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Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios
Open accessAbstract
Climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species’ distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a newly developed dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Our projections show that climate change may lead to numerous local extinction in the sub‐polar regions, the tropics and semi‐enclosed seas. Simultaneously, species invasion is projected to be most intense in the Arctic and the Southern Ocean. Together, they result in dramatic species turnovers of over 60% of the present biodiversity, implying ecological disturbances that potentially disrupt ecosystem services. Our projections can be viewed as a set of hypothesis for future analytical and empirical studies.
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“Such a Scenario could expand available habitat for warm water pelagic to higher latitudes (Cheung et al. 2009).”
From El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact on tuna fisheries in Indian Ocean (2014) · cites this paper as Cheung et al. 2009
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BackgroundMethodHow Do They Do It? – Understanding the Success of Marine Invasive Species
Geburzi, J. C., & McCarthy, M. (2018) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-93284-2_8 · Cited by 76
Relano, V., & Pauly, D. F. (2023) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105571 · Cited by 100
Self-citationGoudemand, N., Romano, C., Leu, M., Bucher, H., Trotter, J., & Williams, I. S. (2019) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.01.013 · Cited by 88
Marzloff, M. P., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Hamon, K. G., Hoshino, E., Jennings, S., van Putten, I. E., & Pecl, G. T. (2016) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13285 · Cited by 94
“…(Beaugrand et al., 2015; Garc ıa Molinos et al., 2015) from modelling the co-occurring redistributions of individual species or groups using macro-ecological theories that cannot accommodate (Cheung et al., 2009), or can only coarsely capture (Fernandes et al., 2013) interactions between species.”
BackgroundPerry, R. I., Ommer, R. E., Barangé, M., & Werner, F. E. (2010) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2010.10.004 · Cited by 84
Marine Biodiversity and Climate Change
Wernberg, T., Russell, B. D., Thomsen, M. S., & Connell, S. D. (2014) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-007-5784-4_80 · Cited by 20
Climate Change and Vulnerability: The Case of MENA Countries
Namdar, R., Karami, E., & Keshavarz, M. (2021) · ISPRS Int. J. Geo Inf. · doi:10.3390/ijgi10110794 · Cited by 74
Opportunities for climate‐risk reduction through effective fisheries management
Cheung, W., Jones, M. C., Reygondeau, G., & Frölicher, T. (2018) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14390 · Cited by 74
Self-citationGoldsmit, J., Archambault, P., Chust, G., Villarino, E., Liu, G., Lukovich, J. V., Barber, D. G., & Howland, K. E. (2017) · Biological Invasions · doi:10.1007/s10530-017-1553-7 · Cited by 92
“Seven of the eight modelled species were forecasted to have positive increases in the total areal extent of the studied region of future suitable habitat, consistent with estimated shifts for other marine organisms under climate change scenarios (Cheung et al. 2009; Valle et al. 2014).”
BackgroundResultInfluentialPelagic Sargassum community change over a 40-year period: temporal and spatial variability
Huffard, C. L., Thun, S. V., Sherman, A. D., Sealey, K. S., & Smith, K. L. (2014) · Marine Biology · doi:10.1007/s00227-014-2539-y · Cited by 91
Green, K. M., Selgrath, J. C., Frawley, T. H., Oestreich, W. K., Mansfield, E. J., Urteaga, J., Swanson, S. S., Santana, F. N., Green, S. J., Naggea, J., et al. (2021) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-021-02965-w · Cited by 99
“SSF communities are particularly sensitive to global environmental change due to their high dependence on natural resources, direct environmental exposure, and limited capacity for geographic redistribution (Allison et al. 2009; Cheung et al. 2009; Miller et al. 2018).”
BackgroundRelative risk assessment for ballast-mediated invasions at Canadian Arctic ports
Chan, F. T., Bailey, S., Wiley, C., & MacIsaac, H. (2013) · Biological Invasions · doi:10.1007/s10530-012-0284-z · Cited by 73
“Once released in Arctic waters, NIS may benefit from enhanced survival associated with warmer climate and increased food supply (Vermeij and Roopnarine 2008; Cheung et al. 2009; Rooney and Paterson 2009).”
BackgroundMarine Ecosystem Science on an Intertwined Planet
Österblom, H., Crona, B., Folke, C., Nyström, M., & Troell, M. F. (2016) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-016-9998-6 · Cited by 77
“…by unprecedented connectivity between ecological and social domains, from local to global scales (Adger and others 2009; Walker and others 2009) and manifested by increasing speed in terms of extraction and flow of resources, activities, ideas, and information across Received 30 March 2016;…”
BackgroundThe effects of climate change on the ecology of fishes
Nagelkerken, I., Allan, B. J. M., Booth, D. J., Donelson, J. M., Edgar, G. J., Ravasi, T., Rummer, J. L., Vergés, A., & Mellin, C. (2023) · PLOS Climate · doi:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000258 · Cited by 100
Dundas, S. J., & von Haefen, R. H. (2019) · Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists · doi:10.1086/706343 · Cited by 62
“This sampling design is choice-based (Ben-Akiva and Lerman 1985) and therefore raises challenges for consistent estimation of model parameters. Hindsley et al. (2011) develop innovative methods to address this issue, but more recently in 2012, the NMFS published designbased weights dating back to 2004 that correct for…”
MethodLimuwa, M., Sitaula, B., Njaya, F. J., & Storebakken, T. (2018) · Climate · doi:10.3390/cli6020034 · Cited by 72
Sea‐ice loss boosts visual search: fish foraging and changing pelagic interactions in polar oceans
Langbehn, T. J., & Varpe, Ø. (2017) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13797 · Cited by 78
“…shifts driven by thermal limits dictates that under continuous warming the tropics face a net loss of species (as local extinction > local invasion) while the polar regions will experience high invasion rates paralleled by local extinction of the endemic cold stenotherm fauna (Cheung et al., 2009).”
BackgroundThorson, J. T., Ianelli, J. N., & Kotwicki, S. (2017) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/faf.12225 · Cited by 83
Langlois, T. J., Radford, B., Niel, K. P. V., Meeuwig, J. J., Pearce, A., Rousseaux, C. S., Kendrick, G. A., & Harvey, E. S. (2011) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00734.x · Cited by 68
D’Amen, M., & Azzurro, E. (2019) · ICES Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsz207 · Cited by 72
Climate change vulnerability and perceived impacts on small-scale fisheries in eastern Mindanao
Macusi, E. D., Macusi, E. S., Jimenez, L. A., & Catam-isan, J. P. (2020) · Ocean & Coastal Management · doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2020.105143 · Cited by 85
Refugia under threat: Mass bleaching of coral assemblages in high‐latitude eastern Australia
Kim, S. W., Sampayo, E. M., Sommer, B., Sims, C. A., Cabrera, M. D. C. G., Dalton, S. J., Beger, M., Malcolm, H. A., Ferrari, R., Fraser, N. J., et al. (2019) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14772 · Cited by 78
Villarino, E., Chust, G., Licandro, P., Butenschön, M., Ibaibarriaga, L., Larrañaga, A., & Irigoien, X. (2015) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps11299 · Cited by 74
Saraswat, R., Kouthanker, M., Kurtarkar, S. R., Nigam, R., Naqvi, S. W. A., & Linshy, V. N. (2014) · Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science · doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2014.12.005 · Cited by 76
“…coastal erosion, fertilizer input have also lead to the development of shallow water regions of increased ocean acidification (Doney et al., 2007; Naqvi et al., 2009; Cheung et al., 2009; Cooley and Doney, 2009; Doney et al., 2009; Zhang et al., 2010; Elliott and Kennish, 2011; Kelly et al., 2011).”
BackgroundBiodiversity data requirements for systematic conservation planning in the Mediterranean Sea
Noam Levin, A., Marta Coll, M., Fraschetti, S., Gal, G., Giakoumi, S., Göke, C., Heymans, J., Katsanevakis, S., Mazor, T. K., Öztürk, B., et al. (2014) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps10857 · Cited by 76
“…monthly probability or density maps for each species, using bioclimatic envelope models and remotely sensed data of sea surface temperature, chlorophyll concentrations, salinity, wave energy, etc. (Cheung et al. 2009) or food web models including prey−predator dynamics (Christensen & Walters 2011).”
BackgroundMonk, J. (2014) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/faf.12039 · Cited by 71
“2011) to modelling the impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity (Cheung et al. 2009) to delineating areas for the protection of ‘listed’ deep-sea habitats (Ross and Howell 2013).”
BackgroundDong, Y., Huang, X., Wei, W., Li, Y., & Wang, J. (2016) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/ddi.12443 · Cited by 79
“Global warming is an important factor that promotes the northward shift of southern species (populations) (Barry et al., 1995; Southward et al., 2005; Cheung et al., 2009; Hawkins et al., 2009).”
BackgroundPajuelo, J. G., González, J. A., Triay‐Portella, R., García, J. A. M., Ruiz‐Díaz, R., Lorenzo, J. M., & Luque, Á. A. (2016) · Journal of Marine Systems · doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2016.06.008 · Cited by 71
Metcalfe, J. D., Quesne, W. J. F. L., Cheung, W. W. L., & Righton, D. A. (2012) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0017 · Cited by 66
Self-citationA lost world? Archaic crinoid-dominated assemblages on an Antarctic seamount
Bowden, D., Schiaparelli, S., Clark, M., & Rickard, G. (2011) · doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2010.09.006 · Cited by 69
Holt, J., Allen, J. I., Anderson, T. R., Brewin, R. J. W., Butenschön, M., Harle, J. D., Huse, G., Lehodey, P., Lindemann, C., Mémery, L., et al. (2014) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2014.04.024 · Cited by 73
“…to the biophysical interaction that are not so important for biogeochemical/ LTL considerations, namely: the ‘bioclimate envelope’ of the habitat (Cheung et al., 2009) and the connectivity and transport between regions of different habitats. i.e. what is the acceptable physical environment for…”
BackgroundChristiansen, J., Hop, H., Nilssen, E. M., & Joensen, J. (2012) · Polar Biology · doi:10.1007/s00300-012-1170-y · Cited by 68
“In the light of ocean warming, invasions of fish species are projected to be most intensive for the Arctic Ocean (Cheung et al. 2009).”
Forney, K., Kobayashi, D., Johnston, D., Marchetti, J. A., & Marsik, M. G. (2011) · doi:10.1111/j.1439-0485.2011.00454.x · Cited by 68
“Anthropogenic activities in the world’s oceans are increasingly recognized as a threat to marine biodiversity and the health of marine ecosystems (Norse 1995; Gray 1997; Agardy 2000; Derraik 2002; Cheung et al. 2009).”
BackgroundClimate change: Unpacking the burden on food safety
(2020) · doi:10.4060/ca8185en · Cited by 68
“Changes in diet are also caused by rising seawater temperatures, which alter the distribution of prey fish (Cheung et al., 2009).”
BackgroundUncertainty in predictions of range dynamics: black grouse climbing the Swiss Alps
Zurell, D., Grimm, V., Rossmanith, E., Zbinden, N., Zimmermann, N., & Schröder, B. (2012) · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.07200.x · Cited by 67
Review of climate change impacts on marine fish and shellfish around the UK and Ireland
Heath, M. R., NEAT, F. C., Pinnegar, J. K., Reid, D. G., SIMS, D. W., & Wright, P. J. (2012) · Aquatic Conservation Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems · doi:10.1002/aqc.2244 · Cited by 120
“distributions of the environmental factors to hindcast or forecast the past or future distributions of the species (Cheung et al., 2009).”
BackgroundMarshall, N., Marshall, P., Abdulla, A., & Rouphael, T. (2010) · Ambio · doi:10.1007/s13280-010-0065-9 · Cited by 67
Pape, O. L., Delavenne, J., & Vaz, S. (2013) · Ocean & Coastal Management · doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2013.10.018 · Cited by 71
“As previous models provide a spatial representation of the average realized habitat, this approach, in the same way as environmental envelopes (Guisan and Zimmermann, 2000; Cheung et al., 2009), allows the potential habitat to be considered (Sillero, 2010).”
BackgroundInfluentialTanaka, K. R., & Chen, Y. (2016) · doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2016.01.010 · Cited by 66
“Integrating biotic interactions, multispecies population dynamics and species dispersal in predicting impact of climate variables would be the next modeling step and may address some of these limitations (Cheung et al., 2009, 2008).”
InfluentialYurkowski, D. J., Ferguson, S. H., Choy, E. S., Loseto, L. L., Brown, T. M., Muir, D. C. G., Semeniuk, C. A. D., & Fisk, A. T. (2016) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.1980 · Cited by 69
“…environment has more biodiversity than the high Arctic (Bluhm et al. 2011) with at least double the amount of species richness from 60 ° to 75 ° N (Cheung et al. 2009) and in Hudson Bay relative to the rest of the Canadian Arctic (Archambault et al. 2010), allowing higher trophic-level arctic…”
Krüger, L., Ramos, J. A., Xavier, J. C., Grémillet, D., González‐Solís, J., Petry, M. V., Phillips, R. A., Wanless, R. M., & Paiva, V. H. (2017) · Ecography · doi:10.1111/ecog.02590 · Cited by 86
Gradual changes in range size accompany long‐term trends in species richness
Batt, R. D., Morley, J. W., Selden, R. L., Tingley, M. W., & Pinsky, M. L. (2017) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.12812 · Cited by 65
Musinguzi, L., Efitre, J., Odongkara, K., Ogutu‐Ohwayo, R., Muyodi, F. J., Natugonza, V., Olokotum, M., Namboowa, S., & Naigaga, S. (2015) · Environment Development and Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s10668-015-9690-6 · Cited by 77
“Changes in water temperature influence productivity of aquatic ecosystems and fish yield (Behrenfeld et al. 2006; Cheung et al. 2009), ultimately impacting on livelihoods of fishers.”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., & Pauly, D.
- Affiliations
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- Princeton University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Cheung, William W.L.
- Venue
- Fish and Fisheries
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2009-08-13
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 235-251
- ISSN
- 1467-2960 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-2979
- OpenAlex
- W2170590389
- Cited by
- 1,626
- References
- 93
- Citations by year
- 2026: 48 · 2025: 86 · 2024: 100 · 2023: 124 · 2022: 104 · 2021: 122 · 2020: 160 · 2019: 108 · 2018: 87 · 2017: 96 · 2016: 109 · 2015: 82 · 2014: 90 · 2013: 102 · 2012: 73
- FWCI
- 39.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- figshare.com
- Locations
- Fish and Fisheries (publishedVersion)
- eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Aquatic Science › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Keywords
- climate change impacts, marine biodiversity, species distribution projections, local extinction, biological invasions, species turnover, marine invertebrates, Arctic, Southern Ocean, ecosystem services
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