The DOI matches its Crossref record; 87 of the 87 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 2 of the 35 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Facial aging trajectories: A common shape pattern in male and female faces is disrupted after menopause
Open accessAbstract
Objectives: Despite variation in lifestyle and environment, first signs of human facial aging show between the ages of 20–30 years. It is a cumulative process of changes in the skin, soft tissue, and skeleton of the face. As quantifications of facial aging in living humans are still scarce, we set out to study age‐related changes in three‐dimensional facial shape using geometric morphometrics. Materials and methods: We collected surface scans of 88 human faces (aged 26–90 years) from the coastal town Split (Croatia) and neighboring islands. Based on a geometric morphometric analysis of 585 measurement points (landmarks and semilandmarks), we modeled sex‐specific trajectories of average facial aging. Results: Age‐related facial shape change was similar in both sexes until around age 50, at which time the female aging trajectory turned sharply. The overall magnitude of facial shape change (aging rate) was higher in women than men, especially in early postmenopause. Aging was generally associated with a flatter face, sagged soft tissue (“broken” jawline), deeper nasolabial folds, smaller visible areas of the eyes, thinner lips, and longer nose and ears. In postmenopausal women, facial aging was best predicted by the years since last menstruation and mainly attributable to bone resorption in the mandible. Discussion: With high spatial and temporal resolution, we were able to extract a shared facial aging pattern in women and men, and its divergence after menopause. This fully quantitative three‐dimensional analysis of human facial aging may not only find applications in forensic and ancient human facial reconstructions, but shall include lifestyle and endocrinological measures, and also reach out to studies of social perception.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Using 3D surface scans and geometric morphometrics, this study finds a shared average facial aging pattern in men and premenopausal women, with female faces aging faster. After menopause, the female trajectory bends sharply and is better predicted by years since last menstruation than by chronological age, mainly reflecting mandibular bone resorption.
Key findings
- Among 88 Croatian adults (32 men aged 27.7–82.9 years; 56 women aged 26.0–89.8 years), age-related facial shape change was similar in both sexes until about age 50, when the female aging trajectory turned sharply.
- Male facial shape regression on age was significant (p < .001), explaining 7% of total shape variation and 38% of regression-score variance; in women younger than 55 years it explained 15% of total shape variance and 40% of regression-score variance (p < .0001).
- In women beyond age 50, chronological age had little explanatory power (2% explained variance, not significant), whereas time since last menstruation predicted 5% of total facial shape variance and 35% of regression scores (p < .0001), mainly via reduced mandibular size, particularly the chin.
- Female facial aging rate was higher than male: about twice as fast before age 50 and after age 60, and up to three times faster between ages 50 and 60.
Methods
- Cross-sectional sample of 88 Croatian adults from Split and the islands Korčula and Vis, collected as part of the 10,001 Dalmatians project; faces were surface scanned with an Artec MHT scanner between May 2013 and May 2014.
- Each face was parameterized by 585 landmarks and semilandmarks (40 fixed landmarks, 64 curve semilandmarks, 481 surface semilandmarks), slid to minimize bending energy, superimposed by Generalized Procrustes Analysis, and symmetrized.
- Sex-specific average aging trajectories were estimated by local linear regressions in a moving window of 23 individuals; principal component analysis summarized age-specific mean shapes, and aging rate was computed as the average amount of shape change in Procrustes distance per year.
Limitations
- The authors state that because of the sample structure, they did not measure individual aging sensu stricto but estimated sex-specific average patterns, and could not assess associations with individual lifestyle, endocrine status, or molecular aging markers.
- The authors note the sample is a relatively homogeneous Croatian “genetic isolate,” which they argue is appropriate as a proxy for longitudinal data and may generalize to other European-descent populations, but they call for further study of within- and between-population variation and environmental factors.
- Evident from the text: the sample is modest (88 faces; 26 postmenopausal women), cross-sectional, and some figure visualizations extrapolate beyond the sampled age range, so individual-level and longitudinal inferences are limited.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
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Cites
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Verification
Claims the paper makes
2 of 35 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Bone resorption is primarily controlled by estrogen in both sexes.
“Both hormones are known to affect bone metabolism, but bone resorption is primarily controlled by estrogen in both sexes (Clarke & Khosla, 2010; Falahati‐Nini et al., 2000; Khosla, Melton, & Riggs, 2001).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked- cites Clarke & Khosla, 2010 source
- cites Falahati‐Nini et al., 2000 source
The study summary (p. 1) and conclusion (p. 7) identify estrogen as the dominant sex steroid regulating bone resorption in normal elderly men. The Introduction (p. 1) says estrogen’s role in women’s bone metabolism is well established, but does not specifically establish that estrogen primarily controls bone resorption in women; the study itself examined only elderly men. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites Khosla, Melton, & Riggs, 2001 source
- Interpretationreasoning
Postmenopausal facial aging is mainly attributable to bone resorption in the mandible.
“In postmenopausal women, facial aging was best predicted by the years since last menstruation and mainly attributable to bone resorption in the mandible.”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · hedged
“This sex difference presumably results from the various hormonal changes during menopause and andropause, which are dominated by the estrogen reduction in females and the testosterone reduction in males.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked- cites Clarke & Khosla, 2010 source
- cites Falahati‐Nini et al., 2000 source
The study description (p. 1) and discussion (Table 4, p. 7) concern hormone-related bone resorption in elderly men, not facial aging or mandibular bone in postmenopausal women. Searches for facial aging, mandibular resorption, and years since last menstruation found no passage addressing the attributed claim. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites Khosla, Melton, & Riggs, 2001 source
- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Rests on an assumption: Self-reported menopause status and time since last menstruation are accurate.
- Rests on an assumption: Time since last menstruation is a valid proxy for menopausal hormonal changes.
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · hedged
- Findingown data
Aging is associated with a drooping tip of the nose.
“Further characteristics of advanced age were relatively thin lips, a drooping tip of the nose, and lengthened ears (Figures 4 and 5).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Findingown data
Between 50 and 60 years, the sex difference in aging rate is up to three times faster in females.
“Before age 50 and also after age 60, female faces age—on average—about twice as fast as male faces; between 50 and 60 years, this sex difference in aging rate is even more pronounced (up to three times faster).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Findingown data
Aging is associated with lengthened ears.
“Further characteristics of advanced age were relatively thin lips, a drooping tip of the nose, and lengthened ears (Figures 4 and 5).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Findingown data
Aging is associated with thinner lips.
“Aging was generally associated with a flatter face, sagged soft tissue (“broken” jawline), deeper nasolabial folds, smaller visible areas of the eyes, thinner lips, and longer nose and ears.”
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
“Further characteristics of advanced age were relatively thin lips, a drooping tip of the nose, and lengthened ears (Figures 4 and 5).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
- Findingown data
Our results do not confirm a decreasing mid-facial width-to-height ratio as claimed by Hehman, Leitner, and Freeman (2014).
“However, our results do not seem to confirm a decreasing mid‐facial width‐to‐height ratio as claimed by Hehman, Leitner, and Freeman (2014).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Hehman, Leitner, and Freeman (2014) source
- Findingown data
Women generally had a faster average rate of facial aging than men.
“Women generally had a faster average rate of facial aging than men, but it started to increase considerably at about 52–55 years; it decreased from 57 to 60 years and increased again thereafter.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The average trajectory of female facial aging bends at approximately 50 years.
“Despite considerable individual variation in age at menopause, we found that the average trajectory of female facial aging bends at approximately 50 years (Figure 3), which fits well with published menopausal data.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
After menopause, women show a stronger reduction in the jaw area, particularly in the chin, compared with men.
“After menopause, women show a stronger reduction in the jaw area, particularly in the chin, compared with men.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Rests on an assumption: Self-reported menopause status and time since last menstruation are accurate.
- Findingown data
Aging is associated with deeper nasolabial folds.
“Aging was generally associated with a flatter face, sagged soft tissue (“broken” jawline), deeper nasolabial folds, smaller visible areas of the eyes, thinner lips, and longer nose and ears.”
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
“In both sexes, increasing age was associated with a flattening of the face as well as an overall sagging of soft tissue resulting in a “broken” jawline, deepened nasolabial folds, and smaller visible areas of the eyes.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
- Findingown data
Postmenopausal female aging includes some soft-tissue sagging in the orbital region and along the jaw line.
“This pattern of postmenopausal female aging mainly consisted of a reduced mandibular size, particularly the chin (Figure 6), and of some soft‐tissue sagging in the orbital region and along the jaw line.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Rests on an assumption: Self-reported menopause status and time since last menstruation are accurate.
- Findingown data
Aging is associated with a flatter face.
“Aging was generally associated with a flatter face, sagged soft tissue (“broken” jawline), deeper nasolabial folds, smaller visible areas of the eyes, thinner lips, and longer nose and ears.”
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
“In both sexes, increasing age was associated with a flattening of the face as well as an overall sagging of soft tissue resulting in a “broken” jawline, deepened nasolabial folds, and smaller visible areas of the eyes.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
- Findingown data
Aging is associated with smaller visible areas of the eyes.
“Aging was generally associated with a flatter face, sagged soft tissue (“broken” jawline), deeper nasolabial folds, smaller visible areas of the eyes, thinner lips, and longer nose and ears.”
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
“In both sexes, increasing age was associated with a flattening of the face as well as an overall sagging of soft tissue resulting in a “broken” jawline, deepened nasolabial folds, and smaller visible areas of the eyes.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
- Findingown data
The first three principal components accounted for 92% of the variation among age-specific mean shapes.
“The first three principal components (PCs) accounted for 92% of the variation among age‐specific mean shapes.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Aging is associated with sagged soft tissue resulting in a "broken" jawline.
“Aging was generally associated with a flatter face, sagged soft tissue (“broken” jawline), deeper nasolabial folds, smaller visible areas of the eyes, thinner lips, and longer nose and ears.”
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
“In both sexes, increasing age was associated with a flattening of the face as well as an overall sagging of soft tissue resulting in a “broken” jawline, deepened nasolabial folds, and smaller visible areas of the eyes.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
- Findingown data
In postmenopausal women, facial aging was best predicted by the years since last menstruation.
“In postmenopausal women, facial aging was best predicted by the years since last menstruation and mainly attributable to bone resorption in the mandible.”
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
“In contrast to chronological age, however, the time since the last menstruation predicted 5% of total facial shape variance in postmenopausal women and 35% of the regression scores (p < .0001).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Rests on an assumption: Self-reported menopause status and time since last menstruation are accurate.
- Rests on an assumption: Time since last menstruation is a valid proxy for menopausal hormonal changes.
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
- Findingown data
The male aging trajectory was approximately linear.
“Within the first two PCs, the male aging trajectory was approximately linear and parallel to the first segment of the female trajectory, which extended approximately linearly from 35 to 50 years of age (even though the two differ somewhat in direction along PC 3; Figure 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Findingown data
The pattern of postmenopausal female aging mainly consisted of a reduced mandibular size, particularly the chin.
“This pattern of postmenopausal female aging mainly consisted of a reduced mandibular size, particularly the chin (Figure 6), and of some soft‐tissue sagging in the orbital region and along the jaw line.”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
“After menopause, women show a stronger reduction in the jaw area, particularly in the chin, compared with men.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Rests on an assumption: Self-reported menopause status and time since last menstruation are accurate.
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
- Findingown data
The linear regression of face shape on age in females younger than 55 years accounted for 15% of total shape variance and 40% of the variance in the regression score (p < .0001).
“The linear regression of face shape on age in females younger than 55 years accounted for 15% of total shape variance and for 40% of the variance in the regression score (p < .0001).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Findingown data
PC 1 discriminated male and female configurations well.
“Despite strong variation in individual face shape, PC 1 discriminated male and female configurations well.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The male aging trajectory was parallel to the first segment of the female trajectory.
“Within the first two PCs, the male aging trajectory was approximately linear and parallel to the first segment of the female trajectory, which extended approximately linearly from 35 to 50 years of age (even though the two differ somewhat in direction along PC 3; Figure 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Findingown data
Women's rate of facial aging started to increase considerably at about 52-55 years.
“Women generally had a faster average rate of facial aging than men, but it started to increase considerably at about 52–55 years; it decreased from 57 to 60 years and increased again thereafter.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The female aging trajectory extended approximately linearly from 35 to 50 years of age.
“Within the first two PCs, the male aging trajectory was approximately linear and parallel to the first segment of the female trajectory, which extended approximately linearly from 35 to 50 years of age (even though the two differ somewhat in direction along PC 3; Figure 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Interpretationcitation
The linearity of the trajectories indicates constant patterns of facial shape change in the assessed age interval.
“The linearity of the trajectories indicates constant patterns of facial shape change in the assessed age interval (Huttegger & Mitteroecker, 2011).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Huttegger & Mitteroecker, 2011 source
- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Interpretationreasoning
Variation in the age at menopause contributes to individual variation in facial appearance and aging.
“These results, along with the significant association of facial shape with years since last menstruation, suggest that variation in the age at menopause contributes to individual variation in facial appearance and aging.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
The evidence is still largely qualitative for faces of living humans.
“Despite some recent efforts to quantify age‐related shape features of the face beyond single regions (Chen et al., 2015; Mydlová, Dupej, Koudelová, & Velemínská, 2015), the evidence is still largely qualitative for faces of living humans.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Chen et al., 2015 source
- cites Mydlová, Dupej, Koudelová, & Velemínská, 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Estrogen loss affects the jawbones.
“Estrogen loss also affects the jawbones (Ejiri et al., 2008; Mutneja, Dhawan, Raina, & Sharma, 2012).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Ejiri et al., 2008 source
- cites Mutneja, Dhawan, Raina, & Sharma, 2012
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Combining the scarce quantitative studies is hindered by the diverse ethnic backgrounds of the participants in these studies.
“Combining the scarce quantitative studies is also hindered by the diverse ethnic backgrounds of the participants in these studies (Vashi, Buainain De Castro Maymone, & Kundu, 2016).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Vashi, Buainain De Castro Maymone, & Kundu, 2016
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationreasoning
The sex difference in postmenopausal jaw reduction presumably results from hormonal changes during menopause and andropause, dominated by estrogen reduction in females and testosterone reduction in males.
“This sex difference presumably results from the various hormonal changes during menopause and andropause, which are dominated by the estrogen reduction in females and the testosterone reduction in males.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Rests on an assumption: Self-reported menopause status and time since last menstruation are accurate.
- Rests on an assumption: Time since last menstruation is a valid proxy for menopausal hormonal changes.
- Premisecitation
Estrogen loss is closely linked to sagging skin, reduced skin thickness, and other degenerative changes of dermal elastic tissue due to loss of underlying collagen.
“Estrogen loss also seems to be closely linked to sagging skin, reduced skin thickness, and other degenerative changes of dermal elastic tissue due to the loss of the underlying collagen (Lephart, 2018; Tobin, 2017).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Interpretationreasoning
The much larger reduction of estrogen in women than in men may cause the more pronounced female bone resorption.
“The much larger reduction of estrogen in women than in men may thus cause the more pronounced female bone resorption.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Rests on an assumption: Self-reported menopause status and time since last menstruation are accurate.
- Rests on an assumption: Time since last menstruation is a valid proxy for menopausal hormonal changes.
- Interpretationcitation
The temporal pattern of female facial aging fits well to findings on hormone changes in a longitudinal study by Randolph et al. (2011).
“The temporal pattern fits well to findings on hormone changes in a longitudinal study by Randolph et al. (2011).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Randolph et al. (2011)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationcitation
There is no reason to assume that the aging pattern presented will not generalize to other populations of European descent.
“However, based on population history (Rudan, 2006), there is no reason to assume that the aging pattern presented, will not generalize to other populations of European descent.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Rudan, 2006
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Study design and conductreasoning
The study could not assess the association of facial aging with individual lifestyle parameters, endocrine status, or molecular aging markers.
“We could thus not assess the association of facial aging with individual lifestyle parameters, endocrine status, or molecular aging markers (Krištić et al., 2014).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Krištić et al., 2014 source
- Study design and conductcitation
The homogeneous nature of the Eastern Adriatic communities, with reduced diversity of environmental exposure and genetic heterogeneity, makes the cross-sectional design an appropriate proxy for longitudinal data.
“The region of the Eastern Adriatic in Croatia represents a well characterized “genetic isolate” population (Rudan, Campbell, & Rudan, 1999): Its comparably homogeneous nature of the communities with reduced diversity of exposure to environmental factors and of genetic heterogeneity, makes our specific cross‐sectional design an appropriate proxy for longitudinal data until they become available.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Rudan, Campbell, & Rudan, 1999
- The authors state this as an assumption: The threshold for detecting patterns due to biological causes of facial shape variation (such as aging) is lower in the Eastern Adriatic genetic isolate than in a more heterogeneous reference population.
- Premisecitation
The Eastern Adriatic region in Croatia represents a well-characterized 'genetic isolate' population.
“The region of the Eastern Adriatic in Croatia represents a well characterized “genetic isolate” population (Rudan, Campbell, & Rudan, 1999): Its comparably homogeneous nature of the communities with reduced diversity of exposure to environmental factors and of genetic heterogeneity, makes our specific cross‐sectional design an appropriate proxy for longitudinal data until they become available.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Rudan, Campbell, & Rudan, 1999
- It may state two separate claims as one. 18
- Probably not a substantial claim. 13
It may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown dataThe overall magnitude of facial shape change (aging rate) was higher in women than men, especially in early postmenopause.
“The overall magnitude of facial shape change (aging rate) was higher in women than men, especially in early postmenopause.”
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
“The female rate of facial aging (the average amount of shape change per year) is higher than the male rate (Figure 7).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Rests on an assumption: The facial aging pattern observed in this Croatian sample applies to humans generally.
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
It may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown dataThe time since the last menstruation predicted 5% of total facial shape variance in postmenopausal women and 35% of the regression scores (p < .0001).
“In contrast to chronological age, however, the time since the last menstruation predicted 5% of total facial shape variance in postmenopausal women and 35% of the regression scores (p < .0001).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Rests on an assumption: Self-reported menopause status and time since last menstruation are accurate.
- Rests on an assumption: Time since last menstruation is a valid proxy for menopausal hormonal changes.
It may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown dataWomen's rate of facial aging decreased from 57 to 60 years and increased again thereafter.
“Women generally had a faster average rate of facial aging than men, but it started to increase considerably at about 52–55 years; it decreased from 57 to 60 years and increased again thereafter.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown dataBefore age 50 and after age 60, female faces age on average about twice as fast as male faces.
“Before age 50 and also after age 60, female faces age—on average—about twice as fast as male faces; between 50 and 60 years, this sex difference in aging rate is even more pronounced (up to three times faster).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
It may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown dataThe rate of facial aging (average magnitude of facial shape change) was relatively constant in males and increased only after 60-65 years.
“Independent of changes in aging pattern, we found that the rate of aging (the average magnitude of facial shape change, regardless of the pattern of shape change) was relatively constant in males and increased only after 60–65 years.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown dataThe linear regression of face shape on age in males was statistically significant (p < .001) and accounted for 7% of total shape variation and 38% of the variance in the regression score.
“The linear regression of face shape on age in males was statistically significant (p < .001) and accounted for 7% of total shape variation and for 38% of the variance in the regression score (projection of shape vectors on the vector of regression coefficients).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
It may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown dataAge-related facial shape change was similar in both sexes until around age 50, at which time the female aging trajectory turned sharply.
“Age‐related facial shape change was similar in both sexes until around age 50, at which time the female aging trajectory turned sharply.”
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
“The female trajectory consisted of two approximately linear segments, separated by a sharp bend at about 50 years of age.”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · boosted
“We demonstrated a shared average facial aging pattern in men and premenopausal women, but an average pace of aging twice as high in females than in males.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
- Rests on an assumption: The facial aging pattern observed in this Croatian sample applies to humans generally.
- Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
It may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown dataThe regression of face shape on age in women beyond 50 years of age had little explanatory power (2% explained variance) and was not statistically significant.
“The regression of face shape on age in women beyond 50 years of age had little explanatory power (2% explained variance) and was not statistically significant.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
It may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown dataThe female aging trajectory changed starkly in direction after age 50, indicating a different facial aging pattern.
“Thereafter, however, the female aging trajectory changed starkly in direction, indicating a different facial aging pattern (Figure 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
PremisecitationCollagen loss is associated with the number of postmenopausal years, not chronological age.
“Further support comes from reported associations of collagen loss with the number of postmenopausal years, not chronological age (reviewed in Tobin, 2017).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Tobin, 2017 source
It may state two separate claims as one.
PremisecitationSerum estradiol concentration decreases 2 years before the final menstrual period, has a maximal rate of change around the final menstrual period, and after another 2 years stabilizes at about one third of the level before the decrease.
“They reported a decrease of serum estradiol concentration 2 years before the final menstrual period and a maximal rate of change around the final menstrual period. After another 2 years, the concentration stabilizes at about one third of the level before the decrease.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Randolph et al. (2011)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
Study design and conductown dataThe local linear regressions in the second half of the female trajectory were somewhat unstable.
“This is also reflected by the somewhat unstable local linear regressions in the second half of the female trajectory (Figure 3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
PremisecitationChinese people of the same chronological age differed by about plus or minus 6 years in terms of 'facial age', and the amount of deviation increases after age 40.
“Similarly, Chen et al. (2015) found that Chinese people of the same chronological age differed by about plus or minus 6 years in terms of “facial age” (i.e., the age predicted from facial morphology) and that the amount of deviation increases after age 40.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Chen et al. (2015) source
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
InterpretationcitationOur findings resemble the 3D visualizations of facial aging from Chinese and Czech samples.
“Our findings resemble the 3D visualizations of facial aging from Chinese and Czech samples (Chen et al., 2015; Mydlová et al., 2015) as well as the qualitative and quantitative descriptions of single regions as reviewed in the introductory paragraphs.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Chen et al., 2015 source
- cites Mydlová et al., 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
PremisecitationThe epidemic of coronary heart disease in industrialized countries following increased consumption of dietary fats has a greater toll on males than females, accounting for 26% of male excess life years lost in the United States.
“Also, the epidemic of coronary heart disease in industrialized countries following several decades after increased consumption of dietary fats seems to have a greater toll on males than females (Lawlor, Ebrahim, & Davey Smith, 2001), accounting for 26% of male excess life years lost in the United States (Kruger & Nesse, 2004).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
Premisecitation30% of skin collagen is lost in the first five postmenopausal years, with an average decline of 2% per year over a period of 15 years.
“Brincat et al. (2005) also concluded, based on a wide literature review, that 30% of skin collagen is lost in the first five postmenopausal years, with an average decline of 2 % per year over a period of 15 years.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Brincat et al. (2005) source
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
InterpretationcitationThe geometric morphometric approach to studying facial aging may contribute to facial imaging and reconstruction in forensic anthropology.
“Our geometric morphometric approach to study facial aging may contribute to facial imaging and reconstruction in forensic anthropology meeting the increasing demands for scientific and statistical rigor in case analysis and reporting (Algee‐Hewitt, Kim, & Hughes, 2018).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Algee‐Hewitt, Kim, & Hughes, 2018
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
PremisecitationHigher male mortality rates are found for all age categories in Croatian data from 1998 to 2002, and this holds true cross-nationally.
“Kruger and Nesse (2006) calculated this ratio for Croatian data from 1998 to 2002, and found higher male mortality rates for all age categories, which holds true cross‐nationally (Kruger & Nesse, 2004).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Kruger and Nesse (2006)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Kruger & Nesse, 2004 source
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
PremisecitationClaes et al. (2014) limited the age of their participants to between 18 and 40 to minimize age-related variation in facial morphology.
“Some quantitative approaches do not explicitly represent facial aging: For instance, in their landmark paper on modeling facial appearance from DNA, Claes et al. (2014) limited the age of their participants to the ages between 18 and 40 to “minimize age‐related variation in facial morphology” (p. 10).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Claes et al. (2014) source
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
PremisecitationMenopause accelerates biological aging, as found using methylation levels as epigenetic aging markers.
“Similarly, using methylation levels as epigenetic aging markers, Levine and colleagues (2016) found that menopause accelerates biological aging.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Levine and colleagues (2016)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
It may state two separate claims as one.
InterpretationreasoningA single linear shape regression across the whole female sample would have overlooked the nonlinear aging pattern in females; only local regressions made it possible to detect it.
“A single linear shape regression across the whole female sample, as performed in earlier studies, would have overlooked this signal; only the use of local regressions made it possible to detect the nonlinear aging pattern in females.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
It may state two separate claims as one.
Study design and conductown dataThe study did not measure individual aging sensu stricto, but estimated sex-specific average patterns of facial aging in this population.
“Due to our sample structure, we did not measure individual aging sensu stricto, but estimated the sex‐specific average patterns of facial aging in this population.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
PremisecitationAfrican faces tend to have thicker facial tissue than any other group, and Japanese faces have thinner tissues than most other groups except for the side of the head.
“For instance, African faces tend to have thicker facial tissue than any other group, and Japanese faces have thinner tissues than most other groups except for the side of the head (Wilkinson, 2004).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Wilkinson, 2004 source
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
PremisecitationThe average age at natural menopause in European countries is 50.5 years.
“In a meta‐analysis on age at natural menopause, European countries showed an average age of 50.5 years (Schoenaker, Jackson, Rowlands, & Mishra, 2014).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Schoenaker, Jackson, Rowlands, & Mishra, 2014 source
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
InterpretationcitationPart of the sex difference in mortality is explained by behavioral differences attributable to larger male reproductive variation and the resulting evolutionarily shaped preference for risk taking.
“Part of this is explained by behavioral differences that can be attributed to larger male reproductive variation and the resulting evolutionarily shaped preference for risk taking.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The paper relies on this without support.
Cross-sectional age differences in facial shape reflect longitudinal aging trajectories.
“The sequences of age‐ and sex‐specific average shapes, as predicted by the local regressions, were interpreted as the male and female trajectories of average facial aging.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Self-reported menopause status and time since last menstruation are accurate.
“Twenty‐six women reported that they were postmenopausal and when they had their last menstruation; none of them had hormonal replacement therapy.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The facial aging pattern observed in this Croatian sample applies to humans generally.
“Facial aging trajectories: A common shape pattern in male and female faces is disrupted after menopause”
The paper relies on this without support.
Time since last menstruation is a valid proxy for menopausal hormonal changes.
“In contrast to chronological age, however, the time since the last menstruation predicted 5% of total facial shape variance in postmenopausal women and 35% of the regression scores (p < .0001).”
The paper relies on this without support.
Physiological and lifestyle data are usually unavailable in forensic case identification.
“Nonetheless, the average facial aging pattern is most relevant to aid forensic case identification, where physiological and lifestyle data usually are unavailable.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The threshold for detecting patterns due to biological causes of facial shape variation (such as aging) is lower in the Eastern Adriatic genetic isolate than in a more heterogeneous reference population.
“Along these lines, we expect the threshold for detecting patterns due to biological causes of facial shape variation (such as aging) to be lower than in a more heterogenous reference population.”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Windhager, S., Mitteroecker, P., Rupić, I., Lauc, T., Polašek, O., & Schaefer, K.
- Affiliations
- University of Vienna (AT)
- Department of Theoretical Biology University of Vienna Austria
- Dental Clinic Apolonija Zagreb Croatia
- University of Zagreb (HR)
- Gen-info (HR)
- Department of Evolutionary Anthropology University of Vienna Austria
- Corresponding author
- Windhager, Sonja
- Venue
- American Journal of Physical Anthropology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2019-06-12
- Volume
- 169
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 678-688
- ISSN
- 0002-9483 (ISSN-L)
- 1096-8644
- PMC
- PMC6771603
- OpenAlex
- W2951808774
- Semantic Scholar
- cd907a8e5c073caafb9b32e69424084cdba74b49
- Cited by
- 128
- References
- 86
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 27 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 21 · 2021: 15 · 2020: 9
- FWCI
- 8.73
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- American Journal of Physical Anthropology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Austrian Science Fund (P29397)
- Hrvatska Zaklada za Znanost (05‐PAR‐02‐2016)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Morphological variations and asymmetry
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology (arts and humanities) › Forensic Anthropology and Bioarchaeology Studies
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition › Face recognition and analysis
- Keywords
- facial aging, menopause, sex differences, geometric morphometrics, mandibular resorption, nasolabial fold, facial soft tissue, facial reconstruction, skeletal remains
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Anthropology, Physical, Face, Female, Humans, Male, Menopause, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-11-10, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-11-10 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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