Major lipids, apolipoproteins, and risk of vascular disease
Open accessAbstract
CONTEXT: Associations of major lipids and apolipoproteins with the risk of vascular disease have not been reliably quantified. OBJECTIVE: To assess major lipids and apolipoproteins in vascular risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Individual records were supplied on 302,430 people without initial vascular disease from 68 long-term prospective studies, mostly in Europe and North America. During 2.79 million person-years of follow-up, there were 8857 nonfatal myocardial infarctions, 3928 coronary heart disease [CHD] deaths, 2534 ischemic strokes, 513 hemorrhagic strokes, and 2536 unclassified strokes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Hazard ratios (HRs), adjusted for several conventional factors, were calculated for 1-SD higher values: 0.52 log(e) triglyceride, 15 mg/dL high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), 43 mg/dL non-HDL-C, 29 mg/dL apolipoprotein AI, 29 mg/dL apolipoprotein B, and 33 mg/dL directly measured low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Within-study regression analyses were adjusted for within-person variation and combined using meta-analysis. RESULTS: The rates of CHD per 1000 person-years in the bottom and top thirds of baseline lipid distributions, respectively, were 2.6 and 6.2 with triglyceride, 6.4 and 2.4 with HDL-C, and 2.3 and 6.7 with non-HDL-C. Adjusted HRs for CHD were 0.99 (95% CI, 0.94-1.05) with triglyceride, 0.78 (95% CI, 0.74-0.82) with HDL-C, and 1.50 (95% CI, 1.39-1.61) with non-HDL-C. Hazard ratios were at least as strong in participants who did not fast as in those who did. The HR for CHD was 0.35 (95% CI, 0.30-0.42) with a combination of 80 mg/dL lower non-HDL-C and 15 mg/dL higher HDL-C. For the subset with apolipoproteins or directly measured LDL-C, HRs were 1.50 (95% CI, 1.38-1.62) with the ratio non-HDL-C/HDL-C, 1.49 (95% CI, 1.39-1.60) with the ratio apo B/apo AI, 1.42 (95% CI, 1.06-1.91) with non-HDL-C, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.09-1.73) with directly measured LDL-C. Hazard ratios for ischemic stroke were 1.02 (95% CI, 0.94-1.11) with triglyceride, 0.93 (95% CI, 0.84-1.02) with HDL-C, and 1.12 (95% CI, 1.04-1.20) with non-HDL-C. CONCLUSION: Lipid assessment in vascular disease can be simplified by measurement of either total and HDL cholesterol levels or apolipoproteins without the need to fast and without regard to triglyceride.
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In the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration analysis, fasting and nonfasting TG levels were associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease after adjustment for nonlipid risk factors.
“fasting and nonfasting TG levels were associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease”
From The Forgotten Lipids: Triglycerides, Remnant Cholesterol, and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk (2019) · cites this paper as [72]
The Results > Triglyceride section reports an increased CHD risk with triglycerides after adjustment for nonlipid risk factors (HR 1.37), supporting the overall association. It does not report separate fasting and nonfasting estimates for that adjustment alone; the fasting-status estimates it does report are essentially null after further adjustment for HDL-C and non-HDL-C. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration analysis, the association between TG levels and coronary heart disease was attenuated after adjustment for HDL-C.
“However, the association was attenuated after adjustment for HDL-C”
From The Forgotten Lipids: Triglycerides, Remnant Cholesterol, and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk (2019) · cites this paper as [72]
The Results (Triglyceride; page not provided) report that the triglyceride–CHD association weakened after adjustment for both HDL-C and non-HDL-C. The passage does not establish that adjustment for HDL-C alone produced the attenuation described in the claim. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration analysis, the association between TG levels and coronary heart disease was nonsignificant after adjustment for non-HDL-C.
“was nonsignificant after adjustment for non-HDL-C”
From The Forgotten Lipids: Triglycerides, Remnant Cholesterol, and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk (2019) · cites this paper as [72]
The Results > Triglyceride section reports a null association between triglycerides and coronary heart disease after adjustment: HR 0.99 (95% CI, 0.94–1.05). However, that result followed adjustment for both HDL-C and non-HDL-C; the passage does not establish that adjustment for non-HDL-C alone made the association nonsignificant. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, the hazard ratio for coronary heart disease with triglycerides was 1.37 (95% CI, 1.31-1.42) after adjustment for nonlipid factors, but was reduced to 0.99 (95% CI, 0.94-1.05) after adjustment for HDL cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol.
“The hazard ratio for coronary heart disease with triglycerides was 1.37 (95% CI, 1.31-1.42)after adjustment for nonlipid factors, but was reduced to 0.99 (95% CI, 0.94 -1.05) after adjustment for HDL cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol (9).”
From Evaluation and Treatment of Hypertriglyceridemia: An Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guideline (2012) · cites this paper as [9]
Risk associations are similar in nonfasting study populations than in those who did fast.
“Risk associations are similar in nonfasting study populations than in those who did fast [72,74].”
From Quantifying atherogenic lipoproteins for lipid-lowering strategies: Consensus-based recommendations from EAS and EFLM (2020) · cites this paper as [72]
In the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration analysis, TGs were not associated with stroke after adjustment for lipids.
“TGs were not associated with stroke after adjustment for lipids”
From The Forgotten Lipids: Triglycerides, Remnant Cholesterol, and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk (2019) · cites this paper as [72]
A serum triglyceride level of 150 mg/dl usually falls below the 75th percentile in various populations, with well-established differences between racial and ethnic groups.
“A serum triglyceride level of 150 mg/dl (1.7 mmol/liter) usually falls below the 75th percentile in various populations, although there have been well-established differences identified between racial and ethnic groups (6 -9).”
From Evaluation and Treatment of Hypertriglyceridemia: An Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guideline (2012) · cites this paper as [9]
The Results section says mean log-triglyceride levels were broadly similar across the included studies, but gives no percentile for 150 mg/dL. Searches for the 150 mg/dL threshold, the 75th percentile, and racial or ethnic differences found no passage addressing those claims in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.74)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredRecent advances in human genetics, epidemiologic, preclinical, and clinical trial results provide strong support for a causal association between triglycerides, triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, and triglyceride-rich lipoprotein remnants and increased risk of myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke, and aortic valve stenosis.
“Recent advances in human genetics, together with a large body of epidemiologic, preclinical, and clinical trial results, provide strong support for a causal association between triglycerides (TG), TG-rich lipoproteins (TRL), and TRL remnants, and increased risk of myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke, and aortic valve stenosis.”
Over the past three decades, epidemiologic and genetic evidence supports that elevated plasma levels of triglycerides, triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, and triglyceride-rich lipoprotein remnants are causally related to increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease-related events, including myocardial infarction, stroke, and aortic valve stenosis, and all-cause mortality.
“Over the past three decades, epidemiologic and genetic evidence has accumulated to support the concept that elevated levels of plasma TG, TRL, and TRL remnants are causally related to an increased risk of ASCVD-related events—myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and aortic valve stenosis—and all-cause mortality.1,2,17,19,20,24–28”
A meta-analysis by the Emerging Risk Factor Collaboration found that apolipoprotein B gives no additional benefit beyond non-HDL-cholesterol or traditional lipid ratios.
“Recent data from a meta-analysis by the Emerging Risk Factor Collaboration 42 indicate that apo B does not provide any benefit beyond non-HDL-C or traditional lipid ratios.”
From ESC/EAS Guidelines for the management of dyslipidaemias (2011) · cites this paper as [42]
Apo B and the apo B/apo A1 ratio perform at least as well as traditional lipid measures for risk.
“Alternatively apo B and the apo B/apo A1 ratio can be used, which have been found to be at least as good risk markers compared with traditional lipid parameters.42”
From ESC/EAS Guidelines for the management of dyslipidaemias (2011) · cites this paper as [42]
Non-HDL-C has recently emerged as a good surrogate marker for triglycerides and remnant particles.
“Recently, non-HDL-C has turned out to be a good surrogate marker of TG and remnants.42”
From ESC/EAS Guidelines for the management of dyslipidaemias (2011) · cites this paper as [42]
After adjustment for HDL cholesterol, there is no significant association between triglycerides and CVD.
“After adjustment for HDL cholesterol, there is no significant association between triglycerides and CVD.52”
From European Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice (version 2012) (2012) · cites this paper as [52]
Very high HDL-C levels are consistently not associated with atheroprotection.
“Very high levels of HDL-C have consistently not been found to be associated with atheroprotection. 90”
From 2016 ESC/EAS Guidelines for the Management of Dyslipidaemias (2016) · cites this paper as [90]
Very high levels of HDL-C are not associated with atheroprotection.
“Very high levels of HDL-C have consistently not been found to be associated with atheroprotection.90”
From 2016 ESC/EAS Guidelines for the Management of Dyslipidaemias (2016) · cites this paper as [90]
Recent meta-analysis indicates apoB does not provide benefit beyond non-HDL-C or traditional lipid ratios.
“Recent data from a meta-analysis 83,90 indicate that apoB does not provide any benefit beyond non-HDL-C or traditional lipid ratios.101”
From 2016 ESC/EAS Guidelines for the Management of Dyslipidaemias (2016) · cites this paper as [90]
The relationship between HDL-C and cardiovascular risk is not linear; no further improvement in prognosis is seen with HDL-C levels above approximately 60 mg/dl (1.5 mmol/l).
“The relationship between HDL-C and cardiovascular risk is not linear; for instance, no further improvement in prognosis is seen with HDL-C levels above ~60 mg/dl (1.5 mmol/l) (Fig. 1) [3].”
From HDL cholesterol: reappraisal of its clinical relevance (2017) · cites this paper as [3]
After adjustment for standard risk factors and for HDL-C and non-HDL-C, the associations of triglycerides with CVD and stroke were no longer significant.
“With adjustment for age and sex, triglycerides showed a strong, stepwise association with both CVD and ischemic stroke; however, after adjustment for standard risk factors and for HDL-C and non-HDL-C, the associations for both CVD and stroke were no longer significant.”
From Triglycerides and Cardiovascular Disease: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association (2011) · cites this paper as [17]
Effect modification by HDL-C, LDL-C, and T2DM could obscure a modest but significant effect of triglycerides on CVD risk.
“Such an effect modification could obscure a modest but significant effect, as demonstrated recently.17”
From Triglycerides and Cardiovascular Disease: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association (2011) · cites this paper as [17]
With adjustment for age and sex, triglycerides showed a strong, stepwise association with both CVD and ischemic stroke.
“With adjustment for age and sex, triglycerides showed a strong, stepwise association with both CVD and ischemic stroke; however, after adjustment for standard risk factors and for HDL-C and non-HDL-C, the associations for both CVD and stroke were no longer significant.”
From Triglycerides and Cardiovascular Disease: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association (2011) · cites this paper as [17]
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- Authors
- The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration*
- Venue
- JAMA
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 2009-11-11
- Volume
- 302
- Issue
- 18
- Pages
- 1993
- ISSN
- 0002-9955 (ISSN-L)
- 0098-7484
- PMC
- PMC3284229
- OpenAlex
- W2127427274
- Cited by
- 2,731
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 89 · 2025: 116 · 2024: 150 · 2023: 178 · 2022: 169 · 2021: 188 · 2020: 156 · 2019: 177 · 2018: 188 · 2017: 175 · 2016: 163 · 2015: 187 · 2014: 198 · 2013: 189 · 2012: 160
- FWCI
- 136.20
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- JAMA (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Pure Amsterdam UMC (publishedVersion)
- Amsterdam UMC (VU Amsterdam) - Institutional Repository (publishedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- University of Southern Denmark Research Portal (University of Southern Denmark) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University) (submittedVersion)
- Research Portal (Queen's University Belfast) (submittedVersion)
- Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (submittedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (submittedVersion)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion)
- OPUS (Augsburg University) (submittedVersion)
- Padua Research Archive (University of Padova) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Wellcome Trust
- British Heart Foundation (RG/08/013/25942, RG/08/014, RG/07/008/23674, RG/08/014/24067)
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/G007438/1)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Lipoproteins and Cardiovascular Health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
- Keywords
- apolipoproteins, vascular risk, coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, non-HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, apolipoprotein A-I, apolipoprotein B, fasting state, lipid-lowering therapy, cardiovascular risk factors, prospective cohort, meta-analysis
- MeSH terms
- Apolipoproteins, Coronary Disease, Female, Humans, Lipids, Cholesterol, HDL, Male, Middle Aged, Regression Analysis, Risk Factors, Triglycerides, Vascular Diseases, Proportional Hazards Models, Stroke
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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