Cited by 1,626Species Distribution and Climate ChangeMarine and fisheries researchFish Ecology and Management Studies

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Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

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Cheung, William W.L., Lam, Vicky W.Y., Sarmiento, Jorge L., Kearney, Kelly, Watson, Reg, Pauly, Daniel·2009·Fish and Fisheries

DOI 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x

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Abstract

Climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species’ distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a newly developed dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Our projections show that climate change may lead to numerous local extinction in the sub‐polar regions, the tropics and semi‐enclosed seas. Simultaneously, species invasion is projected to be most intense in the Arctic and the Southern Ocean. Together, they result in dramatic species turnovers of over 60% of the present biodiversity, implying ecological disturbances that potentially disrupt ecosystem services. Our projections can be viewed as a set of hypothesis for future analytical and empirical studies.

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“The association between the global climate change and species invasion pattern suggests that the invasion rate by the alien species will not decrease soon (Cheung et al. 2009).”
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“Environmental and human pressures impact on the distribution and abundance of marine species (Cheung et al. 2009); such impacts have effects on biodiversity, ecosystems’ stability and sustainability of fisheries (Brander 2007; Pereira et al.”
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“In fishes, climate change is expected to cause changes in community composition in over 60% of the world oceans by 2050 due to local extinctions and facilitation of invasions (Cheung et al., 2009).”
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“Responses of marine macrozoobenthos communities to multiple drivers are far from being understood (Cheung et al., 2009 ; Hoegh-Guldberg & Bruno, 2010 ; Ysebaert & Herman, 2002 ).”
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“In particular, starting from the 70s, abrupt shifts in current climate patterns (Cheung et al., 2009; Pereira et al., 2010; Cahill et al., 2012; Sloyan et al., 2016), alteration of frequency or intensity of environmental phenomena (Garcia-Reyes et al.”
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“As a consequence, the geographical distributions of such species are expected to be highly 48 responsive to future temperature rise (Deutsch et al., 2008; Cheung et al., 2009; Sunday et al., 49 2012).”
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Fisheries status of the bogue Boops boops (Linnaeus, 1758) in Algerian East Coast (Western Mediterranean Sea)
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“Thus, the variability of growth would be related to geographical distribution (Overholtz, 2002; Andersen and Brander, 2009), changes in environmental conditions (Perry et al., 2005; Cheung et al., 2009), climatic effects and fishing effort (Perry et al., 2005; Dulvy et al., 2008).”
BackgroundResultInfluential
Cumulative human impacts in the Bering Strait Region
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“Commercial fishing is expected to increase in the region as the open water season lengthens and as subtemperate species begin to shift their range into northern waters (Cheung et al. 2009; García Molinos et al. 2015), although fisheries management may limit expansion of the sector.”
Background
ICES and PICES Strategies for Coordinating Research on the Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystems
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“There has been a dramatic increase in the rates at which exotic species, introduced by ballast water in ships, are becoming established in ports worldwide (Bax et al. 2003), and climatic changes provide new opportunities for the spread of non-native species (Cheung et al. 2009; Walther et al. 2009).”
Background
Choices of abundance currency, community definition and diversity metric control the predictive power of macroecological models of biodiversity
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Comparison of climate forcing on the marine ecosystems of the Northeast and Northwest Atlantic: A synthesis of the NORCAN Project
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Marine Ecosystems, Biogeochemistry, and Climate
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“The primary factor influencing T. absoluta ’s climatic suitability was identified as the mean daily air temperature in February (tas2).”
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Current and future habitat suitability modelling of Bambusa teres outside forest areas in Nepal under climate change scenarios
Kharel, B., Ayer, S., Kafle, S., Timilsina, S., Bhatta, K., Gautam, J., Acharya, A., Lamichhane, P., & Airee, J. (2024) · Advances in Bamboo Science · doi:10.1016/j.bamboo.2024.100112 · Cited by 9

Authors: Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., & Pauly, D.
Affiliations: University of British Columbia (CA)
Princeton University (US)
Corresponding author: Cheung, William W.L.
ORCID: Cheung, William W.L.
Lam, Vicky W.Y.
Sarmiento, Jorge L.
Kearney, Kelly
Watson, Reg
Pauly, Daniel
Venue: Fish and Fisheries
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2009-08-13
Volume: 10
Issue: 3
Pages: 235-251
ISSN: 1467-2960 (ISSN-L)
1467-2979
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x
OpenAlex: W2170590389
Cited by: 1,626
References: 93
Citations by year: 2026: 48 · 2025: 86 · 2024: 100 · 2023: 124 · 2022: 104 · 2021: 122 · 2020: 160 · 2019: 108 · 2018: 87 · 2017: 96 · 2016: 109 · 2015: 82 · 2014: 90 · 2013: 102 · 2012: 73
FWCI: 39.59
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
figshare.com
Licence: cc-by
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Fish and Fisheries (publishedVersion)
eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion)
Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
Funders: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Aquatic Science › Marine and fisheries research
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
Keywords: climate change impacts, marine biodiversity, species distribution projections, local extinction, biological invasions, species turnover, marine invertebrates, Arctic, Southern Ocean, ecosystem services

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Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

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