Cited by 1,626Species Distribution and Climate ChangeMarine and fisheries researchFish Ecology and Management Studies

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Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

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Cheung, William W.L., Lam, Vicky W.Y., Sarmiento, Jorge L., Kearney, Kelly, Watson, Reg, Pauly, Daniel·2009·Fish and Fisheries

DOI 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x

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Abstract

Climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species’ distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a newly developed dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Our projections show that climate change may lead to numerous local extinction in the sub‐polar regions, the tropics and semi‐enclosed seas. Simultaneously, species invasion is projected to be most intense in the Arctic and the Southern Ocean. Together, they result in dramatic species turnovers of over 60% of the present biodiversity, implying ecological disturbances that potentially disrupt ecosystem services. Our projections can be viewed as a set of hypothesis for future analytical and empirical studies.

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“…life-stage-specific relationship between the aerobic scope of individuals and temperature has been used in models projecting changes in the distribution and productivity of specific populations (e.g. Cucco et al. 2012, Holt & Jørgensen 2014) or across many populations (Cheung et al. 2009).”
Method
Climate-Driven Range Shifts Within Benthic Habitats Across a Marine Biogeographic Transition Zone
Mieszkowska, N., & Sugden, H. E. (2016) · Advances in ecological research/Advances in Ecological Research · doi:10.1016/bs.aecr.2016.08.007 · Cited by 26
“The rate of change to intertidal species and systems is greater than for terrestrial systems (Cheung et al., 2009; Mieszkowska et al., 2014a,b; Poloczanska et al., 2013), however, the response to a global rise in temperature can be spatiotempo-rally variable and species specific, highlighting the…”
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Water Quality of Different Water Bodies
Xia, X. (2015) · Journal of Environmental Informatics · doi:10.3808/jei.201400263 · Cited by 85
Climate change perceptions, impacts on the catches, and adaptation practices of the small-scale fishermen in Togo's coastal area
N’Souvi, K., Adjakpenou, A., Sun, C., & Ayisi, C. (2024) · Environmental Development · doi:10.1016/j.envdev.2023.100957 · Cited by 22
Effect of data spatial scale on the performance of fish habitat models
Núñez-Riboni, I., Akimova, A. A., & Sell, A. (2021) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/faf.12563 · Cited by 22
“This understanding is crucial to explain currently observed and to predict future shifts in species distributions in terrestrial and marine ecosystems under a changing climate (e.g. Cheung et al., 2009; Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; Pecl et al., 2017; Pinsky et al., 2020; Root et al., 2003).”
Background
Thermal biology and swimming performance of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)
Norin, T., Canada, P., Bailey, J. A., & Gamperl, A. K. (2019) · PeerJ · doi:10.7717/peerj.7784 · Cited by 30
Combined Effects of Environmental Drivers on Marine Trophic Groups – A Systematic Model Comparison
Ehrnsten, E., Bauer, B., & Gustafsson, B. G. (2019) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00492 · Cited by 42
“Scenarios are valuable to gain an insight into possible ranges of future states of the ecosystem (Cheung et al., 2009; Brochier et al., 2013).”
Background
Detecting patterns of climate change in long-term forecasts of marine environmental parameters
Coro, G., Pagano, P., & Ellenbroek, A. (2018) · International Journal of Digital Earth · doi:10.1080/17538947.2018.1543365 · Cited by 21
“In several ocean areas this combination has already demonstrated its negative effects at species abundance and biodiversity levels (Cheung et al. 2009).”
Background
Impacts of Climate Change on Pelagic Fish and Fisheries
Muhling, B. A., Lindegren, M., Clausen, L. W., Hobday, A. J., & Lehodey, P. (2017) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781119154051.ch23 · Cited by 26
Submerged oceanic shoals of north Western Australia are a major reservoir of marine biodiversity
Moore, C., Cappo, M., Radford, B., & Heyward, A. (2017) · Coral reefs · doi:10.1007/s00338-017-1564-y · Cited by 22
“Projections of the impacts of climate change on global patterns of diversity include numerous local extinctions in sub-polar regions, the tropics and semi-enclosed seas (Perry et al. 2005; Cheung et al. 2009).”
Background
Important marine sectors for the top predator community around Kerguelen Archipelago
Thiers, L., Delord, K., Bost, C., Guinet, C., & Weimerskirch, H. (2016) · Polar Biology · doi:10.1007/s00300-016-1964-4 · Cited by 32
Effects of lower trophic level biomass and water temperature on fish communities: A modelling study
Guiet, J., Aumont, O., Poggiale, J., & Maury, O. (2016) · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2016.04.003 · Cited by 22
“…focus on the species probability of occurrence as a func-30 3 tion of given environmental variables with ecological niche models (Peterson (2003) ; Cheung et al. (2009)), others disregard species differences and only derive the ecosystem size-spectrum, namely the biomass distribution as a…”
Background
Biodiversity in the Marine Environment
Goulletquer, P., Gros, P., Boeuf, G., & Weber, J. (2014) · Springer Netherlands · doi:10.1007/978-94-017-8566-2 · Cited by 22
Trends in private sector engagement with biodiversity: EU listed companies' disclosure and indicators
Marco-Fondevila, M., & Álvarez‐Etxeberria, I. (2023) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.107864 · Cited by 22
Effects of temperature and interspecific competition on population fitness of free-living marine nematodes
Vafeiadou, A., & Moens, T. (2021) · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106958 · Cited by 22
Effects of Climate Change on Marine Mammals
Boyd, I. L., & Hanson, N. N. (2009) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-012374473-9.00685-8 · Cited by 19
Exploring the evolution of sustainable fisheries development: Focusing on ecological, environmental and management issues
Liu, H., Peng, D., Yang, H.-J., Mu, Y., & Zhu, Y. (2023) · Ecological Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2023.102004 · Cited by 30
Rural livelihood risk to hydro-meteorological extreme events: Empirical evidence from Indian Sundarban applying IPCC-AR5 and DEMATEL methodology
Mondal, M., Biswas, A., Haldar, S., Mandal, S., Mandal, P., Bhattacharya, S., & Paul, S. (2022) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103100 · Cited by 21
Responding to global warming: New fisheries management measures in the Arctic
Jørgensen, L., Bakke, G., & Hoel, A. H. (2020) · Progress in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102423 · Cited by 21
Warming enhances lanthanum accumulation and toxicity promoting cellular damage in glass eels (Anguilla anguilla)
Figueiredo, C., Raimundo, J., Lopes, A. R., Lopes, C., Rosa, N., Brito, P., Diniz, M., Caetano, M., & Grilo, T. F. (2020) · Environmental Research · doi:10.1016/j.envres.2020.110051 · Cited by 26
“Warmer temperatures impose additional pressure on wildlife, by changing ecosystems structure (Cheung et al., 2009).”
Background
Locally managed marine areas: Implications for socio-economic impacts in Kadavu, Fiji
Robertson, T., Greenhalgh, S., Korovulavula, I., Tikoibua, T., Radikedike, P., & Stahlmann‐Brown, P. (2020) · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2020.103950 · Cited by 21
“Given the adverse impacts of marine biodiversity loss [7], projected increases in biodiversity loss [8], the importance of sustaining fishery stocks [6], and the commitment of nations to Aichi Target 11 of the Convention on Biological Diversity [9], MPAs are likely to increase in number and size.”
Background
Back to the future? Late Holocene marine food web structure in a warm climatic phase as a predictor of trophodynamics in a warmer South‐Western Atlantic Ocean
Bas, M., Godino, I. B. I., Álvarez, M., Vales, D., Crespo, E., & Cardona, L. (2018) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14523 · Cited by 21
Non-native marine species in north-west Europe: Developing an approach to assess future spread using regional downscaled climate projections
Townhill, B., Pinnegar, J., Tinker, J., Jones, M. C., Simpson, S., Stebbing, P., & Dye, S. (2017) · doi:10.1002/aqc.2764 · Cited by 21
Vietnam’s seafood boom: Economic growth with impoverishment?
Marschke, M., & Betcherman, G. (2016) · Environment, Development and Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s10668-015-9692-4 · Cited by 21
“Market variation, as seen with the increased global demand for white leg shrimp, and climatic variability, particularly changing temperatures and fish migration patterns, add to this uncertainty19 (Cheung et al. 2009; Badjeck et al. 2010).”
Background
Dynamically-downscaled probabilistic projections of precipitation changes: A Canadian case study
Wang, X., Huang, G., & Baetz, B. W. (2016) · Environmental Research · doi:10.1016/j.envres.2016.03.019 · Cited by 24
“Previously, a large number of studies have been performed in the climate research community aiming at assessing the potential impacts of climate change and thus providing scientific basis for climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies (e.g., Aldy and Pizer, 2015; Arnell and Gosling, 2013; Bellard et al., 2012…”
Background
Marine ecosystems : human impacts on biodiversity, functioning and services
Crowe, T., & Frid, C. (2015) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139794763 · Cited by 21
Fishing games under climate variability: transboundary management of Pacific sardine in the California Current System
Ishimura, G., Herrick, S., & Sumaila, U. (2013) · doi:10.1007/s10018-012-0048-0 · Cited by 21
A Biophysical and Economic Profile of South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands as Potential Large-Scale Antarctic Protected Areas
Rogers, A. D., Yesson, C., & Gravestock, P. (2015) · Advances in marine biology · doi:10.1016/bs.amb.2015.06.001 · Cited by 23
Range contractions, fragmentation, species extirpations, and extinctions of commercially valuable molluscs in the Mediterranean Sea—a climate warming hotspot
Gallagher, K. M., & Albano, P. G. (2023) · ICES Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsad065 · Cited by 22
Tropicalization of demersal megafauna in the western South Atlantic since 2013
Pérez, J. Á. Á., & Sant’Ana, R. (2022) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-022-00553-z · Cited by 21
A social-ecological approach to estimate fisher resilience: a case study from Brazil
Silva, M. R. O., Pennino, M. G., & Lopes, P. F. M. (2020) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-11361-250123 · Cited by 21
“Additionally, the studied region presented a moderate increase in sea surface temperature, which can alter the productivity of marine ecosystems (Cheung et al. 2009) and affect fisher livelihoods due to a decline of fishing resources.”
Background
Benthic ecoregionalization based on echinoid fauna of the Southern Ocean supports current proposals of Antarctic Marine Protected Areas under IPCC scenarios of climate change
Fabri-Ruiz, S., Danis, B., Navarro, N., Koubbi, P., Laffont, R., & Saucède, T. (2020) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14988 · Cited by 20
“Previous work studies have been conducted in this way focusing on ocean biomass evolution according to global change (Lotze et al., 2019), or on fisheries species (Cheung, Lam, & Pauly, 2008; Cheung et al., 2009; Worm et al., 2009).”
Background
Seafloor biodiversity of Canada's three oceans: Patterns, hotspots and potential drivers
Wei, C.-L., Cusson, M., Archambault, P., Belley, R., Brown, T., Burd, B., Edinger, E., Kenchington, E., Gilkinson, K., Lawton, P., et al. (2019) · Diversity and Distributions: A journal of biological invasions and biodiversity · doi:10.1111/ddi.13013 · Cited by 20
“…(Costello et al., 2016), invasive species (Goldsmit, Howland, & Archambault, 2014; Molnar, Gamboa, Revenga, & Spalding, 2008), climate change (Cheung et al., 2009), eutrophication and pollution (Diaz & Rosenberg, 2008), habitat destruction (Halpern et al., 2008) and sea-level rise (Rignot,…”
Water temperature gradient shapes the structure and composition of nearshore marine fish communities in southern Europe
Baptista, J., Martinho, F., Martins, R., Carneiro, M., Azevedo, M., Vieira, A., Gomes, P., & Pardal, M. (2019) · doi:10.1016/j.seares.2019.101807 · Cited by 20
Conceptual advances on global scale assessments of vulnerability: Informing investments for coastal populations at risk of climate change
Comte, A., Pendleton, L., Bailly, D., & Quillérou, E. (2019) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2018.10.038 · Cited by 20
“Examples of such studies include impacts of climate effects on economic sectors in general [2,61], on fisheries [4,12,13], on ecosystem services [46], or on global ecosystems [30].”
Background
Bridging the gap between climate change and maritime security: Towards a comprehensive framework for planning
Mazaris, A. D., & Germond, B. (2018) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.136 · Cited by 24
First records of Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes hexapterus) in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago
Falardeau, M., Bouchard, C., Robert, D., & Fortier, L. (2017) · Polar Biology · doi:10.1007/s00300-017-2141-0 · Cited by 28
“Northward invasions into rapidly warming Arctic marine ecosystems by southern species are occurring at a higher rate than the global average (Cheung et al. 2009; Hollowed et al. 2013; Renaud et al. 2015).”
Background
Temperate macroalgae impacts tropical fish recruitment at forefronts of range expansion
Beck, H., Feary, D., Nakamura, Y., & Booth, D. J. (2017) · Coral reefs · doi:10.1007/s00338-017-1553-1 · Cited by 20
OPEN SCIENCE AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SUPPORTING BLUE GROWTH
Coro, G. (2020) · Environmental Engineering and Management Journal · doi:10.30638/eemj.2020.162 · Cited by 20
Zooplankton link climate to capelin and polar cod in the Barents Sea
Dalpadado, P., Prokopchuk, I., Bogstad, B., Skaret, G., Ingvaldsen, R., Dolgov, A. V., Boyko, A., Rey, A., Ono, K., Bagøien, E., et al. (2024) · Progress in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103302 · Cited by 19
Vulnerability assessment of Korean fisheries to climate change
Kim, M.-J., Hong, J.-B., Han, I.-S., Lee, J., & Kim, D.-H. (2023) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105735 · Cited by 23
Impact of warming and deoxygenation on the habitat distribution of Pacific halibut in the Northeast Pacific
Franco, A. C., Kim, H.-S., Frenzel, H., Deutsch, C. A., Ianson, D., Sumaila, U. R., & Tortell, P. D. (2022) · Fisheries Oceanography · doi:10.1111/fog.12610 · Cited by 29
A Review on Climate Change and its Impact on Agriculture in India
Kumari, S., George, S., Meshram, M., Esther, D., & Kumar, P. (2020) · Current Journal of Applied Science and Technology · doi:10.9734/cjast/2020/v39i4431152 · Cited by 19
“, [42], and further suggest that tropical and temperate fauna may experience substantial range expansion under the combined influence of ocean warming and deoxygenation [43].”
Background
Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean
Clairbaux, M., Cheung, W. W. L., Mathewson, P. D., Porter, W. P., Courbin, N., Fort, J., Strøm, H., Moe, B., Fauchald, P., Descamps, S., et al. (2020) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15497 · Cited by 25
“Fish characteristics required as inputs to the DBEM model (see Cheung et al., 2016 for details) were obtained from the Sea Around Us catch database (http://www.seaar oundus.org) and from FishBase (https://www.fishb ase.se/search.php).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citation
An open-source framework to model present and future marine species distributions at local scale
Lasram, F., Hattab, T., Nogues, Q., Beaugrand, G., Dauvin, J., Halouani, G., Loc'h, F. L., Niquil, N., & Leroy, B. (2020) · Ecological Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2020.101130 · Cited by 19
Using species distribution models to assess the long‐term impacts of changing oceanographic conditions on abalone density in south east Australia
Young, M. A., Treml, E. A., Beher, J., Fredle, M., Gorfine, H. K., Miller, A. D., Swearer, S. E., & Ierodiaconou, D. A. (2020) · Ecography · doi:10.1111/ecog.05181 · Cited by 23

Authors: Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., & Pauly, D.
Affiliations: University of British Columbia (CA)
Princeton University (US)
Corresponding author: Cheung, William W.L.
ORCID: Cheung, William W.L.
Lam, Vicky W.Y.
Sarmiento, Jorge L.
Kearney, Kelly
Watson, Reg
Pauly, Daniel
Venue: Fish and Fisheries
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2009-08-13
Volume: 10
Issue: 3
Pages: 235-251
ISSN: 1467-2960 (ISSN-L)
1467-2979
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x
OpenAlex: W2170590389
Cited by: 1,626
References: 93
Citations by year: 2026: 48 · 2025: 86 · 2024: 100 · 2023: 124 · 2022: 104 · 2021: 122 · 2020: 160 · 2019: 108 · 2018: 87 · 2017: 96 · 2016: 109 · 2015: 82 · 2014: 90 · 2013: 102 · 2012: 73
FWCI: 39.59
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
figshare.com
Licence: cc-by
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Fish and Fisheries (publishedVersion)
eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion)
Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
Funders: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Aquatic Science › Marine and fisheries research
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
Keywords: climate change impacts, marine biodiversity, species distribution projections, local extinction, biological invasions, species turnover, marine invertebrates, Arctic, Southern Ocean, ecosystem services

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Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

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