Cited by 1,626Species Distribution and Climate ChangeMarine and fisheries researchFish Ecology and Management Studies

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Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

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Cheung, William W.L., Lam, Vicky W.Y., Sarmiento, Jorge L., Kearney, Kelly, Watson, Reg, Pauly, Daniel·2009·Fish and Fisheries

DOI 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x

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Abstract

Climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species’ distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a newly developed dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Our projections show that climate change may lead to numerous local extinction in the sub‐polar regions, the tropics and semi‐enclosed seas. Simultaneously, species invasion is projected to be most intense in the Arctic and the Southern Ocean. Together, they result in dramatic species turnovers of over 60% of the present biodiversity, implying ecological disturbances that potentially disrupt ecosystem services. Our projections can be viewed as a set of hypothesis for future analytical and empirical studies.

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Climate change impacts on marine water quality: The case study of the Northern Adriatic sea.
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Are the last remaining Nassau grouper Epinephelus striatus fisheries sustainable? Status quo in the Bahamas.
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Global assessments of the status of marine exploited ecosystems and their management: what more is needed?
Bundy, A., Coll, M., Shannon, L., & Shin, Y. (2012) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2012.05.003 · Cited by 30
“Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2012, 4:292–299 increasing alarm around the world about their status [1–3,4 ,5] culminating most recently in the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Aichi Targets for Biodiversity, which include marine ecosystems and Target 6 for effective ecosystem-based fi…”
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Marine biodiversity, climate change, and governance of the oceans
Craig, R. (2012) · Diversity · doi:10.3390/d4020224 · Cited by 30
A global synthesis of predation on bivalves
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Improving predictions of invasive fish ranges combining functional and ecological traits with environmental suitability under climate change scenarios
Schickele, A., Guidetti, P., Giakoumi, S., Zenetos, A., Francour, P., & Raybaud, V. (2021) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15896 · Cited by 29
“…to increase under the influence of anthropogenic climate change (i.e. increasing with warming intensity; Bellard et al., 2013; Bennett et al., 2021; Cheung et al., 2009; Lenoir et al., 2020) and global trade (Seebens et al., 2015, 2021), challenging conservation policies in all continents…”
BackgroundInfluential
Modeling the Pacific chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) ecological niche and future scenarios in the northern Peruvian Current System
Torrejón-Magallanes, J., Ángeles–González, L. E., Csirke, J., Bouchón, M., Morales‐Bojórquez, E., & Arreguín-Sánchez, F. (2021) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102672 · Cited by 31
Clouds damp the radiative impacts of polar sea ice loss
Alkama, R., Taylor, P., Martin, L. G.-S., Douville, H., Duveiller, G., Forzieri, G., Swingedouw, D., & Cescatti, A. (2020) · doi:10.5194/tc-14-2673-2020 · Cited by 29
“…surface albedo is rapidly declining and surface temperatures are rising at a rate double that of the global average (Cohen et al., 2014; Graversen et al., 2008), impacting sub-polar ecosystems (Cheung et al., 2009; Post et al., 2013) and possibly mid-latitude climate (Cohen et al., 2014, 2019).”
Background
Temperature-driven asexual reproduction and strobilation in three scyphozoan jellyfish polyps
Treible, L. M., & Condon, R. (2019) · Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology · doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2019.151204 · Cited by 29
Pleistocene marine fish invasions and paleoenvironmental reconstructions in the eastern Mediterranean
Agiadi, K., Girone, A., Koskeridou, E., Moissette, P., Cornée, J., & Quillévéré, F. (2018) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.07.037 · Cited by 31
Estimating absence locations of marine species from data of scientific surveys in OBIS
Coro, G., Magliozzi, C., Berghe, E. V., Bailly, N., Ellenbroek, A., & Pagano, P. (2016) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.008 · Cited by 29
Effect of salinity induced pH changes on benthic foraminifera: a laboratory culture experimentPreprint
Saraswat, R., Kouthanker, M., Kurtarkar, S. R., Nigam, R., & Linshy, V. N. (2011) · doi:10.5194/bgd-8-8423-2011 · Cited by 27
Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea
Gordó−Vilaseca, C., Costello, M. J., Marta Coll, M., Jüterbock, A. O., Reiss, H., & Stephenson, F. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-49911-9 · Cited by 42
“Although these changes are expected to continue in the future 6,7 , their extent, and their implications for the biomass of future communities remain little investigated.”
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean
Reisinger, R. R., Corney, S. P., Raymond, B., Lombard, A. T., Bester, M. N., Crawford, R. J. M., Davies, D., de Bruyn, P. J. N., Dilley, B. J., Kirkman, S. P., et al. (2021) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/ddi.13447 · Cited by 34
Predicted Shifts in the Distributions of Atlantic Reef-Building Corals in the Face of Climate Change
Principe, S. C., Acosta, A. L., Andrade, J. E., & Lotufo, T. M. D. C. (2021) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.673086 · Cited by 30
Different drivers, common mechanism; the distribution of a reef fish is restricted by local-scale oxygen and temperature constraints on aerobic metabolism
Duncan, M. I., James, N. C., Potts, W. M., & Bates, A. E. (2020) · Conservation Physiology · doi:10.1093/conphys/coaa090 · Cited by 34
Managing native and non-native sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) through anthropogenic change: A prospective assessment of key threats and uncertainties
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Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans
Bryndum‐Buchholz, A., Prentice, F., Tittensor, D. P., Blanchard, J. L., Cheung, W. W. L., Christensen, V., Galbraith, E. D., Olivier, M., & Lotze, H. K. (2020) · FACETS · doi:10.1139/facets-2019-0035 · Cited by 30
“Because many commercial species in DBEM are projected to invade the Arctic over the course of the 21st century, relative changes in biomass are amplified compared with other ecosystem models (Cheung et al. 2009, 2016; Bryndum-Buchholz et al. 2019).”
BackgroundSelf-citation
Maximum Economic Yield Fishery Management in the Face of Global Warming
Diop, B., Sanz, N., Duplan, Y. J. J., Guene, E. H. M., Blanchard, F., Péreau, J.-C., & Doyen, L. (2018) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.07.027 · Cited by 30
“Thus the study developed in this paper also confirms that climate change management is essential to the sustainable development of fisheries and marine ecosystems (Brander, 2007; Cheung et al., 2009).”
Background
Forecast skill for predicting distribution shifts: A retrospective experiment for marine fishes in the Eastern Bering Sea
Thorson, J. T. (2018) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/faf.12330 · Cited by 35
Statistical Projections of Ocean Climate Indices off Newfoundland and Labrador
Han, G., Colbourne, E., Pepin, P., & Xie, Y. (2015) · doi:10.1080/07055900.2015.1047732 · Cited by 28
“Furthermore, changes in ocean climate will likely result in changes in the distribution and species composition of demersal fish (Cheung et al., 2009), the extent of which is unclear on the Newfoundland Shelf.”
Background
Adaptive behaviour of fishers to external perturbations: simulation of the Tasmanian rock lobster fishery
Hamon, K., Frusher, S., Little, L., Thébaud, O., & Punt, A. (2014) · Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries · doi:10.1007/s11160-013-9302-1 · Cited by 28
“Although uncertainty around the response of marine ecosystems to climate change is still high, expected impacts on marine communities and fisheries are increasingly studied and modeled (Perry et al. 2005; Cheung et al. 2009, 2012; Brown et al. 2010; Heath et al. 2012).”
Background
Spatiotemporal variations in suitable areas for Japanese scallop aquaculture in the Dalian coastal area from 2003 to 2012
Liu, Y., Saitoh, S., Radiarta, I. N., Igarashi, H., & Hirawake, T. (2014) · doi:10.1016/j.aquaculture.2013.11.033 · Cited by 28
“Fisheries everywhere are vulnerable to temperature change (Cheung et al., 2009, 2010), and Japanese scallops often experience temperatures ranging from 5°C to 20°C. Scallops are stressed at temperatures between 20°C and 23°C, although they do survive.”
Simulating the effects of global climate change on Atlantic croaker population dynamics in the mid-Atlantic Region
Diamond, S., Murphy, C., & Rose, K. (2013) · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.05.001 · Cited by 28
Occupancy estimation of marine species: dealing with imperfect detectability
Issaris, Y., Katsanevakis, S., Salomidi, M., Tsiamis, K. B., Katsiaras, N., & Verriopoulos, G. (2012) · doi:10.3354/meps09668 · Cited by 28
Mapping the habitat refugia of Isidella elongata under climate change and trawling impacts to preserve Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems in the Mediterranean
Georges, V., Vaz, S., Carbonara, P., Fabri, M.-C., Fanelli, E., Follesa, M., Garofalo, G., Gerovasileiou, V., Jadaud, A., Maiorano, P., et al. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-56338-1 · Cited by 27
Vulnerability to climate change of managed stocks in the California Current large marine ecosystem
McClure, M. M., Haltuch, M. A., Willis‐Norton, E., Huff, D. D., Hazen, E. L., Crozier, L. G., Jacox, M. G., Nelson, M., Andrews, K. S., Barnett, L. A. K., et al. (2023) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2023.1103767 · Cited by 35
“Globally, centers of distribution for fish species are expected to shift on average approximately 30 to 59 km per decade (Cheung et al., 2009; Poloczanska et al., 2013), assuming fish are able to track changing conditions.”
Background
Global Future Distributions of Mangrove Crabs in Response to Climate Change
Sharifian, S., Kamrani, E., & Saeedi, H. (2021) · Wetlands · doi:10.1007/s13157-021-01503-9 · Cited by 35
Genome-wide population structure and genetic diversity of Japanese whiting (Sillago japonica) inferred from genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS): Implications for fisheries management
Yang, T., Gao, T., Meng, W., & Jiang, Y. (2020) · doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105501 · Cited by 27
Cronius ruber (Lamarck, 1818) arrives to Madeira Island: a new indication of the ongoing tropicalization of the northeastern Atlantic
Schäfer, S., Monteiro, J. G., Castro, N., Rilov, G., & Canning‐Clode, J. (2019) · Marine Biodiversity · doi:10.1007/s12526-019-00999-z · Cited by 37
Insights from the study of complex systems for the ecology and evolution of animal populations
Fisher, D. N., & Pruitt, J. N. (2019) · Current Zoology · doi:10.1093/cz/zoz016 · Cited by 45
“…the case of environmental conditions, human-induced climate change is projected to lead to widespread extinctions in marine fish and invertebrates (Cheung et al. 2009), mammals (McDonald and Brown 1992; Cardillo et al. 2005), and birds (Jetz et al. 2007) and is already linked to dramatic…”
Background
The environmental tolerances and metabolic physiology of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria).
Leeuwis, R. H. J., Nash, G. W., Sandrelli, R. M., Zanuzzo, F., & Gamperl, A. K. (2019) · Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular & integrative physiology · doi:10.1016/j.cbpa.2019.02.004 · Cited by 27
Geographically distant social networks elevate perceived preparedness for coastal environmental threats
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Integrating multiple datasets with species distribution models to inform conservation of the poorly-recorded Chinese seahorses
Zhang, X., & Vincent, A. C. J. (2017) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2017.05.020 · Cited by 27
“All species maps from the validated records in literature were digitalized in an ArcMap.”
MethodInfluential
Empiricism and Modeling for Marine Fisheries: Advancing an Interdisciplinary Science
Essington, T., Ciannelli, L., Heppell, S., Levin, P., McClanahan, T., Micheli, F., Plagányi, É., & van Putten, I. V. (2017) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-016-0073-0 · Cited by 27
Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts
Wing, I. S., & Lanzi, E. (2014) · OECD environment working papers · doi:10.1787/5jz2qcjsrvzx-en · Cited by 23
“In this regard, a useful place to start might be studies of regional changes in species distribution and abundance due to climate forcing over broad geographic scales (e.g., Cheung et al., 2009, 2012).”
Background
Effects of Late-Cenozoic Glaciation on Habitat Availability in Antarctic Benthic Shrimps (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea)
Dambach, J., Thatje, S., Rödder, D., Basher, Z., & Raupach, M. J. (2012) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0046283 · Cited by 29
“Few studies showed attempts to calculate larval dispersal of pelagic fish and invertebrate species [53,95,96].”
Background
Potential distribution of two economic laver species-Neoporphyra haitanensis and Neopyropia yezoensis under climate change based on MaxEnt prediction and phylogeographic profiling
Zhou, W., Li, B., Xu, H., Liang, Z., Lu, X., Yang, L., & Wang, W. (2023) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110219 · Cited by 31
Groundfish biodiversity change in northeastern Pacific waters under projected warming and deoxygenation
Thompson, P. L., Nephin, J., Davies, S. C., Park, A. E., Lyons, D. A., Rooper, C. N., Peña, M. A., Christian, J. R., Hunter, K. L., Rubidge, E. M., et al. (2023) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2022.0191 · Cited by 37
“[17,20,23,24]), and in some cases rely on sea surface temperature when modelling species that live on the seafloor (e.”
Background
The contribution of macroalgae‐associated fishes to small‐scale tropical reef fisheries
Wilson, S., Fulton, C., Graham, N. A., Abesamis, R., Berkström, C., Coker, D., Depczynski, M., Evans, R., Fisher, R., Goetze, J. S., et al. (2022) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/faf.12653 · Cited by 26
The shadow model: how and why small choices in spatially explicit species distribution models affect predictions
Commander, C. C., Barnett, L., Ward, E. J., Anderson, S., & Essington, T. (2022) · PeerJ · doi:10.7717/peerj.12783 · Cited by 26
“Species distribution models have been used to examine shifts in distribution under climate change scenarios for hundreds of commercially important fish and invertebrates (Cheung et al., 2009), terrestrial mammals (Levinsky et al.”
Method
Evaluation of Shifts in the Potential Future Distributions of Carcharhinid Sharks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios
Díaz‐Carballido, P. L., Mendoza‐González, G., Yáñez‐Arenas, C., & Chiappa‐Carrara, X. (2022) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.745501 · Cited by 33
Climate Change-Induced Emergence of Novel Biogeochemical Provinces
Reygondeau, G., Cheung, W. W. L., Wabnitz, C. C. C., Lam, V. W. Y., Frölicher, T. L., & Olivier, M. (2020) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00657 · Cited by 43
“Thick line represents the median across ESMs. marine species (Cheung et al., 2009; Lenoir et al., 2011), biomes (Sarmiento et al., 2004) and climate velocity computed using only SST(Burrows et al., 2011).”
MethodSelf-citation
Climate-change impacts and fisheries management challenges in the North Atlantic Ocean
Bryndum‐Buchholz, A., Boyce, D., Tittensor, D. P., Christensen, V., Bianchi, D., & Lotze, H. K. (2020) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps13438 · Cited by 37
“…rates on the globe (Hoegh-Guldberg & Bruno 2010), resulting in longer growing seasons for phytoplankton, in creased primary production, and loss of sea ice, opening new habitats that sustain growth and survival for shifting species (Cheung et al. 2009, Frainer et al. 2017, Andrews et al. 2019).”
Background
Assessing Knowledge Gaps and Management Needs to Cope With Barriers for Environmental, Economic, and Social Sustainability of Marine Recreational Fisheries: The Case of Spain
Pita, P., Alós, J., Antelo, M., Artetxe, I., Biton-Porsmoguer, S., Carreño, A., Cuadros, A., Font, T., Beiro, J., García-Charton, J., et al. (2020) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00023 · Cited by 26
“Global warming exerts impacts on the individual, population, community, and ecosystem, and it is likely that recreational fishers will perceive some of these effects, including changes in range distribution, with the corresponding appearance of allochthonous species (Cheung et al., 2009; Langangen et al., 2019), chang…”
Background
Seasonal patterns of biodiversity in Mediterranean coastal lagoons
Bellino, A., Mangano, M. C., Baldantoni, D., Russell, B. D., Mannino, A. M., Mazzola, A., Vizzini, S., & Sarà, G. (2019) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/ddi.12942 · Cited by 26
“The niche model, in particular, was employed to predict the dynamics of more than one thousand marine species until the 2050 (Cheung et al., 2009).”
Method
Economic Effects of Climate Change in Alaska
Berman, M., & Schmidt, J. I. (2018) · Weather Climate and Society · doi:10.1175/wcas-d-18-0056.1 · Cited by 36
Crossing lines: a multidisciplinary framework for assessing connectivity of hammerhead sharks across jurisdictional boundaries
Chin, A., Simpfendorfer, C. A., White, W. T., Johnson, G. J., McAuley, R. B., & Heupel, M. R. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep46061 · Cited by 27
Mare Incognitum: A Glimpse into Future Plankton Diversity and Ecology Research
Chust, G., Vogt, M., Benedetti, F., Nakov, T., Villéger, S., Aubert, A., Vallina, S. M., Righetti, D., Not, F., Biard, T., et al. (2017) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2017.00068 · Cited by 30
“ADRIFT IN AN OCEAN OF CHANGE In contrast to works on higher trophic levels (e.g., Cheung et al., 2009), the investigation of the response of plankton to future climate changes has mostly focused more on bulk variables (e.g., biomass, production), with large uncertainties associated with the…”
Result
Ecological traits shape genetic diversity patterns across the Mediterranean Sea: a quantitative review on fishes
Dalongeville, A., Andrello, M., Mouillot, D., Albouy, C. P., & Manel, S. (2015) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/jbi.12669 · Cited by 31
“In parallel, climate change (Cheung et al., 2009) and ª 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/jbi 845 doi:10.1111/jbi.12669 habitat destruction (Sala et al., 2011) are leading to shrinking habitats for marine fishes.”
BackgroundInfluential

Authors: Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., & Pauly, D.
Affiliations: University of British Columbia (CA)
Princeton University (US)
Corresponding author: Cheung, William W.L.
ORCID: Cheung, William W.L.
Lam, Vicky W.Y.
Sarmiento, Jorge L.
Kearney, Kelly
Watson, Reg
Pauly, Daniel
Venue: Fish and Fisheries
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2009-08-13
Volume: 10
Issue: 3
Pages: 235-251
ISSN: 1467-2960 (ISSN-L)
1467-2979
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x
OpenAlex: W2170590389
Cited by: 1,626
References: 93
Citations by year: 2026: 48 · 2025: 86 · 2024: 100 · 2023: 124 · 2022: 104 · 2021: 122 · 2020: 160 · 2019: 108 · 2018: 87 · 2017: 96 · 2016: 109 · 2015: 82 · 2014: 90 · 2013: 102 · 2012: 73
FWCI: 39.59
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
figshare.com
Licence: cc-by
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Fish and Fisheries (publishedVersion)
eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion)
Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
Funders: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Aquatic Science › Marine and fisheries research
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
Keywords: climate change impacts, marine biodiversity, species distribution projections, local extinction, biological invasions, species turnover, marine invertebrates, Arctic, Southern Ocean, ecosystem services

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Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

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