Cited by 1,626Species Distribution and Climate ChangeMarine and fisheries researchFish Ecology and Management Studies

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Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

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Cheung, William W.L., Lam, Vicky W.Y., Sarmiento, Jorge L., Kearney, Kelly, Watson, Reg, Pauly, Daniel·2009·Fish and Fisheries

DOI 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x

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Abstract

Climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species’ distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a newly developed dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Our projections show that climate change may lead to numerous local extinction in the sub‐polar regions, the tropics and semi‐enclosed seas. Simultaneously, species invasion is projected to be most intense in the Arctic and the Southern Ocean. Together, they result in dramatic species turnovers of over 60% of the present biodiversity, implying ecological disturbances that potentially disrupt ecosystem services. Our projections can be viewed as a set of hypothesis for future analytical and empirical studies.

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“Yet while evidence for temperature-driven change in marine communities is accumulating across the globe, predictive studies of future changes have tended to be sub-global in scale [30, 34, 35] or predominantly focussed on shifts in species’ ranges [36–38] or commercially exploited species [39, 40].”
Background
Barents Sea megabenthos: Spatial and temporal distribution and production
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A spatiotemporal Evaluation of Atlantic Sea Scallop Placopecten magellanicus Habitat in the Gulf of Maine Using a Bioclimate Envelope Model
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“Marine invasions and climate change are recognized as the two most important threats facing global marine biodiversity (Stachowicz et al. 2002; Molnar et al. 2008; Cheung et al. 2009; Doney et al. 2012).”
Background
Using insights from animal behaviour and behavioural ecology to inform marine conservation initiatives
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BackgroundInfluential
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Current and future biogeography of exploited marine groups under climate change
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Identifying climate refugia and bright spots for highly mobile species
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“…and 2100 showed redistribution to higher latitudes, which is consistent with results described for other marine species, including both pelagic (Cheung et al., 2009; García Molinos et al., 2016; Jones & Cheung, 2015; Poloczanska et al., 2016) and demersal fishes (Fredston- Hermann et al.,…”
BackgroundResult
Impact of climate change on potential habitat distribution of Sciaenidae in the coastal waters of China
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Responses in fisheries catch data to a warming ocean along a latitudinal gradient in the western Pacific Ocean
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ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON 16 MAJOR US FISHERIES
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Fish assemblages cope with ocean acidification in a shallow volcanic CO2 vent benefiting from an adjacent recovery area
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Atlantic corals under climate change: modelling distribution shifts to predict richness, phylogenetic structure and trait-diversity changes
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“Due increasing pressures arising from human activities and natural processes, many of the current species are already under risk of extinction on the Earth (Gitay et al., 2002) and in the sea (Cheung et al., 2009).”
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Assessing bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) habitat suitability using partial dependence function combined with classification approaches
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“This outcome contradicts the current common belief that rare species in semi-enclosed seas are prone to extinction under the impact of climate change and species invasions (Cheung et al. 2009).”
Result
Spatial and temporal patterns in summer ichthyoplankton assemblages on the eastern Bering Sea shelf 1996–2007
Busby, M. S., Duffy-Anderson, J., Mier, K., & Forest, L. D. D. (2014) · Fisheries Oceanography · doi:10.1111/fog.12062 · Cited by 15
“…biodiversity is related to ecosystem health and functioning (Magurran, 2004), and that links between ecosystem variations and shifts in species richness have been shown in marine systems across the globe (Meyers and Worm, 2003; Micheli and Halpern, 2005; Wilson et al., 2006; Cheung et al., 2009).”
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Temperature induced changes in size dependent distributions of two boreal and three Lusitanian flatfish species: A comparative study
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Histopathology and Phylogeny of the Dinoflagellate Hematodinium perezi and the Epibiotic Peritrich Ciliate Epistylis sp. Infecting the Blue Crab Callinectes sapidus in the Eastern Mediterranean
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A critical evaluation of adult blacktip shark, Carcharhinus limbatus, distribution off the United States East Coast
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Poleward spawning of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) is facilitated by ocean warming but triggered by energetic constraints
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Mass Mortality of Shallow-Water Temperate Corals in Marine Protected Areas of the North Aegean Sea (Eastern Mediterranean)
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Authors: Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., & Pauly, D.
Affiliations: University of British Columbia (CA)
Princeton University (US)
Corresponding author: Cheung, William W.L.
ORCID: Cheung, William W.L.
Lam, Vicky W.Y.
Sarmiento, Jorge L.
Kearney, Kelly
Watson, Reg
Pauly, Daniel
Venue: Fish and Fisheries
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2009-08-13
Volume: 10
Issue: 3
Pages: 235-251
ISSN: 1467-2960 (ISSN-L)
1467-2979
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x
OpenAlex: W2170590389
Cited by: 1,626
References: 93
Citations by year: 2026: 48 · 2025: 86 · 2024: 100 · 2023: 124 · 2022: 104 · 2021: 122 · 2020: 160 · 2019: 108 · 2018: 87 · 2017: 96 · 2016: 109 · 2015: 82 · 2014: 90 · 2013: 102 · 2012: 73
FWCI: 39.59
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
figshare.com
Licence: cc-by
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Fish and Fisheries (publishedVersion)
eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion)
Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
Funders: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Aquatic Science › Marine and fisheries research
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
Keywords: climate change impacts, marine biodiversity, species distribution projections, local extinction, biological invasions, species turnover, marine invertebrates, Arctic, Southern Ocean, ecosystem services

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Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

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