The effect of conspiratorial thinking and motivated reasoning on belief in election fraud
Abstract
Belief in electoral fraud has received heightened attention due to elite rhetoric and controversial voter identification (ID) laws. Using a two-wave national survey administered before and after the 2012 election, we examine the individual-level correlates of belief in a range of election-related conspiracy theories. Our data show that partisanship affects the timing and content of belief in election-related conspiracy theories, but a general disposition toward conspiratorial thinking strongly influences those beliefs. Support for voter ID laws, in contrast, appears to be driven largely by party identification through elite-mass linkages. Our analysis suggests that belief in election fraud is a common and predictable consequence of both underlying conspiratorial thinking and motivated partisan reasoning.
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Social identities are connected with motives including the need to hold positive beliefs about ingroups and negative beliefs about outgroups.
“Social identities are connected with different motives including the need to hold positive beliefs about ingroups and negative beliefs about outgroups [44].”
From The dark side of social movements: social identity, non-conformity, and the lure of conspiracy theories (2020) · cites this paper as [44]
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van Prooijen, J. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0030 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
How conspiracy theories can stimulate political engagement
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“And individuals prone to conspiratorial thinking tend to perceive intentional “ election rigging ” where, in reality, innocent mistakes or unintended errors occur (Edelson et al., 2017; Norris et al., 2020).”
BackgroundConspiracy Theories and Philosophy
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“As Edelson et al. (2017, 93) pointed out, “[b]elief in election fraud is a common and predictable consequence of both underlying conspiratorial thinking andmotivated partisan reasoning.” Furthermore, van der Linden (2015) and Jolley and Douglas (2014) concluded that exposure to conspiracy theories (e.”
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“Our results also relate to studies focusing on conspiracy theories about elections in the United States, which found that partisanship and elite cues are among the main drivers of conspiracy belief (Edelson et al., 2017; Uscinski et al., 2016).”
ResultConspiracy Theories in Post-Soviet Russia
Yablokov, I. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0024 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Polls, Plots, and Party Politics
Enders, A. M., & Smallpage, S. M. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0020 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Does partisanship promote anti-democratic impulses? Evidence from a survey experiment
Touchton, M. M., Klofstad, C., & Uscinski, J. E. (2020) · Journal of Elections Public Opinion and Parties · doi:10.1080/17457289.2020.1844218 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
“…that Americans – through processes such as partisan motivated reasoning (Lodge and Taber 2013) – are willing to overlook wrongdoing that hurts the opposing party, while condemning that same wrongdoing when it hurts their own (Touchton et al. 2020; Claassen and Ensley 2016; Edelson et al. 2017).”
Background(2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0001 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
The Collective Conspiracy Mentality in Poland
Soral, W., Cichocka, A. K., Bilewicz, M., & Marchlewska, M. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0025 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Mongrain, P. (2023) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/10659129231166679 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
“According to Edelson et al. (2017, 939), ‘ conspiratorial predispositions strongly predict the belief that if one ’ s candidate were to lose, fraud would have been involved ’ .”
BackgroundNegativity bias in the spread of voter fraud conspiracy theory tweets during the 2020 US election
Youngblood, M., Stubbersfield, J., Morin, O., Glassman, R., & Acerbi, A. (2023) · Humanities and Social Sciences Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-023-02106-x · Cited by 24 · see citing works
“Building on allegations of voter fraud made prior to the 2016 election (Cottrell et al., 2018) and years of Republican messaging about electoral fraud and illegal voting (Edelson et al., 2017), these conspiracy theories were widely circulated on social media platforms like Twitter.”
BackgroundHow Conspiracy Theories Spread
DeWitt, D., Atkinson, M., & Wegner, D. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0021 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Enders, A. M., & Thornton, J. R. (2021) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-021-09708-8 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Is this crisis different? Attitudes towards EU fiscal transfers in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic
Haverland, M., van der Veer, R., & Onderčo, M. (2022) · European Union Politics · doi:10.1177/14651165221112988 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
“In this way, individuals are predisposed to see the world as the one where ‘authoritative accounts [are] fabricated and powerful actors [are] conspirators’ (Edelson et al., 2017: 936).”
BackgroundWhat We Mean When We Say “Conspiracy Theory”
Walker, J. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0003 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Conspiracy Theories and Religion
Robertson, D. G. C., & Dyrendal, A. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0028 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Reid, J. C., Brown, S. J., & Dmello, J. R. (2023) · Criminal Justice Review · doi:10.1177/07340168231190673 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
“Edelson et al. (2017) found that increased trust negatively correlates with election fraud beliefs.”
BackgroundPolitical tolerance in Europe: The role of conspiratorial thinking and cosmopolitanism
Stoeckel, F., & Ceka, B. (2022) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12527 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Wood, M. J., & Douglas, K. M. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0016 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Eye of the Beholder: Partisanship, Identity, and the Politics of Sexual Harassment
Craig, S. C., & Cossette, P. S. (2020) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-020-09631-4 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Public Perceptions of State Court Impartiality and Court Legitimacy in an Era of Partisan Politics
Barwick, C. M., & Dawkins, R. (2019) · State Politics & Policy Quarterly · doi:10.1177/1532440019883979 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“…victim to both political misinformation (Nyhan and Riefler 2010) and conspiracy theories (Miller, Saunders, and Farhart 2016) when they conform to their prior beliefs; and they are even more likely to believe accusations of electoral fraud when their preferred candidate loses (Edelson et al. 2017).”
BackgroundA Pandemic of Misbelief: How Beliefs Promote or Undermine COVID-19 Mitigation
Vitriol, J. A., & Marsh, J. K. (2021) · Frontiers in Political Science · doi:10.3389/fpos.2021.648082 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Vail, K. E. I., Harvell-Bowman, L. A., Lockett, M., Pyszczynski, T., & Gilmore, G. (2022) · Motivation and Emotion · doi:10.1007/s11031-022-09983-w · Cited by 13 · see citing works
“One notable prior study (Edelson et al., 2017), for example, involved a two-wave survey administered before and after the 2012 US Presidential Election, contested between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.”
BackgroundDawkins, R., & Hanson, A. (2022) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-022-09834-x · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“…to bipartisan cooperation and successful collective action—a cornerstone of functional democratic government—but is showing signs of eroding faith in this country’s core political and electoral institutions (Bartels, 2020; Barwick & Dawkins, 2020; Edelson et al., 2017; Graham & Svolik, 2020).”
Kerr, N., Krönke, M., & Wahman, M. (2024) · Public Opinion Quarterly · doi:10.1093/poq/nfae030 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“Multiple studies in authoritarian and democratic settings alike have found that partisan winners are more likely than partisan losers to embrace elections as free and fair (e.g., Moehler 2009; Moehler and Lindberg 2009; Edelson et al. 2017; Levy 2021).”
Left–right political orientations are not systematically related to conspiracism
Enders, A. M., Klofstad, C., Littrell, S., Miller, J. M., Theocharis, Y., Uscinski, J. E., & Zilinsky, J. (2024) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.13017 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“…theories about efforts to rig future elections (Enders, Uscinski, Klofstad, Premaratne, et al., 2021); however, after elections, it is primarily the losing partisan/ ideological groups that tend to believe conspiracy theories about the role of fraud (Edelson et al., 2017; Imhoff et al., 2022).”
Sternisko, A., Cichocka, A. K., & Bavel, J. J. V. (2020) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/wvqes · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“Once President Obama was re-elected, however, Republicans were more likely to believe that electoral fraud had occurred [45].”
BackgroundConspiratorial thinking and foreign policy views: evidence from Central Europe
Onderčo, M., & Stoeckel, F. (2020) · Journal of Elections Public Opinion and Parties · doi:10.1080/17457289.2020.1814309 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
“JOURNAL OF ELECTIONS, PUBLIC OPINION AND PARTIES 3 as conspirators” (Edelson et al. 2017, 936).”
BackgroundSame scandal, different interpretations: politics of corruption, anger, and partisan bias in Mexico
Cornejo, R. C. (2023) · Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties · doi:10.1080/17457289.2022.2120487 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
“Given voters ’ tendency to develop an in-group/out-group identity (Tajfel 1981), polarized partisans resort to motivated reasoning to view their party as acting in good intentions (Edelson et al. 2017) and others as acting to immoral ends (Miller, Saunders, and Farhart 2016).”
BackgroundConspiracy theories explained by a cheating detection mechanism
Aubert-Teillaud, B., & Vaidis, D. C. (2023) · Social & Personality Psychology Compass · doi:10.1111/spc3.12876 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Framing the Opioid Crisis: Do Racial Frames Shape Beliefs of Whites Losing Ground?
Gollust, S. E., & Miller, J. M. (2019) · Journal of Health Politics Policy and Law · doi:10.1215/03616878-8004874 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Atkinson, M., & DeWitt, D. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0008 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Who knowingly shares false political information online?
Littrell, S., Klofstad, C., Diekman, A. B., Funchion, J., Murthi, M. N., Premaratne, K., Seelig, M. I., Verdear, D., Wuchty, S., & Uscinski, J. E. (2023) · Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review · doi:10.37016/mr-2020-121 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“Conspiracy Thinking (Edelson et al., 2017) Here are some ideas that some people agree with, and others disagree with.”
BackgroundInfluentialAccess or Experience? Determinants of Distrust in US Elections
Freeder, S., & Shino, E. (2023) · American Politics Research · doi:10.1177/1532673x231220921 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“…research has suggested that conser-vatives are more prone to conspiratorial thinking, both in response to speci fi c events and as a general worldview (Edelson et al., 2017; Van der Linden and Jost 2021), which may generally predispose them more towards election distrust, towards taking action…”
BackgroundMcKenzie-McHarg, A. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0004 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Multiple meanings? The link between partisanship and definitions of voter fraud
Sheagley, G., & Udani, A. (2020) · Electoral Studies · doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102244 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
The socio-psychological predictors of support for post-truth collective action
Mashuri, A., Putra, I. E., Kavanagh, C., Zaduqisti, E., Sukmawati, F., Sakdiah, H., & Selviana, S. (2021) · Journal of Social Psychology · doi:10.1080/00224545.2021.1935678 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
“Relatedly, Edelson et al. (2017) found that conspiratorial thinking increased people’s belief in fake news about election fraud and, in a similar vein, Halpern et al. (2019) found that among a sample of Chileans with internet access, conspiratorial thinking increased belief in and willingness to…”
BackgroundMedia Marginalization of Racial Minorities
Orr, M., & Husting, G. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0005 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Tam, L., & Kim, S. (2023) · Public Relations Review · doi:10.1016/j.pubrev.2023.102354 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
On the Democratic Problem of Conspiracy Politics
Moore, A. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0007 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Conspiracy Beliefs and Perceptions of Electoral Integrity: Cross-National Evidence from 29 Countries
Schnaudt, C. (2024) · Public Opinion Quarterly · doi:10.1093/poq/nfae027 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
“The Big Lie”: How Fact Checking Influences Support for Insurrection
Painter, D. L., & Fernandes, J. (2022) · American Behavioral Scientist · doi:10.1177/00027642221103179 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
“…’ s legitimacy than did Republican and pro-Trump participants, which aligns with research indicating partisans supporting election winners report higher legitimacy levels than do those supporting electoral losers (Anderson et al., 2007; Anderson & Guillory, 1997; Edelson et al., 2017; Keele, 2008).”
BackgroundResultBordeleau, J.-N. (2023) · International Political Science Abstracts · doi:10.1177/00208345231157664
“The “Big Lie” conspiracy theory—which posits that the 2020 US Presidential Election was ‘stolen’ and that Donald Trump is the rightful winner—is a great example of the utilization of conspiracy theories to account for political losses (Norris et al., 2020; Enders et al., 2022; Edelson et al., 2017).”
Relihan, D. P., Holman, E. A., Garfin, D. R., Ditto, P. H., & Silver, R. C. (2023) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.12894 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Election integrity across Europe: who thinks elections are held fairly and why?
Goldberg, A. C., & Plescia, C. (2024) · European Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s1755773924000055 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Conspiratorial thinking in the Latino community on the 2020 election
Cortina, J., & Rottinghaus, B. (2022) · Research & Politics · doi:10.1177/20531680221083535 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
“In particular, older Latinos should be more likely to believe conspiracy theories if exposed to social media, consistent with other findings (Edelson et al., 2017).”
ResultDilemmas of Distrust: Conspiracy Beliefs, Elite Rhetoric, and Motivated Reasoning
Radnitz, S. (2021) · Political research quarterly · doi:10.1177/10659129211034558 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Rossini, P., Mont’Alverne, C., & Kalogeropoulos, A. (2023) · Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review · doi:10.37016/mr-2020-15 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Can Elite Allegations of Election Fraud Demobilize Supporters?
Fraga, B. L., Peskowitz, Z., & Szewczyk, J. (2024) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-024-09952-8 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Conspiracy Theories in U.S. History
Olmstead, K. S. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0019 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Suryandari, N. N. A., Yadnyana, I. K., Ariyanto, D., & Erawati, N. M. A. (2023) · Banks and Bank Systems · doi:10.21511/bbs.18(4).2023.16 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Cornejo, R. C. (2024) · Latin American Research Review · doi:10.1017/lar.2024.11 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
“Since evidence of electoral fraud is normally hidden and fraud is typically accomplished by the machinations of powerful groups, the lack of evidence demonstrates the fraud — it shows just how widespread and concealed it really is (Edelson et al. 2017).”
InfluentialLewandowsky, S. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0010 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
The Societal Impacts of Covid-19: A Transnational Perspective
Bozkurt, V., Dawes, G. D., Gülerce, H., & Westenbroek, P. (2021) · Istanbul University Press eBooks · doi:10.26650/b/ss49.2021.006 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Hajdúková, T. (2024) · Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies · doi:10.36941/ajis-2024-0002 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
“As (Becker, J. 2021), (Edelson et al, 2017) and (Ivan č ík, R., Andrassy.”
Thomas, E. F., O'Donnell, A. W., Osborne, D., Bird, L. H., Yip, L., Buonaiuto, E., Lizzio‐Wilson, M., Skitka, L. J., & Wenzel, M. (2025) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.13075 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
“Research on election conspiracy beliefs more specifically shows that while motivated partisan reasoning is a factor, general conspiracy thinking remains a significant predictor even when partisanship is controlled for (Edelson et al., 2017; Enders et al., 2021).”
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization?
Gaudette, J., Hill, S. J., Kousser, T. B., Lockhart, M., & Romero, M. (2025) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123424000681 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Collective Narcissism and Perceptions of the (Il)legitimacy of the 2020 US Election
Federico, C. M., Farhart, C. E., Vitriol, J. A., & de Zavala, A. G. (2022) · The Forum · doi:10.1515/for-2022-2046 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
“…on conspiratorial theories about election fraud, which connects belief in the latter (on the right, in this case) to political loss (e.g., Albertson and Guiler 2020; Berlinski et al. 2021; Edelson et al. 2017; Enders et al. 2021; Miller, Farhart, and Saunders 2018; Uscinski and Parent 2014).”
Exclusionary Citizenship: Public Punitiveness and Support for Voting Restrictions
Chouhy, C., Lehmann, P. S., & Singer, A. J. (2022) · Justice quarterly · doi:10.1080/07418825.2022.2111324 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
“…about election fraud have been found to be, at least in part, a driver of support for voter ID legislation (e.g., Ansolabehere & Persily, 2008; Edelson et al., 2017; Kane, 2017), but these worries are themselves associated with anti-Black and antiimmigrant sentiments (Appleby & Federico,…”
BackgroundThe Conspiratorial Style in Turkish Politics
Nefes, T. S. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0026 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
The Psychology and Neuroscience of Partisanship
Harris, E., Pärnamets, P., Sternisko, A., Robertson, C. E., & Bavel, J. J. V. (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108779104.005 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Conspiracy Thinking, Tolerance, and Democracy
Smallpage, S. M. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0012 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Porshnev, A., Miltsov, A., Lokot, T., & Koltsova, O. Y. (2021) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-77626-8_23 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Lyons, B. A., & Workman, K. (2022) · Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review · doi:10.37016/mr-2020-99 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
“Group-centric perceptions of electoral integrity are another consistent finding (Appleby & Federico, 2017; Edelson et al., 2017; Sances & Stewart, 2015; Wilson & Brewer, 2013).”
Background
- Authors
- Edelson, J., Alduncin, A., Krewson, C., Sieja, J. A., & Uscinski, J. E.
- Affiliations
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison, USA
- St. Lawrence University (US)
- University of Miami (US)
- Corresponding author
- Uscinski, Joseph E.
- Venue
- Political Research Quarterly
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2017-07-31
- Volume
- 70
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 933-946
- ISSN
- 1065-9129 (ISSN-L)
- 1938-274X
- OpenAlex
- W2739660896
- Cited by
- 198
- References
- 70
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 34 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 38
- FWCI
- 39.21
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Political Research Quarterly (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Misinformation and Its Impacts
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Benford’s Law and Fraud Detection
- Keywords
- conspiracy beliefs, motivated reasoning, party identification, voter ID laws, 2012 elections
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