Cited by 800Meta-analysis and systematic reviewsPsychology Research and BibliometricsAcademic integrity and plagiarism

The rules of the game called psychological science

Open access
Bakker, Marjan, van Dijk, Annette, Wicherts, Jelte M.·2012·Perspectives on Psychological Science

Abstract

If science were a game, a dominant rule would probably be to collect results that are statistically significant. Several reviews of the psychological literature have shown that around 96% of papers involving the use of null hypothesis significance testing report significant outcomes for their main results but that the typical studies are insufficiently powerful for such a track record. We explain this paradox by showing that the use of several small underpowered samples often represents a more efficient research strategy (in terms of finding p < .05) than does the use of one larger (more powerful) sample. Publication bias and the most efficient strategy lead to inflated effects and high rates of false positives, especially when researchers also resorted to questionable research practices, such as adding participants after intermediate testing. We provide simulations that highlight the severity of such biases in meta-analyses. We consider 13 meta-analyses covering 281 primary studies in various fields of psychology and find indications of biases and/or an excess of significant results in seven. These results highlight the need for sufficiently powerful replications and changes in journal policies.

Integrity signals

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Crossref · 10.1177/1745691612459060

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75 of 75 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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  • The publication culture promotes novel, and often surprising, findings and this motivates researchers to postulate improbable hypotheses.

    “Also, the publication culture promotes novel, and often surprising, findings and this will motivate researchers to postulate improbable hypotheses (20).”
  • From a statistical point of view this problem might not be any more serious for this field than other domains of psychology or neuroscience in general.

    “From a statistical point of view this problem might not be any more serious for this field than other domains of psychology (20, 21, 31) or neuroscience in general (14).”
  • Publication bias and researcher degrees of freedom are pervasive problems in psychological science, so unadjusted effect sizes are likely overestimated.

    “Given that publication bias and researcher degrees of freedom are understood to be pervasive problems in psychological science (Bakker et al., 2012; Franco et al., 2014, 2016; Hesse, 2018; John et al., 2012), unadjusted effect sizes are likely to be overestimated (Kvarven et al., 2020).”

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Authors
Bakker, M., van Dijk, A., & Wicherts, J. M.
Affiliations
  • University of Amsterdam (NL)
  • University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
  • Tilburg University (NL)
Venue
Perspectives on Psychological Science
Published
2012-11
Volume
7
Issue
6
Pages
543-554
ISSN
  • 1745-6916 (ISSN-L)
  • 1745-6924
OpenAlex
W2157668596
Cited by
800
References
75
Citations by year
2026: 14 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 39 · 2023: 50 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 100 · 2020: 63 · 2019: 82 · 2018: 87 · 2017: 88 · 2016: 56 · 2015: 59 · 2014: 52 · 2013: 19 · 2012: 5
FWCI
49.25
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Perspectives on Psychological Science (publishedVersion)
  • Research portal (Tilburg University) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
  • UvA-DARE (University of Amsterdam) (submittedVersion)
Funders
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (016-125-385)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
  • Social Sciences › Safety Research › Academic integrity and plagiarism
Keywords
null hypothesis significance testing, statistical power, publication bias, questionable research practices, false positives, meta-analysis, replication, sample size, p-values, research integrity, editorial policy

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