The rules of the game called psychological science
Open accessAbstract
If science were a game, a dominant rule would probably be to collect results that are statistically significant. Several reviews of the psychological literature have shown that around 96% of papers involving the use of null hypothesis significance testing report significant outcomes for their main results but that the typical studies are insufficiently powerful for such a track record. We explain this paradox by showing that the use of several small underpowered samples often represents a more efficient research strategy (in terms of finding p < .05) than does the use of one larger (more powerful) sample. Publication bias and the most efficient strategy lead to inflated effects and high rates of false positives, especially when researchers also resorted to questionable research practices, such as adding participants after intermediate testing. We provide simulations that highlight the severity of such biases in meta-analyses. We consider 13 meta-analyses covering 281 primary studies in various fields of psychology and find indications of biases and/or an excess of significant results in seven. These results highlight the need for sufficiently powerful replications and changes in journal policies.
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The publication culture promotes novel, and often surprising, findings and this motivates researchers to postulate improbable hypotheses.
“Also, the publication culture promotes novel, and often surprising, findings and this will motivate researchers to postulate improbable hypotheses (20).”
From Statistical and Methodological Considerations for the Interpretation of Intranasal Oxytocin Studies (2016) · cites this paper as [20]
From a statistical point of view this problem might not be any more serious for this field than other domains of psychology or neuroscience in general.
“From a statistical point of view this problem might not be any more serious for this field than other domains of psychology (20, 21, 31) or neuroscience in general (14).”
From Statistical and Methodological Considerations for the Interpretation of Intranasal Oxytocin Studies (2016) · cites this paper as [20]
Publication bias and researcher degrees of freedom are pervasive problems in psychological science, so unadjusted effect sizes are likely overestimated.
“Given that publication bias and researcher degrees of freedom are understood to be pervasive problems in psychological science (Bakker et al., 2012; Franco et al., 2014, 2016; Hesse, 2018; John et al., 2012), unadjusted effect sizes are likely to be overestimated (Kvarven et al., 2020).”
From Do Salient Social Norms Moderate Mortality Salience Effects? A (Challenging) Meta-Analysis of Terror Management Studies (2023) · cites this paper as Bakker et al., 2012
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“From a statistical point of view this problem might not be any more serious for this field than other domains of psychology (20, 21, 31) or neuroscience in general (14).”
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Are bilingual advantages dependent upon specific tasks or specific bilingual experiences?
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A Short (Personal) Future History of Revolution 2.0
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The Chrysalis Effect: How Ugly Initial Results Metamorphosize Into Beautiful Articles
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Meaningful associations in the adolescent brain cognitive development study
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Exploratory data analysis as a foundation of inductive research
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Mapping brain asymmetry in health and disease through the ENIGMA consortium
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Slice-to-volume medical image registration: A survey
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- Authors
- Bakker, M., van Dijk, A., & Wicherts, J. M.
- Affiliations
- University of Amsterdam (NL)
- University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Tilburg University (NL)
- Venue
- Perspectives on Psychological Science
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2012-11
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 543-554
- ISSN
- 1745-6916 (ISSN-L)
- 1745-6924
- OpenAlex
- W2157668596
- Cited by
- 800
- References
- 75
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 39 · 2023: 50 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 100 · 2020: 63 · 2019: 82 · 2018: 87 · 2017: 88 · 2016: 56 · 2015: 59 · 2014: 52 · 2013: 19 · 2012: 5
- FWCI
- 49.25
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Perspectives on Psychological Science (publishedVersion)
- Research portal (Tilburg University) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- UvA-DARE (University of Amsterdam) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (016-125-385)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Academic integrity and plagiarism
- Keywords
- null hypothesis significance testing, statistical power, publication bias, questionable research practices, false positives, meta-analysis, replication, sample size, p-values, research integrity, editorial policy
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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