Interpreting effect sizes when controlling for stability effects in longitudinal autoregressive models: Implications for psychological science
Abstract
Effect sizes in longitudinal studies often are dramatically smaller than effect sizes in cross-sectional studies. Indeed, autoregressive models (which are often used in longitudinal studies but not in cross-sectional studies) control for past levels on the outcome (i.e., stability effects) in order to predict change in levels of the outcome over time and thus may greatly reduce the magnitude of the effect of a predictor on the outcome. Unfortunately, however, there have been no attempts to differentiate guidelines for interpreting effect sizes for longitudinal studies versus cross-sectional studies. Consequently, longitudinal effect sizes that fall below the universal guidelines for “small” may be incorrectly dismissed as trivial, when they might be meaningful. In the current paper, we first review the present guidelines for interpreting effect sizes. Next, we discuss several examples of how controlling for stability effects can dramatically attenuate effect sizes of other predictors, in order to support our argument that the current guidelines may be misleading for interpreting longitudinal effects. Finally, we conclude by making recommendations for researchers regarding the interpretation of effect sizes in longitudinal autoregressive models.
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High temporal stabilities make it more difficult to detect an effect that actually exists.
“High temporal stabilities make it more difficult to detect an effect that actually exists [76].”
From Procrastination, depression and anxiety symptoms in university students: a three-wave longitudinal study on the mediating role of perceived stress (2024) · cites this paper as [76]
The cross-lagged model accounted for stability across timepoints and pre-existing relationships between variables, thereby assessing prediction of incremental changes in variables over time.
“It accounted for the stability across timepoints and pre‐existing relationships between variables, thereby assessing the prediction of incremental changes in variables over time (Adachi & Willoughby, 2015).”
From A cross‐lagged twin study of emotional symptoms, social isolation and peer victimisation from early adolescence to emerging adulthood (2023) · cites this paper as Adachi & Willoughby, 2015
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Li, X., Huebner, E. S., & Tian, L. (2021) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114483 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Humphrey, T., & Vaillancourt, T. (2020) · Journal of Youth and Adolescence · doi:10.1007/s10964-020-01307-w · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Modeling developmental processes
Asendorpf, J. B. (2021) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-813995-0.00031-5 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Pouwels, J. L., Valkenburg, P. M., Beyens, I., van Driel, I. I., & Keijsers, L. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-99034-0 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Adachi, P. J. C., & Willoughby, T. (2015) · Journal of Youth and Adolescence · doi:10.1007/s10964-015-0312-2 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Self-citationCrocetti, E., der Graaff, J. V., Moscatelli, S., Keijsers, L., Koot, H. M., Rubini, M., Meeus, W., & Branje, S. (2016) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2016.01726 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Wong, Y. K. (2017) · Language Awareness · doi:10.1080/09658416.2017.1400039 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Adachi, P., & Willoughby, T.
- Affiliations
- Brock University (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Adachi, Paul
- ORCID
- Willoughby, Teena
- Venue
- European Journal of Developmental Psychology
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2014-09-26
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 116-128
- ISSN
- 1740-5610 (ISSN-L)
- 1740-5629
- OpenAlex
- W2041605892
- Cited by
- 448
- References
- 28
- Citations by year
- 2026: 41 · 2025: 41 · 2024: 42 · 2023: 47 · 2022: 63 · 2021: 65 · 2020: 36 · 2019: 36 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 25 · 2016: 12 · 2015: 14 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 18.32
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- European Journal of Developmental Psychology (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Psychometric Methodologies and Testing
- Keywords
- effect size interpretation, measurement stability
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