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Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios
Open accessAbstract
Climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species’ distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a newly developed dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Our projections show that climate change may lead to numerous local extinction in the sub‐polar regions, the tropics and semi‐enclosed seas. Simultaneously, species invasion is projected to be most intense in the Arctic and the Southern Ocean. Together, they result in dramatic species turnovers of over 60% of the present biodiversity, implying ecological disturbances that potentially disrupt ecosystem services. Our projections can be viewed as a set of hypothesis for future analytical and empirical studies.
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“Such a Scenario could expand available habitat for warm water pelagic to higher latitudes (Cheung et al. 2009).”
From El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact on tuna fisheries in Indian Ocean (2014) · cites this paper as Cheung et al. 2009
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“However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far.”
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BackgroundOverfishing and the Common Fisheries Policy: (un)successful results from TAC regulation?
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“Environmental factors and climate change (Bakun et al. 1982; Hilborn and Walters 1992), which are increasingly predictable under current bioclimate envelop models, have an important influence on the evolution of a stock (Allison et al. 2009; Cheung et al. 2009).”
BackgroundCapotondi, A. M., Jacox, M. G., Bowler, C., Kavanaugh, M. T., Lehodey, P., Barrie, D., Brodie, S. J., Chaffron, S., Cheng, W., Dias, D. F., et al. (2019) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00623 · Cited by 74
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“Recent studies on the effects of global climate change on biological invasions [4,5] are an important step in the right direction but clearly more attention needs to be paid to other large-scale climatic disturbances (e.”
BackgroundMieszkowska, N., Burrows, M., Pannacciulli, F., & Hawkins, S. (2014) · doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2012.11.008 · Cited by 62
Nicolas, D., Chaalali, A., Drouineau, H., Lobry, J., Uriarte, A., Borja, Á., & Boët, P. (2010) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0196-3 · Cited by 72
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Five critical questions of scale for the coastal zone
Swaney, D., Humborg, C., Emeis, K., Kannen, A., Silvert, W., Tett, P., Pastres, R., Solidoro, C., Yamamuro, M., Hénocque, Y., et al. (2012) · doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2011.04.010 · Cited by 62
“Cheung et al., 2009) Natural cycles which involve drastic changes, such as long-term cycles in fish stocks (Silvert and Smith 1981, Silvert 1983, Silvert and Crawford 1988; Alheit and Hagen, 1997).”
BackgroundChen, Y., Shan, X., Ovando, D., Yang, T., Dai, F., & Jin, X. (2021) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107799 · Cited by 67
“Tropical regions, semi-enclosed seas, and sub-polar areas may experience more loss of local populations, whilst polar areas may have more species invasion issues (Cheung et al., 2009).”
BackgroundOlmos, M., Payne, M., Nevoux, M., Prévost, É., Chaput, G., du Pontavice, H., Guitton, J., Sheehan, T. F., Mills, K. E., & Rivot, É. (2019) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14913 · Cited by 70
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BackgroundGibbin, E., Chakravarti, L., Jarrold, M. D., Christen, F., Turpin, V., N'Siala, G. M., Blier, P., & Calosi, P. (2017) · Journal of Experimental Biology · doi:10.1242/jeb.149989 · Cited by 61
“Such changes are likely to have profound biological implications for species demography and biogeography (Cheung et al., 2009; Chen et al., 2011; Calosi et al., 2013; Queirós et al., 2015), which will in turn have severe consequences for the structure, dynamics and function of marine ecosystems (Solan et al.”
BackgroundInfluentialJung, S., Pang, I.-C., Lee, J., Choi, I., & Hyung Kee, C. H. A. (2013) · Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries · doi:10.1007/s11160-013-9310-1 · Cited by 64
“Most published studies on the effect of ocean warming on the distributional range of marine fish and invertebrates have been confined to the North Atlantic, the northeast Pacific, and the Mediterranean [see Table 1 of Cheung et al. (2009)].”
BackgroundResultInfluentialLampreys: Biology, Conservation and Control
Docker, M. (2015) · Fish & Fisheries Series · doi:10.1007/978-94-017-9306-3 · Cited by 61
Fish and fisheries in hot water: What is happening and how do we adapt?
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“For informing longer-term decisions over decades, climate change projections have been used to project future spatial habitat distributions for many species (Cheung et al., 2009; Molinos et al., 2015; Morley et al., 2018).”
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Crespo, G., Dunn, D., Gianni, M., Gjerde, K., Wright, G., & Halpin, P. (2019) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-019-0981-4 · Cited by 60
Freer, J., Tarling, G., Collins, M., Partridge, J., & Genner, M. (2019) · Diversity and Distributions: A journal of biological invasions and biodiversity · doi:10.1111/ddi.12934 · Cited by 60
Polar Marine Microorganisms and Climate Change
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“Cheung et al. (2009) predict numerous local species”
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“[37][30] developed niche-based models for more than 1700 species of fish and projected changes in distribution.”
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“Collective estimates of marine range shifts observed rates varying between 1.4 and 28 km decade−1 for fish and invertebrates (Cheung et al., 2009) while a meta-analysis of 129 marine species show an average rate of 19 km year−1 (Sorte et al., 2010).”
BackgroundInfluentialHarnessing marine microclimates for climate change adaptation and marine conservation
Woodson, C. B., Micheli, F., Boch, C. A., Alnajjar, M. W., Espinoza-Montes, A., Hernández‐Velasco, A., Vázquez‐Vera, L., Sáenz‐Arroyo, A., Monismith, S. G., & Torre, J. (2018) · Conservation Letters · doi:10.1111/conl.12609 · Cited by 57
“Coastal species often exhibit variation in performance associated with large-scale climate variability (Boyce et al., 2010; Cheung et al., 2009; DeCarlo et al., 2017; Lotze & Worm, 2009; Pauly & Christensen, 1995); however, marine microclimates that allow these species to adapt to future conditions…”
BackgroundSakallı, A., & Başusta, N. (2018) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.5688 · Cited by 61
Spencer, P. D., Hollowed, A. B., Sigler, M. F., Hermann, A. J., & Nelson, M. (2019) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14763 · Cited by 58
“…ocean acidification, Busch, Harvey, & McElhany, 2013; and salinity, Hettler, 1976) relationships to develop species distribution models (SDMs; Rowland, Davison, & Graumlich, 2011), which in some cases have advanced to include dispersion and sim‐ ple population dynamics (Cheung et al., 2009, 2016).”
BackgroundImpact of multiple stressors on sea bed fauna in a warming Arctic
Jørgensen, L., Primicerio, R., Ingvaldsen, R. B., Fossheim, M., Стрелкова, Н. А., Thangstad, T., Евгеньевич, М. И., & Васильевич, З. Д. (2018) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps12803 · Cited by 73
“The effects of climate change are particularly severe in the Arctic, where seawater warming and associated predicted species invasion rates are re - spectively twice (Hoegh-Guldberg & Bruno 2010) and 5 times (Cheung et al. 2009) the global average.”
BackgroundWeatherdon, L. V., Ota, Y., Jones, M. C., Close, D. A., & Cheung, W. W. L. (2016) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0145285 · Cited by 72
“Recent studies argue that climate change and the resulting range of biological responses, such as altered species distributions [2,3,6,7], phenology [4], physiology [8], and marine biodiversity [9,10], are likely to impact fisheries [1,11,12] and the societies that depend upon them [13,14].”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationShackell, N. L., Ricard, D., & Stortini, C. H. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0090662 · Cited by 58
“The biological response to climate variation can be complex but a population’s first acclimative response is typically a shift in spatial distribution in response to temperature change [1,4].”
BackgroundMendenhall, E., Santo, E. D. D., Nyman, E., & Tiller, R. (2019) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2019.103664 · Cited by 50
Gianelli, I., Ortega, L., Marín, Y. H., Piola, A. R., & Defeo, O. (2019) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps13035 · Cited by 55
Pinnegar, J., Engelhard, G., Norris, N. J., Theophille, D., & Sebastien, R. D. (2019) · ICES Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsz052 · Cited by 50
Batista, M. B., Anderson, A. B., Sanches, P. F., Polito, P. S., Silveira, T. C. L., Vélez‐Rubio, G. M., Scarabino, F., Camacho, O., Schmitz, C., Martínez, A. M., et al. (2018) · Diversity · doi:10.3390/d10010011 · Cited by 50
“Considering the remarkable role that these rafts play in facilitating the dispersal and connectivity between coastal faunal and floristic communities, events such as this require greater attention regarding invasive species monitoring programs, niche conservation policies and climatic changes.”
Chakravarti, L., Jarrold, M. D., Gibbin, E., Christen, F., Massamba-N’Siala, G., Blier, P., & Calosi, P. (2016) · Evolutionary Applications · doi:10.1111/eva.12391 · Cited by 50
“…warming (OW) and ocean acidification (OA) will have negative impacts on the majority of marine metazoan species (Kroeker et al. 2013; Wittmann and P€ortner 2013), making them more susceptible to local and global extinction events (Cheung et al. 2009; Pandolfi et al. 2011; Bellard et al. 2012).”
BackgroundClimate change and anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems and countermeasures in China
Jiao, N., Chen, D.-K., Luo, Y.-M., Huang, X.-P., Zhang, R., Zhang, H.-B., Jiang, Z.-J., & Zhang, F. (2015) · Advances in Climate Change Research · doi:10.1016/j.accre.2015.09.010 · Cited by 50
Climate change and the Antarctic marine ecosystem: an essay on management implications
Trathan, P. N., & Agnew, D. (2010) · Antarctic Science · doi:10.1017/s0954102010000222 · Cited by 52
“Indeed, the overall conclusion of Cheung et al. (2009), was that the physiological specialization of high latitude marine organisms will make them particularly vulnerable to extinction, and that the maximum potential for species turnover and invasions will be in the 408–608S region, if oceanography…”
BackgroundClimate change and marine molluscs of the western North Atlantic: future prospects and perils
Saupe, E. E., Hendricks, J. R., Peterson, A. T., & Lieberman, B. S. (2014) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/jbi.12289 · Cited by 47
“Once the maps were reclassified, we calculated the potential cumulative area lost and gained from the present to the three future time slices sensu Cheung et al. (2009) and Thuiller et al. (2005).”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialMatley, J., Fisk, A., & Dick, T. (2013) · doi:10.1007/s00227-013-2289-2 · Cited by 49
Gutt, J., Hosie, G., & Stoddart, M. (2010) · doi:10.1002/9781444325508.ch11 · Cited by 49
Direct effects of climate change on the Antarctic krill fishery
Kawaguchi, S., Nicol, S., & Press, T. (2009) · Fisheries Management and Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2400.2009.00686.x · Cited by 47
Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change
Oyinlola, M. A., Reygondeau, G., Wabnitz, C., & Cheung, W. (2020) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14974 · Cited by 48
“…ocean acidity, storm frequencies and wave action, as well as changes in salinity, among others, are expected to impact the suitability of marine habitats (coastal waters and open ocean) to farm seafood (Barange & Perry, 2009; Cheung et al., 2009; Gattuso et al., 2015; Harley et al., 2006).”
BackgroundSelf-citationAdding the Third Dimension to Marine Conservation
Noam Levin, A., Kark, S., & Danovaro, R. (2017) · Conservation Letters · doi:10.1111/conl.12408 · Cited by 51
“2001, 2004), and marine species are predicted to shift their latitudinal range and depth ranges (Cheung et al. 2009).”
BackgroundLiang, C., Xian, W., & Pauly, D. F. (2018) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2018.00026 · Cited by 58
“…China’s seas, fisheries catches, mean temperature of the catch, tropicalization INTRODUCTION Climate change and ocean warming resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions are directly affecting the ecophysiology of marine fishes and invertebrates (Cheung et al., 2009, 2010, 2013; Genner et al., 2010).”
BackgroundSelf-citationNo barrier to emergence of bathyal king crabs on the Antarctic shelf
Aronson, R., Smith, K. E. L., Vos, S., Mcclintock, J., Amsler, M., Moksnes, P., Ellis, D., Kaeli, J., Singh, H., Bailey, J. W., et al. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · doi:10.1073/pnas.1513962112 · Cited by 48
Assessing marine species vulnerability to projected warming on the Scotian Shelf, Canada
Stortini, C. H., Shackell, N. L., Tyedmers, P. H., & Beazley, K. (2015) · ICES Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsv022 · Cited by 51
“The future weakening of an important base to the Scotian Shelf ecosystem could indicate the beginning of an ecosystem-level transformation as warmer-water systems replace native colder-water systems (Cheung et al., 2009).”
BackgroundClimate change and warm‐water species at the north‐western boundary of the Mediterranean Sea
Parravicini, V., Mangialajo, L., Mousseau, L., Peirano, A., Morri, C., Montefalcone, M., Francour, P., Kulbicki, M., & Bianchi, C. N. (2015) · Marine Ecology · doi:10.1111/maec.12277 · Cited by 57
Baker, M. R. (2021) · Polar Biology · doi:10.1007/s00300-021-02856-x · Cited by 68
Impacts of climate change on geographical distributions of invasive ascidians
Zhang, Z., Capinha, C., Karger, D. N., Turón, X., MacIsaac, H. J., & Zhan, A. (2020) · Marine Environmental Research · doi:10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.104993 · Cited by 58
“Shifts in species ranges related to climate changes have been documented or projected for many marine species (Perry et al., 2005; Vermeijj and Roopnarine, 2008; Cheung et al., 2009; Assis et al., 2018a; Chan et al., 2019).”
BackgroundSingh, G. G., Hilmi, N., Bernhardt, J. R., Cisneros-Montemayor, A. M., Cashion, M. S., Ota, Y., Acar, S., Brown, J. M., Cottrell, R. S., Djoundourian, S. S., et al. (2019) · People and Nature · doi:10.1002/pan3.26 · Cited by 54
“, 2007), phenological shifts (Edwards & Richardson, 2004), range shifts (Cheung et al., 2009), size changes due to metabolic effects and oxygen limitation (Cheung et al.”
BackgroundSelf-citationBen‐Hasan, A., & Christensen, V. (2019) · Global Ecology and Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00556 · Cited by 51
Chea, R., Lek, S., Ngor, P., & Grenouillet, G. (2017) · doi:10.1111/eff.12301 · Cited by 47
“Obviously, the seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation have proved to be important factors affecting the distribution of organisms in ecosystems (Buisson et al., 2008; Cheung et al., 2009).”
BackgroundMellin, C., Lurgi, M., Matthews, S. A., MacNeil, M. A., Caley, M. J., Bax, N. J., Przeslawski, R., & Fordham, D. A. (2016) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2016.11.008 · Cited by 52
PAPER Geographical variation in climatic sensitivity of intertidal mussel zonation
Mislan, K. A. S., Helmuth, B., & Wethey, D. (2014) · doi:10.1111/geb.12160 · Cited by 47
“Thus far, most studies have predicted the effects of climate change on biogeographic ranges using physiological and environmental data in mechanistic and correlative models (e.g. Pearson & Dawson, 2003; Kearney & Porter, 2004; Cheung et al., 2009; Buckley, 2010).”
BackgroundKeeping pace with climate change: what can we learn from the spread of Lessepsian migrants?
Hiddink, J., Lasram, F. B. R., Cantrill, J., & Davies, A. (2012) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02698.x · Cited by 47
“…have shown that the distributional ranges of many species will have to move 100s of kilometres in decades for individuals to stay in suitable environmental conditions, and that current and future ranges do not often overlap (e.g. Cheung et al., 2009; Pereira et al., 2010; Lenoir et al., 2011).”
BackgroundContrasting effects of food quality and quantity on a marine top predator
Kadin, M., Österblom, H., Hentati-Sundberg, J., & Olsson, O. (2012) · doi:10.3354/meps09417 · Cited by 47
Using harmonized historical catch data to infer the expansion of global tuna fisheries
Coulter, A., Cashion, T., Cisneros-Montemayor, A. M., Popov, S., Tsui, G., Manach, F. L., Schiller, L., Palomares, M. L. D., Zeller, D. C., & Pauly, D. F. (2019) · Fisheries Research · doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2019.105379 · Cited by 48
Self-citationThree decades of increasing fish biodiversity across the northeast Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean
Gordó−Vilaseca, C., Stephenson, F., Marta Coll, M., Lavin, C. P., & Costello, M. J. (2023) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2120869120 · Cited by 60
A Regional Review of Marine and Coastal Impacts of Climate Change on the ROPME Sea Area
Lincoln, S., Buckley, P., Howes, E., Maltby, K., Pinnegar, J., Ali, T. S., Alosairi, Y., Al-Ragum, A., Baglee, A., Balmes, C., et al. (2021) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su132413810 · Cited by 46
Building the future of MPAs – lessons from history
Wells, S., Ray, G. C., Gjerde, K. M., White, A. T., Muthiga, N. A., Bezaury-Creel, J. E., Causey, B. D., McCormick‐Ray, J., Salm, R. V., Gubbay, S., et al. (2016) · Aquatic Conservation Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems · doi:10.1002/aqc.2680 · Cited by 58
Fernandes, J. A., Santos, L., Vance, T., Fileman, T., Smith, D., Bishop, J., Viard, F., Queirós, A., Merino, G., Buisman, E., et al. (2016) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2015.11.015 · Cited by 46
“Current projections estimate that climate change alone may increase the rate of NIS introductions into European waters by 15 to 30 % by mid-century (Cheung et al., 2009; Pereira et al., 2010, Fernandes et al. 2013).”
BackgroundErauskin-Extramiana, M., Chust, G., Arrizabalaga, H., Cheung, W. W. L., Santiago, J., Merino, G., & Fernandes-Salvador, J. A. (2023) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104055 · Cited by 45
Self-citationBiology, fishery, conservation and management of Indian Ocean tuna fisheries
Gopalakrishna Pillai, N., & Satheeshkumar, P. (2012) · Ocean Science Journal · doi:10.1007/s12601-012-0038-y · Cited by 45
“Global demand for fish is exerting more pressure on fish stocks, in addition to climate change induced impacts (Cheung et al. 2009).”
BackgroundAre regional fisheries’ catches changing with climate?
Gamito, R., Teixeira, C. M., Costa, M. J., & Cabral, H. N. (2015) · Fisheries Research · doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2014.07.014 · Cited by 45
Rutterford, L. A., Simpson, S. D., Bogstad, B., Devine, J. A., & Genner, M. J. (2023) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16633 · Cited by 51
“…indicates that fish species in the region will undergo poleward movements to track preferred thermal habitats under further warming (Cheung et al., 2010, 2011; Fernandes et al., 2020; Jones et al., 2013), consistent with predictions across the globe (Cheung et al., 2009; Okunishi et al., 2012).”
BackgroundScientists' warning of an imperiled ocean
Georgian, S. E., Hameed, S. O., Morgan, L. E., Amon, D. J., Sumaila, U. R., Johns, D., & Ripple, W. J. (2022) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109595 · Cited by 53
Metadata
- Authors
- Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., & Pauly, D.
- Affiliations
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- Princeton University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Cheung, William W.L.
- Venue
- Fish and Fisheries
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2009-08-13
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 235-251
- ISSN
- 1467-2960 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-2979
- OpenAlex
- W2170590389
- Cited by
- 1,626
- References
- 93
- Citations by year
- 2026: 48 · 2025: 86 · 2024: 100 · 2023: 124 · 2022: 104 · 2021: 122 · 2020: 160 · 2019: 108 · 2018: 87 · 2017: 96 · 2016: 109 · 2015: 82 · 2014: 90 · 2013: 102 · 2012: 73
- FWCI
- 39.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- figshare.com
- Locations
- Fish and Fisheries (publishedVersion)
- eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Aquatic Science › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Keywords
- climate change impacts, marine biodiversity, species distribution projections, local extinction, biological invasions, species turnover, marine invertebrates, Arctic, Southern Ocean, ecosystem services
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