The DOI matches its Crossref record; 3 of the 3 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK*
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK*
Sharpe, W. F. (1964) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb02865.x · Cited by 19,441
Sharpe, W. F. (1966) · The Journal of Business · doi:10.1086/294846 · Cited by 3,937
SECURITY PRICES, RISK, AND MAXIMAL GAINS FROM DIVERSIFICATION*
Lintner, J. (1965) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1965.tb02930.x · Cited by 2,452
Research works printed but not linked: 39
- Sidney S. Alexander, 1961, Price Movements in Speculative Markets: Trends or Random Walks, Industrial Management Review, 2, 7
- Louis Bachelier, 1900, Théorie de la Speculation, 17
- 10.2307/2490232 · DOI
- WilliamBeaver. “The Information Content of Annual Earnings Announcements.”Empirical Research in Accounting: Selected Studies 1968 supplement to Vol. 7 of the Journal of Accounting Research 67–92. · DOI · Paper page
- MarshallBlume. “The Assessment of Portfolio Performance.”Unpublished Ph.D. thesis University of Chicago 1968. A paper summarizing much of this work will appear in the April 1970 Journal of Business.
- Paul Cootner, 1964, The Random Character of Stock Market Prices
- Paul Cootner, 1962, Stock Prices: Random vs. Systematic Changes, Industrial Management Review, 3, 24
- 10.1086/294743 · DOI · Paper page
- EugeneF. Fama. “Multi‐period Consumption-Investment Decision”American Economic Review (March 1970).
- Eugene F. Fama, 1966, Filter Rules and Stock Market Trading Profits., Journal of Business, 39, 226, 10.1086/294849 · DOI · Paper page
- Lawrence Fisher, 1969, The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information., International Economic Review, 1
- Lawrence Fisher, 1968, Some Properties of Symmetric Stable Distributions., Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63, 817, 10.1080/01621459.1968.11009311 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1111/j.1467-6435.1964.tb02458.x · DOI
- 10.1111/j.1467-6435.1963.tb00270.x · DOI · Paper page
- John R. Hicks, 1946, Value and Capital
- Michael Jensen, 1968, The Performance of Mutual Funds in the Period 1945–64, Journal of Finance, 23, 389, 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00815.x · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1086/295182 · DOI · Paper page
- Maurice G. Kendall, 1953, The Analysis of Economic Time‐Series, Part I: Prices,, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 96, 11, 10.2307/2980947 · DOI · Paper page
- Ruben A. Kessel, 1965, National Bureau of Economic Research Occasional Paper No. 91
- Benjamin F. King, 1966, Market and Industry Factors in Stock Price Behavior,, Journal of Business, 39, 139, 10.1086/294847 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.2307/1924119 · DOI
- Fredrich A. Lutz, 1940, The Structure of Interest Rates,, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 40
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1966, Forecasts of Future Prices, Unbiased Markets, and Martingale Models,, Journal of Business, 39, 242, 10.1086/294850 · DOI
- 10.1086/294632 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1287/opre.15.6.1057 · DOI
- Harry Markowitz, 1959, Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investment
- ArnoldMoore. “A Statistical Analysis of Common Stock Prices”.Unpublished Ph.D. thesis Graduate School of Business University of Chicago 1962.
- Victor Niederhoffer, 1966, Market Making and Reversal on the Stock Exchange, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 61, 897, 10.1080/01621459.1966.10482183 · DOI
- 10.1287/opre.7.2.145 · DOI
- 10.1287/opre.10.3.345 · DOI
- 10.1086/294980 · DOI · Paper page
- Harry V. Roberts, 1959, Stock Market ‘Patterns’ and Financial Analysis: Methodological Suggestions., Journal of Finance, 14, 1
- RichardRoll. “The Efficient Market Model Applied to U.S. Treasury Bill Rates.”Unpublished Ph.D. thesis Graduate School of Business University of Chicago 1968.
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1965, Proof That Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly., Industrial Management Review, 6, 41
- MyronScholes. “A Test of the Competitive Hypothesis: The Market for New Issues and Secondary Offerings.”Unpublished PH.D. thesis Graduate School of Business University of Chicago 1969.
- 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1965.tb02906.x · DOI
- 10.2307/2296205 · DOI
- Jack L. Treynor, 1965, How to Rate Management of Investment Funds., Harvard Business Review, 43, 63
- Holbrook Working, 1934, A Random Difference Series for Use in the Analysis of Time Series., Journal of the American Statistical Association, 29, 11, 10.1080/01621459.1934.10502683 · DOI
Cited by
Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure
Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/0304-405x(76)90026-x · Cited by 71,491
Users of the world, unite! The challenges and opportunities of Social Media
Kaplan, A. M., & Haenlein, M. (2010) · Business Horizons · doi:10.1016/j.bushor.2009.09.003 · Cited by 17,875
Strategic Factor Markets: Expectations, Luck, and Business Strategy
Barney, J. B. (1986) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.32.10.1231 · Cited by 5,548
FAMA, E. F. (1991) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb04636.x · Cited by 5,350
Self-citationTheory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs and Ownership Structure
Jensen (Deceased), M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1998) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.94043 · Cited by 2,749
Stakeholder Theory: The State of the Art
Parmar, B. L., Freeman, R. E., Harrison, J. S., Wicks, A. C., Purnell, L., & de Colle, S. (2010) · Academy of Management Annals · doi:10.5465/19416520.2010.495581 · Cited by 2,755
Towards a Positive Theory of the Determination of Accounting Standards.
Watts, R. L., & Zimmerman, J. L. (1978) · The Accounting Review · doi:10.2308/tar-4500569 · Cited by 2,667
Fama (1998) · doi:10.1016/s0304-405x(98)00026-9 · Cited by 2,576
The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics
Malkiel, B. G. (2003) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/089533003321164958 · Cited by 2,161
Self-citationStock returns and the weekend effect
French, K. R. (1980) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/0304-405x(80)90021-5 · Cited by 1,998
From efficient markets theory to behavioral finance
Shiller, R. J. (2003) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/089533003321164967 · Cited by 1,835
Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality
Keim, D. B. (1983) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/0304-405x(83)90025-9 · Cited by 1,801
An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets
MacKenzie, D. (2006) · doi:10.7551/mitpress/9780262134606.001.0001 · Cited by 1,766
Returns from Investing in Equity Mutual Funds 1971 to 1991
MALKIEL, B. G. (1995) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04795.x · Cited by 1,745
Self-citationBansal, P., & Clelland, I. (2004) · Academy of Management Journal · doi:10.2307/20159562 · Cited by 1,717
Urquhart, A. (2016) · Economics Letters · doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2016.09.019 · Cited by 1,338
Patel, J., Shah, S., Thakkar, P., & Kotecha, K. (2015) · Expert Systems with Applications · doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2014.07.040 · Cited by 1,141
Signaling through corporate accountability reporting
Lys, T., Naughton, J. P., & Wang, C. (2015) · Journal of Accounting and Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jacceco.2015.03.001 · Cited by 952
Stock market's price movement prediction with LSTM neural networks
Nelson, D. M. Q., Pereira, A. C. M., & de Oliveira, R. A. (2017) · 2017 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN) · doi:10.1109/ijcnn.2017.7966019 · Cited by 951
Using genetic algorithms to find technical trading rules
Allen, F., & Karjalainen, R. (1999) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/s0304-405x(98)00052-x · Cited by 855
Measuring skill in the mutual fund industry
Berk, J. B., & van Binsbergen, J. H. (2015) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2015.05.002 · Cited by 820
The inefficiency of Bitcoin revisited: A dynamic approach
Bariviera, A. F. (2017) · Economics Letters · doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2017.09.013 · Cited by 617
Evaluating multiple classifiers for stock price direction prediction
Ballings, M., Van den Poel, D., Hespeels, N., & Gryp, R. (2015) · Expert Systems with Applications · doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2015.05.013 · Cited by 611
Griffin, J. M., Kelly, P. J., & Nardari, F. (2010) · Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/hhq044 · Cited by 556
A systematic review of fundamental and technical analysis of stock market predictions
Nti, I. K., Adekoya, A. F., & Weyori, B. A. (2020) · Artificial Intelligence Review · doi:10.1007/s10462-019-09754-z · Cited by 547
Arbitrage risk and the book-to-market anomaly
Ali, A., Hwang, L.-S., & Trombley, M. A. (2003) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/s0304-405x(03)00116-8 · Cited by 518
Efficient market hypothesis and forecasting
Timmermann, A., & Granger, C. W. J. (2004) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(03)00012-8 · Cited by 517
Stock Market Analysis: A Review and Taxonomy of Prediction Techniques
Shah, D., Isah, H., & Zulkernine, F. (2019) · International Journal of Financial Studies · doi:10.3390/ijfs7020026 · Cited by 465
The evolution of stock market efficiency over time: A survey of the empirical literature
Lim, K.-P., & Brooks, R. (2011) · Journal of Economic Surveys · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6419.2009.00611.x · Cited by 410
The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns
Ranco, G., Aleksovski, D., Caldarelli, G., Grčar, M., & Mozetič, I. (2015) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0138441 · Cited by 395
“tions must be aggregated in order to draw overall conclusions for the events of interest. The aggregation is along two dimensions: through time and across stocks. By aggregating across all the stocks [52], we get: ARτ = (1/N) XN i=1 ARi,τ . (10) The cumulative abnormal return (CAR) from time τ1 to τ2 is the sum of the…”
Informational efficiency of Bitcoin—an extension
Tiwari, A. K., Jana, R. K., Das, D., & Roubaud, D. (2018) · Economics Letters · doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2017.12.006 · Cited by 365
Busch, T., & Friede, G. (2018) · Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management · doi:10.1002/csr.1480 · Cited by 345
Campbell, J. T., Sirmon, D. G., & Schijven, M. (2016) · Academy of Management Journal · doi:10.5465/amj.2013.0663 · Cited by 325
Are Asian stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests
Kim, J. H., & Shamsuddin, A. (2008) · Journal of Empirical Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jempfin.2007.07.001 · Cited by 311
Learning and the disappearing association between governance and returns
Bebchuk, L. A., Cohen, A., & Wang, C. C. Y. (2013) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2012.10.004 · Cited by 311
Risk Factors, Confounding, and the Illusion of Statistical Control
Christenfeld, N. J. S., Sloan, R. P., Carroll, D., & Greenland, S. (2004) · Psychosomatic Medicine · doi:10.1097/01.psy.0000140008.70959.41 · Cited by 260
Forbidden patterns, permutation entropy and stock market inefficiency
Zunino, L., Zanin, M., Tabak, B. M., Pérez, D. G., & Rosso, O. A. (2009) · Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications · doi:10.1016/j.physa.2009.03.042 · Cited by 249
How rewarding is technical analysis? Evidence from Singapore stock market
Wong, W.-K., Manzur, M., & Chew, B.-K. (2003) · Applied Financial Economics · doi:10.1080/0960310022000020906 · Cited by 236
Historical presidential betting markets
Rhode, P. W., & Strumpf, K. S. (2004) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/0895330041371277 · Cited by 228
Predicting the direction of stock market prices using random forest
Khaidem, L., Saha, S., & Dey, S. R. (2016) · arXiv · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1605.00003 · Cited by 227
de Oliveira, F. A., Nobre, C. N., & Zárate, L. E. (2013) · Expert Systems with Applications · doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2013.06.071 · Cited by 220
Bridging the divide in financial market forecasting: machine learners vs. financial economists
Hsu, M.-W., Lessmann, S., Sung, M.-C., Ma, T., & Johnson, J. E. V. (2016) · Expert Systems with Applications · doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2016.05.033 · Cited by 195
Cervelló-Royo, R., Guijarro, F., & Michniuk, K. (2015) · Expert Systems with Applications · doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2015.03.017 · Cited by 186
Stock Price Forecasting with Deep Learning: A Comparative Study
Shahi, T. B., Shrestha, A., Neupane, A., & Guo, W. (2020) · Mathematics · doi:10.3390/math8091441 · Cited by 183
The profitability of moving average trading rules in South Asian stock markets
Gunasekarage, A., & Power, D. M. (2001) · Emerging Markets Review · doi:10.1016/s1566-0141(00)00017-0 · Cited by 178
Information and efficiency: an empirical study of a fixed odds betting market
Kuypers, T. (2000) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036840050151449 · Cited by 172
Automated trading with performance weighted random forests and seasonality
Booth, A., Gerding, E., & McGroarty, F. (2014) · Expert Systems with Applications · doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2013.12.009 · Cited by 154
Adaptive Quantitative Trading: An Imitative Deep Reinforcement Learning Approach
Liu, Y., Liu, Q., Zhao, H., Pan, Z., & Liu, C. (2020) · Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence · doi:10.1609/aaai.v34i02.5587 · Cited by 141
(2011) · Social Problems · doi:10.1525/sp.2011.58.4.491 · Cited by 129
Rosillo, R., de la Fuente, D., & Brugos, J. A. L. (2013) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036846.2011.631894 · Cited by 105
Revisiting the Performance of MACD and RSI Oscillators
Chong, T., Ng, W.-K., & Liew, V. (2014) · Journal of Risk and Financial Management · doi:10.3390/jrfm7010001 · Cited by 95
The Stock Performance of C. Everett Koop Award Winners Compared With the Standard & Poor's 500 Index
Goetzel, R. Z., Fabius, R., Fabius, D., Roemer, E. C., Thornton, N., Kelly, R. K., & Pelletier, K. R. (2016) · Journal of Occupational & Environmental Medicine · doi:10.1097/jom.0000000000000632 · Cited by 69
Martinelli, G. D. C., Schlindwein, M. M., Padovan, M. P., & Gimenes, R. M. T. (2019) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.09.019 · Cited by 65
Fundamentals or Noise? Evidence from the Professional Basketball Betting Market
BROWN, W. O., & SAUER, R. D. (1993) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04751.x · Cited by 59
Reinforcement Learning in Stock Trading
Dang, Q.-V. (2020) · Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-38364-0_28 · Cited by 57
Irwin, S. H. (2013) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12048 · Cited by 56
Fuzzy adaptive decision-making for boundedly rational traders in speculative stock markets
Bekiros, S. D. (2010) · European Journal of Operational Research · doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2009.04.015 · Cited by 53
Learning to Generate Explainable Stock Predictions using Self-Reflective Large Language Models
Koa, K. J. L., Ma, Y., Ng, R., & Chua, T.-S. (2024) · Proceedings of the ACM Web Conference 2024 · doi:10.1145/3589334.3645611 · Cited by 47
A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Analysis of the FTSE and S&P500 Indexes
Allen, D., & McAleer, M. (2021) · Risks · doi:10.3390/risks9110195 · Cited by 35
Performance of technical trading rules: evidence from the crude oil market
Psaradellis, I., Laws, J., Pantelous, A. A., & Sermpinis, G. (2019) · The European Journal of Finance · doi:10.1080/1351847x.2018.1552172 · Cited by 27
Are betting markets efficient? Evidence from European Football Championships
Direr, A. (2013) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036846.2011.602010 · Cited by 25
An Experiment on Prediction Markets in Science
Almenberg, J., Kittlitz, K., & Pfeiffer, T. (2009) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0008500 · Cited by 24
Informational Efficiency and Behaviour Within In-Play Prediction Markets
Angelini, G., De Angelis, L., & Singleton, C. (2020) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3505287 · Cited by 23
Effectiveness of the Relative Strength Index Signals in Timing the Cryptocurrency Market
Zatwarnicki, M., Zatwarnicki, K., & Stolarski, P. (2023) · Sensors · doi:10.3390/s23031664 · Cited by 29
Brain Activity Foreshadows Stock Price Dynamics
Stallen, M., Borg, N., & Knutson, B. (2021) · The Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.1727-20.2021 · Cited by 18
Home advantage and mispricing in indoor sports’ ghost games: the case of European basketball
De Angelis, L., & Reade, J. J. (2023) · Annals of Operations Research · doi:10.1007/s10479-022-04950-7 · Cited by 18
Mastering Stock Markets with Efficient Mixture of Diversified Trading Experts
Sun, S., Wang, X., Xue, W., Lou, X., & An, B. (2023) · Proceedings of the 29th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining · doi:10.1145/3580305.3599424 · Cited by 16
Neglect of Multiplicity When Testing Families of Related Hypotheses*
Holland, B., fang, S. W., & Basu, S. (2009) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1466343 · Cited by 13
(2013) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 7
Weak Form Efficiency in Sports Betting Markets
(2023) · American Journal of Management · doi:10.33423/ajm.v23i2.6051 · Cited by 3
On the impact of publicly available news and information transfer to financial markets
Jazbec, M., Pàsztor, B., Faltings, F., Antulov-Fantulin, N., & Kolm, P. N. (2021) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.202321 · Cited by 3
Li, W., Wang, X., Wang, Z., & Yang, M. (2023) · Journal of Accounting and Finance · doi:10.33423/jaf.v23i4.6453 · Cited by 2
Explainable machine learning for corporate financial distress prediction in Vietnam
Le Nam, T., & Phan Huy, T. (2026) · Cogent Business & Management · doi:10.1080/23311975.2026.2670659 · Cited by 2
Metadata
- Authors
- Malkiel, B. G., & Fama, E. F.
- Venue
- The Journal of Finance
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 1970-05
- Volume
- 25
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 383-417
- ISSN
- 0022-1082 (ISSN-L)
- 1540-6261
- OpenAlex
- W2131773668
- Cited by
- 15,699
- References
- 3
- FWCI
- 133.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.