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Cited by 22Electoral Systems and Political ParticipationPopulism, Right-Wing MovementsPolitical Dynamics in Latin America

Them’ without ‘us’: Negative identities and affective polarization in Brazil

Open access
Areal, João·2022·Political Research Exchange
DOI 10.1080/2474736x.2022.2117635PMC PMC9484554
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Abstract

High levels of hostility between those on opposing sides of politics have led to a burgeoning literature on the concept of affective polarization. Though a globally widespread phenomenon, extant literature has generated theoretical expectations and empirical findings mostly inspired by the United States and Western Europe. By studying the case of Brazil, I argue and show that traditional explanations do not provide satisfactory accounts of affective polarization in contexts where politics is only weakly structured by ideology or partisan attachments. I argue and show that in such contexts the concept of negative political identities can provide a much better explanation for why politics is so divisive. Using both the 2014 and 2018 waves of the Brazilian Electoral Studies (BES) and independently collected survey data (N = 1732), I provide robust empirical findings supporting the primacy of negative political identities over traditional explanations. Negative identification with the out-party/leader has a strong effect on dislike towards out-voters even when controlling for instrumental evaluations of political elites. This paper contributes to the comparative research agenda on affective polarization outside Western contexts, as well as to the study of negative political identities.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

The paper argues that affective polarization in Brazil is driven less by ideology or positive partisan identities than by negative political identities—rejection of the opposing party or leader. Using BES 2014/2018 and an original online survey, it finds negative identification strongly predicts out-voter dislike even when controlling for out-party dislike.

Key findings

  • Negative identification with the out-party/leader strongly predicts out-voter dislike: a one-standard-deviation increase raises out-voter dislike by 0.86 points on an 11-point scale (p = 0.000); across its interquartile range, it raises dislike by 1.29 points. Its effect is significantly stronger than positive identification (F = 8.73).
  • Traditional explanations perform poorly: the full BES model has adjusted R² = 0.08; ideological distance across its interquartile range changes out-party dislike by only 0.3 points (0.10 SD), and issue constraint is minimal and statistically insignificant. In the online survey, adjusted R² rises from 0.13 in the base model to 0.40 when negative identification is added, and 0.42 in the full model.
  • Negative identities are more prevalent than positive ones: 53% of Bolsonaro voters agreed they would describe themselves as “anti-PT,” while 19% described themselves as bolsonaristas; 88% of PT voters described themselves as “anti-Bolsonaro,” but only 8% as petistas.
  • Out-party dislike correlates only 0.56 with out-partisan dislike and 0.45 with out-voter dislike, supporting the paper’s distinction between elite-directed and citizen-directed hostility. Social sorting is significant in the BES model (p = 0.03) but not in the survey model (p = 0.09).

Methods

  • Design: tests traditional affective-polarization explanations against negative political identities in Brazil, using the 2014 and 2018 waves of the Brazilian Electoral Study (BES) and an independently collected online survey fielded in April–May 2020.
  • Data: BES final analytic sample is 2,870 respondents; the online survey is reported as N = 1,732 in the abstract and 1,728 in the data section, with the main survey model using N = 865. The online sample skews male, white, higher income, higher education, and younger.
  • Analysis: OLS models with sample weights. The BES dependent variable is reverse-coded out-party affect; the online survey dependent variable is out-voter dislike. Predictors include ideological distance, party-issue constraint, social sorting, and positive/negative identity scales; models control for out-party affect. Factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis assess the identity scales.

Limitations

  • Stated: ideology measures infer distance and alignment from aggregate positions rather than directly exposing respondents to opposing views; social sorting uses objective demographics rather than subjective identification; the online sample’s skew cannot be fully corrected, so findings might be driven by high-socioeconomic-status respondents; future work should use experiments and study media effects.
  • Evident: the online survey is nonrepresentative—90% had some tertiary education versus 28% in BES 2018, and only 23% reported voting for Bolsonaro versus the actual 55% vote share. The text also reports inconsistent online survey Ns (1,732 vs. 1,728).

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1080/2474736x.2022.2117635

Cites

79 of 80 references verified0 citation errors · 1 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 73 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

Verify all 42 references — free account
  • Findingown data

    Traditional explanations for affective polarization perform particularly poorly in the Brazilian context.

    “I show that these lines of explanation perform particularly poorly in the Brazilian context.”
    • Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
      “traditional explanations do not provide satisfactory accounts of affective polarization in contexts where politics is only weakly structured by ideology or partisan attachments.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Negative identification with the out-party/leader has a strong effect on dislike towards out-voters even when controlling for instrumental evaluations of political elites.

    “Negative identification with the out-party/leader has a strong effect on dislike towards out-voters even when controlling for instrumental evaluations of political elites.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    These negative identities are the primary mechanism through which Brazilians dislike their fellow citizens.

    “and that these negative identities are the primary mechanism through which Brazilians dislike their fellow citizens.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    A deep rejection of the opposing side's party/leader constitutes a prevalent form of social identity (e.g. antipetista and antibolsonarista).

    “I show that a deep rejection of the the opposing side's party/leader constitutes a prevalent form of social identity (e.g. antipetista and antibolsonarista)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    In the single-item PID/NID model, negative identification had a statistically significant stronger effect than positive identification on out-voter dislike (F = 8.73).

    “Negative identification still returned a stronger effect (, p = 0.000) than positive identification (, p = 0.01), which was confirmed by a robust F-test for the difference in coefficients between these two variables.”
    • Also stated in: § Results · boosted
      “The results confirm that negative identification has a statistically significant stronger effect size on out-voter dislike, in line with Hypothesis 3 (F = 8.73, ).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1
  • May combine two claims. 49
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 24

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    The effects of negative identities far surpass those of ideological disagreements and in-group attachments.

    “Further, the effects of negative identities far surpass those of ideological disagreements and in-group attachments”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Socially sorted individuals display higher levels of affective polarization in the BES model (p = 0.03), though in the survey model the coefficient is substantively large but not statistically significant (p = 0.09).

    “This is indeed the case in the BES model (, p = 0.03), though in the survey model the coefficient is substantively large but not statistically significant (, p = 0.09).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For PT voters, 88% described themselves as 'anti-Bolsonaro', but only 8% as petistas.

    “For PT voters, 88% described themselves as ‘anti-Bolsonaro’, but only 8% as petistas.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Both the positive and negative identity scales returned scalability scores above conventional 0.6 cut-off points, with NID presenting a slightly higher coefficient than the tried-and-tested PID.

    “Both the positive and negative identity scales returned scalability scores above conventional 0.6 cut-off points, with NID even presenting a slightly higher coefficient than the tried-and-tested PID.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The effects of issue constraint (Hypothesis 1b) in both models is minimal and statistically insignificant.

    “Further, the effects of issue constraint (Hypothesis 1b) in both models is minimal and statistically insignificant.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Removing items 2 and 3 from the PID scale returns a two-factor model with both RMSEA and RMSR below 0.08, and Tucker Lewis and Comparative Fit Indices above 0.95.

    “Removing items 2 and 3 from the PID scale, however, returns a two-factor model with both RMSEA and RMSR below 0.08, and Tucker Lewis and Comparative Fit Indices above 0.95 (see Table A10).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Out-party dislike is correlated at only 0.56 with out-partisan dislike, and even lower at 0.45 with out-voter dislike.

    “Out-party dislike, the traditional measure of affective polarization in extant literature, is correlated at only 0.56 with out-partisan dislike, and even lower at 0.45 with out-voter dislike.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The second and third PID items had slightly stronger factor loadings on the 'negative' dimension and had generally weaker loadings altogether, suggesting a poor fit with the proposed factors.

    “Conversely, the second and third PID items in Table 1 had slightly stronger factor loadings on the ‘negative’ dimension and had generally weaker loadings altogether, suggesting a poor fit with the proposed factors.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Respondents clearly differentiated between voters, partisans and parties, with out-voters receiving higher affective scores.

    “In line with Druckman and Levendusky (2019) and Kingzette (2021), respondents clearly differentiated between voters, partisans and parties, with out-voters receiving higher affective scores.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Druckman and Levendusky (2019) source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Kingzette (2021)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The eight-item, two-dimensional model overperforms a one-dimensional model through a confirmatory factor analysis but does not meet conventional measures of model fit.

    “This eight-item, two-dimensional model overperforms a one-dimensional model through a confirmatory factor analysis (see Table 2) but does not meet conventional measures of model fit.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the BES model, the association between ideological distance and affective polarization is statistically significant (p = 0.000), but in the opposite direction and without reaching statistical significance in the survey model (p = 0.36).

    “In the BES model this association is statistically significant (, p = 0.000), but in the opposite direction and without reaching statistical significance in the survey model (, p = 0.36).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    After remaining mostly constant between 2002 and 2014, out-party ratings plummeted in 2018 whilst in-party ratings saw no significant changes.

    “After remaining mostly constant between 2002 and 2014, out-party ratings plummeted in 2018 whilst in-party ratings saw no significant changes, serving as further circumstantial evidence that hating ‘the other’ is only weakly related to how much Brazilians like their own side.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The full model adds the out-party dislike variable and results in a final adjusted R2 of 0.42.

    “Finally, the full model adds the out-party dislike variable, which served as a hard constraint on negative identification, resulting in the final adjusted- of 0.42.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the model using only single-item PID and NID measures, both positive and negative identification were statistically and substantively significant predictors of affective polarization.

    “In this model both variables were statistically and substantively significant in predicting affective polarization.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    53% of Bolsonaro voters agreed or heavily agreed that they would describe themselves as 'anti-PT', and around 19% described themselves as bolsonaristas.

    “More importantly, 53% of Bolsonaro voters agreed or heavily agreed that they would describe themselves as ‘anti-PT’, and around 19% described themselves as bolsonaristas.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Ideological distance, alignment between ideology and party of choice, and social divisions are only inconsistently associated with affective polarization and provide very little explanatory power.

    “Ideological distance, alignment between ideology and party of choice, and social divisions are only inconsistently associated with affective polarization, providing very little explanatory power.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Brazil displays none of the features of highly institutionalized party systems, programmatic patterns of political competition, strong linkages between social groups and political parties, and entrenched and stable partisan identities.

    “Like most of Latin American (Kitschelt et al. 2010) and Eastern European (Rose and Mishler 1998) countries, Brazil displays none of the above features.”
    • Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
      “Such contexts are characterized by highly institutionalized party systems (Dalton and Weldon 2007), programmatic patterns of political competition (Kitschelt 2000), strong linkages between social groups and political parties (Lipset and Rokkan 1967), and entrenched and stable partisan identities (Huddy, Mason, and Aarøe 2015).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Dalton and Weldon 2007 source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Kitschelt 2000 source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Lipset and Rokkan 1967

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Negative information may exert greater effect on attitudes than positive information.

    “a vast literature on the concept of negativity bias (e.g. Soroka 2014) suggests negative information may exert greater effect on attitudes than positive information.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Soroka 2014 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Brazilian parties derive their support from pork-barrel politics, leader's evaluations, clientelism, or the state of the economy.

    “with parties deriving their support from pork-barrel politics (Ibid.), leader's evaluations (Baker et al. 2016), clientelism (Mainwaring 1999), or the state of the economy (see Carreirão and Renno 2018 for a review).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Mainwaring et al. 2018

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Baker et al. 2016

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Mainwaring 1999 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The number of partisans in Brazil has been unstable and comparatively low, reaching 50% of the electorate in its peak, but generally hovering at around 30%.

    “Firstly, the number of partisans in Brazil has been unstable and comparatively low, reaching 50% of the electorate in its peak, but generally hovering at around 30% (Samuels and Zucco 2018).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Samuels and Zucco 2018

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    The strength of negative political identities amongst the Brazilian electorate bespeaks an increasingly hostile and uncompromising polity.

    “The strength of negative political identities amongst the Brazilian electorate bespeaks an increasingly hostile and uncompromising polity”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    It would be pure tautology to show that 'never voting for a party' is associated with negative feelings towards that party.

    “Since it would be pure tautology to show that ‘never voting for a party’ is associated with negative feelings towards that party, we also need to operationalize affective polarization as hostility towards other citizens.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The PT's electoral success and deliberate efforts to cultivate a clear brand made it a clear and salient party to either like or dislike.

    “as the party's electoral success and deliberate efforts to cultivate a clear brand made it a clear and salient party to either like or dislike.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Samuels and Zucco 2018

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Non-supporters of the PT lacked any clear party to belong to and thus could not satisfy their need for in-group belonging.

    “This meant that non-supporters of the PT lacked any clear party to belong to and thus could not satisfy their need for in-group belonging.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Through a need for distinctiveness, Brazilians 'negatively identify' with the party/leader that symbolizes the 'other side' of politics, which is theorized to have strong effects on out-group hostility.

    “Through a need for distinctiveness, Brazilians ‘negatively identify’ with the party/leader that symbolizes the ‘other side’ of politics, which is theorized to have strong effects on out-group hostility.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Political parties in Brazil have seldom tried to convey group-based appeals and have been largely unsuccessful when they did try, resulting in heterogeneous social bases of support without clear linkages with specific social groups.

    “Political parties have seldom tried to convey group-based appeals and have been largely unsuccessful when they did try, resulting in rather heterogeneous social bases of support without clear linkages with specific social groups (Mainwaring 1999).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Mainwaring 1999 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Partisan attachments in Brazil are not widespread nor linked to politicized social identities.

    “This is not the case in Brazil, however, where partisan attachments are not widespread nor linked to politicized social identities.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Radical-right parties in Western Europe tend to be more disliked than their ideological extremism would predict.

    “Similarly, Gidron et al. (forthcoming) show that radical-right parties in Western Europe tend to be more disliked than their ideological extremism would predict.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Gidron et al. (forthcoming)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The notion of a clear and recent bolsonarista identity is far more concrete, laying the grounds for a negative antibolsonarista social identity.

    “The notion of a clear and recent bolsonarista identity, however, is far more concrete (Rennó 2020), laying the grounds for a negative antibolsonarista social identity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Rennó 2020 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    There exists an 'out-group-only' categorization, where an individual perceives a cohesive group as 'the other' to which she does not belong, without a corresponding in-group.

    “Leonardelli and Toh (2015) argue for the existence of an ‘out-group-only’ categorization, where an individual perceives a cohesive group as ‘the other’ to which she does not belong, without a corresponding in-group.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Leonardelli and Toh 2015

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Brazilian partisans are few in quantity and low in terms of social identification, making partisanship an unlikely explanation for out-group hostility in the country.

    “In other words, Brazilian partisans are few in quantity and low in terms of social identification, making partisanship an unlikely explanation for out-group hostility in the country.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    PT sympathizers or left-leaning Brazilians lacked a clear out-group, since no other mainstream party cultivated a partisan base to stand in contrast to that of the PT.

    “I argue that this was due to a lack of a clear out-group for PT sympathizers or left-leaning Brazilians, since no other mainstream party cultivated a partisan base to stand in contrast to that of the PT.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Contextual political factors - such as lack of efforts on the part of elites to develop partisan identification, non-programmatic political competition, extreme policies and divisive rhetoric - can make in-group belonging less likely for a significant portion of voters, whilst at the same time fostering a need for these individuals to distance themselves from relevant political actors.

    “Contextual political factors — such as lack of efforts on the part of elites to develop partisan identification, non-programmatic political competition, extreme policies and divisive rhetoric — can make in-group belonging less likely for a significant portion of voters, whilst at the same time fostering a need for these individuals to distance themselves from relevant political actors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Social cleavages in Brazil have not been strongly articulated into politics, nor properly mobilized by political actors.

    “these cleavages have not been strongly articulated into politics, neither have they been properly mobilized by political actors (Samuels and Zucco 2014a).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Samuels and Zucco 2014a

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Brazilians lack a basic understanding of left and right and show low levels of issue constraint.

    “Similarly, Brazilians are said to lack a basic understanding of left and right and to show low levels of issue constraint (Ames and Smith 2010; Kearney and Machado 2018).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Ames and Smith 2010 source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Kearney and Machado 2018 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation

    The rise in the number of 'far-right' Brazilians might be an artefact of a growing identification with Jair Bolsonaro rather than a meaningful change in ideological beliefs.

    “such that the rise in the number of ‘far-right’ Brazilians might be an artefact of a growing identification with Jair Bolsonaro rather than a meaningful change in ideological beliefs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    There is little ideological differentiation between partisan camps in Brazil, with issue positions being only weakly related to vote choice or party affect.

    “several past studies (e.g. Borges and Vidigal 2018; Oliveira and Turgeon 2015) have found little ideological differentiation between partisan camps, with issue positions being only weakly (if at all) related to vote choice or party affect.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Borges and Vidigal 2018

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Oliveira and Turgeon 2015

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Brazilians seem to dislike 'them' without having or particularly liking any clearly defined 'us'.

    “Whilst affective polarization is often framed as a battle between ‘us’ versus ‘them’, Brazilians seem to dislike ‘them’ without having or particularly liking any clearly defined ‘us’.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    The case of Brazil suggests that factors such as weak party system institutionalization, non-programmatic and dichotomized competition, and low levels of political trust may foster the formation of negative identities.

    “Further, the case of Brazil suggests that factors such as weak party system institutionalization, non-programmatic and dichotomized competition, and low levels of political trust may foster the formation of negative identities.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Reversing the PID scale items to measure negative identification makes the measures directly comparable and allows for a robust test of their independent effects.

    “Firstly, it makes the measures directly comparable and thus allows for a robust test of their independent effects (see Hypothesis 3).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The final analytic sample for BES consisted of 2870 respondents.

    “The final analytic sample consisted of 2870 respondents.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The measurement approach taken to assess the effects of ideology-based explanations infers both distance and alignment from aggregate measures, and does not directly expose individuals to different views held by their fellow citizens.

    “The measurement approach taken to assess the effects of ideology-based explanations infers both distance and alignment from aggregate measures, and does not directly expose individuals to different views held by their fellow citizens.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Results from the BES model provide a more robust test of social sorting, and the significant effect of social sorting is in line with the increased demographic polarization found by Layton et al. (2021).

    “Results from the BES model provide a more robust test of this particular variable, and the significant effect of social sorting is in line with the increased demographic polarization found by Layton et al. (2021).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Layton et al. (2021) source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The theoretical and empirical findings of this paper go well beyond the particular case of Brazil.

    “The theoretical and empirical findings of this paper go well beyond the particular case of Brazil.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Controlling for out-party affective ratings isolates the independent effect of negative identification from instrumental evaluations, and negatively identifying with the out-party should still return a strong effect on out-voter dislike even when accounting for how much a respondent dislikes their out-party.

    “In order to isolate the independent effect of negative identification from instrumental evaluations in the online survey models, I control for out-party affective ratings. In short, it means that, even when accounting for how much a respondent simply ‘dislikes’ their out-party or candidate, negatively identifying with it should still return a strong effect on out-voter dislike.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Traditional explanations might tell us little about the roots of affective polarization beyond the United States and Western Europe.

    “Traditional explanations might tell us little about the roots of affective polarization beyond the United States and Western Europe.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    By 'triangulating' the empirical results, findings can be supported by both external and internal validity.

    “By ‘triangulating’ the empirical results, findings can be supported by both external and internal validity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The BES samples are of high quality.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Inconsistencies in the PID items may be adding random noise to the scale, potentially masking the impact of positive identities on affective polarization.

    “However, inconsistencies in the PID items may be adding random noise to the scale, potentially masking the impact of positive identities on affective polarization.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    All NID items loaded strongly on the same dimension and very weakly in the second factor, suggesting that the negative identity scale is internally cohesive and captures an independent latent trait.

    “All NID items loaded strongly on the same dimension and very weakly in the second factor (See Tables A8 and A9 in Appendix), further suggesting that the negative identity scale is internally cohesive and captures an independent latent trait.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The biggest source of bias in the online survey is education: 90% of survey respondents had some tertiary education, compared to 28% of BES 2018 respondents.

    “The biggest source of bias is, by far, education — while only 28% of BES 2018 respondents had some level of tertiary education, this was true for 90% of survey respondents.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    In an era of weakening partisan ties, negative partisanship is an increasingly relevant factor determining political behaviour in contexts such as the US, Canada, and across Anglo and European democracies.

    “In an era of weakening partisan ties (Dalton and Wattenberg 2002), negative partisanship is an increasingly relevant factor determining political behaviour in contexts such as the US (Abramowitz and Webster 2016), Canada (Caruana, McGregor, and Stephenson 2015), and across Anglo (Medeiros and Noël 2014) and European (Mayer 2017) democracies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Dalton and Wattenberg 2002

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Abramowitz and Webster 2016 source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Caruana, McGregor, and Stephenson 2015

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductcitation

    Measures of social sorting capture objective social demographics rather than an individual's subjective sense of identification with his or her social category.

    “Similarly, measures of social sorting captures objective social demographics rather than an individual's subjective sense of identification with his or her social category (see Mason and Wronski 2018), which future research should also address.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Mason and Wronski 2018

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Negative partisanship can be conceptualized and measured as a type of social identity, exerting strong independent effects on political attitudes.

    “Much like its positive counterpart, negative partisanship can also be conceptualized and measured as a type of social identity, exerting strong independent effects on political attitudes.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The literature on negative partisanship lacks an integrated theoretical framework and robust conceptualization.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Negative identities were much more prevalent than positive ones, especially amongst PT voters.

    “In sum, negative identities were much more prevalent than positive ones, especially amongst PT voters.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The online survey respondents were more male, white, of higher income and educational levels, and younger than the BES 2018 sample.

    “In short, the online survey respondents were more male, white, of higher income and educational levels, and younger.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The findings might be driven by the skewness of the sample towards individuals of higher socio-economic status, and this cannot be fully discarded.

    “Thirdly, though several measures were taken to account for the less-than-ideal survey sample, we cannot fully discard that findings might be driven by the skewness of the sample towards individuals of higher socio-economic status.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    No measures of negative identification were present in the BES data, and thus Hypothesis 3 cannot be tested with BES data.

    “No measures of negative identification were present, and thus Hypothesis 3 cannot be tested with BES data.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    A proper test of Hypothesis 3 requires a more fine-grained operationalization of both negative identities and out-group hostility than the ones that are commonly found in existing datasets.

    “A proper test of Hypothesis 3, thus, requires a more fine-grained operationalization of both negative identities and out-group hostility than the ones that are commonly found in existing datasets.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    These findings remained the same if using the entire PID and NID scales and across levels of self-reported political interest.

    “These findings remained the same if using the entire PID and NID scales (i.e. summing the individual items and taking the overall mean for each scale), and across levels of self-reported political interest.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The traditional left-right scale is 'notoriously noisy' in Brazil's non-programmatic context and has been shown to be highly endogenous to (especially presidential) affect.

    “The traditional left-right scale, however, is ‘notoriously noisy’ in Brazil's non-programmatic context (Samuels and Zucco 2018, p. 40), and has been shown to be highly endogenous to (especially presidential) affect.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Samuels and Zucco 2018

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The direct comparability of the reversed PID scale means that the tried-and-tested PID scale can serve as an 'anchor': if NID can also be reliably measured amongst the same respondents, this can add robustness to its measurement properties and alleviate sample bias concerns.

    “Secondly, this direct comparability means that the tried-and-tested PID scale can serve as an ‘anchor’: if NID can also be reliably measured amongst the same respondents, this can add robustness to its measurement properties and alleviate sample bias concerns.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The mass protests of recent years indicate politics is increasingly salient to Brazilians, who had previously shown low and decreasing levels of engagement with political activities.

    “The mass protests of recent years indicate politics is increasingly salient to Brazilians, who had previously shown low and decreasing levels of engagement with political activities (Borba and Ribeiro 2018).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Borba and Ribeiro 2018 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Using out-voter dislike as the dependent variable separates feelings towards elites from those directed at citizens, which can alleviate endogeneity problems in the proposed relationship.

    “In the following analyses I use out-voter dislike as the dependent variable so as to separate feelings towards elites from those directed at citizens, which can alleviate endogeneity problems in the proposed relationship (i.e. negative identification and out-group dislike).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Political interest should capture much of the biases introduced by high levels of education, and the variation in responses allows weights to reasonably account for over-representation of highly educated respondents.

    “Political interest should capture much of the biases introduced by high levels of education, and the variation in responses allows weights to reasonable account for over-representation of highly educated respondents.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The online survey reached a total of 1728 Brazilians aged 18 or above.

    “The online questionnaire was circulated throughout April and May 2020, reaching a total of 1728 Brazilians aged 18 or above.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
65 of 65

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The BES samples are of high quality.

    “This analytic strategy can leverage the high quality of the BES samples and the fine-grained measures provided by my survey data.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The BES and Online Survey models are comparable enough for their adjusted R2 values to be meaningfully compared despite different operationalizations of the dependent variable and possible sample bias.

    “This difference may lie on different operationalisations of the dependent variable (out-party for BES, out-voter for Online Survey) or sample bias, and thus this model primarily serves as the baseline for other iterations.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The literature on negative partisanship lacks an integrated theoretical framework and robust conceptualization.

    “This literature, however, still suffers from the lack of an integrated theoretical framework and robust conceptualization.”
3 of 3

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • People can hold strong affect for certain political groups even without strong social identities.

    “Focusing on Brazil, for example, Areal (2022) finds that people can hold strong affect for certain political groups even without strong social identities.”

    From Measuring affective polarization: Matching concepts to measures (2026) · cites this paper as Areal, 2022

    The theoretical framework (‘Social identities in Brazil: rare and non-politicized’; page unavailable) says strong attachments to political in-groups are uncommon in Brazil, while the Results report substantial out-party dislike. But the paper attributes that hostility in part to negative political identities, which it treats as social identities. It supports the claim if ‘social identities’ means positive in-group identities, not social identities of any kind. (LLM, conf=0.83)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Social-sorting description counts one extra demographic dimension

    Minor

    The paper lists six demographic dimensions, but says that after calculating the religious dimension it repeats the procedure for the "other six." That would require seven dimensions in total.

  • Online survey sample size differs by four respondents

    Minor

    The abstract reports 1,732 survey respondents, while the data section says the questionnaire reached 1,728 Brazilians.

2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 11

  1. 10.1111/pops.2018.39.issue-S1 · DOI
  2. 10.1111/ajps.v63.4 · DOI
  3. 10.1111/ajps.v66.3 · DOI
  4. IBGE, 2016, Pesquisa nacional por Amostra de Domicílios - Síntese de Indicadores 2015
  5. 10.1146/polisci.2019.22.issue-1 · DOI
  6. 10.1111/spc3.v9.2 · DOI
  7. Machado, C., B. Kira, V. Narayanan, B. Kollanyi, and P. N. Howard. 2019. “2019 World Wide Web Conference.San Francisco, USA.
  8. 10.1111/pops.2018.39.issue-S1 · DOI
  9. 10.1111/ajps.v64.3 · DOI
  10. 10.1111/ejpr.v59.2 · DOI
  11. Zechmeister E. J., 2015, The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts, 195

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Areal, J.
Affiliations
University of Mannheim (DE)
Corresponding author
Areal, João
ORCID
Areal, João
Venue
Political Research Exchange
Publisher
Informa UK Limited
Published
2022-09-05
Volume
4
Issue
1
Pages
2117635-2117635
ISSN
2474-736X (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1080/2474736x.2022.2117635
PMC
PMC9484554
OpenAlex
W4294969135
Cited by
22
References
80
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 1
FWCI
10.62
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Political Research Exchange (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • MADOC (University of Mannheim) (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
  • Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (016.Veni.195.159)
  • Dutch Research Council
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Populism, Right-Wing Movements
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Dynamics in Latin America
Keywords
affective polarization, political hostility, ideology, Brazilian politics

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-30.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-30.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

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