Emotion and decision-making: affect-driven belief systems in anxiety and depression
Open accessAbstract
Emotion processing and decision-making are integral aspects of daily life. However, our understanding of the interaction between these constructs is limited. In this review, we summarize theoretical approaches that link emotion and decision-making, and focus on research with anxious or depressed individuals to show how emotions can interfere with decision-making. We integrate the emotional framework based on valence and arousal with a Bayesian approach to decision-making in terms of probability and value processing. We discuss how studies of individuals with emotional dysfunctions provide evidence that alterations of decision-making can be viewed in terms of altered probability and value computation. We argue that the probabilistic representation of belief states in the context of partially observable Markov decision processes provides a useful approach to examine alterations in probability and value representation in individuals with anxiety and depression, and outline the broader implications of this approach.
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Recent models of interoception and emotion incorporate Bayesian concepts (e.g. predictive coding), wherein the brain makes sense of dynamic changes in a wealth of viscerosensory information by predicting likely causes of those changes.
“Thus, recent models of interoception and emotion incorporate Bayesian concepts (e.g.predictive coding), wherein the brain makes sense of dynamic changes in a wealth of viscerosensory information by predicting likely causes of those changes: prior interoceptive experiences are deployed as predictions of probable interoceptive experience, to yield 'prediction errors', i.e., the difference between an”
From Physiological feelings (2019) · cites this paper as Paulus and Yu, 2012
The “Bayesian models of decision-making and control” section describes Bayesian models that link beliefs with observations and conceptualize emotions as influencing that process (page unavailable). It does not describe predictive coding of changing viscerosensory information, inferred causes of those changes, or interoceptive prediction errors; searches for those terms found no supporting passage in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn predictive processing terms, there may be an over-precision of negative predictions about the future in anxiety, coupled with an inability to down-regulate error signals related to ambiguous stimuli.
“In predictive processing terms, there may be an over-precision (49, 62, 63) of negative predictions about the future, coupled with an inability to down-regulate error signals related to ambiguous stimuli.”
From Predictive coding and neurocomputational psychiatry: a mechanistic framework for understanding mental disorders (2026) · cites this paper as [63]
In “A conceptual framework for the influence of affect-driven belief systems on decision-making in anxiety and depression” (page unavailable), the paper suggests that anxious individuals may over-represent low-probability, high-threat outcomes. That supports a bias toward negative possibilities, but it does not specifically describe over-precise predictions about the future or an inability to down-regulate error signals for ambiguous stimuli. (LLM, conf=0.81)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
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- Authors
- Paulus, M. P., & Yu, A. J.
- Affiliations
- University of California San Diego (US)
- Corresponding author
- Paulus, Martin P.
- Venue
- Trends in Cognitive Sciences
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2012-09
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 476-483
- ISSN
- 1364-6613 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3446252
- OpenAlex
- W2072888936
- Cited by
- 287
- References
- 110
- Citations by year
- 2026: 18 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 28 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 21 · 2021: 39 · 2020: 29 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 15 · 2017: 23 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 1.09
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Trends in Cognitive Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- TUbilio (Technical University of Darmstadt) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Drug Abuse (R01DA016663, R01DA018307, R03DA030440, P20DA027843, R01DA027797)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Anxiety, Depression, Psychometrics, Treatment, Cognitive Processes
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Keywords
- emotional decision-making, anxiety, depression, Bayesian decision making, valence and arousal, partially observable Markov decision processes, belief states, emotional dysfunction, mood disorders
- MeSH terms
- Affect, Anxiety Disorders, Arousal, Bayes Theorem, Decision Making, Depressive Disorder, Emotions, Humans
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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