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Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios
Open accessAbstract
Climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species’ distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a newly developed dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Our projections show that climate change may lead to numerous local extinction in the sub‐polar regions, the tropics and semi‐enclosed seas. Simultaneously, species invasion is projected to be most intense in the Arctic and the Southern Ocean. Together, they result in dramatic species turnovers of over 60% of the present biodiversity, implying ecological disturbances that potentially disrupt ecosystem services. Our projections can be viewed as a set of hypothesis for future analytical and empirical studies.
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“Such a Scenario could expand available habitat for warm water pelagic to higher latitudes (Cheung et al. 2009).”
From El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact on tuna fisheries in Indian Ocean (2014) · cites this paper as Cheung et al. 2009
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BackgroundAnomalous winter winds decrease 2014 transition zone productivity in the NE Pacific
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“…that range from global coupled atmosphere-ocean-biogeochemistry earth system models (e.g. Bopp et al., 2013), to species distribution models (e.g. Cheung et al., 2009), single-species population dynamic models (e.g. Lehodey et al., 2010), and whole ecosystem models (e.g. Ainsworth et al., 2011;…”
BackgroundSelf-citationRadical ocean futures-scenario development using science fiction prototyping
Merrie, A., Keys, P. W., Métian, M., & Österblom, H. (2017) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2017.09.005 · Cited by 168
Climate change and ecosystem services
Scholes, R. J. (2016) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.404 · Cited by 148
Pitcher, T. J., & Cheung, W. W. L. (2013) · Marine Pollution Bulletin · doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2013.05.045 · Cited by 128
Self-citationAdaptation strategies to climate change in marine systems
Miller, D. D., Ota, Y., Sumaila, U. R., Cisneros-Montemayor, A. M., & Cheung, W. W. L. (2017) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13829 · Cited by 143
“, 2010), This results in higher projected rate of local extinction (Albouy, Guilhaumon, Ara ujo, Mouillot, & Leprieur, 2012; Cheung et al., 2009) and species’ may only adapt their biogeography by shifting toward deeper water (Dulvy et al.”
BackgroundSelf-citationLaurel, B., Spencer, M., Iseri, P. J., & Copeman, L. (2016) · Polar Biology · doi:10.1007/s00300-015-1761-5 · Cited by 122
“Broadly speaking, these are the mechanisms by which marine fish populations are expected to shift northward (Cheung et al. 2009), resulting in changes in regional species assemblages (Attrill and Power 2002; Albouy et al.”
BackgroundInfluentialKrill, climate, and contrasting future scenarios for Arctic and Antarctic fisheries
McBride, M. M., Dalpadado, P., Drinkwater, K., Godø, O., Hobday, A., Hollowed, A., Kristiansen, T., Murphy, E., Ressler, P., Subbey, S., et al. (2014) · ICES Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsu002 · Cited by 122
“Climate change is expected to affect fish stocks directly by causing major geographic shifts in distribution and abundance over the next 50–100 years (Barker and Knorr, 2007; Brander, 2007; Cheung et al., 2009), and recent evidence shows that changes have already occurred in benthic community composition (Mecklenburg…”
BackgroundVié, J., Hilton‐Taylor, C., & Stuart, S. N. (2009) · IUCN eBooks · doi:10.2305/iucn.ch.2009.17.en · Cited by 977
Climate change increases the risk of fisheries conflict
Mendenhall, E., Hendrix, C. S., Nyman, E., Roberts, P. M., Hoopes, J. R., Watson, J. R., Lam, V. W. Y., & Sumaila, U. R. (2020) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2020.103954 · Cited by 176
“The fish stocks governed by existing fisheries management institutions are changing, as marine species shift their spatial distribution, abundance, physiology and phenology due to the changes in ocean conditions under climate change [80-84].”
BackgroundSelf-citationColombo, S. M., Wacker, A., Parrish, C. C., Kainz, M. J., & Arts, M. T. (2016) · Environmental Reviews · doi:10.1139/er-2016-0062 · Cited by 151
“Tropical species are predicted to expand toward temperate regions, and temperate species in turn will move into polar regions (Cheung et al. 2009; Vinagre et al. 2011).”
BackgroundGeneric harvest control rules for European fisheries
Froese, R., Branch, T. A., Proelß, A., Quaas, M. F., Sainsbury, K. J., & Zimmermann, C. (2010) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2010.00387.x · Cited by 110
“Climate, genes and protected areas Recent publications (Cheung et al. 2009a,b) suggest that climate change will lead to increased stress and potential large scale re-distribution of fish stocks within the next 50 years.”
BackgroundHabitat Specialization in Tropical Continental Shelf Demersal Fish Assemblages
Fitzpatrick, B. M., Harvey, E. S., Heyward, A. J., Twiggs, E. J., & Colquhoun, J. (2012) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0039634 · Cited by 106
“The ability of fishes to respond to these impacts through range shifts with latitude and depth will likely be influenced by the degree of habitat specialization of the fish [7,8].”
BackgroundGervais, C. R., Champion, C., & Pecl, G. T. (2021) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15634 · Cited by 150
Modelled spatial distribution of marine fish and projected modifications in the North Atlantic Ocean
Lenoir, S., Beaugrand, G., & LECUYER, É. (2010) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02229.x · Cited by 114
“The new model also gives alternative views on quantitative spatial distribution recently provided by Cheung et al. (2008a, 2008b, 2009) using a new dynamic bioclimate envelope model or by the method AquaMap (Kaschner et al., 2006) used in FishBase (Froese & Pauly, 2009).”
BackgroundMethodArctic fisheries catches in Russia, USA, and Canada: baselines for neglected ecosystems
Zeller, D., Booth, S., Pakhomov, E., Swartz, W., & Pauly, D. (2011) · Polar Biology · doi:10.1007/s00300-010-0952-3 · Cited by 116
“Estimates of Alaskan subsistence catches were taken from a variety of sources (e.g., Patterson 1974; Burch 1985 ) and were expanded to incorporate communities and years when no data were available (see ‘Small-scale, non-commercial fisheries data’).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationReview of climate change impacts on marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland
Cheung, W. W. L., Pinnegar, J. K., Merino, G., Jones, M. C., & Barangé, M. (2012) · Aquatic Conservation Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems · doi:10.1002/aqc.2248 · Cited by 119
Self-citationCowart, D. A., Murphy, K. R., & Cheng, C. ‐. C. (2017) · Marine Genomics · doi:10.1016/j.margen.2017.11.003 · Cited by 133
“Organisms can respond and adapt to slow increases in environmental temperatures, while rapid changes are likely to cause physiological stress, driving migrations, extinctions and invasions by non-native taxa (Frenot et al., 2005; Cheung et al., 2009; Trivelpiece et al., 2011; Peck et al., 2014).”
BackgroundMore losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming
Griffiths, H. J., Meijers, A., & Bracegirdle, T. J. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3377 · Cited by 140
Warren, R. (2010) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0271 · Cited by 100
Costa, F., Landi, M., Martins, R., Costa, M. H., Costa, M. E., Carneiro, M., Alves, M. J., Steinke, D., & Carvalho, G. (2012) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0035858 · Cited by 113
“Portugal’s geographic location appears particularly well suited to monitor temporal changes in marine fish species ranges of the Northeastern Atlantic [2].”
BackgroundHutchings, J. A., & Rangeley, R. (2011) · Canadian Journal of Zoology · doi:10.1139/z11-022 · Cited by 115
“On a considerably broader scale, climate change impacts on the oceans (e.g., increases in temperature, acidity; IPCC 2007) are expected to have many unpredictable consequences (Brander 2008; Cheung et al. 2009).”
BackgroundTowards a meaningful assessment of marine ecological impacts in life cycle assessment (LCA)
Woods, J. S., Veltman, K., Huijbregts, M. A. J., Verones, F., & Hertwich, E. G. (2016) · Environment International · doi:10.1016/j.envint.2015.12.033 · Cited by 151
“At present, bioclimatic envelope model predictions are considered to be inaccurate for individual species at a regional scale, particularly in coastal regions (Stock et al., 2011; Cheung et al., 2009).”
InfluentialBorgå, K., McKinney, M. A., Routti, H., Fernie, K. J., Giebichenstein, J., Hallanger, I. G., & Muir, D. C. G. (2022) · Environmental Science Processes & Impacts · doi:10.1039/d1em00469g · Cited by 141
“5,87,107 Moreover, given that the greatest rates of species invasions, at least for marine ecosystems, are projected to occur in polar regions, 102 and rapid Arctic borealization has already been documented ( e.g. , in the Barents Sea 11 ), we can speculate that polar marine wildlife may be more at…”
Zhang, Z., Xu, S., Capinha, C., Weterings, R., & Gao, T. (2019) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.05.023 · Cited by 125
“The application of SDMs in the terrestrial realm has been common, and their use for marine organisms has received increasingly more attention in recent years (Cheung et al., 2009; Robinson et al., 2011; Marshall et al., 2014).”
BackgroundMarta Coll, M., Carreras, M., Ciércoles, C., Cornax, M.-J., Gorelli, G., Morote, E., & Sáez, R. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0085670 · Cited by 114
“These impacts have an effect on the biodiversity and abundance of marine resources [7–9], and on marine ecosystem structure and functioning [10,11].”
BackgroundCrucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes
Wilson, S. K., Adjeroud, M., Bellwood, D. R., Berumen, M. L., Booth, D. J., Bozec, Y., Chabanet, P., Cheal, A. J., Cinner, J. E., Depczynski, M., et al. (2010) · Journal of Experimental Biology · doi:10.1242/jeb.037895 · Cited by 103
Early Life History and Fisheries Oceanography: New Questions in a Changing World
Institution, W. H. O., Llopiz, J. K., Cowen, R. K., Hauff, M., Ji, R., Munday, P. L., Muhling, B. A., Peck, M. A., Richardson, D., Sogard, S. M., et al. (2014) · Oceanography · doi:10.5670/oceanog.2014.84 · Cited by 119
Tropicalization of fish assemblages in temperate biogeographic transition zones
Costa, B. H. E., Assis, J. F., Franco, G., Erzini, K., Henriques, M., Gonçalves, E. J., & Caselle, J. (2014) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps10749 · Cited by 115
“Latitudinal range shifts in marine species have already been widely described (Perry et al. 2005, Cheung et al. 2009, 2012, Hawkins et al. 2009, Figueira & Booth 2010, Nicastro et al. 2013, Wernberg et al. 2013) and have been shown to affect ecosystems and fisheries (Sumaila et al. 2011, Cheung et…”
BackgroundInfluentialClimate-change induced tropicalisation of marine communities in Western Australia
Cheung, W. W. L., Meeuwig, J. J., Feng, M., Harvey, E. S., Lam, V. W. Y., Langlois, T. J., Slawinski, D., Sun, C., & Pauly, D. F. (2012) · Marine and Freshwater Research · doi:10.1071/mf11205 · Cited by 127
“Overall, change in distribution area and primary productivity will likely lead to re-distribution of potential catch (Cheung et al. 2008a, 2009, 2011a; Brown et al. 2010) and this redistribution needs to be reflected in spatial management arrangement.”
BackgroundResultInfluentialSelf-citationWęsławski, J., Wiktor, J., & Kotwicki, L. (2010) · Marine Biodiversity · doi:10.1007/s12526-010-0038-z · Cited by 107
Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach
Chust, G., Castellani, C., Licandro, P., Ibaibarriaga, L., Sagarmínaga, Y., & Irigoien, X. (2013) · ICES Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.1093/icesjms/fst147 · Cited by 106
“Research efforts need to focus on integrating the two mechanisms in the modelling approach for zooplankton species, as attempted for fish and invertebrates (Cheung et al., 2009).”
BackgroundProjecting marine species range shifts from only temperature can mask climate vulnerability
McHenry, J., Welch, H., Lester, S. E., & Saba, V. S. (2019) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14828 · Cited by 121
“…shifts with the aim of assessing the vulnerability of marine populations and communi‐ ties (Khan, Levac, Van Guelphen, Pohle, & Chmura, 2018; Marras et al., 2015; Robinson, Hobday, Possingham, & Richardson, 2015) and understanding likely future changes in marine biodiversity (Cheung et al., 2009).”
BackgroundTransitional states in marine fisheries: adapting to predicted global change
MacNeil, M. A., Graham, N. A. J., Cinner, J. E., Dulvy, N. K., Loring, P. A., Jennings, S., Polunin, N. V. C., Fisk, A. T., & McClanahan, T. R. (2010) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2010.0289 · Cited by 101
“Climate-driven fish invasions into the Arctic are expected to exceed any other LME (Cheung et al. 2009).”
BackgroundInfluentialTeal, L. R., van Hal, R., van Kooten, T., Ruardij, P., & Rijnsdorp, A. D. (2012) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02795.x · Cited by 105
“As taxa will differ in their response to climate change, ecological communities can also be affected by changes in local species composition, diversity and phenology (Freitas et al., 2007; Cheung et al., 2009).”
BackgroundCanada in a changing climate: sector perspectives on impacts and adaptation
Warren, F., & Lemmen, D. S. (2014) · doi:10.4095/g156219 · Cited by 105
“Estimates suggest latitudinal ranges may shift northward by 30 to130 km per decade, while depth ranges may shift 3.5 m deeper per decade (Cheung et al., 2009, 2010).”
BackgroundInfluentialBelhabib, D., Lam, V. W. Y., & Cheung, W. W. L. (2016) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2016.05.009 · Cited by 124
Self-citationTowards recognition of physical and geochemical change in Subarctic and Arctic Seas
Carmack, E. C., & McLaughlin, F. A. (2011) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2011.02.007 · Cited by 104
Climate change disrupts core habitats of marine species
Hodapp, D., Roca, I. T., Fiorentino, D., Garilao, C., Kaschner, K., Kesner‐Reyes, K., Schneider, B., Segschneider, J., Kocsis, Á. T., Kiessling, W., et al. (2023) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16612 · Cited by 131
Hollowed, A. B., Barbeaux, S. J., Cokelet, E. D., Farley, E. V., Kotwicki, S., Ressler, P. H., Spital, C., & Wilson, C. D. (2012) · Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2012.02.008 · Cited by 100
Ecosystem‐based fisheries management in the Northwest Atlantic
Link, J. S., Bundy, A., Overholtz, W. J., Shackell, N. L., Manderson, J. P., Duplisea, D. E., Hare, J., Koen‐Alonso, M., & Friedland, K. D. (2011) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2011.00411.x · Cited by 104
“Understanding and linking among MPAs is going to be a critical issue if species’ ranges shift with climate change such that some species may move out of areas established for their protection (Burns et al. 2003; Cheung et al. 2009).”
BackgroundTrait-based approaches in rapidly changing ecosystems: A roadmap to the future polar oceans
Degen, R., Aune, M., Bluhm, B. A., Cassidy, C., Kędra, M., Kraan, C., Vandepitte, L., Włodarska‐Kowalczuk, M., Zhulay, I., Albano, P. G., et al. (2018) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.04.050 · Cited by 126
“…have been directly linked to range shifts in the distribution of some polar species and the poleward expansion of boreal species and communities (Cheung et al., 2009; Frainer et al., 2017; Mueter and Litzow, 2008; Smith et al., 2012), the latter also in fl uenced by the increased human activity…”
Metadata
- Authors
- Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., & Pauly, D.
- Affiliations
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- Princeton University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Cheung, William W.L.
- Venue
- Fish and Fisheries
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2009-08-13
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 235-251
- ISSN
- 1467-2960 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-2979
- OpenAlex
- W2170590389
- Cited by
- 1,626
- References
- 93
- Citations by year
- 2026: 48 · 2025: 86 · 2024: 100 · 2023: 124 · 2022: 104 · 2021: 122 · 2020: 160 · 2019: 108 · 2018: 87 · 2017: 96 · 2016: 109 · 2015: 82 · 2014: 90 · 2013: 102 · 2012: 73
- FWCI
- 39.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- figshare.com
- Locations
- Fish and Fisheries (publishedVersion)
- eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Aquatic Science › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Keywords
- climate change impacts, marine biodiversity, species distribution projections, local extinction, biological invasions, species turnover, marine invertebrates, Arctic, Southern Ocean, ecosystem services
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