Recent advances in the application of predictive coding and active inference models within clinical neuroscience
Open accessAbstract
Research in clinical neuroscience is founded on the idea that a better understanding of brain (dys)function will improve our ability to diagnose and treat neurological and psychiatric disorders. In recent years, neuroscience has converged on the notion that the brain is a 'prediction machine,' in that it actively predicts the sensory input that it will receive if one or another course of action is chosen. These predictions are used to select actions that will (most often, and in the long run) maintain the body within the narrow range of physiological states consistent with survival. This insight has given rise to an area of clinical computational neuroscience research that focuses on characterizing neural circuit architectures that can accomplish these predictive functions, and on how the associated processes may break down or become aberrant within clinical conditions. Here, we provide a brief review of examples of recent work on the application of predictive processing models of brain function to study clinical (psychiatric) disorders, with the aim of highlighting current directions and their potential clinical utility. We offer examples of recent conceptual models, formal mathematical models, and applications of such models in empirical research in clinical populations, with a focus on making this material accessible to clinicians without expertise in computational neuroscience. In doing so, we aim to highlight the potential insights and opportunities that understanding the brain as a prediction machine may offer to clinical research and practice.
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Characteristic behaviours across disorders (such as avoidance in anxiety, compulsions in OCD, or social withdrawal in depression) can be understood as policies that initially reduce volatility or prediction error but become maladaptive when they reinforce overly precise priors or limit access to corrective evidence.
“This means that characteristic behaviours across disorder (such as avoidance in anxiety, compulsions in OCD, or social withdrawal in depression) can be understood as policies that initially reduce volatility or prediction error but become maladaptive when they reinforce overly precise priors or limit access to corrective evidence (51).”
From Predictive coding and neurocomputational psychiatry: a mechanistic framework for understanding mental disorders (2026) · cites this paper as [51]
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The Human AffectomePreprint
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The habenula clock influences response to a stressor
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“…planning, and action in terms of probabilistic inference (Parr et al., 2022), which is applied in various domains ranging from neuroscience (Smith et al., 2020), neuropsychology (Parr et al., 2018), biology (Pio-Lopez et al., 2022) to robotics and artificial intelligence (Lanil-los et al.,…”
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Editorial: Visual mismatch negativity (vMMN): A unique tool in investigating automatic processing
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Predictive processing and body representation
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Individual prediction tendencies do not generalize across modalities
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Relationships and representations of brain structures, connectivity, dynamics and functions
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- Authors
- Smith, R., Badcock, P., & Friston, K. J.
- Affiliations
- Laureate Institute for Brain Research (US)
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Smith, Ryan
- Venue
- Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2020-09-25
- Volume
- 75
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 3-13
- ISSN
- 1323-1316 (ISSN-L)
- 1440-1819
- OpenAlex
- W3082730045
- Cited by
- 174
- References
- 116
- Citations by year
- 2026: 26 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 34 · 2023: 39 · 2022: 33 · 2021: 13
- FWCI
- 2.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- William K. Warren Foundation
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Embodied and Extended Cognition
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Functional Brain Connectivity Studies
- Keywords
- predictive processing, active inference, predictive coding, computational psychiatry, neural circuit architecture, mental illness, neurological disorders
- MeSH terms
- Mental Disorders, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Neurosciences, Computational Biology
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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