Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
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Abstract
What happens next?: Four months into the severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak, we still do not know enough about postrecovery immune protection and environmental and seasonal influences on transmission to predict transmission dynamics accurately. However, we do know that humans are seasonally afflicted by other, less severe coronaviruses. Kissler et al. used existing data to build a deterministic model of multiyear interactions between existing coronaviruses, with a focus on the United States, and used this to project the potential epidemic dynamics and pressures on critical care capacity over the next 5 years. The long-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 strongly depends on immune responses and immune cross-reactions between the coronaviruses, as well as the timing of introduction of the new virus into a population. One scenario is that a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 could occur as far into the future as 2025. Science , this issue p. 860
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COVID-19 is an endemic.
“Now that there is unanimity that COVID-19 is an endemic (BBC, 2020b; Kissler et al., 2020)”
From Understanding coronaphobia (2020) · cites this paper as Kissler et al., 2020
In “If immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is not permanent, it will likely enter into regular circulation” (page not provided), the paper models long-term circulation as one possible outcome. It does not say COVID-19 was already endemic or that there was unanimity on the matter; it also models elimination under long-term immunity. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredA sensitivity analysis with a seasonal component such that transmission is 20% higher in winter than in summer did not qualitatively affect the results.
“As a sensitivity analysis, we also ran model projections with a seasonal component such that transmission is 20% higher in winter than in summer (22), but this did not qualitatively affect our results (fig. S24 and table S5).”
From Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England (2021) · cites this paper as [22]
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Sopirala, M. M. (2021) · Current Opinion in Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1097/qco.0000000000000736 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
- Authors
- Kissler, S. M., Tedijanto, C., Goldstein, E., Grad, Y. H., & Lipsitch, M.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lipsitch, Marc
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2020-05-22
- Volume
- 368
- Issue
- 6493
- Pages
- 860-868
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- PMC
- PMC7164482
- OpenAlex
- W3015988827
- Cited by
- 2,611
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 55 · 2025: 76 · 2024: 102 · 2023: 180 · 2022: 361 · 2021: 840 · 2020: 991 · 2019: 3 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 94.44
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U54GM088558)
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (T32AI007535)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2 transmission, seasonal transmission, social distancing, critical care capacity, herd immunity, duration of immunity, cross-immunity, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-HKU1, COVID-19 resurgence, serological surveillance
- MeSH terms
- Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Models, Biological, Pneumonia, Viral, Seasons, Coronavirus Infections, Disease Transmission, Infectious, Coronavirus OC43, Human, Pandemics
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