect the risk for ASD but their individual effects are modest.
“Based on results from individual SNPs and their en masse effect on risk, as inferred from the allele score results, it is reasonable to conclude that common variants affect the risk for ASD but their individual effects are modest.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The distribution of liability for pseudo controls is similar to that of the general population.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Individual common variants exert only a limited effect on risk and many such variants are present and exert these effects independently.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationCommon variants in CNTNAP2 have also been associated with ASD and specific-language impairment.
“Common variants in CNTNAP2 have also been associated with ASD (49–51) and specific-language impairment (52).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [49] Alarcon, 2008, Linkage, association, and gene-expression analyses identify CNTNAP2 as an autism-susceptibility gene, Am. J. Hum. Genet. source
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- cites [50] Arking, 2008, A common genetic variant in the neurexin superfamily member CNTNAP2 increases familial risk of autism, Am. J. Hum. Genet. source
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- cites [51] Bakkaloglu, 2008, Molecular cytogenetic analysis and resequencing of contactin associated protein-like 2 in autism spectrum disorders, Am. J. Hum. Genet. source
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- cites [52] Vernes, 2008, A functional genetic link between distinct developmental language disorders, N. Engl. J. Med. source
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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationRare variation in CNTNAP2, including CNVs, other structural disruptions and deleterious sequence variation, has been identified in subjects with autism, epilepsy, intellectual disability, Pitt-Hopkins-like syndrome, schizophrenia and Tourette syndrome.
“More directly, rare variation in CNTNAP2, including CNVs, other structural disruptions and deleterious sequence variation, has been identified in subjects with autism, epilepsy, intellectual disability, Pitt-Hopkins-like syndrome, schizophrenia and Tourette syndrome (42–48), albeit with differing degrees of evidence for effect on these traits.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 7 sources checked- cites [42] Mikhail, 2011, Clinically relevant single gene or intragenic deletions encompassing critical neurodevelopmental genes in patients with developmental delay, mental retardation, and/or autism spectrum disorders, Am. J. Med. Genet. A source
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- cites [43] Gregor, 2011, Expanding the clinical spectrum associated with defects in CNTNAP2 and NRXN1, BMC Med. Genet. source
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- cites [44] Sehested, 2010, Deletion of 7q34-q36.2 in two siblings with mental retardation, language delay, primary amenorrhea, and dysmorphic features, Am. J. Med. Genet. A source
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- cites [45] Mefford, 2010, Genome-wide copy number variation in epilepsy: novel susceptibility loci in idiopathic generalized and focal epilepsies, PLoS. Genet. source
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- cites [46] Zweier, 2009, CNTNAP2 and NRXN1 are mutated in autosomal-recessive Pitt-Hopkins-like mental retardation and determine the level of a common synaptic protein in Drosophila, Am. J. Hum. Genet. source
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- cites [47] Poot, 2010, Disruption of CNTNAP2 and additional structural genome changes in a boy with speech delay and autism spectrum disorder, Neurogenetics source
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- cites [48] Jackman, 2009, Gene associated with seizures, autism, and hepatomegaly in an Amish girl, Pediatr. Neurol. source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationUse of a larger sample size to develop the predictor should produce a more accurate allele score and thus increase the amount of variance in Stage 2 case and control status explained.
“In addition, as pointed out by Ripke et al. (37), the use of a larger sample size to develop the predictor (i.e. model from the Stage 1 sample) should produce a more accurate allele score and thus increase the amount of variance in the Stage 2 case and control status explained.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [37] Ripke, 2011, Genome-wide association study identifies five new schizophrenia loci, Nat. Genet. 43 source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe protective allele results in a non-synonymous glycine to arginine change at amino acid position 523 and has also been implicated in alternate splicing.
“The protective allele results in a non-synonymous glycine to arginine change at amino acid position 523 and has also been implicated in alternate splicing (38), both of which offer a starting point for investigation of the impact of this variation on gene function.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [38] Hiller, 2006, Single-nucleotide polymorphisms in NAGNAG acceptors are highly predictive for variations of alternative splicing, Am. J. Hum. Genet. source
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Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductcitationAll quality control (QC) procedures were consistent across data sets.
“All quality control (QC) procedures were consistent across data sets and are described elsewhere (21).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [21] Anney, 2010, A genome-wide scan for common alleles affecting risk for autism, Hum. Mol. Genet. source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationEarlier analyses predicted that few if any common variants have an impact on risk exceeding 1.2 (or below its inverse).
“These analyses predicted that few if any common variants have an impact on risk exceeding 1.2 (or below its inverse).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [28] Devlin, 2011, Do common variants play a role in risk for autism? Evidence and theoretical musings, Brain Res. source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationAntisense RNA can play a role in the mechanics of imprinting.
“Because antisense RNA can play a role in the mechanics of imprinting (53), this observation is of some note.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [53] Williamson, 2011, Uncoupling antisense-mediated silencing and DNA methylation in the imprinted Gnas cluster, PLoS Genet. source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationRecent studies of rare variants find it challenging to distinguish risk variation from the background stochastic noise.
“Qualitatively, recent studies of rare variants also find it challenging to distinguish risk variation from the background stochastic noise (12–15).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [12] Sanders, 2012, Disruptive de novo point mutations, revealed by whole-exome sequencing, are strongly associated with Autism Spectrum Disorders, Nature source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [13] O'Roak, 2012, Sporadic autism exomes reveal a highly interconnected network of de novo mutations, Nature source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [14] Neale, 2012, Patterns and rates of exonic de novo mutations in autism spectrum disorders, Nature source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [15] Iossifov, 2012, De novo gene disruptions in children on the autistic spectrum, Neuron source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataNo duplicate samples were found between Stages 1 and 2, or within the Stages.
“we searched the data set for duplicate samples between Stages 1 and 2, as well as within the Stages, and found none”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataA total of 947,233 SNPs passed QC for the combined data sets.
“A total of 947 233 SNPs passed QC for the combined data sets.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
Interpretationown dataWithout additional biological or statistical evidence, the MACROD2 result is unconvincing.
“Nonetheless, without additional biological or statistical evidence, the result is unconvincing.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe analyses in Devlin et al. (28) cannot be precise when predicting the number of loci with common variants of modest impact on risk (0.8< risk <1.2); the modelling is consistent with a range of loci from zero to many thousands.
“The analyses laid out in Devlin et al. (28) cannot be precise when predicting the number of loci with common variants of modest impact on risk (0.8< risk <1.2); the modelling is consistent with a range of loci from zero to many thousands.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [28] Devlin, 2011, Do common variants play a role in risk for autism? Evidence and theoretical musings, Brain Res. source
Not checked in the free run.
The authors state this as an assumption.
The distribution of liability for pseudo controls is similar to that of the general population.
“Importantly the allele-score analysis assumes that the distribution of liability for pseudo controls is similar to that of the general population.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Individual common variants exert only a limited effect on risk and many such variants are present and exert these effects independently.
“Under the hypothesis that individual common variants exert only a limited effect on risk and that many such variants are present and exert these effects independently, we would expect these effects to be detectable in an analysis of common variants en masse.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The primary analyses assume an additive model for the effect of transmitted alleles on the risk of ASD.
“the primary analyses assume an additive model”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The study reports the first common risk variants robustly associated with ASD by more than doubling the discovery sample size compared to previous GWAS.
“Here we report the first common risk variants robustly associated with ASD by more than doubling the discovery sample size compared to previous GWAS 5-8 .”
From Identification of common genetic risk variants for autism spectrum disorder (2019) · cites this paper as [8]
A single common SNP has a very weak effect on ASD risk.
“Common variation in the form of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) has a very weak effect when a given SNP is considered individually (16).”
From Genetics and genomics of autism spectrum disorder: embracing complexity (2015) · cites this paper as [16]
ASD genomewide association studies have not identified reproducible SNP associations.
“and have failed to identify reproducible SNP associations (16)(17)(18)(19)(20).”
From Genetics and genomics of autism spectrum disorder: embracing complexity (2015) · cites this paper as [16]
ASD genomewide association studies to date have been underpowered because individual SNPs have weak effects and sample sizes have been insufficient.
“As a result, genomewide association studies carried out to date have been underpowered due to the weak effect of individual SNPs (16) and, hence, insufficient sample size [the largest study has analyzed 2,705 families (16)]”
From Genetics and genomics of autism spectrum disorder: embracing complexity (2015) · cites this paper as [16]
Polygenic risk from many SNPs is a major determinant of ASD variance.
“However, polygenic risk due to a large number of SNPs is a major determinant of the variance for ASD (11,12,16) (Fig. 1).”
From Genetics and genomics of autism spectrum disorder: embracing complexity (2015) · cites this paper as [16]
Early ASD GWAS had low statistical power to robustly identify genome-wide significant loci at effect sizes OR < 1.15.
“Early GWAS [12, 14–17] were performed using a variety of genotyping arrays, and the independent samples sizes were of low statistical power to robustly identify genome-wide significant (GWS) loci at the lower effect sizes (OR <1.15) [18].”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Two positions reported for rs1718101
MinorTable 3 places rs1718101 at position 145753720, while Table 5 places the same SNP at 145753721.
“| 7 | 145753720 | rs1718101 | CNTNAP2 | IQ+/Eur | Additive | 7.783e−09 | 2.13 (1.63–2.80) | 2.16 | 2.11 |”
“| rs1718101f | R(A) | 7 | 145753721 | A | G | 0.054 | −1.78 | 0.074 | −1.51 | 0.130 | −1.72 | 0.086 |”
Total family count differs between Discussion and Table 1
MinorThe Discussion says the combined analysis included 2678 families, but Table 1 lists 2705 spectrum families. The table identifies 2678 as the number of families with one case, not the total number of families.
“For this report the AGP genotyped 1301 additional families for almost one million SNPs, bringing the total analysed herein to 2678 families.”
“| Spectrum | 1301 | 1289 | 11 | 1 | 2705 | 2678 | 26 | 1 |”
Wang et al. attribution conflicts with Table 4 reference
MinorThe text attributes rs1328244 and rs6646569 to Wang et al. (22), but Table 4 gives (21) as the reference for their original P-values.
“only rs1328244 (13q33.3) and rs6646569 (Xq24) described by Wang et al. (22) garner support from the combined AGP sample”
“| 13 | 108881898 | rs1328244 | 8.2 × 10−7 | (21)b | 0.0094 | rs1328244; P= 0.0094 |”
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- Authors
- Anney, R., Klei, L., Pinto, D., Almeida, J., Bacchelli, E., Baird, G., Bolshakova, N., Bölte, S., Bolton, P. F., Bourgeron, T., Brennan, S., Brian, J., Casey, J., Conroy, J., Correia, C., Corsello, C., Crawford, E. L., de Jonge, M., Delorme, R., Duketis, E., Duque, F., Estes, A., Farrar, P., Fernandez, B. A., Folstein, S. E., Fombonne, E., Gilbert, J., Gillberg, C., Glessner, J. T., Green, A., Green, J., Guter, S. J., Heron, E. A., Holt, R., Howe, J. L., Hughes, G., Hus, V., Igliozzi, R., Jacob, S., Kenny, G. P., Kim, C., Kolevzon, A., Kustanovich, V., Lajonchere, C. M., Lamb, J. A., Law-Smith, M., Leboyer, M., Le Couteur, A., Leventhal, B. L., Liu, X.-Q., Lombard, F., Lord, C., Lotspeich, L., Lund, S. C., Magalhaes, T. R., Mantoulan, C., McDougle, C. J., Melhem, N. M., Merikangas, A., Minshew, N. J., Mirza, G. K., Munson, J., Noakes, C., Nygren, G., Papanikolaou, K., Pagnamenta, A. T., Parrini, B., Paton, T., Pickles, A., Posey, D. J., Poustka, F., Ragoussis, J., Regan, R., Roberts, W., Roeder, K., Roge, B., Rutter, M. L., Schlitt, S., Shah, N., Sheffield, V. C., Soorya, L., Sousa, I., Stoppioni, V., Sykes, N., Tancredi, R., Thompson, A. P., Thomson, S., Tryfon, A., Tsiantis, J., Van Engeland, H., Vincent, J. B., Volkmar, F., Vorstman, J., Wallace, S., Wing, K., Wittemeyer, K., Wood, S., Zurawiecki, D., Zwaigenbaum, L., Bailey, A. J., Battaglia, A., Cantor, R. M., Coon, H., Cuccaro, M. L., Dawson, G., Ennis, S., Freitag, C. M., Geschwind, D. H., Haines, J. L., Klauck, S. M., McMahon, W. M., Maestrini, E., Miller, J., Monaco, A. P., Nelson, S. F., Nurnberger, J. I., Oliveira, G., Parr, J. R., Pericak-Vance, M. A., Piven, J., Schellenberg, G. D., Scherer, S. W., Vicente, A. M., Wassink, T. H., Wijsman, E. M., Betancur, C., Buxbaum, J. D., Cook, E. H., Gallagher, L., Gill, M., Hallmayer, J., Paterson, A. D., Sutcliffe, J. S., Szatmari, P., Vieland, V. J., Hakonarson, H., & Devlin, B.
- Affiliations
- Trinity College Dublin (IE)
- University of Pittsburgh (US)
- University of Toronto (CA)
- Unidade Local de Saúde de Coimbra (PT)
- University of Bologna (IT)
- King's College London (GB)
- Goethe University Frankfurt (DE)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- University College Dublin (IE)
- University of Lisbon (PT)
- University of Michigan (US)
- Vanderbilt University (US)
- Assistance Publique – Hôpitaux de Paris (FR)
- University of Washington (US)
- Centre for Human Genetics (GB)
- Memorial University of Newfoundland (CA)
- University of Miami (US)
- McGill University (CA)
- University of Gothenburg (SE)
- Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (US)
- University of Manchester (GB)
- University of Illinois Chicago (US)
- Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai (US)
- Autism Speaks (US)
- Inserm (FR)
- Nathan Kline Institute for Psychiatric Research (US)
- University of Manitoba (CA)
- Cornell University (US)
- Stanford Medicine (US)
- Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès (FR)
- Harvard University (US)
- University of Iowa (US)
- Indiana University Bloomington (US)
- Carnegie Mellon University (US)
- McMaster University (CA)
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (GR)
- Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CA)
- Yale University (US)
- Warneford Hospital (GB)
- University of Alberta (CA)
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- University of Utah (US)
- German Cancer Research Center (DE)
- Tufts University (US)
- Newcastle University (GB)
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- Battelle (US)
- Corresponding author
- Anney, Richard
- Devlin, Bernie
- ORCID
- Anney, Richard
- Klei, Lambertus
- Pinto, Dalila
- Almeida, Joana
- Bacchelli, Elena
- Baird, Gillian
- Bolshakova, Nadia
- Bölte, Sven
- Bolton, Patrick F.
- Bourgeron, Thomas
- Brian, Jessica
- Casey, Jillian
- Correia, Catarina
- Corsello, Christina
- Delorme, Richard
- Duque, Frederico
- Estes, Annette
- Fernandez, Bridget A.
- Fombonne, Eric
- Gilbert, John
- Gillberg, Christopher
- Glessner, Joseph T.
- Green, Andrew
- Green, Jonathan
- Guter, Stephen J.
- Heron, Elizabeth A.
- Igliozzi, Roberta
- Jacob, Suma
- Kolevzon, Alexander
- Lajonchere, Clara M.
- Lamb, Janine A.
- Leboyer, Marion
- Leventhal, Bennett L.
- Lord, Catherine
- Lund, Sabata C.
- McDougle, Christopher J.
- Melhem, Nadine M.
- Merikangas, Alison
- Minshew, Nancy J.
- Nygren, Gudrun
- Pagnamenta, Alistair T.
- Paton, Tara
- Pickles, Andrew
- Ragoussis, Jiannis
- Roeder, Kathryn
- Rutter, Michael L.
- Shah, Naisha
- Sheffield, Val C.
- Soorya, Latha
- Sousa, Inês
- Tancredi, Raffaella
- Vincent, John B.
- Volkmar, Fred
- Wallace, Simon
- Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie
- Battaglia, Agatino
- Cantor, Rita M.
- Coon, Hilary
- Cuccaro, Michael L.
- Ennis, Sean
- Freitag, Christine M.
- Geschwind, Daniel H.
- Haines, Jonathan L.
- Maestrini, Elena
- Monaco, Anthony P.
- Nelson, Stanley F.
- Oliveira, Guiomar
- Parr, Jeremy R.
- Piven, Joseph
- Schellenberg, Gerard D.
- Scherer, Stephen W.
- Vicente, Astrid M.
- Wassink, Thomas H.
- Wijsman, Ellen M.
- Betancur, Catalina
- Buxbaum, Joseph D.
- Cook, Edwin H.
- Gallagher, Louise
- Gill, Michael
- Hallmayer, Joachim
- Paterson, Andrew D.
- Sutcliffe, James S.
- Vieland, Veronica J.
- Hakonarson, Hakon
- Devlin, Bernie
- Venue
- Human Molecular Genetics
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2012-07-26
- Volume
- 21
- Issue
- 21
- Pages
- 4781-4792
- ISSN
- 0964-6906 (ISSN-L)
- 1460-2083
- PMC
- PMC3471395
- OpenAlex
- W2100242214
- Semantic Scholar
- df88effa48e2bf8b1f92e97b9f661df36de39d9a
- Cited by
- 375
- References
- 69
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 30 · 2019: 25 · 2018: 24 · 2017: 38 · 2016: 38 · 2015: 41 · 2014: 55 · 2013: 43 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 23.44
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Licence
- cc-by-nc
- Locations
- Human Molecular Genetics (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research Explorer (The University of Manchester) (publishedVersion)
- Arrow@dit (Dublin Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Rutgers University Community Repository (Rutgers University) (submittedVersion)
- Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) (submittedVersion)
- Archivio istituzionale della ricerca (Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna) (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- eSpace (Curtin University) (submittedVersion)
- ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University) (submittedVersion)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Server of Goethe University Frankfurt am Main (Goethe University Frankfurt) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- UNC Libraries
- Newcastle University ePrints (Newcastle Univesity)
- Funders
- Autism Speaks (AS7569)
- GlaxoSmithKline
- Ontario Innovation Trust
- Genome Canada
- Wellcome Trust (075491, 075491/Z/04,, 090532)
- Health Research Board
- Ontario Genomics
- Hussman Foundation
- Fondation Orange
- Ontario Genomics Institute
- Sick Kids Foundation
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (NF-SI-0510-10268)
- Science Foundation Ireland
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
- Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale
- Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie van Wetenschappen
- Ministero della Salute
- Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (825.06.031)
- University of Toronto
- Fondation de France
- Hospital for Sick Children
- National Institutes of Health (075491/Z/04, MH057881, HD055748, HD055751)
- Canadian Institutes of Health Research
- Medical Research Council
- Ontario Ministry of Research and Innovation
- National Institute of Mental Health (MH-066673, R01MH061009, MH66766, R01MH052708, U54MH066673, MH06359, R01MH094400, R01MH080647, R37MH057881, U10MH066766, MH 55284, MH081754, R01MH057881, R01MH081754, MH52708, MH080647, MH057881, MH061009, R01MH055284)
- National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NS026630, NS049261, P01NS026630, R01NS049261, R01NS042165, NS-042165)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P50HD055751, P50HD055782, HD035469, HD055784, P01HD035469, HD055751, P50HD055748, P50HD055784, HD055782, HD 055748)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Autism Spectrum Disorder Research
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetics and Neurodevelopmental Disorders
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetic Associations and Epidemiology
- Keywords
- autism spectrum disorder, common genetic variants, single nucleotide polymorphisms, genome-wide association study, CNTNAP2, language development, family transmission, genetic susceptibility
- MeSH terms
- Alleles, Child, Child Development Disorders, Pervasive, Female, Gene Frequency, Genotype, Humans, Language Development, Male, Membrane Proteins, Nerve Tissue Proteins, Risk Factors, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Genome-Wide Association Study
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