Predicting the future - big data, machine learning, and clinical medicine
Open accessAbstract
The algorithms of machine learning, which can sift through vast numbers of variables looking for combinations that reliably predict outcomes, will improve prognosis, displace much of the work of radiologists and anatomical pathologists, and improve diagnostic accuracy.
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A structured taxonomy helps organise the expanding field of AI in clinical decision-making and clarifies how different systems support patient care across clinical contexts.
“A structured taxonomy helps organise the expanding field of AI in clinical decision-making and clarifies how different systems support patient care across clinical contexts [30,31].”
From Artificial Intelligence in Clinical Decision-Making: A Comprehensive Review of Diagnostic, Prognostic, and Therapeutic Applications, Validation Gaps, Bias, and Deployment Challenges (2026) · cites this paper as [31]
In “Predicting the Future — Big Data, Machine Learning, and Clinical Medicine” (page unavailable), the paper distinguishes expert systems from machine learning and discusses applications in prognosis, image interpretation, and diagnosis. That supports the claim that different systems can serve different clinical purposes, but the paper does not propose a structured taxonomy or say that one helps organise the field. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredDiagnostic decision support focuses on identifying disease states from imaging, laboratory, pathology, and symptom-based data, often using deep learning to extract patterns from high-dimensional inputs.
“Diagnostic decision support focuses on identifying disease states from imaging, laboratory, pathology, and symptom-based data, often using deep learning to extract patterns from high-dimensional inputs [31,32].”
From Artificial Intelligence in Clinical Decision-Making: A Comprehensive Review of Diagnostic, Prognostic, and Therapeutic Applications, Validation Gaps, Bias, and Deployment Challenges (2026) · cites this paper as [31]
In “Predicting the Future — Big Data, Machine Learning, and Clinical Medicine” (page unavailable), the authors say machine learning can interpret radiology and pathology images, generate differential diagnoses, and find patterns in very large inputs. The paper does not specifically describe deep learning or establish laboratory and symptom-based data as inputs to diagnostic decision support; its mention of symptoms concerns prognosis. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredRisk stratification supports the identification of high-risk patients and enables targeted interventions and resource allocation.
“Risk stratification supports the identification of high-risk patients and enables targeted interventions and resource allocation [31].”
From Artificial Intelligence in Clinical Decision-Making: A Comprehensive Review of Diagnostic, Prognostic, and Therapeutic Applications, Validation Gaps, Bias, and Deployment Challenges (2026) · cites this paper as [31]
The prognosis discussion in “Predicting the Future — Big Data, Machine Learning, and Clinical Medicine” (page unavailable) says machine learning can identify patient subgroups with very different mortality risks and that better estimates could inform advance care planning. It does not say that risk stratification enables targeted interventions or resource allocation, so those parts of the claim are unsupported. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the case study, the model identified elements of the patient's history and radiology findings to render its prediction, which are critical data points that a clinician would also use.
“In our case study, the model identified elements of the patient’s history and radiology findings to render its prediction, which are critical data points that a clinician would also use.73”
From Scalable and accurate deep learning with electronic health records (2018) · cites this paper as [73]
In “Predicting the Future — Big Data, Machine Learning, and Clinical Medicine” (page unavailable), the paper describes radiographic features and patients’ medical histories as potential inputs to prediction, and notes that clinicians interpret radiographs. It does not report a model that identified both kinds of information in a particular patient to make a prediction. The citing authors’ “our case study” is their own framing, not a case study in the cited paper. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSeveral LLMs, including versions of the ChatGPT family, are employed by both EHR systems and insurance companies, creating a conflict of interest when similar datasets are used by entities with opposing objectives.
“Currently, several LLMs, including versions of the ChatGPT family, are employed by both EHR systems and insurance companies38–40, creating a conflict of interest when similar datasets are used by entities with opposing objectives21,41.”
From Preventing unrestricted and unmonitored AI experimentation in healthcare through transparency and accountability (2025) · cites this paper as [41]
The paper’s main text discusses using EHR and insurance-claims data for machine learning, but does not address a conflict of interest between EHR systems and insurers with opposing objectives. Searches for that conflict and for insurer incentives found no supporting passage in our copy. The separate citations attached to the sentence’s LLM-use assertion are not being judged here. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Data from various healthcare settings may cause a model trained in one hospital to fail to generalise to another.
“For example, data from various healthcare settings, which include different forms of bias and noise, may cause a model trained in the data of one hospital to fail to generalise to another [55].”
From Unbox the black-box for the medical explainable AI via multi-modal and multi-centre data fusion: a mini-review, two showcases and beyond (2022) · cites this paper as [55]
Deep learning has the potential to transform medical diagnostics.
“Deep learning (DL) has the potential to transform medical diagnostics.”
From Diagnostic accuracy of deep learning in medical imaging: a systematic review and meta-analysis (2021) · cites this paper as [2]
AI is widely recognized in healthcare as a ground-breaking technological innovation that leads to better treatment outcomes.
“Similar to other fields and industries, AI is widely recognized in healthcare as a ground-breaking technological innovation that leads to better treatment outcomes [2–5].”
From Shaping the future: perspectives on the Integration of Artificial Intelligence in health profession education: a multi-country survey (2024) · cites this paper as [4]
Deep learning can identify spurious correlations but often fails to determine causation, which can be essential in a clinical context.
“Evidence also suggests that while deep learning can identify spurious correlations, it often fails to determine causation, which can be essential in a clinical context [187].”
From Human-centred artificial intelligence for mobile health sensing: challenges and opportunities (2023) · cites this paper as [187]
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- Authors
- Obermeyer, Z., & Emanuel, E. J.
- Affiliations
- Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)
- Venue
- New England Journal of Medicine
- Publisher
- Massachusetts Medical Society
- Published
- 2016-09-29
- Volume
- 375
- Issue
- 13
- Pages
- 1216-1219
- ISSN
- 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4406
- PMC
- PMC5070532
- OpenAlex
- W2525984666
- Semantic Scholar
- 4d1fdd81f033cd58f3723bfc61e7d12079647a7a
- Cited by
- 3,652
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 494 · 2025: 596 · 2024: 492 · 2023: 378 · 2022: 371 · 2021: 389 · 2020: 348 · 2019: 286 · 2018: 195 · 2017: 95 · 2016: 3 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 140.21
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (DP5OD012161)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Health Informatics › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare and Education
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Machine Learning in Healthcare
- Keywords
- machine learning, big data, clinical medicine, outcome prediction, diagnostic accuracy, radiology, pathological anatomy
- MeSH terms
- Machine Learning, Algorithms, Diagnosis, Expert Systems, Prognosis, Clinical Medicine, Computational Biology
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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