Cited by 1,626Species Distribution and Climate ChangeMarine and fisheries researchFish Ecology and Management Studies

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Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

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Cheung, William W.L., Lam, Vicky W.Y., Sarmiento, Jorge L., Kearney, Kelly, Watson, Reg, Pauly, Daniel·2009·Fish and Fisheries

DOI 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x

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Abstract

Climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species’ distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a newly developed dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Our projections show that climate change may lead to numerous local extinction in the sub‐polar regions, the tropics and semi‐enclosed seas. Simultaneously, species invasion is projected to be most intense in the Arctic and the Southern Ocean. Together, they result in dramatic species turnovers of over 60% of the present biodiversity, implying ecological disturbances that potentially disrupt ecosystem services. Our projections can be viewed as a set of hypothesis for future analytical and empirical studies.

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Hope and doubt for the world's marine ecosystems
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“The ontogenetic changes in environmental growth performance of fish may be especially relevant in the Arctic, where the timing and magnitude of productivity is expected to change as the result of warmer and more extensive ice-free summer periods (Cheung et al. 2009).”
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“Cheung et al. (2009) constructed patterns of marine biodiversity impacts under scenarios of climate change and introduced metrics for invasion and extinction and found by far the greatest impacts occurred in the high latitudes.”
Background
Climate change, shifting threat points, and the management of transboundary fish stocks
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“Climate-related changes in water temperature have an impact on the productivity of aquatic ecosystems and ﬁ sh production, eventually affecting ﬁ shers ’ livelihoods (Cheung et al., 2009).”
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Impact of deoxygenation and warming on global marine species in the 21st century
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“These distributions have been used to project climate-impacts on fishery resources in a great number of studies (Cheung et al., 2009; Cheung et al., 2010; Fernandes et al., 2013), and are assumed to represent species distributions over the period 1995-2014 (Tai et al., 2021).”
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Manta and devil ray aggregations: conservation challenges and developments in the field
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“Climate change is one of the most important anthropogenic threats to vulnerable marine megafauna such as mobulid rays and is predicted to increase the intensity and frequency of changes in environmental conditions (Cheung et al., 2009; Stewart et al., 2018a).”
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Shifting seas, shifting boundaries: Dynamic marine protected area designs for a changing climate
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“species as water temperature is commonly considered as the main driver of fish geographic ranges (Ben Rais Lasram et al., 2010; Ben Rais Lasram and Mouillot, 2009; Cheung et al., 2009; Sabatés et al., 2006).”
Background
Life-history trade-offs and limitations associated with phenotypic adaptation under future ocean warming and elevated salinity
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Forecasting fine‐scale changes in the food‐web structure of coastal marine communities under climate change
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Species redistribution creates unequal outcomes for multispecies fisheries under projected climate change
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Authors: Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., & Pauly, D.
Affiliations: University of British Columbia (CA)
Princeton University (US)
Corresponding author: Cheung, William W.L.
ORCID: Cheung, William W.L.
Lam, Vicky W.Y.
Sarmiento, Jorge L.
Kearney, Kelly
Watson, Reg
Pauly, Daniel
Venue: Fish and Fisheries
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2009-08-13
Volume: 10
Issue: 3
Pages: 235-251
ISSN: 1467-2960 (ISSN-L)
1467-2979
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x
OpenAlex: W2170590389
Cited by: 1,626
References: 93
Citations by year: 2026: 48 · 2025: 86 · 2024: 100 · 2023: 124 · 2022: 104 · 2021: 122 · 2020: 160 · 2019: 108 · 2018: 87 · 2017: 96 · 2016: 109 · 2015: 82 · 2014: 90 · 2013: 102 · 2012: 73
FWCI: 39.59
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
figshare.com
Licence: cc-by
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Fish and Fisheries (publishedVersion)
eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion)
Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
Funders: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Aquatic Science › Marine and fisheries research
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
Keywords: climate change impacts, marine biodiversity, species distribution projections, local extinction, biological invasions, species turnover, marine invertebrates, Arctic, Southern Ocean, ecosystem services

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Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

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