The DOI matches its Crossref record; 191 of the 192 references it cites were found in a registry or an index, and 1 are not checked yet; none of the 169 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.
Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
Abstract. Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1 °C relative to the 1880–1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3 °C. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior (Eemian) interglacial period, when sea level reached 6–9 m higher than today. Further, Earth is out of energy balance with present atmospheric composition, implying that more warming is in the pipeline, and we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated markedly in the past decade. The rapidity of ice sheet and sea level response to global temperature is difficult to predict, but is dependent on the magnitude of warming. Targets for limiting global warming thus, at minimum, should aim to avoid leaving global temperature at Eemian or higher levels for centuries. Such targets now require negative emissions, i.e., extraction of CO2 from the air. If phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, improved agricultural and forestry practices, including reforestation and steps to improve soil fertility and increase its carbon content, may provide much of the necessary CO2 extraction. In that case, the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible climate impacts could be minimized. In contrast, continued high fossil fuel emissions today place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO2 extraction if they are to limit climate change and its consequences. Proposed methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or air capture of CO2 have minimal estimated costs of USD 89–535 trillion this century and also have large risks and uncertain feasibility. Continued high fossil fuel emissions unarguably sentences young people to either a massive, implausible cleanup or growing deleterious climate impacts or both.
Checked 2026-10-10 · 1 reference not checked yet
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Global temperature has risen out of the Holocene range and is now comparable to the Eemian, when sea level was 6–9 m higher, while Earth remains out of energy balance and GHG forcing growth has accelerated. Limiting warming to 1.5 °C or returning CO₂ to 350 ppm now requires negative CO₂ emissions; if high fossil fuel emissions continue, young people face massive technological CO₂ extraction with estimated costs of USD 89–535 trillion this century.
Key findings
- Global temperature excluding short-term variability exceeds +1 °C relative to the 1880–1920 mean, and annual 2016 was almost +1.3 °C; Earth is now as warm as the Eemian, when sea level reached 6–9 m higher than today.
- Earth is out of energy balance: upper-2000 m ocean heat uptake averaged 0.7 W m⁻² over 2005–2015, and the total imbalance is +0.75 ± 0.25 W m⁻² averaged over the solar cycle.
- GHG climate forcing growth has accelerated: the annual increment increased by more than 20 % in just the past 5 years; atmospheric CO₂ growth rose from less than 1 ppm yr⁻¹ 50 years ago to more than 2 ppm yr⁻¹ today, and CH₄ growth averaged 10 ppb yr⁻¹ in 2014–2016.
- Negative emissions are required. To reach 350 ppm CO₂ in 2100, scenarios with −6 and −3 % yr⁻¹ emission reductions require 153 and 237 PgC extraction, while constant emissions and +2 % yr⁻¹ growth require 695 and 1630 PgC; technological extraction costs are estimated at USD 89–535 trillion this century for continued high emissions.
Methods
- The paper combines modern GISTEMP instrumental temperature data, Holocene and Eemian paleoclimate reconstructions, Argo-era ocean heat content for 2005–2015, and observed CO₂/CH₄ records.
- It uses a simple Green’s function climate model with equilibrium fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 0.75 °C (W m⁻²)⁻¹ (3 °C for 2 × CO₂), the Bern carbon cycle model, and emission scenarios of −6, −3, constant, and +2 % yr⁻¹, plus RCP scenarios and CO₂-extraction cases targeting 350 or 450 ppm in 2100.
- The analysis is presented as transparent to non-scientists, with tabulated forcings and defining data so calculations can be repeated with alternative choices.
Limitations
- The paper states that precise specification of slow-feedback magnitude and timescales is not possible, and that its climate calculations include only fast feedbacks; this limitation may soon become important as warming exceeds the Holocene range.
- It states important uncertainties in climate sensitivity, ocean mixing and dynamics, aerosol forcing, and CO₂ extraction and mitigation cost estimates; it also notes that large-scale negative emissions have uncertain feasibility and large risks.
- Evident from the text: the conclusions depend on a simple climate/carbon-cycle model and assumed sensitivity, and the paper does not estimate the cost of CO₂ extraction via improved agricultural and forestry practices.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
128 Not checked yet · 72 Own interpretation · 46 No basis given · 45 Own result · 4 Own method
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The period since 1970 is the time with high growth rate of GHG climate forcing, which has been maintained at approximately +0.4 W m -2 decade -1”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 2.1 Modern temperature
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated markedly in the past decade”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Today, global fossil fuel emissions continue at rates that make these targets increasingly improbable”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 1 Introduction
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The present global warming rate, based on a linear fit for 1970-present (dashed line in Fig. 2b) is +0.18 • C per decade.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 2.1 Modern temperature
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the recent warming is sufficient to remove the illusion of a hiatus of global surface warming after the 1997-1998 El Niño”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 2.1 Modern temperature
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“causing Earth to be substantially out of energy balance (Cheng et al., 2017)”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 2.1 Modern temperature
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Cheng et al., 2017
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Global temperature in 2014-2016 reached successive record high levels for the period of instrumental data”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 2.1 Modern temperature
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1 • C relative to the 1880-1920 mean”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Abstract
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“global temperature has risen above the centennially smoothed Holocene range.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 2.2 Temperature during current and prior interglacial periods
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Probably not a substantial claim. 49
- It may state two separate claims as one. 98
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3 • C”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Abstract
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“For all well-mixed (long-lived) GHGs we obtain 3.03 W m -2 , which is within the IPCC range 2.83 ± 0.29 W m -2 .”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 3 Global climate forcings and Earth's energy imbalance
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Myhre et al., 2013
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Recent global temperature anomalies peaked in February 2016, so as expected the CO 2 growth rate has been declining for the past several months (Fig. 6a).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.2 Slow climate feedbacks
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The large oscillations of annual growth are correlated with global temperature and with the El Niño/La Niña cycle, as discussed in Appendix A8.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.2 Slow climate feedbacks
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“with global mean CO 2 now exceeding 400 ppm (Betts et al., 2016).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.2 Slow climate feedbacks
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Betts et al., 2016
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The growth of GHG climate forcing peaked at ∼ 0.05 W m -2 yr -1 (5 W m -2 century -1 ) in 1978-1988, then falling to a level 10-25 % below IPCC SRES (2000) scenarios during the first decade of the 21st century (Fig. 8a).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 6 GHG climate forcing growth rates and emission scenarios
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites IPCC SRES (2000)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Note the similarity of RCP2.6 with -3 % yr -1 , RCP4.5 with constant emissions, and RCP8.5 with +2 % yr -1 (Fig. 9).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 6 GHG climate forcing growth rates and emission scenarios
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, these scenarios still yield warming more than 1.5 • C above the preindustrial level (more than 1 • C above the early Holocene maximum).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 8 Simulations of global temperature change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“A commonly used 20-year saturation time (IPCC, 2006) would yield 14 PgC soil carbon storage, while an optimistic 50-year saturation time would yield 35 PgC.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.1 Estimated cost of CO 2 extraction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites IPCC, 2006
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The -6 and -3 % yr -1 scenarios leave a requirement to extract 153 and 237 PgC from the air during this century.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.1 Estimated cost of CO 2 extraction
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The most important conclusion from Fig. 12a is the proximity of results for the cases with emission reductions of 6 and 3 % yr -1 .”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 8 Simulations of global temperature change
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Constant emission and +2 % yr emission scenarios yield extraction requirements of 695 and 1630 PgC to reach 350 ppm CO 2 in 2100.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.1 Estimated cost of CO 2 extraction
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“for example, the case with constant emissions that required extraction of 695 PgC during 2020-2100 required further extraction of ∼ 900 PgC during 2100-2200.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 8 Simulations of global temperature change
plaindirectSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This leads to mean stratospheric aerosol climate forcing of -0.3 W m -2 for remainder of the 21st century, similar to the mean stratospheric aerosol forcing for 1850-2015 (Table A10).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 8 Simulations of global temperature change
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Given a CO 2 extraction cost of USD 150-350 (tC) -1 for intensive negative emission technologies (Fig. 3f of Smith et al., 2016), the 53 PgC additional extraction required for the scenario with 6 % yr -1 emission reduction would cost USD 8-18.5 trillion, thus USD 100-230 billion per year if spread uniformly over 80 years.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.1 Estimated cost of CO 2 extraction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Smith et al., 2016
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: 100 PgC can be stored via improved agricultural and forestry practices.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The scenarios that reduce CO 2 to 350 ppm succeed in getting temperature back close to the Holocene maximum by 2100 (Fig. 12b), but they require extractions of atmospheric CO 2 that range from 153 PgC in the scenario with 6 % yr -1 emission reductions to 1630 PgC in the scenario with +2 % yr -1 emission growth.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 8 Simulations of global temperature change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For cost estimates, we first consider restoration of airborne CO 2 to 350 ppm in 2100 (Fig. 10b), which would keep global warming below 1.5 • C and bring global temperature back close to the Holocene maximum by the end of the century (Fig. 12b).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.1 Estimated cost of CO 2 extraction
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, end-of-century temperature still rises 0.5 • C or more above the prior Holocene maximum with consequences for slow feedbacks that are difficult to foresee.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 8 Simulations of global temperature change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Global temperature is now far above its range during the preindustrial Holocene, attaining at least the warmth of the Eemian period, when sea level reached +6-9 m relative to today.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 11 Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“We find TCRE = 1.54 • C per 1000 PgC at 2100 with constant emissions (which yields cumulative emissions of 1180 PgC at 2100, which is near the midpoint of the range assessed by IPCC, i.e., 0.8 to 2.5 • C per 1000 PgC (IPCC, 2013).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A2 Transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions (TCRE)
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites IPCC, 2013
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Surface air temperature change over land is about twice SST change (Fig. A3a), and thus global temperature change is 1.3 times larger than the SST change.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A3 Observed temperature data and analysis method
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The annual increment in GHG climate forcing is growing, not declining.The increase is more than 20 % in just the past 5 years (Fig. 8).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.2 Mitigation alternative
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Maxima of the CO 2 growth rate lag global temperature maxima by 7-8 months (Fig. 6b) and lag Niño3.4 (latitudes 5 • N-5 • S, longitudes 120-170 • W) temperature by ∼ 10 months.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A8 CO 2 and CH 4 growth rates
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The transient climate response (TCR), defined as the global warming at year 70 in response to a 1 % yr -1 CO 2 increase, for our simple Green's function climate model is 1.89 • C with energy imbalance of 1.52 W m -2 at that point; this TCR is in the middle of the range reported in the IPCC AR5 report (IPCC, 2013).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A2 Transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions (TCRE)
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites IPCC, 2013
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, the GHG climate forcing is not only still growing, the growth rate is actually accelerating, as shown in Fig. 14, which is extracted from data in our Fig. 8.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 11 Discussion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels in 2015 were only slightly higher than in 2014 (Fig. A1).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Additional information
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“China is now the largest source of fossil fuel emissions, followed by the US and India, but on a per capita historical basis the US is 10 times more accountable than China and 25 times more accountable than India for the increase in atmospheric CO 2 above its preindustrial level (Hansen and Sato, 2016).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Additional information
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Monthly sunspot numbers support the conclusion that the solar irradiance in the current solar cycle is significantly lower than in the three preceding solar cycles.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A11 Solar irradiance
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Averaged over Earth's surface the absorbed solar energy is ∼ 240 W m -2 , so the full amplitude of the measured solar variability is ∼ 0.25 W m -2 .”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A13 Non-CO 2 GHGs
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Emissions are growing rapidly in emerging economies; while growth slowed in China in the past 2 years, emissions remain high (Fig. 1).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Additional information
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Emissions were almost flat from 2014 to 2015, due to economic slowdown and increased use of low-carbon energies, but, even if a peak in global emissions is near, substantial decline of emissions is dependent on acceleration in the transformation of energy production and use (Jackson et al., 2016).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A9 CO 2 emissions in historical period
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Jackson et al., 2016
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Continued high fossil fuel emissions unarguably sentences young people to either a massive, implausible cleanup or growing deleterious climate impacts or both.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Abstract
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Slow feedbacks include ice sheet disintegration and thus sea level rise, which is probably the most threatening climate impact, and release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) via such mechanisms as thawing tundra and loss of soil carbon.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 1 Introduction
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Holocene, over 11 700 years in duration, had relatively stable climate, prior to the remarkable warming in the past half century.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 2 Global temperature change
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The formal 95 % confidence bounds to Holocene temperature (Marcott et al., 2013) are ±0.25 • C (blue shading in Fig. 3b), but total uncertainty is larger.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 2.2 Temperature during current and prior interglacial periods
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Marcott et al., 2013
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both the 1.5 • C and 350 ppm targets require rapid phasedown of fossil fuel emissions.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 1 Introduction
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Earth is out of energy balance with present atmospheric composition, implying that more warming is in the pipeline”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible climate impacts could be minimized.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Abstract
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, improved agricultural and forestry practices, including reforestation and steps to improve soil fertility and increase its carbon content, may provide much of the necessary CO 2 extraction.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Abstract
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the warming rate can accelerate or decelerate, depending on policies that affect GHG emissions, developing climate feedbacks, and other factors”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 2.1 Modern temperature
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“On a per capita historical basis the US is 10 times more accountable than China and 25 times more accountable than India for the increase in atmospheric CO 2 above its preindustrial level (Hansen and Sato, 2016).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 1 Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hansen and Sato, 2016
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“the 12-month running mean global temperature is more informative and removes monthly”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 2.1 Modern temperature
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hansen et al., 2010
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Abstract
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The rapidity of ice sheet and sea level response to global temperature is difficult to predict, but is dependent on the magnitude of warming.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Abstract
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The slow feedbacks, whose timescales depend on how strongly the climate system is being forced, will substantially determine the magnitude of climate impacts and affect how difficult the task of stabilizing climate will be.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 2 Global temperature change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At the rate of 0.18 • C decade -1 the linear trend line of global temperature will reach +1.5 • C in about 2040 and +2 • C in the late 2060s.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 2.1 Modern temperature
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Hoffman et al. (2017) report the maximum Eemian annual global SST as +0.5 ± 0.3 • C relative to 1870-1889, which is +0.65 • C relative to 1880-1920.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > McKay et al. (2011) estimated peak
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hoffman et al., 2017
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Estimated forcings (Fig. 4), an update of Fig. 28b of Hansen et al. (2005), are similar to those of Myhre et al. (2013) in the most recent IPCC report (IPCC, 2013).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 3 Global climate forcings and Earth's energy imbalance
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hansen et al., 2005
- Not checked yetcites Myhre et al., 2013
- Not checked yetcites IPCC, 2013
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Clark and Huybers (2009) and Turney and Jones (2010) estimated global temperature in the Eemian as 1.5-2 • C warmer than the Holocene”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > McKay et al. (2011) estimated peak
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Clark and Huybers, 2009
- Not checked yetcites Turney and Jones, 2010
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Bakker and Renssen (2014) point out two biases that may cause this range to be an overestimate.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > McKay et al. (2011) estimated peak
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Bakker and Renssen, 2014
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Global warming is already having substantial adverse climate impacts (IPCC, 2014), including extreme events (NAS, 2016).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 2.2 Temperature during current and prior interglacial periods
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites IPCC, 2014
- Not checked yetcites NAS, 2016
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Such a high rate of sea level rise, which is 3 m per millennium, far exceeds the prior rate of sea level rise in the last six millennia of the Holocene”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 2.2 Temperature during current and prior interglacial periods
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Lambeck et al., 2014
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Methane release from thawing permafrost and methane hydrates is another potential feedback, for example, but the magnitude and timescale of this is unclear”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > McKay et al. (2011) estimated peak
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites O'Connor et al., 2010
- Not checked yetcites Quiquet et al., 2015
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“There was a small increase in Greenland ice sheet mass (Larsen et al., 2015), but this was presumably at least balanced by Antarctic ice sheet mass loss (Lambeck et al., 2014).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 2.2 Temperature during current and prior interglacial periods
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Larsen et al., 2015
- Not checked yetcites Lambeck et al., 2014
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Aerosols, fine particles/droplets in the air that cause visible air pollution, both reflect and absorb solar radiation, but reflection of solar energy to space is their dominant effect, so they cause a cooling that partly offsets GHG warming.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 3 Global climate forcings and Earth's energy imbalance
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Uncertainties, discussed by Myhre et al. (2013), are typically 10-15 % for GHG forcings.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 3 Global climate forcings and Earth's energy imbalance
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Myhre et al., 2013
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, 0.95 W m -2 forcing should remain to be responded to -i.e., the expected planetary energy imbalance is 0.95 W m -2 , which is reasonably consistent with the observed 0.75 ± 0.25 W m -2 .”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.1 Fast-feedback climate sensitivity
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Cloud-cover changes, for example, can either amplify or reduce climate change”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4 Climate sensitivity and feedbacks
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Boucher at al., 2013
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Earth's energy imbalance is the portion of the forcing that has not yet been responded to.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 3 Global climate forcings and Earth's energy imbalance
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“A shrinking ice sheet exposes darker ground and warming darkens the ice surface by increasing the area and period with wet ice, thus increasing the ice grain size and increasing the surface concentration of light-absorbing impurities”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.2 Slow climate feedbacks
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Tedesco et al., 2016
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Earth's energy imbalance can be measured by monitoring ocean subsurface temperatures, because almost all excess energy coming into the planet goes into the ocean”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 3 Global climate forcings and Earth's energy imbalance
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites von Schuckmann et al., 2016
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Earth has only partly responded to the human-made increase in GHGs in the air today, the planet must be out of energy balance with the planet gaining energy (via reduced heat radiation to space), and more global warming is”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.1 Fast-feedback climate sensitivity
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The glacial-interglacial timescale is set by the timescale of the weak orbital forcings.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.2 Slow climate feedbacks
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The amount of water vapor in the air increases with temperature, which is an amplifying feedback because water vapor is a very effective greenhouse gas; this is a”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4 Climate sensitivity and feedbacks
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The central result agrees well with the model-based climate sensitivity estimate of 3 • C for 2 × CO 2 (Rohling et al., 2012b), with an uncertainty that is arguably 1 • C or less (Hansen et al., 2013b).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.1 Fast-feedback climate sensitivity
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Rohling et al., 2012b
- Not checked yetcites Hansen et al., 2013b
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“If we instead take the aerosol + surface albedo forcing as -1.5 W m -2 , as estimated by Hansen et al. (2005), the net climate forcing is 2.2 W m -2 and the forcing not responded to is 0.65 W m -2 , which is also within the observational error of Earth's energy imbalance.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.1 Fast-feedback climate sensitivity
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hansen et al., 2005
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Doubled atmospheric CO 2 , a forcing of ∼ 4 W m -2 , is a standard forcing in studies of climate sensitivity.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.1 Fast-feedback climate sensitivity
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“these climate cycles are due to small changes in Earth's orbit and the tilt of its spin axis, which alter the geographical and seasonal distribution of sunlight striking Earth.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.2 Slow climate feedbacks
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The large climate response is a result of two amplifying feedbacks: (1) atmospheric GHGs (mainly CO 2 but accompanied by CH 4 and N 2 O), which increase as Earth warms and decrease as it cools (Ciais et al., 2013), thus amplifying the temperature change, and (2) the size of ice sheets, which shrink as Earth warms and grow as it cools”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.2 Slow climate feedbacks
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Ciais et al., 2013
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“20 000 years ago most of Canada and parts of the US were covered by an ice sheet, and sea level was about 130 m (∼ 400 ft) lower than today.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.2 Slow climate feedbacks
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Charney et al. (1979) concluded that equilibrium sensitivity, i.e., global warming after a time sufficient for the planet to restore energy balance with space, was 3 ± 1.5 • C for 2 × CO 2 or 0.75 • C (W m -2 ) -1 forcing.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.1 Fast-feedback climate sensitivity
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Charney et al., 1979
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Ice sheet size and the atmospheric amount of long-lived GHGs (CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O) under natural conditions change on multi-millennial timescales.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.1 Fast-feedback climate sensitivity
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Large glacial-to-interglacial climate oscillations occur on timescales of tens and hundreds of thousands of years, with atmospheric CO 2 amount and the size of ice sheets (and thus sea level) changing almost synchronously on these timescales”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.2 Slow climate feedbacks
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Masson-Delmotte et al., 2013
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Positive net forcing (Fig. 4) causes Earth to be temporarily out of energy balance, with more energy coming in than going out, which drives slow global warming.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 3 Global climate forcings and Earth's energy imbalance
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The area covered by glaciers and ice sheets is a prime”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4 Climate sensitivity and feedbacks
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Most of the ocean's heat content change occurs in the upper 2000 m (Levitus et al., 2012), which has been well measured since 2005, when the distribution of Argo floats achieved good global coverage”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 3 Global climate forcings and Earth's energy imbalance
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Levitus et al., 2012
- Not checked yetcites von Schuckmann and Le Traon, 2011
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Also, we know that ice sheets did not change significantly in size in that period; there may have been some change in Greenland's albedo and expansion of forests in the Northern Hemisphere (Pearson et al., 2013), but those feedbacks so far have only a small global effect.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 8 Simulations of global temperature change
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Pearson et al., 2013
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Mechanisms that control GHG release as Earth warms, and GHG drawdown as Earth cools, are complex, including many processes that affect the distribution of carbon, among the ocean, atmosphere, and biosphere”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.2 Slow climate feedbacks
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Yu et al., 2016
- Not checked yetcites Ciais et al., 2013
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The GHG feedback on glacial-interglacial timescales is 75-80 % from CO 2 change; N 2 O and CH 4 account for 20-25 %”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.2 Slow climate feedbacks
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Lorius et al., 1990
- Not checked yetcites Hansen et al., 2007
- Not checked yetcites Masson-Delmotte et al., 2013
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“(2) slowdown of CH 4 growth (Fig. 7)”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 6 GHG climate forcing growth rates and emission scenarios
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Rising temperatures increase the rate of CO 2 and CH 4 release from drying soils, thawing permafrost (Schädel et al., 2016;Schuur et al., 2015) and warming continental shelves (Kvenvolden, 1993;Judd et al., 2002), and affect the ocean carbon cycle as noted above.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.2 Slow climate feedbacks
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Schädel et al., 2016
- Not checked yetcites Schuur et al., 2015
- Not checked yetcites Kvenvolden, 1993
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Pollard et al. (2015) found that addition of hydro-fracturing and cliff failure to their ice sheet model not only increased simulated sea level rise from 2 to 17 m in response to 2 • C ocean warming but also accelerated the time for multi-meter change from several centuries to several decades.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.2 Slow climate feedbacks
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Pollard et al. (2015)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The climate calculations in this section include only fastfeedbacks, which is also true for most climate simulations by the scientific community for IPCC (2013).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 8 Simulations of global temperature change
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites IPCC (2013)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, this limitation to fast feedbacks may soon become important; it is only in the past few decades that global temperature rose above the prior Holocene range and only in the past 2 years that it shot far above that range.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 8 Simulations of global temperature change
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Paleoclimate forcing, however, is both weak and very slow, changing on millennial timescales.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 4.2 Slow climate feedbacks
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Fortunately, the convenient dynamic-sink pulse-response function version of the well-tested Bern carbon cycle model (Joos et al., 1996) does a good job of approximating more detailed models, and it produces a good match to observed industrialera atmospheric CO 2 .”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 7 Future CO 2 for assumed emission scenarios
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Joos et al., 1996
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Enhanced weathering via soil amendment with crushed silicate rock is a candidate negative emission technology that also limits coastal ocean acidification as chemical products liberated by weathering increase land-ocean alkalinity flux (Kohler et al., 2010;Taylor et al., 2016).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.1 Estimated cost of CO 2 extraction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kohler et al., 2010
- Not checked yetcites Taylor et al., 2016
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Keith et al. (2006) have argued that, with strong research and development support and industrial-scale pilot projects sustained over decades, it may be possible to achieve costs ∼ USD 200 (tC) -1 , thus comparable to BECCS costs; however, other assessments are higher, reaching USD 1400-3700 (tC) -1 (NAS, 2015a).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.1 Estimated cost of CO 2 extraction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Keith et al. (2006)
- Not checked yetcites NAS, 2015a
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“If two-thirds of global croplands were amended with basalt dust, as much as 1-3 PgC yr -1 might be extracted, depending on application rate (Taylor et al., 2016), but energy costs of mining, grinding and spreading likely reduce this by 10-25 % (Moosdorf et al., 2014).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.1 Estimated cost of CO 2 extraction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Taylor et al., 2016
- Not checked yetcites Moosdorf et al., 2014
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“However, their estimated uncertainty of the cost is ±3 %, i.e., the uncertainty is so large as to encompass GDP gain.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.2 Mitigation alternative
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Stern, 2006
- Not checked yetcites Stern and Taylor, 2007
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Improved practices have local benefits in agricultural yields and forest products and services (Smith et al., 2016), which may help minimize net costs.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9 CO 2 extraction: estimated cost and alternatives
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Smith et al., 2016
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In contrast, proposed technological extraction and storage of CO 2 generally does not have co-benefits and remains unproven at relevant scales (NAS, 2015a).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9 CO 2 extraction: estimated cost and alternatives
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites NAS, 2015a
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Benefits include crop fertilization that increases yield and reduces use and cost of other fertilizers, increasing crop protection from insect herbivores and pathogens thus decreasing pesticide use and cost, neutralizing soil acidification to improve yield, and suppression of GHG (N 2 O and CO 2 ) emissions from soils (Edwards et al., 2017;Kantola et al., 2017).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.1 Estimated cost of CO 2 extraction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Edwards et al., 2017
- Not checked yetcites Kantola et al., 2017
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Against these benefits, we note potential negative impacts of air and water pollution caused by the mining, including downstream environmental consequences if silicates are washed into rivers and the ocean, causing increased turbidity, sedimentation, and pH, with unknown impacts on biodiversity (Edwards et al., 2017).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.1 Estimated cost of CO 2 extraction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Edwards et al., 2017
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Their central estimate was 1 % of gross domestic product (GDP) per year, thus about USD 800 billion per year.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.2 Mitigation alternative
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Stern, 2006
- Not checked yetcites Stern and Taylor, 2007
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“However, first-generation biofuel production and use (which is usually based on edible portions of feedstocks, such as starch) is not inherently carbon-neutral; indeed, it is likely carbon-positive, as has been illustrated in specific quantitative analyses for corn ethanol in the United States (Searchinger et al., 2008;DeCicco et al., 2016).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.1 Estimated cost of CO 2 extraction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Searchinger et al., 2008
- Not checked yetcites DeCicco et al., 2016
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The popular concept of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) requires large areas and high fertilizer and water use, and may compete with other vital land use such as agriculture (Smith, 2016).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.1 Estimated cost of CO 2 extraction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Smith, 2016
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Direct air capture has more limited area and water needs than BECCS and no fertilizer requirement, but it has high energy use, has not been demonstrated at scale, and cost estimates exceed those of BECCS (Socolow et al., 2011;Smith et al., 2016).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.1 Estimated cost of CO 2 extraction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Socolow et al., 2011
- Not checked yetcites Smith et al., 2016
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Simply put, the burden placed on young people and future generations may become too heavy to bear.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 11 Discussion
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Absolute reduction of non-CO 2 gases is thus helpful but does not alter the requirement for rapid fossil fuel emission reductions.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.2 Mitigation alternative
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Renewable energy costs have fallen rapidly in the past 2-3 decades with the help of government subsidies, especially renewable portfolio standards that require utilities to achieve a specified fraction of their power from renewable sources.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.2 Mitigation alternative
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Stratospheric aerosols, for example, could deplete stratospheric ozone and/or modify climate and precipitation patterns in ways that are difficult to predict with confidence, while doing nothing to alleviate ocean acidification caused by rising CO 2”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 10.2 Aerosols and purposeful climate intervention
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Hsu (2011) and Ackerman and Stanton (2012) argue that economies are more efficient if the price of fossil fuels better reflects costs to society, and thus GDP gain is likely with an increasing carbon price.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.2 Mitigation alternative
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hsu (2011)
- Not checked yetcites Ackerman and Stanton (2012)
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we thus infer an urgent need for (1) rapid phasedown of fossil fuel emissions, (2) actions that draw down atmospheric CO 2 , and (3) actions that, at minimum, eliminate net growth of non-CO 2 climate forcings.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 11 Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Global energy consumption in 2015 was 12.9 Gtoe 14”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.2 Mitigation alternative
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites BP, 2016
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Mankiw (2009) similarly suggests that a revenue-neutral carbon tax is economically beneficial.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.2 Mitigation alternative
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Mankiw (2009)
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While we reject 1.5 • C as a safe target -it is likely warmer than the Eemian and far above the Holocene range”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.2 Mitigation alternative
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most coal use, and its increases, is in Asia, especially China and India.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.2 Mitigation alternative
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In addition to CO 2 emission phase-out, large CO 2 extraction from the air is needed and a halt of growth of non-CO 2 climate forcings to achieve the temperature stabilization of our scenarios.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 11 Discussion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Sweden provides a prime example: it has cut per capita emissions by two-thirds since the 1990s while doubling per capita income in a capitalistic framework that embodies free-market principles (Pierrehumbert, 2016).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.2 Mitigation alternative
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Pierrehumbert, 2016
plaincorrelationalSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Schaefer et al. (2016) conclude that the growth was primarily biogenic, thus not fossil fuel, and located outside the tropics, most likely ruminants and rice agriculture.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A8 CO 2 and CH 4 growth rates
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Schaefer et al., 2016
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, preindustrial global temperature has uncertainty of at least 0.1 • C, and the 1880-1920 period, which has the merit of near-global data, yields our best estimate of preindustrial temperature.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A5 Coincidence of 1880-1920 mean and preindustrial global mean temperatures
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Yet fossil fuel use continues to be high, at least in part because fossil fuel prices do not include their full cost to society.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.2 Mitigation alternative
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“coal providing 30 % of”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.2 Mitigation alternative
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites BP, 2016
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Hansen (2009Hansen ( , 2014) ) advocates an approach in which a gradually rising carbon fee is collected from the fossil fuel industry with the funds distributed uniformly to citizens.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.2 Mitigation alternative
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hansen (2009, 2014)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“CH 4 growth rate has varied over the past two decades, probably driven primarily by changes in emissions, as observations of CH 3 CCl 3 show very little change in the atmospheric sink for CH 4 (Montzka et al., 2011;Holmes et al., 2013).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A8 CO 2 and CH 4 growth rates
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Montzka et al., 2011
- Not checked yetcites Holmes et al., 2013
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These hot spots coincide with the locations of large SST changes between v3 and v4 (Fig. A3c), which leads us to suspect that the magnitude of the 1940s global warming maximum (Fig. 2) is exaggerated; i.e., it is partly spurious.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A3 Observed temperature data and analysis method
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“China is leading the world in installation of wind, solar and nuclear power, with new nuclear power in 2015 approximately matching the sum of new solar and wind power (BP, 2016).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 9.2 Mitigation alternative
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites BP, 2016
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Thus, we agree with the NAS (2015b) conclusion that research is warranted to better define the climate, economic, political, ethical, legal and other dimensions of potential climatic interventions.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 10.2 Aerosols and purposeful climate intervention
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites NAS, 2015b
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, potential reduction of non-CO 2 gases is helpful, but it does not alter the need for rapid fossil fuel emission reduction.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A13 Non-CO 2 GHGs
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Kyoto Protocol (1997), a policy instrument of the Framework Convention (United Nations, 1992), spurred emission reductions in some nations, and the collapse of the Soviet Union caused a large decrease in emissions by Russia (Fig. 1b).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Additional information
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Given rising global population and the fact that nations such as India are still at early stages of development, the potential exists for continued emissions growth.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Additional information
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The CH 4 atmospheric lifetime is only about 10 years (Prather et al., 2012), so there is potential to reduce this climate forcing rapidly if CH 4 sources are reduced.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A13 Non-CO 2 GHGs
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Prather et al., 2012
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We conclude that a 0.25 W m -2 decrease in climate forcing by non-CO 2 GHGs is plausible, but requires a dramatic change from the growing abundances of these gases today.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A13 Non-CO 2 GHGs
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“China is now the largest source of fossil fuel emissions, followed by the US and India, but on a per capita historical basis the US is 10 times more accountable than China and 25 times more accountable than India for the increase in atmospheric CO 2 above its preindustrial level (Hansen and Sato, 2016).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Additional information
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hansen and Sato, 2016
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Kyoto Protocol (1997), a policy instrument of the Framework Convention (United Nations, 1992), spurred emission reductions in some nations, and the collapse of the Soviet Union caused a large decrease in emissions by Russia (Fig. 1b).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > Additional information
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Achievement requires (i) successful phase-out of MPTGs (-0.23 W m -2 ), (ii) reduction of CH 4 forcing by 0.12 W m -2 , and (iii) limiting N 2 O increase to 0.1 W m -2 .”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A13 Non-CO 2 GHGs
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Wetlands compose a majority of natural CH 4 emissions and are estimated to be equivalent to about 36 % of the anthropogenic source(Ciais et al., 2013).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A13 Non-CO 2 GHGs
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Ciais et al., 2013
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Uncertainties (for 5-95 % confidence) are 0.6 W m -2 for total GHG forcing and 0.9 W m -2 for aerosol forcing(Myhre et al., 2013).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A13 Non-CO 2 GHGs
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Myhre et al., 2013
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Schwietzke et al. (2016) use isotopic constraints to show that the fossil fuel contribution to atmospheric CH 4 is larger than previously believed, but total fossil fuel CH 4 emissions are not increasing.”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A8 CO 2 and CH 4 growth rates
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Schwietzke et al., 2016
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The authors state this as an assumption.
The 1880-1920 mean temperature is 0.1°C warmer than the Little Ice Age minimum.
“Concatenation of the modern and Holocene temperature records (Fig. 3; Appendix A5) assumes that 1880-1920 mean temperature is 0.1 • C warmer than the Little Ice Age minimum (Abram et al., 2016).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Maximum Eemian temperature was +1°C relative to preindustrial with an uncertainty of at least 0.5°C.
“we assume that maximum Eemian temperature was +1 • C relative to preindustrial with an uncertainty of at least 0.5 • C.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Improved practices will aim at optimizing agricultural and forest carbon uptake via relatively natural approaches, compatible with the land delivering a range of ecosystem services.
“We assume that improved practices will aim at optimizing agricultural and forest carbon uptake via relatively natural approaches, compatible with the land delivering a range of ecosystem services (Smith, 2016;Smith et al., 2016).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Aerosol plus surface albedo forcing is -1.5 W m-2 in 2100.
“We assume a small increase this century as global population rises and increasing aerosol emission controls in emerging economies tend to be offset by increasing development elsewhere, so aerosol + surface forcing is -1.5 W m -2 in 2100.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
100 PgC can be stored via improved agricultural and forestry practices.
“Cost estimates here for extraction use amounts 100 Pg less than in Fig. 10 under assumption that 100 PgC can be stored via improved agricultural and forestry practices.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Human population continues to grow.
“Given that human population continues to grow, and that human-caused climate effects such as increased desertification can lead to increased aerosols, we do not anticipate a large reduction in the aerosol cooling effect, even if fossil fuel use declines.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Human-caused climate effects such as increased desertification can lead to increased aerosols.
“Given that human population continues to grow, and that human-caused climate effects such as increased desertification can lead to increased aerosols, we do not anticipate a large reduction in the aerosol cooling effect, even if fossil fuel use declines.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Emissions will continue at approximately current levels until a global program of emission reductions begins in 4 years (in 2021 relative to 2020).
“Required extraction is at least ∼ 150 PgC in our updated scenarios, which incorporate growth of emissions in the past 4 years and assume that emissions will continue at approximately current levels until a global program of emission reductions begins in 4 years (in 2021 relative to 2020; see Figs. 9 and 10 for reduction rates).”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Extraction goals 1,7,9,10 later this century in most studies are on the order of at least 10 Gt CO2 yr -1”
From Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands (2020) · cites this paper as [9]
In the citing paper
“Even the most ambitious emission phase-outs 9,10 fail to achieve the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement targets for limiting global warming without the help of massive atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR).”
From Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands (2020) · cites this paper as [9]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated major: it would touch a result — a value a result rests on, reported and recomputed p-values on opposite sides of the significance level, two passages that conflict with no sign which is right, or a cited work retracted before this paper was published.
In the paper
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > 7 Future CO 2 for assumed emission scenarios
“The rate of CO 2 extraction in all cases increases linearly from zero in 2010 to the value in 2100 that achieves the atmospheric CO 2 target (350 or 450 ppm).”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > A13 Non-CO 2 GHGs
“Figure 10.(a) Atmospheric CO 2 for Fig. 9a emission scenarios.(b) Atmospheric CO 2 including effect of CO 2 extraction that increases linearly after 2020 (after 2015 in +2 % yr -1 case).”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > References
“Interannual extremes in the rate of rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1980”
§ Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions > References
“Nature, 375, 666-670, 1973.”
Citations
Cites
Trends, Rhythms, and Aberrations in Global Climate 65 Ma to Present
Zachos, J., Pagani, M., Sloan, L., Thomas, E., & Billups, K. (2001) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1059412 · Cited by 10,458
The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review
Stern, N. (2007) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511817434 · Cited by 8,371
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., et al. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z · Cited by 7,741
A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production
Mantua, N. J., Hare, S. R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J. M., & Francis, R. C. (1997) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078 · Cited by 7,180
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., et al. (2010) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08823 · Cited by 6,467
Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change
Searchinger, T., Heimlich, R., Houghton, R. A., Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J., Tokgoz, S., Hayes, D., & Yu, T.-H. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1151861 · Cited by 4,888 · cited 4×
“US, 2016) was filed against the United States asking the US District Court, District of Oregon, to require the US government to produce a plan to rapidly reduce emissions.”
InfluentialThe RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
Meinshausen, M. A., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M., Lamarque, J., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S. A., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K., et al. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z · Cited by 3,781
Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback
Schuur, E. A. G., McGuire, A. D., Schädel, C., Grosse, G., Harden, J. W., Hayes, D. J., Hugelius, G., Koven, C. D., Kuhry, P., Lawrence, D. M., et al. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature14338 · Cited by 3,774
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C
Rogelj, J., den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., Schaeffer, R., Sha, F., Riahi, K., & Meinshausen, M. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature18307 · Cited by 3,637
An early Cenozoic perspective on greenhouse warming and carbon-cycle dynamics
Zachos, J. C., Dickens, G. R., & Zeebe, R. E. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06588 · Cited by 3,550
Global surface temperature change
Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., & Lo, K. (2010) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2010rg000345 · Cited by 3,081 · cited 2×
“However, as discussed by Hansen et al. (2010), the 12-month running mean global temperature is more informative and removes monthly “noise” from the record just as well as the calendar year average.”
Self-citationGlobal diets link environmental sustainability and human health
Tilman, D., & Clark, M. (2014) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature13959 · Cited by 3,026
Improvements to NOAA’s Historical Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880–2006)
Smith, T. M., Reynolds, R. W., Peterson, T. C., & Lawrimore, J. H. (2008) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2007jcli2100.1 · Cited by 2,934
Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change
Woolf, D., Amonette, J. E., Street-Perrott, F. A., Lehmann, J., & Joseph, S. (2010) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms1053 · Cited by 2,680
McGranahan, G., Balk, D. L., & Anderson, B. (2007) · Environment and Urbanization · doi:10.1177/0956247807076960 · Cited by 2,623
Future flood losses in major coastal cities
Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R. J., & Corfee-Morlot, J. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1979 · Cited by 2,503
Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene
Lambeck, K., Rouby, H., Purcell, A., Sun, Y., & Sambridge, M. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1411762111 · Cited by 2,215
Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise
DeConto, R. M., & Pollard, D. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature17145 · Cited by 2,050
An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily Database
Menne, M. J., Durre, I., Vose, R. S., Gleason, B. E., & Houston, T. G. (2012) · Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology · doi:10.1175/jtech-d-11-00103.1 · Cited by 1,993
XXXI. On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground
Arrhenius, S. A. (1896) · The London Edinburgh and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science · doi:10.1080/14786449608620846 · Cited by 1,726
Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling
Kosaka, Y., & Xie, S. (2013) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature12534 · Cited by 1,701
A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years
Marcott, S. A., Shakun, J. D., Clark, P. U., & Mix, A. C. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1228026 · Cited by 1,659
Self-citationHansen, J. E., Sato, M., Ruedy, R. A., Nazarenko, L., Lacis, A. A., Schmidt, G. A., Russell, G. L., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S. E., et al. (2005) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd005776 · Cited by 1,544
Self-citationGas hydrates—geological perspective and global change
Kvenvolden, K. A. (1993) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/93rg00268 · Cited by 1,543
Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: a contribution to resolve a policy dilemma?
Crutzen, P. J. (2006) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9101-y · Cited by 1,541
Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and hysteresis
Schoof, C. G. (2007) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2006jf000664 · Cited by 1,533
Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming
Crowther, T. W., Todd-Brown, K. E., Rowe, C. W., Wieder, W. R., Carey, J. C., Machmuller, M. B., Snoek, B. L., Fang, S., Zhou, G. S., Allison, S., et al. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature20150 · Cited by 1,485
Managing Forests for Climate Change Mitigation
Canadell, J. G., & Raupach, M. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1155458 · Cited by 1,453
Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions
Smith, P., Davis, S. J., Creutzig, F., Fuss, S., Minx, J., Gabrielle, B., Kato, E., Jackson, R. B., Cowie, A., Kriegler, E., et al. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2870 · Cited by 1,440
Self-citationTarget Atmospheric CO: Where Should Humanity Aim?
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., Beerling, D. J., Berner, R., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Mark Pagani, I., Raymo, M. E., Royer, D. L., & Zachos, J. C. (2008) · The Open Atmospheric Science Journal · doi:10.2174/1874282300802010217 · Cited by 1,378
Self-citationRecent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus
England, M. H., McGregor, S., Spence, P., Meehl, G. A., Timmermann, A., Cai, W., Gupta, A. S., McPhaden, M. J., Purich, A., & Santoso, A. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2106 · Cited by 1,356
Interannual extremes in the rate of rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1980
Keeling, C. D., Whorf, T., Wahlen, M., & van der Plichtt, J. (1995) · Nature · doi:10.1038/375666a0 · Cited by 1,343
World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010
Levitus, S., Antonov, J. I., Boyer, T. P., Baranova, O., Garcia, H. E., Locarnini, R., Mishonov, A. V., Reagan, J., Seidov, D., Yarosh, E. S., et al. (2012) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2012gl051106 · Cited by 1,179
Fuss, S., Canadell, J. G., Peters, G. P., Tavoni, M., Andrew, R. M., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Jones, C. D., Kraxner, F., Nakicenovic, N., et al. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2392 · Cited by 1,114
Self-citationGlobal warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario
Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Ruedy, R. A., Lacis, A. A., & Oinas, V. (2000) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.170278997 · Cited by 1,072
Self-citationWest Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster
Mercer, J. (1978) · Nature · doi:10.1038/271321a0 · Cited by 1,033
Etminan, M., Myhre, G., Highwood, E. J., & Shine, K. P. (2016) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2016gl071930 · Cited by 1,027
The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C
Peters, G. P., Andrew, R. M., Boden, T. A., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Quéré, C. L., Marland, G., Raupach, M., & Wilson, C. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1783 · Cited by 999
Soil carbon sequestration and biochar as negative emission technologies
Smith, P. (2016) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13178 · Cited by 973
Self-citationHuang, B., Banzon, V. F., Freeman, E., Lawrimore, J. H., Liu, W., Peterson, T. C., Smith, T. M., Thorne, P., Woodruff, S. D., & Zhang, H. (2014) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00006.1 · Cited by 941
Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850–1990
Sato, M., Hansen, J. E., McCormick, M. P., & Pollack, J. B. (1993) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/93jd02553 · Cited by 916
Self-citationSea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods
Dutton, A. L., Carlson, A. E., Long, A. J., Milne, G. A., Clark, P. U., DeConto, R. M., Horton, B. P., Rahmstorf, S., & Raymo, M. E. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aaa4019 · Cited by 904
Rignot, E. J., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H. L., & Scheuchl, B. (2014) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2014gl060140 · Cited by 885
Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C
Rogelj, J., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Kriegler, E., Schaeffer, M., Krey, V., & Riahi, K. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2572 · Cited by 875
Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015
Cheng, L., Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Abraham, J., & Zhu, J. (2017) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.1601545 · Cited by 875
Shifts in Arctic vegetation and associated feedbacks under climate change
Pearson, R. G., Phillips, S. J., Loranty, M. M., Beck, P. S. A., Damoulas, T., Knight, S. J., & Goetz, S. J. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1858 · Cited by 855
Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation
Bajželj, B., Richards, K., Allwood, J. M., Smith, P., Dennis, J. S., Curmi, E., & Gilligan, C. A. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2353 · Cited by 790
Self-citationForcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere‐ocean climate models
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., & Taylor, K. E. (2012) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2012gl051607 · Cited by 781
Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets
Friedlingstein, P., Andrew, R. M., Rogelj, J., Peters, G. P., Canadell, J. G., Knutti, R., Luderer, G., Raupach, M. R., Schaeffer, M., van Vuuren, D. P., et al. (2014) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2248 · Cited by 771
Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment
Creutzig, F., Ravindranath, N. H., Berndes, G., Bolwig, S., Bright, R., Cherubini, F., Chum, H., Corbera, E., Delucchi, M., Faaij, A., et al. (2015) · GCB Bioenergy · doi:10.1111/gcbb.12205 · Cited by 752
Self-citationHansen, J. E., Kharecha, P. A., Sato, M., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Ackerman, F., Beerling, D. J., Hearty, P. J., Hoegh‐Guldberg, O., Hsu, S.-L., Parmesan, C., et al. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0081648 · Cited by 743
Self-citationPrather, M. J., Holmes, C. D., & Hsu, J. C. (2012) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2012gl051440 · Cited by 728
Self-citationGlobal atmospheric methane: budget, changes and dangers
Dlugokencky, E. J., Nisbet, E. G., Fisher, R., & Lowry, D. C. (2011) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0341 · Cited by 715
Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive
Schmidt, G. A., Kelley, M., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R. A., Russell, G. L., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S. E., Bhat, M. K., Bleck, R., et al. (2014) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1002/2013ms000265 · Cited by 714
Self-citationWhy Capture CO 2 from the Atmosphere?
Keith, D. W. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1175680 · Cited by 706
Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Hearty, P. J., Ruedy, R. A., Kelley, M., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Russell, G. L., Tselioudis, G., Cao, J., Rignot, E. J., et al. (2016) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 · Cited by 686
Self-citationClimate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Russell, G., & Kharecha, P. (2013) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0294 · Cited by 660
Self-citationConsequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change
Clark, P. U., Shakun, J. D., Marcott, S. A., Mix, A. C., Eby, M., Kulp, S., Levermann, A., Milne, G. A., Pfister, P. L., Santer, B. D., et al. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2923 · Cited by 646 · cited 2×
“There is widespread agreement that 2°C warming would commit the world to multi-meter sea level rise (Levermann et al., 2013; Dutton et al., 2015; Clark et al., 2016).”
Self-citationAn apparent hiatus in global warming?
Trenberth, K. E., & Fasullo, J. T. (2013) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1002/2013ef000165 · Cited by 645
Rapid coupling between ice volume and polar temperature over the past 150,000 years
Grant, K., Rohling, E. J., Bar‐Matthews, M., Ayalon, A., Medina‐Elizalde, M., Ramsey, C. B., Satow, C., & Roberts, A. P. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature11593 · Cited by 643
Self-citationBiological and Chemical Response of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean to the 1997-98 El Niño
Chavez, F. P., Strutton, P. G., Friederich, G. E., Feely, R. A., Feldman, G. C., Foley, D. G., & McPhaden, M. J. (1999) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.286.5447.2126 · Cited by 642
Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure
Pollard, D., DeConto, R. M., & Alley, R. B. (2015) · Earth and Planetary Science Letters · doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.035 · Cited by 633
Earth's energy imbalance and implications
Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Kharecha, P. A., & von Schuckmann, K. (2011) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011 · Cited by 632
Self-citationThe Holocene temperature conundrum
Liu, Z., Zhu, J., Rosenthal, Y., Zhang, X., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Timmermann, A., Smith, R. S., Lohmann, G., Zheng, W., & Timm, O. E. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1407229111 · Cited by 630
Options for the abatement of methane and nitrous oxide from ruminant production: A review
Eckard, R., Grainger, C. I., & de Klein, C. A. M. (2010) · Livestock Science · doi:10.1016/j.livsci.2010.02.010 · Cited by 625
Atmospheric CO 2 : Principal Control Knob Governing Earth’s Temperature
Lacis, A. A., Schmidt, G. A., Rind, D. H., & Ruedy, R. A. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1190653 · Cited by 599
Self-citationUpward revision of global fossil fuel methane emissions based on isotope database
Schwietzke, S., Sherwood, O. A., Bruhwiler, L., Miller, J. B., Etiope, G., Dlugokencky, E. J., Michel, S., Arling, V. A., Vaughn, B. H., White, J. W. C., et al. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature19797 · Cited by 591
Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era
Kopp, R. E., Kemp, A. C., Bittermann, K., Horton, B. P., Donnelly, J. P., Gehrels, W. R., Hay, C. C., Mitrovica, J. X., Morrow, E. D., & Rahmstorf, S. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1517056113 · Cited by 544
Sea-level variability over five glacial cycles
Grant, K., Rohling, E. J., Ramsey, C. B., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Florindo, F., Heslop, D., Marra, F., Roberts, A. P., Tamisiea, M. E., et al. (2014) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms6076 · Cited by 536
Self-citationOn the interpretation of inter-model spread in CMIP5 climate sensitivity estimates
Vial, J., Dufresne, J., & Bony, S. (2013) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1725-9 · Cited by 523
Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways
Rao, S., Klimont, Z., Smith, S. J., Dingenen, R. V., Dentener, F. J., Bouwman, L., Riahi, K., Amann, M. C., Bodirsky, B. L., van Vuuren, D. P., et al. (2016) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012 · Cited by 521
The Sun's total irradiance: Cycles, trends and related climate change uncertainties since 1976
Fröhlich, C., & Lean, J. L. (1998) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/1998gl900157 · Cited by 520
Rising atmospheric methane: 2007–2014 growth and isotopic shift
Nisbet, E. G., Dlugokencky, E. J., Manning, M., Lowry, D. C., Fisher, R., France, J. L., Michel, S., Miller, J. B., White, J. W. C., Vaughn, B. H., et al. (2016) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1002/2016gb005406 · Cited by 517
A 21st-century shift from fossil-fuel to biogenic methane emissions indicated by 13 CH 4
Schaefer, H., Fletcher, S. E. M., Veidt, C., Lassey, K. R., Brailsford, G., Bromley, T. M., Dlugokencky, E. J., Michel, S., Miller, J. B., Levin, I., et al. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aad2705 · Cited by 512
Preparing for a Warmer World: Towards a Global Governance System to Protect Climate Refugees
Biermann, F., & Boas, I. (2010) · Global Environmental Politics · doi:10.1162/glep.2010.10.1.60 · Cited by 510 · cited 1×
“, 2013), there is potential for forced migrations of hundreds of millions of people, dwarfing prior refugee humanitarian crises, challenging global governance (Biermann and Boas, 2010) and security (Gemenne et al.”
Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability
Dai, A., Fyfe, J. C., Xie, S., & Dai, X. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2605 · Cited by 497
Climate Strategy with Co2 Capture from the Air
Keith, D. W., Ha‐Duong, M., & Stolaroff, J. K. (2005) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-005-9026-x · Cited by 492
Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise
Overpeck, J. T., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Miller, G. H., Muhs, D. R., Alley, R. B., & Kiehl, J. T. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1115159 · Cited by 472
The importance of reduced meat and dairy consumption for meeting stringent climate change targets
Hedenus, F., Wirsenius, S., & Johansson, D. J. A. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1104-5 · Cited by 458
Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’
Medhaug, I., Stolpe, M. B., Fischer, E. M., & Knutti, R. (2017) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature22315 · Cited by 456
IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks
O’Neill, B. C., Oppenheimer, M., Warren, R., Stéphane Hallegatte, A., Kopp, R. E., Pörtner, H., Scholes, R. J., Birkmann, J., Foden, W., Licker, R., et al. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3179 · Cited by 454
Climate change and trace gases
Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Kharecha, P. A., Russell, G. L., Lea, D. W., & Siddall, M. E. (2007) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2052 · Cited by 449
Self-citationAn imperative to monitor Earth's energy imbalance
von Schuckmann, K., Palmer, M. D., Trenberth, K. E., Cazenave, A., Chambers, D. P., Champollion, N., Hansen, J. E., Josey, S. A., Loeb, N. G., Mathieu, P. ‐., et al. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2876 · Cited by 445
Self-citationPotential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils
Schädel, C., Bader, M. K., Schuur, E. A. G., Biasi, C., Bracho, R., Čapek, P., Baets, S. D., Diáková, K., Ernakovich, J. G., Estop‐Aragonés, C., et al. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3054 · Cited by 433
Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non-CO2 greenhouse gases from agricultural production
Popp, A., Lotze‐Campen, H., & Bodirsky, B. L. (2010) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.02.001 · Cited by 417
The growing role of methane in anthropogenic climate change
Saunois, M., Jackson, R. B., Bousquet, P., Poulter, B., & Canadell, J. G. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/120207 · Cited by 415
Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents
Abram, N. J., McGregor, H. V., Tierney, J. E., Evans, M. N., McKay, N. P., & Kaufman, D. S. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature19082 · Cited by 411
Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown
Fyfe, J. C., Meehl, G. A., England, M. H., Mann, M. E., Santer, B. D., Flato, G. M., Hawkins, E., Gillett, N. P., Xie, S.-P., Kosaka, Y., et al. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2938 · Cited by 394
Ambiguity in the causes for decadal trends in atmospheric methane and hydroxyl
Turner, A. J., Frankenberg, C., Wennberg, P. O., & Jacob, D. J. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1616020114 · Cited by 389
Geoengineering potential of artificially enhanced silicate weathering of olivine
Köhler, P., Hartmann, J., & Wolf-Gladrow, D. A. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1000545107 · Cited by 384
Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity
PALAEOSENS Project Members (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature11574 · Cited by 383
Small Interannual Variability of Global Atmospheric Hydroxyl
Montzka, S. A., Krol, M., Dlugokencky, E. J., Hall, B. D., Jöckel, P., & Lelieveld, J. (2011) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1197640 · Cited by 374
Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost
DeConto, R. M., Galeotti, S., Mark Pagani, I., Tracy, D., Schaefer, K. M., Zhang, T., Pollard, D., & Beerling, D. J. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature10929 · Cited by 373
Self-citationGlobal, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions (1751 - 2014) (V. 2017)
Boden, T., Andres, R., & Marland, G. (2017) · OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) · doi:10.3334/cdiac/00001_v2017 · Cited by 372
The ice-core record: climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming
Lorius, C., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Hansen, J. E., & Treut, H. L. (1990) · Nature · doi:10.1038/347139a0 · Cited by 370
Self-citationEnhanced weathering strategies for stabilizing climate and averting ocean acidification
Taylor, L. L., Quirk, J., Thorley, R. M. S., Kharecha, P. A., Hansen, J., Ridgwell, A., Lomas, M. R., Banwart, S. A., & Beerling, D. J. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2882 · Cited by 366
A Solar Irradiance Climate Data Record
Coddington, O., Lean, J. L., Pilewskie, P., Snow, M., & Lindholm, D. M. (2015) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-14-00265.1 · Cited by 359
Toward a better understanding and quantification of methane emissions from shale gas development
Caulton, D., Shepson, P. B., Santoro, R. L., Sparks, J. P., Howarth, R. W., Ingraffea, A. R., Cambaliza, M. O., Sweeney, C., Karion, A., Davis, K. J., et al. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1316546111 · Cited by 358
Role of atmospheric oxidation in recent methane growth
Rigby, M., Montzka, S., Prinn, R. G., White, J. W. C., Young, D., O'Doherty, S., Lunt, M., Ganesan, A., Manning, A. J., Simmonds, P., et al. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · doi:10.1073/pnas.1616426114 · Cited by 355
Estimating Changes in Global Temperature since the Preindustrial Period
Hawkins, E., Ortega, P., Suckling, E. B., Schurer, A., Hegerl, G. C., Jones, P. D., Joshi, M., Osborn, T. J., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Mignot, J., et al. (2017) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-16-0007.1 · Cited by 337
Self-citationThe geological methane budget at Continental Margins and its influence on climate change
Judd, A., Hovland, M. T., Dimitrov, L., García‐Gil, S., & Jukes, V. (2002) · Geofluids · doi:10.1046/j.1468-8123.2002.00027.x · Cited by 334
Measuring and modeling the lifetime of nitrous oxide including its variability
Prather, M. J., Hsu, J. C., DeLuca, N. M., Jackman, C. H., Oman, L. D., Douglass, A. R., Fleming, E. L., Strahan, S. E., Steenrod, S. D., Søvde, O. A., et al. (2015) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2015jd023267 · Cited by 327
Self-citationAnalysis of present-day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations
Voulgarakis, A., Naik, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Shindell, D. T., Young, P. J., Prather, M. J., Wild, O., Field, R. D., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., et al. (2013) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013 · Cited by 324
The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming
Levermann, A., Clark, P. U., Marzeion, B., Milne, G. A., Pollard, D., Radić, V., & Robinson, A. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1219414110 · Cited by 321
Hansen, J. E., & Sato, M. (2004) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0406982101 · Cited by 320
Self-citationHistorical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors
Lovering, J. R., Yip, A., & Nordhaus, T. (2016) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2016.01.011 · Cited by 317
Climate Risks and Carbon Prices: Revising the Social Cost of Carbon
Ackerman, F., & Stanton, E. A. (2012) · Economics · doi:10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2012-10 · Cited by 308
Climate Response Times: Dependence on Climate Sensitivity and Ocean Mixing
Hansen, J. E., Russell, G. L., Lacis, A. A., FUNG, I. Y., Rind, D. H., & Stone, P. H. (1985) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.229.4716.857 · Cited by 297
Self-citationEmissions reduction: Scrutinize CO2 removal methods
Williamson, P. C. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/530153a · Cited by 294
Large historical changes of fossil‐fuel black carbon aerosols
Novakov, T., Ramanathan, V., Hansen, J. E., Kirchstetter, T. W., Sato, M., Sinton, J. E., & Sathaye, J. A. (2003) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2002gl016345 · Cited by 281
Self-citationBetts, R., JONES, C. D., Knight, J. R., Keeling, R. F., & Kennedy, J. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3063 · Cited by 276
Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modelling and data
Lunt, D. J., Haywood, A. M., Schmidt, G. A., Salzmann, U., Valdes, P. J., & Dowsett, H. J. (2009) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo706 · Cited by 274
A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature
Thompson, D. W. J., Kennedy, J., Wallace, J. M., & Jones, P. D. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06982 · Cited by 273
Regional and global sea-surface temperatures during the last interglaciation
Hoffman, J. S., Clark, P. U., Parnell, A. C., & He, F. (2017) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aai8464 · Cited by 268
Jackson, R. B., Canadell, J. G., Quéré, C. L., Andrew, R. M., Korsbakken, J. I., Peters, G. P., & Nakićenović, N. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2892 · Cited by 267
Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change
Stott, P. A., Christidis, N., Otto, F. E. L., Sun, Y., Vanderlinden, J., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vautard, R., von STORCH, H., Walton, P., Yiou, P., et al. (2016) · HAL · doi:10.17226/21852 · Cited by 266
Does the Agulhas Current amplify global temperatures during super‐interglacials?
TURNEY, C. S. M., & Jones, R. T. (2010) · Journal of Quaternary Science · doi:10.1002/jqs.1423 · Cited by 263
Scientific reticence and sea level rise
Hansen, J. E. (2007) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002 · Cited by 263
Self-citationJoos, F., Bruno, M., Fink, R., Siegenthaler, U., Stocker, T. F., Quéré, C. L., & Sarmiento, J. L. (1996) · Tellus B · doi:10.1034/j.1600-0889.1996.t01-2-00006.x · Cited by 256
What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?
Sanderson, B. M., O’Neill, B. C., & Tebaldi, C. (2016) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2016gl069563 · Cited by 251
Trends and seasonal cycles in the isotopic composition of nitrous oxide since 1940
Park, S., Croteau, P., Boering, K. A., Etheridge, D. M., Ferretti, D. F., Fraser, P. J., Kim, K. R., Krummel, P. B., Langenfelds, R. L., van Ommen, T. D., et al. (2012) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo1421 · Cited by 250
Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming
Meehl, G. A., Teng, H., & Arblaster, J. M. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2357 · Cited by 250
New constraints on atmospheric CO2 concentration for the Phanerozoic
Franks, P. J., Royer, D. L., Beerling, D. J., de Water, P. K. V., Cantrill, D. J., Barbour, M. M., & Berry, J. A. (2014) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2014gl060457 · Cited by 248
Self-citationO’Connor, F. M., Boucher, O., Gedney, N., JONES, C. D., Folberth, G., Coppell, R., Friedlingstein, P., Collins, W. J., Chappellaz, J., Ridley, J., et al. (2010) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2010rg000326 · Cited by 247
Holmes, C. D., Prather, M. J., Søvde, O. A., & Myhre, G. (2013) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-13-285-2013 · Cited by 232
Large Volcanic Aerosol Load in the Stratosphere Linked to Asian Monsoon Transport
Bourassa, A., Robock, A. D., Randel, W. J., Deshler, T., Rieger, L., Lloyd, N. D., Llewellyn, E. J., & Degenstein, D. A. (2012) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1219371 · Cited by 231
Bustamante, M., Robledo‐Abad, C., Harper, R. J., Mbow, C., Ravindranat, N. H., Sperling, F., Haberl, H., Pinto, A. D. S., & Smith, P. (2014) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12591 · Cited by 230
Self-citationThe darkening of the Greenland ice sheet: trends, drivers, and projections (1981–2100)
Tedesco, M., Doherty, S. J., Fettweis, X., Alexander, P., Jeyaratnam, J., Noble, E., & Stroeve, J. C. (2016) · The Cryosphere · doi:10.5194/tc-10-477-2016 · Cited by 221
What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated?
Newman, P. A., Oman, L. D., Douglass, A. R., Fleming, E. L., Frith, S. M., Hurwitz, M. M., Kawa, S. R., Jackman, C. H., Krotkov, N. A., Nash, E. R., et al. (2009) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-9-2113-2009 · Cited by 220
Identification and characterization of high methane-emitting abandoned oil and gas wells
Kang, M., Christian, S., Celia, M. A., Mauzerall, D. L., Bill, M., Miller, A. R., Chen, Y., Conrad, M. E., Darrah, T. H., & Jackson, R. B. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1605913113 · Cited by 209
A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes ?dangerous anthropogenic interference??
Hansen, J. E. (2005) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-005-4135-0 · Cited by 207
Self-citationCarbon Dioxide Efficiency of Terrestrial Enhanced Weathering
Moosdorf, N., Renforth, P., & Hartmann, J. (2014) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/es4052022 · Cited by 207
The role of ocean thermal expansion in Last Interglacial sea level rise
McKay, N. P., Overpeck, J. T., & Otto‐Bliesner, B. L. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2011gl048280 · Cited by 204
Govin, A., Capron, É., Tzedakis, P. C., Verheyden, S., Ghaleb, B., Hillaire‐Marcel, C., St‐Onge, G., Stoner, J. S., Bassinot, F., Bazin, L., et al. (2015) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.09.018 · Cited by 195
Self-citationMeinshausen, M. A., Wigley, T. M. L., & Raper, S. C. B. (2011) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-11-1457-2011 · Cited by 181
Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions
JONES, C. D., Ciais, P., Davis, S. J., Friedlingstein, P., Gasser, T., Peters, G. P., Rogelj, J., van Vuuren, D. P., Canadell, J. G., Cowie, A., et al. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012 · Cited by 181
Self-citationStratospheric solar geoengineering without ozone loss
Keith, D. W., Weisenstein, D. K., Dykema, J. A., & Keutsch, F. N. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1615572113 · Cited by 176
Edwards, D. P., Lim, F. K. S., James, R. H., Pearce, C. R., Scholes, J. D., Freckleton, R. P., & Beerling, D. J. (2017) · Biology Letters · doi:10.1098/rsbl.2016.0715 · Cited by 173
Self-citationKantola, I. B., Masters, M. D., Beerling, D. J., Long, S. P., & DeLucia, E. H. (2017) · Biology Letters · doi:10.1098/rsbl.2016.0714 · Cited by 165
Self-citationTurner, A. J., Jacob, D. J., Benmergui, J., Wofsy, S. C., Maasakkers, J. D., Butz, A., Hasekamp, O., & Biraud, S. C. (2016) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2016gl067987 · Cited by 164
Climate and Security: Evidence, Emerging Risks, and a New Agenda
Gemenne, F., Barnett, J., Adger, W. N., & Dabelko, G. D. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1074-7 · Cited by 158
Climate Change: Risk, Ethics, and the Stern Review
Stern, N. H., & Taylor, C. (2007) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1142920 · Cited by 155
Insights into Earth’s Energy Imbalance from Multiple Sources
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J., von Schuckmann, K., & Cheng, L. (2016) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0339.1 · Cited by 140
Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled
Huber, M., & Knutti, R. (2014) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2228 · Cited by 138
Regional climate change and national responsibilities
Hansen, J., & Sato, M. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034009 · Cited by 133
Self-citationImplications of “peak oil” for atmospheric CO2and climate
Kharecha, P. A., & Hansen, J. E. (2008) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2007gb003142 · Cited by 121
Self-citationAtmospheric carbon dioxide removal: long-term consequences and commitment
Cao, L., & Caldeira, K. (2010) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024011 · Cited by 119
How well can we derive Global Ocean Indicators from Argo data?
von Schuckmann, K., & Traon, P. L. (2011) · Ocean science · doi:10.5194/os-7-783-2011 · Cited by 116
The response of the southern Greenland ice sheet to the Holocene thermal maximum
Larsen, N. K., Kjær, K. H., Lecavalier, B. S., Bjørk, A. A., Colding, S. O., Huybrechts, P., Jakobsen, K. E., Kjeldsen, K. K., Knudsen, K. L., Odgaard, B. V., et al. (2015) · Geology · doi:10.1130/g36476.1 · Cited by 114
National Research Council (2015) · National Academies Press eBooks · doi:10.17226/18988 · Cited by 111
Nitrogen fertilizer induced greenhouse gas emissions in China
Xuejun, L., & Fu-suo, Z. (2011) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2011.08.006 · Cited by 101
Howarth, R. W. (2015) · Energy and Emission Control Technologies · doi:10.2147/eect.s61539 · Cited by 100
Smart Taxes: An Open Invitation to Join the Pigou Club
Mankiw, N. G. (2009) · Eastern Economic Journal · doi:10.1057/eej.2008.43 · Cited by 100
Geobiological constraints on Earth system sensitivity to CO2 during the Cretaceous and Cenozoic
Royer, D. L., Mark Pagani, I., & Beerling, D. J. (2012) · Geobiology · doi:10.1111/j.1472-4669.2012.00320.x · Cited by 100
Self-citationSequestration of carbon in the deep Atlantic during the last glaciation
Yu, J., Menviel, L., Jin, Z., Thornalley, D., Barker, S., Marino, G., Rohling, E. J., Cai, Y., Zhang, F., Wang, X., et al. (2016) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2657 · Cited by 96
Self-citationCarbon balance effects of U.S. biofuel production and use
DeCicco, J., Liu, D. Y., Heo, J., Krishnan, R., Kurthen, A., & Wang, L. L. (2016) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1764-4 · Cited by 95
The Impact of the Revised Sunspot Record on Solar Irradiance Reconstructions
Kopp, G. A., Krivova, N. A., Wu, C., & Lean, J. L. (2016) · Solar Physics · doi:10.1007/s11207-016-0853-x · Cited by 91
Atmospheric constraints on the methane emissions from the East Siberian Shelf
Berchet, A., Bousquet, P., Pison, I., Locatelli, R., Chevallier, F., Paris, J.-D., Dlugokencky, E. J., Laurila, T., Hatakka, J., Viisanen, Y., et al. (2016) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-16-4147-2016 · Cited by 90
The ozone layer: the road not taken
Prather, M. J., Midgley, P. M., Rowland, F. S., & Stolarski, R. S. (1996) · Nature · doi:10.1038/381551a0 · Cited by 78
Self-citationRohling, E. J., Medina‐Elizalde, M., Shepherd, J. G., Siddall, M. E., & Stanford, J. D. (2011) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2011jcli4078.1 · Cited by 78
Self-citationNational Research Council (2015) · National Academies Press eBooks · doi:10.17226/18805 · Cited by 77
Interglacial and future sea level
Clark, P. U., & Huybers, P. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/462856a · Cited by 71
Energy and CO2emission data uncertainties
Macknick, J. (2011) · Carbon Management · doi:10.4155/cmt.11.10 · Cited by 69
Talks in the city of light generate more heat
Anderson, K. L. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/528437a · Cited by 68
Röckmann, T., & Levin, I. (2005) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd006066 · Cited by 65
U.S. CH4 emissions from oil and gas production: Have recent large increases been detected?
Bruhwiler, L., Basu, S., Bergamaschi, P., Bousquet, P., Dlugokencky, E. J., Houweling, S., Ishizawa, M., Kim, H. ‐., Locatelli, R., Maksyutov, S. S., et al. (2017) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2016jd026157 · Cited by 65
Overexplaining or underexplaining methane’s role in climate change
Prather, M. J., & Holmes, C. D. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1704884114 · Cited by 64
Self-citationLacis, A. A., Hansen, J. E., Russell, G. L., Oinas, V., & Jonas, J. (2013) · Tellus B · doi:10.3402/tellusb.v65i0.19734 · Cited by 57
Self-citationUsing δ 13 C-CH 4 and δ D-CH 4 to constrain Arctic methane emissions
Warwick, N. J., Cain, M. L., Fisher, R., France, J. L., Lowry, D. C., Michel, S., Nisbet, E. G., Vaughn, B. H., White, J. W. C., & Pyle, J. A. (2016) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-16-14891-2016 · Cited by 56
A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise
Rohling, E. J., Haigh, I. D., Foster, G. L., Roberts, A. P., & Grant, K. (2013) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep03461 · Cited by 54
Self-citationChina-U.S. cooperation to advance nuclear power
Cao, J., Cohen, A. M., Hansen, J. E., Lester, R. K., Peterson, P. F., & Xu, H. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aaf7131 · Cited by 52
Self-citationClimate System Scenario Tables
Change, I. P. O. C. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415324.030 · Cited by 50
Epule, E. T., Peng, C., & Mafany, N. M. (2011) · Journal of Sustainable Development · doi:10.5539/jsd.v4n6p188 · Cited by 49
Rajaratnam, B., Romano, J. P., Tsiang, M., & Diffenbaugh, N. S. (2015) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1495-y · Cited by 48
The link between a global 2 °C warming threshold and emissions in years 2020, 2050 and beyond
Huntingford, C., Lowe, J. A., Gohar, L., Bowerman, N., Allen, M. R., Raper, S. C. B., & Smith, S. M. (2012) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014039 · Cited by 45
Tyndall, J. (1861) · The London Edinburgh and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science · doi:10.1080/14786446108643154 · Cited by 39
Parker, A., & Geden, O. (2016) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2851 · Cited by 34
Does terrestrial drought explain global CO 2 flux anomalies induced by El Niño?
Schwalm, C. R., Williams, C. A., Schaefer, K. M., Baker, I., Collatz, G. J., & Rödenbeck, C. (2011) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-8-2493-2011 · Cited by 33
Quiquet, A., Archibald, A. T., Friend, A. D., Chappellaz, J., Levine, J. G., Stone, E. J., Telford, P. J., & Pyle, J. A. (2015) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.01.004 · Cited by 29
Last interglacial model–data mismatch of thermal maximum temperatures partially explained
Bakker, P., & Renssen, H. (2014) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-10-1633-2014 · Cited by 26
Increasing temperature forcing reduces the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response time scale
Applegate, P. J., Parizek, B. R., Nicholas, R. E., Alley, R. B., & Keller, K. M. (2014) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2451-7 · Cited by 25
Holocene climate change and its context for the future
Marcott, S. A., & Shakun, J. D. (2015) · Past Global Change Magazine · doi:10.22498/pages.23.1.28 · Cited by 25
Self-citationThe role of nitrogen in climate change
Kroeze, C., & Bouwman, L. (2011) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2011.08.015 · Cited by 17
How to decarbonize? Look to Sweden
Pierrehumbert, R. T. (2016) · Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists · doi:10.1080/00963402.2016.1145908 · Cited by 16
Dieng, H. B., Cazenave, A., Meyssignac, B., von Schuckmann, K., & Palanisamy, H. (2017) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.4996 · Cited by 16
Pétron, G., Frost, G. J., Trainer, M., Miller, B. R., Dlugokencky, E. J., & Tans, P. P. (2012) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2012jd018487 · Cited by 12
Novakov, T., Menon, S., Kirchstetter, T. W., et al. (2005) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd005977 · Cited by 11
Schoof, C. G. (2010) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo895 · Cited by 10
Environment and Development Challenges
Bernard, L., Semmler, W., & Hansen, J. E. (2015) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199856978.013.0026 · Cited by 9
Self-citationTen Arguments for a Carbon Tax
Hsu, S.-L. (2011) · Island Press/Center for Resource Economics eBooks · doi:10.5822/978-1-61091-178-8_3 · Cited by 6
Saunois, M., Bousquet, P., Poulter, B., Peregon, A. M., Ciais, P., Canadell, J. G., Dlugokencky, E. J., Etiope, G., Bastviken, D., Houweling, S., et al. (2017) · doi:10.5194/acp-2017-296-supplement · Cited by 1
Self-citationYoung People'S Burden: Data Files
Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Kharecha, P. A., & von Schuckmann, K. (2017) · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) · doi:10.5281/zenodo.823300 · Cited by 1
Self-citation
Research works printed but not linked: 18
- Bindoff, N. L. and Stott, P. A.: Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013.
- Boucher, O., Randall, D., Artaxo, P., Bretherton, C., Fiengold, G., Forster, P., Kerminen, V.-M., Kondo, Y., Liao, H., Lohmann, U., Rasch, P., Satheesh, S. K., Sherwood, S., Stevens, B., and Zhang, X. Y.: Clouds and aerosols, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013.
- BP: 2016 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, available at: http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html, last access: 23 June 2016.
- Charney, J., Arakawa, A., Baker, D., Bolin, B., Dickinson, R., Goody, R., Leith, C., Stommel, H., and Wunsch, C.: Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment, Natl. Acad. Sci. Press, Washington, D.C., USA, p. 33, 1979.
- Chinese Academy of Engineering: Re-studying the nuclear development in China, 1st Edn., Tsinghua University Press, Tsinghua, 2015.
- Ciais, P., Sabine, C., Bala, G., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., Canadell, J., Chhabra, A., DeFries, R., Galloway, J., Heimann, M., Jones, C., Le Quéré, C., Myneni, R. B., Piao, S., and Thornton, P.: Carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013.
- Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J. L., Fichefet, T., Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X., Gutowski, W. J., Johns, T., Krinner, G., Shongwe, M., Tebaldi, C., Weaver, A., and Wehner, M.: Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Basis, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013.
- Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S. C., Collins, W., Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V., Forest, C., Gleckler, P., Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., Reason, C., and Rummukainen, M.: Evaluation of Climate Models, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013.
- Hansen, J.: Storms of My Grandchildren, Bloomsbury, New York, 304 pp., 2009.
- Hartmann, D. L., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Rusticucci, M., Alexander, L. V., Brönnimann, S., Charabi, Y., Dentener, F. J., Dlugokencky, E. J., Easterling, D. R., Kaplan, A., Soden, B. J., Thorne, P. W., Wild, M., and Zhai, P. M.: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013.
- IPCC: Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, in: Vol. 4, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use, edited by: Eggleston, H. S., Buendia, L., Miwa, K., Ngara, T., and Tanabe, K., IGES Japan, http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/ (last access: September 2016), 2006.
- IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Climate Change 2013, edited by: Stocker, T., Qin, D., Q., Plattner, G. K., Tignor, M. M. B., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1535 pp., 2013.
- IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, edited by: Field, C., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D. J., Mach, K.J., and Mastrandrea, M. D., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1132 pp., 2014.
- IPCC SRES – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, edited by: Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000.
- Kirtman, B., Power, S. B., Adedoyin, J. A., Boer, G. J., Bojariu, R., Camilloni, I., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Fiore, A. M., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Prather, M., Sarr, A., Schär, C., Sutton, R., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vecchi, G., and Wang, H. J.: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013.
- Masson-Delmotte, V., Schulz, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Beer, J., Ganopolski, A., Gonzalez Rouco, J. F., Jansen, E., Lambeck, K., Luterbacher, J., Naish, T., Osboorn, T., Otto-Bliesner, B., Quinn, T., Ramexh, R., Rojas, M. Shao, X., and Timmermann, A.: Information from paleoclimate archives, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013.
- Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Breon, F., Collins, W., Fuglestvedt, J., Huang, J., Koch, D., Lamarque, J. F., Lee, D., Mendoza, B., Nakajima, T., Robock, A., Stephens, G., Takemura, T., and Zhang, H: Anthropogenic and natural climate forcing, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013.
- Smith, P., Bustamante, M., Ahammad, H., Clark, H., Dong, H., Elsiddig, E. A., Haberl, H., Harper, R., House, J. Jafari, M., Masera, O., Mbow, C., Ravindranath, N. H., Rice, C. W., Abad, C. R., Romanovskaya, A., Sperling, F., and Tubiello, F. N.: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU), in: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Madruga, R., Sokona, Y., Minx, J.C. Farahani, E., Kadner, S., Seyboth, K. Adler, A., Baum, I., Brunner, S., Eickemeier, P., Kriemann, B. Savolainen, J., Schlomer, S., von Stechow, C., and Zwickel, T., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2014.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
A Global Assessment: Can Renewable Energy Replace Fossil Fuels by 2050?
Holechek, J. L., Geli, H. M. E., Sawalhah, M. N., & Valdéz, R. (2022) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su14084792 · Cited by 1,441
Bogdanov, D., Ram, M., Aghahosseini, A., Gulagi, A., Oyewo, A. S., Child, M., Caldera, U., Sadovskaia, K., Farfan, J., Barbosa, L. D. S. N. S., et al. (2021) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2021.120467 · Cited by 983
Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands
Beerling, D. J., Kantzas, E. P., Lomas, M. R., Wade, P., Eufrasio, R. M., Renforth, P., Sarkar, B., Andrews, M. G., James, R. H., Pearce, C. R., et al. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2448-9 · Cited by 700
Self-citationOn the History and Future of 100% Renewable Energy Systems Research
Breyer, C., Khalili, S., Bogdanov, D., Ram, M., Oyewo, A. S., Aghahosseini, A., Gulagi, A., Solomon, A. A., Keiner, D., Lopez, G., et al. (2022) · IEEE Access · doi:10.1109/access.2022.3193402 · Cited by 644
Farming with crops and rocks to address global climate, food and soil security
Beerling, D. J., Leake, J. R., Long, S. P., Scholes, J. D., Ton, J., Nelson, P. N., Bird, M., Kantzas, E., Taylor, L. L., Sarkar, B., et al. (2018) · Nature Plants · doi:10.1038/s41477-018-0108-y · Cited by 480
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., von Schuckmann, K., Beerling, D. J., Cao, J., Marcott, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Prather, M. J., Rohling, E. J., Shakun, J., Smith, P., Lacis, A., Russell, G., & Ruedy, R.
- Affiliations
- Columbia University (US)
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation (GB)
- Institute of Earth Environment (CN)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- Australian National University (AU)
- Boston College (US)
- University of Aberdeen (GB)
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
- Corresponding author
- Hansen, James
- ORCID
- Venue
- Earth System Dynamics
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2017-07-18
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 577-616
- ISSN
- 2190-4979 (ISSN-L)
- 2190-4987
- OpenAlex
- W2522290956
- Cited by
- 266
- References
- 192
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 33 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 29 · 2021: 35 · 2020: 30 · 2019: 39 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 14
- FWCI
- 21.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Earth System Dynamics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (acceptedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- Aberdeen University Research Archive (Aberdeen University) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- carbon dioxide removal, CO2 extraction, global warming, Eemian interglacial, sea level rise, energy balance, greenhouse gas forcing, fossil fuel emissions, climate change mitigation, youth, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, air capture, reforestation, soil carbon
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-10, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-10 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
